I figured for my first post of the new year, I’d open it up to some discussion. I’m going to continue to work on more player profiles, and because this is the slowest time of the baseball season, we’ll probably have more of these open ended discussions over the next few weeks, at least until we get closer to spring training. I have some other things in the pipeline, but I don’t want to jinx it so I’ll keep it quiet for now. So today’s question. Which prospects do you think will end up in Philly at some point this year, and what kind of impact do you see them making?
21 thoughts on “Which prospects contribute in 2008?”
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Phuture Phillies 
I think they will hive Happ a couple more chances to prove himself. He had to pitch in a important game against the Mets, and he wasn’t the only Phillie to pitch one game then go back down. I don’t think all of our pitchers will be able to stay healthy or good, so bringing up Happ seems likely. It will be interesting to see if they give AA guys a chance like they did with Kendrick.
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Mathieson, Happ, Castro, Zagurski, Carpenter, Carrasco all do some pitching for the big club. I think the biggest impact comes from Mathieson, who ends the season in the rotation. Carpenter gets a few starts at end of season. The others are minor contributors, with Happ and Castro spending significant time in middle relief. Jaramillo gets to catch some games as an injury fill-in.
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I don’t think any will really contribute because none are any good and not ready. Mathieson hasn’t ever pitched a good game yet in the majors. Happ can’t throw strikes. How long will it take for Castro to even look like a major league pitcher? Zagurski? C’mon. Carpenter. Maybe in a year or two. i.e. no impact players. If you don’t get it, go here and see what I mean: http://www.soxprospects.com
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Happ, Bisenius, Zagurski, Matheson will all spend time with the Phils, although I’m not sure what kind of impact they will have
I think that Carpenter and either Savage or Willey will get a call up.
I’m also thinking that a speedy outfielder will spend some time as the “designated runner” – Moran, possibly Berry, hopefully not Golson (I’d much rather him play full time in the minors, and if/when he is ready to jump to the Bigs, he does it as a regular player)
Jaramillo should head north with the Phils out of Spring Training, but he’d have to beat out Coste (or they could carry three catchers due to Coste’s ability to play other positions)
In September, we’ll see at least one of the Savery, Outman, Carrasco trio make their debut
– Jeff
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I like Savery’s chances this year. He will get called up later in the season and make a Jered Weaver like impact from 2 yrs ago.
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It’s interesting how we all migrate immediately to the pitching prospects. Its logical since the big club has so many question marks. I’m never comfortable with a guy like Mathieson because of the serious injury. He should be ready but he lost a lot of pitching time. I think we’ll see him in Philly by mid year. Castro, Happ, Zagurski and Bisenius will have to be up for some time but I don’t think they’ll have an impact. If we had a 3rd base prospect who could hit his weight, he’d probably start at 3rd. Ain’t happening because we don’t have one.
Jaramillo should see some significant action. I agree with Jeff O. We need a speedy backup who can handle the Bourne type role. I think Moran is the guy who is nearest.
I don’t think we’ll see Savery, Outman, Carrasco or Carpenter with the club for more than a September call up. I hope I’m wrong.
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Bellman —
Don’t hope you’re wrong If we see these guys before September, it is because other guys are hurt or totally ineffective. If our staff remains healthy, Kendrick repeats his performance of last year, and Moyer and Gordon hold off old father time, we would not expect to rely on pitchers who will start the season in Reading or beyond. If we see a lot of Savery, Outman, Carrasco, or Carpenter, it will because there are big, big problems with the major league staff plus the first line of fill ins (Mathieson, Happ, Castro, Zagurski, Durbin)
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Jaramillo is the only position player with a chance to see time this year and it won’t be unless there’s an injury. However with Marson coming along strong and the dearth of catching these days, Jaramillo might be trade bait for pitching before he ever plays in Philly. As for the pitchers, many could spend short periods of time in Philly. Zagurski and Castro both throw lefthanded as does Happ and that helps their chances. Mathieson needs to pitch and I think its more likely that he’ll stay in the minors all year and pitch to be ready for 2009. Also, he’ll definitely be a reliever, possibly a closer, in the majors because he doesn’t have enough pitches. If Happ has a good spring training, he might get first shot after Eaton gets hurt or Moyer’s arm gets tired. A healthy Bisenius will get a look at some point because he throws hard. The 3 AA guys need to pitch in the monors all year and not be rushed to the majors.
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Jason Jaramillo should get a huge opportunity this season to establish himself. The Phillies need to evaluate him before Marson and the other catching prospects advance to be sure they know what they’re trading when the time comes to make a deal. Meanwhile, Ruiz is a strong starter. Coste is a fan favorite, but he’ll be on a short leash.
Any one of the pitchers mentioned above who has success in Spring Training and/or at the AAA level will get a chance to stick, especially the lefties. Savery might get a call-up when the rosters expand in the Fall, but I think he’ll be better off waiting until ’09.
About Javon Moran: some have posted here that he won’t be back in the Phillies organization in ’08. If anyone has a link to a definitive press release, please post it. If he does stick with the Iron Pigs, he certainly has a shot to play this season for the Phillies in a limited backup role. Then again, Snelling, Watson, Roberson or even TJ Bohn might get the nod ahead of him. Watson is especially intriguing, but he might not stay with the Phillies if he isn’t on the major league roster to start the season.
Since Brad Harman was placed on the 40-man roster, his chances of making an appearance in the Fall as a utility man went up dramatically.
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Ooh, that’s pretty hard. To me, the more difficult question is not who will play, but who will really contribute. I think a lot of guys will play because of injuries and the ineffectiveness of others, but I’m not sure who could be a difference maker. I do guarantee this, however – any pitcher at AA or above who shows signs of being dominant will get promoted quickly. I think the organization is getting ready to harvest pitchers from the farm system and they see the success that the Yankees and Red Sox have had promoting young pitchers.
In relief, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Castro, Bisenius, or Mathieson took a big step forward. With regard to the starters, I think that, after getting knocked around AAA for a little while last year, Happ could easily settle down and become a solid number 4 or 5 guy in the rotation, thus make Moyer’s departure easier to handle. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we saw a lot of Outman this year if he gets his command in check. I don’t expect to see Carrasco at all, except for a possible September call-up. In fact, this year, I would expect to see Carpenter before we see Carrasco.
As for Jaramillo, unless he starts really slugging the ball in spring training, I see no future for him in the organization. He’s not the catcher of now (Ruiz is), he’s not the catcher of the future (Marson is), and he’s not a good hitting catcher that can come off the bench (LaForest, who has a lot of power, or Coste will fill that role). That having been said, he’ll get a lot of time in spring training and if there’s an injury, he may get promoted solely so that they can showcase him for a trade.
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The Iron Pig AAA position lineup will be much stronger than last year’s last place Lynx lineup and should injuries occur to the 25 man roster any of them could get the call to contribute. Nice inventory as Gillick would say. Looks like Jaramillo again will be the only home grown position prospect . Looks like Brennan King 3b, Gookie Dawkins ss, Casey Smith 2b and Andy Tracy 1b will most likely start in the infield. Cervanek could DH and play 3b and 1B. With Val Pascucci, Brendon Watson, P.J.Bohn, and Chris Snelling in the outfield. Jaramillo and LaForest will be the catchers. Though LaForest has been playing some first and third in Mexican winter ball and they have vet Paul Hoover in camp to catch. Any of them might contribute during the season because of injuries at the ML level.
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Roberson sent to Baltimore for cash…
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Bunch of wild-eyed optimists here.
Pitcher wise:
Happ will be up at some point. Zagurski has a good shot at being on the team out of ST. Bisenius is a maybe. Castro might get another call-up, but only in case of injury and only if he shows some ability to get the ball over. The Phils would be foolish to bring up Savery. Carpenter and Outman are highly unlikely unless they have unexpectedly good success early in the year.
Jaramillo might be up in case of injury. Snelling would be the first guy up as an OF replacement – Bohn after that. Not sure about the infield. I doubt Harman’s ready, but since he’s on the 40, maybe he’d get a call to gather pine while Bruntlett started.
As far as actual contribution, Zagurski could contribute. Maybe (big maybe) Happ. Snelling would if called up. That’s about it. The rest would get a taste of water.
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Will comment before reading other posts:
Love to see one of our mystery relievers step forward–Zags, Castro, or Bisenius. I think they are all clouded in doubt, but all have potential to be above average relievers. Same doubt with our mystery starters–Happ and Segovia–but maybe not as much upside for their projected roles.
I left Mathieson out because I think he has special talent–maybe a star pitcher in 2-3 years if healthy. I would trade every guy mentioned in my first paragraph for a guaranteed healthy career for Mathieson, who I see as a young Schilling type, in terms of raw stuff at a young age and competitive makeup.
Best chances of making a significant contribution (all conditional):
-Mathieson, starting around June
-Zagurski, same time frame
-Jaramillo, if injury replacement needed, but watch journeyman Jason Hill too
-Carpenter, my darkhorse as this year’s KK
-Outman, if he turns the corner on commanding his pitches
-Carrasco, same as Outman, but a little more raw and inconsistent last year
-Donald, possible emergency callup at 3B or SS if we have an injury there
For those who follow prospects very closely, are there an Zags-like guys from high A last year? Threshers had several relievers with good numbers–Swindle, Hill, Savage, Willey. Any with major college experience or great command who might do real well in AA?
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Will comment before reading other posts:
Love to see one of our mystery relievers step forward–Zags, Castro, or Bisenius. I think they are all clouded in doubt, but all have potential to be above average relievers. Same doubt with our mystery starters–Happ and Segovia–but maybe not as much upside for their projected roles.
I left Mathieson out because I think he has special talent–maybe a star pitcher in 2-3 years if healthy. I would trade every guy mentioned in my first paragraph for a guaranteed healthy career for Mathieson, who I see as a young Schilling type, in terms of raw stuff at a young age and competitive makeup.
Best chances of making a significant contribution (all conditional):
-Mathieson, starting around June
-Zagurski, same time frame
-Jaramillo, if injury replacement needed, but watch journeyman Jason Hill too
-Carpenter, my darkhorse as this year’s KK
-Outman, if he turns the corner on commanding his pitches
-Carrasco, same as Outman, but a little more raw and inconsistent last year
-Donald, possible emergency callup at 3B or SS if we have an injury there
For those who follow prospects very closely, are there an Zags-like guys from high A last year? Threshers had several relievers with good numbers–Swindle, Hill, Savage, Willey. Any with major college experience or great command who might do real well in AA?
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We gravitate to the pitching prospects simply because there are no other prospects ready to contribute at the Major League level. Jaramillo wont see the show unless an injury happens. Zagurski will fill any middle relief role should that arise, but I think Mathieson has the best chance. That number five spot could be his if he pitches well in Spring Training……Happ and Carrasco are first available after that and unless they pitch well early in AAA, they arent quite ready.
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I think we trade Coste during Spring Training to give Jaramillo a shot as backup catcher. Other than that, I’d agree with most in saying Moran fills the “speedy outfielder” role to sub in for Burrell or Jenkins in the late innings on base or in the field. Zagurski and Bisenius have a good shot to make the team out of ST, but I’m not sold on either of them. I think Happ comes in as a spot starter for injury and has some success, making the Moyer retirement (unless he pitches until he gets AARP) an easy adjustment. No Carrasco, Outman, Savery or Carpenter– not even in September. I think Mathieson is destined for the closer role, but along with Castro, I think they’ll keep him at AAA to get some starter innings. But then again, all of this depends on how healthy we are in Philly. If last year is any indication, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Julian Sampson in July….that was a joke.
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Coste certainly wont be traded because of his versatility for the club….Jaramillo needs everyday at bats which wont come as a backup! I totally agree with you t hat Mathieson seems destined for a closer role…..just not sure when that comes.
Rumor had it that Moran asked for his release…..now with Bourn gone and Roberson gone today he suddenly seems to be that “speed” guy who could fill that late inning pinch runner role down the stretch….
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i dont think savery will get any call anytime soon. he has alot of work to do just as well as everyone else. what about the young guys they got 3-4 years till they get called up. sampson or mattair would be my best guess out of the young bunch
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With the quality of major league catching so so low, with few superstars, and players who would have been backup catchers starting most of the time for their Defense, I really believe Jason Jaramillo will be the 2nd Catcher and go North with the club.
He is also a switch-hitter, and has more pop from the left side. This will develop him as a trade piece for the club.
I think Snelling and Watson if they are retained at AAA will be up when there are outfield injuries.
As for pitchers, Happ, Mathieson, Castro, Zagurski will be seen, and Joe Bisenius, Lincoln Holdzkom, and Travis Blackley all have a shot to take the #12 pitching spot in spring training.
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Did you see Gio Gonzalez was traded to the A’s in the Nick Swisher trade? I think he’ll be pitching in Oakland this year. We’ll get to see what we gave up a 1-4 pitcher with arm problems.
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