Scout.com Phillies Top 20

Prospect Rankings

Kiley McDaniel is the Minor League analyst for scout.com and he has just released his Phillies Top Prospect list.  Given that is usually behind a paywall that many of us venture beyond it hasn’t always been a well covered list.  But this year the list is free http://sbb.scout.com/2/1348329.html and so we will take a look at it.  A note he has left off players with significant MLB or professional time like MAG, Cesar, Asche, De Fratus, Pettibone, Aumont, Savery, and Galvis

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. J.P. Crawford
  3. Jesse Biddle
  4. Ethan Martin
  5. Aaron Altherr
  6. Dylan Cozens
  7. Andrew Knapp
  8. Ken Giles
  9. Kelly Dugan
  10. Zach Green
  11. Yoel Mecias
  12. Roman Quinn
  13. Shane Watson
  14. Zach Collier
  15. Adam Morgan
  16. Luis Encarnacion
  17. Carlos Tocci
  18. Cord Sandberg
  19. Tommy Joseph
  20. Severino Gonzalez

My Thoughts:

  • Crawford/Biddle is a real debate, depending on how much you think injuries affected Biddle’s year
  • Scouts really like Altherr because he can play CF
  • I love Mecias at #11, it might be the highest upside arm in the system after Biddle
  • Post-injury Quinn makes everyone sad
  • Kiley did not like Encarnacion that much and still ranked him 16
  • If you don’t believe in Tocci this is the fall
  • Joseph seems about right
  • Collier seems really high
  • Dugan is really devisive
  • Some scouts absolutely love Knapp
  • I am going to beat the drum for Deivi Grullon all offseason, he is my #1 catcher, and he might make my Top 10
  • After all season of hearing the Julio Rodriguez scary stories about Severino and worrying about the fastball, the real issue is that he might not physical enough to start
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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

59 thoughts on “Scout.com Phillies Top 20”

  3. I found it interesting that Biddle’s curve was list as solid average. I thought I had heard that his curveball was possibly the best curve in the minors.

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  4. I was surprised that Biddle’s curve was listed as average. I thought that his curveball was a plus pitch and one of the best curves in the minors.

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    2. He managed to stay under the innings and service time thresholds. He would have passed the innings if they let him start the rest of the year, but the bullpen held that count down.

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  7. Wow! This is a lousy Top 10. Only confirms how low a level our Pharm system has fallen.

    The only pathway to a good ML team is by being willing to grab some outstanding prospects from out of the US and pay the kind of money it takes. The draft, of course is important, but outstanding prospects from LA have been gathered by several teams…Cubs, Rangers, Dodgers, etc. have been doing.

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  8. I guess I am a serious not a believer in Altherr. I would likely not protect him for Rule5 since I think he is too far away and think he is a fringe starter for another team to stash him. I guess that is why I keep trying to trade him since I think he is overrated.

    I am not convinced that Knapp is much of anything but I suppose ‘hitting catchers’ are usually highly rated until something breaks (defense poor or offense not as projected).

    I have not put my Top30 together but I suppose most of these guys would be on it. But the system seems very weak if Franco has a holey swing and Biddle remains inconsistent. However, at least most of the guys do something that makes me think they could be quality major leaguers so I look forward to see what they can do this year.

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  9. Matt I really liked Grullon’s season. You had him around mid teens last time you thought about his ranking, what’s making him trend up in your mind?

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    1. Every report I here has people raving about the defense. I also have looked at how I evaluate catchers and I think I have underrated defense up to this point. He may never be better than Chooch on offense but Chooch just got 26 million for his age 35-37 seasons.

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    1. You agree with this list? Haha. I find some of the rankings highly highly questionable. Morgan at 15 and Tocci at 17 are some of the most egregious

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  13. From #5 to #20 its a crapshoot here. However a year from now this has the potential of being much stronger list/system. 2014 will be a make it or break it year for many of these players and will show their true potential. I figure some will step up while failure and injury will hurt others

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  14. Glad to see people not shouting in rage that Martin is $#4. He projects as a reliever–we all witnessed that last year with the Big Club; he can’t get through a line-up the third time. And usually this board de-values RP prospects. I think its great a longman/emergency starter can be rated so highly.

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    1. I certainly won’t have Martin that high but then again it’s somewhat wide open after Franco, Crawford and Biddle. I love another that another source is recognizing Altherr. The kid quietly put up a very big year and I expect the entire Reading outfield (Altherr-Dugan-Perkins) to put up big numbers next season

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      1. I would say that Altherr put up an okay year. It’s a year that is consistent with a guy becoming an okay major leaguer but it is also consistent with him becoming a guy who never gets out of AAA. At best, his year was inconclusive, although reports of his tools are encouraging. This year is absolutely huge for him.

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    2. Since a long man is simply mostly used when the starting pitcher is bombed out of the game early, and put in to throw multiple innings so that the starters and more important relievers can be spared the throwing of, for the most part, meaningless innings over the course of a long season,and a spot starter is used,, rarely, when there is a need to spare the starters; arms over the course of a long season, So if a guy with that type of profile, is really the 4th best guy you got, Yeah, GEE, that’s really great

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    3. Third time through the lineup?!? What kind of crap logic are you actually using to make that evaluation? I feel the need to call you out because this kind of “mentality” when evaluating players is not only counterproductive, but also damaging to the less baseball educated people who come here and assume comments like that have merit.

      If you’re making the case that he shows a lack of stamina and his performance in innings 5-7+ is disproportionately worse than other pitchers (because let’s be honest here, all pitchers get worse as the game goes on), then fine, but show the stats to prove it instead of making matter-of-fact statements that are anything but. Show pitch FX data that his pitches have less bite and his fastball less movement or velocity in later innings (again disproportional to other pitchers).

      If on the other hand you’re contending that his lack of skill somehow results in batters being able to adjust to him, show us something, anything, that proves that is the likely cause of the above because I honestly have a hard time accepting any comment like that at face value.

      Btw, I’m not a huge Martin fan but the quality the comments on this site has diminished lately and I encourage you and anyone else to bring empirical evidence to the table when making comments about players.

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      1. Glad to see Martin’s dad here on the board. (just kidding)

        Contrary to your point, many pitchers get stronger as the game goes on; once their arm is more loose.

        But its not a question of stamina for Martin–like for most relievers, its his number of different pitches.

        The biggest difference between starters and relievers is their number of different pitches. To get through a line-up a third time, you need a variety of pitches; otherwise hitters make adjustments and lock-on to what you’re dealing.

        That said, even though now Martin projects as a long man/spot starter, I think he has the stuff to eventually become a 7th or even 8th inning guy; which does help his profile.

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      2. The problem actually stems from his velocity dropping off. At least in the majors there was a 3-4 mph difference in his fastball after about 40 pitches. He is near unhittable in the first few innnings and then more hittable afterwards.

        Ideally Martin is a multi-inning back of a bullpen type reliever (something that really does not exist right now). If you insist that Papelbon is your “closer” than Martin is a guy to go get you the 7th and 8th innings on those days. You might not want to use him on back to back days in that case, but he could be a real weapon to shorten games.

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  16. I have not seen a lot of these players, so just based on what i have read, cant understand why morgan is lower than alteer, for one. and if collier is in top twenty we really need to upgrade this system.

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    1. Morgan was shut down twice with a sore shoulder and put up bad numbers last year. Yeah, including Collie was a big error.

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  17. wow, our farm is in poor shape.. I don’t trust scout.com.. think many here know the system better…

    Think Amaro is holding us back by aiming for what looks to be .500 at best. Would be better to hit reset, deal Lee (and money) if we need to for top flight prospects, embrace mediocrity for a few years, then hit the gates once Howard’s albatross is off the books

    But, this list is dumb.. as pointed our above, we have many young players form the (DR?) who offer more promise than most of this list

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    1. And whom, exactly, would that be? Guys playing in the DR? Seriously? That is guys who are a year away from even playing in the GCL, in a system in which our best Latin American signees bypass the DL and VL and come directly to GCL. This is actually a fairly good list — the best we have on offer in our system. We likely would all sub 2 or 3 guys of our choice for 2 or 3 of the guys from his list, but I seriously doubt that many of us wouldn’t have at least 15 ot the guys whom scout.com lists as part of our personal top 20. Go ahead, rise to the challenge — list even 5 guys in the Phillies system who belong in the top 20 list, who were missed.

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      1. eh, dont have the time or desire to.. meant Pujols and Guillon but didnt know how to spell his name and didnt feel like googling it…. so just said the young players from the DR? because I forgot where they were from.. apologize

        greater point is that from below 3 it is a pretty ugly list. Like Cozens. We have been hurt by injury and trade..

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        1. I strongly agree on Guillon — he is in my top 10. I also see Pujols as a legit top 20 guy. Who to delete to make room for them? Collier for sure. I don’t see an obvious second guy. I think there are a number of guys, including Pujols, who are tightly bunched around 20. I agree it is a bit of an ugly list, only not because scout.com has chosen poorly, but because our farm is weak. I’d say about #20 in baseball.

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          1. I am not sure it is weakness so much as it is fairly deep on guys in that Rookie ball to low-A level that there is not a lot of separation. The next group of prospects after those 20 isn’t too far off, I still really like Pullin, Anderson is interesting (more on him this offseason, but for now think of him as a Pettibone starter kit), as is Jan Hernandez, some will like Lino and Tromp, and others will champion Perkins. The Phillies gave a lot of money to Keys and Viza who have upside as does Canelo and Herlis. Once these guys start all getting into full season ball then there will be some separation, but for now you can mix and match as you want.

            All that I think the system is probably in the 14-17 range based on the top 3 prospects, though I haven’t thought too much about it since the Quinn injury (also BA ranking will be higher because they count MAG).

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    2. Like I said above, the article does not say that Dugan is divisive. The only time divisive is used in the article is in reference to Andrew Knapp. The story on Dugan according to the article is a re-telling of physical characteristics, and stating that he has made strides as a hitter and If there is improvement at AA, he may grow into a lower level MLB starter. Don’t see more than one opinion there. If there is any divisiveness it stems from the incongruity of the critique on here with the writings of the professional at scout.com.

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    1. He should be. Collier certainly doesn’t need to be in the Top 20 at all, and Giles, who I love, does not need to be top 15 let alone 8. It’s also a shame that Gueller, two year’s removed from being a supplemental (1a) pick, cannot manage to break the Top 20.

      All in all it’s difficult to argue with the rankings. You could probably make a reasonable argument for ten different players appearing in the 4-6 range. There’s a lot of mediocrity and players with holes in their game though.

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  20. Ethan Martin has had enough MLB time IMO that he shouldn’t be on the list. Quinn and Collier are not top 20 prospects. Mitch Gueller and Drew Anderson should be on the list. And finally a realistic ranking for Joseph. Also IMO Biddle’s stats were down not only because of injury, but also lack of run support. I still rank him #1.

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    1. We still have to see how he recovers from injury, but Quinn most certainly is a top 20 prospect. Drew Anderson could have a spot on the list, although I’m not sure the stuff is really there, but Gueller has yet to show much of anything. Run support has nothing to do with Biddle’s poor stats. Hardly anyone judges minor league pitchers based on W-L record. Biddle has been downgraded for all of the walks. He ended the season being virtually unable to throw a strike, causing me to suspect an arm injury. In any case, his K/9 and H/9 for the year as a whole are excellent, so if healthy there is still a lot there. You just can’t walk more than 5/9 IP. To me, until he learns a lot better control, he isn’t our #1 — basically he’s Martin.

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      1. I’ve personally watched Quinn play in multiple games, 2012 in Williamsport and 2013 in Lakewood (pre-injury). Speed is all he has, and IMO that’s not enough to be a top 20. He was an outfielder in HS and has struggled both years trying to be a shortstop. He makes too many errors, both fielding and throwing to be a legit SS prospect. He doesn’t have the arm to play outfield in the pros. Where does that leave him? He did pretty good at the plate in Williamsport but tailed off considerably in Lakewood before the broken wrist ended his season. Now another major injury. Sorry, not buying it. Speed + hype does not equal a top 20 prospect. Anderson, Gueller and Shane Martin also showed plenty of heat in 2013. They all need more control, but that’s typical at their level. What does run support have to do with it? How about the stress of knowing that one run your team has put up may be all you get? I guess I only saw Biddle pitch on his good days. Still looked pretty darn good to me.

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        1. I should have also made the point that Biddle was only 21 and pitching in AA Reading. Most of his contemporaries were somewhere between Lakewood and the GCL. Plenty of upside there.

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          1. You also should have made the point that you clearly favor pitchers and you are not a professional scout. The only reports I’ve read on Quinn say his arm is at least average, most say above-average or plus. 80 speed is the unanimous decision (at least pre-injury, we’ll see the effects of the injury in due time). He’s also shown an aptitude for switch-hitting (something he had never done prior to going pro), moderate power with room for some growth, the ability to use his speed (this is very important, speed means nothing if you can’t harness it in games), and at least a sense of what he was doing at the plate. He was not showing a plus hit tool at present, but he was flashing average to above. Plus, the consensus is that the problems with his defense are those that are capable of being ironed out over time, with repetition. He has all the tools to succeed, he’s just raw.

            Not unlike the pitchers you mentioned. Why do you think it more likely that a pitcher harnesses their control than a teenage shortstop becoming comfortable with his new position and growing into his body?

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            1. No I am not a professional scout, nor do I favor pitchers. Your statement is pure nonsense. I made no such comparison. I mention Anderson and Gueller in the context of this discussion as players who could be in the top 20 for their skills and development of same. I don’t know how you perceive that as a bias for pitchers. Development is what I am talking about. From beginning to end of season a player should develop his skills. The pitchers I mentioned did just that. So did position players like Dylan Cozens, Zach Green, Maikel Franco and Cameron Perkins.

              Regarding Quinn, I notice you say that you have “read” reports about Quinn’s arm. Though, as you say, I am not a pro scout, I have actually seen that arm in action many times – and it isn’t pretty. In 2012 at Williamsport, Quinn got worse as the season progressed. In 2013 at Lakewood his glove and arm weren’t even as good as at season end in Williamsport, and his bat disappeared. He was not becoming “comfortable” at SS, and there was quite a bit written about that. Look it up since you would rather read than go see for yourself. BTW, he IS 20 years old, pretty much done growing.

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            2. My lack of seeing him is not because I’d rather read. I don’t live anywhere near where they play. But yes, I trust professional scouts more than you. Especially when I have not seen a single person corroborate your opinion.

              You think people are done growing at 20? That’s nonsense. He’s unlikely to add more height. But muscle? There’s still plenty of growth there if his body is conducive for it.

              And honestly, I would absolutely love to see anyone on this site try to learn how to play SS in two years. It is ridiculously complex. I’m not saying he’ll be able to stick, but two seasons of growing pains is not indicative of anything other than the position is extremely difficult. The only more difficult position is Catcher, which usually takes 2-3 more years than other positions for players to “master.”

              Just because the stat line didn’t show it (which I could argue) and your limited viewing of him didn’t confirm it (which may have been that you didn’t know what you were seeing, or that you missed or, or that you caught him on bad days, etc. etc. etc.) doesn’t mean Quinn wasn’t developing his skills.

              And any ways, what have you SEEN about Quinn’s arm? Was he having trouble throwing when he was set? Or was it that the ball bounced sometimes when he was throwing off balance or on the run? Because I HAVE seen videos of his throws, and he is not lacking in arm strength.

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  21. i love how he puts a dollar amount on a prospect’s value to their organization. It essentially quantifies everyone’s complaints about Ruben.

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  22. Article on Jesse Biddle worth reading. I hope this link works. If not just go to Philly.com and look it up. For those who don’t want to bother, it basically says he had his best season start ever then fell to pertussis before finishing the final month with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. Joe Jordan says his stuff was actually better in 2013 than in 2012.
    http://articles.philly.com/2013-09-09/sports/41876050_1_jesse-biddle-plantar-fasciitis-remainder

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    1. I’ve heard about Biddle’s physical problems and these issues combined with my personal impressions of his pitching on days I was at the park lead me to believe that his upside is still huge. I think he takes massive steps forward this year and is up within a couple of months. He could easily be a 2 in the majors in a few years. He has a potentially elite curve (i saw him pitch live three times and NOBODY put that pitch in play during those games – it was extraordinary) and an above average FB. The change is also a potentially good pitch. He coukd easily overtake Franco as our best prospect by May.

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