December Q&A Session

Other Stuff

I don’t have time to write up a full mailbag so I thought I would do something in between, opening it up for people to ask questions and get some answers or insight.

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  • Keep on topic to question or comment posed

I will be moderating this thread heavily to keep it clean and easy to follow, so anything off topic should go in the General Discussion thread or another appropriate thread.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

109 thoughts on “December Q&A Session”

  1. With the injury to Quinn, the Phillies farm system probably ranks in the high teens. I was hoping Quinn would take a big step forward this year. Which players are you most looking forward to seeing this year and which ones do you think will take the biggest step forward?

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    1. I am looking forward to Jose Pujols and Cord Sandberg after a full offseason of instruction (hopefully I can get an opportunity to actually see them in person).

      I am going to go with Yoel Mecias. Mecias should be back on the mound towards the middle of the year. It is legitimate stuff and he was starting to get it all together before the injury. It is an average fastball right now, but a lot of projection, the slider is looking at least average, but the changeup could be very special.

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      1. In the same vein, do you have any player who is under the radar who you think can be a breakout performer? Kind of like how Altherr had a breakout (sort of) in 2013. Altherr wasn’t viewed as a top prospect.

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        1. I want to say Deivi Grullon, but I have ranked way ahead of everyone else (he may not make the Top 10 but is going to be close)

          For a guy under the radar I think Mitch Walding is a guy who could come back nicely. It is a whole bunch of tools that haven’t come together yet. The injuries slowed him down in 2013 and he was raw to begin with, but he is healthy and after a month plus in the Dominican at the Phillies academy he is back working out. Unlike fellow 2011 draft bust Larry Greene, you can still look at Walding’s raw tools and see a good baseball player.

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  2. In your opinion, which of the likley starting OF at Reading (Altherr, Collier, Dugan) are you most interested in following and which, if any, improves their prospect status the most in 2014?

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    1. I am most interested in Altherr, he has more upside than the other two and has made little improvements along the way. Now that he has established himself as a CF it is about slowly closing holes in the swing and pitch selection. It is going to be up and down for him, but the process is going to matter.

      As for status I think that Dugan is going to improve it most. I think the walk rate is going to look more like Clearwater and he will be in LHV by July and in Philly in September. He still will look like a borderline major league regular, but that profile at the major league level is a lot more interesting than it is in AA.

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  3. Rupp projects to go back to AAA, Biddle should be there too. Any chance we see the Biddle we saw in April 2013? I’m also assuming he’s 100% healthy. And on Biddle, where do you have his changeup? I’ve read glowing reports on it that say it’s as good as his curveball, and others that say it’s average. I think he should be joined at Lee and Hamel’s hips in Spring Training.

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    1. I think the Biddle we saw in April might be a bit optimistic because hitters are not going to be as susceptible to the curveball. That said I am optimistic the walks get back under control and he looks good to start the season.

      I think the changeup ultimately is a plus pitch, it is going to flash anywhere in between until he really stabilizes his release point and consistent FB velocity. I think it is tick worse than the curveball, but you are hoping it closes the gap and he ends up with 3 60 grade pitches

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      1. Matt, I’m not sure if you’ve ever seen Biddle live when the curveball is “on” but it’s the best curve I’ve ever seen at a professional game (I saw him pitch live 3 times, not one hitter put the curve in play – not ONE!). It rates 60 now due only to command issues. It projects as a 70 and, imho, if he really harnesses it, it could be close to an 80 – yeah, like the best curve in the majors. It’s that good and, if he can command, and pitch in the low to mid 90s with the FB, he will, at worst be a 3, likely be a 2, and may have ace upside (although that’s not likely to happen).

        I’ve been thinking about ways the Phils could contend this year. I think the number one best way for that to happen is for Biddle to just flat take off at LV in April and May and arrive in Philly in late May or early June as a legit 3, giving the rotation a huge boost. Again, it’s not likely, but it’s definitely possible.

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        1. After moving to Wisconsin this year I have not seen Biddle live. That being said, to make the curve go up a grade he is going to need to tighten it up, the long loopy curve is certainly an effective pitch, but hitters are going to time it up at the major league level. For an 80 grade curveball you need the command of it to throw it for strikes move it all around inside and outside of the zone. It is a level of manipulation that never happens at the minor league level and something that will need to be learned in the majors.

          Personally I think the curveball and changeup are fine, the real determining factors for his success is going to be repeating the delivery and arm angle, and maintaining plus fastball velocity. If he can do that then the secondary stuff will play up (he also has a slider that projects as average) and he can fall in as a good mid-rotation starter. If he can’t get the fastball established hitters are going to wait out the secondary stuff and crush it.

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    1. From everything I have heard, the top guys are almost all now off the island. However, given the political situation and the shadiness that is smuggling players out, it could get very volatile very quickly. I don’t know if a TV deal makes the Phillies bigger players, I think a successful Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez would go further in convincing them it is a good place to invest their money.

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  5. Now I know it’s early and the spring season hasn’t even came yet. I know the MLB came out with a mock draft in 2014 and the phillies are predicted to land gate wood or gettys. I know it all depends on the 6 other teams ahead of them. In your opinion who do you believe the phillies should land given the 2 or if you think others will drop to that spot?

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    1. I don’t know enough to differentiate the two, both have hit tool questions, which scares me. I think a pitcher falls or pops up and you see them take a big time RHP. I don’t have anything definite though

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      1. I think at #7, you take a pitcher who has a chance to be a true #1. You just don’t get that many chances to get a guy like that.

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        1. I think you take the best player, period. We’ve been over this countless times on this site but drafting for need in the MLB draft is a recipe for disaster. How do you think the Orioles, who passed on Buster Posey to draft for need (pitcher – Brian Matusz) feel about their decision now? If it’s a really, really close call, perhaps you consider need, but other than that, go with the best player. It’s not like the Phillies are overloaded with talent at any position (except perhaps third base).

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  6. Besides Biddle, Franco, and Crawford (among others), any names to watch for? I’ll be looking to (schedule permitting) attend games for the Crosscutters, Blueclaws, and Reading.

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    1. Exciting guys (some prospects not included

      Reading: Altherr, Dugan
      Lakewood: Tocci, Green, Tromp, Cozens
      Williamsport: Pujols, Hernandez, Grullon, Sandberg

      Lakewood and Williamsport should have Aton of talent

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  7. This off-season there have been stories suggesting Phils mgmt (RAJs bosses) are awake to the fact that Pap, JRoll, and Howard deals are each disasterous or catastrophic, pick your word preference. How much trust for a rebuild remains for a GM with that kind of wreckage?

    PS odds are high that Lee, Hamels, Utley deals will all look like massive over-pays too even if production levels haven’t cratered.

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    1. Lee, Hamels, Utley deals are great given FA prices. As for a rebuild I don’t really trust Amaro, but as The Good Phight’s Joecatz always points out, he hasn’t moved a real asset the past two offseason, and is letting the farm recover

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  8. Have you heard anything regarding the current health of MAG, Kendrick, Pettibone, Papelbon, and minor leaguers Morgan, Mecias, and Watson. I was discouraged that MAG didn’t throw off the mound during FIL.

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    1. Nothing good on MAG, everything indicates Kendrick and Pettibone will be ready to go. Nothing on Morgan. Watson recently had a set back and is in Florida right now rehabbing to see if he will need surgery. Mecias hasn’t thrown yet, but it is still early

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      1. Does that mean that you’ve heard negative stuff on MAG, or that you’ve heard nothing good or bad one way or the other? I’ve heard nothing bad on MAG so far, just a blank slate.

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        1. Nothing really on MAG other than Amaro’s public comments. Personally I took that as bad news, with the organization not confident that he will be a starting member of the rotation on Opening Day.

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  9. Seb Valle, who has been hitting above average in the Mexican League, and in his last few games with Los Moches has been playing RF…do you think the Phillies will eventually transistion Valle to see playing time in the OF in 2014?

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    1. His value is tied to being a good defensive catcher, there really isn’t room in the Reading OF either. It really is all about the bat. If he makes the majors, some OF time could give him some marginal extra value

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  10. The Phillies have the #7 pick in this years draft. Do you think they can get a impact prospect? Who should i be paying attention to? and will they stay the High School route?

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    1. – A year from now their pick will be the #2 prospect in the system behind Crawford (possibly #1)
      – Anyone on the top of a draft list other than Rodon and Hoffman (who I guarantee will both be off the board)
      – Based on who is near the top of the boards I don’t see a college hitter, but everything is fair game right now. I think pitcher but I have nothing to back that up other than current depth and org composition (plus I like impact pitching)

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      1. The only possible hitting prospect at the College level they may go for is Trea Turner. I’ve seen Trea a bunch and like him. It would create a logjam at Short in the system, but that’s a good problem to have. Of course a ton of stuff can change between now and June. Guys get hurt, guys break out, guys have bad seasons. Any takes on who the Phillies draft now may look way off in April. Suffice it to say, it looks like a pretty awesome crop next Spring, so there’s plenty to be excited about, I think Matt’s right about the player being #2 in the system this time next year.

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    2. To follow up, here are the #7 overall picks since 2002 (in order):
      Prince Fielder, Nick Markakis, Homer Bailey, Troy Tulowitzki, Clayton Kershaw, Matt LaPorta, Yonder Alonso, Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Archie Bradley, Max Fried, Trey Ball

      Don’t go college 1B and you should be fine

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  11. Where do the Phillies stand on international signing for 2013? I know we got Luis Encarnacion for $1 million, but are there plans to use the entire bonus pool?

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    2. They signed Encarnacion and they signed Brian Martelo for 250k (prototype RF profile) who was stateside for FIL, also I know of at least one other 100k signing (don’t remember any other details). Also the Blue Jays tried to acquire an international slot from the Phils in Lincoln deal and were told absolutely not. So that indicates they plan on using it, and they have a history of adding guys over winter and spring.

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      1. Thanks for the response. Overall, does it seem like Phillies will be investing more money into international free agents? are we following the trend (which I agree with) in baseball of spending money on player development rather than regular free agency with the age and draft pick concerns of the current system.

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        1. For the most part I think the Phillies are going to spend to their limits. Sal Agostinelli does a great job identifying talent in LA and the Phillies have given him the resources to sign players when he wants them.

          I think they misjudged the signability of the two guys they took last year, in the end you can’t fault either of them for returning to school and to buy them out of that might have denied the Phillies the ability to get a pair of upside HS arms in Viza and Keys.

          It is also important to remember that the Phillies have not done anything in the past year to really look at moving any of their minor league depth in a deal for anything other than a premium player

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          1. “Also the Blue Jays tried to acquire an international slot from the Phils in Lincoln deal and were told absolutely not.” Can someone please explain this to me? International slots can be traded?

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          2. Sorry but I can’t let them off the hook as easily as you do about not signing top 10 picks. With the way the draft is now, top 10 guys have to be signed and scouts have to know what its going to take for every guy they draft.

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          3. Lets hope that MAG turns out to be great…. not only for our on the field performance, but also so ownership is less hesitant in the future to give out larger contracts to international guys.

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    1. This question was for Matt, but I would suspect he’s seeing well commanded breaking pitches for the first time. It’s good he’s seeing this now because it’s a preview of what he will see at AAA – a lot of guys with so-so fastballs that can’t compete in the majors, but who can carve alive hitters who can’t handle good breaking pitches (hello Cody Overbeck!). What’s encouraging, if you watch Franco’s progression this winter, is that he slowly seems to be adjusting. His walks have picked up significantly in the last few weeks, suggesting he’s learning how to lay off breaking pitches out of the zone. That’s not a scouting report, just some armchair analysis of stats.

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    2. I touched on this in a piece about two weeks ago https://phuturephillies.com/2013/12/05/maikel-francos-contact/, there are some bad trends but he is working on them. Since I wrote the piece he is hitting .233/.343/.467 with 5 BBs to 4 Ks. However he is still making really poor contact and is rolling over on a ton of ground balls to the pull side. I wouldn’t worry too much right now, catch touched on a lot of the reason he is struggling based on competition.

      The overall takeaway should be that he isn’t ready yet and AAA may be a large challenge for him. But remember he has less than 300 PAs in AA, he has time to work things out.

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  13. Any 2014 progress to be foreseen with prospect of yesteryear: Larry Green? I eagerly await your reply. (Sidenote: I purchased my first Crosscutters cap for Xmas gift to self!)

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    1. FWIW- Inside sources say that adjustments have been made and they’re excited for the first time since they drafted him.

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    2. I am not too optimistic. They are working on completely overhauling the swing and if his end of year BP swing is any indication it is starting to look good (I looked at briefly on my personal site http://philliesminorthoughts.wordpress.com/2013/11/24/larry-greenes-swing-in-two-vidoes/).

      That being said, Greene is a first baseman down the road, and the power is going to have to play as a 70 tool and I am not sure the hit tool allows that. It will be a long way for him to get back to relevance and at the right he is going he might not make it to AA.

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  14. Wow no love for Cam Perkins? I like Altherr and I like Dugan but I think Perkins might be the best pure hitter out of all of them when the dust settles.

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    1. I do think he has the best hit tool of the trio but the lack of another tool just makes him the next Susdorf.

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      1. Yeah, that’s the concern with him, but he’s got a lot bigger frame than susdorf, is said to be a pretty good fielder (Susdorf, is just kind of “there”), and looks like he can develop and fill out (he seemed oddly underdeveloped when I saw him the Az. Fall League AS game). But he’s got to make some headway this year or he’ll probably be no better than a AAAA guy, but he’s certainly going to move through the system.

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    2. I have Perkins well behind the other two. Perkins has the best hit tool of the group but that has a lot to do with Dugan and Altherr’s hit tools. I am not a huge fan of Perkins’ swing (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AtglOYohxQ&noredirect=1) and I am not sure it is going to be conducive to a ton of power or on base ability. In the field he is average. He is a better player and prospect than Susdorf, but his ceiling is more 4th OF, while the other two have more major league regular ceilings

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  15. Any projections on who will be the starting pitchers for each minor league level? I want to see who they still think can start and who gets moved to the pen.

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    1. This is going to be rough, but my guesses would be (with holes filled in by veterans and draft picks)
      LHV: Morgan, Biddle, Buchanan,
      REA: Garner, Milner, Hanson, Severino
      CLW: Watson, Nunez, Prosinski, Mecias*, Brady
      LKW: Gueller, Anderson, Martin, Rios
      WPT: Viza, Keys, Garcia, Artega
      GCL: Alezones

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      1. Pettibone will likely start back at LHV. Its not impossible that Rosin will be back after not making the Dodgers. Leiter could start at CLR. They also still like Klevan and Stewart.

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      2. I though LHV was going to be full but then Cloyd(cut), Martin(relief), Rosin(drafted), and Pettibone(MLB) were taken off the table.
        I am not sure where Phillies put MAG. Innings are going to be an issue with him I think, so I’d probably start him in Spring Training but give him a relief role at either MLB or AAA.

        I agree with your estimates though. Rosin, if returned probably goes to AAA starter.

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    1. Bradley made indications that if he didn’t get what he would have gotten pre-injury (Top 15 money) he would go back to school for his senior year. Teams were scared away by the price tag as well as concerns about how his wrist would heal up. He ended up signing a pick after Greene for only $100,000 more

      Greene entered the draft quickly climbing up boards by showing the best raw power in the draft. There we some concerns about the competition he faced, but some scouts thought he was athletic enough (was recruited to play LB for Alabama) to handle to LF and provide defensive value there. The buzz out of Philly at the time is they thought he compared favorably to Singleton with less polish but more power and a better defender.

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  17. Thanks for the reply on the question I had. I have another. I know I’ve been following through the system and signings for quite a while now. Whats the placement and outlook gonna be for the international signings of Julsan Kamara and Luis Encarnacion come this spring? Any predictions?

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    1. Encarnacion was here in for Florida Instructional League this fall (as was Bryan Martelo) and given the Phillies track record with big money LA signings, both should be starting in the GCL. Kamera should be coming over at some point this spring when classes are done. Given his age and how raw he is I would expect him to also be in the GCL, the best way at this point to think of Kamera is as a late round toolsy HS OF 2014 draftee from an area with poor competition. There are certainly things to like in the raw athleticism and tools, but he is a true lottery ticket at this point.

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  18. Matt, I love Crawford as an overall player, but the one concern I have is do you think he will be able to add power to his game? The swing seems to generate power but he is so skinny, do you believe the power will come?

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    1. I don’t know too much but Eric Longenhagen at Crashburn Alley did an awesome two part Crawford scouting report here http://crashburnalley.com/2013/06/19/the-future-is-unwritten-an-exhaustive-jp-crawford-scouting-report/ and here http://crashburnalley.com/2013/09/24/the-future-is-unwritten-jp-crawford-part-two/.

      He puts a 35 on the future power, which is enough that pitchers won’t be able to just attack him in the zone with impunity and allow the approach to play in games. I wouldn’t worry too much about the lack of power. The bat is not going to be what carries Crawford, he is not going to be Simmons or Lindor defensively but he is going to be a plus defender at shortstop. The bat is conducive to hard contact, he is not a burner, but a very smart runner. On top of all that he plays in control with a great feel for the game which should allow the physical tools to play up. It is a very special package all around.

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      2. Matt,
        When I read the article on Martelo, he thought he would play in Venezuela this year. Maybe they told him that. I guess we will see this Spring.

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    1. I don’t have anything on Gueller, he is going to be someone I am going to be asking a ton about in the spring. The velocity was down in Williamsport and the rest of the stuff just looked sluggish. A could offseason could help bring it up. If the velocity gets back to being plus it could really help the secondary pitch development as they show good potential.

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  20. This may be an impossible question to answer, but I will ask it anyways:

    Carlos Tocci is now 18 years old. Much has been written on this site about his youth and his slender stature, as well as where he projects should his frame fill out. If he were from the US, he would be in his senior year of HS, and would be eligible for the 2014 draft. If he were draft eligible, in which round would you project him to be taken?

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    1. He would be a first round pick. If he was in the 2013 draft I would have taken him around 20. I would have taken him ahead of Nick Ciuffo, Billy McKinney, and Christian Arroyo. He has survived full season ball already, has advanced feel for the game, is a premium defender at a premium defensive position, and he has projection left.

      The most recent update had him already having put on 10 pounds of muscle beyond his initial playing weight by the time he showed up to Instructs this fall so he is already starting to get bigger and stronger.

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  22. How many position players do we have in our system that project to even have the possibility of being an average MLB starter? Possible all star? Unfortunately, neither is a long list.

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    1. I am going to take this off a little bit, maybe not in the direction you meant to go and divide this into a floor/likely role and then more of a ceiling/projection role, because there is talent it just isn’t safe talent.

      In terms of floor the only two regulars are Crawford and Franco, both have too much risk to say they are likely all-stars

      As for the ceiling/projection:
      All-Star: Franco, Crawford, Sandberg, Pujols, Encarnacion, Quinn
      Regulars: Tocci, Grullon, Altherr, Knapp, Joseph, Z Green, Cozens, J Hernandez, Canelo, Pullin, Dugan, Tromp, Sweaney

      The system is actually really deep in the low minors with position prospects, it is the pitching and high minors that are more of the problem

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  23. How excited should we be about Aaron Altherr? He’s an interesting case, in that I feel like he has generated a certain amount of excitement from the national prospect writers without really becoming a darling of the close followers of the system on this site. BA has him at #9 in the system. Do you think that’s a reach?

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    1. I don’t, now that the season is over and you can start to put the pieces together, you realize that as a true CF there is a lot less pressure on the bat to perform. He is only starting to show off all the tools. The hit tool is the big question, but now there is a 4th OF floor for him and that makes him a better prospect than Dugan and some of the other guys in that range.

      The other thing to keep in mind is that the system from #4 to about #20 has very little seperation

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      1. With his natural power, if he can make contact with regularity and play a credible center field I think he has a chance to be a really good player.

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  24. Matt — Have you heard anything about whether or not the Phillies will be granted a 4th option year for Hernandez. Another team’s recently signed international player was ruled eligible for the just-completed Rule 5 draft, because he signed two different contracts with his team. Does this rule apply to MAG, or did he never receive a contract to sign for the higher $.

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    1. I have not yet, I know the 4th option is awarded closer to the start of the season so no need to worry yet.

      I am not positive on the details of how the contracts were signed with MAG, but it was irrelevant because he was signed to a major league contract and was on the 40 man roster

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  25. On Minors Pitching…
    Is Nick Hernandez still around? Leiter might be a starter for either LWK or CLW. Any update on Brady, I really liked him this time last year? Ethan Stewart?

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    1. Hernandez is still around but I am not positive he makes it through Spring Training and that he gets a role anywhere, I forgot about Leiter his location is dependent on how everyone else does as well as things like Watson’s injury. Brady was back healthy by the end of the year, I don’t know more than that, I also still think he is a reliever long term. I will be extremely shocked if Stewart is in a rotation in 2014, given his struggles I would expect him to either be in a bullpen or out of the org

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  26. With Darin Ruf’s graduation to the major league bench (or possibly a taxi squad role) who in the system is most likely to take his place as the attractive slash line/old-for-his-level/positionally limited/overachieving white guy most likely to generate endless comment wars over the coming season? We may lack true blue chip prospects in this system, but like Doctor Who, there always seems to be someone new to step into the Matt Rizzotti role.

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    1. My money is on Cameron Perkins, by the way, but I’m willing to hear other suggestions.

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    2. The easy call here is Jim Murphy who is even older than Ruf, but I think that might be too easy. Perkins is actually a better prospect than the rest of them (even than Ruf, who I continue to be really low on).

      I actually think the guy is Cameron Rupp who will be in AAA to start the season. I think Rupp will be a solid back up catcher but expect clamboring for him to be the catcher of the future in Ruiz has a bad week

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      2. And a bold call, too, in that I expect a big ol’ haymaker from BradinDC to fly in any second now.

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  27. What are Adam Morgan’s chances to make the rotation during spring training? And if he can’t make the rotation how much projection does he have left in him?

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    1. It all comes down to the shoulder.

      I think there is 0% chance Morgan makes the major league rotation to start the year. He is not on the 40 man so they would need to give him a spot, they can control his service time in AAA, they can monitor and alter is workload better in AAA, and they can let him get his feel back for all of his pitches.

      Best case scenario is that he is the first guy up like Pettibone was last year. If the stuff all comes back he could be a mid-rotation starter and be the guy I ranked 1A a year ago. If the stuff doesn’t come back he could be more of #4/#5 and worst case is you put him in the bullpen and use all of his pitches in an effective role.

      As for projection he is physically filled out but there is potentially more growth in the changeup and curveball which are more average now, but can flash better.

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      1. Unless I’m missing something, it seems like the competition for the #5 slot in the rotation, with Cloyd out of the organization, now comes down to Pettibone and MAG. I could definitely see a scenario in which neither of those players performs well in Spring Training and opens the door for someone like Martin or even Morgan, if he looks fully recovered. As a #5, they could still monitor his innings pretty closely, especially early in the season. I’m not saying it’s likely to happen, I’m just saying, man, the cupboard is REALLY bare,

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        1. My guess is that it is an open competition for the #4 and #5 slots (Hernandez has the #3 slot, not 3rd best pitcher). They have said that Pettibone and Martin will be stretched out, you have Kendrick and MAG, Morgan will likely be in camp, Biddle will be there but is out of the competition. I would expect at least one other veteranny minor league type to be there as well.

          If it were up to me MAG and Pettibone would be in the rotation with Kendrick ready to step in at a moment’s notice.

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          1. They’re going to be paying Kendrick starter money in arbitration, so I expect he will be penciled in as the #4. Whether or not these things should matter, they do.

            I suspect it may be a long time before we see MAG in Philadelphia, just reading the tea leaves from Amaro’s recent comments. And Pettibone is definitely an unproven quantity who battled some injury things. That’s where I see an opening for someone like Morgan or (god forbid) a nonroster invite type.

            Of course, I’m hoping that this is all misdirection and Amaro is getting ready to sign a reasonable deal with Arroyo or Ubaldo or one of the other mid-rotation arms still out there. I like Ubaldo the best just because he’s the youngest and seems to have the most upside (though I realize this is a general discussion point, so I’ll leave it at that).

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            1. KK will definitely be in the rotation unless he’s traded, which is doubtful. People forget he actually pitched well last year in the first half. Whether he got tired, got hurt, or just stunk after that, we’ll never know. I’m also pretty sure that MAG will be in Philly to start the year but his role is yet to be defined. Don’t forget that Pettibone is also coming back from an injury. I think he’ll start the year at LHV, to get easy innings in, along side Morgan. Also, I don’t think they want to pull Martin out of the pen where I think he can be a star to be mediocre at best as a starter. Sandberg talked about how they need pitching, (we all know they need pitching) he can’t be happy with them just adding former Fausto. I’m still hoping they sign someone else despite all the reports to the contrary. Maybe AJ Burnett will want to pitch in Philly one year before retiring. This rotation sure looks thin at the moment.

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            2. Murray….Ruben said it over the weekend…they are going to stretch out Martin in the spring in order to give him the opp to start.

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            4. Most likely, we’ll see MAG, Pettibone, and Martin competing for the 5th spot, with KK and former Fausto locked in spots. In reality, we have no #3 starter and KK is only a marginal #4. If this is our going to be our rotation, RAJ should roll out the white flag now and trade Lee. Will a July trade get more or less than trading him now?

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  28. Beside the $20M posting fee, what would it take, $$$/Yrs, to sign Masa Tananka once he hits the open market?

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    1. My guess is 6yrs 100 million, it seems right and it seems to be number a lot of people keep going to.

      Between Yankees, Mariners, Cubs, Angels, there will be a lot of desperate teams interested and a lot more with interest

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  29. With the surprisingly poor year that Biddle had in ’13, will they start him in Reading or Lehigh Valley? I’d vote for Reading with the hope he regains his prior promise and moves up to LV mid-season. What say you?

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    1. Again, not directed to me, but I think placement will be contingent on his showing in ST. He could go either way. If they return him to Reading, I suspect it will be to see if he dominates and, if he does, he could be promoted after 3 or 4 starts. I’m sure they want and need him in LhV, but only if he’s ready.

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    2. Normally I would assume he is a lock for LHV based on the org’s opinion of him. However, they are implementing an org wide policy requiring pitchers to throw a certain percentage of strikes to advance so they could hold him back in AA to start the year.

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  30. Matt, thank you for the QA. Two questions for you…

    1. The Phillies for the last couple years have been credited with intriguing low level prospects, but it doesn’t seem much has come of it. Is it a case of poor player development, bad luck, or just the younger prospects being overrated because the upper levels were barren (the old adage that just because every team has a top 10 or 20 prospect list doesn’t mean it has 10 or 20 good prospects).

    2. A little offbeat but if the Phillies announced tomorrow that Sam Hinkie was hired to replace RAJ would you consider them better off?

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    1. 1. The first wave dissipated (May, Colvin), was traded (Cosart, Singleton, Santana), or is still arriving (Pettibone, Altherr, Dugan). But what you are regaling hearing about is the 2011 draft class to now, headlined by Roman Quinn and now including a whole host of prospects that were in Lakewood and below. It has been a slow build but you are seeing the pop ups like Franco have high ceilings.

      2. Yes, I believe that Hinkie would hire smart people to cover his weaknesses. But more importantly I think he would approach the team objectively and make moves for the near and long term

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    1. (this for pond_scum too)
      I think there is a chance he is back. He is going to sign a 1 year minor league contract that will be worth some amount of money. I don’t think money is going to be the motivating factors as much as comfort with an organization and plan for him going forward. The Phillies really loved his upside, so if there people still around from when he was in the org I could see them bringing him back. A lot of teams are going to be interested because of the low risk, but it is going to come down to his comfort level most of all.

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