Well folks, the draft has arrived. All the time spent analyzing players, reading scouting reports, and thinking about who we want/don’t want, and today is the day. The draft starts at 2PM Eastern, and the first round + compensation round will be shown on ESPN2. As you may have heard by now, the Phillies have lots of picks in the first 5 rounds, and a real chance to add a bunch of talent to the system. The Phillies have hinted that they will be more aggressive in terms of taking better talent, but they’ve also name dropped a couple of really questionable guys, at least in my opinion. I’ll post the full draft order, and we’ll discuss the draft as it unfolds. Any last minute rumors, post them here. Any random thoughts as it unfolds, post them here. I’ll do a full wrapup of today’s action later tonight with detailed thoughts. Baseball Prospectus is doing a roundtable chat today starting at 1PM, which will supplement the TV coverage nicely. You can get prepared for that right here.

Round 1

01. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham, SS (Griffin HS, GA)
02. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez, 3B (Vanderbuilt)
03. Kansas City – Eric Hosmer, 1B (American Heritage School, FL)
04. Baltimore – Brian Matusz, LHP (San Diego)
05. San Francisco – Buster Posey, C (Florida State)
06. Florida – Kyle Skipworth, C (Patriot HS, CA)
07. Cincinnati – Yonder Alonso, 1B (Miami)
08. Chicago White Sox – Gordon Beckham, SS (Georgia)
09. Washington – Aaron Crow, RHP (Missouri)
10. Houston – Jason Castro, C (Stanford)
11. Texas – Justin Smoak, 1B (South Carolina)
12. Oakland – Jemile Weeks, 2B (Miami)
13. St Louis – Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (Arizona State)
14. Minnesota – Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP (Wilson HS, CA)
15. LA Dodgers – Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP (Stephens County HS, GA)
16. Milwaukee – Brett Lawrie, C (Brookswood Secondary School, BC)
17. Toronto – David Cooper, 1B (California)
18. NY Mets – Ike Davis, 1B (Arizona State)
19. Chicago Cubs – Andrew Cashner, RHP (TCU)
20. Seattle – Josh Fields, RHP (Georgia)
21. Detroit – Ryan Perry, RHP (Arizona)
22. NY Mets – Reese Havens, SS (South Carolina)
23. San Diego – Allan Dykstra, 1B (Wake Forest)
24. Philadelphia – Anthony Hewitt, SS (Salisbury School, CT)
25. Colorado – Christian Friedrich, LHP (Eastern Kentucky)
26. Arizona – Daniel Schlereth, LHP (Arizona)
27. Minnesota – Carlos Gutierrez, RHP (Miami)
28. NY Yankees – Gerrit Cole, RHP (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
29. Cleveland – Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B (Pitt CC, NC)
30. Boston – Casey Kelly, SS (Sarasota HS, FL)

Continue reading The official Draft Day discussion thread →

Kevin Goldstein checks in with his mock draft today, and he comes to the same conclusion I did.

24. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies tend to favor young, toolsy players with their top picks, but they went against the grain last year when Rice southpaw Joe Savery fell into their lap. There’s not going to be a player like that for them this year, and based on where it looked like he would go as recently as a week ago, Collier is a nice find here. Once seen as a top 15 pick, Collier’s game is a bit on the crude side, but his tools all grade out well, and many think his potential ranks with any high school position player out there.
Selection: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS (CA)

Jim Callis has us grabbing Shooter Hunt

24. PHILADELPHIA. With Matusz and Crow seeking major league contracts and Scheppers getting hurt, Hunt was positioned as the best slot-money college starter just a couple of weeks ago. He hasn’t pitched well down the stretch and is sliding, but his stuff is too good to drop out of the first round. The Phillies have been associated with toolsy high school athletes such as fast-rising Connecticut shortstop Anthony Hewitt and California outfielder Zach Collier, but they may wait until their sandwich pick at No. 34 to take that plunge.

Projected Pick: SHOOTER HUNT, rhp, Tulane.

Jonathon Mayo ends up going with Zach Collier as his final guess.

24. Philadelphia Phillies: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS, Calif.
The Phillies don’t shy away from the toolsy high schoolers and could very well take someone like Anthony Hewitt in this spot, with a sleeper like Destin Hood getting some consideration as well.
Last projection: Ethan Martin

Keith Law adds to the Collier party

24. Philadelphia — Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) H.S.

Collier won’t get past the Twins at No. 27 if the Phillies go with Hewitt or Jason Knapp here.

Well, its that time. Tomorrow is draft day, and that means its time for my final mock draft. You can see version 2.1 here and version 1.1 here. For the last mock draft I put out (2.1), I tried to base my projections mainly off of draft trends, and not really focusing on the latest rumors, as I think track record is generally more important when considering who will go where. Now that we’re only a few days away from the draft, I’m going to take those track records as well as the latest rumors into consideration and try to give my absolute best guess. I’ll go through the first 34 picks, which would cover the Phillies compensation pick. I think trying to guess after the first round is pretty nearly impossible, as the talent dropoff begins and the signability factor, which few of us really have a handle on, becomes a big issue. So, lets get started….

Continue reading Mock draft version 3.1, the final cut →

KG released his Top 50 today in terms of pure talent, with a mock draft coming tomorrow. Here’s where he ranks a bunch of the guys the Phillies have been linked to…

22. Anthony Hewitt, SS, The Salisbury School (CT)
What He Is: On a pure tools level, he’s the best athlete in this year’s draft, maybe the past several years.
What He’s Not: A baseball player.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: An absolute monster.
Backup Plan: You want fries with that? All kidding aside, he’s a bright kid who’ll go to a good school and end up just fine if this whole baseball thing doesn’t work out.
Open Issues: His risk/reward balance is so thrown off that people have a hard time coming up with a good valuation; like many East Coast prep kids, he’s a year older than most high schoolers.

25. Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS (CA)
What He Is: A toolsy player who rocketed from decent prospect to surefire first rounder with an outstanding spring.
What He’s Not: Polished or experienced.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A player with a very good batting average and decent power.
Backup Plan: Fourth outfielder.
Open Issues: Without a ton of power or a ton of speed, is he a tweener?

28. David Cooper, 1B, California
What He Is: Yet another bat-only college first baseman, but loaded with everyone’s favorite two p’s, power and plate discipline.
What He’s Not: A guy who will ever be a good defender or win a foot race.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A middle-of-the-order run producer.
Backup Plan: Something less than that, but he’s pretty much first base and DH only.
Open Issues: He is what he is, as his body doesn’t offer a ton of projection.

30. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
What He Is: The son of an NFL lineman and a bulky lefty who’s velocity is hard to match among this year’s crop of southpaws.
What He’s Not: Anything more than a reliever.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: Randy Myers?
Backup Plan: More of a set-up type.
Open Issues: He has a long medical record, including a Tommy John surgery; his delivery has a lot of moving parts.

38. Brett Devall, LHP, Niceville HS (FL)
What He Is: As advanced as any high school arm in the draft, with outstanding control and a deep arsenal.
What He’s Not: A power arm.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A fourth starter.
Backup Plan: Some kind of big leaguer.
Open Issues: Can the fringe-average fastball set up the secondary stuff? Does his ceiling justify his price, or is there such a thing as a safe high school arm?

We’ll do this one with bullet points, just some general thoughts. Tomorrow I’ll post my final mock draft as well as some thoughts on the Phillies 7 early picks, and then on Thursday we’ll follow the draft as it happens and discuss the Phillies picks as well as other picks of note.

* Jim Salisbury, the only Phillies beat writer who really gives service to the draft, had some interesting notes in this article, which you may have seen by now. This is the money quote from Arbuckle;

“Can we take a kid who is worth $300,000 and give him $1.5 million? No,” Arbuckle said. “Can we take a kid who might be worth $350,000 and give him $600,000? If we see value and it’s the kid we want and that’s what it will take to sign him, then yeah, we might do that.”

There is some promise there, but of course “might” is the operative word. My stance on taking the best talent is well known. I don’t expect the Phillies to go crazy and sign every unsignable kid to a huge bonus, I just don’t want to see guys taken and given well below slot bonuses just to keep the draft budget down.

Continue reading More draft thoughts →

Wow. It really kind of crept up I suppose, but the draft starts next Thursday at 2PM, and the first round + comp round will be shown on ESPN2 I do believe. I’ve posted two mock drafts, and I suppose I’ll churn out one more next Wednesday, trying to incorporate the murmurs on what teams are thinking. There’s lots of smoke and little fire at this point, and I trust the track record of teams more than the latest buzz, and those track records are what I built my last mock draft on, so not much is likely to change, but I will make a few adjustments. I’m going to devote this post to the first round and the compensation round, and then I’ll look at guys we can possibly grab in the 2nd round on Tuesday before wrapping everything up on Wednesday before the draft. On draft day, I’ll make a draft discussion thread and update it as the day progresses. If you’ve just stumbled onto the site, you can check out everything I’ve written on the 2008 draft by clicking here. You can see my first mock draft here, and my second mock draft here. Now, onto our first 2 picks.

Continue reading The draft is a week away →

I meant to do a writeup on this before, but it slipped my mind. I just read Callis talking about it again two days ago, so I guess its time to address it, even though I’d just like to ignore it and move on. In his first mock draft, posted a few days ago, Jim Callis at BA projected Anthony Hewitt heading to the Phillies at #24. Here was his writeup

24. PHILLIES. Philadelphia GM Pat Gillick built the Blue Jays’ World Series clubs on sheer athleticism, and the best athlete in this draft is Hewitt. He’s very raw, but that never has scared Gillick. Collier and Hood are two other possibilities.

Projected Pick: ANTHONY HEWITT.

This fits the profile. The Phillies love raw athletes, and they loved them even before Gillick came aboard. Hewitt is an apparent “toolshed”, ala Greg Golson, but from what I remember before Golson was drafted, Hewitt is even more raw. Golson was a highly touted prospect, ranked the 7th best prospect in Texas, which was loaded in 2004. So, how did Hewitt make it here when he wasn’t even ranked by BA in their Top 100 high school seniors?

Continue reading First Jim Callis mock draft/impending doom →

Baseball America has an article today talking about the choices for pick 1.1, and while that doesn’t really pertain to the Phillies, near the bottom of the article there were two interesting tidbits.

Front-office executives contacted for this story said MLB had yet to inform clubs about the 2008 slot recommendations. However, the enforcer of MLB’s slot system last season, former MLB vice president Frank Coonelly, has taken over as president of the Pirates. Pittsburgh picks second overall, and Coonelly said in his introductory press conference that the Pirates wouldn’t be beholden to a slot bonus and would do what they needed to improve the club. He has reiterated the point since.

One NL scouting director commented, “Everyone will be waiting to see on Pittsburgh. Is (Coonelly) going to step out of the system?” If the Pirates do, the director predicted, other teams could follow suit, though those decisions will be driven more by ownership than scouting directors.

MLB officials already have informed clubs of several small changes to the slotting program. Last year, teams were told to not give any player selected after the fifth round bonuses higher than $123,300, the slot for the last pick of the fifth round. This year, clubs have been informed they can go up to $250,000 for bonuses for two players without having to run those bonuses through the commissioner’s office.

Also, MLB sent a memo to clubs telling them in effect to take the player they want and not to worry about signability—though this should not be seen as a signal to spend heavily. It’s more likely a case of the commissioner’s office providing more flexibility to scouting directors who are disgruntled about the effect of slotting on the draft, though it’s uncertain whether owners will actually open their wallets. Agents are certainly still trying to steer their players toward more free-spending clubs, according to area scouts.

This is pretty interesting. Then again, the Phillies took a pick last year they thought they could sign (Workman), then didn’t when they realized what it would take to sign him. Hopefully the Phillies have a plan with regard to what they can spend and they draft accordingly. Oh, and lets not draft any 4th/5th year seniors in the first 8 rounds just so we can give them well under slot bonuses. Thanks.

Baseball America has the update today;

Jonathan Mayo has reported in his blog and Baseball America has confirmed with two scouts that Fresno State junior righthander Tanner Scheppers has a stress fracture in his shoulder and will not be able to throw for six weeks. This is obviously a significant blow to the draft stock of a player who had a strong chance to go in the top 10 picks in June, not to mention a crippling blow to Fresno State’s postseason aspirations.

//

There are just five college starting pitchers who are regarded as sure-fire first-round picks, so Scheppers going down figures to boost Tulane righthander Shooter Hunt’s chances to go in the top 10 and help Eastern Kentucky lefthander Christian Friedrich sneak up close to the top 10. It also could impact the back half of the first round, where clubs might reach for a college pitcher like California’s Tyson Ross if they don’t feel comfortable taking a risk on Scheppers. Whoever does land Scheppers will get a high-upside talent at a spot in the draft that would have seemed very unlikely up until this week.

So, how does this immediately impact the Phillies? Well, the Phillies were only able to land Cole Hamels because he was coming off an arm injury, and they turned the same trick last season, taking an injury risk in Joe Savery who slid down draft boards because of the uncertainty surrounding his labrum. Scheppers was being pegged as a potential Top 10 guy, I had him at 13 in yesterday’s mock draft, and this should slide him down lots of boards. The Phillies are picking lower in the first round than they have in a long time, and Scheppers will likely be the most talented guy available. Clearly they’d have to really make sure his arm is sound and he’s fully healed, but this could really work in the Phillies favor.

Three weeks ago, I rolled out version 1.1 of my mock draft, so I figured it was time to do a bit more digging, try and find some more info that might make the pick a bit more clear, and then make a few necessary updates. To be clear, I have no inside information here, its based strictly on looking at players available and then the team’s past drafting history. I’ve compiled first and supplemental first round data for all 30 teams from 2003-2007, in hopes of finding patterns which might make this a bit easier. Of course, teams can always throw a curveball and do something unexpected, and even the most detailed mock drafts done days before will have things out of place. But thats part of the fun. So, for each pick, I’ll give my updated pick, my last pick for the team, and the under each team a brief analysis of past drafts. If you’ve found my site and you support another team, please chime in if I’ve missed anything, if you have some info on who the team is leaning towards, etc etc. So, lets get going

Continue reading 2008 Mock Draft, version 2.1 →