The dust has settled a bit, there are a few big unknowns remaining. How would you rate or grade this draft? You can give two assessments;
1. We sign no one else
2. We sign either Workman, Sampson, Moncrief, etc etc, or we sign a combination of them.
Feel free to explain your answers. It’s impossible to really know how things will shake out for 3 or 4 years, but we can assess what we know so far.
Phuture Phillies 
Grade B-
I like the Savery pick. The Phillies have been down this road before picking guys with previous injuries and it’s worked out okay (see: Hamels, Cole). Prior to his injury he was projected to be one of the top 2 picks in this year’s draft. If he can regain that form then we got a steal.
I think Mattair and Mach have nice upside, but I’m 50/50 on if either will materialize. Mach has looked pretty good so far.
As an Oral Roberts University alumus, I was trilled to see Chance Chapman selected by the Phils. He’s pitched really well thus far for Williamsport, but the upper levels should be a test. Thankfully ORU has a good baseball program and they schedule great competition, so he has faced upper echelon players and done well.
I’m sure I’m missing some other guys, and my analysis is not nearly as good as others, so I’m looking forward to reading what everyone else has to say.
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As things stand, I think we have a rather mediocre, as in average, draft. I think Savery is a decent gamble on talent with a towards end of first round pick and also like the D’Arnaud and Mattair picks. The first, sandwich, and 2nd round picks usually are about 80% of a drafts value, unless the team is willing to go over slot. So, I guess I should be reasonably happy if I like the first 3 picks and they are all signed and off to at least respectable starts. For a good draft though, you need another handful of guys that have a decent chance to be solid prospects. I wasn’t thrilled with our 3rd round picks and one of them isn’t even signed. After that it is too many college guys and especially too many college seniors in the early rounds. D’Arnaud and Mattair have been a little light on offense, but close enough to .700 OPS that there is reason to hope they will develop into solid prospects. Mach has started off great, but not really sure what to make of him. Spencer has started to hit, Taylor hasn’t. Although he hasn’t put up at all good numbers, it is encouraging that Jiwan James is signed.
If we sign two more of the HS guys you list, this would be a good draft. If we sign 3 HS guys, and I like your 3 rather than Johnson, then it is a very good draft. If we sign only two of your guys, I want Workman to be the miss, since we get that pick back next year.
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As of now, I would give this draft a B-. They made some nice selections in Savery, Mattair, and the catcher (d’arnald?). They took chances on a few high schoolers, and stayed safe taking good college players as well (mach, chapman).
If they are able to sign one of the three top high school picks, it give this draft a B, if they sign two or more, it moves up to a B+.
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I believe it’s way too early to rate this draft. Actually, it’s nearly impossible.
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this was not the type of draft that you hang your hat on as a scouting director. this is the type of draft where you must have absolute confidence in your organization.
you must have absolute confidence in your doctors to draft joe savery. you must have absolute confidence in your hitting coaches to draft michael taylor, travis mattair, and travis d’arnaud. you must have absolute confidence in your scouts to draft 4th and 5th year seniors in the first 10 rounds.
i don’t much like mattair, although i recognize his value at the point in the draft where he was selected. i don’t much like d’arnaud, as i felt that lucroy was a better overall catcher. i don’t much like taylor, spencer, or mach, but i think mach could create the potential for an interesting trade next year.
overall, it’s a C in my book regardless of whether they sign workman and sampson.
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Savery is a steal. He would have been a top 10 pick if healthy. D’Arnaud is rated very highly with a great arm and great release. Liberthal-type build, but Lieby is still in the majors. Mattair could be Scott Rolen some day. He has the body and can field and hit. He was a high school SS.
Workman has a ride to Texas, so he can’t be too bad. Mach is tearing it up, but he’s 22 already and will be 23 next season.
The problem with the Phillies is their budget is so weak, they have to draft a lot of college guys, especially seniors. On the other hand, since we lost so many draft picks for singing guys like Jim Thome, etc., as free agents, we needed to replenish the system and college pitchers help replenish that.
Taylor and Preston should go to Clearwater next year and jump Lakewood. Same with Rizzotti. Savery should go to Lakewood soon, finish out the season and then start at Reading. Randy Wolf started at Batavia after the draft and began the next season at Reading if I’m not mistaken.
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Always a cynic, eh Walt? I put the disclaimer in the post that we won’t know for 3 years how it turned out. But everyone does overviews of the draft at the end of the summer. It’s perfectly okay to say how you feel about a draft at first blush, and you can always change your mind later.
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How about we sign Workman, Sampson, Montcrief, Johnson, Mahler and Vaughn (and stick our tongue out at Bud Selig) and call it a B+. Or do nothing, pretend that Savery makes it a B- when it’s really probably a C.
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I can’t help being a cynic, especialy when there’s been no playoff appearances in 14 years. I don’t understand drafting high school players early for 2012-2013 when more pressing needs are in the bullpen. I still se no plan for the ‘pen, and now relievers are getting expensive in the market. The average minor league budget for all MLB teams is in the 24 million range. If you can find the Phillies minor league budget, it would be easier to score their draft. Signed, Diogenes
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I really do not know enough about the players they drafted (or how to rate these guys coming out of HS or college) to know if they did well or not. The baseball draft is such a crap shoot that we won’t know for several years if they did well or not. In the NBA, a great player virtually never slips past the middle of the first round (top 15 picks), but in baseball, a 5th round pick can become the next Willie Stargell (Ryan Howard), a 13th round pick can become the greatest hitter since Ted Williams (Albert Pujols), and 58th round pick made as a favor to someone’s friend can become the greatest hitting catcher of all time (Mike Piazza). So we’ll give it time and see. I do, however, like that the Phils are at least attempting to take players with high upsides.
But, anyway, here are my overall draft sentiments, which have nothing to do with this particular draft.
1. I cannot, for the life of me, understand why every team in major league baseball does not put way, way, way more time and money into the draft and into draft picks. Yes, Bud Selig won’t like it (excuse me, but %$#^ him, he doesn’t pay the rent), but, from a pure cost/benefit standpoint, $8 million that can be used to pay a mediocre 4th or 5th starter at the major league level, is much better spent on player development. The Marlins prove this over, and over and over again.
2. Baseball should allow teams to deal draft picks. I know uncle Bud doesn’t like this because it encourages bidding wars, but if that’s a problem, then limit which picks can be dealt (perhaps only 1-3 round picks, perhaps only one pick per year). Doing this will generate more interest in baseball (and the draft) and will allow the more strapped teams to improve at a faster clip. And how cool would it be to see that the Phils or some other team traded for a top 5 pick in the draft – this site would be lit up like a Christmas tree!
3. Over the last 6-8 years the Phillies have, it seems to me, a pretty interesting (and, weird, if you ask me), history with their draft picks. Let’s face it, the Phils system has not been deep with talent (admittedly, this seems to be changing a bit over the last 2-3 years – there does seem to be more talent, particularly at the lower to mid levels) – it’s not like the Marlins, Devil Rays, or Braves, where, every year, there’s a nice group of very talented young players that the team can just plug into any gap that exists. Still, the flip side of the lack of depth has been that the team has produced a significant number of true stars. Utley, Howard, Hamels and Rollins all have HOF potential (all won’t make it, but these are all superb players) – let’s give some credit where credit is due – they got it right with these guys.
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I emailed Jim Callis regarding the Phillies signing Workman and Sampson and his reply was that he thinks they will get done by the deadline.
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Well, obviously we won’t know until a few years from now, but I’m going to go with the following criterion: A successful draft will (IMO) yield 2-3 solid major leaguers as well as some quality organiztional fodder. Given that the opposition has yet to score on Savery, and that he hasn’t even given up more than one hit per outing, they may have to change the name of the Cole Hamels Award to the Joe Savery Award.
Okay, seriously now.
As long as Savery’s health isn’t an issue (and for Bill Conlin’s sake, let’s hope it’s not), he should be a solid major league. If Mattair or D’Arnaud develop properly (and their struggles aren’t concerning me, especially given that they are both just out of high school, and their defense has appeared solid), then this draft would be a solid B.
Now for the other guys, Mach has cooled off a bit, but is still raking the ball pretty good – he could be a Jason Michaels-type hitter. Chapman, Bennett and Diekman are all putting up solid numbers (WHIP all around 1.10), even if their w-l record isn’t great. Some guys have bust potential (Taylor and Andino), but other guys (Rizzotti, Bolt) seem to be good filler type guys. Spencer has put up some interesting power numbers. If any of these guys develop into MLB players, it could be a B+ draft.
As it is now, I’m going with a B-, which seems about right
– Jeff
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C+ If none of the three are signed
B- If one is signed
B If two are signed
B+ If all three are signed
From a cost/benefit perspective, signing at least two of these picks is a no brainer. There’s no guarentee of success, especially with HS players, but thats all the more reason to stockpile talent. For less than a million dollars, the Phillies could improve the overall standing of their farm system.
Listen, I like the Savery pick, but he’s no ace. The Phillies signed some decent major league prospects, but their draft lacks stars, and Star quality=trade value. The relatively high ceilings on Workman and Sampson make their signings even more critical. Within two years, they’d give us trade flexibility, and within four, we could have a starter or two.
Savery should continue in Lakewood, and start next season in Reading. I know he’s “focusing on pitching”, but he should get used to swinging a wooden bat. Quality left handed pitching is hard to come by, but his swing impresses me as much as his arm. If injuries derail his pitching career, I think he could play right field for us within a couple years. I don’t love the idea of taking a non#1 starter in the first round, but his offensive ability serves as some insurance.
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I was in Orlando recently on business and got to see the GCL Phillies play. The guy I was most impressed by, who really didn’t look like he belonged down at this level, was the 1B Bolt. A very mature 21 y/o. He was a 15th rounder. I think he went 0 ‘fer that day, but hit 3 of his AB’s to the warning track. I asked a couple of scouts there and was told he hits like this daily but just doesn’t get the “breaks”.
X0gfog said recently that he might have to depart back to the Air Force, but I read in one article that he has been cleared for the season to stay. Sounds like great PR for both the AF and for the Phillies to keep this guy playing. He is very athletic and extremely fit, seems to hustle and pick up the team during their recent losing stretch. His stats all 4 yrs at Air Force were very good in a pretty tough conference.
Wonder why he wasn’t in Williamsport this season. Maybe to ensure game time. Watch this guy. 15th round could be a great deal, as I heard Milw and KC were going to take him much earlier, but got cold feet on the military deal.
Alex
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I was wondering about the Air Force thing too with Bolt. I’m assuming he has a commitment to the Military, but I wonder if they might reduce it – it’s not unprecedented.
– Jeff
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I asked Jim Callis about Workman and Sampson again and he answered again:
Danny(Philly): Have you heard anything about Brandon Workman and Julian Sampson in terms of signing with the Phillies?
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:13 PM ET ) From what I’ve heard, I believe the Phillies will sign both of them. I think we’re going to see as many (if not more) above-slot deals this year as there were in 2006. We just may not find out about any of them until next Wednesday.
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Jim Callis has it right most of the time. I hope this is one of them. Even if we just get one done, it’d be better than none at this point.
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Signing Workman (I really like this guy!) would make this a B plus deraft; w/o him, it’s a solid B.
Those who look for miracles can look elsewhere; the moraculous are the first 10 or so choices. Thereafter, it depends on the competency of the scouting department…..AND what you will spend, whether you think that the slot aims are to be taken into account, and, mof course your position.
The Phils were able to get a couple of additional early draft choices…and IMO they did well.
I like: our HS catcher, our HS 3rd baseman; our College lefty pitcher; our “chance” pick of Mach if they can find a position for him (LF?); the signing of Dieckman, etc. Plus a bunch of HS BIG guys to seek out the best hard throwers who can learn how to pitch.
Considering ONLY the draft is only one of two bows to the tune: the active signings of Latin Americans plus a few Aussies should be added in., It seems we’re doing well in thise two venues.
All in all, I tend to be optimiistic…certainly moreso than under the Wade regime.
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It is hard to evaluate all the Phils first and second year players in game conditions . For example, between Williamsport and the GCL Phillies they have 8 catchers. How do they get enough playing time to evaluate them in game conditions. They should add another rookie level team like the Cards. They have teams at Batavia in the NY-Penn, Johnson City in the Appalachian and the GCL Cards. That being said this draft so far has not produced any talent yet to grade any of them as locks to play at CBP except Savery. The 06 draft appears that it will be more productive for future ML talent: Cardenas, Carpenter, Donald, Myers, Berry, Brown, plus Dubee who has already been used for ML trade bait and Drabek with TJ.
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Upon further review we can not be pleased so far with this years draft results. Only three players were selected from Williamsport to play in the NY-Penn All Star game: pitchers Aussie Drew Naylor, and Chance Chapman plus infielder Tyler Mach. Even Chapman and Mach are a bit old for short season. If the GCL had an All Star game probably no one would have been selected from the GCL Phils. They have no one wo qualifies in the top 37 in batting average and no pitcher who qualifies in the top 25 in ERA. Karl Bolt is second in home runs with 7 but is hitting only .223. Let’s hope they are all late bloomers.
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Ok so we just acquired Russell Branyan for CASH?!! So we have enugh money for this “stud” but not enough to cough up for a HS pitcher. OH THE PAIN!!! IF we DO NOT sign either Workman or Sampson then this is a C draft.
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Will TJ Warren be returning for spring training?
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