I just wanted to address this, since it’s been mentioned a number of times in comments on various posts. When I post an excerpt of an article from BA, from Kevin Goldstein, from Keith Law, or from any other source, you need to remember 2 things before you even read the article. This is one person’s opinion, or in the case of BA, one site’s opinion. That’s it. It’s an opinion. You take time to learn about who is giving the opinion, and then you figure out how much importance it has to you. Keith Law has scouting experience, he goes and sees almost every player he writes about, and in most cases, he’s been seeing them play in person since they were in high school. He doesn’t have a “bias”, and he doesn’t “hate the Phillies”. These sites are not out to get the Phillies, they have no incentive to downgrade or upgrade Carlos Carrasco’s outlook. They are providing opinions. I like to think I follow the minors closely, but I don’t get to see Josh Outman pitch 30 times a season, and even if I did, I don’t have the extensive scouting background of some of these other guys, and I don’t have baselines for comparison to compare a guy like Josh Outman to a guy like Jake McGee. What I try to do here is post as much information as I can find, try to get as many opinions as I can, and then try and maybe find guys who might be ready to break out, based on their peripheral numbers. I have my gut feelings on certain guys, some of whom will be complete busts, and some of whom will break out. Every player who invests time into following the minors feels the same.
Monthly Archives: January 2008
Keith Law’s Top 100
As many of you know, I’m a big fan of Keith’s work, and for those latecomers to the party, Keith did a Q/A on Phillies prospects for the site here a few months ago. Check it out here. He doesn’t pull any punches, he speaks clearly, and more importantly, he backs up his comments with explanations, and was even kind enough to answer questions in the comments section here. Keith has released his rankings of top prospects by position, top 5 prospects by team, and then tomorrow, his Top 100 in the minors, all of which can be found here on his ESPN blog. With 97.3% of ESPN’s site being “Insider content”, you won’t get much, but his coverage, especially come draft time, kind of makes it worthwhile. Unsurprisingly, no Phillies prospects ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. He’s not high on Cardenas at this point because he doesn’t really have a defensive home as of yet, and I’m sure Carrasco, Outman and Savery would be in the 10-20 range for RHP and LHP. His Top 5 for our team is Carrasco, Savery, Drabek, Outman and d’Arnaud.
Update: Keith ranks Carlos Carrasco #53
The Phillies’ system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco’s best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it’s possible to project him as someone who’ll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors.
From his ESPN Chat
Danny(Philly): Hey Keith I know your not a big fan of Cardenas because of a lack of position. Was he still close to making the list?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:36 PM ET ) He wasn’t close, but he’s a guy I’m keeping an open mind on for 2008. If I see more with the bat and/or an improvement defensively, he’ll be on this list next year. Maybe he should have been, but I’m sticking with what I saw.
James (Roxboro, NC): Joe Savery and Kyle Drabek, simply not good enough for the top 100 or do injury history/concerns drop them?
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:35 PM ET ) Drabek is still out with TJ, and I think I only had two guys on my list in that situation, both in the 90s.
Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100
Another friend of the blog, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus put out his Top 100 prospects list today. Carlos Carrasco checked in at #68, while Joe Savery slipped in at #96. You can check out the full list here, and you can ask Goldstein a question in his BP chat today at 1PM eastern.
JM (MD): Everyone seems down on Carlos Carrasco. The fact that he was only 20 last year and reached AA has to count for something, doesn’t it? Will his flaws be ironed out with more innings, or do you see his upside as being limited?
Kevin Goldstein: It does count for something, but so does his stuff and production. He just doesn’t miss a ton of bats, nor have to stuff to project as a big time star. Very good prospect, don’t get me wrong — But I think he’s a No. 3, borderline No. 2 in a perfect world.
Justin (Brno (Czech Republic)): How good will Adrian Cardenas be in the big leagues? Do you think his power will develop into a middle of the order type of bat?
Kevin Goldstein: I think he’ll be an above-average offensive second baseman, but I don’t see his power ceiling going past the 15-20 home runs a year range. Little guy, line-drive bat.
Matt Spencer profile added
Truckin’ along with the profile pages, I’ve added one for Matt Spencer. Just a reminder for those who aren’t familiar, if you use the left side of the page, you’ll find links to prospects in alphabetical order by last name. I’m slowly working on building a dedicated profile page for each player, including statistics, videos, scouting reports and more. If you see the small “profile” link under a player’s name, just click it and you’ll be taken right to his profile page. I’m slowly working on getting a page for every legit prospect. If you’d like to view all of the profiles completed, you can click the “Profile Pages” tag under the features category on the left, or by clicking this link.
Completed profiles so far
Dominic Brown
Adrian Cardenas
Drew Carpenter
Carlos Carrasco
Kyle Drabek
Josh Outman
Julian Sampson
Matt Spencer
Joe Savery
Remember, if you have anything to submit for these guys, whether it be a picture, video, a scouting report, an article, or anything else, please post it in the comments section for their individual page and I’ll make the necessary changes. Thanks.
Could we have gotten Santana?
I’ve gotten a few e-mails asking if we couldn’t have provided a better package for Santana than the Mets came up with. In short, no, but it’s not just the prospects. Santana has a no trade clause, and the only way he’ll waive his NTC is if the team trading for him gives him an extension, probably in the 6 years/$150M range. The Phillies, I don’t believe, would even consider paying any player that much, let alone a pitcher. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, so obviously he’ll help the Mets, but I don’t think it’s panic time yet. Our 1-13 position players stack up and surpass those of the Mets, while they have a pitching advantage. That means it’s going to be a tight race for the East, and Atlanta should be decent, but is a clear third in terms of up and down talent on the 25 man roster. So, onto the prospects..
Mathieson and Drabek updates
From the new organizational report at BA, courtesy of Jim Salisbury
Mathieson, who was picked in the 17th round of the 2002 draft and made eight starts in the majors in 2006, had ulnar nerve transposition surgery in September. The operation was a less serious follow-up to the Tommy John surgery that he had a year earlier.
Mathieson, who turns 24 on Feb. 27, will take part in the full pitching program in spring training but likely will open the season in the minors as he eases into competition. Though he has worked as a starter throughout his career, organization leaders have long believed his power arm could work well in relief. He pitched for Canada at the World Baseball Classic in 2006 and could be a sleeper to contribute out of the bullpen in 2008.
Drabek, a first-rounder in 2006 who was considered by some to have the best arm in that draft, was 5-1, 4.33 at low Class A Lakewood when he began having elbow trouble last May. He had Tommy John surgery in July, and according to farm director Steve Noworyta, “is coming along real well. He’s on schedule, if not a little ahead.”
Drabek is expected to spend most of the season rehabbing in Florida. The Phils would like to see him get on the mound for Rookie-level Gulf Coast League games in August, then be ready to go for instructional league following the 2008 season.
“Even though he’s losing a year, we think he’ll make up that time,” Noworyta said of the 20-year-old Drabek. “Sometimes guys don’t realize what they had until it’s taken away from them. His work ethic has been outstanding. We expect him to come back better than ever.”
Definitely good news on all fronts, though I still think Mathieson has starter potential, it’s a good idea to settle him into the majors as a reliever.
How the Feliz signing affects the 40 man
The Phillies signed Pedro Feliz to a 2 year deal yesterday. As many know, Feliz is a terrible hitter, struggling to post an OB% above .300 and making outs like it’s his job (918 over the last 2 seasons), but he’s also an incredibly good defensive 3B…..one of the very best in baseball. Before the contract was agreed, the Phillies 40 man roster was maxed at 40. When Feliz is added, one guy will have to be removed. There are a few obvious candidates, TJ Bohn and John Ennis leading the list, but this could also signal a Wes Helms trade. Helms had a nightmare of a season last year, both with the bat and the glove, but he’s still signed relatively cheap and only for one year, so you might be able to find a taker. Don’t expect much of a prospect in return, but an interesting hitter would be nice. What this does do is pretty much set the position player side of the 25 man roster, sans a major injury. Non-roster invitees like Golson, Brennan King, Brandon Watson, and Pete LaForest are all likely ticketed for triple A Allentown. The interesting battles will be on the pitching side. With one rotation spot and two or three bullpen spots likely on the line, depending on the health of Adam Eaton and Tom Gordon.
In other news, I’ve added a video of Carlos Carrasco on his profile page, and I also did a page writeup for Julian Sampson as well, complete with a scouting report and his draft video. To date, I’ve completed profile pages for Carrasco, Sampson, Cardenas, Brown, Carpenter, Drabek, and Outman. More to come in the next few days/weeks.
EDIT: > Feliz was a Type B free agent. San Francisco gets a compensation round pick for him, but we don’t lose a pick.
Player profile requests?
I’d like to add a few more player profiles this week. I can either start doing them in alphabetical order, or I can take requests. If you have a particular player you want to see done, let me know. You can find completed profiles by looking to the left side of the page under the player tags…guys with a profile have the small link under their name.
What to expect from Joe Bisenius?
Bisenius is a guy I saw mentioned a bunch in a previous post asking which guys could contribute this year. As we all know, he had a terrible 2007 after a promising 2006. He had a few minor injuries, and his control abandoned him. He still has a hard fastball and slider, and if he can rebound, he could be a nice addition to the Phillies pen, instead of having to resort to re-treads like Antonio Alfonseca and Jose Mesa. Take a look at his key peripherals over the last 4 seasons
2004: 50.1 IP — 2.51 BB/9 — 6.83 K/9 — 0.90 HR/9
2005: 61.0 IP — 5.31 BB/9 — 8.26 K/9 — 0.74 HR/9 — 1.00 GB:FB
2006: 88.2 IP — 3.45 BB/9 — 10.25 K/9 — 0.61 HR/9 — 1.51 GB:FB
2007: 43.0 IP — 6.49 BB/9 — 7.95 K/9 — 1.05 HR/9 — 0.91 GB:FB
Was 2006 a fluke? When I did my Top 30, I looked at these numbers, and because of them I couldn’t justify including him in my list. The fact that he doesn’t get a good amount of ground balls is troubling. His HR rate has never been above average, even in 2006, and his best walk rate was almost 3.5 per 9, not mindblowing stuff from a reliever-exclusive pitching prospect. As I mentioned, he does have good fastball velocity, he does have a good hard slider, but does he have enough to be a valuable reliever? To me, he looks like a 6th inning guy, if he makes it. I’m hoping he does, because as I said, he’s much better than having to dig up old relievers past their sell by date, but I think I’m less optimistic now than I was at this time last year.
What do you think? Will he replicate or better his 2006? Will he struggle again?
The phuturephillies team looks set
Thanks to those who inquired about helping out with the site. I believe our team now includes
andyb; Andy will keep writing on the DSL/VSL prospects
bobev; Bob is our new Lakewood correspondent
clearwaterthreshersnews; Jeff returns as our Clearwater correspondent
bertmurr; Rob comes aboard as our Reading correspondent
gregg; Gregg remains on board and shifts his focus to the Iron Pigs
mikesbphuturephillies; Mike comes on as our dedicated transactions guru
Thanks again, and remember, be kind to our friendly volunteers.
Phuture Phillies 