Golson is all the rage these days with his fast start at Reading, and really, its hard not to get excited, even for Golson doubter #1 right here. We’ve all seen the flashes of what he can do, and invariably, he cools off. While he’s probably going to slow down at some point (everyone does), his fast 3 week start is certainly a promising sign. I wanted to look at his numbers right now, compared to his numbers from past seasons, and see if we can see something obvious. So, lets get to work…
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Tuesday thoughts…
Today I was thinking I’d share my biggest surprise of the young season, and ask you for your biggest surprise, whether its a player playing really well or a guy struggling. I know which guy most people are going to talk about, so instead I’ll go for a guy who has kind of flown under the radar, despite getting off to an excellent start. The Phillies jumped Matt Spencer over Lakewood, despite him not having the greatest of debuts, and so far, he’s responded.
2008 Mock draft, version 1.1
*disclaimer*
Mock drafts done two months before the draft are pretty much worthless, but as you know, I love thinking about the draft and trying to figure out what teams will do. So, I figured it would be fun to start looking at teams, consider their drafting strategies in years past, the available talent, and then start to think about how the chips will fall. Since the Phillies pick at #24, its highly unlikely we’ll have any idea what they are planning to do until we get a lot closer to the draft, but I enjoy these types of exercises anyway, so we’ll just go with it and then after the draft, we can look back on this and laugh
* end disclaimer*
So here goes
Brad Harman called up, Rollins to DL
Just figured I’d throw this up now. The Phillies finally did the right thing putting Jimmy Rollins on the DL. Brad Harman gets the call, and I can only imagine that is because Jason Donald still isn’t 100% after being hit on the hand a week ago. Harman has come a long way after a really disappointing 2006 to making his big league debut less than 2 years later. Heres hoping for all the best for Brad.
Outman v Carrasco
I meant to write this up yesterday, but I was sidetracked after the chat and then forgot to put it up last night. A commenter posted it, which reminded me to do it now. Yesterday in his chat, Jim Callis was asked whether he liked Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman more, and his response was…
Brian (Philly): Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman?
Jim: Beginning to think the answer to that one should be Outman.
Now this strikes me as somewhat strange. I don’t mind someone liking Outman a bit more, but nothing in their comparative numbers this year would indicate Outman should pull ahead of Carrasco, as Carrasco was again ranked higher by BA heading into this season.
Carrasco, Age 21: 11.0 IP — 8 H — 4 BB — 14 K — 2 HR — 0.55 GO: AO
Outman, Age 23: 17.0 IP — 18 H — 8 BB — 19 K — 0 HR — 0.68 GO:AO
The only statistical advantage Outman has over Carrasco is a few more groundballs at this point, and Carlos has allowed 2 HR. But Carrasco is 2 years younger than Outman, which is a really big consideration in this debate. Outman’s fastball is good for a lefty, with plus velocity, but his control is a real work in progress, as it has been since he came out of college. Carrasco hasn’t done anything to diminish his stock this season, and Outman hasn’t really blown the doors off just yet. Both guys still have work to do, neither guy is ready for the bigs just yet, and 2-3 starts is hardly a telling sample size. Anyway, its nice to see Outman is liked in the talent evaluation circles, but I still think Carlos gets the nod, at least until we have a significant 2008 sample worth analyzing.
The Iron Pigs win
I heard there were riots in the streets of Allentown last night after the first win of the season. I should probably not mention anything else in this post, for fear of detracting attention away from win #1 in franchise history. But because the Iron Pigs stink like, well, pigs, we’ll turn our attention to something a tad more important. Is something wrong with Andrew Carpenter? Something might be, and it might be something I’ve discussed at length in other places; the Rule of 30.
Joe Savery appears in the 10 Pack
I’m going to create a special little category on the left side along with the other features specifically for cataloging the appearances of Phillies prospects in Kevin Goldstein’s Monday Morning 10 Pack, as well as the Baseball America Hot Sheet, which I believe will be coming out on Friday’s now. Joe Savery popped up today
Joe Savery, lhp, High-A Clearwater (Phillies)
On a prospect level, it was the pitching matchup of the day on Sunday, as Lakeland and super-stud Rick Porcello paid a visit to Clearwater, who countered with their 2007 own first-round pick in Savery. While Porcello pitched well again, and got hurt once more by bad defense and occasional control lapses, Savery stole the show with eight shutout innings that included four strikeouts and 14 ground balls. After three starts, Savery has given up just two runs over 20 innings while limiting batters to a .217 average. While Carlos Carrasco is off to a fine start at Double-A, Savery’s left-handedness and groundball tendencies just might have him looking like the better prospect by the end of the season.
Monday musings
Rather than do a bunch of box score recaps, I wanted to instead talk about a few theoretical practices and things I’ve seen in comments over the last few days, as I think they are very important issues and have a direct impact on our farm system. Along those same lines, I wanted to kindly ask that we try and stay on topic within each post, as theres really no reason to be discussing whether the Phillies should re-sign Ryan Howard in a Clearwater Threshers related post. To combat this, I’ll make a post each day, even if its brief, to just quickly recap the action from the previous day, and then you can feel free to discuss any of the games from the current day in said post. So, if you want to discuss what happens in tonights games, you can do it here. Now, onto my musings
Thursday thoughts
Just a few brief discussion points
* Michael Durant is on fire. Durant just turned 21 in January, and while his pro career has been a disappointment to date, you gotta at least feel some sense of excitement over his 9/19, 2 HR start. Of course he’s also struck out 6 times and hasn’t walked. But yeah, 2 HR is nice.
* Jason Donald hasn’t played since being hit on the hand with a pitch. I’ve searched, I haven’t found an official diagnosis, I can only assume the Phillies are going to be cautious with him.
* Dan Brauer is back on the mound again, which is a good sign. I was really high on him heading into 2007, but his season was derailed because of injuries. He has labrum surgery in his past, which is always a worry, but hopefully he can remain healthy. If he does, and if the team moves him to relief, he could be on the very fast track. He’s already 24, so time is of the essence.
* Out of the shackles of pitcher friendly Lakewood, Adrian Cardenas is lighting the FSL up, going 13/29 with 3 2B to open the season. I pointed out last year that his home/road splits indicated he would see a bump in Clearwater, so far so good.
Time to start thinking about the draft
As the minor league season kicks off and the rest of the phuturephillies team begins to flex their muscle with reports from their respective affiliates, I’m going to shift my writing to more analytical pieces, and for the next 2 months, I’m going to focus a lot of energy on the draft. My goal is to again have a Q/A with Jim Salisbury as we get closer to draft day, and also to start looking at potential draftees. I know there are a few big draft fans here, so hopefully we can get some interaction going on that front, even though its still 2 months away. The Phillies first few draft picks look like this;
#24
#34
#51
#71
#102
#109 (supplemental pick after 3rd round for failing to sign Workman)
So, with 6 picks in the first 109, the Phillies have a chance to add a lot of quality, the question, as it always is, will they be willing to spend? More below the fold..
Phuture Phillies 