Drafts Revisted: 2007

2007 Draft

I have debated writing draft retrospectives for a while but the question has always been, where do I begin?  I have debated going all the way back to the Jimmy Rollins draft but those drafts were incredibly thin and become rather boring after a while.  Seeing the 2007 draft as the first draft James covered for this site it seemed as good a place as any to start.  Obviously I am not going to touch on every player here, but there are some highlights at low lights a plenty in the 2007 draft.

Round 1 Pick 19 – Joe Savery – LHP – Rice

Savery at the time was the ultimate boom bust pick.  In his freshman year Savery was the top freshman in the country and one of the most dominating pitchers in college baseball.  His next two seasons were marred by injuries but when on he flashed at least three plus pitches on a workhorse frame.  The problem is the velocity never came back and the secondary stuff regressed.  By the time Savery reached AAA he was little more than a minor league innings eater.  Savery then spent a year trying to hit, before he returned the mound with renewed velocity and a usable slider.  Since then Savery has started to salvage and put together a career as a fringe LH reliever.  2014 Outlook: LHV and Philly

Round 1s Pick 37 – Travis d’Arnaud – C – HS

D’Arnaud came out of HS as a solid catcher with questions about how his bat would play through the minors.  D’Arnaud did hit and quickly established himself as one of the top catching prospects in the minor leagues.  D’Arnaud puts together a collection of average to plus tools, but does not have an elite tool.  The Phillies then shipped him to Toronto for Roy Halladay, in Toronto D’Arnaud continued to establish himself, but injuries kept him from making the majors.  Last offseason the Blue Jays sent him as part of a package to the Mets for RA Dickey.  LAte in 2013 Travis finally reached the majors as the Mets catcher of the present.  2014 Outlook: Mets starting catcher

Round 2 Pick 19 – Travis Mattair – 3B – HS

Mattair was a raw 3B with some ability when the Phillies drafted him.  He showed great defensive abilities, but he just did not hit in two years in Lakewood.  He then took a year off to pursue playing college basketball in 2010 before returning to the Phillies in 2011 where he once again struggled.  Mattair has since caught on with Reds where he has shown enough potential to possibly get a cup of coffee in the majors.  2014 Outlook: Reds org

Round 3 Pick 13 – Brandon Workman – RHP – HS

The Phillies failed to sign Workman and he went to Texas for three years before being drafted by the Red Sox.  He might make it as a back end starter but the profile works better as a potential late inning reliever. 2014 Outlook: Red Sox bullpen

Round 3 Pick 19 – Matthew Spencer – OF – Arizona St

Spencer had a great first two years at North Carolina but he fell quickly in his junior year, even so the Phillies liked the hit tool and power potential.  He showed some good poential before being shipped to Oakland in the Blanton trade in 2008.  He then spent some time putting up decent numbers across multiple levels, but never good enough to give himself a shot.  In 2011 he moved to the mound for the Cubs, but he was out of baseball by 2013.  2014 Outlook: Out of baseball

Round 4 Pick 19 – Tyler Mach – 2B – Oklahoma St

Mach showed up and mashed in the NYPL in his first season.  However, he called baseball quits before the 2008 season.  2014 Outlook: Out of baseball

Round 5 Pick 19 – Michael Taylor – OF – Stanford

Taylor rose quickly through the Phillies system on the back of what looked like a good hit tool and blossoming power.  He peaked as the #29 prospect in baseball after the 2009 season, and during that offseason he was part of the roy Halladay trade, ultimately ending up in Oakland.  He has preceeded to hit well, but not great in AAA, and hit poorly in the big leagues.  He still shows solid tools across the board. 2014 Outlook: Out of minor league options in an Oakland org not short on OFers.

Round 6 Pick 19 – Matt Rizzotti – 1B – Manhattan College

Matt Rizzotti was an above average bat only college first baseman, unfortunately those players rarely make the major leagues.  Rizzotti made tons of contact, but he never showed enough power to man 1B.  After inciting some fanaticism in Philly he ultimately ended up in Minnesota, where his career petered out after 2012.  2014 Outlook: Out of baseball

Round 7 Pick 19 – Tyson Brummett – RHP – UCLA

As a senior sign Brummett served as an org arm for the Phillies, easily transitioning between the rotation and bullpen.  His hard work was rewarded with 0.2 innings to end the Phillies 2012 season.  He was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays where he went back to being an org arm.  2014 Outlook: Minor league org arm

Round 11 Pick 19 – Justin De Fratus – RHP – Ventura College

De Fratus started his career in the rotation but the understanding was that his ultimate position was in the bullpen.  His calling card has been control to go with a fastball and slider than can be plus.  His 2012 was derailed by injuries but he has potential to be a very useful bullpen arm for a good team.  2014 Outlook: Phillies bullpen

Round 22 Pick 19 – Jiwan James – RHP/OF – HS

James wanted to be a pitcher, which caused him to drop in the draft.  The Phillies honored his request, but an injury in early 2008 ended his pitching career.  James showed good potential at the plate and in the field.  His defense in center field is near elite, but he is still raw at the plate.  Injuries slowed him in 2012 and 2013, but he may have some backup potential in the majors.  2014 Outlook: Phillies org

Round 30 Pick 19 – Jacob Diekman – LHP – Cloud County CC

Diekman started his time in the org as a starting pitcher, but he struggled in the role.  In 2009 the Phillies moved him to the bullpen and dropped his arm slot to try and turn him into a LOOGY.  He took off in the new role as his fastball actually ticked up each year.   His fastball played up even more in the majors in 2013 where he showed a true 70 grade fastball froma low sidearm with long arms.  Diekman is devastating against LHBs, and when he can control his pitches he can dominate RHBs.  2014 Outlook: Phillies bullpen

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

23 thoughts on “Drafts Revisted: 2007”

  1. One thing I like to do is take a look at the players who were drafted soon after the Phillies pick.
    My general take is to look at the folks taken in the 10 or so picks right after the Phillies pick, but in some cases, I highlight some players that were taken before the next Phillies pick..

    First Round: Was Savery; could have been Porcello
    1st Supplemental: Was DeAround, could have been Josh Donaldson (or, if you want into the first half of the second round, you could have had G. Stanton, Jordan Zimmerman, or Freddie Freeman)
    Second Round: Was Mattair; could have been no one of significance (or, J. Lucroy in the early part of the 3rd)
    3rd Round: was Spencer, could have been Matt Harvey (although, he did not sign with the Angels)
    4th round: was Mach, could have been no one of significance
    5th: Michael Taylor, could have been Nate Jones

    In hindsight, wow nice would it have been to have selected a Stanton or Zimmerman? that said, many other teams passed on them as well.

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      1. Can we make a trade for Michael Taylor? I don’t know what happened to him in Oakland but he did very well in Lehigh Valley and Reading and would be interested in bringing him back if possible.

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        1. If he doesn’t make the A’s out of spring training he is going to be on waivers and I strongly endorse trading for him. I would certainly prefer him to JMJ on the major league club

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          1. Matt, if the Phillies can make that trade I will volunteer to drive JMJ to Philadelphia International Airport. I agree with you in that JMJ is expendable due to Darin Ruf’s presence.

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          2. Here here. You’d be surprised how many serviceable minor leaguers stall a little bit in AAA for several years while flashing multiple tools. I’d love the Phillies to reacquire Michael Taylor – I think there’s still some upside there and he has more upside than JMJ. Let’s hope it happens.

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            1. I meant to say serviceable major leaguers. A lot of guys with tools stall out in AAA for a few years and then take a big step forward in the majors. Taylor has a profile similar to theirs although the lack of power is puzzling given his original trajectory and physical abilities.

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    2. To be fair, literally everyone with a 1st round pick passed on Stanton and Zimmerman at least once.

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    3. ouch, and that dam hindsight, well done on the write up , I too contemplate what could have been in drafts but nobody can predict all of these things , heck Stanton might have gone first if we could do redo

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    4. You should have kept on going with it . In the 6th round, immediately selected after the Rizzotti pick- Anthony Rizzo. A promising High School player passed over for a veteran College Hitter with good College Hitting Stats. I blame it on the “MoneyBall” Crowd.

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  2. And here I thought this was my suggestion put to work however as you stated above, you’ve always wanted to take a look back. Always interesting.

    ps if you see Eric D (with the last name) pop up on your twitter, it’s because I decided to follow you. Its always a little weird trying to put a face to the writing on here.

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  3. I am curious what scouts said about Stanton at the time of the Draft? Where they not of first round caliber. Obviously scouting isn’t a proven science for a lot of players.

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    1. He had severe contact issues, and was going to usc to play both fb and baseball. Actually sounds like a phillies type, shucks!

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    2. Here is the BA report at the time:

      One of the top athletes in the draft class, Stanton was a three-sport star at Notre Dame Academy and widely regarded as the school’s best such athlete since former big league outfielder Jorge Piedra. Stanton is considerably bigger than Piedra and was recruited by Southern California as a wide receiver/defensive back, as well as for his power-hitting ability. While UNLV offered Stanton a football scholarship and a chance to walk on to play baseball, USC wants him on a baseball ride, with a chance to walk on in football. For pro scouts, projection is the operative word with the raw Stanton. He was overmatched against most of the top arms he saw last summer in showcases, though he has shown improvement in pitch recognition. Stanton has a big swing with resulting big power thanks to leverage and bat speed. He profiles as a corner outfielder with an average arm that could be suited to right field with more polish. He’s a fringe-average runner under way.

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      1. … Maybe we should blame Stanton for our signings of people like LGJ and Cozens. (Not to say I’m displeased with Cozens)

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        1. I was very pleased with what I saw from Cozens. Saw him in many games this past season. Not so pleased with Greene’s development.

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    3. I am really intrigued by the scouting of baseball players, and how it compares to other sports.

      Take football. If you are an NFL scout and are prepping for the draft, with a small number of exceptions, your pool of players will come from one of 130 team (or however many FCS teams there are), and the majority from one of 50 or so teams. These players are 21 or 22 years old (i.e. mostly developed), and have played against other similarly talented players for 3 or 4 (or sometimes 5) years. You then have the combine and all star games after the bowls, allowing you to further view / compare the players. And, with football, there are 100 different measurables that they take note of. While there is certainly a large amount of error, a football scout can see how player X did against a similarly skilled player Y.

      Baseball is completely different. You have 18 year old high-school players who are in the draft, from all over the country / (and some other countries). Some of them played in competitive high-school leagues. However, many of the high-schoolers outside the sunbelt are rarely seeing a 90MPH fastball, if ever. This leads to a high level of subjective analysis (i.e. I THINK blah blah will be able to hit a 94 MPH fastball that is up and in, even though 90% of his at bats were against pitchers who could not break 80). You then need to factor in physical estimates on what the player will look like when he is 24. The showcase events (i.e. perfectgames of the world) are becoming more prevalent, but they still cater to a small-ish subset of the players.

      Then, throw in the college evaluations… This vast pool of players / competition / age ranges / etc helps lead to 24 teams passing on Mike Trout. If he is from CA or Texas or Florida, he is top 5 (as he would have had less uncertainty).

      A bit of a rambling / lengthy post – I apologize for that.

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      1. In my opinion if you are good, no matter where you play you’ll get seen. For example I played (now coach) in central jersey, I’ve played with several players who got drafted (Steve Garrison, Matt Sweeney (phillies), Mike Rogers, Kyle Davis, Matt Perks, Eric Young, Chris Neylan) and have coached against a lot as well (Rob Kaminsky, Kevin Bradley, James Pugliese, Mike Trout) obviously some are known names, some are not but with all of them scouts (college and professionals) were at all of the games they played in. I did sometimes wonder if some of these guys played down south would they have been even better however most traveled in the fall/winter times playing baseball pretty much all year round.

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  4. Looking back just a few years, we can now realize how a few good draft choices concentrated in a 2-3 years can form a solid core of a team which in our case came about with Rollins, Utley, Howard and Hamels. That kind of success in a short time seems rare to me.

    Reading the above analysis comparing FB w BB in drafting choices seems to suggest that the longer time a player shows his skills or lack of same, the better an evaluation would be. Which makes sense to me.

    So…I’m led to favor mainly college players as draft choices supplemented by HS guys…particularly when a team needs help ASAP as the Phils do w their aging team. Of course, when the evaluation is skewed because of GREAT/EXTRAORDINARY skills in a HS player, he should be takes as in Crawford with shortstop very needed by the big club. The NEED dictated his choice.

    In ’14, our NEED is for pitching, and the gang of prospects in ’14 seems ripe with juicy mound prospects. Hoping for a mound stud in June ’14.

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