Open Discussion–Week of October 27th

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This weeks open discussion thread….A couple of quick newsworthy items today:

–RP  BJ Rosenberg was outrighted off the 40 man roster by the Phils and can now test the free agent market.

–RP Nefi Ogando and CF Roman Quinn were both named to the Arizona Fall League All Star team

–I have spent considerable time this week searching inside myself trying to figure out how Jayson Nix has landed on a team playing in the World Series.  The rest of my time since yesterday has been spent wondering how the hell a receiver can get behind two defenders on a 3rd and long with less than two minutes left in a football game.  Sorry, small diversion.

218 thoughts on “Open Discussion–Week of October 27th”

  1. Quinn’s avg is low but his obp is fine and he has 10 steals and 10 runs scored in about 13 games which is terrific.

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    1. The average is low but if he heads out there and goes 4-4 next game he’s suddenly batting over .300.

      The concern I have is not his average, but the lack of extra base hits. Would love to see him pick up for more of those because so far from what I have read he has not hit the ball with a lot of authority so far.

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          1. Power is not important to me. I would rather see Quinn get on base and create havoc through stolen bases forcing pitchers to change how they approach the 2-4 hitters and help create blowout innings.

            I will leave the power to the middle of the lineup guys.

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            1. I believe, just a guess, that chewy59 is hoping for something more then the ‘Revere-effect’ when he posts about hoping for XBH power for Quinn.

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            2. A lead off hitter’s ability to get on base is greatly enhanced if the threat of real power is there. Or else, you have Ben Revere

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  2. Yep, I know that some people on this site have stated in the past that there’s no way that Quinn makes any Top 100 lists, but I’m starting to wonder. Speed is back in fashion. Not that his ranking matters one way or another in the long run, he was the #100 prospect before and fell off the list, but if the Phillies were to get four guys on the list (Franco, Crawford, Nola, Quinn), one of whom will probably be consensus Top 15, that’s a good farm system.

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    1. I don’t disagree but I think what hurts him is the SSS of him in CF. Probably not enough time to truly guage his defensive prospects at the position.

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      1. Its strange to me to talk about SSS with him in cf. He is a cf. That’s what he played in HS. And it plays into his strong tools of speed and arm. As soon as hi switched from ss to cf he made his path to the majors a year shorter. To me he has one of the highest ceilings in the system.

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        1. I agree on the ceiling. I mean purely from an evaluation standpoint that supports a top 100 ranking. What he did in HS is irrelevant for that purpose.

          I don’t think there is a sufficient book on him professionally in CF to offer much a projection in that regard which will likely keep him off the list.

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          1. I think I would just disagree with the fact that there isn’t much book on him. If an pro scout watches him for a series he would walk away with 3 thoughts on his projection. 1. What kind of reads he gets in CF. I’m guessing they are average to above average based on the fact that CF is his natural position he grew up playing. 2. He is one of the fastest players, if not the fastest players in the minor league that could make up for him having below average reads, if that is the case. (just see Ben Revere, who I think is probably slower than quinn) 3. Has a good to above average arm.

            Put that together an what do you have. The projection to be one of the top 5-10 CF in the game defensively at his ceiling. Add in the top of the order potential and you have an easy top 100 guy.

            Now is he going to get there. I don’t know but based on the past couple years I think his floor is already 4th outfielder.

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  3. Sad news over the weekend with the passing of Oscar Taveras and his girlfriend (or friend) Ydelia Arvelos (only 18 years old) . . I always look forward to seeing young talented baseball players and even tho he struggled this year I think most knew he had the potential to be an elite player. Thoughts are with both families, their friends, the cardinals organization, their fans and the fans of baseball in general. Such a tragic loss.

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  4. Already 4 comments and no mention of Tomas. I’ll start. He’ll cost someone $100M plus. they’re talking about 7 years with maybe an opt-out in 5. Teams are staying in for a number of reasons. First, they want the guy. Second, they don’t want some team to pick him up cheap. Third, some teams have the money and the need and why not stick around to see if he drops in your lap.

    This has all-the-makings of another reason to dump on Amaro. Pay this guy $15M to $20M a year and if he only ends up a league average (or worse) and 3 to 4 years from now they’ll be talking about this being another worse move ever. I read that Law predicts he’ll be league average to slightly above. He’ll probably need most of next year in the minors. This isn’t a MAG type signing. People in Philly will want him to be in the majors from the get-go. The Phillies might bring him along too early and assist in his early demise. How will the kid take it in the boo-birds jump down his throat?

    It’s slightly better than a lottery ticket. Maybe a raffle ticket might be a better analogy. A lottery for a new BMW, where you pay $50 and they only sell 1,000 tickets. But this one costs $15M minimum and last 7 years.

    I’m not saying don’t do it but think about this long an hard. There aren’t many other options on the open market so trying to catch lightning in a bottle might quiet the fans for a little while. Maybe boost attendance as the Phils try to show they aren’t rebuilding– their retooling.

    Let’s get it started in here! (meaning the discussion)

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    1. I’m in on signing Tomas at min. of 6 or 7 years at the going rate, and if it is $15M per, then do it.
      Especially if the Phillies have to outbid the Mets or Tigers for his services.
      Maybe a few months at LHV then into LF at the ‘Bank’.
      The team needs to go youthful and at 24-years old next season he is a start in that direction.

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    2. I tend to agree almost entirely. The missing piece – not really a disagreement pe se – is the current financial dynamic in the game (burgeoning revenues on the one hand, versus an increasingly thin FA market because most talented young players are being locked up pre FA), combined with specific payroll dynamics on the part of the Phillies. In 2017, payroll obligations are only 34 million (Hamels plus Howard’s buy out). The young guys who will be filling out most of the remaining roster will cost very little at that point. Which leaves, depending upon the luxury tax threshold, well in excess of 120 million to spend upon free agents or trade targets or international players not subject to the spending pool.

      Bracket trade targets – I’m not expecting much there, as the team can’t afford to trade away prospects for veterans. Any trade acquisitions will be relatively cheap in terms of salary. If you’re participating on the FA market or the older international players market, you’re going to HAVE to overpay. I’d rather overpay for a young guy with upside than for a player in his 30s who can’t really go anywhere but downhill.

      Of course there’s a risk of a flame out. But that’s even more true of the FA market. Better the money be spent on risky overpays of SOME type, than not being spent at all.

      Which leaves the question of talent judgment – is Tomas the guy you want to overspend on? None of us can really judge that. We just need to rely (shudder) on the organization’s talent judgement.

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      1. Agreed. And to their apparent credit the club seems to get this, hence the recent looks in Cuba and Japan. But as you say other teams get this too and at some point the overpay becomes obscene and too much of a risk which could be the case with Tomas

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        1. The alternative to becoming respectable and contending again, if not via the Cuban/Japanese/Korean route of overspending, then is the model that the Pirates, Nationals and Royals employed……finish at the bottom for close to a decade or more and hope to get ‘superlative talent’ with high picks in the draft.
          The Cardinals, are one of the few teams, that could be used as an exception to the annual contenders longevity rule, since they rarely have picked high in the draft..

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          1. I don’t know the answer to this romus, think you would. Have the cardinals always got a extra draft picks for being small market. I think that was the term that was use in them getting a comp pick

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            1. rocco…I am talking about picking in the top ten, so to speak, in the draft. Players that have a truly higher upside of succeeding then those picked around the 35/40th pick area. Cardinals have not, for the most part, picked in the top ten or even fifteen, in a long time.

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            1. Isn’t that the same?
              How do you objectively draw the line between overspending and obscenely overspending?
              Isn’t the risk the same?

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      2. To commit myself a little more to an opinion on this:

        If “slightly above average major league regular” is the reasonable upside, don’t do it.

        But if that is a reasonable projection, as opposed to upside, with some additional upside possible (and of course downside risk as well), and the contract is “only” 15 million AAV, then pull the trigger. A 2.5 WAR player is worth 15 million. In the current inflated environment, that’s almost a bargain for a free agent. (Age enters into this; a 2.5 WAR player in his 30s might not get that, but that’s because of increased downside risk).

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        1. Eventually, one of these Cubans will turn out to be a bust, but so far basically all of them have met or exceeded their advance hype. (With the exception of MAG, who wasn’t so much a marquee defector as some dude who was pitching in the Mexican league that some teams including the Phillies took a look at.)

          So far, you haven’t seen one article saying, “meh” about Tomas, all of them have been prefaced on the notion that 1)he is the real deal; 2)he may be one of the last major talents to come out of that increasingly bare cupboard. Maybe that’s hype. But it gives me a little confidence at least that the Phillies aren’t way out on a limb in terms of talent evaluation. Of course, these same people were writing that MAG was a #3 starter who could be ready in time to contribute for the playoffs so…

          Caveat emptor? But I agree. Better to risk it on Tomas than Melky Cabrera.

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  5. I am not really in favor of Thomas because the market for Cuban free agents has skyrocketed with the success of Puig, Abreu, ect. So once again, Amaro is in a position where, if he were to sign Thomas, would be paying top dollar whereas if he got in on one of the other guys he would have gotten market value. One of these Cuban guys is not going to pan out, and the reports I have read say Thomas is far less polished than the other guys who have come over.

    For all I know, he could be a star, but to me this is like buying stock in Apple a month after the newest iphone came out.

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    1. Here are a few numbers from the other Cubans in their first years in MLB:
      Cespedes- age26 – HR-23, 292/356/861
      Abreu- age27 – HR-36, 317/383/964
      Puig – age22 (sh-season), HR-19, 319/391/925

      I’d say take a chance with Tomas.

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      1. Unfortunately those stats mean nothing for Tomas. Lets look at each players final year in Cuba

        Cespedes 33 HR .333/.424/.667
        Abreu 13 HR .322/.527/.737
        Puig 17 HR .330//.430/.581

        Tomas 6 HR .290/.346/.450

        Which one of these is not like the others?

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        1. Man I posted this months ago . . Tomas’s numbers were far lower with a higher K rate then any of the other Cubans in their same age seasons 21-23.

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          1. Aron and Eric D……do not realize you guys were so happy and satisfied with the current OFers on the Phillies…my bad.
            Since that is the case why take a chance on Tomas!
            I assume status quo is what you prefer.

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            1. Did I say I am was happy with the current outfield? Did I in any way imply that? Just because I raise real concerns about Tomas does not mean I am happy with the status quo. Its just that the perhaps there are better places to invest that $100 million. Perhaps for less money you could get Jung-Ho Many and/or Kenya Maeda. Are they the answer? I don’t know. But over paying for someone just because he is the name du jour is not how a good front office is run.

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            2. So you would pass on Tomas and go for the others, that may be less expensive.
              That is how Ruben thinks and did think for the past 5 years…pass on the risky expensive and try to go for the sure bet, and pay less.
              Unless of course you could unload prospects for that veteran gem.
              .

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            3. It has nothing to do with the getting less expensive players bit better players. Many is a better player than Toma’s. Toma’s just gets more press. Ultimately, I don’t know if Kang is the right move for the Phillies given his age and the fact that the Phillies are so far away from competing, but he is more used as an example that there are and will be other players out there internationally that are better than this one guy whose name is hot because the three previous guys from his country whose profile Thomas’s is nothing like.

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            4. For example, even with all the hate Revere gets would you rather have BJ Upton leading off? He’s making $15 mil he must be better.

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            6. We agree to disagree.
              I prefer going for the OF righthanded power bat.
              And I am sure Many and Maeda, if they are what they are both advertised, then they could be a great investment.
              What the heck…get all three.

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            7. I don’t know how you can be so sure that Kang is better than Tomas. We don’t have a ton of data on either guy and we’re trying to project them from leagues that are well below the talent level of MLB. It’s not like KBO players have a history of success in the majors. Plus Kang played in one of the smallest parks in the league: it’s only 387 to dead center and 323 down the lines.

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            8. But Tomas is the guy whom the Phillies scouts and execs looked at and liked. They passed on Rusny Castillo, saying Tomas was the guy they wanted, the guy who fit their needs. The Phillies are a high revenue team. This is one of the only ways to use $ to increase the net talent in the organization and to catch up with the teams ahead of us. He may not work. You have to sign multiple guys, even primo guys, to get one that really works for you. We dumped a lot of money last winter on old guys like Burnett, Byrd, and Ruiz, who can’t possibly be part of our future. Certainly not our next contender and probably not even our next truly respectable roster. Nobody seems to be advocating, at least not as I am reading the comments, that Tomas should be our one and only international over-23 signing. We should be signing a guy like this every year. We can afford him in 2015 and after that, $ are absolutely no problem for the Phillies — they will have far more than they can spend wisely. If we don’t sign guys like Tomas to provide forward momentum to the Phillies organization, we will have to really overpay to bribe any FA to come to Philly in 2016 and 2017, just as we overpaid last winter. We are not an attractive organization, due to a dearth of talent at both the major league and minor league level. As with MAG, Tomas can be a step forward.

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            9. I didn’t say that I wasn’t interested but not anywhere close to what he’ll get. All I’ve read says that he’s gonna be a .250/.330/.440 type hitter with a lot of K’s. He’ll have little to no protection in the line up (if you see him as a 3-4-5 hitter, personally I’d say he’s more like a 6 hole. Again he might have a ton of raw power but he doesn’t make enough contact to show it in games and that’s against lesser pitching. If it was 3-4 yrs 25-35m then I’m in but not at over 85m

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  6. they should get tomas.. 1) players in their prime hit FA less frequently than in the past so 2) no need to save hordes of $ to sign these players that are no longer available 3) lots of $ coming off payroll soon 4) doesnt cost the fans any $ to sign him- dont see any downside

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  7. Looking at this team, we see assets in Hamels, a handful of prospects, Crawford, Franco, Nola, Quinn, maybe a few others, and money. I don’t care what he costs, there is no trading of prospects involved. So, if the judgment is that he can come close to the above numbers, you have to take a chance.

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  8. I don’t want Amaro making any more important decisions for this rganization. I am hoping Gillick phases him out of the roster building process this year while allowing him to cash checks and not have the public embarrassment of being fired. They don’t really have too many open spots on the roster to fill, my hope is they just add a couple low risk flyers on a vetran outfielder and a back of the rotation candidate.

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  9. Regarding Tomas, I really don’t see then doing it with jettisoning one of their big contracts first. Considering youveill have to eat so much of Papelban or Howard’s salary, Utley’s no trade, and Lee’s injury, signing Tomas probably means Hamels is getting traded.

    Not sure how I feel about Tomas. I really don’t see him getting 109M though. 5 and $75M is probably the high end

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    3. It looks like the payroll is at about $155M right now, and they basically have their roster set for next year assuming they plan on Jerome Willams or Nola filling one of the rotation slots. So they have enough room to sign Thomas.

      I’d sign him because I just don’t see a better way to spend the money right now. If the plan is to compete in 2017, this seems like the best way to go about it.

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      2. With that 155M number, does that include AJ Burnett and if so at what number as I’m confused what he will be paid if he opts to return as I know there is a mutual option at 15M or a player option at 7.5M that can go up to 12.5M depending on how many starts.

        But what I don’t understand is what option would be used if he returns, the mutual or the player.

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        1. COTs shows 130 million for 2015 INCLUDING Burnett @ 11.25 million.

          It’s pretty clear that they can easily afford Tomas in 2015 without going over the luxury tax threshold, and it only gets easier in future years. Also remember that his contract can be back-loaded if necessary.

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          1. That 130 million total does not include Rollins for some reason (maybe because, since he was on the DL at the end of the season, his option did not technically vest yet – though it certainly will). But that doesn’t change the analysis in any significant way (I assume the 155 million figure includes Rollins and arb estimates and pre-arb players; it still seems a little high, yet even that allows room for Tomas).

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          2. The COTs hasn’t been updated. The Burnett number is too low. Burnett had 34 starts in 2014. His player option provides for a 2015 salary of $12.75 million for 32 or more starts in 2014. To that must be added half of the $7.5 million bonus, for salary cap calculations. That mean Burnett’s lux tax cap hit for 2015 is $16.5 million. It is actually a larger hit against Phillies internal budget, since all of the bonus money is payable after this year’s WS, starting in December and ending in June.

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            1. You’re mostly wrong about Burnett. the 7.5 million all goes to 2014. The 2015 number is a little higher, though, as you say.

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            2. Yeah, I was factoring in Burnett’s adjustment as $4M. Rollins, Sizemore, and Revere (assuming $4M) are not shown either, which is another $17M. That brings the total to $151M. I figure the rookie contracts will leave the total at roughly $155M.

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            3. Your luxury tax number for Burnett in ’15 is tentatively correct, but your calculation method is off.

              A player option year is treated as a guaranteed year for luxury tax purposes. So. the deal Burnett signed is a two-year. $22.5 million deal for luxury-tax purposes, with an AAV of $11.25 million for ’14 and ’15.

              Based on his 2014 performance, Burnett will receive an additional $5.25 million in bonuses in 2015, thus raising the luxury tax hit in ’15 to $16.5 million, as you state. I believe, however, that Burnett can earn another $1.75 million in bonuses based on his 2015 performance. So, the luxury tax amount can be as high as $18.25 million.

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      3. That’s another poor argument (signing Tomas because you don’t see a better way of spending the money). If that’s the sentiment, much better to save the money for a future acquisition.

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  10. I don’t understand the comments about jettisoning contracts. The Phillies aren’t worried about lowering their payroll, they’re just trying to get younger with prospects replacing veterans. They’ll be paying most of Howard’s salary for 2 years regardless of where he plays and I hope Burnett comes back and pitches because he’ll bring some experience and possibly be a trade chip at the deadline if he pitches well. Adding Tomas is a no brainer if they can although there will be lots of competition from other clubs (Tigers and Rangers). My guess is, if we’re lucky enough to get him, that he’ll play LF from the start and we’ll see how he does, unless he really struggles in spring training. Utley, Rollins, Howard, Chooch, Papelbon, Lee and Burnett will all be gone in 2 years replaced by cheaper options most likely. Our payroll will be MUCH lower in 2 years (and maybe sooner if some trades happen) so paying for Tomas should not be an issue long term.
    Adding talent is the goal. If this kid can play, we need to sign him. Hopefully, the new guy just added as scouting director, with the international scouting background, has weighed in and likes the guy also. And trade Hamels, age 30, if the return is good and we can add enough young talent. Russell and Crawford would look good together at CBP in 2 years….

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        1. The point is they don’t need to go over, or to shed salary, if they sign Tomas. It’s not an issue unless they sign one of the big name free agents out there, or trade for a high salary player (and even then maybe not), which they won’t and shouldn’t do. They have all of the payroll flexibility that they need given their current circumstances.

          Which is also why your obsession with cutting payroll is misguided.

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          1. Not really, it makes no logical sense to continually push salary up against the max when you are a 90 loss team at the bottom of the division.

            You have no flexibility in terms of adding guys during the season if names pop up.

            It is like filling out your lineup card for July games in January. A lot can happen between now and then and you want to give yourself flexibility in the event something happens.

            Not sure how one makes the argument that having a top 5 payroll with a 90 loss team makes any sense.

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            1. Surely you understand that the 6 aged stars Howard, Paps, Chooch, Rollins, Utley and Lee are the reason it is a top 5 payroll with the possibility of being a 90 loss team again.
              Nothing you can do about that….but wait them out…unless, of course, you can trade a few of them, which would lower the payroll.

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            2. That is why you start dealing guys like Hamels, Byrd and Paps.

              You test the waters on players like Utley, Chooch, and Rollins. I am not saying you trade them but you float it out there and see what return they bring. It happens every winter as GM’s assess the value of their prospects.

              They could carve $30-40 million off the payroll this offseason and not see a major difference in the record for next season.

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          2. That’s true today, Romus, but we didn’t need to sign Ruiz and Byrd for three years last winter.

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            1. Yes…probably could have signed both Chooch abd byrd for one year less then their present contract.
              But having former players as GMs, and who cannot learn from past mistakes, can be a detriment to the business side of the game, since they seem to be more sympathetic to the player, except certain ones who learned early on, like Billy Beane.
              Reminds of the scene from Money Ball when brad Pitt as Billy Beane asked Jonah how do you cut a player when he has children in grade school, just bought a house and other problems.

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  11. I would not pay someone 100 million that might or might not be worth it. I would offer 3 years 15 million and if he is that good he can cash in in 3 years.

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    1. Yeah, it’s a riskier profile than you would like for the money involved. Given the questionable hit tool and the lack of some other important tools, I probably don’t sign him at that money unless I think he’s got a legtimate chance to be a middle of the order hitter for a championship team. Otherwise, although it’s hard to do so at this moment, I’d pass. As Larry suggested, ultimately, this is a scouting exercise.

      Too bad they didn’t just keep Hunter Pence – he’s basically better than the projection and costs less money. Oh well.

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      1. Hindsight is 20/20, but it doesn’t bring back the reserve clause!

        Would Pence have resigned with the Phillies after the 2013 season or signed an extension beforehand instead of testing free agency? Color me very skeptical. He would have been gone to a contender and what the team would have been left with is a compensatory draft pick which probably wouldn’t have netted something better than Tommy Joseph alone, let alone the full package they got, including Joseph and Schierholtz.

        Now you’ll never be able to explain to me why they didn’t keep Schierholtz around to play RF in 2013 instead of Delmon $%$#$#% Young. A Schierholtz/Mayberry platoon in right that year would have been a very nice placeholder.

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        2. That’s true, but they probably could have signed Pence during 2012 before all the wheels came off the cart. It’s all water under the bridge at this point.

          That said, Tomas is intriguing, but if they sign him, he at least needs to be above average (3 or more WAR) to justify the big dollars. I think if the Phillies decide they want him, some team is going to have to go way overboard to outbid the Phillies.

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    2. Puig’s analysis…circa 2012.

      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cuban-of-yasiel-puig-declared-free-agent/

      “The vast majority of the attention amongst Cuban outfielders centered around Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler, and it should have. Puig possesses raw power — and actually showed game-power back in the 2010-2011 season with 17 home runs — but Ben Badler of Baseball America recently noted that the most recent scouting reports on the young outfielder have been extremely underwhelming”

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    3. Ok, well there’s the skeptical take on Tomas that I just said I hadn’t seen! I stand corrected. He does sound scary. This sentence also jumped out at me:

      “Some recent Cuban defectors, like recently signed Red Sox CF Rusney Castillo, have completely changed their body between defecting from Cuba and being declared a free agent.”

      What is “changed their body” supposed to be implying? I guess we can all imagine what could happen during “training” down in the DR by a prospect who isn’t yet covered by the CBA and its drug testing policy.

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      1. If you examine the recent Cuban invasion, you will see that most if not all the Cuban position players are well over 200 lbs and many in the 225 lb and plus range.
        And with ‘cut’ physiques.
        So you may have a point.

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        2. Um, yeah, I heard the same thing from Lenny Dykstra in 1993. “Lots of vitamins!”

          The unfortunate thing about the steroid scandals is that basically any power hitter is immediately under suspicion and it’s impossible to prove a negative. That said, if you look at Puig physique … it’s like back to the 1990s. Popeye.

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    4. LG Jr couldn’t perform in single A.

      BA Quote:
      “Tomas hit .289/.364/.538 with 15 home runs, 34 walks (10 intentional) and 52 strikeouts in 324 plate appearances over 81 games”

      Tomas accomplished that at a very young age in a very competitive Cuban league. He is not LG Jr.

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  13. I have a question which could be a future post, Which minor leaguers need to be put on the 40 man roster or be potentially lost? I know Rosenberg was sent to AAA and created a roster spot and I would expect the same for Aumont along with free agent spots being made available.

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  14. Justin Smoak released, and claimed by Toronto. Wasn’t he the centerpiece of the Lee to Texas deal? Another cautionary tale when we talk about trading Hamels.

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    1. For every cautionary tale you find of specs not working out, you can point out the exact reverse scenario of a team giving up key specs that turn into something for a guy who blows his elbow out or completely sucks.

      Freddy Garcia anyone?

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  16. I’ll weigh in on Tomas and say $100 Mil is too much. I’d be out at that price. I’d go 6/$72 and give him an opt out after 3 years.

    Otherwise I up the budget to spend on the LA markets.

    I’m philosophically opposed to begin with on the whole free agent thing for international players.

    It irks me to no end that our own home grown players don’t have this option to sign with whomever they want for whatever they want yet we would allow this guy or any other that type of money. Cheese and crackers Harper didn’t even get that kind of money with the hype machine he had at his back.

    Am I just getting old and cranky?

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    1. Tomas already has an offer of $90M on the table from what some scribes had written last week.
      So 6/$72M will probably not get him to sign.

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  17. Trading Hamels is a huge risk for this organization. We have seen what can go wrong when you trade a frontline starting pitcher for prospects (The Cliff Lee disatser). The Pence and Victorino trades also look quite bad. However, you could argue if Joseph and Martin hand’t gotten hurt those trades may not look as bad.

    We could keep him and try to rebuild the team around him and hope to compete in 2016 or 2017. If we keep him we will continue to see him battle and get no run support. It will be another 2-3 years before we compete. If we trade him now our draft pick for the 2016 draft will probably improve and be another top 10 pick, if we trade Byrd as well we could get a top 5 pick. If we trade Hamels we could always sign Price, Zimmerman or Latos after next season. They are are least a few years younger than Hamels and most likely won’t cost a draft pick. The money we would save on Hamels could easily be distributed to fill other holes. McCarthy or Liriano are both guys that could be a part of next years rotation. We could put that money towards Tomas or a pitcher from over seas (I believe a couple Japanese pitchers and possibly a Korean will soon be available, I think there is a 2B as well). Trading Hamels provides us with some prospects that will hopefully become successful big league players and financial flexibility to make some moves.

    I know there have been mixed opinions on what we can get for Hamels. I saw this article that discussed Hamels going to texas along with Dom Brown and 10mil. The return included 3 players in the Ranger’s top 10 prospect list and a fourth name I was not familiar with. I thought it was interesting to see an outside perspective on Hamels trade value.

    http://www.lonestarball.com/2014/10/28/7080919/cole-hamels-texas-rangers-potential-offseason-acquisition

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    1. I’m confused as to the point you’re trying to make? Sounds like you’re playing both sides. What is your stance? I see no scenario where it makes sense keeping him, especially given what Gillick has recently said. It’s good to know that someone potentially has a brain in the organization. Hamels has to go. Kepping him makes ZERO sense. Sorry folks, but that’s reality.

      Chris

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      1. My stance is we should trade him. I was just acknowledging that there is a risk involved in trading him or keeping him. It definitely makes the most sense to trade him.

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      2. It makes sense keeping him if that Ranger’s deal are the type of offers we get. It’s dumb to speak in absolutes without knowing what offers we receive. Would you be happy with the package we got back for Schilling or Cliff Lee? And if the team is targeting 2017, there’s a very good chance Hamels is still a great pitcher then.

        Like

    2. Interesting, but Adam Morris in his Cole to the Rangers article , and the future Ranger lineup, omits Jurickson Profar…maybe an oversight.

      Like

  18. Luis Sardinas the fourth player mentioned in the article is a SS with these scouting grades:

    Hitting: 55 Power: 30 Run: 70 Arm: 65 Fielding: 65 Overall: 55

    He is 21 and in his first 43 games in the big leagues holds a .261/.303/.313 slash line. If he was included in a potential deal it looks JPC would have a nice double play partner to work with.

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    1. Well that is just great!
      I already had plans for my 2019 Fans All-Star Balloting ready to punch in Jesmuel Valentin and JP Crawford as the doubleiplay combination on the ballot
      Now I am wiil have to take off Jesmuel.. 🙂

      Like

  19. I’m not going for quantity I’m going for quality so just give me Gallo and Thompson and we’ll be done with it. We’ll even throw in Asche if they feel like they need a cost controlled young 3B of the future behind Beltre.

    Like

    1. Interesting perspective. I wouldn’t want to include Asche in that deal. We would be giving up two established major leaguers for a super star prospect and a second good prospect. I also don’t see Texas trading Gallo. If Hamels was younger and cost controlled then I would expect Gallo in the deal for sure. Not many teams will give up their best prospect(#6 in top 100) for a guy who they still have to pay over 20 mil a year for.

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      1. Not giving up Brown in that deal replacing Brown if needed with Asche is all. And you are probably right they don’t do that deal just saying I would do it from the Phillies side.

        For Hamels if you get as close to a sure front line starter as you can and you get a perennial MVP middle of the order bat I’m content to trade him.

        The trick is deciphering which team has those 2 players.

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        1. Purely conjecture…..but if the Sox cannot sign Sandoval for third base, since they are wanting a lefty hitting third baseman, and if they are still interested in Hamels, include Asche in the transaction, and try to get Betts, Owens and Bogaerts in return.

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          1. It also doesn’t make sense to me that the Red Sox need Hamels. Owens is pretty much ready and at a great $. Couple him with Ranaudo and Brian Johnson and they have the makings of a solid cost controlled rotation for years to come.

            And we haven’t even talked about Swihart and Checchini. My point is I don’t think they trade Lester if they don’t believe internally that they are ok at pitching.

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            1. Sure it doesn’t make sense for the Sox to want Hamels…..but all the reports from Boston indicate that Cherington evidently does want him…and they still could be in play to re-sign Lester.
              So go figure,

              Like

        2. Why would any team give up that package for Cole Hamels when they can sign Jon Lester for an extra year or two who is almost the exact same pitcher?

          If you get one of those things you’d make the move. It makes 0 sense to hold onto him if this team is going to finish in last in 2016 and 2017 and it’s frankly unfair to him.

          Like

          1. Because it’s not just ONE extra year for Lester…you think he’s only getting a 5 year deal? He is probably approaching 7 and $200mil

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  20. It is not about what you are paying Hamels but what you are getting in return.

    Hamels is a left handed ace. He is fairly paid for his services.

    To think a team would shy away from doing a trade because of money is silly. If you want a starter you are paying starter money and the guys available in free agency will get Hamels money.

    Like

    1. At $22.5M Hamels is a little cheaper then what could be the price for a Lester or Scherzer on the open market.

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      1. What makes Hamels so attractive, is not so much the annual amount of the contract, although that’s now fairly market competitive too, but the limited (but not too limted) number of years left on the contract. Because it’s only 4 years, and because he is now at the peak of his abilities, it’s an extremely attractive deal and will continue to be attractive throughout the year if Hamels remains healthy. In fact, if he pitches fairly well, Hamels may be at his peak value in July and, for that reason, if I’m the Phillies, unless I get bowled over by an offer this offseason, I’m keeping my powder dry with Hamels for a while and I’ll let the competition bid against each other when they get desperate in the middle of the year.

        Like

  21. Hamels trumps just about all the FA’s that are out there when all factors are weighed in. Cole’s mechanics are near flawless and the fact that he has perfected the change up the way he has says to me he will be effective well into his mid 30’s.

    The most obvious comparable if you are a team in need of a #1 starter this off season will be Lester. And by all accounts he is all that Hamels is with this one exception. He has no compensation attached to him and the deal is going to start at 6/$150 and it probably climbs past that.

    Next you are in a bidding war with a handful of other teams so you can’t even be sure you are going to win.

    So while this is all hyperbole its also about finding the hidden leverage. The music is going to stop and there is likely to be a team without a seat at the table. One can only hope its not a team in Cole’s NT list and they have the need and a prospect rich system to deal for him.

    I hadn’t thought about the Rangers but it makes sense to me. If one team could endure giving up two bonafide future stars it would be them.

    Like

    1. Some of the ideas are intriguing, but you don’t trade Carlos Ruiz just for salary relief for several reasons. First, he doesnt’ have a big contract. Second, he’s worth a lot more than the contract (why just give some team that excess value?). Third, Cameron Rupp almost certainly isn’t the catcher of the future and I don’t even know if he’s the back-up catcher of the future – so right now, I don’t think Carlos is blocking anybody we highly value. Fourth, Carlos helps develop pitchers. Fifth, I think Carlos can help develop future catchers. Sixth, if the Phillies catch lightening in a bottle in 2016, I want Carlos Ruiz to be around in some capacity and probably as the starting catcher.

      Now, if someone offers them a ton of value for Carlos, they’d have to think about it, but he’s not a salary you just dumping for the sake of dumping.

      Like

      1. Ruiz will be 36 in January and has a reasonable contract which are two reasons to float his name in trade talks.

        I like him but as a rebuilding team I have to see what I can get for him. By the time the team is ready to contend he will be too old and likely off the team.

        Best case scenario when the team is ready to contend in 3 years he will be 39.

        I like him but I am not attached to him.

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      2. You won’t get a ton of value for Ruiz and it is important to trade him for ‘some value’ in addition to salary relief. He was worth his salary in 2014, yet we won only 73 games. He showed a fairly large fall-off from his 2013 performance. Expect more fall-off over the next two seasons. He may well be worth his contract in 2015, but that is highly unlikely to be true in 2016, which is why to get some talent of value back for him, some $ will have to be sent with him.

        It is time to move the old talent, more to salvage what value we can for them, than to get salary relief, but signing Maeda and Tomas would be a good use of the $. This column is actually about as optimistic as one can get about the Phillies future. Contend in 2017? Can anyone seriously predict a more positive future than that?

        Two 73-win seasons say it’s time to pull the string on unloading the old talent. They aren’t going to win with them and they will quickly decay to zero value if we hold onto them.

        Yes, Rupp might be quite rough as a starting catcher. Joseph might be a better choice. I say sign and audition a lot of AAAA guys to compete with them in ST. The old core were given three excellent chances to win another WC in 2009, 2010, and 2011. In 2013 the wheels totally came off the cart. Too much management nostalgia in believing they owed the old core and fans one more shot at the impossible.

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      3. I really don’t see Ruiz as a developer of future catchers. The Phillies haven’t even paired him with a young catcher. He’s had ST with Rupp and Joseph and Valle and they’ve all been moving backwards. Just give up on the notion of the Phillies catching lightning in a bottle in 2016. That is wishful thinking advanced to self-delusion. As others have commented, in 2014, apart from Hamels and Giles, the best seasons were had by the oldsters and it’s all downhill for them from here. You just can’t turn an old team around that quickly and Ruiz is likely to have very little left in 2016. Same for Utley, Rollins, and Byrd. Really, I think an effective, power-hitting Howard was a far more vital piece of the Phillies lineup than we even realized at the time. When he went down, it was over. When Halladay also went down, it was really over. It’s been all charade since mid-2013.

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  23. As for Hamels trade value, it will all be in how Gillick works the other teams. Right now, independent of all else, Hamels is highly desirable to many teams. As the FA pitchers come off the board, his remaining years and salary will look even better. The fact that a few teams desperate to add a stud pitcher will swing and miss on the FA market, will make them even more desperate. If the Phils time this right, and are willing to throw some money in the deal, the return could be huge. Whether their brain trust can identify the right prospects is a whole other issue.

    Like

  24. The Phillies do not need to throw any money into the Hamels deal.

    If a team misses at an ace at $22 million and they want $5 million in a potential Hamels deal they are not serious about signing an ace pitcher.

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    1. Yes they do. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn’t have an understanding of how the game works. A good example: The Blue Jays kicked in a good amount of money to facilitate the Roy Halladay trade and Roy was already on a below market one year deal.

      No team is going to sell their farm system for a player they could sign on the open market for almost the same annual salary. There is too much of a premium being placed on cost controlled players in the game today. Besides a team like the Phillies should do whatever they can to buy prospects.

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      1. They are not selling their farm system.

        You will get one very good prospect for Hamels who is the centerpiece of the deal.

        Depending on the quality of the top prospect it will determine the rest of the package which will likely be A level guys.

        Teams will be paying just as much or more for pitchers of Hamels quality in free agency.

        Teams like Boston and the Cubs will have no problem spending that much money on Hamels. The Cubs already claimed him when he passed through waivers so we know they are serious in acquiring him.

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  25. Let me put the Cubs in perspective for everyone.

    They claimed Hamels off of waivers so we know they are seriously interested.

    Here is the Cubs payroll for next season.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tt7HjIernphaSrv4wMWdUYg&output=html

    Right now they sit at $31 million dollars and you want to pay them to take Hamels. Ok, that makes a ton of sense.

    They can add Hamels and Lester and not even blink an eye.

    Here are the Red Sox who sit at $106 million for next year.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

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  26. Hunter Pence gets his second ring.
    Giants win three in five years.
    And only 22% of away teams win WS 7th games on the road.
    Ohhh.
    This is certainly a day of thoughtful reflection.

    Like

  27. Gotta respect the Giants it is so impressive they just keep finding guys that step up. Who would think with Lincecum, Cain and Posey being non-factors in the playoffs the Giants would still win the world series. Don’t know what the Phillies can take from what the Giants have done and apply it to their rebuild, it seems like when the Giants have picked high in the first round they have really hit. Posey (5th overall), Lincecum (10th overall) and Bumgarner (10th overall).

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    1. The takeaway for the Phillies should be that even if you have a flawed team, once you get in the playoffs everything else is up for grabs.

      Like

    2. The takeaway for the Phillies is that the universe is random and unfair, the just do not always triumph and the mediocre are often rewarded, inexplicably, and ultimately there is no meaning to any of this, we’re just hairless apes sitting in a rock floating through space and waiting for our inevitable date with oblivion.

      Enjoy the hot stove season, everybody!

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  28. It was not Pence’s fault we overpaid to get him, nor was it his fault that we traded him for 10 cents on the dollar. I am happy for him. I think the Phils have to look at the Cubs now. They have legitimate hitting prospects, a terrific manager, and a ton of $. They can sign Lester and trade for Hamels, and I think they are ready to go for it. I don’t think Maddon signed for 3 years from now. What can we realistically get for Hamels? They have Bryant who is untouchable, then Soler, Russell, Baez. Can we get 2? Sign a Liriano and Tomas?

    Like

    1. Cubs have also been rumored to be interested in some of the Mets young pitching and the Mets need a SS. Castro or Russell may go to the Mets for one of their better pitching prospects.

      IMO if the Cubs are going to trade for Hamels they will probably pull from their OF prospect depth. It would be smart for the cubs to keep Soler, but he is a guy the Phillies would probably want since he is MLB ready. However, if the Cubs want to compete next year I think they will need Soler in RF. The Cubs could try to make Almora the center piece of a deal….not sure how I feel about that.

      How fair does an Almora, McKinney, and Jen-Ho Seng trade for Hamels look?

      Those three guys are all 20 years old so they could arrive around 2016 or so when we are supposed to be moving towards competing again.

      What about a Russell or Soler, Cartini, and Blackburn trade for Hamels?

      If the Cubs sign a frontline starter and add Hamels via trade, they will have them as the #1 and 2 followed by Hendricks, Arrieta, and then either Wood, Wada, Doubrant, Jokisch, or Turner. That does not leave a lot of room for C.J. Edwards.
      His name could be thrown around in trade talks as well (He makes me nervous though bc he is ridiculously skinny).

      Anon to answer your last question, I’d sign Tomas, Liriano, and even try for McCarthy. Liriano, McCarthy, Lee, Burnett, Buchanan could be a possible rotation to start if Burnett comes back. If not throw Williams in there. Having three pretty good pitchers in Liriano, McCarthy, and Lee (if healthy) gives us more options at the trade deadline. Liriano and McCarthy should only end up with 2-3 year deals so they shouldn’t break the bank.

      Like

  29. I love that the Giants won. I love that Sabean has been with them for 17 years and that they rode some pretty rough storms out there transitioning from the Bonds/Kemp Dusty Baker era to the Bochy era.

    I love that they do it from a scouting background and not a nerd math background. I love that they trust in solid baseball people and not fantasy nerds. I love that they are not bottom feeders like the Royals they actually pay their players what they are worth when the time comes. For Giants fans it must be fan-effing-tastic.

    I love that Bochy shoves it up Bill Jame’s arse every time he is asked about it. Its simply stellar. I wish we had their people here.

    Like

    1. In fairness there have certainly been analytically minded teams (Red Sox, St. Louis, Oakland) that have achieved high levels of success in recent years. There would seem to be room for both analytics and old school scouting in a successful organization.

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      1. LOL my point Handzus is that Sabean’s critics for years accused him of the poo poo on analytics because he wasn’t front and center with an acknowledgement of their use or importance.

        The SABR crowd is akin to a cult or some form of fanaticism. Whats sad is that for fear of persecution guys like Sabean won’t say publicly what they really believe. And what he objects to is the intrusion of individuals with 0 scouting background and 0 experience in the human element of coming up through the minors telling him how he should construct his teams.

        Long before Amaro was taking shots for his style there was Brian.

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        1. Jeremy Shelley….is the Giants analytical guy….intern in ’94 with the team and moved up. Adheres to the analytical side of baseball but mixes the traditional with the metric very well.

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            1. Thanks for sharing this Romus. It will be interesting to see what actually gets accomplished this offseason. They have thrown around the retooling and rebuilding terms a lot but there have not been many changes. I hope they really make efforts to move Howard, Bastardo, Byrd and some other guys. I wonder if the As would still have interest in Chase Utley. He could DH some to help him stay fresh and still play second base for them. He wouldn’t bring back an enormous return but I think we could get back enough that would make a trade worth it. Rollins is in the same boat. He still has value and could bring back a nice return. I don’t think its vital to move either guy, but it would give Galvis a chance to play everyday. Galvis is probably not an everyday player, but why not give him a chance. This season is a rebuild year so throw him out there and see what he does. He may surprise some people and generate some trade value, even if its just as a back up infielder for a contending team.

              If Ruben can unload Howard on someone, make a couple interesting low risk signings, sign Tomas, and trade a couple of veterans I’d be very happy with the offseason. Easier said then done for sure, but he has to make some moves. We can’t just sign Tomas and not move any veterans.

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        3. There’s room for both scouting and analytics. The best teams are good at both but some guys are going to specialize in one area or the other and that’s fine, since they are a team after all. There are successful people in baseball who came from an analytics background and not a scouting one.

          Most of the “persecution” seems to come from the side with an aversion to stats and people who use terms like “nerd math”. You may have said it jokingly but there are people out there who really feel that way. Although there’s getting to be less and less of them, it seems.

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          1. Good lord, can we just move on from this tiresome argument? I mean, really. One team wins and the other side says, “NERDS SUCK!” Another team (like, I dunno, the Red Sox last year) wins and the other side yells, ‘IGNORANCE IS PUNISHED!” There are obviously a lot of models that work, the truly good players are going to look good both to scouts and to SABR people, and there’s not much either model can do to control a random bounce of a ball or a bunch of seeing-eye singles or the stupidity of a player trying to dive into first base. The fact that the Giants won the last game of the season vindicates nothing and disproves nothing. I’m tired of all this endless vituperation about the best way to break an egg. The egg just broke the Giants’ way. It’s meaningless. Great for them.

            Like

            2. The egg broke the Giants way, that is true, but because they are a well-run organization, they were in a position to win. Phils won in 2008 and a number of breaks went there way. They had a terrific team, we thought, in 2011 and lost 1-0 in game 5. But, had RAJ seen Polanco had been injured in May and kept getting worse, and had obtained a replacement, rather, or in addition to Pence, the Phils would have another WS. Had they not stupidly traded Lee for nothing, just kept him, they could have won in 2010. Neither scenario supports analytics or scouting, but both sides would agree that the Phils screwed up, or they would have been in a position to get the lucky breaks that the giants got.

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          2. The head scratcher here is that DMAR isn’t really one of the people with an aversion to stats. He has created (or, more accurate, bought into) a straw man version of the advanced stat movement and he seems to delight in pounding away at it.

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    3. Question….purely speculation, but would Cole Hamels have done what Madison Bumgarner did on less then a full rest period?
      Seems that was an issue in 2009 vs the Yankees…maybe I am wrong.

      Like

      1. Better question: would we have needed him to? Our bullpen is full of shut down relievers now. And it seemed purely reactionary to pull Hudson that fast.

        Could we have gotten 5 innings out of the combination of Diekman, De Fratus Giles, and Papelbon? Absolutely.

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  31. His name is Gerry Hunsiker, and is a guy who is from Philadelphia, worked for the Phils and applied for and was interviewed for the GM job in 2006. He is a solid baseball guy.

    Like

  32. I have to say I’m glad the Series is over, as is the season. It feels like salt on an open wound waiting for Hot Stove season which is finally here. I’m happy for Pence who was nothing less than a great guy when he played here. That one’s still a tough one to swallow (although I’m sure Tommy Joseph will be stepping up in no time…). Oh well, its Hot Stove season now. Let’s hear AJ say he’s coming back (who would pass up all that money? seriously!), let’s hear about a Tomas signing (with the Phillies hopefully) and then let’s get into some serious trade talk. I know RAJ has said the Phils would be active this winter but what if no one wants to deal with him?
    I’m sorry, I like Hamels, and I love watching him pitch every 5th day, and I’ll never forget how he won us a world series (neither Halladay nor Lee could do that for us), but the time to trade him is now. He just had his best year and is 30 yrs old. We need the Cubs to want Lester AND Hamels to try and win now with Maddon aboard while the Red Sox want him too after losing out on Lester and watching Scherzer sign with the Yankees. We need the two teams for a bidding war to get a fair price for Hamels. Will it happen? That’s what the Hot Stove season is all about….

    Like

    1. Murray…ever the optimist, have to like that.
      As for ‘what if no one wants to deal with him?’.
      That was the talk only in July 2014 concerning Ruben.
      Prior to that he was dealing and wheeling, of course giving up the pharm, with anyone who would listen
      Perhaps in July he wanted more then the exchange value for his veterans he was dangling out there, and perhaps he didn’t want to get burned anymore and therefore shoot for the moon in return for the Byrds and Burnetts.
      When it comes to Hamels, he should have no problem getting suitors in an exchange of assets.

      Like

      1. When he says the priorities have changed from July, does that mean his demand for an Aaron Judge is replaced by a couple of A Ball prospects? That is the only thing I can think of.

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        1. It likely means a) apart from Howard, he was unwilling to trade anyone from the old core; b) he wasn’t allowed/willing to send enough $ in a trade to make some of his awful contracts tradable; and c) he still planned to follow the ‘pretend to contend with recognizable names games’ in 2015 and really wasn’t anxious to part with any of his old vets not named Howard.

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  33. You are exactly right. I am hopeful, again, that there can be some movement towards the future. Something to be excited about, while fully aware that Rube may disappoint me again. But if the Red Sox and Cubs and, maybe, Dodgers and who knows who else, want Hamels. we may get something worthwhile despite RAJ.

    Like

    1. I think Gillick said it best and it rubbed off with Ruben…we have to get younger.
      In July they wanted to trade the Hernandezs, (they accomplished that) Burnetts, Byrds…but hesitated on Rollins, Utley, Howard and Ruiz.
      Now they are all in play..
      I think that is part of the shift.
      What he also says about Ruf, Franco, Asche, Brown and Revere….they want to build around them…well that makes me wonder. revere is a stop-gap until Quinn I hope. Franco is the bright light on the horizon. Asche is hopeful. Ruf is average. And Brown, fingers-crossed for a resurgence.

      Like

  34. Romus you believe that moron amaro. When he said we wants to build around a 29 yr old ruf, a bad centerfielder and bad leadoff hitter, and brown another guy who cant hit. That isn’t what I would like to hear from him. Come on. I really hope to god I am wrong but if amaro is leading the rebuild we are in deep trouble. You want to rebuild you better sign your top draft choices, and spend all the money you can in Latin market,

    Like

    1. rocco….in his words…….”More than anything else, we’re trying to get younger first and foremost, That’s the main priority. We’re trying to have a shift, a process where – whether you want to call it rebuilding, or redevelopment, or whatever you want to call it – it’s time for us to change gears and look for younger, more controllable players we think can help build us a new core and move it forward.” Amaro identified Cody Asche, Maikel Franco, Darin Ruf, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown as players to build around. He wants to foster a better developmental environment at the major-league level. “Those are all younger players who need to be surrounded by quality people and players who can help us develop them as players and people,”

      ……….I guess Rollins, Utley, and Chooch were not the quality to surround them with.
      Can understand Howard.

      Then again, spending in the Latin or international markets (except for the Cubans, Japanese or Koreans) is a long-term investment that takes 4/5 years to see fruition.
      The Tocci signing is the lead investment in that pipeline at the moment.

      Like

      1. By the time the Phillies are ready to compete Utley, Rollins, Byrd, and Chooch will be too old to make a difference.

        Best case, add 3 years to their ages and see where they are.

        This season the Phillies were injury free and logged 89 losses. This season was their best case.

        Like

        1. This is a bit scary but actually fairly accurate. This was, to my mind, certainly the worst Phillies team since the late 90s.

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      1. The most important thing for a leadoff hitter is the ability to get on base, preferably at a pace around or greater than 35%. Last year and for his career Revere is at about 32.5%.

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        1. However, when push comes to shove…..the leadoff hitter only bats 162 times a year, if he leads off and plays every game. And normally the number one hitter sees about 625 PAs a season playing a full 162 game schedule. So approx. 26% of his PAs are as a true lead-off hitter. After the first inning , as you know, things change in the batting sequence thru the game.
          So I guess what you are saying, a good lead-off hitter should be on base a minimum of 57 of the 162 games he plays in his first at bat?

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  36. The important distinction is not between numbers guys and scouting guys; it’s between smart guys and not-so-smart guys.

    IMO, Gillick is the only smart guy among the Phils’ FO veterans. He may be old school, but my guess is that he’s smart enough to recognize the value of good stats.

    Like

    1. Hasn’t Gillick basically been RAJ’s boss for his entire tenure though? I think it’s fairly safe to assume Gillick and Amaro agreed on most of the major decisions or one of them wouldn’t be in the org right now.

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        1. Don’t think that David Montgomery asked Pat Gillick for his opinion on major moves? If not you are fooling yourself.

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          1. That wasn’t the question. The question was whether Gillick has been Amaro’s boss since 2009 and he hasn’t been. I agree that Gillick has been consulted, and he has been in his role as an advisor and I think he has influenced a bunch of decisions, including some more recent decisions, but I don’t think that he’s been acting as Amaro’s de facto boss. If he had been, a lot of transactions Amaro completed would, in my opinion, not have gone through as Gillick was on record during the 2009-2011 time period as indicating that Ruben was not as much of a “bargain shopper” as Gillick was and that when Ruben wanted something he was willing to pay a very heavy price. I’ll try to find the references on the internet, but Gillick was very open about that at the time and the transactions still went through even though, obviously, it was not Pat’s style or something that he, personally, would have done.

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      2. I believe that Gillick has lived on the other side of the country since he stepped down as GM. He then became a consultant to the Phils at sharply reduced compensation while in semi-retirement.

        True, he’s just been a phone call away, but, since 2009, Gillick should be thought of as the Phils eminence grise, giving input when asked, but not part of the decision-making team.

        The idea that the Phillies’ transactions over the last few years have been the result of group decisions is just another way to deflect criticism away from Montgomery and Amaro.

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      3. No he has not been Amaro’s boss. Monty has been Amaro’s boss. Gillick was just an advisor after stepping down as GM. He likely didn’t spend much time in the office.

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    1. Is it at all realistic to make a deal with Burnett, where he gets $3Mill to opt out, knowing he could recoup another 8 and pitch for a better team? Or, is that wishful thinking?

      Like

  39. Another awesome game by Roman Quinn. One hit – a triple. Two walks. Two stolen bases. Now, that’s a player you can dream on.

    Like

    2. Ruben, or whomever is the GM in 2016, will have to make a decision on Revere, with Quinn knocking on the door.

      Like

      1. He, at least, gives us another player to hope on. How has he played on D? I still think the biggest disappointment on revere is that he is not that good defensively. I thought we were getting an elite defensive CF, but should have known better.

        Like

        1. Yeah, he wasn’t even playing CF when we traded for him. Yes Span had the job, but it wasn’t a case of trade Span and move Revere to CF. Both were traded. The Phillies gambled and lost on the bet that Revere was a great CF who just happened to be stuck behind Span.

          Like

      2. I would not mind seeing Revere slid over to a corner OF position with Quinn in CF and Tomas in the other corner.

        You could trot out a potential lineup of Quinn/Revere/Franco/Tomas with speed at the top and then some power in the 3 and 4 spots.

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        1. With Crawford arriving at the same time or right behind Quinn I think J.P. is the heir apparent to the #2 hole. I would like some one the profiles more middle of the order bat for left (even if it is back of the middle of the order.)

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          1. Check out Valentin who, to me, seems a near perfect fit at 2b AND at #2 in the lineup. Crawford could eventually end up in the #3 hole.
            Quinn could maybe learn enough in 2 seasons to play a good CF and lead off,.
            Of course, the #1 problem is finding at #4 hitter with none on our horizon.

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            2. Rhys Hoskins could be a candidate for the #4 hole at some point down the road..
              I have him as the break-out player in 2015, similar to Asche in 2012 and Franco in 2013.

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  40. Comment on Baseball Prospectus today has one of their writers scouting Quinn and Ogando. Writer/scout had serious questions about Quinn other than his speed. But, he was quite high on Ogando. Quinn is not that much of a hitter, he states.

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    1. This writer feels he will not be an everyday player due to his limited hit tool.
      At some point he may want to resort to his naural righthanded hitting only.

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      1. BP……….”He’s a quality fielder in the middle of the diamond, and will impact the game with his legs. But with the limited hit tool, it’s difficult to envision him as an every day player”. —Jordan Gorosh

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      3. I’m not willing to say limited hit tool. He’s missed a lot of time and moved up to face stronger pitching, while learning to switch hit. He doesn’t strike out a huge amount and he hit .257 at CLW. That’s not indicative of bad hit tool. He’s one of the few low-A guys in AFL, so yes he’s struggling a tad on the hit. I think that was to be expected. Within a year or so, he and the Phillies will face decision time on the switch-hitting experiment.

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        1. Interestingly, how many players ‘forced’ to switch-hit by the Phillies have been successful?
          Was JRoll a switch-hitter in HS?
          I know Larry Bowa started after HS, at the old D level.
          But guys like Jeltz did not quite cut the mustard.
          Galvis and Hernandez may turn out alright however.
          Seems the big power bats of the past were more successful, ie Mantle, Eddie Murray, Reggie Smith and even someone like a Ted Simmons.

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    3. Yes but his bop is good and I see hr is leading in stolen base whether his hitting tools is great or not he’s on base somehow to steal bases some scouts are just critics

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      1. His analysis of Morgan is also concerning. Hopefully he gains more strength in his full recovery. IMO, come ST we will be pleasantly surprised by his return.

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        1. He said he saw Morgan’s first start. Reports are that Morgan’s velocity is picking up recently and he’s hitting 91 and 92 and there may be more to come. We will probably have a better idea of Morgan’s recovery by like May or June of next year.

          On Quinn, the guy sounds like he knows what he is talking about. I hope that Quinn exceeds his expectations. A 35 power ceiling, 45 hit tool ceiling and fringe average regular player projection is not very encouraging, so I hope he is wrong about that. Honestly, although he has a very different skill set, Revere is a fringe average player right now, so the hope is that Quinn can develop to the point where he is an upgrade from Revere, who, in my view, is more maligned than he should be and who, if he can bring his fielding to the next level, could easily be a solid average player due to his 70 hit tool and his 80 grade base running (note I said base running, not speed, which is 70 grade – Revere was the largest value added player in the majors this year on the basepaths – he’s really pretty amazing when he gets on base).

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  41. Just for the record, Andrew Friedman would be my new Phils GM and Joe Maddon, the new Manager. I know Sandberg was dealt a bad hand, but he showed me zero. And, thanks for the name John Barr that I could not remember. He is my new choice.

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    1. For John Barr the commute to the park would only involve crossing over the Walt Whitman Bridge from Jersey.
      And the GM position would be a promotion since what he is currently doing with the Giants is what that new guy the Phillies just hired a few weeks ago is going to do.
      If he is ever offered the GM position by the Phillies I am sure he will take it.
      But that is a big ‘if’.

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  43. I was listening to espn, the writer for cubs, was on after the firing of the manager. He said cubs wont go big in free agency this year, looks like hamels to them is off the table. they want one more year of developing there players, He thinks 2016 or 17 is when they go into free agents to fill in spots.

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    1. I know you know this, but Hamels isn’t a free-agent. Not sure I agree that the comments from the Cubs writer would apply to him. Not that I think that the Cubs are a major player for him anyway, but if the Phils make it be known that he’ll be moved the Cubs will absolutely be interested

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      1. But right now the Cubs are intending to go after Jon Lester…..would they still want Hamels with Lester also signed?
        I mean that is almost a similar Ruben move from 2009 and the Four Aces.

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  44. Let’s face it. With the exception of a couple of brief periods in their history, the Phillies have been and remain a second-rate organization.

    The problems start and end with management. Gillick is a capable guy, but he is old and he is interim. Gillick has stepped in for Montgomery, but he should remain president until a young and smart baseball man is found. Then, Gillick should ride off into the sunset.

    The Phils need to clean house upstairs. Is Middleton the savior? Maybe, maybe not. We don’t know him. What we do know is that Giles, Montgomery, Amaro, Dallas Green, Benny Looper and all the crap that came with them must go. If Middleton can take control of the team and if he is bright, imaginative and aggressive, the Phils might have a future. Otherwise, not.

    The only thing the Phillies have going for them is some money. They are not, however, by any stretch of the imagination, the Yankees of the NL or even the Yankees of the NL, east of the Mississippi.

    Prospects? The Phillies have a few, but so do most other teams. Can we see the light at the end of the tunnel? No. Is a return to competitiveness in the cards for 2016 or 2017? I don’t see it, but come back when you’re loaded with prospects like the Cubs. Then, we’ll talk.

    And how long must we endure this nostalgia tour with Utley and Rollins? The sentimental journey of three years has already been way too long. Who thinks it’s a good idea to extend it another two years or more? The Phils would be doing both the team and the players a favor by trading them. Now.

    “The Phillies Way” is the way for losers.

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    2. I agree that this all starts and ends with management.

      But if you put the proper GM in place, I think this team has a ton of positives. A great and loyal fan base that is looking for any good reason to fill the park in a highly populated and sports crazed area of the country. A great stadium. A very good TV contract. Aside from the GM, that team has an ownership group that is patient (probably too patient, which is its own vice), truly wants the team to win and is willing to dedicate serious resources toward that success.

      None of this works, however, if you don’t have the right GM in place and if you don’t let that GM do his (or her) job without excessive meddling (see Montgomery and his insistence on keeping the core together). I look at this more like a situation you might have with an old time football team with stable ownership like the Giants, or the Steelers or the Packers – everything is there for the team to succeed for very long periods of time except the prime decision maker(s). Choose that person or team properly and there is absolutely no reason that the Phillies could not turn this thing around and keep it going for a long, long time.

      I’m hoping that Middleton (who is no fool), looks around baseball, sees the new trends and demands that the Phillies make some structural changes and move into the 21st century already. Although he may not completely control things, he is very influential and has a huge amount of say in the direction of the team.

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  45. I cannot argue with you. The problems start at the top. I believe RAJ was forced to trade Lee, and I am not absolving him of the other terrible decisions. But, that trade, and the decision to pay only slot to draft picks before there was a slotting system, was from the top. Giles wanted to be in Selig’s good graces. for what, is a mystery. Failures in Japan, Cuba, also from the top. No question of the “nice guy” label that Giles and Monty have, but that doesn’t make good Baseball decisions. And, if we remember, it was Monty who argued against extending Schilling before Shill demanded a trade. This mindset has been pervasive for a long time, despite the 2007 to 2011 run that we had. It was Middleton who pushed Giles out and stepped up for Lee’s re-signing.

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  46. I like the MLBTR prediction:
    10. Yasmany Tomas – Phillies. Tomas is a unique free agent, in that he defected from Cuba this year and will be just 24 years old. A right-handed hitting corner outfielder with huge power, Tomas comes with a lesser reputation and less certainty than countryman Jose Abreu did a year ago, yet Tomas could still top Rusney Castillo’s $72.5MM record for a Cuban player (set in August). That could mean a seven-year deal worth around $100MM. Tomas makes sense even for rebuilding teams, bringing the Phillies into play. Earlier this month, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez also named the Rangers, Padres, Giants, Mariners, and Dodgers as other teams with strong interest.

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    1. I’ve always liked Michael Taylor.

      If we can pick him up on a AAAA contract, I”m all for it. He has some skills, including pretty decent plate discipline. He might end up being a perfectly acceptable 4th outfielder in the majors, and, if we’re a little lucky, he might turn into more than that.

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      1. Taylor was at one time a decent prospect, but some may view bringing him here now as another Francisco/Mayberry lineage occurring, typically Ruben would make that move and also incur the criticism..

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        1. I love reading the news, The Arizona diamondbacks, might just might be in the mood to move there catcher Montero. Wow 12 million a year for a 237 hitter. Lets go get him. it makes me laugh they should unload him to anyone who would take that contract, But it sounds like they are waiting for big offers to consider it. funny stuff, I really hope the scout is wrong on Quinn. he is someone to root for, and to say he doesn’t have hit tool is really bad. Michael Taylor has he ever hit? and how old is he? why would we need him I thought we were trying to get better and younger? Guess I was wrong again.

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          1. Let’s not blow this out of proportion. He’s a guy to bring in to fill out the ST rosters and play at AAA and perhaps compete for a 25th roster spot with probably a bunch of other guys. Judging from the outfield talent we’ve seen a Lehigh in recent years, there’s really no downside to having him around. If he stinks, he gets released or just stays in AAA as a taxi squad player – no harm, no foul. Nobody’s saying he’s the future of the Phillies.

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            1. I guess that could have been an option….signing Michael Taylor to a minor league contract….until yesterday, when the Phillies signed 30-year old Brian Bogusevic and 29-year old Darin Mastroianni. both with some MLB experience.

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  48. Phillies have declined their option on Burnett . . . And so has Burnett. This saves 12.75m and adds another opening to their rotation.

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  50. Regardless of questions raised, I will continue to hope on Quinn. And, Ogando may be another good BP piece. Looking for a little hope wherever I can.

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