I’ve gotten a few e-mails asking if we couldn’t have provided a better package for Santana than the Mets came up with. In short, no, but it’s not just the prospects. Santana has a no trade clause, and the only way he’ll waive his NTC is if the team trading for him gives him an extension, probably in the 6 years/$150M range. The Phillies, I don’t believe, would even consider paying any player that much, let alone a pitcher. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, so obviously he’ll help the Mets, but I don’t think it’s panic time yet. Our 1-13 position players stack up and surpass those of the Mets, while they have a pitching advantage. That means it’s going to be a tight race for the East, and Atlanta should be decent, but is a clear third in terms of up and down talent on the 25 man roster. So, onto the prospects..
Mathieson and Drabek updates
From the new organizational report at BA, courtesy of Jim Salisbury
Mathieson, who was picked in the 17th round of the 2002 draft and made eight starts in the majors in 2006, had ulnar nerve transposition surgery in September. The operation was a less serious follow-up to the Tommy John surgery that he had a year earlier.
Mathieson, who turns 24 on Feb. 27, will take part in the full pitching program in spring training but likely will open the season in the minors as he eases into competition. Though he has worked as a starter throughout his career, organization leaders have long believed his power arm could work well in relief. He pitched for Canada at the World Baseball Classic in 2006 and could be a sleeper to contribute out of the bullpen in 2008.
Drabek, a first-rounder in 2006 who was considered by some to have the best arm in that draft, was 5-1, 4.33 at low Class A Lakewood when he began having elbow trouble last May. He had Tommy John surgery in July, and according to farm director Steve Noworyta, “is coming along real well. He’s on schedule, if not a little ahead.”
Drabek is expected to spend most of the season rehabbing in Florida. The Phils would like to see him get on the mound for Rookie-level Gulf Coast League games in August, then be ready to go for instructional league following the 2008 season.
“Even though he’s losing a year, we think he’ll make up that time,” Noworyta said of the 20-year-old Drabek. “Sometimes guys don’t realize what they had until it’s taken away from them. His work ethic has been outstanding. We expect him to come back better than ever.”
Definitely good news on all fronts, though I still think Mathieson has starter potential, it’s a good idea to settle him into the majors as a reliever.
How the Feliz signing affects the 40 man
The Phillies signed Pedro Feliz to a 2 year deal yesterday. As many know, Feliz is a terrible hitter, struggling to post an OB% above .300 and making outs like it’s his job (918 over the last 2 seasons), but he’s also an incredibly good defensive 3B…..one of the very best in baseball. Before the contract was agreed, the Phillies 40 man roster was maxed at 40. When Feliz is added, one guy will have to be removed. There are a few obvious candidates, TJ Bohn and John Ennis leading the list, but this could also signal a Wes Helms trade. Helms had a nightmare of a season last year, both with the bat and the glove, but he’s still signed relatively cheap and only for one year, so you might be able to find a taker. Don’t expect much of a prospect in return, but an interesting hitter would be nice. What this does do is pretty much set the position player side of the 25 man roster, sans a major injury. Non-roster invitees like Golson, Brennan King, Brandon Watson, and Pete LaForest are all likely ticketed for triple A Allentown. The interesting battles will be on the pitching side. With one rotation spot and two or three bullpen spots likely on the line, depending on the health of Adam Eaton and Tom Gordon.
In other news, I’ve added a video of Carlos Carrasco on his profile page, and I also did a page writeup for Julian Sampson as well, complete with a scouting report and his draft video. To date, I’ve completed profile pages for Carrasco, Sampson, Cardenas, Brown, Carpenter, Drabek, and Outman. More to come in the next few days/weeks.
EDIT: > Feliz was a Type B free agent. San Francisco gets a compensation round pick for him, but we don’t lose a pick.
Player profile requests?
I’d like to add a few more player profiles this week. I can either start doing them in alphabetical order, or I can take requests. If you have a particular player you want to see done, let me know. You can find completed profiles by looking to the left side of the page under the player tags…guys with a profile have the small link under their name.
What to expect from Joe Bisenius?
Bisenius is a guy I saw mentioned a bunch in a previous post asking which guys could contribute this year. As we all know, he had a terrible 2007 after a promising 2006. He had a few minor injuries, and his control abandoned him. He still has a hard fastball and slider, and if he can rebound, he could be a nice addition to the Phillies pen, instead of having to resort to re-treads like Antonio Alfonseca and Jose Mesa. Take a look at his key peripherals over the last 4 seasons
2004: 50.1 IP — 2.51 BB/9 — 6.83 K/9 — 0.90 HR/9
2005: 61.0 IP — 5.31 BB/9 — 8.26 K/9 — 0.74 HR/9 — 1.00 GB:FB
2006: 88.2 IP — 3.45 BB/9 — 10.25 K/9 — 0.61 HR/9 — 1.51 GB:FB
2007: 43.0 IP — 6.49 BB/9 — 7.95 K/9 — 1.05 HR/9 — 0.91 GB:FB
Was 2006 a fluke? When I did my Top 30, I looked at these numbers, and because of them I couldn’t justify including him in my list. The fact that he doesn’t get a good amount of ground balls is troubling. His HR rate has never been above average, even in 2006, and his best walk rate was almost 3.5 per 9, not mindblowing stuff from a reliever-exclusive pitching prospect. As I mentioned, he does have good fastball velocity, he does have a good hard slider, but does he have enough to be a valuable reliever? To me, he looks like a 6th inning guy, if he makes it. I’m hoping he does, because as I said, he’s much better than having to dig up old relievers past their sell by date, but I think I’m less optimistic now than I was at this time last year.
What do you think? Will he replicate or better his 2006? Will he struggle again?
The phuturephillies team looks set
Thanks to those who inquired about helping out with the site. I believe our team now includes
andyb; Andy will keep writing on the DSL/VSL prospects
bobev; Bob is our new Lakewood correspondent
clearwaterthreshersnews; Jeff returns as our Clearwater correspondent
bertmurr; Rob comes aboard as our Reading correspondent
gregg; Gregg remains on board and shifts his focus to the Iron Pigs
mikesbphuturephillies; Mike comes on as our dedicated transactions guru
Thanks again, and remember, be kind to our friendly volunteers.
Looking for a “transcation” volunteer
I might still be looking for a Reading correspondant, still waiting to hear back on that one from an interested party, but I am also going to be searching for someone to help with transactions here. Basically, my plan is to create a transactions page at the top of the blog to go with the depth chart and 40 man roster page. Your only task will be to regularly check for transactions, whether it be promotions, releases, new signings, etc etc, and update the transaction log. You’ll be added to the blog as a contributor, but you won’t actually have to write a weekly report. If you would be interested in doing a transaction summary, whether it be once a week, or once a month, you can definitely write something up, but it won’t be required. So if you’re interested, send me an e-mail. Again, I would like this to be something you can keep up with daily, or almost daily, but it shouldn’t be that time consuming.
New feature; 40 man roster
If you look at the top of the blog, I’ve added a new page for the 40 man roster. Basically, the goal is to keep an up to date copy of the 40 man, but more importantly, to keep track of how many option years a player has left, and to monitor when prospects are going to have to be placed on the 40 man roster. I took some liberties with the active 25 man roster, especially the bullpen, but that can be sorted out later. The most important aspect right now is making sure that the number of option years is correct for everyone, and then filling in the blanks for the post 2008, 2009 and 2010 roster additions. That can be a work in progress, and if you have something to add, please add it in the comments on the 40 man roster page.
Depth Chart updated
If you head to the top of the page and click the depth chart link, you’ll see all of the rankings. If you still strongly disagree with the placement on the list, you can leave a comment on the depth chart page and state your case, and maybe others will agree. I’m going to spend some time this week hopefully adding a few more player profiles and working on some other miscellaneous tasks for the site. Today’s question of the day; which Phillies prospect, if any, do you see making the 25 man roster out of spring training?
Depth Charts, Relief Pitchers
Today is the last day for the depth charts. We’ll focus on relievers today. Try to only discuss/nominate guys who are current relievers, not guys who are starting now but in 3 years might be bullpen guys. The one exception could be Pat Overholt, who was a reliever, then switched to starting last year, but is likely to be a reliever again, probably at some point this year. So let’s figure out the relievers, and over the weekend I’ll try and update the main depth chart tag at the top of the page to reflect my opinions as well as the sentiments expressed in all of these discussions over the last few days. I think this has been a worthwhile exercise, as it’s really highlighted exactly where our strengths and weaknesses are as a system. Thanks for the participation.
