I’ll kick off the AFL updates today, now that we’ve had a couple games for most everyone involved. The league is good about getting up new photos, and so we get a fresh reminder that Kyle Simon knows how to wear a mustache, and that Cameron Rupp could eat you whole if he wanted.

A couple roster notes – Kelly Dugan, originally on the roster, was sent home without seeing the field, as he battles turf toe. He was replaced by Cameron Perkins, who has yet to log a PA. Aaron Altherr had some kind of hand injury last week, but he was back on the field last night.

As for the results, it’s so early, in a league where it’s going to be early the whole time, but Kenny Giles clearly got it done in his two outings, strking out 5 of the 7 men he’s faced. Rupp has been hitting some – 3-8 with a double. And Austin Wright gave up a homerun to Byron Buxton last night, which proves almost nothing about Austin Wright. I’m sure somewhere there’s a Twins fan saying the same thing about Buxton hitting a homerun off of “Some Phillies guy name Ashton White”.

Here’s the link for the Phils’ Off-Season League stats. As we go, I’ll mention anything interesting I see in those stats as well. So far, all I see is Manuel Chavez pitching in his native Mexico. Recall he had a fine year in the VSL, striking out 72 and walking just nine in 74.1IP. One to keep an eye on, even if he is about to turn 20 and has yet to pitch stateside in competition.

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi

Continue reading AFL Update – 10-15-2013 →

We now transition from hitting to pitching where we can scout individual tools more easily but the complete package is often more difficult to put together. So we start with the most basic of pitches, the fastball. I break the fastball down into 4 components; velocity, command, movement, and deception of which each pitcher and pitch will combine to form a unique offering.  If a player cannot get their fastball in for strikes he is going to struggle to reach the majors, and if he cannot get weak contact or swings and misses in the strikezone, he is going to have a severely limited ceiling.  By mastering other parts of his fastball a player can marginalize weaknesses and amplify strengths. Continue reading Top Tools: Fastball →

Franco with another high placement on a list.  This time coming in behind Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Sano, and Noah Syndergaard.  He did place a head of two guys who are better prospects who were hurt by limited time in the league in Gregory Polanco and Anthony Rendon, but they are/were among the very elite prospects in the game.  He also placed ahead of 2010 #2 overall pick Jamison Tallion who has scouts split around whether he is a top of the rotation or mid rotation starter. Continue reading Maikel Franco #4 and Jesse Biddle #11 on BA’s Eastern League Top 20 →

In recent years AAA has been a league light on prospects, but in 2013 it had some real star power roll through it in Wil Myers, Xander Bogaerts, Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer, Nick Castellanos, and Danny Salazar.  Even so the back end of the list tends to be littered with fringe prospects.  Another thing to keep in mind, that while these are mostly pure prospects lists only scouting from their time in the IL was used, and the amount of time spent in the league can skew the rankings a little bit.  This years list went 16 strong to Trevor Bauer with the last four Darin Ruf, Carlos Sanchez, Kevin Pillar, and Joey Terdoslavich profiling more as second division regulars or bench players. Continue reading Cody Asche #9 and Darin Ruf #17 on BA’s IL Top 20 →

Hit and speed tools are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to evaluation.  Speed is the easiest tool to measure if you have a stop watch and good hand-eye coordination.  Evaluating the hit tool can take decades to learn how to project, and even then the sharpest evaluator can miss horribly.  The hit tool is a fundamental part of the game and it is the one tool that can end and make careers on its own.  Speed is possibly the most overrated tool in the game, because it is exciting and tangible, but that does not mean it cannot make a huge impact on the game. Continue reading Top Tools: Hit and Speed →

The defensive profile of a player has always been important to scouts, but recently the public’s understanding of defense has expanded.  Advanced stats and video analysis have allowed even casual fans to break down defensive plays.  Even so the baseball world is only starting to scratch the surface of defense and its value.  In terms of raw tools defense is a component of speed, arm, and glove, but instincts and coordination also play a big park in defensive success.  Rather than break down the best of each across the system I am going to break down the defensive profiles of major position groups in terms of the players that best exemplify that tool for that position.

Catcher:

Catcher defense is the farthest behind in terms on analysis because it touches so many part of the game.  We can measure pure arm strength by pop times, and a good throwing catcher will limit how much opponents even try to run.  Tommy Joseph has a cannon of an arm, it is at least a plus tool, only limited by his ability to get moving his arm has accuracy to go with the pure power.  Catcher receiving is often underrated and as fans we often look at their ability to block balls in the dirt and out of the zone, but a catcher who is quiet in the zone can make a huge difference.  Cameron Rupp offers pitchers a huge target and a quiet glove; he is not an elite receiver but he is very solid behind the plate.  The whole package of catcher defense can be an incredible thing, a catcher combining both the receiving and arm can be worth many wins in value without hitting.  It is not a complete package yet but Deivi Grullon combines an arm that could be plus plus by the time he is fully mature and he is a work in progress receiving but the feel is there to have a plus glove, giving him a near elite defensive profile. Continue reading Top Tools: Defense →

I knew I wanted to discuss the top tools in the system as a way of recapping the year and initially it was going to be one massive post with just a name next each tool.  I thought this format would be more interesting for breaking down the tool itself and why it is important and the ways we judge it.

Power is probably the sexiest tool in baseball right next to fastball velocity.  There are few things as visceral as someone crushing a baseball into the stands.  Power is a tool that we often wait on in the minors as players develop physically and mentally.  We often refer to raw power and power projection and often times they never come along, but when it does it can be special.

In Game Power – Maikel Franco

Honorable Mentions – Zach Green and Dylan Cozens Continue reading Top Tools: Power →

The Phillies have announced that second round pick Andrew Knapp will have Tommy John surgery on his right elbow (as per @jnorris427).  The recovery time for a position player is closer to 6 months of recovery which would have him able to throw by mid to late April.  I would suspect that Knapp will be spending spring practices working on his receiving and start the year as the Clearwater DH while slowly working back into the catching role.

This certainly is not good news for a top pick as Knapp is far from a finished product behind the plate, but this should only set him back a couple of months on the defensive side and shouldn’t push back his hitting.  The risk is that lost time behind the plate puts more questions in his ability to stick there.

Two casualties today on the waiver wire for the Phils whose pitching “depth” takes a hit.  Early today Pitcher Raul Valdes was claimed off of waivers by the Houston Astros.  Valdes went 1-1 with a 7.46 ERA in several trips up to Philly during the year. Later in the afternoon, Tyler Cloyd, 26 was picked up by the Cleveland Indians after he was removed from the 40 man roster by the Phillies. CLoyd, who was the Phillies 18th round draft pick in 2008 struggled this year going 2-7 with a 6.56 ERA with the Phillies during 13 appearances (11 starts) with the big club. 

I am not surprised that the Phillies removed either player from the 40 man roster as it was clear that neither was the answer to provide reliable depth for the club moving forward.

Baseball America released their top 20 New York Penn League prospects today http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2013-new-york-penn-league-top-20-prospects-with-scouting-reports/.  Williamsport third baseman Zach Green came in at #4 where there is concern about the strikeouts but the power is immense and they give him 70 grade raw power.

Williamsport RF and 2012 second round pick Dylan Cozens was rated #9.  BA also gave him a 70 on the raw power, but that he struggles against offspeed pitches.  Scouts like the bat speed and think that the swing will play at higher levels.  Scouts still think that he is a first baseman down the road but he can handle right field fine for now.

More info to come.