Keith Law mock draft

2007 Draft

I was really looking forward to Keith’s take on the first round, he seems very informed on the amateur side of the game and probably has a wealth of connections from his prior job. Law’s first round looks a bit different from many of the other mocks I’ve seen, but his logic makes sense on many of the picks. His pick for the Phillies wouldn’t surprise me, but it sure would disappoint me, then again, we’re Phillies fans, disappointment is all part of the game, right? Anyway, here goes…

01. Tampa Bay – David Price
02. Kansas City – Ross Detwiler
03. Chicago – Josh Vitters
04. Pittsburgh – Beau Mills
05. Baltimore – Phillippe Amount
06. Washington – Rick Porcello
07. Milwaukee – Matt Dominguez
08. Colorado – Jason Heyward
09. Arizona – Mike Moustakas
10. San Francisco – Jarrod Parker
11. Seattle – Nick Schmidt
12. Florida – Michael Main
13. Cleveland – Daniel Moskos
14. Atlanta – Josh Smoker
15. Cincinnati – Kevin Ahrens
16. Toronto – Nick Noonan
17. Texas – Matt Harvey
18. St Louis – Matt Wieters
19. Philadelphia – Michael Burgess

Burgess has as much raw power as anyone in the draft, but his game is erratic and features a lot of swings and misses. He was originally seen as an easy top-10 guy, but a bad spring pushes him down and could push him further if the Phils decide instead to go with the sort-of-local kid, Pennsylvania catcher Devin Mesoraco. (And yes, that’s the same Hillsborough High School that produced Gary Sheffield, Doc Gooden, and Elijah Dukes.)

20. Los Angeles Dodgers – Blake Beaven
21. Toronto – Casey Weathers
22. San Francisco – Aaron Poreda
23. San Diego – James Simmons
24. Texas – Julio Borbon
25. Chicago White Sox – Tim Alderson
26. Oakland – Wes Roemer
27. Detroit – Matt LaPorta
28. Minnesota – Madison Bumgarner
29. San Francisco – Wendell Fairley
30. New York Yankees – Josh Fields

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Now, this is a REALLY interesting mock draft. In this version, Mesoraco is not taken in the first round, that seems like a stretch. However, it would also mean Beaven, Bumgarner and Weathers would still be available at 19. That would provide a lot of possibilities. This also doesn’t include Brett Cecil, the LHP from Maryland, who could either start or be fast tracked as a reliever. I’m on record as NOT liking Burgess. He seems like Greg Golson part 2, with more power potential.

So far, all the mock drafts I’m seeing end up poorly for the Phillies. I really hope the real draft turns out a little better.

13 thoughts on “Keith Law mock draft”

  1. that would be heartbreaking to have harvey and weiters go in the two picks before us only for us to pass on mesoraco or weathers for a raw potential that the phillies seem to love yet hardly ever work out.

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  2. I really don’t know what to make of the whole Mesoraco thing. Some people seem to think he may go as high as #4, some thing he isn’t even a 1st rounder. Crazy stuff.

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  3. If the first 18 picks broke like Law predicts, I think I would take Beavan or Bumgarner (probably Bumgarner with a slight edge).

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  4. I’d still take Mesoraco. Bumgarner is going to need a lot of work, as his secondary pitches are almost non-existant, and I still don’t like Beaven’s mechanics. I’d much rather take Mesoraco at 19 and then either Jackson or Mattair at 37 and then look at pitching.

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  5. My mistake. I didn’t even notice that Mesaraco wasn’t taken (at all). Mesaraco would be my choice as well.

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  6. Bumgarner, Beavens, Weathers, LaPorta, Meseraco. Gotta take one of those, pretty much in that order, over Burgess. Burgess? Yuck!

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  9. looking at this draft board, the choice for me has got to be either Mesoraco or Weathers. Weathers looks like he could fasttrack to the bigs ala street or cordero.

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  10. I’m really just excited to see how the first round breaks. Everyone seems to have a different idea. Washington is now hard on Moustakas, and Porcello might slide because of his bonus demands. Things could get crazy, especially as more Boras guys make their way down the board.

    As for Fields and Weathers, I think we might be able to pop Fields in the 2nd round. If so, I’d prefer that to taking Weathers at 19. Also, Eddie Kunz is a college reliever who can probably move fast, he might be there in the 3rd round, which might be even better value.

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  11. I really can’t see Porcello dropping unless Boras wants 10 million for him. He’ll go after an Upton like deal- and i’d be inclined to think it reasonable for either him or Weiters- ie, something around 6 million. That said, i wouldn’t want the phillies to be the ones to give that money to Porcello, but i would for Weiters.

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  12. Well, if you believe Jim Salisbury, and I do, the Phillies don’t go over slot (by more than 50-100K) because of an ownership mandate. I think Wieters is worth it too.

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  13. This is the final kiss of death for me on Burgess. From a scouting report.

    Summary: Has chance to be a middle-of-the-order type. Needs good development program to help him reach potential. Has plus power with plus strength in lower and upper body. Has power swing now. Plus arm strength, below-average accuracy. Must learn how to get rid of ball faster as well as how to get his body under control. Below average fielder, but could be a corner OF with work in the future. Arm playable in RF. Not totally crude but needs to be professionalized. A 4.25 runner out of box but is just an average runner overall. Plus potential. Needs to learn how to load and get into trigger position sooner. Stance too wide; restricts weight transfer. Needs more shifting in his approach. Can drive ball to all fields. Chance to be a HR-type player with proper training. Makeup: Coaches and teammates like him. Appears to want to learn and is willing to make the commitment. A good hitting coach could really help. Has some feel for the game.

    That screams Greg Golson. Aluminum bat swing, doesn’t load well, real wide stance. I don’t like that sound of it at all.

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