Harker was a guy that just missed my “Arms to Watch in 2007” piece, so I felt he was due a proper writeup here. The Phillies selected RHP Brett Harker in the 5th round of the 2005 draft out of the College of Charleston, in a draft that is quickly turning into a pitching coup of sorts, with the likes of Matt Maloney, Mike Zagurski, Patrick Overholt, Josh Outman, Matt Olson, Darren Byrd, and Justin Blaine also being selected in the first 20 rounds. Harker stands 6’3, 185 lbs according to his bio, and signed as a junior with 1 year of eligibility remaining. Harker appeared in 17 games as a freshman, starting 13 of them, but was used exclusively as a reliever his sophomore and junior seasons. After a rough sophomore year, he seemed to make all the right adjustments, posting a 2.47 ERA in 51 innings with 15 saves and 60 strikeouts, against only 10 walks.

Harker was assigned to Batavia after signing, and the Phillies, like they choose to do with many college arms, erred on the side of caution, using Harker as a starter and only pitching him 9 times, 7 of them being starts, and limiting him to just 37 innings. He struggled, posting a 5.06 ERA, allowing 38 hits and 12 walks against only 5 strikeouts. With a fresh arm, he was sent to Lakewood to start 2006, and it was a completely different kid on the mound. In his age 22 season, Harker pitched extremely well at Lakewood, throwing up a 2.92 ERA in 64.2 IP (46 games), allowing 53 hits and 12 walks while striking out 55. In addition, he had a solid 1.46 GB:FB ratio, and was lights out against LH batters, holding them to a .148 BA and a .435 OPS overall. He struggled a bit against RH batters, allowing a .283 BA and .778 OPS. This may be an aberration, or it may be a potential issue, we should know more after his second full season.

Unlike many relievers, Harker is known more for his breaking ball than an overpowering fastball. His fastball is probably a tick above average with low 90’s velocity, but his curveball is a true hammer, with sharp downward break and good velocity. It’s been described as having “curveball break with slider velocity” by Brett himself, and is his true out pitch. His success against LH batters (it should be noted, he had a .201 BABIP against LHB, which is abnormally low) might indicate the presence of an above average changeup as well, but he’s going to need to develop something to work against RH batters, maybe along the likes of a cut fastball, a splitter, or some sort of sinking fastball. When he gets ahead, he can bury the curve/slider on hitters and record the strikeouts, but he has to improve his consistency against RH batters going forward to be any kind of high leverage reliever.

Harker’s poor 2005 was probably just a tired arm and adjusting to an old role starting games. In 2006, he was used as the closer in Lakewood, and could assume the same role in Clearwater, depending on the positioning of guys like Pat Overholt in the system. While you have to consider the small sample size, Harker experienced varying results depending on the inning he was pitching. He had an OPS allowed of .882 in 18 innings of 8th inning pitching, but only a .595 OPS allowed in 23.1 IP in the 9th inning of games. You see lots of closers at the big league level struggle in non-save situations or when they come in to pitch in the 8th inning, perhaps Harker already has taken to that “showdown” mentality of pitching in the 9th inning to save/finish games. His K/9 rate also rises as the game goes on, from 6.75/9 in the 7th, to 7.50/9 in the 8th to 7.71/9 in the 9th inning. Again, probably just anecdotal stats from one season in Low A, but fun to ponder no less.

While he doesn’t appear to have the power stuff of a guy like Pat Overholt, he does appear to have the ability to close out games, and should remain in that role as he climbs the organizational ladder. It’s pretty tough to predict guys will become a closer at the big league level, but he at least looks like a potential 7th/8th inning guy down the road, and those commodities are very desirable. He’ll be one to watch in 2007, and if he continues his improvement he showed from ’05 to ’06, he could start creeping up the top 15 or so prospects lists.

Let’s continue with the grades. Again, any and all feedback is welcomed.

Mathieson, Scott, RHP (age 22) Grade = A-

We have our first grade in the A range. Mathieson has many more strengths than weaknesses at this point, and realistically, the only thing preventing him from getting a straight A  is Tommy John surgery and possibly his changeup. Mathieson did all of his work in 2006 at age 22, first at Reading, then in Philly briefly, then in Scranton, and finally back to Philly before tearing his UCL. Mathieson’s big league debut didn’t go well, but the reality is, he wasn’t ready for it. However, getting the experience should help him going forward. His age 23 season will be mostly a wash, as he won’t be on the mound at all until July or August, and it will take him at least 50-60 innings to get his feel for pitching back. There is no need to rush him though, as he will be only 24 on opening day 2008. Mathieson’s numbers finally caught up to his stuff in 2006, as he was well above league average in hit and K rates, his walk rate (especially at AAA) was fine as well, and he allowed only 10 HR in 137 minor league innings….not spectacular, but not a big worry. Mathieson had started to show his current ability in 2005, but his 4.14 ERA wouldn’t suggest he’d turned a major corner. However, he was voted the best pitcher in the AFL, and many attribute his rise to him scrapping his loopy curveball in favor of a hard slider. The slider lost it’s tilt and deception in Philly, but it returned when he was sent to Scranton, and it’s really only going to be a matter of him throwing it more and trusting his stuff. His fastball sits in the 93-95 range and he can dial it all the way up to 98-99 when he needs it. His changeup improved in 2006, but still lags behind his fastball and slider. If he’s going to be a successful starter, he’s going to need his changeup to neutralize LH batters.

Ceiling:  Mathieson’s ceiling is probably that of a #2/#3 starter. He’s only 22, and in 2006, showed his ability to bounce back from disappointment when he thrived at Scranton after a tough big league stint. He’s got the big fastball (though he does have a max effort delivery), he has the strong slider, but to reach that #2 slot in the rotation, he’ll need at least a tick above average fastball. As he throws it more, it will improve, and that will probably come at AAA while he’s recovering from the surgery. A comparable pitcher? Maybe Jason Schmidt, who basically lives off his plus plus four seam fastball, though Schmidt uses more of a curve than a slider.

Floor:  His floor, to me, is as a future closer/setup man. The sabrmetric belief is that it’s much more important to have your best arms as starters, because they pitch more innings a season. So, ideally, you’d want Mathieson, if he’s capable, to stay in the rotation, especially with his potential. However, if his arm can’t handle starting, or his changeup doesn’t improve, his fastball/slider combo has closer written all over it, maybe in the Brad Lidge mold.

Conclusion:  Recovery from TJ surgery is almost a given at this point, but there still is a chance he won’t regain his full velocity, while there’s also a chance his velo might actually improve. If he has to pitch regularly at 91-93, he’s going to need his changeup to be effective in any role. If he gains a few mph and is pitching regularly at 95-97, look out. As I said above, 2007 is basically a lost year, but he’s still got plenty of time and because of the depth in pitching with guys like Happ and Segovia, there’s no need to rush him back like the team did with Randy Wolf. I think his chances of reaching his ceiling are about 50%. He may not have quite the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy, but he should easily be able to pitch in the middle of the big league rotation in 2008 and beyond. I put his Floor at 90%, because even if he can’t start, his stuff is more than good enough to pitch in relief. I put a 10% chance on him not coming back from TJ and washing out of baseball. It doesn’t seem likely, but with any kind of arm surgery, it’s always a possiblity.

Moss, Timothy, 2B (age 25) Grade = D-

This should probably be an F, but I’m going to just put him on probation. Moss has really struggled since being drafted by the Phillies in 2003. He struggled at Lakewood in 2004, and then last season, he looked like he maybe had turned the corner, repeating Lakewood at age 23 and putting up an .811 OPS. And just like your problem child, who you think maybe has finally changed after being yelled at 20 times, he went ahead and broke our hearts again, this time by bombing out at Reading, in his age 24 season, with a .606 OPS, on the strength of his .180 batting average. The Phillies sent him to Clearwater, and he “responded”, sort of, with a .796 OPS. The problem was, of course, that he was 24 and playing in High A, and his .796 OPS doesn’t look that impressive. Now 25, what do the Phillies do with him? He’ll have to be added to the 40 man roster after 2007, and I’ve already written an article on him about 2007 being his make or break year. There’s nothing in his numbers that suggest a turnaround is likely. He struggled mightily when skipped over High A in 2006, and when sent back, he performed ok, but really, he should have put up much bigger numbers, age considered. I guess the only thing preventing this from being an F was the fact that he slugged .443 in the FSL, which was quite a bit above average. Then again, he was facing a lot of pitchers that were 3-4 years younger than him and much more inexperienced. Bah, forget it, let’s move on.

Ceiling:  A utility infielder at the big league level. Talk about a depressing ceiling. Basically, I’m hoping he can become Abe Nunez. When Abe Nunez is your ceiling, you may want to head back to college and finish up your degree. Still, his decent pop and above average speed could make him a useful 25th man on a big league roster.

Floor: Out of baseball in 4 years. Seriously. This is a distinct possibility. He’s proven an inability to hit for any kind of average at any level, he’s got decent power, but he rarely makes contact. Because he is a “great athlete”, which is why the Phillies picked him, another team will give him a shot when the Phillies cut him loose, but I don’t know how he’s going to magically learn to hit after 5 years of pro ball.

Conclusion: Tim Moss, as a prospect, depresses me. Talk about getting it all wrong. I have no idea where he’s going to start in 2007, but unless he really turns on the switch, and I’m talking a .280/.380/.500 type season at AA, there is little to no hope for him. I give him a 20% chance to reach his ceiling, and a 75% chance to hit his floor. He’s going to be 25 in 2007, and if he doesn’t do it now, he’s probably not going to do it. Such a shame.

Bisenius, Joe, RHP (age 24) Grade = B+

I’m hesitant to give an out and out relief pitcher such a high grade, but as I wrote in an earlier piece, Bisenius could make his way onto the big league roster this season, and he’s really been dominant in two of his three seasons since being drafted. A stellar 50 inning debut in 2004, a struggle for 60 innings in 2005, Joe turned it on in a big way in 2006, putting up a 2.25 ERA in 83 innings across A+ and AA. At 23, he was in line with the average age at each level, and if he does indeed spend part of the season in Philly this year, he’ll be ahead of schedule, development wise. He features a big fastball, sitting in the mid 90’s, and a hard slider, his out pitch, that allowed him to strike out 95 hitters in 83 innings, while allowing only 30 walks. The 30 walks are part of the reason he didn’t receive an A-, because on hit suppression and home run suppression, he’s fine, but the walks are a concern going forward, especially at the MLB level. He gets more groundballs than flyballs, but not an overwhelming margin, so keeping the ball down will be important at the next level. His changeup is average, but as a reliever, he won’t need it as much if he can locate his fastball against LHB. Lefties hit only .216 against him in 2006, with a respectable .657 OPS allowed, so he’s managing. His command will need to be sharp though, because big league LH batters are a bit different than career lifers in the minors. After pitching close to 100 innings with his stops at A+, AA, the AFL and Winter Ball, the Phillies might start him at Ottawa and ease his workload early on before bringing him up to the big leagues. But, if he has a strong spring, especially with the lack of dominance in the current bullpen, he may just break camp with the team.

Ceiling: A big league closer. We’ll see how he fares in high leverage situations going forward, but with a mid 90’s fastball and out pitch slider, the makings are there as a closer. His short term ceiling is a 7th/8th inning reliever, and if he excels there, he might get a look when/if Tom Gordon goes down with an injury.

Floor: Middle reliever. Basically, his only options are found in the bullpen, and with a big fastball, you’ll always get a look from someone. Hey, guys like Chris Booker, who have zero control and secondary pitches, are bandied about every season.

Conclusion:  For 2007, Bisenius isn’t likely to get a shot at closing unless he breaks camp with the team and is lights out for the first few months. And only then will he get a shot if Gordon goes down. The Phillies, and Charlie Manuel moreso, love the veterans, and unfortunately, Bisenius doesn’t have veteranacity on his side, so he will probably spend most of 2007 pitching in middle relief. If his control and command remain on track, he’ll be an effective middle reliever and could turn into a setup guy as early as 2008. I put the chances of him reaching his ceiling at 30%. It’s tough to say a guy can be a closer when he hasn’t played that role, and we really don’t know how he’ll perform against Major League hitters in pressure situations. If he adopts the mentality and thrives, he could get there. I’ll put his chance of reaching his floor at 95%. His arm is too good to end up out of baseball anytime soon.

Evangelista, Nick, RHP, (age 24) Grade = C

Evangelista is kind of an under the radar reliever, and really has been since being drafted in 2004. A local kid from Hamburg, PA, he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he’s put up pretty good numbers in his 3 seasons in the minors. He doesn’t give up a lot of hits (34 in 43 IP), doesn’t walk many (only 10), but he also doesn’t strike guys out, and he’s seen his K/9 rate go from 8.96 at A+ in 2005 to 4.81 at Reading in 2006. He does get groundballs, almost 2 to 1, which is a positive in his favor, and he’s only allowed 10 HR in 148 career innings in the minors. Last season, he held RH batters to a .501 OPS allowed, and they hit just.173 off of him in 28 innings. Lefties got to him a bit more, hitting .288 and putting up a .663 OPS against him. He did, however, strike out lefties at a higher rate, which seems to indicate his changeup is solid. Because he is a reliever, and because he has a somewhat alarming lack of K’s at a higher level, he only receives a C and not a C+

Ceiling: Geoff Geary. Evangelista was a 26th round pick in 2004, and if you can find a Geoff Geary-esque pitcher, ie, a guy who can give you 65 innings of a bit above league average ball in the bullpen on the cheap, you’re doing well for yourself. Evangelista isn’t going to overwhelm hitters, but if he can keep guys off balance and improve slightly against LH batters, he will be a viable option in the 6th/7th inning in 2008 at the big league level. He will be 25 in 2007, so he needs to head to AAA and put up solid numbers.

Floor: A floater between AAA/MLB. Think more along the lines of Clay Condrey. He may be asked to pitch a few innings, then get sent down the next day to make room on the roster.

Conclusion: 2007 should tell us which side of the spectrum Evangelista is closer to. If he improves against LHB, he may even get an emergency callup at some point in 2007. He’s never going to overpower guys, and because he pitches to contact, he’s probably going to always see swings in his performance, depending on the defense behind him. Right now, he isn’t on anyone’s radar, but he could prove to be a useful piece. These are the exact types of players every successful organization has though, the late round pick who doesn’t overpower, but can contribute and do so cheaply. I’ll give him a 40% chance of becoming Geoff Geary, a 70% chance of becoming Clay Condrey, and a 40% chance of never making it out of the minors. We should know more about his chances at this time next year, but for now, he’s one to watch in 2007.

Let’s roll right along with the grades.

Jaramillo, Jason, C (age 24): Grade = C+

While Germano was tough to grade, Jaramillo was even tougher. He’s really a tale of two prospects, or at least we thought so prior to Chris Kline’s comments a few weeks ago. Jaramillo was always applauded for his defensive work, but that aspect of his game was called into question in the Arizona Fall League this season. Offensively, he’s league average, almost across the board. League average in the minors isn’t necessarily a good thing, and the fact that he was 23, a college player, at AA and struggling is not a good thing. That said, he had a strong (relatively speaking) season in 2005 at Lakewood, where he had an .806 OPS. The problem is, if he isn’t a strong defensive catcher, he’ll never be more than a backup. I’m willing to give it a season before making the final judgement on his defensive abilities.

Ceiling:  If his AFL defense was just a hiccup and his defense is still strong, his ceiling is probably Yadier Molina. Molina is basically a .675 OPS guy with a rocket arm and great game calling skills. Right now, it doesn’t look like Jaramillo will hit much more than that at the big league level, but if his defense is what we thought prior to the last few months, he can be an everyday catcher at the big league level, especially in an organization that is devoid of blue chip catching prospects, and especially since the organization is apparently anti-Carlos Ruiz.

Floor: His floor is, unfortunately, as a AAA career catcher. You’d think he’s the type of guy who’ll get a shot either way, simply because of how poor the catching position really is across baseball, but if his defense is simply average, no team will carry him as a starter, and most teams probably won’t look at him as even a reliable backup.

Conclusion: My conclusion is, 2007 will tell us a lot about Jaramillo going forward. Up until the report on his defense in the AFL, I was fairly sure he’d be able to reach his ceiling, but now I’m not so sure. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a .280/.350/.450 guy at the big league level, but not many catchers are. But, the key is his defense. If he’s strong defensively, he can hit .250/.320/.400 and be tucked away in the 8th spot, as long as he’s throwing out 35% of base runners and handling the young pitchers well. Right now, I’d say he’s got a 65% chance of reaching his ceiling. I think there’s a better chance his defense is for real than not, but I want to see for sure in 2007. I think he’s got an 85% chance of his hitting his floor at worst, meaning a 15% chance his just out of baseball in 4 years. Again, it all hinges on defense. If his defense collapses, so too will his baseball career, but if the strong arm remains, he’ll probably hang around AAA/MLB for a while. Hey, if Todd Pratt can, why can’t Jason?

Bourn, Michael, OF (age 24) Grade = B-

I tossed around the idea of giving Bourn a C+, then when looking at his numbers again, actually tossed around the idea of giving him a straight B. So the only logical thing to do was go right in the middle and just live with it. His age 23 season was a tale of two seasons, as he put up a fairly pedestrian .715 OPS at Reading but then responded with a .796 OPS at Scranton. We know a few things about Bourn: He is never going to hit for power of any kind, he’s fast, and he has above average plate discipline, the degree of the latter is the biggest question mark going forward. In the low minors, his plate discipline was fantastic, but as he’s climbed the ladder, it’s become merely a tick or two above average. By all accounts, he’s a fine center fielder and his speed would be even better utilized at a corner spot, but he’ll never hit enough there to warrant his defense. The one constant in his game has been his ability to steal bases at a high percentage, and if used properly, he’ll always have a use at the major league level. The problem is, and I’m sure this is something the Phillies consider a lot, he’s been inconsistent offensively, and I’m not sure anyone really knows what to expect out of him next. His AA production probably didn’t merit the jump to AAA, but when he was promoted, he actually elevated his game. At the plate, he’s probably a C+ prospect, on the weight of his ability to get on base. On the bases, he’s an A- prospect, but that doesn’t carry nearly the weight of his bat. In the field, he’s a B+ fielder, but again, his usefulness, as an everyday player at least, will only come in CF. Add it all up, and he receives a B- from me.

Ceiling: The most common comparison I see to Bourn made by others is Juan Pierre, but I disagree there. All of Pierre’s success is tied to his batting average, and he never has been one to draw lots of walks or strike out much, while Bourn does plenty of both. I think a better parallel is Luis Castillo, with a lot more strikeouts and in CF, not 2B. If he turns into a Castillo-esque player in CF, he can be an everyday leadoff hitter as long as his defense allows him to stay in CF, hitting around .275/.375/.375, stealing 45-50 bases a year with a 75-80% success rate.

Floor:  One of the reasons I gave him a B- and not a C+ is that I think he’s going to be major leaguer for the next 10 years. That said, if his OB% doesn’t stay in the .360-.380 range at the highest level, he’ll be nothing more than a 5th OF who is used to pinch run and play late inning defense. Every team needs a guy like that, especially with a turtle like Pat Burrell in the OF.

Conclusion:  Bourn was the easiest of the three guys I graded so far. We know his strengths, we know his weaknesses, it’s just a matter of seeing what he does in 2007 to figure out if he’s going to be closer to his ceiling or his floor. With Rowand and Victorino, both on the right side of 30, there’s no need to rush Bourn into a starting role. He was skipped over Clearwater, but now has 1000+ AB at AA and above, so he’s gotten his time in. If he makes the club as the 5th OF, he could be the first choice to fill in at CF if something were to happen to Rowand, and who knows, he might not give the spot back, or he may flop and return to his 5th OF spot. Or, the Phillies could choose to send him to Ottawa to start the season and wait to make a decision on him till closer to next season, depending on what happens near the trade deadline. Right now, I’d say he’s about 60% chance to reach his ceiling, and has an 80% chance to reach his floor, with a 20% chance he’s never more than a AAAA player. His speed and defense mean, barring some disaster, that he’ll always have a use at the major league level for some team. If a guy like Joey Gathright, who can’t hit at all, is kept at the big league level and given somewhat regular AB’s because of his speed, Bourn will get there too.

Happ, James, LHP (age 24) Grade = B+

Happ was close, really close, to getting an A-, but what held him back is his walk rate. Right now, it’s not a problem, but it wasn’t a strength at AA, so I’m going to hold off on giving him an A- for now. He has developed the reputation as the typical soft tossing lefty, but he’s added 3-4 mph to an already good fastball, and now sits in the 91-93 range, which is quite solid for a LHP. His changeup is an above average pitch, his breaking ball probably average, but has potential and should improve. He was great at high A Clearwater, and even better at AA Reading, striking out 158 in 154 innings. He did all of his work at age 23 this season, so while his A+ numbers take a bit of a knock as he was on the high end of prospect age for the FSL, his performance at AA was right in line, age-wise. His hit rate was about 15% above average at Reading, his K rate over 25% above average, but his walk rate was about 5% below average at AA after being well above average at A+. That drop off probably isn’t uncommon, but I’m going to wait and see what he responds with at AAA Ottawa. Looking at his three true outcomes, he passes with flying colors in regards to his K rate, he’s just fine in his HR rate, and his walk rate is still a tick or two above average overall. His control was merely average in 2004 and 2005, so we’ll see where he ends up there in 2007 before giving him an A- or straight A. At this point, with the injury to Mathieson, he’s the closest to a “sure thing” in terms of making the big leagues and contributing, at some level.

Ceiling: I’m not going to make Tom Glavine comparisons, those serve no purpose. If his walk rate ends up in the 2.65-2.80 range at the MLB level, and he can maintain a K rate in the neighborhood of 7.50-8.00 at the highest level, his ceiling is as a #2 pitcher. That may seem like a big thing to say, considering he hasn’t torn up most prospect charts, but at some point, you have to look at a guy’s numbers and stop worrying about how “dynamic” his stuff is. Happ has a good pitcher’s body, he has a deceptive delivery, and he now has above average velocity, along with good secondary pitches and the makings of a real good changeup. While his chances of becoming a #2 aren’t as good as, say, Cole Hamels or a guy with electric stuff, he’s put up the results so far at every level, and that has to be taken into account.

Floor:  I’m setting his floor as a #5 starter. I really don’t see a need for him to move to the bullpen at any point. He was a good pitcher in college, and he’s been a really good starter during his entire pro career. The only way he’ll be forced to the pen, in my opinion, is if he can’t stay healthy. In 2005, that was sort of the case, but he was just fine in 2006. If his secondary pitches only become average, his strong groundball tendencies and his fastball should allow him to be a back of the rotation guy, capable of pitching 180 innings of 4.35-4.60 ball. On most every team, that’s good enough for the #5 spot.

Conclusion:  In 2006, Happ became one of my favorite prospects. He’s a tireless worker, he understands HOW to pitch, and his stuff is now catching up to his aptitude. If his new-found velocity stays and he can consistently work at 91 while ramping it up to 93, he’s Cole Hamels with a changeup a notch lower. That’s huge praise, and of course he may flame out or just become a below average major leaguer, but I think the tools are there. He handled AA with ease at age 23, and will probably start at Ottawa, his age 24 season. If he mows down AAA, which based on the level of talent between AA and AAA, he probably should, he’ll more than likely get a shot to start 2008 in the big league rotation. I put his odds of reaching his ceiling at 40%, because frankly, there aren’t a lot of guys you can pencil in as “bona-fide #2 starters” on a Championship caliber team, but Happ could very well surprise a ton of people. I’m giving him a 95% chance at hitting his floor, with only a 5% chance of him not making it in the bigs at some level. This kid is for real, and I think we’ll see that in the next year.

Segovia, Zach, RHP (age 23/24 in April) Grade = B

I struggled with this one too, as part of me thinks Zach should also be a B+ prospect, but kind of like Germano yesterday, I’m worried about the strikeout rate. I hate to harp on it, but the ability to get swings and misses is a huge indicator going forward. Segovia, who had Tommy John surgery in 2004, appears all the way back. His command is generally outstanding, as seen in his 2.02 BB/9 rate at AA Reading in 2006. Most pitchers struggle with control the season after TJ surgery, but Segovia “struggled” to a 2.99 BB/9 rate in 2005 while recovering, which really speaks to his outstanding ability to locate his pitches. He’s another guy with strong groundball tendencies, and he allowed only 10 HR in 156 innings this season. The problem is, again, trying to figure out how many guys he’ll strike out as he rises the pyramid and eventually reaches the majors. His hit rate has been fine, about 15% above league average across the two levels in 2006, so he’s getting his outs, but you have to think that number will drop at the major league level. He’s been better than 50% above league average in terms of walks allowed, and not to beat a dead horse, but that’s fantastic. He had a 7.48 K/9 rate at Clearwater, and it dipped to 6.31 K/9 at AA. Now here’s the thing. 6.31 is about average at the MLB level for qualified starting pitchers, ie, guys that throw 160+ innings a year. If he averages 6.3 K/9 at the MLB level, I have no doubts he can be a solid SP. The problem is, 6.3 K/9 at AA doesn’t translate to 6.3 K/9 at the MLB level. If he dips down to the 5.0 range, he’s going to be tough to project and tough to count on. As he doesn’t turn 24 till April, he’s right in line with where he should be, which will more than likely be AAA. He may be the first call up (other than Happ) in the event of an injury in Philly.

Ceiling:  As with all groundball pitchers, it’s really tough to say. The easy comp for groundball guys is Chien-Ming Wang, but Wang has a 93-95 mph fastball, I’m not sure Segovia is quite there. Wang’s peripherals in the minors compare very similar to Segovia: 2.04 BB/9, 7.06 K/9, 0.46 HR/9. The difference, though, is that Wang doesn’t just have GB tendencies, he’s a maniac, getting over 3 groundballs to every fly ball. Segovia only generated 1.7 GB to every FB. So, I think we have to aim a little lower. I’d say a safer bet, when considering his ceiling, is as a solid #4 starter, capable of 200 innings, and anywhere from a 3.90 to 4.50 ERA, depending on how good his defense is behind him.

Floor:  A 7th inning reliever in the Geoff Geary mold. If he can’t strike guys out and doesn’t develop the violent sinker of C-M Wang, he certainly appears capable of developing into a reliable 7th inning guy. He’s better against RHB, but lefties didn’t kill him, so it’s not as if he’s ticketed for the ROOGY role. His hard sinker could serve him well against both, and if his changeup jumps up a grade on the scale and becomes a solid above average pitch, he may even look at setup man duties as a possibility. Low K guys in the late innings are scary, but Segovia seems like a quality competitor.

Conclusion:  The future for Zach is good, regardless of the role he’s going to play. Like I said above, it’s going to come down to his ability to either A) improve his strikeout rate or B) Get even more groundballs than he does now. If his ratio is, say, 2 or 2.3 to 1, he can be the middle of the rotation starter, probably a capable #3 on most teams, and a #4 on the best teams. If the K’s don’t come, there’s no reason he can’t be a capable 5th starter or a middle to late inning reliever. His conditioning could be an issue, he’s a big boy, but we’ll wait and see on that. With a strong 2007 at AAA, he’ll be in line for a big league job in 2008, and he could see a jump to a B+ prospect in my book…..which I’m sure is his top priority. I put his chances of reaching his ceiling at 55%, his chances of hitting his floor at 90%, meaning basically, I see him as a major leaguer a year from now in some form.

This is something I wanted to do in the beginning, but I needed to put more time into it, and now that I’ve had some time to tinker, I think I’m ready to begin. Basically, the aim of this is to assign a letter grade to each prospect in the system as an easier way to evaluate and compare guys across levels. I’ve devised a spreadsheet with various formulas in it to help me with this, but it will still include some subjective analysis on my part. Don’t take these grades as a be all end all, or anything of the sort. I have my own system, which I’m sure I’ll be tweaking for quite some time. The idea of assigning a letter grade comes from John Sickels’ approach, but I have no idea how he arrives at his grades, so I’m really only using his general idea.

I don’t want to get into explaining tons of formulas, but here are my basic evaluation methods. I’m going to base most of my grades on performance, relative to the league average, and then consider age and position. For example, when looking at a guy like Mike Costanzo, I’m going to look at his performance against those in the FSL, then consider a multiplier for his position, 3B, then consider his age in relation to his league. Defensive analysis is tough, even at the ML level, so I’m not going to alter my grade much in that area, but I will consider it and weigh it slightly. I’m not really going to use a player’s tools or what others think he could be, I’m simply going to grade based on what the player has done. I’m going to place a higher weight on 2006 performance, but also consider past performance and other aspects of the player’s body of work/makeup.

Because of my above theory, grades for guys drafted in 2006 will be extremely unstable, so take that as a warning up front. Kyle Drabek, who I’ve raved about in great detail, is going to get a pretty lousy grade, but in a year from now, he’ll have a shot to completely redeem that grade. I think his potential is unlimited, but I’m not really going to grade on potential, more just on what the player has done. My goal is to do a few of these grades per day, and I’ll start at AAA and work my way back, for the reasons I stated above. I’m going to limit the grades to guys who are still prospects or fringe prospects. In other words, I won’t be grading an 8 year minor leaguer in AAA, or a 26 year old in Low A. If I miss anyone after I’ve moved from one level to another, please just make a note in the comments section and I’ll include that player in the next batch of grades. After I’ve made my way through all the levels, I’ll do a cumulative writeup and list every player under each grade, which should give us a nice overview of the level of talent in the system.

I’ve added a category on the left side under the “Features” section where all the entries will be tagged, so if you miss a day or two, you can just click there to see all of the grades. To determine what level to grade the player at, I’m simply going to use the level where he accumulated at least 75% of his AB’s or IP. If he doesn’t have 75% at one level, I’ll take the lower level, as long as it’s more than 45% of his total. One final note. There were really zero legit prospects that spent a long enough time at Scranton this season to qualify here. Ruiz and Roberson are too old, Sanches, Minix and Condrey aren’t “prospects” in the true sense, so I won’t include them. Bourn and Mathieson got the bulk of their playing time at Reading, so they’ll be graded there. The only guy I am going to include from AAA is Germano, but the bulk of his innings came in the Cinci organization. However, Cinci’s AAA team also plays in the IL, so while his numbers might have been affected by the park he pitched in, I’m just going to use his cumulative 2006 numbers to grade him.

For today, we’ll just do Germano’s grade, which will serve as an example, and I’ll give explanations. If you have questions on the process, ask away. Remember, this is just for fun, and my own subjectiveness needs to be taken into consideration.

Germano, Justin, RHP (age 24): Grade = C+

I made a slight tweak, and because of it, upgraded Germano to a C+ from a C. His peripherals really are a mixed bag. He’s below average in H/9 by about 7%, below average in K’s by about 30%, he’s 1% above average in HR/9, and he’s a whopping 128% above league average in BB/9. Now, obviously that doesn’t make him 92% above league average, and this is where the subjectivity comes into play. Control is a huge issue going forward, but you have to consider he is basically 36% below average when it comes to his hit rate, K rate and HR rate, and he’s much much better than league average in walk rate. Couple that together, and I think he’s right around league average, slightly above. On my scale, 0%-4% above league average is a C+ prospect, and that’s where I’m sticking with Germano.

Ceiling: Germano’s ceiling probably sits at 5th starter, making 30 starts a year. He doesn’t have the pure stuff to be a middle of the rotation kind of guy, but could see time at the back end of the rotation.
Floor: His current role, a AAA starter.
Conclusion: Germano is probably better suited playing in a big park like PETCO or SAFECO and with a good defense behind him. I’d say he’s got a 40% chance of reaching his ceiling, he’s got a 40% chance of becoming a major league reliever/swingman, and there’s a 20% chance he languishes in the minors for the rest of his career. He’s a strike thrower, but lacks the stuff needed to overpower guys. He might not be the best fit in Philly for the reasons above, but with a strong AAA season in 2007, could be included in a trade to a better suited team, where he might be closer to reaching his ceiling.

Another day, another player profile for your enjoyment. Today we’ll chronicle one of my personal favorites from the 2006 draft, LHP Dan Brauer. The Phillies selected Brauer #187 overall in the 6th round out of Northwestern University. If you remember from an earlier entry, the Phillies nabbed one of the most successful pitchers in Northwestern history two years prior in James Happ. Brauer, though, is a different case, as he was technically a senior, but with a year of eligibility left after missing all of 2005 with labrum surgery while Happ was a true junior. Brauer compiled a strong three years at Northwestern, finishing his career with this line:

236 IP, 3.24 ERA, 218 H, 103 BB, 230 K, 13 HR

Less than a hit per inning, a somewhat high walk rate, a solid K rate, and a very very good HR rate is pretty good production at a good school in a good conference, but you have to remove the top layer and look closer at his numbers. Looking at his numbers, year by year, give you a better idea

2003: 54.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 8.33 H/9, 5.33 BB/9, 7.33 K/9, 0.00 HR/9
2004: 89.1 IP, 3.02 ERA, 8.06 H/9, 2.67 BB/9, 9.67 K/9, 0.50 HR/9
2005: Did Not Pitch (more on this in a minute)
2006: 92.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 8.55 H/9, 4.37 BB/9, 8.74 K/9, 0.78 HR/9

So, from his freshman year to his sophomore year, he improved across the board except he allowed 5 HR in 2004 as opposed to zero in 2003, but he also pitched 30 more innings. He missed the entire 2005 season with labrum surgery. For those who follow the injury side of the game, the “l word” is the scariest word in the baseball injury dictionary. For an explanation of it, read this amazing Will Carroll article on the subject that he wrote in Slate a few years back. The rate of successful return from labrum surgery is literally less than 5%, which really meant that Brauer was battling more than uphill in 2006, he was virtually climbing straight up the mountain. However, he was strong enough to pitch the most innings of his college career, post hit and walk rates that didn’t suggest he was gone as a pitcher, post impressive strikeout and home run totals, win Big Ten Conference Pitcher of the Year and throw a no-hitter against Michigan State……not a bad return. Much like Tommy John surgery, which has a much higher “survival” rate, it takes time after labrum surgery to regain your control and feel for pitching.

A number of factors, including the shoulder surgery, his year of eligibility, and his lack of “dominating stuff” like that of his teammate George Kontos, probably led to his slide to the Phillies. He wasted little time signing for $150,000 and soon reported to Batavia. He showed the Phillies he was fully recovered and ready to go by posting a 1.96 ERA in 55 innings, allowing 39 hits (1 home run) and 18 walks to 65 strikeouts and was promoted to Lakewood, where he made 3 appearances, giving up 4 runs in 8 innings, allowing 10 hits and 5 walks to go along with 10 strikeouts. All in all, a huge season for Brauer, not only in his numbers, but in recovering from the most deadly injury a pitcher can have.

Clearly, the Phillies feel like they got a steal in Brauer in the 6th round. As I mentioned above, he wasn’t the most heralded pitcher on his team, falling behind Yankees draft pick George Kontos, who has a livelier fastball, but is also probably further away from making an impact at the big league level, and who might end up as only a reliever based on a lack of secondary pitches. What Brauer lacks in shear velocity he makes up for with his command and pitchability. Some people aren’t as high on him as me, and suggest he is ticketed to become a reliever in the near future, but I tend to disagree there. Before his surgery, his command was solid, and he was striking out people with relative ease. His control was a bit shaky in college in 2006, but that’s to be expected in trying to recover from major arm surgery. He doesn’t allow many home runs, and based on his short 60 inning sample from pro ball, he had over a 2:1 groundball to flyball ratio, though he did allow his share of line drives. His splits don’t indicate lefthanded specialist, as he had a .779 OPS allowed to LH batters and a .555 OPS allowed to RH batters. As I’ve emphasized in past write-ups, when you see a pitcher with better numbers against his opposite side, it’s normally an indication of a strong changeup and a not so strong breaking ball. In Brauer’s case, it might be just him getting unlucky, as his BABIP against LH batters was an abnormally high .412, with the “average” being somewhere between .275-.300.

So, what to expect in 2007. It’s my belief Brauer will remain a starter until he either A.) Struggles at a higher level, or B.) The Phillies deem it necessary to bring him up to the bigs and use him in relief due to injury/shortage of arms. Normally teams will leave guys in the rotation until there is a need to move them, and in Brauer’s case, there doesn’t appear to be a need to move him. He handled short season Batavia with ease, and could very well be skipped over Lakewood and go straight to Clearwater, depending on the rotation situations at both spots. If he continues to regain his control, which was ok at 3.29 BB/9, there’s no reason to believe he won’t move quickly through the system. He could end up in Reading either at the end of 2007 or mid 2008, and who knows from there, depending on the role the Phillies have in mind for him. Having pitched with extreme pain in his arm in 2004, we know he’s a fierce competitor, and if fully healthy, I think his future is quite bright going forward.

Finally, we have some video on him. If the video messes up the formatting of this page, I’ll remove it from the page and just link it, so if it disappears momentarily or the page looks funny, have no fear, I’m on the case.

His fastball sits in the high 80’s here, but some reports indicated he was in the 90-91 range near the end of the season as he was regaining full strength in his arm. He features the slow 69-72 mph curveball, ala Randy Wolf, which he can throw for strikes, as well as his slider and change, which we don’t really see on the video. The thing that I think is most important, from watching him pitch, is that he has a very simple, repeatable delivery which doesn’t appear to put much stress on his arm. He doesn’t seem to fly out of control or have a lot of extraneous movements, which probably bodes well for him going forward when considering consistency.

Happy Monday. Having seen snow for the first time this winter, I think I’ve already seen enough. Inside and warmed up, let’s crank out a piece on one of the most under the radar high draft picks I can remember, one Andrew Carpenter. The Phillies selected the RHP in the second round, #65 overall, in the 2006 draft out of Long Beach State. Carpenter had one season left of eligibility after transferring in to LBSU for his junior year, but chose to sign with the Phillies for $570,000. Like many of my fellow draft/minor league junkies, this pick caught us a little off guard, as all of the drama was surrounding our selection at #18, and then taking Adrian Cardenas in the sandwich round, who was projected to go a few rounds later. At this pick, I really had no clue who the Phillies would take, though I feared they’d begin taking the toolsy outfielders like Jared Mitchell, who was rumored to be on the Phillies wishlist in the compensation round. The selection of Carpenter, a college pitcher, seemed to go against the Phillies general philosophy of taking raw, projectable high school arms, and to be honest, I didn’t know a great deal about him. Couple all of that together, and I was a bit disappointed in the pick at first, based on my own lack of knowledge on Carpenter, if nothing else.

Carpenter signed a few weeks later, but he didn’t report to any of the our minor league teams immediately, and he showed up on the GCL Phillies roster online first, which was a surprise. Most college pitchers skip right over the GCL level and head to the short season league, in the Phillies case, the New York-Penn League. Carpenter was the Saturday starter for LBSU and threw a ton of innings (117.2), but he wasn’t used in relief, which helped save some wear and tear on his arm. Nevertheless, he was shut down for quite a while after being drafted, which isn’t too uncommon, especially for the Phillies. He made two appearances with the GCL Phillies, pitching only 3 innings , giving up 0 runs, 2 hits, 0 walks and striking out 4. He was shuttled off to Batavia, where he got a little more work in, starting 3 games, pitching 11 innings, allowing 1 run, 10 hits, 5 walks, and striking out 12.

It’s obviously tough to figure out anything by looking at his brief 15 innings of work, but he did strike out 16 in 14 innings, he allowed fewer hits than innings, and walked only 5 in 15 innings. I guess that’s not bad, but the sample is so small, it’s tough to figure out what “bad” might have been. Most importantly, the Phillies handled him carefully because of the college workload, and he didn’t appear to pick up any knocks, so he should be ready to go in 2007. At this point, I have him projected to start at Clearwater, but I really am not confident in that guess. The Lakewood rotation looks to be quite crowded, with Drabek, Garcia, Pfinsgraff, Brauer, Concepcion, and Dubee all likely candidates, as well as Andrew Cruse and possibly Walter Tejeda. Considering Carpenter’s polish, it makes sense that they’d skip him to Clearwater over any of those other names, age and experience considered.

Now, to what Carpenter actually throws. He features a low 90’s fastball that he locates well, as well as a hard slider and a split finger fastball, both of which grade out to be slightly above average pitches. He also used a curveball in college and a changeup at times, but both are average offerings, and he’ll probably scrap his curveball going forward and focus on just the slider. His changeup will probably need the most work, but his splitter will help neutralize LH batters. The Phillies considered him a “safe” pick on one hand, because he lacks true dominant stuff that would project him to be a front of the rotation starter, but because of his durability, his solid pitching aptitude, and his array of pitches, he might be a bit better than an innings-eater at the back of the rotation. He doesn’t have the electric fastball/curveball combination of Kyle Drabek, but he does have more experience, a better understanding for pitching (at this point), and much more polish, which makes him a safer bet going forward, just not the #1 starter potential of Drabek.

Carpenter is an interesting guy to watch, because really, he has been under the radar. If his combination of stuff and approach to the game translate well, he could become a good #2/#3 starter at some point down the road. He’s probably going to get a full season at High A this year, start at AA next year, and then possibly make a case for ML action in 2009, maybe even near the end of 2008, depending on how things go. His worst case right now is as a power reliever, his best case is the aforementioned #2/#3 starter.

Let’s see if that works. If not (I think it messed up the formatting earlier) I’ll just post the URL link. He shows his fastball, reaching 96, as well as his splitter.

Welcome to the second installment of Make or Break 2007. Joining Tim Moss on my “on notice” list is 2003 draftee Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick, a seventh round pick in 2003, has four years of time in, and with the new CBA rules regarding the minors, Kendrick will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after 2007 if he isn’t placed on the 40 man roster. A 6’3, 185 lb right hander from Washington, Kendrick has yet to really assert himself in his 4 seasons in the system, but his 2006 was a step in the right direction. Kendrick was a tremendous athlete in high school, playing baseball, basketball and football, and eventually turned down a scholarship to Washington State to begin his baseball career. The Phillies loved his long frame and live arm, and figured he’d learn the nuances of pitching as he progressed. Even more so, there was quite a bit made about his strong character and aptitude, and the Phillies felt he had the total package needed to be a successful pitcher.

Things didn’t start so well for Kyle. He struggled in 2003 after being drafted, posting a 5.46 ERA in 31 innings at the GCL Level. He split time at Batavia and Lakewood in 2004, and the results were worse, with a 5.48 ERA at Batavia in 70 innings, and a more painful 6.07 ERA at Lakewood in 66 innings. He gave up 179 hits and 51 walks, compared to only 89 K in 133 innings combined over the two levels. Kendrick saw time at three different levels in 2005

Batavia: 91.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 94 H, 22 BB, 70 K
Lakewood: 22.2 IP, 9.13 ERA, 38H, 10 BB, 11 K
Clearwater: 4 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 2 BB, 1 K

His progress at Batavia was somewhat encouraging, but his first taste of full season ball didn’t go the way he’d have liked. In 2006, the Phillies decided to start him at Lakewood and see what happened. In 46 innings, he posted a nice 2.15 ERA, allowing only 34 H and 18 BB, against 54 K’s. The Phillies bumped him up to Clearwater, and he performed surprisingly well, with a 3.53 ERA in 130 innings, allowing 117 H, 37 BB, and striking out 79. He finished the season in the AFL league, where he struggled a bit, albeit in only 10 innings. His 2006 represents a huge improvement to actually getting results on the field, and because 2006 was only his age 22 season, he’s still in the prospect territory. In my overall top 30, he’d be somewhere between 22-28, simply because I’m not sure what to expect from him going forward, the 2005 version or the 2006 version.

Kendrick is basically a three pitch pitcher, featuring a fastball that sits around 90-93 with good movement, an average changeup, and a slider. He originally threw a slow curveball, but the pitch was inconsistent and he wasn’t able to get many swings and misses, especially ahead in counts, so the Phillies had him scrap the curve late in 2005 and switch to the slider. If the 2006 results are an indication, it was a wise move to switch. The movement on his fastball enables him to get a lot of ground balls, as he had a 1.79 GB to FB ratio in 2006, and he had a solid 0.77 HR/9 rate in 2006. He was tougher on righties than lefties, but not by a margin that suggests he’d be better suited to relief at this point. He does still appear to lack the true qualities of a strikeout pitcher, which could spell some trouble going forward.

Kendrick seems like a lock to start the season in the Reading rotation, and it will represent a huge test for him. He initially struggled when promoted to full season ball, but in 2006 he handled the move from Low A to High A well, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the move to Reading. He’ll be playing in a tougher park for pitchers than he did at Clearwater, and a league that generally promotes a little more offense in the Eastern League than he was accustomed to in the Florida State League. With a strong season, he will almost assuredly find his way onto the 40 man roster come November, and he may get a spot either way, because the Phillies have invested a lot of time in him, and he has shown signs of improvement. However, if he is intent on making a big league contribution, not just the 40 man roster, he’s going to need to step up in 2007 and prove what he can do at Reading.

If you’ve been following the Phillies big league club this season, you’ve heard Fabio Castro’s name mentioned quite a bit, and you’ve probably heard various stories about his role in 2007. I don’t think anyone really knows at this point where he’s going, with some reports saying the starting rotation at AA or AAA, and some saying he’s going to end up in the Phillies bullpen. For those who didn’t know, Castro was acquired by the Phillies last season for Dan Haigwood, who was part of the Jim Thome deal. But because Castro was acquired in the Rule 5 draft from Chicago (by Kansas City, then traded to Texas), he had to remain on the Phillies 25 man roster all season. At times, we debated putting Fabio’s picture on a milk carton last season, because he pitched very infrequently, mainly because the Phillies felt he wasn’t ready to pitch in the big leagues with any kind of consistency.

Castro was originally signed by the Chicago White Sox out of the Dominican Republic as a free agent in 2001, at the tender age of 16. He didn’t make his US debut until 2003 in the Appalachian League. In 123 minor league games, over the span of 213 innings, Castro put up a quality 2.41 ERA, allowing only 160 hits, with 95 walks and 218 K’s, and allowed only 11 home runs. He obviously has the talent, but because he was so young and raw, he didn’t move quickly through the minors, and Chicago just ran out of space in their system. The Royals took him and then immediately traded him to Texas for Esteban German. He was traded to the Phillies on June 29th, and from there, began his participation in the baseball version of the Witness Protection Program. Castro pitched very infrequently, mainly in blowout games, and normally only 1 inning at a time. He ended up logging 23 innings for the Phillies, posting a 1.54 ERA, allowing 12 hits, 6 walks, 1 HR and striking out 13. The Phillies successfully kept him on the 25 man roster all season, and he is now Phillies property, on their 40 man roster.

But, even though we know all of that, we still don’t know where he’s going in 2007. While he showed he can pitch at the big league level, he was kept out of most high leverage situations, and the one memory Phillies fans probably have of him is the grand slam he allowed late in the season. The early talk involved putting him the starting rotation at either Reading or Scranton. This idea has merit, because Castro’s stuff, while good, could use improvement, especially his slider, which is an average at best pitch. Developing his slider pitching every few days for an inning might be tough, and the Phillies think he has a good enough arm to be a starter at some point. Since starters have more value than relievers, if he has the capability, it might not be a bad avenue to explore. With the Phillies having six starters now, and three other guys with more seasoning (Happ, Segovia and Germano) lined up to fill in, Fabio could stay in the minors this season and get 150 or 160 innings in as a starter to really fine tune his stuff.

On the other hand, if he experiences similar success in 2007 as he did in 2006, he could provide a solid arm in the Phillies pen. With teams eager to shell out 4 million, sometimes more, for setup guys, having Castro, who makes the league minimum, could prove to be a very profitable decision, based on production to cost. The danger here, of course is that he will be underused in relief, his pitches will lose their sharpness, and his development as a pitcher will be stunted. It’s not an easy decision, and it’s one that will probably be made in Spring Training. As of now, Castro would be competing with the likes of Bisenius, Warden, Simon, and others. Warden and Simon are both Rule 5 picks this year, which means they probably have a leg up, since Castro has options left and those guys must be kept on the 25 man roster.

Looking at Fabio’s stuff, it’s clear why Gillick wanted him, and maybe sacrificed the roster spot to keep him. Only 5’8, 160 lbs, Castro still has a big fastball, sitting at 91-92 and hitting 94 on occasion. He located his fastball reasonably well in the games he pitched for the Phillies, but he could probably use a little work on commanding it consistently to different quadrants of the strike zone. His changeup is a beauty, featuring late fade and break, giving him an equalizer against RH batters. His slider, as I mentioned above, is fringy now, showing inconsistent break and tilt, but will come around as he uses it more. In 2006, he dominated left handed batters, holding them to a 0.74/.188/0.74 line, allowing only 2 hits and 4 walks against the 32 batters he faced. He was tough on righties too, holding them to a .202/.297/.304 line, allowing 16 H and 9 BB against the 92 batters he faced.

Gillick, since taking over, hasn’t been afraid to challenge younger players, whether it be with aggressive promotions in the minors or throwing guys like Matt Smith into major league roles. With Castro, he really has a tough decision to make. 2007 will be his age 22 season, so he is still really young, age wise, but has already been in pro ball since 2003, so this will be his fifth professional season. If he can master his breaking ball and turn it into a third average/above average pitch, he could profile as a #4 starter going forward. If he is thrown into the ML bullpen now, he has the potential to be a solid 7th inning reliever. The people who get paid money to make these decisions obviously have a tough one to make.

If the Phillies don’t acquire another reliever, then I think Castro has a good chance to make the bullpen out of ST if he performs well. If they trade Jon Lieber for a reliever, which I still think they will, then Castro will probably start the year in the AA rotation. While this might seem like a “step back” for him, I think this might actually benefit him in the long run, and pay larger dividends to the Phillies in the long run. He’s only 22, he has a great arm, it would be a shame to see him only used in middle relief if he were capable of more. We’ll probably know more in 6 weeks, and we can revisit it then. What we do know is, Fabio has a bright future, regardless of the role he’s playing.

I’ve gotten a lot of interest in Mike Costanzo, whether it be emails, comments, or just how people are finding this site, so I felt I needed to give him some face time. I think he’s a year away from me having to call this his “make or break season”, so we won’t lump him in there just yet. First, some background. I’m sure that most people who follow the minor leagues at all know that Costanzo is a local product, coming from the Springfield area, and was the Phillies first pick in the 2005 draft, which because of the Jon Lieber signing in 2004, didn’t come until the second round. He played third base for three seasons at Coastal Carolina, and being selected by the Phillies, was a feel good homecoming story, much to the delight of the media, who get paid to write such feel good stories.

Third base inside the Phillies organization, from the top down, has been somewhat of a black hole since the departure of one Scott Rolen. The Phillies thought they might have struck gold with Welinson Baez, a free agent signed out of the Dominican Republic, but his 2006 looked nothing like his 2005, and he has to be thought of as a question mark at best going forward. Other than Baez, there really wasn’t much to brag about in the organization at the hot corner, so the drafting of Costanzo looked like a good idea. Consider his batting line at Coastal Carolina in his sophomore and junior years

2004: .359/.479/.740, 21 HR, 74 RBI
2005: .379/.525/.658, 16 HR, 67 RBI

Also, he posted a 2.13 ERA in 55 innings pitched, with 69 K to only 24 walks.

Costanzo looked intriguing as a possible reliever as well, but the Phillies were convinced that he was better suited to third base, a position the organization lacked depth in, and that he could possibly be the answer to our third problems at the major league level in a few years. Upon being drafted, like most college guys, he was sent to Batavia. His line was respectable, not great, but not bad for having played a full season of college ball then going to pro ball:

.274/.356/.473, 11 HR, 50 RBI

The Phillies double jumped him, choosing to send him to Clearwater to start 2006. For young 19 year old players, the double jump is often a really big test. For college guys, however, skipping Low A should not be as big an issue, as they played against more advanced competition in college (most of them anyway) and should be able to adapt in a more timely fashion. Costanzo didn’t enjoy that type of success, as he started off the first two months of the season in rough form

April: .240/.302/.396
May: .233/.319/.340

At this point, many of us who follow the minors closely started to groan and already write off the mighty Costanzo. However, he responded over the next three months, showing gradual improvement

June: .247/.352/.344
July: .234/.359/.421

That may not look like improvement, but his plate discipline began to return, as he drew 34 walks in June in July compared to the combined 16 he drew in April and May. He also drastically cut down on his strikeouts, K’ing only 46 times in June and July compared to 63 times in April and May. Then, August came…

August: .327/.465/.525

Wow, talk about pulling a 180. Obviously he saw his numbers improve drastically, aided by his .387 BABIP, but also another really positive indicator surfaced. From April through July, he was hitting more balls on the ground than in the air. For a power hitter, that’s probably not a good thing. Check out his progression

April: 30 GB, 24 FB (1.25)
May: 40 GB, 18 FB (2.22)
June: 32 GB, 28 FB (1.14)
July: 47 GB, 29 FB (1.62)
August: 28 GB, 40 FB (0.70)

Costanzo, in college, was a power hitter. Since turning pro, however, the power just hasn’t been there, either in the form of consistent home run power or even good doubles power. His .473 slugging % at Batavia was okay, but against tired high school and college arms, he probably should have been around .525 or so, especially considering his college performance. In August, it seemed like he really turned it on, but we don’t know if he “figured it out” or just caught lightning in a bottle, because the season ended. At this point, he is still struggling against LHP, putting up a miserable .191/.308/.388 line against southpaws in 110 AB’s, compared to .277/.371/.442 in 394 AB against RHP.

Defensively, he was well thought of coming out of college, but struggled at Batavia in 2005, committing 21 errors in 69 games. In 2006, he “improved” by committing only 25 errors in 135 games. Obviously he is going to need to sharpen his game. Looking at his small sample pitching-wise, arm strength doesn’t seem to be the problem, and it is more than likely going to be his range and instincts that limit him defensively. Because the organization is so weak at 3B, he is going to be given every chance to improve and succeed there. It’s tough to measure defense at the major league level, let alone measure defense in the New York Penn League or the Florida State League, so let’s not put too much weight on his defense just yet. The Phillies haven’t talked of moving him off third yet (that I know of), so he’ll be there for the foreseeable future.

So then, 2007. Mike will open the season, his age 23 season, as the starting 3B at Reading. At 23, he needs to be in AA, and he needs to put up a season in the .820-.860 OPS range to remain a prospect worth watching. It’s certainly not unrealistic to expect a .280/.370/.470 season from him at Reading. Parkwise, Reading plays fairly well for hitters:

Runs: 1.08
Hits: 0.98
2B: 0.82
HR: 1.33
BB: 1.17
K: 1.03

Again, 1.00 is “average”

Costanzo, if he gets close to 500 AB, should hit 23-25 HR, especially if he can maintain his fly ball tendencies that he “discovered” in August. What Reading takes away in doubles it appears to more than add in home runs. If Mike steps up this season and has a big year, he could be pushing for playing time in Philly in 2008 at some point, but should be primed for time in 2009. Of course, that’s a long way away, and he needs to avoid starting the season with two sub .700 OPS numbers like he did in 2006. The Reading team should be fun to watch, with the pitchers climbing the ladder and Costanzo manning the hot corner. I had him ranked in my 11-15 range a few weeks ago, but if he puts up the type of season I described above, he’ll be pushing for a spot in the top 5 or 6 at this time next year. Time will tell.

In June, if you’d have told me that I’d be writing a piece gushing praise towards D’Arby Myers and proclaiming him “the next big thing”, I’d have laughed you right out of the room. As I expressed in previous entries here, I am ALWAYS skeptical of guys the Phillies draft as “athletes who need to learn to play baseball”, and at first blush, that’s exactly what D’Arby Myers seemed to me. Now, here I am, 7 months later, getting ready to write what will probably look like the biggest puff piece I’ve ever written. It’s funny how one guy can make you forget about years and years of mistakes, even if that suspended cynicism could rear it’s ugly head at some point down the road. But, as I clarified before, we’re all just projecting and guessing, so why not hold out a little hope for now?

For those who don’t know him, Myers was drafted out of high school in the 4th round and signed three weeks after the draft. He certainly fit the mold the Phillies look for in high school athletes, he’s already 6’3, 175 lbs, wiry strong, and looks like the perfect projection guy to add 30 pounds and an inch or two and turn into a physical specimen. He’s a superior athlete, having played baseball, football, basketball and even hockey in high school, but he ended up always coming back to baseball. Myers was recruited and signed a letter of intent to USC, based partly on his really strong academic background (4.0 GPA) and his good high school performance, where he hit over .460 in both his junior and senior years. Because of his academic prowess as well as his baseball abilities, the scholarship to Southern California was seen as an obstacle by many teams, and he slid to the 4th round. In what would become a trend in the Phillies 2006 draft, they took a shot, and surprisingly, got Myers signed in only 3 weeks, which has to be seen as somewhat of a coup.

Before we go on about Myers and everything he offers, we need to address why I called him “the Phillies winning lottery ticket” in the title of this article. Guys like Myers, that is, the raw high school athlete, fail much more in pro ball than they succeed. Every year, every team drafts a bunch of guys like Myers, guys they think COULD become the next big thing, but the reality is, many of them don’t, simply because playing the game of baseball, and more specifically, teaching the nuances of the game of baseball, is not an easy task, and in most cases, just being a good athlete isn’t enough. In the Phillies case, their record of drafting guys like Myers is simply awful. Reggie Taylor and Greg Golson immediately come to mind, but there have been others (Shomari Beverley in 1997….who? Exactly) and in general, the Phillies just haven’t had any luck developing high school hitters. In fact, since the 1996 draft, the only high school hitter I can even think of that the Phillies have really succeeded with is Jimmy Rollins. One success in 10 years is hardly a solid track record. But, with Adrian Cardenas and D’Arby Myers, the Phillies might be onto something…..or they may have just gotten lucky, hence the “lottery ticket” analogy.

Just one more point on this, then I swear I’m going to start talking directly about Myers. Most teams draft guys like Myers and they never pan out, it’s not unique to the Phillies, but I know I’m not alone in wondering why it seems these guys show up in the GCL and seemingly can’t hit at all. Or, why we hear in the media that Greg Golson, with 2.5 years of pro ball experience, still has an “aluminum bat swing”, which to me, seems inexcusable. Some teams live and die by their farm system because they have to, teams like Minnesota and Oakland, but could it also be that these teams just have better teachers and instructors? Is it really a surprise that Minnesota churns out so much quality pitching? Many of the guys they bring up were not heralded as super stud prospects when they were drafted, but it seems like the teachers in the lower levels of the Minnesota system bring out the best in these prospects…..can we say the same about the Phillies? I’m not sure we can. That’s why a guy like Myers is so surprising to me, but at the same time, gives me hope that the Phillies might just be getting it.

Anyway, back to D’Arby. The fact that he signed so quickly was a surprise, but it also helped him, as it gave him more time to get adjusted to life in pro ball. Having not turned 18 until December, Myers played the entire GCL season at age 17, making him one of the youngest players in the league. So, we have a really young, really raw guy playing pro ball the summer after his senior year in high school….we shouldn’t expect too much, right? Well, most didn’t, and that’s why we’re so surprised. Myers final line was impressive

.313/.353/.430, 10 XBH, 13 RBI, 11/15 SB

The only area you could be somewhat concerned with is his 32 K’s in 128 AB’s, but all things considered, this is almost a zero worry type deal. What’s more impressive, though are his splits

June: .154/.267/.154 in 13 AB
July: .344/.382/.484 in 64 AB
August: .364/.364/.500 in 44 AB

He actually seemed to get stronger as the season was winding down. Maybe the most promising split is his ground ball to fly ball ratio. He had 49 GB to only 25 FB. He knows his strength, at this point, is to utilize his speed, and the best way to do that is to hit the ball on the ground.

The bigger issue, though, when looking at his numbers is his age….17. After the 2005 season, Yankees prospect Jose Tabata was considered one of the 50 or so best prospects in baseball, based on his GCL performance and his age, also 17 years old. In 2006, in low A, Tabata put up a .298/.377/.420 line, and was ranked the Yankees second best prospect, and will probably get some consideration for the Top 25 prospects in baseball lists. Here is a quick comparison of their respective numbers for their GCL seasons, both coming at age 17

Tabata: .314/.382/.417, 9 XBH, 25 RBI, 22/28 in SB in 156 AB
Myers: .313/.353/.430, 10 XBH, 13 RBI, 11/15 in SB in 128 AB

Pretty similar, yes? But there is one big different. Tabata is 5’10, 165 lbs, while Myers is 6’3, 175 lbs. What’s the difference? As Tabata gets older, he’s unlikely to grow more than a few more inches. Many scouts see his speed diminishing slightly as he fills out his frame and adds weight. He may develop more power, but Myers is a better bet to retain his speed, and because of it, has a better chance to remain a CF, while Tabata will likely be relegated to RF, because he does have a strong arm, but will lack the speed for CF. Tabata also has a slight edge in his plate discipline, drawing 15 walks to only 14 K’s his rookie year, while Myers drew only 7 walks to 32 strikeouts. Again, though, Myers is still learning the nuances like controlling the strike-zone, whereas Tabata was already an advanced hitter prior to coming to the GCL.

So, in the short term and in the long run, what are we looking at? We could be looking at the makings of a super star, or we could be looking at the next Reggie Taylor. Lets look at Myers’ numbers compared to Reggie Taylor and Greg Golson, the two suspects mentioned earlier.

Myers, age 17 (GCL): .313/.353/.430, 10 XBH, 13 RBI, 11/15 in SB in 128 AB
Taylor, age 18 (SS): .222/.301/.314, 12 XBH, 32 RBI, 18/25 in SB in 239 AB
Golson, age 18 (GCL): .295/.345/.410, 14 XBH, 22 RBI, 12/14 in SB in 183 AB

Now, lets look at the second year for both Taylor and Golson

Taylor, age 19 (A-): .263/.305/.327, 26 XBH, 31 RBI, 36/53 in SB in 499 AB
Golson, age 19 (A-): .264/.322/.389, 31 XBH, 27 RBI, 25/34 in SB in 375 AB

At this point in time, it looks like the Phillies could challenge Myers to a full season at Lakewood. The original plans were probably to keep him in short season ball in 2007 to help him get acclimated to pro ball, but with his outstanding showing in the GCL, the temptation to move him up and skip Williamsport is no doubt strong, and based on his baseball aptitude, might not be a bad move. Back in the summer, I advocated that he should probably start at Williamsport and then get bumped to Lakewood for the last month or so, but knowing what I know now, looking at the situation more closely, challenging him to a full season might just be the right idea. If he can put up a .375 OB% at Lakewood and increase his walk rate a bit, 2007 will be a major success, not even considering other parts of his game. In the next 2-3 years, his power should increase as he adds muscle and fills out, so that part of his game will come. The most important aspect for his future success is learning the strike zone and how to approach each at bat. If he can learn those skills, he’ll remain on the fast track.

Long term for D’Arby? Well, as cliche as it sounds, the sky is the limit. He has above average speed, an above average bat, plays a decent CF at such an early stage, and shows signs that he could hit for power. He basically has everything you look for in a star player. But of course, the warning has to be attached to this. He may not develop at all, and he may turn into the next Reggie Taylor. Every prospect has that chance, and Myers, as promising as he was in 2006, has the same possibility of failure as anyone else. It’s going to be exciting watching him develop, and at this time next year, everyone might be gushing over “the Great D’Arby Myers”…we can only hope.