Due to the developmental differences between hitters and pitchers many more pitchers blossom in college baseball.  This means that there is a depth of pitching available in the draft that is not greatly inferior talent wise to the high school pitching available.  In the later rounds the quantity of good college pitching decreases but in the first two rounds there are plenty of college arms that have legitimate major league starting pitches.

Off the Board:

Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Braden Shipley – Grey and Appel are the consensus #1 and #2 picks in the draft, both offering arsenals of at least #2 starters and both should get there within a year.  Shipley is the 3rd best college pitcher in the draft and should be off the board not long after the Top 5 picks.

Should be off the Board or will be a hard sign:

Sean Manaea (Indiana State) – Manaea a left hander came into the year in the conversation for the first overall pick, but has struggled over the year.  The fastball is down to the hi-80s after touching 96 last summer, but he also has a breaking ball and changeup that profile as average to plus.  Manaea is a Boras client who could go back to school if he doesn’t like where he is picked.

Ryne Stanek (Arkansas) – Stanek has a plus to plus plus fastball as well as a pair of breaking balls that are at least average going forward.  The changeup is far behind and concerns that he might be a reliever long term might drop him.  Stanek will likely need to be compensated like a Top 15 pick but he won’t be unsignable if he falls. Continue reading So You Want a College Pitcher →

Now that we are into May it is time to look at specific players and groups of players.  We are going to kick off this series with the thinnest position which is college hitters.  For the most part this is going to stick to players available for the 1st and 2nd round pick.  I don’t have the information base nor time to do a full breakdown of later picks so those will be limited to mostly rumors of the Phillies being connected to a certain player.  Additionally the MLB draft can be extremely unpredictable since teams don’t have “needs” to fill and it is much better to do predictions in the moment.

1st Round:

DJ Peterson (1B/3B) – New Meixco – Peterson is one of the best pure college bats in the draft showing good power and contact abilities.  The problem is that he is likely heading to first base long term where the bat is very good but not as impactful.

Hunter Renfroe (RF) – Mississippi St. – Renfroe has raw tools seldom seen in a college player.  It is plus tools across the board and a likely RF profile.  The downside is he hadn’t done much before midway through this college season. Continue reading So You Want a College Hitter →

The Phillies like many teams draft for projectability when it comes to high school players.  The Phillies over the past 5 years have shown that they have a type of high school pitcher that they value.  That pitcher tends to be taller than 6′ 3″ and have large projectable frames with rumors that their velocity will increase and that they can hold up for a full season.

The thing to keep in mind is that many things can go wrong for high school pitchers.  Pitcher get hurt and often for strange reasons, and sometimes for entirely predictable reasons.  The velocity does not always increase and a player can be caught with fringy velocity.  Pitchers can also lose velocity in professional ball, this can be because they need to throw less hard to gain control or the increased work load can decrease their ability to throw hard every start.  The reward can be great with a high school pitcher that works out especially when those picks are in the later rounds. Continue reading Draft Retrospective – Projectable High School Pitcher →

At this point in the spring it is way too early to speculate about which player the Phillies will take with the #16 pick.  However we can begin to speculate at what players could be available and more importantly what type of player could be available when the Phillies make their selection.  I have taken the Top Draft Prospect lists from mlb.com, ESPN, Baseball America, Minor League Ball, and Baseball Prospectus/Perfect Game and taken the 5 players around the Phillies pick (so the #14,15,16,17,and 18 best draft prospects).  If there is a free report included I have added it.

MLB.com:

14. Kohl Stewart: RHP/OF – St. Pius X HS (Texas)

There are several things that make Stewart an intriguing, yet enigmatic, prospect. The first is his dual-sport status: Stewart is one of the better high school quarterbacks in the country and is committed to Texas A&M for both sports. Secondly, Stewart is a Type 1 diabetic and interested teams will surely want to be sure about his health. Even with those variables, Stewart is bound to get a lot of attention, especially after throwing very well at the Area Code Games over the summer.

He can run his fastball up to 95 mph with a slider and changeup to go along with it. He’s more thrower than pitcher right now and his arm action concerns some. That might be a question answered only if a team feels he’s willing to forgo his two-sport college experience.

Stewart played in both the Area Code Games and the Perfect Game All-American Classic over the summer. He was the starting pitcher for the West in the Perfect Game, giving up one run on two hits over his inning of work.

Continue reading Way too Early Draft Preview →

The basics of free agent compensation have been rehashed across the internet, however there are some more subtle things with the new CBA, that dramatically effect the draft, and especially draft strategy.

The Basics:

Qualifying Offers: A team can extend a qualifying offer to any of their free agents who have been with the team for the entire season equal to the average of the Top 125 salaries (in 2012 this was $13.3 million), the player had until Friday to accept that offer (just a one year contract) or reject it and become a free agent.

Free Agent Compensation: Any team that signs a player extended a qualifying offer forfeits their first round pick (if it is outside the Top 10) or their second round pick (if their first pick is within the Top 10).  Their old team receives a pick at the end of the first round. Continue reading Free Agent Compensation and the Draft under the New CBA →