Category Archives: 01. Site Features

General Discussion – Week of 12-2-2013

Weekly Discussion

Non-Tender Deadline is today. This team probably shouldn’t let go of John Mayberry for nothing. If they eventually sign a backup CF, he should be tradeable, even if it is just to dump what will likely be a reasonable contract for a bench bat with pop, and they already have one 40-man roster spot available for a rule 5 guy if they find one. No harm in keeping him right now.

Bastardo has been discussed in the comments as a possible non-tender. I really don’t see it, unless he truly hurt Rube’s feelings over Biogenesis or something. Otherwise, he’s a real MLB bullpen arm, and there’s no reason not to keep him.

Frandsen is a bench guy who can hit a little and he will make almost nothing in 2014, even if he goes all the way to arbitration and wins. Kendrick is your #3 or #4 starter next year. In a perfect world, you wouldn’t need to keep a questionable arm like him, but there’s no depth to let him go and he’s been very durable, if nothing else. And Revere is a no-brainer – he will be tendered. 

I predict five tendered contracts. In an ideal world it would be two, Bastardo and Revere, but as we all know, the 2014 Phillies will be far from ideal.

Discuss.

Something to Dream On: The 2017 Phillies

Other Stuff

Last week I started exploring the future of the Phillies with a luck at what could be in 2016.  The series continues with 2017 as some more money comes off the books and a couple more guys arrive in the majors. Just as before here are the starting assumptions.

  • The Phillies are not trading away any players
  • Minor Leaguers will progress as “normal” and will not have any career ending injuries.
  • The Phillies will be rational about resigning players
  • I am not accounting for FA acquisitions and Draft Picks, however I will have a salary total that can be used to dream on FA acquisitions that could fill in the holes
  • Arbitration figures for salaries are taken from similar players

Catcher: Tommy Joseph and Andrew Knapp

This isn’t going to be a great defensive pair but it should provide plenty of offense.  In this scenario Knapp is likely in a back-up position given his inexperience, but he could overtake Joseph depending on how his hitting progresses.  More than anything else this pair should be really cheap. Salary: $1 million Continue reading Something to Dream On: The 2017 Phillies →

Something to Dream On: The 2016 Phillies

Other Stuff

For Phillies fans this offseason really has been a continuation of what has been a rough 2 years.  The amount of hope left dwindles by the day, and the confidence that tomorrow will be better than today.  If you have hope, the year to target is 2016, it is when the contracts start to fall off and the first wave of prospects starts to arrive.  On the suggestions of John Stolnis (@FelskeFiles) and Corinne (@Ut26), rather than just start with 2016 or look at the end result in 2018, this is the first part of a step by step transition of a rebuilding team.

In working on this activity here are the starting assumptions:

  • The Phillies are not trading away any players
  • Minor Leaguers will progress as “normal” and will not have any career ending injuries.
  • The Phillies will be rational about resigning players
  • I am not accounting for FA acquisitions and Draft Picks, however I will have a salary total that can be used to dream on FA acquisitions that could fill in the holes
  • Arbitration figures for salaries are taken from similar players

Obviously these are a lot of assumptions that will not hold true because prospects are unpredictable, draft picks especially the 2014 #7 overall pick could have large influences, and the front office will not be static for the next two years. Continue reading Something to Dream On: The 2016 Phillies →

Scout.com Phillies Top 20

Prospect Rankings

Kiley McDaniel is the Minor League analyst for scout.com and he has just released his Phillies Top Prospect list.  Given that is usually behind a paywall that many of us venture beyond it hasn’t always been a well covered list.  But this year the list is free http://sbb.scout.com/2/1348329.html and so we will take a look at it.  A note he has left off players with significant MLB or professional time like MAG, Cesar, Asche, De Fratus, Pettibone, Aumont, Savery, and Galvis

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. J.P. Crawford
  3. Jesse Biddle
  4. Ethan Martin
  5. Aaron Altherr Continue reading Scout.com Phillies Top 20 →

General Discussion – Week of 11-18-2013

Weekly Discussion

Last week I tried to predict/propose something and it totally backfired and like the opposite thing happened. This week’s prediction? Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon will both not be traded.

Discuss.

Jiwan James’s Agent Spotlights Minor League Free Agency and Minor League Life

Other Stuff

In an article today on Baseball Prospectus Jiwan James’s Agent Joshua Kusnick laid out the offseason for a minor league free agent from his agent’s perspective.  He uses James’s offseason as his example, and it forms a really interesting narrative and rare look behind the curtain at minor league life.  The article is free so you have no excuse not to read it.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22236

General Discussion – Week of 11-11-2013 – “I’m The GM? Rad!” Edition

Weekly Discussion

(Note – as I typed this, the Phillies signed Marlon Byrd. I’m not changing it. I don’t even acknowledge Marlon Byrd.)

So because all of you were clamoring for it, (I’m sure you were in secret), I’ll float my off-season plan here.

First, and foremost – Break the bank for Masahiro Tanaka, (Amaro seemed to nod in that direction yesterday, but of course it may have just been general talk about Japanese players and not a nod toward Tanaka himself). I know some of this will come down to budget, but any posting fee would be somewhat mitigated by merch sales and who knows how much mitigated by TV deal leverage. Plus I bet Morimoto names a dish after Amaro if he signs Tanaka – maybe his “Yasai Ramen” could become the “NiceSign Ruben”. I would eat that. Continue reading General Discussion – Week of 11-11-2013 – “I’m The GM? Rad!” Edition →

40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 2 – Pitchers

Other Stuff

After discussing who is on the roster, it is now time to discuss who might be on the roster going forward.  Pitching is a lot easier for a team to stash on a roster than it is to stash position players because bullpen arms can be regulated and coached without the need for constant in game work.  For the most part teams are looking for players who can provide a solid fastball and command out of the bullpen.  The Phillies have a couple of player who may be able to fill those roles, but more interestingly they have a couple of players who could provide rotation depth to the rate team.

Seth Rosin – RHP – Acquired from San Francisco for Hunter Pence

Seth Rosin is a big pitcher, and he generates good downward plane on his pitches.  Out of the rotation Rosin will show a plus fastball, a slider with good potnetial, and an average changeup.  Rosin will pound the zone with all of his pitches and has improved his walk rate every year.  Rosin wore down towards the end of the year as he passed his previous high in innings.  If he sticks in the rotation Rosin profiles as a back of the rotation starter, however if put back in the bullpen he could be an asset in 2014.  This potential bullpen use could make him attractive to a team in the Rule V draft.  MW: Protect Phillies: No Add Continue reading 40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 2 – Pitchers →

40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 1 – On the Roster

Aumont, Phillippe, Collier, Zach, Gillies, Tyson, Phillies Chatter, Savery, Joe, Valle, Sebastian

One of the first big moves of the offseason is the reshuffling of the 40 man roster.  The Phillies have already made their first round of cuts but they still have some work remaining to get down to enough to protect newly Rule V eligible players as well as sign free agents.  We are going to kick off this series by looking at the players already on the 40 man roster who may be on the bubble.  I have deemed players with established major league roles as safe and won’t discuss them here (this includes De Fratus, Diekman, Pettibone, Asche, Galvis, and Hernandez), I am including players who either are on the fringes or are pure minor leaguers.  I am going to give my opinion on what the Phillies should and give my guess at what they will do.

When it comes to players already on the 40-man roster, removing them subjects them to the waiver process.  This gives each team the option of claiming them, if claimed a player most only then be placed on his team’s 40 man roster.  If you are looking to keep some of these players in the org the big thing to look at is number of options years left.  A player with multiple options and some talent is likely to get claimed purely for a look, other, more fungible players can be snuck through waivers a bit easier. (*All ages are for Opening Day 2014) Continue reading 40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 1 – On the Roster →