Yesterday the Phillies made a small little trade that could end up being a small victory or it could be a net zero.
The Phillies shipped out Erik Kratz, who is a below average back up catcher with some pop and a good throwing arm, along with Rob Rasmussen (acquired for Michael Young) in exchange for Blue Jays reliever Brad Lincoln.
Rasmussen who I wrote about recently shows 4 averagish pitches from a really small frame. He has an outside shot at being a #5 starter, but his most likely role is middle reliever or LOOGY.
Lincoln was the #4 pick in the 2006 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He showed two plus or better pitches with his fastball and curveball, but the changeup needed work. Lincoln then missed all of 2007 to Tommy John surgery and the stuff was a little worse when he returned to action. The lost time and then accelerated pace caused the changeup to never develop. After struggling for years in the rotation the Pirates put him in the pen in 2012 where he was dominant (though with HR tendencies), during the middle of the season he was shipped to Toronto in exchange for Travis Snider. Lincoln struggled in Toronto both in 2012 and 2013 (but was good in AAA for Toronto). Lincoln brings a plus fastball that sits 92-94 touching 96 and a plus curveball with control (except for time in Toronto). He could be a set up relief pitcher profile, but more likely is a middle reliever.
This move likely spells the end of Michael Stutes getting innings in Philadelphia and could impede BJ Rosenberg from making the major league pen. Kratz was replaced with Wil Nieves which likely means a net zero change in terms of Cameron Rupp‘s chances to make the team
Overall the Phillies added a little bit of relief upside, but not enough to move the needle in any sort of meaningful way.
This is a typical Gillick type move. It probably will end up being a net zero move but anytime you can get an arm like Lincoln’s for basically nothing, its a good move. I see Nieves as being a half year back up and then expect Rupp and Joseph to both move up a level. Not much downside to it.
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At first glance, it seems like a lot to give up for what amounts to be a LOOGY. He looked appealing at the deadline in 2012, but the Phils got Lindblom instead. He was good with the Pirates that year; maybe he can get back to that. Risky move, I think.
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Lincoln is a righty.
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Crud. That’s what I get for only scanning the post.
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The Pirates could have had Kershaw, Lincecum, and/or Schrzer instead of Lincoln……3 SP who have won a combined 5 Cy Youngs.
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Wasn’t Lincoln drafted out of U of Houston as a starter?
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He was, showed front of the rotation stuff too (70 fastball and 60+ curveball) Tommy John set him really far back
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Yea, it can’t really hurt and he is cheap. Not sure how Lincoln is any different from Rosenberg or De Fratus. All three seem similar. This team needs more than tinkering. Curious to see what Amaro has planned.
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He does not come with a 3 year, $12 million contract and could potentially be as good as that player that Amaro has not wasted money on yet. One can never have enough good, inexpensive arms in the bullpen as some will get hurt and some will have bad years.
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Nick, did my ears deceive me? Did you really type Amaro and planning in the same sentence?
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haha, I know, what was I thinking…haha
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I heard somewhere last night that the Phillies received a competitive balance draft pick from the Jays in this trade. Is that correct?
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No truth to that, just the three players involved
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I just watched an old Jim Kaat interview on MLB over the weekend. He said the most talented teammate he ever had was Dick Allen. For us over 50, its nice to hear and not a shocker but it is still a little bit of a surprise. What if……
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MOM
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Great trade. First move by RAJ in a while that I could actually endorse
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By my math, I think the Phils have another 40 man spot open after this trade
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It was replaced immediately by Nieves
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How when both were on the 40 man kratz and rasmussan
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(Nieves + Lincoln) – (Kratz + Rasmussan)= zero
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At first it was reported as a minor league deal
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Nieves got a major league deal? Wow. I thought for sure it be a minor league deal w/ an invite to Spring Training.
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It’s so hard for everyone to admit because we’ve been spoiled by this organization in recent years, but the current direction of the team reminds me of the mid to late 90’s, nothing moves like this. Marlon Byrd brought back memories of Greg Jeffries. I know Amaro has a lot of supporters on this board I just wish you all saw how poor of a job he is doing.
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this situation is way beyond Amaro at this point. Even Billy Bean would look incompetent trying to get them out of their current state. The truth is they need atleast 3-4 years of drafting in the top 12.
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by the way, I LOVE THE LINKS to Baseball Reference. Well done, I owe you a beer. Hope this is a continuing trend on the articles.
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+1
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Yes, baseball-reference links are always a good thing.
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On another matter, what’s going on with Franco in Winter League ball. His average has sunk to the .230 range?
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maybe they are tinkering with ABS.
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If I were to make a guess, I’d say he’s tired. He has 660 ABs on the season which is now over 10 months old. Although these winter leagues don’t have pitchers like the MLB, there is some talent there and a lot of old wily veterans who can be tough on a young kid who hasn’t played above AA.
They could be working on his swing and the number of Ks could be an indicator of that. Although he’s hitting only .121 in his last 10 games, his Ks have dropped from around 1 in every 4 ABs to 1 in every 5. In his last 8 games, his K to AB ratio is more like 1 in every 7. Short season disclaimer applies but I’m trying to find the silver lining.
Maybe you should take a look at Galvis. His stats have been very good.
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Agreed. He’s probably seeing good deception and better offspeed stuff than he’s ever seen before.
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As others have said, he is tired and the approach is poor against off speed pitches and that is what he is seeing a ton of in winter ball. Just remember he only has half a season of AA under his belt. The approach is still really raw and even if the talent is there, the reps against good pitchers isn’t there yet.
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It reinforces the notion that he will probably need a year, or nearly a year, at AAA to adjust. Perhaps more than that. Still a great prospect, but he’s not ready for the big leagues yet.
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FWIW he hit his 2nd HR last night. Fatigue makes sense though the K/BB ratio makes it pretty clear he needs another year of development. Probably seeing really good offspeed stuff for the first time this winter.
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I agree on Franco. Prob. not quite ready for the bigs,yet. Considering he started last year in Clearwater, it’s not a huge deal as long as he keeps progressing this upcoming year. It wouldn’t shock me if he starts the year in AA as opposed to AAA,either.
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Phillies now have the #1 overall pick in the rule 5 draft. Should be a good way to add some bullpen depth or maybe bring in a guy to compete for a Utility job.
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What was I thinking? Astros should have the #1 pick. Definitely misread that, still, should be a nice way to add a guy with upside for a look in spring training.
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They have the Cubs pick which I say is number 4, and still have 7. They got the Cubs pick as a result of filing a grievance on the Lendy Castillo situation. The fact they accepted a Rule 5 pick to settle the grievance indicates to me they plan to make a Rule 5 pick, which is good, and I think they should aim higher than some one for last spot on the roster. They also might acquire the first pick by offering the 2 rule 5 picks they currently have.
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Which is why the Nieves signing seems premature to me.
I don’t hate Nieves but why not see if there is a Rule5 C worth a backup shot?
Many backup C will still be looking for jobs in the next few weeks. (I’d like to give a shot to Lou Marson or see about Austin Rommine).
Even better for someone on a minor league deal with an out clause if not on the roster so Phillies could decide between the Rule5 and the vet. With Ruiz as the starter, the backup is likely to get some real playing time which might be enough to entice a FA to sign a lesser deal..
However, I figured Phillies would go with a 10yr vet type though, because of the ‘veteran’ pitching staff. While is more ‘rebuild’ mode, I’d prefer Amaro and Phillies waited out the Free Agents to see if they can get a cheaper guy.
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Its a one year deal and you know what your getting, cant see one thing wrong with it. A rule 5 guy and a catcher what are the odds, so you take the sure thing, and take best player you can in draft,without regard to position
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IMO, Rule 5 vs Rule 4 drafting, when a team is drafting late or low, I’d draft for need in Rule 5 and best available in Rule 4.
Just my preference.
But this time around the Phillies, draft high in both Rule 5 and June 2014’s Rule 4…so whoever is drafted is rated higher then most.
In June 2014 that class is one of the better ones in the last few years with a good amount of college and high school pitchers, especially right-handers., ie Hoffman, Beede, Kozek, Nola, Fedde, Weaver et al.
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Yankees did not protect Austin Romine? I can only assume that they will go with Sanchez and Murphy as their two leading catching prospects then.
If he is there I would take a chance on him or that Cuban lefty pitcher they left unprotected.
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