Category Archives: Top Prospect Lists

Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100 Update

Savery, Joe, Top Prospect Lists

Over the next few days Kevin Goldstein is going to do brief blurbs on his Top 100 guys. Here are the udpates on Carrasco and Savery

68. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Phillies
Eligible Next Year? Yes
Production: 3.78 ERA at Double-A (88-85-32-85)
Stock Report: He’s missed more bats at Double-A this time around, but remains a bit more hittable than one would like. Still, it’s a slight step forward.

96. Joe Savery, LHP, Phillies
Eligible Next Year? Yes
Production: 4.69 ERA at High-A (78.2-99-33-64)
Stock Report: Down. After a good start to the season, Savery has been getting hammered of late, giving up 57 hits in his last 35 2/3 innings. Some scouts are worried that something else is wrong, as his stuff has been way off as well.

An injury might explain Savery’s very mixed results. Hmm.

EDIT –> This is an update of his 2008 preseason Top 100, not a current Top 100 or a projected Top 100 next year. “Eligible Next Year” has to do with projected prospect eligibility for next season.

Kevin Goldstein’s “State of the Systems”

Top Prospect Lists

KG is doing his updates for all 30 MLB teams, going division by division, just giving a brief overview of the systems, and picking out one prospect he likes more than the consensus, and one he dislikes more than the consensus, as well as handicapping who the team’s #1 prospect will be the following season. The article is subscription content, so I won’t post all of it, but here are the snippets

Pivotal Season: After missing most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Kyle Drabek will likely miss the first half of 2008, putting him well behind the development curve, which is confounded by the fact that he wasn’t especially impressive before the procedure.

I Like Him Better Than Most: A slow recovery from a minor shoulder procedure dropped Joe Savery to the No. 19 overall pick last year. If he can have a full return to form this year, that will look like a steal.

Don’t Believe The Hype: After 173 strikeouts against just 23 walks, including a 49-2 ratio at Double-A, Greg Golson is looking like nothing more at this point than a more expensive version of Reggie Abercrombie.

He pegs Carrasco at 2.5:1 and Savery at 3:1 to be the top prospect at this time next year.

If you don’t have a Baseball Prospectus subscription, you really should. The wealth of information trumps any other baseball site on the interweb. I’m still hoping to do another Q/A with KG in the near future, so keep an eye out for that.

BA’s Top 100 list

Top Prospect Lists

As Ducky pointed out in another post, BA released its Top 100 today, which is a consensus list of all the main writers at BA. The Phillies had 3 representatives

54: Carlos Carrasco
76: Adrian Cardenas
90: Joe Savery

Not bad, not bad. Boston and Tampa Bay, the two best systems in baseball, each had 7 guys listed. On the other end of the spectrum, the White Sox had zero. Milwaukee, Arizona, San Francisco and San Diego all had 2, while Houston, Toronto, the Mets and Detroit had only 1 guy each. I don’t necessarily agree with BA’s list, but its interesting to ponder.

Phillies Top 11 Prospects, per BP

Top Prospect Lists

Kevin Goldstein at BP released his Top 11 Phillies prospects today. You can read the full article here. Here’s the scouting report on Carlos Carrasco

1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
DOB: 3/21/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2003, Venezuela
2007 Stats: 2.84 ERA at High-A (69.2-49-22-53); 4.86 ERA at Double-A (70.1-65-46-49)

Year In Review: The pitcher who broke out in 2006 continued to get outs at High-A, but scuffled following a mid-season promotion to the Double-A Eastern League.
The Good: Carrasco’s low-90s fastball can touch 94 at times and has excellent movement. He throws it for strikes, and when he gets ahead in the count he makes batters look foolish with a plus-plus changeup that drops off the table as it spins towards hitters. His curveball is solid, and he mixes his pitches well. He doesn’t turn 21 until March, and his frame still offers some projection, as do his fluid mechanics.
The Bad: Carrasco’s control went backwards significantly at Double-A, as he got too fine with his location. He needs to trust his stuff more and be comfortable depending on his defense, as he’s not going to be a big-time strikeout pitcher. Some scouts see him as a bit of a tweener-–without the stuff to be a pure power pitcher, or the finesse to be a command/control specialist.
Fun Fact: During his 14 Double-A appearances, Carrasco had a 3.02 ERA at home, but a miserable 9.61 mark on the road.
Perfect World Projection: Opinions vary on Carrasco. Most believe he’ll at least be a good No. 3 starter, and some think he’ll be more than that.
Timetable: Youth is on Carrasco’s side, and he’ll begin 2008 with another shot at conquering Double-A.

Joe Savery was also a “4 star prospect”, coming in at #2. We then had a bunch of 3 star guys

03. Adrian Cardenas
04. Josh Outman
05. Kyle Drabek
06. Travis d’Arnaud
07. Lou Marson
08. Jason Donald
09. Dominic Brown

and then two 2 star prospects

10. Drew Carpenter
11. Travis Mattair

With our “just missed” guys being Freddy Galvis, Greg Golson, and Julian Sampson. Our sleeper prospect was Tyler Mach. Someone alert Art D, he’ll be pumped. KG’s final summary

The Phillies system is not an especially strong one, but although the organization has never had a reputation for being especially strong in its scouting and player development, the roster currently has a home-grown ace in Hamels and three self-supplied MVP candidates in the lineup in Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley. That combination is one that few organizations can come anywhere close to claiming.

So, discuss. As I mentioned last week, Kevin has agreed to do another Q/A here, so I’ll be putting together a list of questions to send him. If you have a good one, post it in the comments here. Thanks.

EDIT

Since much of the article is premium content, I will just give the “future outlook” and 2008 starting destinations for each player

Savery:

Perfect World Projection: Savery’s ceiling is at least the same, if not a little higher than Carrasco’s, but he’s also further from it.
Timetable: Providing that Savery is healthy and throwing strikes, he could skip a level and begin his 2008 season in the High-A Florida State League rotation.

Cardenas:

Perfect World Projection: Ray Durham minus the speed?
Timetable: Cardenas was good in 2007, but not good enough to earn any kind of accelerated timetable. He’ll spend 2008 in the Florida State League.

Outman:

Perfect World Projection: A solid mid-rotation starer.
Timetable: Like Carrasco, Outman needs another shot at Double-A, and he’ll join the team’s top prospect in the Reading rotation.

Drabek:

Perfect World Projection: When he was drafted, he looked like he could be a No. 2 starter, but he’s further from that now than he was 18 months ago.
Timetable: Drabek’s recovery has gone as planned, and the Phillies hope he’ll be ready to return to action during the second half of the season.

d’Arnaud:

Perfect World Projection: An everyday big league catcher with plus defensive value and enough bat to hit sixth in a good lineup.
Timetable: D’Arnaud showed enough to be ready for a full-season league, so he’ll be the everyday catcher at Low-A Lakewood in 2008.

Marson:

Perfect World Projection: An average big-league catcher.
Timetable: Marson will play at Double-A in 2008, and he’s in an interesting situation, as the Phillies have some depth at catcher, with Jason Jaramillo ahead of him, and D’Arnaud coming up from behind.

Donald:

Perfect World Projection: An everyday second baseman, and even if that doesn’t work out, Donald should have value as a platoon/utility player.
Timetable: Donald has nothing left to prove at the lower levels of the system, and will probably begin the 2008 season at Double-A.

Brown:

Perfect World Projection: Brown’s ceiling is through the roof, but the gap between what he is and what he can be rivals that of any prospect in the system.
Timetable: Brown will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2008, beginning the year at Low-A Lakewood.

Carpenter:

Perfect World Projection: A back-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Timetable: Carpenter might not have much of a ceiling, but he could be ready soon, as he’ll begin 2008 in a crowded rotation at Double-A Reading.

Mattair:

Perfect World Projection: Like Brown, Mattair brings a ton of potential to the table, but right now he’s eons away from being ready.
Timetable: Unless Mattair makes a dramatic step forward in spring training, he could be held back in extended spring training in preparation for an assignment to the New York-Penn League.

Keith Law’s Top 100

Top Prospect Lists

As many of you know, I’m a big fan of Keith’s work, and for those latecomers to the party, Keith did a Q/A on Phillies prospects for the site here a few months ago. Check it out here. He doesn’t pull any punches, he speaks clearly, and more importantly, he backs up his comments with explanations, and was even kind enough to answer questions in the comments section here. Keith has released his rankings of top prospects by position, top 5 prospects by team, and then tomorrow, his Top 100 in the minors, all of which can be found here on his ESPN blog. With 97.3% of ESPN’s site being “Insider content”, you won’t get much, but his coverage, especially come draft time, kind of makes it worthwhile. Unsurprisingly, no Phillies prospects ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. He’s not high on Cardenas at this point because he doesn’t really have a defensive home as of yet, and I’m sure Carrasco, Outman and Savery would be in the 10-20 range for RHP and LHP. His Top 5 for our team is Carrasco, Savery, Drabek, Outman and d’Arnaud.

Update: Keith ranks Carlos Carrasco #53

The Phillies’ system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco’s best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it’s possible to project him as someone who’ll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors.

From his ESPN Chat

Danny(Philly): Hey Keith I know your not a big fan of Cardenas because of a lack of position. Was he still close to making the list?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:36 PM ET ) He wasn’t close, but he’s a guy I’m keeping an open mind on for 2008. If I see more with the bat and/or an improvement defensively, he’ll be on this list next year. Maybe he should have been, but I’m sticking with what I saw.

James (Roxboro, NC): Joe Savery and Kyle Drabek, simply not good enough for the top 100 or do injury history/concerns drop them?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:35 PM ET ) Drabek is still out with TJ, and I think I only had two guys on my list in that situation, both in the 90s.

Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100

Savery, Joe, Top Prospect Lists

Another friend of the blog, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus put out his Top 100 prospects list today. Carlos Carrasco checked in at #68, while Joe Savery slipped in at #96. You can check out the full list here, and you can ask Goldstein a question in his BP chat today at 1PM eastern.

JM (MD): Everyone seems down on Carlos Carrasco. The fact that he was only 20 last year and reached AA has to count for something, doesn’t it? Will his flaws be ironed out with more innings, or do you see his upside as being limited?

Kevin Goldstein: It does count for something, but so does his stuff and production. He just doesn’t miss a ton of bats, nor have to stuff to project as a big time star. Very good prospect, don’t get me wrong — But I think he’s a No. 3, borderline No. 2 in a perfect world.

Justin (Brno (Czech Republic)): How good will Adrian Cardenas be in the big leagues? Do you think his power will develop into a middle of the order type of bat?

Kevin Goldstein: I think he’ll be an above-average offensive second baseman, but I don’t see his power ceiling going past the 15-20 home runs a year range. Little guy, line-drive bat.

Baseball HQ’s Top 15 Phillies prospects

Other Stuff, Top Prospect Lists

Deric McKamey from Baseball HQ was kind enough to contact me and offered to do a Q/A for the site based on his release of the Phillies Top 15 prospects. Baseball HQ is more fantasy baseball oriented, but it’s always nice to have another perspective or view on prospects. He passed along the Top 15, along with the grading scale and method, which I will post below. I’ll give the info, we can debate his list, and then I’ll come up with a few questions for him and we’ll get some answers in return. So, check below for the list.

Continue reading Baseball HQ’s Top 15 Phillies prospects →

My Top 30 Prospects

** My Top 30 Prospects, Top Prospect Lists

You’ve had your say, both individually and as a collective group, now I’ll toss you my list. Before I get into it, I want to make a few general comments. The minors are generally like kindergarten; you’re there to learn to interact with others, to learn how to listen to a teacher, and to pick up basic skills which you’ll use as you progress. Similarly, the main job of a minor leaguer is to learn how to improve different aspects of his game, whether it be hitting for contact, base running, refining a changeup, or hitting the ball to the opposite field. If you look at a generic stat line, with no context, it tells you absolutely nothing. The work that I have been doing is aimed at trying to look at a player’s statistics, consider the league he was in, his age relative to the prospects in the league, and then figure out just what his numbers mean. Generally speaking, I’m not that concerned with the traditional statistics, because they mean very little. Instead, I targeted things like walk rate and strike out rate, as I think those metrics lead to some idea in terms of prediction. After compiling the numbers, I considered everything I know about the prospect in terms of scouting reports. This point here is really important. While I tend to bristle when people only consider a player’s raw tools, it’s equally foolish to just assume a guy with good numbers in Low A will be good just because he has a good K rate. The truth is, if he has an 85 mph fastball and a good curveball, he’s likely to get clobbered as he moves up the ladder. I place more emphasis on performance to date over projection, but it’s a close split. So let’s get on with it..

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Savery ranked 16th among AFL prospects

Savery, Joe, Top Prospect Lists

Just saw this, had to get it up here. BA is doing a chat at 1PM if you have the means, check it out.

16. Joe Savery, lhp, Peoria Saguaros (Phillies)

Like a lot of Rice pitchers, Savery comes with some medical baggage. The 2007 first-rounder had minor surgery last year to shave down a bone growth in the back of his shoulder that was causing some fraying in his labrum. That didn’t affect his reputation too badly, as the Dodgers were ready to take him if the Phillies didn’t in the first round. In the AFL, Savery showed much better stuff than his pro debut. He clearly benefited from the short break between instructional league and the Fall League, finishing 1-1, 0.64 in 14 innings. Savery’s fastball velocity was 87-92, but still struggled to command it at times. His secondary pitches—a slurvy breaking ball and changeup—still need more polish, and his 5-11 strikeout-walk ratio is indicative of that.

BA’s Phillies Top 10 List

Top Prospect Lists

Hot off the press

01. Carlos Carrasco
02. Adrian Cardenas
03. Joe Savery
04. Josh Outman
05. Kyle Drabek
06. Dominic Brown
07. Greg Golson
08. Lou Marson
09. Drew Carpenter
10. Jason Jaramillo

Link

No real shocks here. I had guessed that Carpenter, Marson and Jaramillo would be close, and with the Lidge deal moving two of our guys out of the top 10, Carpenter and Jaramillo were logical choices. The chat at BA is scheduled for 2PM, let’s see how many questions we can get answered. Chat update below

Continue reading BA’s Phillies Top 10 List →