Initial look at Rule 5 draft

As you know, the Rule 5 draft is next month, and the Phillies have had some success in that area, notably Shane Victorino in recent years. I believe the deadline to set 40 man rosters, ie, protect players, is sometime at the end of November. Here’s how things look right now

* The 40 man on the Phillies site doesn’t appear updated. 38 players on the 40 man roster, 2 open slots. This includes Burrell, Tad Iguchi and Jamie Moyer, who I believe have already filed for free agency, as well as Rudy Seanez, who isn’t coming back. Scott Eyre is also a FA and listed. So we’re at like 33, but its likely Eyre is coming back, as is Moyer. Burrell is less certain.

* The prospects currently protected; Bisenius, Carpenter, Happ, Mathieson, Jaramillo, Marson, Harman, and Golson.

* The rules, in terms of number of years a player can play before being placed on the 40 man relates to year drafted and age when drafted. 18 year olds (so basically prep players) must be placed on the 40 man after their 5th season, 19 year olds or older (college guys, essentially), must be placed on after their 4th season. I believe that’s accurate, based on what I’ve found before. So for the sake of the Phillies, we’re looking at guys who were drafted/signed out of high school or Latin America and debuted in 2004, and college guys drafted in 2005. By my count, that means

Carlos Carrasco, RHP (signed in 2003, debuted in 2004, which is when his contract started)
Brett Harker, RHP (5th rd, 2005, College of Charleston)
Jeremy Slayden, OF (8th rd, 2005, Georgia Tech)
Clay Harris, INF (9th rd, 2005, LSU)
Pat Overholt, RHP (22nd rd, Santa Clara)

Its pretty obvious why the Phillies sent Slayden and Overholt to Arizona. If they perform well, they are likely to be protected, if they struggle against better prospects, they might be left unprotected, depending on the number of spots needed for trades and the like. Its obvious Carrasco will be protected, the others, I’m not so sure.

52 thoughts on “Initial look at Rule 5 draft

  1. We really need to dump Eaton before the Rule 5 draft. I dunno if we can find a trade partner, but even then a trade might means we take back a bad contract.

    It might be more worth it to just release him and protect an extra player.

  2. Section,

    Unless PP missed someone (which i doubt) theres not much to worry about for us here. I agree with you about Eaton but not because we might lose Harris or Harker.

    We may only have to protect 1 or 2 of these guys depending on where they are at. If they cant handle an advanced league they will either not be picked or come back at some point during the year. Obviously CC will be protected.

  3. I wouldn’t dump Eaton (and burn $8 million) right away to protect someone like Harker. If they need the spot when it comes, yes, but don’t do it for the sake of doing it. Something could be worked out later on that would save the team money.

    I think it’s more realistic Bisensus might get released if they need a 40-man spot, as he must be protected if I am not mistaken.

  4. If all the FA’s are removed from the 40 man roster then the Phils only have 32 players (assuming Iguchi is/will be a FA), leaving them w/ 8 open spots. Granted, they claim they want to resign Moyer and Erye and they need a LF so there goes at least 3 spots. My point being, there is room available on the 40 man roster if they want to protect several of these guys, but I don’t see a need to protect anyone beyond Carassco and Slayden.

  5. RodeoJones-

    Bisenius? Really, I thought he might compete for a roster spot. I think we have too many catchers. 4 on the 40 man…

    We also have to take into account maybe we don’t get our OF until after the Rule 5. Maybe we get Moyer and Eyre back but drag that out till the Rule 5 draft is over.

    Still, my question to you is who would want Eaton? And how much are we talking about saving? Maybe his buyout? I don’t know if he’s worth it anymore. Remember, Stairs could be traded at anytime. We do have a ton of lefties on this bench.

    I think Slayden and Carrasco will get protected and 1 more. 2 of those guys will be left up for grabs my guess it will be Harker and Overholt.

  6. Don’t think the Phillies will be in a situation where they will need Eaton’s 40th spot on the roster so there is no need to release him immediately.

    The Phillies might be able to move Eaton to a team hoping to get lucky with him in a change of scenery situation. Someone like SD with a big ballpark that is trying to cut payroll might take a flyer if he is cheap enough.

    I would take Eaton to ST and hope that he throws well. Hopefully some team needs a body due to an injury situation and would take him as a cheap replacement.

    It would require the Phillies to eat most of his contract and get nothing back in return but they might be able to save $1-2 million in the end.

  7. I would protect Mathieson simply because he is one of the highest ceiling pitchers we have had in recent years. If the second TJ takes, we have a stud who is about 1 year away from contributing and two years from maybe being a top young pitcher in majors. The chances of that happening are not good. But the potential return is high. I say protect him because he is a special prospect.

  8. I’d protect Mathieson, also. If I needed a roster spot, I’d consider removing Harman. A number of guys were signed in 2004, but I don’t know if they played overseas for us: Garcia, Naylor, Monasterios, I think that Sanchez from Yankees. Of the college guys, what’s the status of Zagurski?

  9. The last I heard of Mathieson, we were wondering if his professional career was over. Is there any news on him? I always had high hopes for him.

  10. Mathieson is done. finished. game over. it is hard enough to get major league hitters out when you have the time to groove your mechanics. this guy hasn’t pitched a full season in how many years? it was fun while it lasted, but he won’t get another cup of coffee.

  11. They could easily trade Eaton, I believe. If Andruw
    Jones would approve a trade, they could trade
    Eaton for him. I see Seattle is looking to trade 2
    big money guys, Silva and Bedard. They could pack
    up 2 Washington guys, Eaton and Kendrick, and ship
    ‘em off for Silva. Something like that.

    They Don’t really need to trade him. If they release him
    Then they’re out the 9 million, no matter what, if no one
    claims him. If they really sweat the Rule 5 draft (?)
    they can just outright Eaton to the minors. Unless
    they’re afraid someone will claim him.

    I think you got the list about right. That’s the same list I
    made after the season. There should be plenty of room
    to protect all those 5. Carrasco and Slayden are MLB
    possibilities, and Overholt and Harker have interesting stuff.
    Harris is less of a priority, but hey, he’s big, plays 1st, 2nd,
    and 3rd, and bats R, why not?

    There should also be room to try out some guys from other
    teams. 2 3b-RF types. RH and LH starters, and LH and RH
    relievers.

  12. I wouldn’t say Mathieson is done until it’s determined that the second surgery was not successful (I realize it’s unlikely). If it’s successful, he could quickly regain top prospect status. He’s a guy they would probably groom to take Madson’s spot (the team may not be able to afford Madson and Lidge – we’ll see).

  13. mathieson will be protected, he already is, no point in cutting bait on him yet, his value is about as low as it could go. He can only improve from here, even if he just ends up being a servicable bullpen arm it’s worth it when you have so many free slots on the 40 man.

  14. Yeah, I don’t really see there’s a big shortage of spots.
    Don;t really see the need to unload Mathieson and
    Zagurskie, if there’s a chance they could regain their
    conditioning.s If they got the rights to someone, and
    there’s a chance they can be a significant contributor
    at some point, they should keep them.

    James, I, a brief time back, sent in a link to something
    with a scouting report in it on Bernardo Solarte, Nerio
    Rios, Jonathon Vilian, and Alvaro Bacil. I may have
    flubbed it and sent it off to the O-zone. So, received
    or not?

  15. One more thing, about that whole Matt Holliday thing.
    Sports Illustrated just said he goes to A’s.
    They might have more details later.

  16. In regards to Eaton a smart GM would have traded him when he was pitching well (we knew the crash was coming) Harker and others served time in the Reading hellhole and now that
    Forbes is gone I would protect as many as possible to get a true picture. Jaramillomust have some trade value. Jaramillo and cash if the A’s take him off our hands???

  17. Just curious… why bother protecting Mathieson? The guy won’t even be able to throw off of a mound until August as a best case scenario…. and if he got taken in the Rule 5 the team would need to keep him on their 25 man for the entire season or offer him back. No team would take a pitcher that can’t pitch.

  18. Does anyone really think the phillies release eaton and eat his contract. My question is, he isn’t old. How did he get this bad. He was a decent pitcher,above 500 or better now he can’t get through a inning. It doesn’t make sense. Why do people keep on mention Forbes, sorry don’t know him.

  19. That’s P.J. Forbes, who managed at Reading the last
    few seasons, or so, I reckon. Actually, other than
    here, I haven’t seen anything that said he was
    fired. Maybe somebody knows more.

  20. Maybe I missed it, but when was Eaton pitching well enought that someone would have traded anything for him?

  21. Mike since you asked Eaton was decent from May 11 to June 3
    His May 1 start was decent too but granted it was Eaton. A basket of apples would of been enough for me.

    Forbes is now a roving bunting instructor or some BS like that
    It will be interesting to see who Ruben protects who he doesnt

  22. Shunky, the reason you protect Mathieson is because he is already on the 40-man roster. He would be taken by another team long before he would be eligible for the Rule-5 draft. Because he is on the 40-man roster, in order make him eligible for the Rule-5 draft means that you would have to waiver him to remove him from the 40-man roster. That means he would not have to be put on 25-man roster of the claiming team only the 40-man roster. And he would not have to be offer back to his original team if not kept on the roster. Additionally, the team that took him if they can get him to the 60-day disable list then they would not even have to use a spot on the 40-man roster for him. Almost all of the teams in baseball would put in a claim for him. So you can not afford to remove him from the 40-man roster.

    Greg, A player taken in the Rule-5 draft if he is put on the DL for that year (he does not count against the 25-man roster but counts against the 40-man roster) must then be kept on the 25–man roster for the next year and if not must be offered back to the team he was claimed from for ½ the price.

    Scott Mathieson is a special arm. I saw Mathieson pitch several times. The last time he pitched for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre was 6-days before he blew out his arm to the second batter he faced in Philly in early Sept. 2006. The radar gun at the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre park was known as a slow gun. Cole Hamels in the only game he pitched at that park, the highest he was able to record on the radar gun was 88 mph. That day in August, Mathieson was really throwing hard. Most of his pitches were 96 or 97 mph. But 3 times in that start the gun show readings of over 100 mph. I believe that he was trying to throw to hard to fast. I believe that is why he threw his arm out in the next start in Philadelphia after only 2 batters. That being said, I believe that he can recover from the second Tommy John. While recovery rates are only about 35%, he is young and from what I read very determined. Approximately, 60 to 65% of recovering Tommy John pitchers increased their velocity by 2 to 3 mph after the surgery.

    I am concerned that the Phillies do not lose any players like they lost last year in Scott Mitchinson. Mitchinson was lost in the minor league phase of the rule-5 draft because he was not protected on the 3-A roster last year. Mitchinson had another excellent year in 2008 with the Oakland farm teams. He had an era of 1.72 with a whip of about 1, while striking out 89 batters in 88 innings and only walking 12. His career era is 3.20 and he strikes out more than a batter an inning with very few walks and excellent whips. I found it unbelievable that with 38 spots on the 3-A roster he was not protected. on t.

  23. Thanks for clearing that up NE PA….. I wasn’t really looking at it from that perspective…. wasn’t thinking about the whole waiver process and that nonsense.

  24. I quess John Russel was the manager when u saw SM pitch.One would think an excatcher would be more tuned in to
    a pitcher getting out of control. He also overextended Happ
    in 2007 when Happ was running a no errand run streak(after two injuries).
    Pittsburgs problem now

  25. Eyre resigned and Moyer will likely be back so the Phils will keep thier spots available and the 40 man roster will now be at 35. Add in Carrasco and Slayden they are at 37. So they will keep 1 or 2 spots open for the rule-5 draft as Amaro will probably find 1 or 2 more players for the team. Then he may even take someone as a rule-5 who may challenge for SP/RP. Depending on who they get he may also non-tender Condrey, but that would be a long shot. If Amaro makes a trade he may end up with more open spots to fill as I could see him packaging a few players together for 1 or 2.

  26. I think I may of found a prospect to add especially if Baltimore doesnt protect him(doubtful but it Baltimore)
    Lou Montanez Born: December 15,1981 has played ss,2nd
    and OF enough power in a smaller frame to play LF.
    anyone ???????

  27. NE PA Philly: That has been my experience with Mathieson also. I watched him throw 92-94 when he was simply trying to hit spots, which he did successfully. He also hit 100 mph maybe 4-6 times when I saw him. Plenty of 96-99s also. His slider is decent too. Not Brad Lidge or Carlton, but serviceable. Chances have diminished for him to return to full health, but he is worth the investment. He is definitely a pitcher who, if healthy and given time to regain full arm strength, should be in the top echelon of young pitchers in majors. That’s a long shot, but that’s what he promises if healthy.

  28. This is my first time on this site. Great to see all the hot stove chatter. I love the Mitchinson stuff. This is like listening to Yankees fans where I live in NY. Mitchinson will be 25 in December. He pitched great last year – as a 24 year old with 13 starts in low A ball. He only had 2 starts in high A ball. That doesn’t mean that he won’t pitch well in AA this year or next. But, we all know the jump from A ball to AA is the biggest jump in professional baseball. Let’s give the Phils the benefit of the doubt on this one.

  29. I like the Slayden chatter too. He’s a 27 year old, 6’0, 185 lb., Reading outfielder with no speed and average power. He’s left handed, so he may have a future as a bench player. But, he should not be on anyone’s top prospect list. If left unprotected, I seriously doubt he will be drafted by a team in the Rule 5 draft.

  30. True on all accounts NYPhilsFan. However, the issue with Mitchinson was it cost nothing to keep him, it looks like someone just dropped the ball on paperwork. All they had to do was put him on the AAA roster, which is a non-binding formality as I understand it (not like our AAA roster is jam-packed with quality arms anyway). If he develops to ANY value it’s an unneccesary failure by the FO.

  31. we’ve talked alot about who we think we need to protect, but who is out there that we can draft as of right now?

  32. NYPHilsFan: I don’t think it’s a question of losing sleep over a marginal guy. Slayden and Mitchenson are both good examples. It’s a broader question of whether you think a development organization is in the business of developing only stars and starters or are they in the business of developing role players too. We had to go out of our system to get Greg Dobbs to pinch hit and Rudy Seanez to pitch middle innings. I think a good organization develops the fringe guys too so they can contribute. Will Slayden ever be a Greg Dobbs? Maybe not, but he profiles as something like that, so you keep him to find out, alonf with a few others of the same ilk. Same with marginal pitchers. Those roles are critical and it’s the job of an organization to develop home-grown role players. It also provides motivation in your farm system, when players know they could wind up in the show vs. an organization that is always looking at washed up, semi-expensive veterans to fill those roles.

  33. Don’t worry, I won’t lose much sleep NYPhils, but it just disgusts me as a organizational guy that they could have something so silly happen to them. If I ran the team someone would have been severely reprimanded over it at the very least. This year it’s Mitchinson, next year who knows who it is? They need stronger organizational controls.

  34. This is getting hard to follow now- someone morphed the conversation from Mathieson to Mitchinson. And from all I can tell, is that, correct me if i’m wrong- someone is taking a concern that they may not protect Mathieson as a reality that they won’t protect Mathieson? But don’t we have it somewhere that he’s on the 40 man roster, with his roster spot protected because he’s on the dl?

  35. Mathieson is not on DL now, on 40 man roster,
    he can go back on DL once season starts.

    Mitchinson still too far down the line to get
    worked up about.

    Lou Montanez finished the year in MLB and did
    well. Former 3rd pick in draft. Lots of ups and
    downs. mostly downs until lately. Plays LF as
    he washed out in IF. If they want him they will
    have to trade, maybe Donald.

  36. Mitchinson is so far down the line he wasn’t even with the organization last year.

    Have to trade Montanez for Donald? what?

  37. Not in my lifetime just try to get him if he is unprotected.
    but I would trade Jaramillo for Montanez. Donald Will
    be a star in two years.

  38. NyPhilsFan, Slayden will be 27 in July of 2009. He consistently handles each promotion. He has a knack for knocking in runs. 81 RBI’s in AA and he’s among the league leaders in Winter ball. I could see him in AAA most of the year and possibly an emergency call up sometime in 2009. Can you say Ryan Ludwick?

  39. Thanks Bellman never appreciated Ryan Ludwick. There is a place for older late blooming players of cource the trick is to get the right one. Slayden just needs of cut down on “0 for ”
    games
    ps another nice game by Berry

  40. Mitchinson came up because he was lost during the AAA portion of the Rule V last year. As was stated, it seemed to mostly be a paperwork issue, as no guy who can sniff anyone’s top 30 for any team should be lost in such a manner.

    Just because the house isn’t as nice as other people’s house doesn’t mean we should trash it.

  41. Bellman and NoWheels: Agree on the Ludwick comp. Also the point of late blloomers. They tend not to be all-starts, but you can develop or find some good line drive hitters between 25-30 who have worked out the holes in their swings and learn to put a consistently good swing on the ball. Usually these guys are tweeners, not great fielders and not huge HR totals early on, but always hit line drives and handled pitchers, like Dobbs and Slayden.

  42. Slayden starts in the minors but if he is ready comes up when they need a DH all things being equal.

  43. If Dobbs, Stairs, and Jenkins are all still on the roster next season, the Phillies won’t need to go to the minors to find a DH!!

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