Decent. And here’s why I think it’s a decent draft. In the first 10 rounds, the Phillies made more low ceiling picks than high risk/high reward picks. Joe Savery is a good gamble if he can regain his pre injury form, but not everyone is convinced he can do that. d’Arnaud and Mattair are prep prospects with big ceilings, and patience will be needed to see how they develop. Four of the next five picks, however, represent low ceiling, affordable guys. The Phillies took Spencer, Mach, Taylor, Rizzotti and Brummett in rounds 3-7, and of that group, the only guy with a high ceiling is Taylor, and he’s always been the “tools are there, just not the results” guy. Mach and Brummett signed for well below slot, the others right around slot. To make matters worse, the Phillies finished the first 10 rounds with 3 more low ceiling college guys, Chapman, Kissock, and Rocchio. The problem with this, is that the Phillies only took 3 potential above average starting players with their first 10 picks, and they were the first 3 guys taken. The guy with the next highest ceiling is Brandon Workman, and he’ll be at Texas for 3 years.
Reader/commenter SteveB did the math I was planning to do (thanks again) and showed the bonus amounts for teams in the first 10 rounds. The key here is to subtract the first pick in the draft for each team, since the teams at the top are going to be forking over huge bonus amounts for the top 5 picks. If you remove everyone’s top pick, you get to see what the teams did where it takes more creativity. Here are the top 5, then the Phillies, then the bottom 5, in terms of bonus dollars spent on picks in rounds 1b-10
1. Washington: $5.469M
2. San Diego: $4.503M
3. New York Yankees: $4.082M
4. Detroit: $3.725M
5. Toronto: $3.523M
17. Philadelphia: $1.939M
26. Chicago White Sox: $1.244M
27. Milwaukee: $1.177M
28. Minnesota: $1.087M
29. Cleveland: $696K
30. Houston: $536K
This, to me, is kind of disturbing for a number of reasons. First, we have a major league payroll of $95M, we’re not a small market team who doesn’t have funds to be able to afford to draft premium talent. I’m not saying we have to spend 7M on Rick Porcello, or sign 5 bonus babies and give them $1M each, but come on. Brummett may turn into a nice #4 starter, but we took a college senior in the 7th round and gave him $25,000 to sign, tied for the lowest bonus given in the round. The Red Sox took a guy named David Mailman, a promising prep 1B prospect and signed him for $500,000. I’m not saying we need to sign that guy, but were there no better players available in that range? The second disturbing thing about these figures is the team at the top. Washington has the weakest major league roster in baseball, based on pure talent, and the weakest farm system in baseball, top to bottom, but they had an infinitely better draft than we did this year. They got a solid pitcher up top, but signed another promising arm in Josh Smoker (a guy I lobbied for at 19) and signed Jack McGeary away from Stanford, kind of. The Nationals realize that building through free agency is a lot more costly than building through the draft, and they spent the money. It should also be noted that the Nationals are slowly establishing themselves in Latin America as well, another area where the Phillies are a bit behind the curve. That’s bad news for the Phillies, because it means an already tough division is going to get tougher. The Marlins are the only team in the division that spent less than the Phillies, checking in at $1.428M. The Mets spent $3.328M in their first 10 picks and didn’t even have a first round pick, and they are one of the biggest spenders in baseball in Latin America.
Now, the positives. We did sign Julian Sampson, and to me, this is the only saving grace, at this point. Sampson is the exact type of guy they should be targeting in the draft, but they should be taking and signing 5 guys like him every year. Not every prospect is going to pan out, in fact, most of them don’t pan out at all, which is why you need strength in numbers. A guy like Chris Kissock or Chance Chapman, at best, has the ceiling of a #4 starter or 7th inning reliever. You know that when you draft them, you understand the upside. Now, they could really flip the switch, learn a new pitch, or make an adjustment which greatly increases their command, and you might be able to upgrade them to a #3 starter or a setup/closer type reliever, but still, the ceiling is limited. A guy like Sampson has much more potential based on where he is now and where he can go. Those are the guys you need to fill your system with. The Jiwan James signing is nice, Cedric Johnson is a good effort, though he seems like a huge question mark going forward, it’s nice to have more high ceiling athletes in the system.
In the last few days, we’ve seen the comments here like “it’s too early to know how the draft will work out”, and that’s certainly true. Chris Kissock could turn into the next Rollie Fingers, Tyson Brummett could turn into the next Brad Radke, and Matt Spencer could turn into the next Lance Berkman, but the odds of those things happening are very remote. You can look at a player’s skill set, look at his track record, and have a general idea of what to expect. You won’t know for 2-3 years what a player is likely to become, and in many cases, you won’t even know at that point. But you can look at who was picked where, what else was available, and what other teams did and evaluate the decisions made at the time. Baseball is unpredictable, so you don’t know what will happen, but you can give first impressions, and that’s really all this is about.
The bottom line is, the Phillies are still drafting like a small market team, while taking one or two chances to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle. The goal should be to be as aggressive as possible in the first 10 rounds, fill your system with as much high end talent as possible, and hope to win the numbers game and get a few upper echelon prospects out of each draft. Unfortunately, looking at this year’s draft, I don’t see that as being the Phillies strategy, and it’s kind of disappointing. Time will tell.
Phuture Phillies 
Amen brother – amen.
In my line of business I work with some venture capitalists – the guys that put up the money for early stage companies. A good/honest VC will tell you that, plain and simple, it’s a numbers game. You spread your money around to the companies with the highest ceilings – but you have to play the quantity game as well. They’ll tell you that if they “hit” one out of ten they are doing just fine, as the “one” more than pays off for the other nine, etc. To tell you the truth I don’t see it that much different here. If you are getting a college kid, for the most part you’re gonna get what you see. For the high potential HS kids the past is littered with huge flameouts (Brien Taylor – Come on Down!!) so the fact is – it’s not an exact science. You have to realize that and play the risks but offset the risks with quantity.
All this is why, at the end of the day, a player like Greg Golson I am fine with them taking a run at, as long as you don’t pick a Greg Golson and then select nine other Kevin Stockers around him – getting the “safe” guys in case the “risky” guy doesn’t pan out. You know what that logic gets you??
Mediocrity. And if you look up the word medicority in the dictionary – yup, you’ll see that shining red Phillies logo.
PhuturePhillie – thanks again for the effort on this site!!
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I think your evaluation was pretty much right on, James,
and I agree with what SteveB had to say too. The Phillies
have a hard time thinking big. “Safety first” is their motto…
unless they’re being utterly foolish…
Here come the Gnats! I like the way they are going about
their business.
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you are much higher on mattair and d’arnaud than i am, but you rate the draft as only decent.
imagine where i am.
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The Phillies clearly have a budget for the draft and hold Arby/Wolever to it. This is ok if the budget is reasonable. When Wade was trying to reload the system with young talent we were spending $6+mill in drafts and international signings with some regularity. Floyd and Burrell cost that much alone and one year we lost our #1 pick they spent about $2 mill on the ill-fated Koreans.
Someone on Phillyphans made the observation that the Phillies draft spending comes out almost exactly on slot, with guys like Sampson, Jiwan James making up for the low bonus to Mach and the non-signing of Workman. This may well be exactly right. Monty may well have taken Selig’s slot numbers and added a small amount for minimal cost signings for the draft spots after the expiration of the slot, at something like $113K.
As said above, this is all incredibly short-sighted for a team with a $95 mill major league salary budget that is in need of a talent infusion to catch the two teams ahead of them. This is a change in philosophy that seemed to begin during the last few Wade years, when it seemed that Ed had a fixed budget and shifted $ from the development budget to the major league salary budget in a push to win now.
But skimping on bonuses also seems to match the old-line philosophy of a lot of guys on the Phillies baseball-side of management. Young kids who haven’t paid their dues are only entitled to so much. Better that a guy like AGon or Perez who have put in their time get $mill for their worthless big-league contribution, than that a wet-behind-the-ears-uppity-snotty 2nd rounder with oceans of talent get the cash. Dallas Green was a very marginal player. He identifies much more with the guys like Perez, Fasano, AGon, Nunez, Franklin. They deserve the $.
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It isn’t just the management. The root of most every problem with the Phillies, or any other team in this city, goes back to the fans. The phrase “building through the draft” is like a dirty word with this fan base. If you mention it on WIP, it elicits near-Pavlovian accusations of cheapness and even deliberate sabotage, almost without fail. Management has to be smart enough to ignore that crap, and if it doesn’t, its responsible for its failure to do so. But there’s a reason why there’s such a broad trend of shortsightedness that’s run, more often than not, through the recent histories of all four of our teams.
The model team for the sports fans and the talking heads in this city is the 1997 Marlins. That’s just the way it is.
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But the thing is, this team doesn’t have to cut payroll by 30 million to invest in the draft. We’re talking about spending an extra 2-3 million per year. You don’t have to “sell” anything to the fans, you just invest the 3M and add the top talent into the system.
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Your commenatary seems ok since I agree that aftet the first several picks, we could/should have been more selective for guys with possible high ceilings.
That said, good fortune did shine on our draft insofar as we got several JrCol and HS picks…espectially pitchers…in the later rounds who actually signed.
So…IMO we can watch thos “extra” signees through the minors for the next 3-4 seasons…and, if luck holds, two or three of them plus Savery could make this a very good draft when we add in the first several choices all of whom look good so far.
So…give them a grade of from B to A, depending on time and progress in the farm system.
I suspect that tough-sign Workman was purposely chosen in the 3rd round (which many thought was early for him) so if he didn’t sign the Phils would get that comp pick in ’08s draft.
PG seems much more of an effective maneuverer in drafting (and otherwise) than Wade, resulting in extra picks each season. Props to him.
In 3 yearsw we might have our farm system rated about 6-10 since “smart” drafting will prevail only limited by Monty’s allowaqnces. PG is doing the best he can with the limitations imposed.
And, since the attendance has gone UP so well, there MIGHT bne an inclination to allow more $$$ for drafting…tho it seems their Latin signees are performing well in ther VSL and DSL. If we can get 3 pitchers from the Latin Lgs along w 2-3 position players coming to the USA each season to supplement our draft, the future seems good when combined w the present makeup of the big club.
So…grade it B- to A…..to wait ’til ’09 or ’10 to confirm…
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phuturephillies – Great summary and dead on about spending an additional $2-$3 million would make for a huge improvement on the caliber of prospects drafted.
What is so frustrating is that this team is going to attract over 3 million in attendance this year and that additional revenue is available without cutting back the MLB payroll. I loathe the Phils’ ownership because their primary goal is to make a profit margin and putting out a competitive product is the only necessary component. Not winning a championship.
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Fantastic Post. The best post I have ever read on the Phillies ever.
The “D” word I would use instead of “decent”, would be “distressing”. When you think the 3 million allocated to Barajas when added to our draft would make us #2 on th list you have to cry.
With the loss of a real commisioner of baseball, collusion is at the core here. The ownership is not only mag-pieing MLB”s collusion guidelines, they are paying below slot in many cases. Wow. And all of this while the Bank is selling out, creating 10s of millions of dollars of more revenue.
I thought that Gillick really had more of a say with the gang of seven inherited wealth owners, and it seems that he has to just pick his spots when he makes a move.
This is not a way for the owners to pay-back the fans support.
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Distressing is too strong. Decent or actually a bit better than decent seem appropriate — a B to B+. Arby/Wolever clearly operating under serious financial restraints, but seem to have done well under the circumstances. We didn’t sign our top #3 pick, but still signed 6 in the first 5 rounds, which is better than normal for us. I didn’t like all the HS seniors and the 5th-year senior in top 10, but the early results indicate some hope for the guys we picked there. Mach and Chapman, who are the two poster boys for cheap, early bonuses have started out very well. We have seen this before, with old draftees doing well in short season ball and flaming out before they reach AA, but Mach’s numbers are really good and Chapman could well continue as an effective reliever, so it is certainly too soon to write them off as no value for the picks. Not signing Workman is disappointing, but we likely do as well with the makeup pick next year, although we will be flying without a safety net.
The later round HS signees save the draft in my view. Jiwan James is good and I really like Sampson a lot. More than Workman. Kyle Slate also a very nice sign. I am not as thrilled with Johnson, given all his knee injuries, but better to have him than not.
This draft is among the better Phillies drafts of past 5. I would say 3rd best.
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“The later round HS signees save the draft in my view. Jiwan James is good and I really like Sampson a lot. More than Workman. Kyle Slate also a very nice sign.”
signing 3 HS guys as fliers saves the draft? they didn’t get lars anderson. they didn’t get carmen angellini. they didn’t get matt harvey. they didn’t get jack mcgeary.
what they did was sign 3 HS athletes who might see lakewood by 2009, but probobly won’t get higher than clearwater in their professional career. yes, james, slate, and sampson have reasonably high upsides, and yes, they are young and projectable, but these aren’t elite athletes, and they aren’t top prospects who will be in the majors in september of 09.
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You don’t draft HS talent, even the very best HS talent, with the view that it will be in the majors 2 years later. These guys aren’t ‘fliers’ because they are low on talent, they wer ‘fliers’ because of iffy signability and the likelihood that they were signed within our budget because Workman not signed. If they stay healthy they are good enough that I would expect two of them if not 3 to get to AA and one to be a major leaguer. Sampson is a Kendrick/Mathieson level talent.
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if the phillies could sign them, you can be fairly sure that they didn;’t drop because of signability.
and sampson is not a mathieson level talent. mathieson had a mid to upper 90s fastball, plus a pretty good slider before he was injured. he may very well be a better pitcher, but mathieson was another level of prospect.
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Another reason I’m not super high on this draft (again, I don’t really know these guys from Adam, only what I read) but man, can’t ONE of these college guys sign, hit the GCL or NYP league and stand out from the crowd? Yes, I go through the box scores of all the Phils’ minor league teams ever day (doesn’t take long to eyeball Ottawa obviously) but seeing the college guys hitting .250 or less, no power, etc. I don’t know – know there are tons of reasons that may be, may not be a real barometer, but come on lads – step it up for me! Make me feel good!
I’m not sure – but I’ve always understood major college ball to be approximately high A to Double A (I may have misread that somewhere) so to see guys from Stanford, etc. sucking wind – well kinda takes the wind out of the draft.
Know it’s a long race in the minors – but how about someone jmping out early for us long suffering Phils fans!!
And yes – I’m writing this when it’s 11-6 bad guys in the big club game, so slightly bitter:)
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Major college baseball is definitely not at the AA level. Most of the guys on even major college teams aren’t good enough to even be drafted. Those that are good enough to be drafted, typically start in short season, sometimes low A or even high A. The number of new major college draftees who make it to AA during their draft year is very small.
And Mach certainly jumped out early. He’s hitting .306/.394/,466/,860 now, which is a significant fall off from his fast start.
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On Mathieson, he was throwing in the mid-high 80’s as a high school senior, he wasn’t in the mid 90’s. The Phillies cleaned up his mechanics and he added velocity.
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Again I agree with Steve’s comments above. With very
few exceptions, the stats produced by this year’s draftees
in both the NYP and GCL are very unimpressive. I know
there is precedent for slow starters in pro ball, so I’m of
course hopeful for next year. But for this year, they don’t
look so hot. Hence very difficult to justify a B or better
grade for them IMO.
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