Ok, here it is. We’ve debated this in other posts, let’s have the final debate here and not carry it into other discussions. I went back and looked at every draft from 1990 to 2004, 15 years worth of drafts, to evaluate who was the “best” and “worst” at drafting pitching over that period. I looked at only the first round (and supplemental first round), because that seemed to be the focus of Conlin’s claims. I didn’t include 2005-2007, because it’s still way too early to know which of those guys is going to pan out/get injured/recover from injury. I didn’t go past 1990 for the sake of time, but we can always re-visit that at some point. So, here are the guys, broken down by team, aligned by division. Note, expansion teams will have a few less entries because of fewer drafts.
Monthly Archives: July 2007
Jim Callis with a quick Phillies tidbit
In his chat on ESPN.com today, he said this
Danny (Philly): Brandon Workman-Phillies or Texas?
Jim Callis: (2:51 PM ET ) The Phillies seem to be lying in the weeds on a number of players, so this could be a case where Workman is going to get over slot but they’re waiting to announce the deal.
You’d have to think the guys we’re “laying in the weeds on” would be Workman, Sampson and Moncrief. Hopefully 2 of the 3 get finished before the deadline.
2007 Draftees Update
Before we look at some of our draftees, I wanted to give everyone a heads up. Yesterday’s Bill Conlin post has prompted some great discussion. I feel like I should clarify a few things. I do stand by my description of Bill. He is an old, angry, bitter man. Just take a look at some of the responses he sent back to people who e-mailed him….what kind of professionalism is that? The reason I brought up the article yesterday is because it was focusing on Kyle Drabek, and failed Phillies pitching prospects. Drabek was unfairly labeled as being “finished” and tossed in the trash bin with guys like Pat Combs, and I felt that was grossly unfair. Conlin had an idea, he spouted off about it, but I have a feeling he didn’t even bother to look up the facts. So, over the next few days, I’m going to go through the first round of the June draft for every MLB team over the last 35 years and take a look at the fate of the pitchers taken first by their teams. Then we’ll see how “bad” the Phillies track record really is. And one more note; I don’t really write things just to get people to come here. I don’t have any ads on my site, I don’t make a dime off of this, I only do it because it’s fun. Over the last 4 months, I’ve been averaging about 2,000 hits a day. If someone links to me on another board, I get a few more, but I rarely even look at it. I enjoy writing about the Phillies minor leagues, I say my piece, and I’m grateful for those who come and read. However, I don’t try to create controversy to get more hits, and I’m not trying to sell anything, I just speak my opinion.
Now, let’s look at the performance of a few of our draftees…
Bill Conlin is a bitter, angry old man
In case you haven’t read Bill1Chair’s latest nugget of goodness, you can find it here. As Bill often tends to do, he exaggerates and sensationalizes things to try and sound like a voice of authority, when in reality, he really provides very few facts and even less context. Here is the money excerpt from his latest piece, where he basically says taking Kyle Drabek was a mistake;
Drabek became the latest first-round draft pick to join an ill-starred list of can’t-miss righthanders who became damaged goods early in their Phillies careers and never amounted to much.
The list includes Roy Thomas (1971, No. 6 pick overall), Brad Brink (1986, No. 7 overall), Tyler Green (1991, No. 10 overall) and, now, Drabek (2006, No. 18 overall.) It turned out Thomas and Brink were injured before their signings. Green had been shut down in both high school and college. I am tempted to add Brett Myers (1999, No. 12 overall) to the list, but this was the first arm injury of his career and the jury is still out on the long-term implications of history’s longest-running shoulder “strain.” Lefthander Cole Hamels (2002, No. 17 overall) had back issues in the minors, but does a rigorous daily program that has kept him healthy as a major leaguer.
Bill attempts to paint the Phillies as incompetent because we’ve drafted 3 (4 if you count Drabek) guys who had major arm trouble in the low minors, over a 35 year time period. That’s right….4 guys in 35 years, considering the position and the unstable nature of amateur talent, and Bill is convinced the Phillies do no leg work on their draft picks. He somehow tries to sneak Brett Myers into the conversation, even though Myers hasn’t been hurt at all up until this year. Also, if you notice, he’s including Drabek in the same sentence that concludes with “never amounted to much”…do you think he knows that the recovery rate from TJ is high? Wanna see an organization that can’t draft pitching? Check out Pittsburgh over the last 10 years. Jon Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett, Brad Lincoln and Bryan Bullington were all first round picks who would up with major arm problems requiring surgery, and all were picked within a 4-5 year span.
This type of irresponsible journalism isn’t new, especially from Conlin. Every once in a while he spins a good yarn about the incompetence of the Phillies ownership group, but many times, like this instance, he’s way off base. I’d recommend sending him an e-mail, his address is right at the bottom of the article above. Just a warning, you may get a snappy return that does or does not mention his timeshare in the Dominican Republic.
Who is the better prospect?
Considering all things, who is the better prospect; Quintin Berry or Greg Golson? State your case below.
Kyle Drabek to have Tommy John surgery
Yep. Honestly, I’d actually prefer he just have the surgery now, fix what’s wrong, and then come back stronger and not have to worry about it anymore. Rehabbing does not seem to work, the majority of the time, so have the surgery and just be done with it. Recovery rate is very high, nothing to panic over, probably just better that it happened now rather than later.
On Workman and Sampson
The Phillies two picks remaining of their first 15 to not sign are 3rd rounder Brandon Workman and 12th rounder Julian Sampson, both RHP prepsters. I wouldn’t be overly concerned just yet, even though we are less than a month from the signing deadline. Half of the first round has yet to sign, and the general consensus is that teams wait as long as possible, as to not anger the Commissioners office. If you’re going to bust slot, you generally wait till the end, as to not set a precedent for other prospects who haven’t signed. The rumored numbers are about $600,000 for Workman and $250,000 for Sampson. Personally, I feel like the former has a very good chance of happening, the latter, I’m not so sure. If both guys sign, it will turn this draft into a B- in my book. I’m still not thrilled with how rounds 3-10 played out, but signing Jiwan James and Jacob Diekman is a definite plus, and if they grab Sampson as well, that’s a nice haul. We’ll see…
Ottawa Lynx Week Fifteen
The Lynx were supposed to, after limping into the All-Star break, have caught their collective breath, looked in the mirror, dug their heels in, and start afresh and with renewed vigour and determination. Instead, week fifteen saw them lose four in a row and five of seven. It would seem that Ottawa will be lucky to escape last place, never mind making a run at the playoffs. Every phase of the game was bad, even the defence this time, and it left the team frustrated, silent and feeling hopeless despite the positive spin which was being put on the situation by players and management alike and finally a good start by J.A. Happ to end the week.
Phillies make a splash in Latin America
Tip of the cap to reader SQUIRE for pointing out that the Phillies inked Dominican shortstop Carlos Valenzuela, paying him a reported bonus of $200,000. I’ve got a few e-mails out, I’ll see what kind of info I can find on him.
I’ve got that he’s a plus fielder, plus arm strength and accuracy, plus range and some projection in his bat that could see him develop average power. His bat is also more advanced than Galvis, for what that’s worth.
Jason Donald and James Happ
My picks for biggest step forward and biggest step back are Jason Donald and James Happ, with honorable mentions going to Quintin Berry and Greg Golson and dishonorable mention going to Zach Segovia. The suggestions thrown out in yesterday’s discussion were good, but I can’t see listing Cardenas and Carrasco on the step forward side, mainly because they were elite prospects and expected to perform. On the flip side, I can’t mention CJ Henry on the step back side, because I don’t think anyone really expected anything great out of him. Berry and Golson have both taken nice steps forward, but I want to see more patience from Golson and a bit more pop in Berry’s bat before I get too excited. Here’s why I chose the guys I did…
Phuture Phillies 