Three weeks ago, I rolled out version 1.1 of my mock draft, so I figured it was time to do a bit more digging, try and find some more info that might make the pick a bit more clear, and then make a few necessary updates. To be clear, I have no inside information here, its based strictly on looking at players available and then the team’s past drafting history. I’ve compiled first and supplemental first round data for all 30 teams from 2003-2007, in hopes of finding patterns which might make this a bit easier. Of course, teams can always throw a curveball and do something unexpected, and even the most detailed mock drafts done days before will have things out of place. But thats part of the fun. So, for each pick, I’ll give my updated pick, my last pick for the team, and the under each team a brief analysis of past drafts. If you’ve found my site and you support another team, please chime in if I’ve missed anything, if you have some info on who the team is leaning towards, etc etc. So, lets get going
All posts by giventofly41
Mathieson to have 2nd surgery?
The news on Mathieson isn’t good.
He’ll visit Dr. James Andrews for an arthroscopic procedure Thursday in Birmingham, Ala., though there’s a good chance Mathieson will need another ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction.
Mathieson said he was told by Andrews that a scope might solve the issue, which would keep him out for a shorter time frame. He’s not ready to concede his season, yet.
“I’ll wake up [Thursday] and I’ll either be out four to six weeks or a year,” Mathieson said by phone.
There really isn’t a lot else to say. Its a shame to see a promising arm struggle with injuries, especially right after he reached the big leagues. We can just hope that he doesn’t need a second TJ, and if he does, that he can recover quickly.
Naylor, Taylor Make Ten Pack
Kevin Goldstein highlights two Phillies prospects in his latest Ten pack;
Drew Naylor, rhp, Low-A Lakewood (Phillies)
Don’t know the name? Maybe you should, because he’s suddenly the new minor league strikeout leader. A 22-year-old Australian, Naylor entered the season a bit of an unknown, but he’s putting himself on the map with six straight quality starts, including an 11-strikeout performance last week, and then his best start of the year on Saturday night–-a complete-game two-hitter with 12 strikeouts against just one walk–-lowering his ERA to 2.04 in 53 innings with 62 strikeouts and just 34 hits allowed. Naylor is an interesting player from a scouting level, as he has no dominant offering, but plenty of good ones. His fastball has average velocity and good movement, his curveball and change are both above average, and all of his pitches play up because of excellent command. His relative baseball inexperience makes him a little old for the level, but he should be in the Florida State League soon.
and
Michael Taylor, OF, Low-A Lakewood (Phillies)
During his high school days at Florida, Taylor was a monster, standing six-foot-six and 250 pounds and featuring plenty of athleticism for his size; only a firm commitment to Stanford prevented him from being drafted. His college career was disappointing, but many in the scouting industry didn’t put the majority of blame on Taylor, they put it on a Stanford program that has a reputation for creating hitting clones, forcing most players into a quick, single-plane hitting mechanic that frankly just doesn’t work for everyone. Still in love with his potential, the Phillies made him a fifth-round pick last year, and allowed him to return to his natural swing. So far that’s more than paying off, as the monstrous right fielder has homered in four straight games to raise his averages to .333/.410/.524 in 33 games for the BlueClaws. When you are looking for sleepers in the minors, you’d be best served by betting on tools, so put some chips down on Taylor.
Is Happ ready to step in?
It’s Monday, that means its time for a discussion question. JA Happ is one of the few reasons to check the Lehigh Valley box scores. After a rough 2007, largely marred by injury, Happ has come out in much better fashion this season;
46.1 IP — 2.72 ERA — 34 H — 23 BB — 55 K — 4 HR — 1.35 GO/AO
Happ’s 2.72 ERA is probably a bit low considering the number of base runners allowed coupled with the 4 HR. His biggest problem is still the free pass. He’s walked 12 in his last 25.1 innings over 5 starts, and before that had walked 5 guys in back to back starts. Is it a case of true wildness, or is he just nibbling too much? The swings and misses are still there, that’s evident in the strikeout numbers, but are the walks due to his not having control/command of his pitches, or a case of him trying to be too fine? Last season in his major league debut he was nibbling way too much. Obviously he was fighting nerves that day, but its something he’s going to have to work on to be successful. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he needs to be aggressive and cut down on the walks.
So, at what point will Happ be ready to step into the rotation?
Jason Donald makes the Hot Sheet
Another week, another Phillie makes the grade
Donald has quietly had a productive first full season in the big leagues last year, hitting .310/.409/.447 in 238 plate appearances with low Class A Lakewood and .300/.386/.491 in 336 plate appearances with high Class A Clearwater. The success has carried over into 2008 for Donald, who in 23 games is hitting .337/.444/.470. Donald is a selective hitter with a line-drive swing, but some scouts question whether he will be able to stay at shortstop or whether he has the hitting tools to ever become more than just a utility man. In an organization that boasts Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley in the middle of its big league infield—and with Utley signed through 2013, Rollins through 2010 with a club option for 2011—it’s not quite the ideal situation for Donald, but he is increasing his value with every productive game.
Again with the utility player tag. Sometimes BA underrates until its too late, but we’ll see where Donald ends up at the end of this season.
There will be a chat at BA at 2:30 Eastern.
Keith Law ESPN Chat, 1 PM
Im going to try and post links and updates from now on when I find prospect related chats, so hopefully we can get Phillies questions answered. Today, KLaw is doing a chat at 1PM Eastern, and hes normally good for an hour and a half or so. Get your questions in, hopefully we can get a few answered, and I’ll update this post with any Phillies related nuggets.
Jason Donald watch
The kid is on FIRE since coming back from his hand injury. His overall season line now looks like this
80 AB: .350/.453/.488 — 12 BB, 17 K, 4 SB
The only “downside” is just 6 extra base hits. But we’re nitpicking now. He’s quickly adapted to AA, the toughest jump for a prospect, and is hitting the ball extremely well. Now, do we ask him to give 3B a try at Reading?In any event, hes elevating his profile, whether it means hes our utility infielder next year or used in a deal to acquire a player of need for the big league club.
Please welcome our newest contributor
Dan Romano has joined the team, and will be helping out with the weekly Lakewood report. I want to say thanks to all of those who inquired, we had over a half dozen responses in just a day. Dan has experience using WordPress, so he had an inside track here, and I look forward to his contributions. I’ll keep all of you who got in touch with me in mind for future projects, of which I’m sure there will be many. Thanks again for all of the inquires.
Looking for a Lakewood contributor
Bob, our Lakewood go getter this season, hasn’t had as much time as originally anticipated because of other commitments, so I’m looking for someone to help out with a once a week Lakewood report. You don’t need to live in Lakewood or go to Blueclaws games, obviously that would be a plus, but all you really need is internet access, to check the box scores and newspaper every day, keep tabs with the team, and then write a 3-4 paragraph entry once a week, on Tuesdays, to just give an overview of the last week’s worth of action, cover basic transactions, etc etc. If you’re interested, drop me a line (email is at the top right) and put “Lakewood Correspondent” or something similar in the title. Thanks.
Mathieson update
As you may or may not have seen, the news on Scott Mathieson is not good. Per Scott Lauber
Just got finished writing this for The Paper, but I want to post it here, too. Scott Mathieson’s string of tough luck seemingly won’t stop. Mathieson, a hard-throwing 24-year-old right-hander, could be headed for his third elbow surgery in less than three years. He felt tightness in his elbow two weeks ago while long-tossing, and after being examined separately by noted orthopedic surgeons Dr. Lew Yocum and Dr. James Andrews, those doctors are going to meet with Phillies physician Dr. Michael Ciccotti to discuss a course of action.
Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said the Phillies hope to have a verdict by Wednesday, but he said another surgery is “a possibility.”
Uh.
Next time someone says “its just Tommy John surgery, he’ll be ok”, point them to Scott Mathieson and ask him how he feels. I think this basically means his 2008 is lost, and probably a chunk of next season too. A shame, because he definitely could have had an impact this year.
Also, can someone tell me why Pat Gillick isn’t sharing this news with us? Are we experiencing a Weekend at Bernies thing here?
Phuture Phillies 