The Rule 5 draft commences tomorrow as the capper to the Winter Meetings, and if history is an indication, the Phillies will likely be a part of the festivities. Baseball America has its take on the names generating the most interest here, as well as a list of all available guys here. The Phillies will be near the end of the line, so unless they trade up, the best talents will probably be off the board, but there are a few intriguing names that might be there. Before I look at the individual names, we have to address the state of the roster to determine the likelihood of a player sticking…

The Rule 5 draft is one area where we genuinely do need to look at the big league club to figure out how it impacts the process, since players taken in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft need to spend the season on the active 25 man roster. Using history as our guide, the Phillies will carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers as most NL teams do, 8 “starting position players” and 5 reserves, with 5 starting pitchers and 7 relievers. Looking only at players under contract, the roster looks like this

C: Ruiz
1B: Howard
2B: Utley
3B: Feliz
SS: Rollins
OF: Werth, Victorino, Jenkins
Reserves: Coste, Dobbs, Bruntlett, Stairs

SP: Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Eaton, Kendrick
RP: Lidge, Madson, Romero, Eyre, Condrey, Durbin

The above are all either under contract or eligible for arbitration. This does not include Jamie Moyer and Pat Burrell, and it includes Adam Eaton in the rotation. Any of those three situations could change, the Phillies could add a starting pitcher, they could use JA Happ, they could sign a free agent outfielder, etc etc. Looking at this list, we have one open bullpen spot, and traditionally, that has been the type of player the Phillies target in the Rule 5 draft. We also have one spot open for a utility infielder/outfielder. So, those are the two areas I’ll focus on. Obviously you could include Donald and Marson in the plans, as well as Happ, maybe a guy like Andrew Carpenter or John Mayberry, but for now, I’ll stick to looking at guys who are available. The guys I’m going to highlight are guys who scored well in my evaluation system, and I’m simply going to highlight guys who are known to be available based on the list at BA.

Matt Torra, RHP (ARI) — Torra was a first round pick back in 2005 out of UMass, but injuries have slowed his progress in the Diamondbacks system. He’s shown durability the last two seasons, logging 158 and 157 IP respectively between A+, 2A and 3A. He hasn’t regained his fastball velocity after missing a lot of time due to labrum surgery, but he’s shown good control (31 BB in 157 IP in 2008) and decent groundball tendencies. Lefties hit him relatively hard, he’d likely be nothing more than a reliever or #5 starter in the future, but he could serve as a decent long man and could stick in that role.

Eric Campbell, 3B (ATL) — Campbell had a big season in 2005, posting an OPS over 1.000 in the Appalachian League, and followed it with a solid full season debut in 2006, but has gone backwards in both 2007 and 2008. He was sent home at one point for what was reported as a lack of effort and professionalism, not exactly a feather in his cap. He posted an .841 OPS in the pitcher friendly Carolina League in 2008, and his home park is one of the toughest in all of the minors. He’s an intriguing bat, lots of pop at a position where we lack legit prospects, but its not likely he’d stick in the big leagues.

Chris Vines, RHP (ATL) — To be honest, I don’t know much about Vines other than he was a 5th round pick in 2003. BA’s draft recap indicated Vines had good velocity, but that was 5 years ago. As far as I can tell he’s not really a prospect by the common definition, but he fared well in my evaluation system thanks to solid peripheral numbers. He struck out 8 per 9 innings and walked only 2 per 9 in 2008 while pitching at A+. At 23, he was old for the league, and I’m sure there’s a reason he’s still only in High A at age 23. Not likely to stick, but intriguing. I’d be curious to hear what kind of stuff he has.

Kyle Fernandes, LHP (BOS) — Fernandes was a 12th round pick by Boston in 2005 out of Massasoit Community College, and like Vines, I know nothing about him other than that he posted solid peripheral numbers in 2008. At 22, he spent his 2008 at Low A and High A, striking out 8.85/9 while walking only 2.47/9 and allowing only 2 HR in 58.1 innings. Lefties and righties posted almost identical averages against him (.253, .255), but he struck out 34 in only 25.2 IP against left handed batters, compared to 44 in 60 innings against righties. His 46:35 GB to FB ratio against lefties was also solid. The Phillies have 2 lefties in the pen already, but as a 6th inning one out guy (think Delgado or McCann), he could have value.

Nate Spears, 2B (CHC) — Spears was a 5th round pick of the Orioles in 2003, and was later traded to Chicago in the Corey Patterson deal. He has a career .365 OB% in 5 minor league seasons, but an anemic .397 slugging percentage. He did post a solid .299/.394/.438 line at AA in 2008, with a .292 secondary average. He has a decent batting eye, not much power, and no real speed. Minor league defensive evaluation is near impossible based on statistics, but he committed only 11 errors in 2008. He seems like Eric Bruntlett with a better eye. We already have one Bruntlett, not sure we’d be targeting a second guy like that, but he could give some team a decent utility player option.

Ryan Edell, LHP (CLE) — Edell, another lefty, was an 8th round pick in 2005 by the Indians. Edell is a starting pitcher, logging 144 innings in 2008, and has excellent control, walking only 1.31 pr 9 innings at AA. He struck out only 6.18/9, an indication he’s more of a command/control guy than a power pitcher. He allowed only 0.87 HR/9, a respectable number, but is a fly ball pitcher overall, with a 37:46 GB to FB percentage. Against lefties though, he allowed a hit per inning, walking 7 and striking out 25 while generating more groundballs than flyballs, 44% to 35%. Looking at him as a LOOGY, he’d be intriguing. I won’t do a writeup on Chuck Lofgren, as I’m not a fan, but he’s the guy with the most name recognition on the Indians list.

Everth Cabrera, 2B/SS (COL) — Cabrera, a Latin American signing out of Nicaragua, has been slow to develop for the Rockies since debuting in the Pioneer League in 2006. Its likely the Rockies assumed no one would take him because he’s only made it to A ball as of 2008, but he did post a .284/.361/.399 line with a .340 SecA, largely due to his impressive 57 net stolen bases, 73 steals overall. A team that can afford to keep him as their 25th man on the roster and use him in selective spots could get themselves a decent player. He obviously has game changing speed, but his bat has a long way to go.

Richard Brooks, RHP (CHW) — Why the White Sox, who have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, would leave a guy who struck out 94 in 84 innings unprotected escapes me. Brooks was a 3rd round pick in 2005 out of East Carolina, hasn’t made it past High A, which might give us some indication of his status, but his 2008 was solid; 84.2 IP — 85 H — 29 BB — 94 K — 4 HR. He also racked up some nice GB/FB numbers, 48% GB to only 31% flyballs. Lefties hit .277 off him, righties .260. Lefties were much more patient against him, he walked over 5 per 9 against them, but his peripherals against righties look great; 1.95 BB/9, 9.45 K/9, .30 HR/9, 48% GB, 30% FB. I like what I see here, even though he’s a 23 year old in High A.

Chris Mobley, RHP (FLA) — Mobley is a 22nd round pick from 2004 out of Middle Tennessee State. An undersized righty (5’11, 170), he served as the closer at AA this season, accumulating 28 saves and finishing 45 games. In 58 innings he allowed 48 hits, walked 16 and struck out 70 while allowing 4 HR. Mobley, who I don’t think has overpowering stuff, has really drastic splits, lefties hit .346 against him while righties hit only .205. He generated very impressive groundball numbers, 57% to only 26% flyballs.

Fernando Abad, LHP (HOU) — As puzzling as Chicago not protecting Brooks, the Astros have the worst system in baseball and chose to left Abad, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2005, unprotected. Abad posted ridiculous peripheral numbers in A ball in 2008, 11.12 K/9 to go with only 1.54 BB/9. He pitched solely in relief, and because he didn’t get past A ball, its likely the Astros felt no one would take him. Lefties hit .286 off him, but he generated 56% GB to only 29% FB against them, walking only 3 while striking out 21. No clue on his stuff, but the numbers are impressive.

Yasuhiko Yabuta, RHP (KCR) – Yabuta was signed by the Royals last winter and struggled in his big league stint, then pitched even worse in his time in the PCL. He was hit hard by both lefties and righties, but a switch to the NL could help him, and if used in short stints, he could be a viable option. I believe KC is on the hook for the salary he signed for since he was outrighted, so we’d only be paying the minimum for him. Might be worth a flier. He’s not a prospect in age, but is in experience, so I thought he’d be worth a mention.

Chris Nicoll, RHP (KCR) — Nicoll, a 3rd round pick in 2005, split time between A+ and 2A in 2008, posting a combined line of 86.1 IP — 10.85 K/9 — 2.40 BB/9 — 0.94 HR/9. Nicoll was better against lefties than righties in 2008, but overall was a bit of a flyball pitcher. He was ranked KC’s #22 prospect in 2007, but fell out of their Top 30 in 2008. According to BA he has an average fastball (88-90 range) and an inconsistent slider with tight break in the 82-83 range. Again, that was as of 2007, its the best I could find.

Roque Mercedes, RHP (MIL) — Mercedes is a Latin American signing out of the Dominican Republic, debuting in 2005 and slowly climbing the ladder. He repeated Low A in 2008, posting a modest 4.30 ERA, but showing better peripherals, striking out 111 and walking only 27 in 113 IP. He falls into the same category as a few guys above, probably left unprotected because he’s only reached the lower levels of the minors. Lefties hit him harder than righties (.286 to .227), and he turned in decent groundball numbers, 49:36 overall, while posting a solid 70:12 K to BB ratio against RHB.

Oswaldo Sosa, RHP (MIN) — Sosa, signed in 2002 out of Venezuela, was solid in 2006 and 2007 before hitting the wall in AA. He struggled mightily in 2008 across A+/2A, but is intriguing because he generates lots of groundballs, 52% in 2008, 55% in his minor league career. Both lefties and righties handled him in 2008, but he has a career GB rate of 63% against lefties, thanks to great cutting action on his fastball. He’s never been a big strikeout guy, and he relies on his cutting fastball to get outs. If he’s the 2008 version in 2009 he’s not of much use. But if he re-discovers his 2006/2007 form, he could be a nice middle relief option capable of generating groundball outs.

J Brent Cox, RHP (NYY) — Cox was a 2nd round pick by the Yankees out of Texas in 2005, but had to have TJ surgery, which wiped out his 2007. He struggled in his return in 2008, pitching 36 innings across 3 levels, giving up 30 hits, walking 17 and striking out 16. Because he’s still not 100%, its hard to know what he has to offer. His trademark was a heavy sinker and his slider was at least average pre-injury. He’s likely a middle reliever if everything pans out and he recovers 100%, maybe a setup guy. If he’s not 100% healthy out of spring training, he could probably be stashed away on the DL for a little while, ala Francisco Rosario 2 years ago. He gets good marks for his competitiveness, his health is the big question mark.

Ivan Nova, RHP (NYY) — Nova, signed out of the DR in 2005, made it to High A in 2008, putting up mixed results. BA ranked him #18 in the Yankees farm system heading into the 2008 season, highlighting his great raw stuff and projectability, but noting he was still raw. He falls into the category of “probably not protected because he hasn’t gotten out of the Low Minors” and probably won’t stick.

Jamie Romak, RF/1B (PIT) — Romak, a 4th round pick in 2003, might be my favorite sleeper in this draft. Splitting time between A+ and 2A in 2008, he compiled a .259/.345/.517 batting line, with a very impressive .376 SecA. He had a solid 10.4% BB rate and an eye popping 52.8% XBH. He finished the season with 31 2B and 25 HR, but much of his success came in High A, as he hit only .208/.312/.433 in AA. He had similar success against both lefties and righties in 2008, .840 and .869 respectively, and for his minor league career he’s at .837 v LHP and .879 v RHP. He logged 45 games in RF in 2008 and 40 games at 1B, and played LF and RF in 2007. Defense isn’t his specialty, but he could probably handle LF. His obvious strengths are his batting eye and his power, a 12.3% BB rate and a .226 ISO are both very good. He’s not going to hit for average in the bigs, but he could be a good platoon candidate.

Eduardo Morlan, RHP (TAM) — Morlan, acquired from the Twins in the Matt Garza trade, is probably #2 on my board behind Jamie Romak, and might have a higher probability of sticking. To get him, the Phillies would likely have to trade up. Morlan struck out nearly a batter per 9 this year at 2A, while walking 2.87/9. Only 22, he’s still a legit prospect, but Tampa suddenly has a glut of talent and a deep system, meaning he might just get lost in the shuffle. He has a career 2.94 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 3.2 K:BB ratio in the minors. His HR rate went up a tad this year, but he’s given up only 23 HR in 321 IP. In his minor league career, lefties have hit only .190 against him. His one red flag; 35% GB, 46% FB overall.

Ian Gac, 1B (TEX) — Gac, a 26th round pick in 2003, finally had his breakout season this year, at age 22 splitting time between the pitcher friendly Midwest League and the hitter friendly Cal League. Gac slugged an impressive 32 HR, 19 of them coming in the MWL, a brutal hitting league. His line for the year was .284./.359/.522 in 571 PA’s. He strikes out a lot (30% of the time) and has only a modest eye (8.8% BB), but the power is for real, as he’s posted ISO’s of .258 and .238 the last 2 seasons. He’s a big dude (6’3, 245) so he’s limited defensively, but he bats righthanded, something the team lacks, and if deployed as a pinch hitter, he could do some occasional damage.

Edgar Estanga, LHP (TOR) — A 23 year old out of Venezuela, Estranga hasn’t made it past A ball, probably eliminating him from consideration, but he did put up great numbers in 2008. 102 IP — 92 H — 22 BB — 106 K. His 50:35 GB:FB% was decent, and he didn’t show notable platoon splits. Probably not feasible, but worth a mention.

So there you go. If I had to rank them, my list of preference would be

Romak > Morlan > Cox > Brooks > Spears

Its unlikely there is a real impact guy here, and its tough to know what the Phillies are planning to do with the last few roster spots. The Rule 5 talent in general is down this year, largely due to the rule change which wiped out a bunch of potentially eligible guys. Nevertheless, I expect the Phillies to take someone tomorrow, and I’ll have something on that guy if they are active.