Phillies select two players in Rule 5 draft

Rule 5 Draft

The Phillies took two players in the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft

Travis Blackley, LHP (From San Francisco)
Lincoln Holdzkom, RHP (From Boston)

Both players have to remain on the MLB roster

AAA Phase

Luke Appert, OF (From Oakland)
Neil Sellers, 2B (From Houston)

These players must remain on the 3A roster all season

The Phillies lost Scott Mitchinson to Oakland. A’s fans coming here for info on Scott, I actually ranked him as our 26th best prospect a few weeks ago. You can read it here.

*Update*

The Phillies think Blackley can compete for the 5th spot in the rotation. Mercy me….

Detailed thoughts below the fold

Before I touch on the players we acquired, I want to touch on the player we lost. I’m not happy about losing Scott Mitchinson. As I’ve detailed in the past, Mitchinson has a good arm, he’s posted really good numbers since signing for the Phillies, but his problem is injuries. He’s rarely been healthy, and because of this, hasn’t made it past Low A Lakewood. He was eligible for this draft because it had been 5 years since his signing, and he debuted in 2003, making 2007 his 5th professional season. The Phillies made an error here though. If he had been placed on the 3A roster before the lockdown date, he’d have only been eligible for the Major League phase of the draft. No team would have taken him in the Major League phase, because he has almost zero shot to remain on a 25 man major league roster. But, because he was kept on the Low A roster, he was taken in the AAA phase, and that’s where he will go. Oakland’s minor league system is not much better than ours, and they’ll have plenty of space for him. My question is, why didn’t we have that space? Our 3A roster was filled with minor league mercenaries, some of whom were released. No room for a kid with a good arm? Why not stash him there?

Now, onto our newly acquired talent. Travis Blackley is, surprise surprise, a Pat Gillick product. He was signed as a free agent out of Australia in 2000 by Seattle. So, not only does he satisfy the “former Gillick players” quota, he’s also another Aussie to add to our collection. Here are some articles that chronicle where Blackley started and what happened along the way;

In 2002, Blackley was ranked the Mariners 7th best prospect. This was the brief report;

Blackley is similar to Craig Anderson, another Mariners lefthander from Australia: His best attributes are his changeup and his command, and he has a solid curveball. He has a higher ceiling because he’s more projectable and throws in the high 80s, while Anderson works in the low 80s. Blackley’s competitive nature has allowed him to handle every challenge thrown his way.

He was a Finalist for the Baseball America player of the year in 2003. Others on that shortlist included Bobby Crosby, Prince Fielder, Zach Greinke, Joe Mauer and Alex Rios. In February of 2004, Baseball America ranked Blackley as the 63rd best prospect in baseball, and the 7th best left handed pitcher in the minors, as well as the Mariners 3rd best prospect. The updated report read like this

Strengths: Blackley expertly mixes four average or better pitches, including the best changeup in the system. He also throws a fastball with natural cutting action, a curveball and a slider. Double-A San Antonio pitching coach Rafael Chaves made an adjustment to Blackley’s release that allow him to boost his fastball up to 88-92 mph.

Weaknesses: Blackley has good command but sometimes gets too cute and winds up issuing more walks than he should. He tends to rush his delivery against lefthanders, which takes away from his stuff. Both of his breaking balls need a little refinement.

The Future: The Mariners refer to him as Jamie Moyer with better stuff. After a year in Triple-A Tacoma, Blackley will be ready to join Moyer in Seattle’s rotation.

Then things started to turn in the other direction. Heading into 2005, Blackley dropped down to the Mariners #6 ranked prospect. Jim Callis said this

Strengths: At his best, Blackley confuses hitters by mixing four pitches and draws comparisons to Mark Buehrle. His changeup is his best pitch, the key to his consistent success against righthanders. He also uses an 87-92 mph fastball with natural cutting action, a curveball and a slider.

Weaknesses: Blackley tried to pitch away from contact in the majors, with disastrous results. He lost his command and his fastball dropped to 82-85 mph, losing separation from his changeup. He needs to find a consistent breaking ball to get lefties out. He does get good spin on his curve, and it was the one pitch he got major league hitters to miss.

This is where things went sour. As with most Mariners pitching prospects over the last 5-6 years, Blackley suffered a major arm injury, tearing his labrum and requiring surgery, which kept him out for all of 2005. That essentially turned the light out on his top 10 prospect status. He made it back in 2006, but his stuff wasn’t very good, as he struck out only 105 while walking 50 in 155 IP. He bounced to the Giants in 2007, but his strikeout rate didn’t improve, as he fanned only 121 in 162 minor league innings, while walking 68. So, that brings us to the present. Do the Phillies see something here? His minor league splits don’t really indicate he’d be a strong LOOGY, as lefties posted a .732 OPS against him, righties an .810 OPS, only a marginal difference, and not LOOGY material. He generated more groundballs than flyballs, but not a dominant ratio. Are the Phillies assuming that the 3rd year back off of labrum surgery will be the charm? I guess.

Now on to Holdzkom. Holdzkom is a big righthander, originally drafted by the Marlins in the 7th round of the 2001 draft. Heading into the 2004 season, Holdzkom was considered the Marlins 10th best prospect, and this was written on him;

Background: Kicked off his Arizona Western CC team for insubordination, Holdzkom spent his first 2 1/2 pro seasons showing flashes of obstinacy. The turning point came in late June, when he and Greensboro manager Steve Phillips had a heated shouting match. Phillips challenged Holdzkom to start living up to his vast talent, which he soon began doing.

Strengths: Holdzkom is physically imposing and can intimidate batters with his mere hulking appearance on the mound. He pitches in the mid-90s and has touched 97 mph with his fastball, which he complements with a hard-breaking curve.

Weaknesses: While Holdzkom appears to have closer stuff, some in the system wonder whether he has the makeup to be anything more than a setup man. Command problems have been a much bigger issue when he’s been asked to close out wins as opposed to pitching the seventh or eighth innings. He can be slow to the plate and needs to improve his pickoff move. He has shown little progress with a changeup.

The Future: A late substitution for fellow hardhead Randall Messenger in the Arizona Fall League, Holdzkom is expected to be added to the 40-man roster for the first time. His career finally on the fast track, he could begin 2004 in Double-A with a good spring.

So the stuff seemed there for him to be a bigtime setup guy, but it obviously never developed. In March of 2006, the Marlins traded him to the Cubs for Todd Wellmeyer, and Jim Callis gave this quick blurb on him;

Holdzkom, a 24-year-old righty, signed as a seventh-round pick out of Arizona Western JC in 2001. He missed all of 2004 following Tommy John surgery, and came back last year to pitch 13 innings between the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and high Class A Jupiter. Holdzkom, who touched 97 mph before the operation, pitched at 90-92 and peaked at 94 last summer. His breaking ball was slurvy and he didn’t have much of a changeup. Holdzkom projects as a setup man and owns a career 3-15, 2.86 record in 110 minor league games (seven starts).

The interesting thing here is that just like Blackley, Holdzkom had a major arm surgery, but his being less serious than labrum surgery. Last winter, Holdzkom was taken in the Rule 5 draft by Houston, then later returned to the Cubs, who released him, after which he was signed by Boston. His splits from 2007 show two interesting things. One, he’s kind of tough to hit, allowing only 30 hits in 43.1 innings at AA. Second, he generated 74 groundballs to only 30 flyballs, which is promising. The bad news is that he also walked 30 in those 43.1 innings, which indicates he still hasn’t mastered anything resembling solid control.

Pat Gillick has always loved the Rule 5 draft, so it’s no surprise he was active. I suppose he didn’t think any of the arms taken ahead of Blackley were worth trading up for. I don’t think either guy is really likely to stick for the big league club, but it’s a decent gamble I guess. Maybe the Phillies see something in their mechanics/approach that they deem fixable, and they’ll give it a shot in spring training. The worst case scenario is both guys are returned, and we’re out $50,000. Not a big loss.

I won’t comment on the guys taken in the AAA phase because I know very little about either guy, and they aren’t really prospects worth writing about. If someone wants to dig up info on them, you can post it here and I’ll add it to this post.

37 thoughts on “Phillies select two players in Rule 5 draft”

  1. Good size and age for a Rule 5 pitcher, both have good H/IP but are very wild. Strikeout rates are so-so. I guess just two more arms to throw into the middle relief mix and see what develops. Blackley a little better against lefties, but doesn’t seem good enough against them to think of him as our LOOGY.

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  2. worst case scenario is we lose 50K? meh, as long as a better choice was left after our pick, it doesnt really matter

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  3. They got Backley because they’re trying to reconstruct Seattle’s 2004 BA top 10 (he’s #6, Snelling’s #7). This trend of getting everyone gillick possibly can from seattle is starting to get a little insane.

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  9. Bad use of a Rule 5? Both could be as useful as the next AAA pickup. You hope for a little more stuff from Blackley, a little more polish from lincoln holdzkom, but hey, if they came with those things they wouldn’t be available as rule 5 picks. Granted, I would have rolled the dice on some different players, but I can’t say i’m disappointed with these two.

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  10. did arz decide to protect D’Antona because he wasn’t taken at all

    i didnt see lubanski’s name anywhere in the drafted list either

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  11. Just looking at Holdzkom’s stats, he’s got a nice GO/AO ratio with a good K/9 rate. Ideal for CBP. Hey, he can’t be any worse in middle relief than anyone else out there.

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  13. Out of today’s developments, I’m most upset that we’ve lost Mitchinson. When he’s healthy he’s put up good numbers, and given the overall weakness of our system, you don’t want to lose someone with that kind of ability (no matter how unlikely it is that he reaches his potential).

    As for our picks: I’m no scout, so I can only go on numbers… but Blackley makes no sense to me. Nothing in his splits suggests he’ll fare better as a reliever. Holdzkom at least, as some have said, keeps the ball on the ground: only 5 HRs allowed in his entire minor league career of 269 IPs, which is certainly impressive (though all 5 were this year).

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  14. Holdzkom also put up good numnbers in the AFL. Does anyone know what his stuff is like?

    At first glance I say that I rather take a shot with this guy then Condrey but then again, Condrey put up good minor league numbers.

    Numbers wise, I think he looks okay. Remember, it’s only the Rule 5. Chances of grabbing an impact player are slim.

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  15. I don’t think that Backley was taken to be a reliever- I think that they expect to be able to send him down to Allentown as a starter and see if they can’t set him straight as a starter (which means they think they can make a deal like they did for Victorino after ST).

    What exactly is a bad use of a Rule V pick? Worst comes to worst, you send him back. Only three players were drafted after we took Backley, and one was by us. Not like we elected to forgo someone else for these picks. Maybe we just picked some live arms that our scouts think can be straightened out. It has happened before (only generally not by us).

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  18. If we offer a guy back, the original team or any team that claims him on waivers if the original team doesn’t want him has to pay the Phillies $25K.

    If they return both guys, the Phils are only out $50K total

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  20. In regards to the AAA players, can’t they be moved up just not down? Or can they not play in the Majors at all?

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  22. We also lost RHP Kenny Fernandez in the AA phase, he played in the DSL last year, kind of an odd choice by the Marlins.

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  23. Yeah I wasn’t expecting them to call him up, just a general question if you took a AAA guy and he did well, could you move him up or do you have to waste him in AAA. Thanks for the confirmaton though.

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  24. Still think Outman is the best bet to be the 5th starter here if Eaton can’t go. Granted only a few innings but Outman out pitched Blackley in the World Cup last month: Blackley/Outman: IP 11/8, H 10/8, ER 2/1, BB 4/2, K 7/10 ERA 1.64/ 1.13. Downright scary to see that in Blackley’s 34.2 innings of pitching in the Majors, he has given up 11 home runs.

    Lincoln Holdskom might be a different story. On MLB TV after the Rule Five Draft was completed he was being described as a “wonderful guy”, “lots of ability”, and finally pitching healthy in Arizona Fall Ball.

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  25. A question about Mitchinson: if the Phils had indeed moved him up to AAA to shield him from the Rule 5 Draft, would he have needed to stay there the whole year?

    Losing him was a glaring error in my opinion. I thought he was a candidate to slide to the bullpen and climb the ladder quickly.

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  26. Bullpen guys can be had and find and they have as many good yrs as bad ones, the few good ones are closers and set up men. Mitchinson profiled as neither. Still it would be better to have him than not, but oh well, I am sure there were some dodger fans saying the same thing about Vic.

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  27. Theres a 1% chance Outman opens the season in Philly. His control is nowhere near good enough.

    On Mitchinson, I think we could have re-assigned him to any level we wanted after the draft, he just had to be on the 3A roster before the draft.

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  28. Yeah, the Blackley pick definitely shocked me a little. His numbers are awful, and he’s got a WHIP of over 2 in the majors! What did Gillick see in this guy that warranted picking him? Bad draft pick, especially when either of the guys we were high on before were still available (to my knowledge).

    Holdzkom is a different story. While his WHIP last year was a little high (1.50+), his ERA was solid. He looks like he might be a middle reliever, and that’s alright. He’s got a little bit of upside, especially compared to Blackley.

    The two guys we took in the triple-a phase look like organizational filler/benchwarmers in the majors.

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  30. Rob,

    I wouldn’t read into that too much. Scary, though, I agree. So much for Eaton being #5!

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  31. Rob, I was just going to mention what Zolecki said in his blog: that “[t]he Phillies think Blackley could compete for the fifth spot in the rotation.”

    Phuturephillies, thanks for answering my question. If Mitchinson could indeed have been moved back to Clearwater or Lakewood, then that’s just sheer carelessness on the part of the Phillies. Nick, I really have no idea what Mitchinson profiled as because he was injured so much, but his peripherals were very good when he did pitch. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t reach the majors within the next few years in at least a bullpen role.

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  33. I finnally figured out why we picked Blackley

    he is married to a playmate, Cole Hamels is married to a playmate, and if we bring in Kris Benson, his wife is a former stripper and a model, having them three in the crowd will really sell the tickets

    HAHAHA

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  34. “We still think he’s on the upswing from [shoulder surgery], and he continues to get better. He has good command, a fringe fastball, good changeup, good breaking ball and a feel for pitching. If he doesn’t end up as a fifth starter, his stuff may allow him to pitch out of the middle.” — Mike Arbuckle on Travis Blackley

    I dunno about you guys, but the one thing that sticks out there is “fringe fastball”. Guys with fringe fastballs typically get rocked in the NL. See Moyer, Jamie.

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  35. not that i’m saying Outman is ready, but when he hit his groove in Lakewood he was really pretty sharp for the last half of the season. It may be more of a confidence/comfort thing that he needs to get himself into- as it is with most pitchers I guess. So I expect if he starts out in Reading it won’t take him long to hit his stride there.

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  36. Outman had better control in the World Cup than did Blackley. Interesting to see Outman and Blackley pitch in spring training. This from BBA:
    The Phillies also selected lefty Travis Blackley from the Giants, just weeks after seeing Blackley pitch for Australia in the World Cup in Taiwan. Blackley pitched well even though his fastball, a low-90s, above-average pitch in his Mariners days, was sitting 84-87 mph. Shoulder surgery has sapped Blackley of much of his velocity, but he still went 10-8, 4.66 for Triple-A Fresno this season.

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  37. Rob —
    Fringe fastball or not, I think we will all be thrilled if he can have a Jamie Moyer type career. It is easy to get too trapped in the radar gun or K/9 view of pitching and discount the guys like Moyer, Silva, and the performance that Kendrick turned in last season. Plus control, which Blackley still needs to show, allowing for spotting the ball in the strike zone with changing speeds and pitch types and deception can go a long way. That said, I think a team needs 3 hard throwers in the rotation to break up the soft tossers and some hard throwing relievers to change the pace when the soft tossers start.

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