(Note – as I typed this, the Phillies signed Marlon Byrd. I’m not changing it. I don’t even acknowledge Marlon Byrd.)
So because all of you were clamoring for it, (I’m sure you were in secret), I’ll float my off-season plan here.
First, and foremost – Break the bank for Masahiro Tanaka, (Amaro seemed to nod in that direction yesterday, but of course it may have just been general talk about Japanese players and not a nod toward Tanaka himself). I know some of this will come down to budget, but any posting fee would be somewhat mitigated by merch sales and who knows how much mitigated by TV deal leverage. Plus I bet Morimoto names a dish after Amaro if he signs Tanaka – maybe his “Yasai Ramen” could become the “NiceSign Ruben”. I would eat that.
Next, for the OF – play a platoon of Darin Ruf and Kelly Dugan or Tyson Gillies (did I just type that?) in LF in 2014 with Revere and Brown. Four days a week your OF defense is either acceptable, (Dugan), or excellent, (Gillies), and three days a week you have a big RH bat in the lineup.
Since we’re not paying for an outfielder, re-sign Carlos Ruiz, and have a bench of Galvis, Hernandez and Frandsen, Rupp or Kratz (I think you know which I would prefer), and sign whatever lefty “power” bat you can to take the last spot, no matter the position. Your other three bench guys cover every position on the field, so you’re all set. Non-tender JMJ, of course. I mean, you have to, right? Right?
And to bolster the bullpen? Don’t. Just don’t. There’s three good arms in Papelbon, (does he still count as good?), Bastardo and Diekman, one fairly solid arm in DeFratus, plus all kinds of wildcards like Aumont, Rosenberg, Giles, Mike Adams, Garcia, and Martin, and some depth in Stutes and Savery if they aren’t waived and sign elsewhere, and as Matt just pointed out, possibly Rob Rasmussen and Seth Rosin. You can probably make a bullpen out of that group, especially if three of your starters go long innings, like Lee, Hamels and Tanaka likely would.
There you go, World F$&*^%g Series Champions again. You’re welcome. And come to think of it, I was the GM, not Amaro. So Chef Morimoto, you can rename the “Seafood Toban Yaki” the “Seafood Brad in DC”. Also, it’s no longer called “King Crab”, it’s “King Brad”. I’m delicious with citrus butter.
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
Byrd contract not horrible. 8 mill a year for a power hitting righty outfielder. Can be flipped for a prospect mid season. No draft pick given up.
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I don’t think you can call a 36 year old with only two seasons with more than 12 HR a power hitter.
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He will hit for 15-20 homeruns im sure. Besides Hart and Cruz who would be more expensive and worse in the outfield, there isnt many options.
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By far the indefensible thing is that it is a two year deal. That means no matter what they will not eat the contract. This FO seems incapable of learning from past mistakes.
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Worse, it has a third vesting year that I believe is something like 1,100 at bats between the two seasons or 600 AB in 2015.
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I can’t tell anymore what Amaro is thinking. The deal isn’t terrible, I guess, because he’s not paying $15 to $20 mil for an old outfielder before, maybe, some good to decent prospect is ready. And he didn’t give away anything either. But is Byrd so much of an upgrade over Ruf? I’m not even a Ruf fan, but I still don’t think Byrd is, what, $7+ mil a year better than Ruf. Is his defense and speed still half decent? What an outfield… Brown, Revere, and Byrd.
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Byrd hits over .320 vs LH and has a better glove.
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Really? You are going to cherry pick the career year of a 36 year old in less than 200 PA? The Phillies will be lucky to get his career .291 vs LHP.
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I am like many on here – meh. However, I think I would prefer a combination of Ruf and the 7.5MM in savings (or 15 over 2 years) over an aging Bryd. I figure you could parlay the 7.5MMin savings for a quality reliever, (or allow you to pursue a higher quality #4 pitcher).
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.291 career vs LHP doesn’t sound that bad.
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the corner outfielders could be decent, but revere has a terrible arm in center.
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Wtf?!? Marlon Byrd?!? What is RAJ doing? He’s 36 years old and IMO is nothing but a platoon player, yes he had a decent year last year but he sure isn’t the guy I wanted to see them get. I was hoping he would trade for an OFer (i had dreams of a healthy Matt Kemp in the line up getting back to the MVP type player he was and still could be) or I’d actually would have rather had Nelson Cruz over Byrd. I feel like Cruz would have been a good signing at somewhere like 3yrs 33m or 2yrs 24m. His PED suspension (hes still never failed a test right?) was going to hurt his contract like it did Melky which would have been good, giving up a 2nd round pick wouldn’t have been ideal but Cruz would have mashed in CBP between Utley and Howard or Howard and Brown, 30plus HRs wouldn’t have been out of th question. I dunno but Byrd makes this team even older (36-37yrs old for 2014 and finishing the contract at 39) then it already is and a HORRIBLE signing.
Wasn’t a fan of dealing Revere but now that they signed Marlon F’n Byrd I’d be all for moving Revere to get another powerful OF bat. I’m gonna go out my service weapon in my mouth now and pull the trigger . . . Kill me now RAJ, kill me now.
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Eric, I guess you don’t value keeping a top 40 pick in next years draft. Also, Nelson Cruz seems to want to stay in Texas, gets hurt often and we can’t use him as a DH as Texas did. RAJ just can’t win as if does sign a player with a Qualifying Offer we lose a top 50 pick and if he signs a player with a Qualifying Offer he will lose the 2nd round pick and over one millin dollars in the next draft pool.
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Cruz DH’ed only 25x over the past 4 years. Also last year he would have played in 150 plus games if not for the PED suspension, played in 159 games in 2012 and 124 in 2011 so he’s played in a good amount of games over the past 3 years. Only part of your response that was right was that they would lose their 2nd round pick.
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Well one thing we don’t know is how much the PEDS helped Cruz and Byrd is a better fielder than Cruz. I know Byrd does not have Cruz’s power but his fielding compensates partially and I want the Phillies to keep their 2nd round pick unless they sign Jacoby Ellsbury or Robinson Cano. Lastly, Texas does want to keep Cruz and that has been mentioned in several reports. Remember Jimmy Rollins was a 2nd round pick so there is possible great value in keeping that pick.
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Oh your right, there’s def HUGE value in a 2nd round pick, I def agree w that but more often then not it doesn’t pan out like with most prospects. With Cruz you know what you’ll get. I want to win next year and with a line up that has Cruz between Howard/Utley or Howard/Brown they would have a better chance of winning then w Byrd.
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Nice work Brad. I only say if you can add a single high end BP arm on a reasonable deal those are always good investments because of the trade option at the deadline.
I would look to trade a Bastardo and Aumont to AZ for Adam Eaton add KK if needed. Not likely they would take it but I would like to make the offer and hear what they had to say.
Go all out on SP. If that means Tanaka or Garza I’m in but upgrade plenty behind Lee/Hamels.
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If Marlon Byrd, a 36 year old whose OPS. in the last 4 seasons has been .775/.719/,488/.847, is the answer I don’t understand the question. I have a feeling that it is the FO that doesn’t understand the dangers of signing old guys coming of career years.
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They could sign middle aged guys coming off career years. Unfortunately, they cost ~$18 mil per year for 5-6 years as well as a draft pick.
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Let’s see an established reliever, a high unfulfilled potential reliever, and an established starter for a Left-Handed hitting Center fielder who is not established and have seen nothing that says he will be a power hitter, so, to me, just looked like the less experienced version of Ben Revere?
I don’t like that proposal. I think the possibility of them considering that is remote, I hope.
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meant as a reply to the trade for Adam Eaton thing.
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Sure but take a deeper dive into Adam Eaton not withstanding last season. His OBP is insane and his OPS is substantially better than Revere’s.
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It’s a moot point: no Phillies GM, not even Amaro, would be so foolish as to acquire another player named Adam Eaton.
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except Ed Wade
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The situation was bad enough before Wade came back. Is there anyone here who would not admit that for whatever reason, it certainly has gotten worse since he is returned.
BTW why would rehire Wade ?????
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Well it appears we won’t be going crazy spending money at least. Still Marlon Byrd is unlikely to give too much. Assuming he is worth about 2 war per season the contract will pay itself. Still he doesn’t have a whole lot of upside. Corner OF is a place where you could add a lot of offense, albeit at probably a very high price. I suppose if the Phillies were never serious about hitting the big names in the OF hard it’s best to get someone else before that market plays out.
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Did anyone else realize that he’ll be the oldest regular position player on the team next year? Another big WTF
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Torii Hunter at 37 signed a 2 year $26 deal so I would say we got Hunter a year later for $10M less.
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I only hope he puts up Torri Hunters 36 and 37 yr old season numbers.
If they upgrade center then this isn’t a TERRIBLE move but if they don’t then I don’t get the move.
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I don’t think it’s terrible move in any scenario. We hold the 7th pick in the draft. We have a kid by the name of Asche, a kid named Franco, a kid named Crawford.
If some young player emerges its not like Byrd is going to block him. I agree we need a player like Kemp, a player like Adam Jones but those types don’t grow on trees and don’t come cheap.
Let’s evaluate/grade the off season when its complete.
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That’s where I’m at. Byrd upgrades the roster on a reasonable contract which makes it a good signing. But I’ll be disappointed if they don’t make another OF acquisition.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/phillies-sign-marlon-byrd-uncertainty/
Pretty good assessment of the trade above. In a vacuum, it’s not a horrible signing, but the Phillies do not operate in a vacuum. Among Ruben Amaro’s biggest problems is that he has serious “trouble with the [aging] curve” – the Phillies always sign a guy one or two contracts too late, when the player is still expensive but declining quickly. The biggest problem is that Amaro is just dreadful at “making due” with below market acquisitions. His foolish “risk aversion” and desire to get “an established player” means the team overpays for guys who have a name or are just coming off a good season but are generally not worth the money. The biggest problem with this strategy, is that there is more than nominal value being directed at a player who is projected to be average, thereby reducing other free agent money available to the team. Ask yourself this – is this team likely to be cured by average players? I don’t think so, unless the player was dirt cheap and the money was directed at another player who would be well above average.
Honestly, Amaro is so incompetent it’s embarassing.
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Quote from article above – well put:
“It’s not the worst move the Phillies could have made. It’s better than signing Nelson Cruz. Barring some pretty great moves to fill out the rest of their roster, though, it’s probably going to push them back towards mediocrity rather than making any real substantial impact on their franchise. If the Phillies are all-in on winning in 2014, then Marlon Byrd as their big off-season acquisition probably isn’t enough. If they’re in transition and building more towards the future, well, a 36 year old doesn’t really do much for them. Instead, this looks like a move that will keep them squarely in between, spinning their wheels in the land of not winning now and not winning in the future.”
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I worry about being strategically in the middle also. But I do think the move fits squarely into a rebuild without giving up any prospects strategy. I.E. not trying to win next year. It is not as if we have any credible young OFs that are worth playing and the dollar figure is not enough to kill us if Byrd regresses. I can understand the move without liking it, as long as they continue the rebuilding strategy.
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“Rebuild” is being thrown about very loosely here. This is not rebuild. Rebuild requires actually acquiring additional pieces for the future — by signing them, by trading vets for them. It is not sitting around backing-and-filling to try to look respectable and getting badly embarrassed anyway, while waiting for a rather meager crop of minor leaguers work their way up the system. This is the middle road that has Lee and Utley and Papelbon and perhaps even Hamels rust away to nothing on losing teams, so that management can try to save face. And when those guys have aged out or moved on, we are left with… It is a futile non-strategy, created by a management too gutless to actually implement a strategy and take the PR ding that might be involved or to actually spend $$$ to try to win with the remnants of the core. Really… either harvest their value or bring in enough talent to have a chance of winning with them. The middle ground is futile. The farm simply doesn’t have enough talent on the way up that we can shuffle around in place until the cavalry arrives.
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Rebuild can also mean waiting till your prospects are ready. The middle ground did work out pretty well for the Red Sox last year. Maybe they should have traded Lee and not re-signed Hamels and Utley. Now that they have though, a complete rebuild is not really possible. Thus you are left with the middle ground strategy of trying to field a respectable team while keeping your prospects for the future.
Seen by itself this was probably not a good move. But it was predicated by the other moves and might actually be a sign that Amaro understands the current state of the club, which of course he created.
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I think you see this as I do. In a rebuilding scenario Byrd is a stopgap until outfielders in the farm system mature. I’m looking at Dugan, 22 yo, AA last season, Perkins and Altherr, both 22, Clearwater last season. (I heard good reports on Perkins from friends who were at AFL.) Then there’s Dylan Cozens, in Williamsport last season, a legitimate right-hand, power-hitting right fielder. If management plays it right the Phillies can be competitive again in 2016.
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Looks to me like Cozens both bats Left and Throws with the Left Hand. And 2016 , for him, might be a rush. Yeah, if Dugan, Altherr , and Perkins all can make to the MLB, they can be out of a lot of blockage in two years. Not to mention: Hewitt , Collier, Jiwan James, Gillies, L. Castro, and maybe a couple of lesser lights who might be at Reading or above in the upcoming season. Then in a couple of years, I figure they have maybe Hamels and a year and a wake-up of Howard and they can re-shape the team in their image (!) The question might be: How good are the players coming along vis-a-vis other teams, and what will be the state of other teams at this point.
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Not one of these players is even a sure fire major leaguer at this point (and many will never be major leaguers), no less a starter, no less an above average starter. A few of them have promise and if they turn out to be good that would be wonderful but they are not the type of players that you can plan around at this point. Just a bunch of lottery tickets.
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the phillies are not in position to make legitimate run anyway. Its low risk signing that gives them slightly better glove and a bat that doesn’t hurt them. They have far bigger issues like where is power going to come from at 1B and 3B.
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We should probably add Cashman to that list nobody does aging curve better than he does and knock down Dombrowski a few pegs for the Fielder deal 2 years ago and the Hunter deal from last year. While we are at let’s get Daniels for pinning his hopes on Berkman and Pierzynski and the ridiculous number he handed out to Andrus with both Profar and Kinsler on the roster. How about Anthopoulos and his brilliance to trade Farrell to an in division rival, pick up Dickey, Buerle, Reyes…
Ned Colletti is looking pretty genius with the Kemp deal. Wren is smelling like roses with BJ and Uggla and let’s not forget the platinum fellow Friedman for his uncanny ability to lose in the playoffs each and every year but he’ll swing a nice deal for Price I’m sure. By the way didn’t he pick up Delmon Young after we dropped him?
Give me a break with your Amaro nonsense catch.
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DMAR…not to burst your bubble…but Ruben is also looking at AJ Pierzynski to replace Chooch, if Chooch goes elsewhere.
Ruben is a gift that just keeps on giving!
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Like the Jelly of the Month club. Got it…
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Well said DMAR.
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Nice post DMAR as you made several good points.
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Okay DMAR, other GMs make bad moves. Doesn’t prove much IMO. And I tend to agree that the Byrd signing in particular is a bad platform for Amaro bashing (aside to a small extent for the vesting third year, an Amaro tendency which isn’t a huge deal but still a consistent problem). The big picture is what counts.
On that point, I don’t have time for an in depth post. Allow me one question and one not-entirely-fleshed out argument:
(1) The question: what’s the POSITIVE case for Amaro? Please don’t say the team’s performance in his first three years. With the player (major league and minor league) that were in the organization when he was hired, plus organizational resources (financial as well as development and scouting personnel), anything less would have been a failure.
(2) A good organization with financial resources should NEVER go through the down period that the Phillies are now going through. Never. 2 years at .500 and lower is forgivable (but see below). But 2 years, PLUS an organization which is as talent bereft as the Phillies are now, is inexcusable. Absent a risky and counter productive foray into a series of “win now” moves, the team is looking at AT LEAST 2 more seasons of mediocrity.
Look at the following organizations for a comparison:
(a) Boston – ONE down year in the last 12.
(b) Tampa Bay- one arguable down year in the last 6, and none at .500 or lower. Amazing considering their financial resources.
(c) St. Louis – ONE sub .500 season in the past 14 years. Yeah, a number of other sub 90 wins seasons, but in one of them they won the WS. Financial resources much more limited that the Phillies, albeit not to the same extent as TB.
(d) Texas – no sub .500 seasons in the past 5 years.
That’s a total of 2 .500 or lower seasons in 37 team/years for those teams. Amaro will likely exceed that in 2014 in his 6th season, after inheriting a WS champion.
Bottom line for me: I think reasonable people can differ on this to some extent. Maybe Amaro isn’t as bad as I think. But it seems to me that the best possible spin one could put on him is that he’s a mediocre GM. He’s not a top 10 GM, and DEFINITELY not a top 5 GM.
And mediocre is not good enough.
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“A good organization with financial resources should NEVER go through the down period that the Phillies are now going through.”
Well yeah, not if you define a good organization as one that hasn’t lost much recently as you seem to do.
I do agree with you though that Ruben Amaro is mediocre at best
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Ruben is a GM who appears to be making moves in desperation for a 2014 revival.
If the team finishes out of the playoffs, or worst yet, last or next to last in the division, he may be relieved of his duties.
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Larry you know I love you but this is so slanted towards your own bias. Be honest you kneel at the alter of Bill James so anyone who remotely disputes or down plays the amount of weight metrics should play in the managing of a MLB franchise is not a good GM. Is it your opinion he gets 0 credit for the 09 WS appearance, 0 Credit for following that up with a season where they won the most games in baseball followed by another playoff appearance followed by a fluke injury to arguably the ace of his pitching staff.
For starters what metrics would you even use to rank GM’s. Is it record but you don’t get credit for the part of the record that came right after the prior GM? Reasonable people would agree determining who is and who isn’t a top 5 GM is subjective no? Or that its a product of a great deal of luck and you can make all the right moves on paper but the elements of humans and injuries can lay all of that to waste.
Could one argue it is a tougher job to take over as GM the year after winning the WS?
Even you have to admit the variables are many and you should be willing to admit there are many moves GM’s are pushed to make that go against their own better instincts. We’ve been through this before few if any of these GM’s have complete autonomy. And more often than we know owners and their ego’s and their emotions drive decisions that otherwise should not be made.
Will you acknowledge that he inherited a manager who he had a philosophical difference with but was stuck with because who fires a manager after he just won you a WS? Would a good GM go public with that type of thing? I’m just asking.
I think I might pay to see your ranking of the current GM’s or maybe you could just give us those who are behind Amaro.
You are a very intelligent guy Larry I know that but you to are also a master of spin and a master of cherry picking anecdotal bullet points to bolster your bias and any man with integrity would have to admit that you’re making a subjective judgment with very limited knowledge and transparency into all the discussions that went on to decide how they wanted to operate coming off a WS win.
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You Front Office shill.
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DMAR, all the questions that you raise are why I say reasonable minds may differ … to the extent that I COULD be wrong, and that he may be mediocre rather than terrible. (I could write a page on specific disagreements on you counter arguments, but that’s a separate topic & I’m not inclined to waste time going there.)
But what’s the positive case for him being better than mediocre? You still haven’t made it. And you talk about bad luck – but, even putting advanced metrics aside (and my post that you responded to didn’t bring advanced metrics into play at all), the decline of this team was predictable, and predicted. The team hasn’t, on the whole, been unlucky over the past couple of years. Yet a perennial contender now has a roster – combined major and minor leagues – that probably, looking not just at next year but the next few years, has less talent (in terms of future value) that 20 major league organizations. I’m being generous. Despite one of the highest payrolls in the league.
Overall, far from being slanted, I’m bending over backwards to be kind to Amaro.. As a fan, I tend to react with my heart rather than my head. My heart tells me that maybe the Phillies will return to contention by 2016. My head tells me that they won’t return to contention until 5 years after Amaro is gone. My head tells me that Amaro’s destruction of the franchise is virtually without precedent in modern baseball history.
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In the interest of accuracy, no one could have foreseen Doc’s precipitous downfall in 2012. That one factor alone may have made the difference between the Phils’ being a .500 club and their being a WC (Of course, Amaro could have done a much better job at finding a fill-in for Howard and picked up a couple more wins in 2012.).
Before I give some praise to Amaro, I should make clear that I don’t like him as a GM either, but the Phils’ real problem is with the front office as a whole. Unless and until the team is run by 21st-century people, we will continue to have mediocre or worse GMs after Amaro is gone (How’s that for optimism!).
Looking at Amaro’s tenure as a whole, I think he deserves praise for the Phils’ making the transition between 2009-2011 from an offensive juggernaut to a pitching-dominant team. Utley, Howard and Rollins were showing signs of decline, and the Phils timed the transition perfectly.
Unfortunately, the team fell apart when Halladay went down, and Amaro had no Plan B.
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No one predicted Halladay in particular, but players in his age range are always risks for that that kind of decline, injury aided or not. And starting pitchers are a higher risk for injury (an arguable reason why putting so much of the payroll into pitching was an error).
But int he larger sense, a team whose best players are in their early to mid thirties can be predicted to decline. And they did. One could argue I suppose that, in the aggregate, the decline was larger/faster than could have been predicted. But I’m not even sure that’t true. Take into account (a) older players who rebounded or failed to decline (Rollins, Ruiz in 2012, Lee, Utley in 2013), and (b) predictably high risk players (Howard especially), and I don’t know that the team has even been that unlucky. Maybe a little.
If you want to talk “big picture,” I would say that these are the main problems:
(1) The Howard contract (direct and indirect effects);
(2) Failure to rebuild the outfield.
(3) Poor talent judgment generally on position players.
(4) One year too late in abandoning “win now” moves (and the two big ones during that year were also bad even on their own terms, Pence and Papelbon).
(5) Poor job of building a bullpen (the combination of high salaries and low productivity is pretty bad).
Allentown below talks about different GMs for different stages – this ties in – most of those problems are more of an issue when rebuilding as opposed to managing an established veteran contender.
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RAJ would be a horrible Fantasy Baseball GM
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Catch, who should he have signed instead, and how is this an overpay? An Ibanez type contract would have been a typical Amaro move and an overpay. But it’s only 2/16.
You don’t get decent players on the right side of the aging curve for 2/16.
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Larry, I hear you and it’s a fair point. I said in isolation this is not a bad move nor an overpay (I’ve been over the WAR stats and he’s likely to produce the value of the contract and perhaps exceed it). The problem is that there are very few opportunities/spots to really upgrade the team. Corner outfield is one of those spots. So unless they get Choo or Ellsbury to play centerfield, this move just kicks the can a little farther down the road. Probably better than their current options but on the whole, just more time biding.
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“Trade [or sign] a player a year too early rather than a year too late.” –Branch Rickey
RAJ will never understand this.
I’m not a RAJ hater, though this deal has been bananas. Just terrible.
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Looks like you doctored the quote, because the only players (who were other than raw rookies just starting out) were players that the team that signed them originally simply released because they did not believe they could play a lick. (See; Reserve Clause) If he would have said something like Trade or Release a year early, why release a year early, release them right on time. Also, economic considerations in those days were dissimilar because all players made basically the same, which was, basically, next to nothing. Branch Rickey, also, never had immovable contracts, players who could not be traded, or players who could not be released without major financial penalties. So, I say, Branch Rickey is about as relevant on here as Rickey Branch.
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Of course I added it; that’s why I put it in brackets. Just assumed everyone knew the quote, though since I was more commenting on RAJ’s predilection to sign players too late rather than too young, I made the addition.
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Okay, and how would you go about signing a player too young in the current version of Free Agency. There are few players younger than 30 in this offseason’s Free Agency, and , I think the most notable is Delmon Young. If a player is now more than a year or two under 30 and worth signing, their original team is more than likely to extend them before they reach Free Agency. So, in Branch Rickey’s day they could make trades purely for baseball reasons with minor economic repercussions, and the free agency of the day was purely for players who had already been released by their original teams due to lack of playing ability , except , for an occasional, very rare, mistake. In today’s Free Agency you have to sign among the players who have met the requirements for Free Agency which usually puts them at or above 30, So there are not going to be any too early FA signings. And, if you take the example of Byrd, every year of age and level of ability more to the preference of some must be paid for, and usually for premium prices. So, signing them too early doesn’t exist, and signing them too late fits into the rules of Free Agency. When the minor leagues don’t produce the proper replacements, you are left with Free Agency and the rules of Free Agency.
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This is not an argument for paying Byrd $16 mill, so much as it is an argument against FA signings, other than to get what you need to push your team over the top — a situation the Phillies most definitely do not find themselves in. What did all the $millions to the Youngs, Adams, Durbin, and Lannan buy us that we wouldn’t have achieved at far less cost wiith an audition of AAAA talent? There also is a difference in risk for a 36 year old and a 32 year old. But, I think the answer for a team that wants to rebuild is to seek younger talent. A guy like MAG is the right direction. So is Tanaka. Why do we have $1 million of unspent international bonus allocation, and yet are spending $16 mill on Byrd? It really is senseless patch and fill as a PR fig leaf and a waste of money which could be productively put to younger talent. Signing Byrd means not playing Ruf. I’d rather go with Ruf for the year and find out what we actually have in Ruf.
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Byrd is a reasonable pick up with only a two year contract. You guys don’t realize how expensive how free agents are. This is certainly not the last move they’re making. Byrd had a career year last year that I don’t expect him to repeat, especially at 36 but he’s usually been a solid player during his career with a decent glove and decent arm and he’s better than Mayberry. Giving up the 2nd rd pick for a guy like Cruz or Granderson, both marginal defensively at best, always bothered me but at the same time, Byrd doesn’t add as much to their offense. My hunch was that RAJ was going to try and add older players who would only command short term contracts and Byrd fits that definition. There are some starting and relievers pitchers that fit that mold also, as does Chooch. I still say that the Phils need to go for it now or else trade Lee and get something for him while he’s still an ace. Let’s hope Byrd is not THE move of the offseason.
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We’re a minor league discussion group. To that end, we should all pull for the Phillies to not waste their 2nd round pick, especially on what’s out there this year, and not to trade away the prospects that we all follow. They should now sign one of the two starting pitchers that doesn’t come with the added cost of the pick. With the cheaper OF in tow, maybe they can afford to go after Garza now with more money. I still would like Chris Young or Rajai Davis as a 4th OF but we’ll see.
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I endorse this plan
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Bleacher Report also endorses either Young or Davis, for what that is worth.
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I believe what RAJ is trying to do here at the highest level is appropriate – he understands that the Phils need to add multiple pieces and not just one major piece, and this is the first step in that process. I admire and agree with the approach, although I’m not crazy about Byrd despite his good season last year.
As far as the OF goes, I really believe that both Revere and Ruf will be the 4th and 5th OF’s next year as the plan, and if they play well could work themselves into platoon roles or guys who play 2-3 times per week, and full time with injuries. I think one of the key points we are missing here on the Ruf side of this Byrd signing is this – if the Phils rely on Ruf to be an everyday OF next year, and Ryan Howard gets injured, who is the everyday 1B in his absence? I like the idea of having Ruf on the bench, playing for Dom Brown once a week against a tough LHP, and another 1-2 days per week at 1B when facing LHP. He is good depth, better than Mayberry, in filling that role.
The second part of that is Revere. I really believe the Phils will either upgrade to a different everyday CF, or bring in a RH guy who can play CF and either platoon or fill a bench role if Revere plays well. I still wouldn’t be shocked if the Phils make a run at a guy like Kemp to play CF, and use Revere off the bench.
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Buddy Biancalana – I agree with you 100%. Revere will be a platoon OF and play more LF than CF – assuming they put Brown back in RF where he belongs. I still think they are looking for a better fielding CF. I believe Byrd can play left or right. This is the first move of several and in no way is Ruf a regular Of. He really should be playing 1B.
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I see so much wrong with this. Brown will be in LF. They got Byrd to be the RF and he is a better RF than Brown. Ruf will be a bench bat occasional starter at 1B/LF. I have seen no indication that anyone other than Revere will be starting in CF. The got him as there CF leadoff man of the future. I do not see the Dodgers trading Kemp unless they are overwhelmed with an offer. They have shown no concern for the luxury tax ceiling. Maybe they will in the future, but not next season. Ethier is more likely to be traded than Kemp. In the end, I think, they will keep all four of their outfielders as a hedge against injury. They will have no issue with leaving Joc Pederson in AAA for a full season.
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I was curious after you mentioned Ruf facing LHP once a week for Dom and 1-2 times per week for Howard. The Phillies faced LHP starters 42 times this season, or roughly 1 in every 4 games. That’s not enough LHP only ABs to go around for Ruf.
Also, Phillies actually had a higher OPS against LHP than RHP starters last year (.704 vs. .685). It was slightly worse when you include all LHP, but still close (.694 vs .679).
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I think it’s a good signing considering the asking prices of Cruz, Beltran, etc, the guys I felt would upgrade the line up.
I’d like to see them at this point grab two relievers and a starter. Possibly another outfielder to compete with Revere for playing time (Chris Young and Franklin Gutierrez come to mind).
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The Byrd signings is sort of meh. I can see two groups who would oppose it:
(1) People who want the team to compete next year.
(2) People who want the team to “tank” next year.
For the rest of us, though, the signing, while nothing spectacular, is probably a good one. With no internal candidates, they needed to acquire a corner outfielder. Byrd is arguably the best – or at least among the best – of the essentially free talent out there. The contract will not constrain the team at all, no prospects needed to be traded, no picks lost, and it isn’t as if he’s blocking anyone (Ruf is not a regular outfielder).
Will he duplicate his 2013 performance? No. He is likely not even a major league average regular. But he’ll be an improvement on what the team was putting out there in 2013.
Now they’ll add a starting pitcher, a middle reliever, and a catcher. Depending upon who those three players end up being, the team will likely be somewhere around a .500 team next season. But without sacrificing the future.
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Kind of where I am on the deal. We were not going to tank with the TV deal being negotiated (and really, why?). But we should not give up any piece of the future to compete this year. That means sign slightly over-priced but short term and low risk players. I might have preferred Chris Young here, but I understand the move (unless they now go and blow up the rebuilding strategy).
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I mean, your premise is that he’ll revert to being what he was before his miserable 2012 and his career year in 2013. I think there’s a good chance he’ll be a lot worse than that. He’s old, he’s got the drug issues in his past, he’s still represented by the Levinsons, who seem to be up to their eyeballs in shady activity. (See Cabrera, Melky.) I’m not being all judgmental about the steroids: it’s just a risk we have to factor in, if his next positive test gets him a 100-game suspension. Then there’s the possibility that he was 1)taking drugs as a calculated risk last year in order to get himself one last big guaranteed contract and 2)stops taking them next year, so as not to put that salary in jeopardy. Then who knows what Marlon Byrd we end up with?
If they were just looking for a stopgap, why not sign someone who–like Byrd last offseason–at least represents a low-risk, high-reward proposition. Byrd seems like a case of a high-risk, low-reward gamble.
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Don’t you think a drug stipulation clause is added to a baseball contrct when a player is already a past offender?
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Drug suspensions are unpaid by definition. So it’s not a salary issue. I could care less about whether the Phillies have to pay Marlon Byrd $16 million or not. The issue is that there’s a reasonable possibility that the player they are going to sign to play right field will not be allowed to play right field for them. Add on top of that the injury risk that you have with any late-30s player, and you are looking at a high probability of low production.
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I think the most honest answer is that RAJ and the owners want to go into the winter ticket sales season trumpeting that they just signed an .850 OPS OF, with a recognizable name, who fields better than Ruf. Really, what was last year’s strategy? Sign recognizable names with something big in their past that could be pointed to in selling tickets. Look at last winter’s PR. You’d never know that both Youngs had been reduced to basically DH status, with their best years far behind them, that Adams was hurt. The Phillies have always been more comfortable marketing faded ‘names’ than kids. This is just a repeat of last season’s charade. We won’t contend and management knows that, but they gotta sell tickets.
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Well I think there’s some truth to that, but at least Byrd (as opposed to the Youngs) seems likely to produce at an above replacement level.
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David Murphy has similar concerns about how much of his performance in 2013 (and before) is drug-aided.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Do-you-believe-Marlon-Byrd.html
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I think this is Rube trying to copy Boston. Boston brings in Napoli, Victorino, Gomes, and others. I’m not a huge Byrd fan, but I am a fan of this move. 16 million is really not that much. Hopefully this signals a platoon at first with Ruf/Howard, but I wouldn’t put my money on it. I honestly see Byrd platooning some with Ruf in the outfield but maybe only 4-5 starts a week. Can bring him in for late inning defense. In 2015, I could see him platooning with Dugan or someone. Honestly, I think it’s more of a depth/piece move.
Also, as has been mentioned, who else would you overpay for? At least this is no long term commitment.
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How about AJ Pierzynski on a one year deal to replace Chooch?
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He is toxic he doesn’t play nice with others he is a me guy few of his pitchers like him. Granted I think he is misunderstood by many but I don’t see a fit. I’d rather Navarro and Rupp.
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My opinion I think Carlos wants to stay in Philly I think the Phillies want Carlos to stay in Philly. I think there is some posturing going on by both sides to create some leverage.
If I had to guess teams want to be 2/$18 on him and he wants a 3rd year. His camp may even think the AAV can be higher once everyone sees what McCann is going to get.
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Amaro is trying to get himself fired. I understand that it’s expensive for free agents but to give Byrd 16 million is insane. Amaro said he was going to try avoid doing something like this. I think Amaro is his own worst enemy.
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I read somewhere Cruz wants 5/75 which might explain Marlon B coming home to roost
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I’m sure Cruz WANTS 5 years 200m but that doesn’t mean he’s going to get it, obviously a extreme example but that’s how free agency works. Players shoot for the moon while GMs aim for the floor and meet somewhere in the middle. Plus his suspension will come into play like it did with Melky who was in line for a BIG pay day however he had to settle on (ironically) a 2yr 16m.
2011 – .305/.339/.470/.809 4.5 WAR
2012 – .346/.390/..516/.908 4.7 WAR
Putting up those numbers he could have come close to 5yrs 100m.
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I agree. Bourn wanted 5/$75 last year and waited around a long time and had to settle for much less. In Cruz’s defense his career numbers were much better than Cabrera’s.
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However plays cash in on their year prior to FA (and the year before that as well) ie Marlon Byrd. So with that being said Melky, if he wasn’t connected to PEDs would have likely signed a contract in the 70m-100m range.
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Phillies are still interested in dealing for Peter Bourjos.
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Why?
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Young, good speed, good defense, RH, can play all three OF spots…I’d approve of this (depending on what they give up of course)
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You got already a light hitting CF who atleast hits for average. Why would you want another one?
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You would probably trade Ben Revere in that scenario or maybe bench him.
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Bourjos does have more power.
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So do I.
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I homered in slow pitch softball the other night…303 to dead center. Think Revere could do that?
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Pete have a team in need of that type of power. If you reside any where near Bucks County let me know and if you are under the age of 35 even better…
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I’d rather Dexter Fowler.
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Byrd was signed to play one outfield spot now Dom brown will be moved to angels and mark trumbo will bring his power to the Phil’s. Utley will hit 3rd, trumbo 4th, finally Howard will be out of the cleanup spot and bat 5th where he belongs, Byrd will hit 6th. Now how do you like the Phil’s team…….. Can you say playoffs !!!!!!!!
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Can you say…….. good night!!!!
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Howard is not a 5th place hitter anymore either. He should be batting 6th or 7th.
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I think the Angels would want pitching…Pettiboner, maybe Kendrick. If they trade Trumbo, they’d still have Bourjos, Trout and Hamilton…and that Kole Calhoun kid who wasn’t bad in his call-up. Brown wouldn’t be their target.
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Only way I see Trumbo/Brown working is in a three team deal with someone like Arizona who needs a left handed bat and is ripe with pitchers.
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No, I can say floppo is 2014 and unmitigated disaster in 2015 and beyond. Really, you’re going to she Brown and go with Trumbo and Byrd? Yuck!
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Scenarios:
Ruben’s team finishes last in the div. in 2014 he is gone.
Ruben’s team makes the playoffs he gets extended.
Ruben’s team finishes in the middle of the pack but out of the playoffs….Monty may keep him for one more year through 2015.
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you really are like a broken record. Amaro wont be fired ,
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I do believe there are a few teams that are heavily invested in the present and may be willing to part with young assets to keep their window open. Unfortunately, right now, it seems like the Phillies are pursuing that tack (foolishly IMHO), making these rumblings incompatible, but my preference would be to capitalize on those others. The Angels and Yankees situations seem most desperate, though the Angels don’t have great prospects (Cowart, but he is a 3b), but the Yankees have some intriguing one. I would trade Pettibone or Kendrick for Kole Calhoun before Mark Trumbo. Would Dom Brown for a package centered around Mason Williams work? Other teams poised to win now but needing help, willing to add money, albeit with larger windows (i.e., not as desperate) are the Nationals and the Rangers. Could Lee get Giolito and Goodwin? Profar and Odor? Would a Mariners trade of Paxton or Hultzen for Dom Brown work?
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Even though they don’t now appear to be pursuing this approach and the proposals may be moot or premature, I anticipate 2014 being a complete disaster and them shifting course before the trade deadline. Hopefully the aforementioned players (and others) retain trade value.
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I always love it when I see Lee’s name tossed around for top prospects. He has been the centerpiece of a trade three times and the only top prospect he brought back was a Firstbaseman who has’t crested .750 OPS in four years. And Lee is now in his mid-30’s.
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Apparently there’s a third year vesting option for 2016. I knew it! Never bet the under when Ruben Amaro is involved.
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Domonic Brown + (I would hope not Franco) for Bautista… i don’t know. I’m all for selling high on Domonic Brown given his second half tail off. I’m not sure about dealing prospects though.
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Hope they keep Franco. Signing Byrd makes more sense if they make a trade and get another quality righty bat.
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I had been thinking Byrd as a right handed bat who brings SOME power and would likely bat behind Howard. Ruf should NEVER be considered for RF…EXCEPTING for those who enjoy watching triples by the other team. He is bad enough in LF.
Ruf’s role should be as a PH, a 1st baseman vs. lefty pitchers that confuse Howard, and (unfortunately) some LF.
There are no right-handed OFers anywhere near the bigs in our Pharm system. Paying for an arb-offered OFer would cost that 2nd round pick. Since the draft seems the only way to a better future considering the state of the pharm, giving up ANY early draft choice seems counter-productive.
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I thought that I was the only one who sees, how bad ruf is in the outfield. He has no speed, no arm. if he isnt your first basemen, then he is a american league dh, Does amaro have any direction. I really hope the owners put a hold on what he can do, no long term deals, and if its true he gave byrd a third year option, that is nuts.
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Amaro did mention in October that fulltime veteran players who cannot produce could be subject to a platoon. IMO, opinion that staement was directed more or less at Howard. Perhaps this is what Sandberg needs to platoon Ruf and Howard.
Bothers me that Ruben will not come out and mention a particular player but hint at it, as opposed to guys like GMs Cashman, Alderman or Daniels who mention their particular player but are very tactful in the criticism.
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As good a way as any to guesstimate what Byrd brings in 2014 is Bill James’ Hitter Projections. For Byrd the model predicts: 134G .262 / 317 / 417 for a.734 OPS with 12 HRs and a 4.42 RC27. If those numbers hold, he will have earned his contract.
I think the Phillies should try to find Ruf 300 ABs or so in 2014. Sandberg hopefully will do what CM would never have considered, give Ruf 35 to 40 starts at 1B (and maybe another 30 in the OF). BTW, James’s model predicts a 2014 for Howard of: 130G .250 / .335 / .468 for a .804 OPS with 26 HRs and a 5.39 RC27. Respectable numbers, but obviously not for a guy making $25MM / yr.
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I really hope you’re right about Ruf. I don’t buy him as an every day outfielder, but as a platoon partner for Howard and occasional corner OF fill in he has real value, as well as enhancing Howard’s value.
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Third year vesting option for Byrd – agree with most that this is something of a meh signing, though I’m a bit on the more negative side of meh. Perhaps a meh-meh is in order for me. A signing I could certainly do without. But enough about Byrd . . .
Eskin reporting that the Phils are deep into discussions with the Jays re Bautista in exchange for DBrown. That’s a very believable rumor as more than one of us here have mentioned Bautista as a possibility over the past few months.
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In reading this thread so far the signing of Byrd is mostly positive. I came here thinking that everyone would be screaming about the $8M a year for a possible steroid user who is older than God. But that’s not really the case so far. I guess this is a true prospect site because no prospects were injured, maimed, or killed is the signing of Byrd; therefore, this signing is not causing heart palpations across this site.
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I’m not pleased with it Bellman particularly after learning of the 3rd-yr option. It’s just typical RAJ to beat the market to sign what amounts to be no better than the 6th best FA outfielder available. Weird place to start a market –
Still, I’m holding my displeasure for now as Byrd makes more sense to me if he’s part of a totally revamped OF rather than a signing to fill a single need. If Bautista somehow makes it to Philly then I may actually warm up to the Byrd signing.
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Realistic and worthwhile goals for 2014:
1. Play .500 ball; and
2. Keep all top prospects and don’t lose any draft picks.
The Byrd signing is consistent with these goals.
I’d wait to the end of ST before making any BP moves. Then and throughout the season, if and when necessary, I’d pick up a cheap reliever.
My biggest remaining FA moves would be for two SPs. Garza, Josh Johnson, Haren, Hudson, and Burnett would be the FAs I’d target. I’d also go after Tanaka, but, if the rumor proves out, under the new posting system, that the player will be able to choose from among the top three bidders with which team he will negotiate, the Phillies chances of signing Tanaka are slim.
I’d trade Brown plus a mid-level prospect for Desmond Jennings. I’d trade Kendrick for Bourjos. An OF of Jennings, Bourjos/Revere, and Byrd would be a major defensive upgrade for the team.
I’d platoon Ruf and Brown, and bring back Chooch.
Finally, I’d cross my fingers and hope that Franco is ready to become a star by mid-season.
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Oops! I’d platoon Ruf and Howard.
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Forget Tanaka, for the reason you stated, not even worth further discussion. I don’t think KK would be enough to get Bourjos. Ruiz will be in Colorado or Boston next season. Rupp is a legit starting catcher. Just go with him and a backup from the other catching talent in the system. I wouldn’t spend the $ on a FA catcher. Too many of our own in the pipeline.
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Why in the world would you platoon Brown?
And Kendrick for Bourjos is a dream, never would happen.
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Never mind. Haha.
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We all know the Phillies are rebuilding and the best way to do that (as the Cardinals have shown) is from the farm. That being said, I see no legitimate outfield prospects ready for about two years, the length of Marlon Byrd’s contract. I think Amaro will sign a FA pitcher with a similar profile, like Scott Kazmir (just as an example, not saying he should be it). Give Biddle a full year at AAA and he may be an option in 2015. With their contracts done, for the 2016 season Rollins and Utley will be gone. 2016 will also be the last year on Howard’s contract. Eating a large portion of his salary in a trade wouldn’t be so bad for just one year.
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If the Phillies trade Brown for Bautista I think I’m going to jump off a cliff. Sure, let’s take an old team and trade the one young guy who is improving to get another older guy. Great planning Rube! If they do this and otherwise continue to get older, when this team crashes it could be a 67-73 win team for several years. How Amaro could take this economic juggernaut with some assets in the minors and turn it into this steaming pile of turd is beyond comprehension. Moron.
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Sorry for the angry e-mail, I am just so frustrated by this team. As mad as I am and as stupid as the decisions Ruben has made over the last three years (take a look at his free agent signings after Cliff Lee – could they possibly have been any worse?), he could still do some things that could make the team at least competitive next year, including picking up some pitching (Garza and Kazmir would be fabulous) and trading to get Bourjos (Kendrick and a couple of level minor leaguers would probably do it). There are ways to improve this team and give it at least a shot at making a WC run next year. I’ll shut up and let things play out and then, when it’s all done, I’ll weigh in. I reserve the right to scream and yell, however, if Amaro does something really stupid in the interim, like trade Brown and sign Nelson Cruz.
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Is there a qualifying offer on the table for Matt Garza? There is not for Kazmir.
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I’m not that concerned. If the price is right, it would be worth surrendering a second round pick to get Garza. I’m pretty sure one was made – it would have been stupid not to make it because: (a) he is going to get paid that much; and (b) he undoubtedly would decline it.
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On the other hand Kazmir is coming off a great comeback season and the Indians have not given him a QO, and he would be way cheaper. He profiles just like Byrd.
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He was traded mid-year; can’t QO those players.
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Thanks. Didn’t know that. So now it comes down to how much money it would take to acquire Garza vs. Kazmir.
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They have very similar stats, both last season and lifetime. Garza is 30 years old and made 10.25 mil last year. Kazmir is 29 and made 1 million with a 1.75 mil performance bonus last year, however in 2011 the Angels paid him 12 mil.
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Kazmir was good early in his career and decent last year but awful in between. Over the past five seasons, Garza’s ERA is 3.77, Kazmir’s is over 5. Those are not similar stats. Plus Kazmir is so painful to watch pitch that he almost sucked the joy out of being in the stadium for game 6 in 2008. He is Traschelesque. Thanks but no thanks.
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vs Nolasco, also without a pick tied to him
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No QO for Garza…a free bird without draft repercusions or compensation.
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Even better!
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Bob Brookover on signing FA Marlon Byrd:
“It seems suspicious that a guy who hit more than 12 home runs in a season once in his career would hit a career-high 24 at the age of 35, a year after being suspended for a banned substance. You’ll get the argument that he didn’t fail any drug tests last season, but neither did any of the players who were suspended as part of the Biogenesis scandal.”
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You really trust anything Howard Eskin comes up with in baseball? You need to stay away from the keyboard until you cool off.
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Relax., its not just Brown for Bautista one for one, look for Danny Norris to be included from Toronto.
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would ruben actually give away dom for joey bats? that would put us in a hole for years
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Everyone other than Howard Eskin is saying it’s a lie.
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Toronto fans want the trade.
Mike • 4 hours ago• 7 △2 ▽− +
⚑Bautista is a venom to the clubhouse. You don’t see how he always objects against umpires calls. Its the same call for everybody. How his demeaner is in the clubhouse. He is arrogant, he thinks he is the best player on the team (last year said otherwise). He has an ego, and that ego doesn’t hold well. I personally hope he is traded, for someone who is good, doesn’t think his sh!t don’t stink. I hope the hip injury is healed
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Well, take that with a grain of salt. If folks from Toronto read what has been written about Brown by fans over the last two years you’d think Brown was a combination of Marv Throneberry and Judas.
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So, that’s what it comes down to now, quoting some non-specific Mike from dot-c-a.
Why not just give your own ideas, And how does this Mike know all of this? He must either be some lowdowner that doesn’t believe what happens in the clubhouse stays in the clubhouse, or he’s the fly on the wall. Maybe an eavesdropper.
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I’ve been a fan of Dom Brown and never got down on him when he wasn’t performing. I was glad to see him have a decent year, but I don’t see how losing him will put the Phillies in a hole. He just isn’t the star we hoped he could be and it doesn’t look like he’ll ever get there. His defense will never be good and his hitting left plenty to be desired too. His OBP was .324 last year. He’s a good player but nothing special.
Bautista isn’t signed to a huge contract so that end of the deal won’t do too much damage either.
The Phillies will be in a hole for years though, that much we can agree on.
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MLBTR usually puts up anything resembling any inclination of a rumor on their site.
Have not yet seen the Brown/Bautista talked about transaction.
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It’s on sportsline.com as a “package” headlined by Dom Brown. Say it ain’t so RAJ
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Thanks.
Read it. If it does actually materialize, hope the Phillies get more then just Jose Bautista. straight up for Dom Brown.
Mentioned earlier somewhere on this thread, a prospect like LHP Daniel Norris would make the trade somewhat palatable.
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The Jon Heyman tweet seems to suggest that the Blue Jays would want more than just Dom Brown for Bautista.
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Hope Ruben doesn’t buy into that request, since Dom Brown at 27 will be around and playing probably longer after Bautista is retired.
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As I think about this, if the Phillies don’t trade for Bourjos (which, to my mind, could be a truly great trade of a below the radar capable player about to hit his prime), one of the best moves they could make is signing Curtis Granderson to play center, with Brown and Byrd rounding out the outfield. Revere could be kept or traded as part of a package to obtain younger players – either way is fine. Ruf is both insurance and gets at bats as a 4th corner outfielder and first baseman. Phillies then also sign someone like J. Johnson or Kazmir or both – or Garza. Add a $4 million reliever. It could still work out. Granderson could be a HUGE puzzle piece for them. Gives them OBP plus power. Team looks a ton better with him in the line-up. His value is a little depressed both because of his age and because he’s coming off a bad year where he was injured. Will probably command about 5 years and $75 million – would be worth it and could slide into a corner slot as he gets older.
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It might be closer to 5 years and $85 million – close call at that point, but the Phillies, due to their lack of available minor league talent and major league depth, and in light of their significant resources and need to keep fan interest, should probably do that deal unless they think they can get Matt Kemp for a reasonable price (salary dump type trade with some talent going back to LA).
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Sign Granderson, a 250 hitter with 150 Ks and a few homers, and lose the 2nd rd pick? No thanks, have to build through the draft especially with the 7th pick. Give me Young or Rajai Davis plus Garza or Nolasco plus Perznyski (sp?) or Chooch plus Joe Smith and we’ve upgraded without losing a pick. Garza and Nolasco will take 5 years at this rate but without the pick I’d do it. If you guys want to add Johnson also and let KK go, I’m fine with that but not as the #3 starter.
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Since when was 43 homers “a few” homers? The bottom line is that, when healthy, he plays to a 3-6 WAR and he has the type of skill set that typically ages well. Hell yes it’s worth a second round pick – not even close! The issue is the money and the years.
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Kemp might take Biddle plus Asche while the Dodgers will kick in some money. If we’re lucky it might take less like a B prospect like Dugan or Giles plus Biddle or Asche. The Dodgers don’t want all the money back, they want prospects but I don’t think the Phillies will trade Franco. It would be a huge gamble and if Kemp continues to only play 100 games a year, it would kill the team for years.
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My hesitation there is that you’re talking about a pretty bad outfield defensively.
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Not sure I’d call Granderson with his OBP below .330 in four of the last five years an OBP asset. His is also a below average centerfielder at this point who is only going to get worse through the length of the contract. An outfield of Brown, Granderson, Byrd would be bad, not as bad as Brown, Revere, D.Young but bad. I have no idea what Granderson will command in salary and years but I’d hate to tie-up all that money and a starting outfield spot on another contract that will hamstring the organization.
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I really dont get the love for Bourjos on this board if you really want a 230 hitter in CF than atleast go with Chris Young. He has good defense and power.
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He made sense last year when they did not have Revere. Better defense and a little more power though maybe a lower OBP/average. Getting both would diminish Revere’s value and I am not sure they can continue diminishing the value of their young players.
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I think he still makes sense. Having him or Revere as a 4th OF really improves the team speed and defensive capability and he is just entering his prime. He was excellant in his only year as a full time player. Again, for me it depends on the Angels asking price.
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Agree with that. Just think the asking price will be more than the marginal value increase in getting Bourjos (which is really getting a decent 4th OF if they are both not starting). Would prefer to use cash for that role, though I suppose I would trade Ruf to fill it too. Ruf just has little value as an OF to the Phillies. He has more value to a team with holes at 1B and/or DH.
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“atleast go with Chris Young. He has good defense and power.”
Older, not as much usable speed (SB/base running), Bourjos is an 80 defender, and the power difference seems negligible at this point. He’s 3 years removed from hitting more than 20 HRs, and that year with 27 he hit a disproportionate amount of them in Arizona (20 in Ari vs 7 away). Bourjos isn’t Revere, he has some power. I don’t doubt that Young has more, but how much more? It doesn’t seem like enough to me because Young is what he is, and Bourjos has some untapped potential that we could be buying low on due to his injury last year.
Also, why do you think Bourjos will be a .230 hitter? Because of his .291 career average in the minors? Or his .251 average in the majors?
Also, just for fun, Young’s career OPS+: 94. Bourjos’: 98. Peak OPS+: 108 and 116 respectively. Bourjos isn’t certainly going to be the better hitter, but he could be. And he’s shown enough that even if Young is better offensively, it is extremely unlikely that it will be enough to overcome Bourjos’ defense. And what happens if Bourjos is the better hitter? Doesn’t that seem like a risk worth taking if you’re the Phillies? Go younger with higher upside. We’re not going anywhere by signing the Chris Young’s of the world.
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I agree with you.
With Bourjos in CF the pitchers would be doing cartwheels knowing his speed and glove are automatic.
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Agreed. I’d really like to see this happen.
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I’m not sure I agree. I think its the Ben Revere, JMJ experiment all over again with maybe some defensive upside but not the power upside. I could be wrong but I would aim higher.
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Bourjos was hitting .220/291/315/606 in 2012 playing 101 games with 3 sb. Last year he played in only 55 games, thats not a guy I trade for just on the hope he might hit for more average and stays healthy….if you want that then why not give Gillies a shoot he wont cost you anything.
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When he hit .220 he had fewer PA than he did this past year when he played in 55 games. He was a defensive sub that year, not a starter. You can’t knock a guy for what his manager/GM decides to do.
What we know about Bourjos is that he’s an elite defender (a carrying tool in CF) with speed at worst. And he’s also shown the ability to hit double digit HRs and hit for a decent average. And he’s not injury prone. A broken wrist is a freak injury.
Gillies is injury prone. Gillies is not an 80 defender. Gillies is not as fast as Bourjos. Gillies is not the same.
All this depends on what Bourjos would cost, but at a reasonable price he’s better than Young.
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Young won’t cost a player, just money, that makes Young much more desirable to me because their talent might be close.
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That’s a key point.
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If I had to rank Bourjos, Revere and Young…it would go
Revere
Young
Bourjos
but thats why deals get done players get valued differently by different people.
Fact is if they had no flow they would not get traded.
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Because we cannot quantify its value very well, IMO we undervalue defense. I cannot prove it, but I believe that a major upgrade in OF defense would result in more wins. That is why I am in favor of getting rid of Brown and replacing him with Jennings and also adding Bourjos, who’s good enough defensively to push Trout over to LF.
Although I would have preferred Gutierrez or Chris Young over Byrd, an OF of Jennings, Bourjos/Revere, and Byrd should produce a few more wins than an OF of Brown, Revere/Mayberry and D. Young even after accounting for the hitting. There’s also a base-running improvement with the new group.
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Catch, if the Phillies were to sign another outfielder and give up their 2nd round pick it would have to one of Choo or Ellsbury. The only other player I would surrender that pick for would be Robinson Cano. I am surprised by your post as you advocate getting younger not older and not giving up draft picks.
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It’s a balancing act. I do advocate getting younger on the whole, but what I really care about is getting a roster that can perform capably until the next wave of players get here. I’m also concerned about the lack of power on the team.
I hate to tell you this, but a second round player in the major league draft is a valuable commodity, but it’s not THAT valuable. About one third of those players become major leaguers and probably thirty to forty percent of those players become above average or better major leaguers – so in a typical draft, the second round might yield about 5 or 6 solid major leaguers. That’s not me guessing, that’s based on a review of many years of MLB drafts -check it out for yourself.
Let me put it this way, a second round pick objectively probably has the value of a guy ranked in the top 6-10 of the minor league system. That’s a very small price to pay for getting a legitimate 3-6 WAR major leaguer for 4 or 5 years and can help put fans in the seats and dollars in the Phillies’ pockets.
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First of all its not just any old 2nd rd pick, its the 7th pick in the 2nd rd and second of all, the only type of players we should be giving up 1st and 2nd rd picks for are guys who bat 3rd or 4th or #1 or #2 starters. There are zero free agents (one if you include Cano but we have no where to play him) this year that fall into that category. I had the same opinion last off season. Think of the free agents last year and how none of them performed at a high level: Bourn, Swisher, Upton to name 3. Would you feel good having given up a 1st rd pick for any of these guys? We traded good prospects away for Pence and then traded Pence for what has been nothing so far. That’s a system killer. Brown for a 33 yr old constantly injured Batista? no thanks
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I kind of agree with you but unless I am mistaken there are a bunch of Sandwich picks that come off first before you get into the second round meaning if there was really a guy I wanted to sign with a solid track record I wouldn’t hesitate.
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In theory, the 2nd pick can be anywhere from 37 through high 40s to-low 50s, depending on how many QO FAs are signed.
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It will actually remain as that pick no matter what happens in FA
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Huh?
If for example 10 QO FAs are signed , the comp pick comes between the 1st and 2nd round….1A so to speak. So the 2nd Phillies pick will drop down that many numbered picks that wre signed as FAs..
They will not be picking at 37 in that instance.
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That was my point thanks for clarifying. Also I’m not advocating they sign someone who would cost them that pick.
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13 FAs were offered and declined QOs – and these are the only players tied to draft pick compensation (or penalty). Most of these players will sign with a new team. When the do,
– the signing team will lose their 1st rd (or 2nd rd) pick – Phils’ 2nd rd pick moves up a slot
– the team who offered the FA a QO will gain a supplemental – Phils’ 2nd rd pick move back a slot
There are 31 picks in the 1st rd next year (not including supplemental picks), one for each of the 30 MLB clubs and an extra pick for Toronto as compensation for not signing ‘what’s his name’ last year. The Phils should make the 2nd selection at no. 38 overall then. The offering teams will always get compensated with a higher selection than the Phils 2nd rounder via rd 1a but in order to be compensated a different team must have signed the QO’d FA, thus surrendering their own pick. It’s a wash. Am I missing something here?
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If one team signs two or more QO FA’s or if a team with a protected pick after #7 signs one or more QO FAs, that would knock down the Phils’ pick because the team would lose their second round pick that comes after the Phils’, but the compensation pick would still be in 1A.
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It’s kind of difficult to read some of the comments, but one of the Anonymi has it right.
Without regard to the comp picks, the Phils’ second round pick would be number 38.
There are potentially 13 comp picks that fall between the first and second rounds. For the most part, these comp picks will not alter the Phillies’ second-round draft position. The reason for this is twofold: 1) if a team signs its own FA to whom it made a QO, the comp pick disappears; and 2) for any of 26 teams that sign a single FA with comp attached, they will lose either their first round-pick or their second-round pick, each of which would be ahead of the Phils’ second-round pick.
There are two situations which would cause the Phils’ second-rounder to be after number 38: 1) if there are teams that sign multiple FAs requiring comp; and 2) if the Rockies, Blue Jays, or Mets sign a FA requiring comp.
Chances are the Phils’ second-round pick will remain very close to number 38.
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Right – we’re saying the same thing derek. Right now the Phillies second round pick is slotted at no. 38 overall. For every scenario where a team could forfeit their 1st rd pick or picks 1-6 of the 2nd rd, there is an equal scenario of a team obtaining a supplemental pick between rd 1 and 2 (i.e. rd 1a).
There is one scenario I could think of where the Phillies would actually drop to no. 39. If any of the teams with protected picks that fall after the Phillies (i.e. 8, 9, 10, 11) sign a player who received a QO, the pick they forfeit would fall after the Phils 2nd rounder anyway while the team who offered the QO would gain a supplemental, thus moving the Phils down to 39th overall
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There are competitive balance picks awarded at the end of the first round. I believe there were 10 of them. So Philly won’t be getting the 37th pick. And there are 31 picks currently in the 1st round., so they should be talking 38th pick. If all the compensatory free agents sign with top 10 pick teams and all the CB picks are made it could be 58th pick. If a team with a non-protected pick signs a compensable player, the 1st rounder disappears , it is a wash. If a compensable players re-signs with their team- it’s a wash also. If a team with a CB pick signs a player, they can lose a 1st round pick , if applicable, and the CB pick, So, the location of Philly 2nd round pick is unknown, but I doubt it is 38th.
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You’re right. I did forget about the competitive-balance picks. There are six after Round One of the draft and six more after Round Two.
That means that the Phils’ starting point, without regard to comp picks is Number 44, not Number 38, as I previously stated.
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Competitive balance picks – nice catch. Still, only half of the teams awarded CB picks will select between rds 1 and 2, the 2nd half will select between rds 2 and 3. 6 CB teams will choose ahead of our 2nd rounder. So we have 31 picks in the first round, the 6 CB selections between rds 1 and 2, and the 6 selections ahead of us in rd 2 is 43, giving us the 44th pick overall in rd 2. It could drop a few slots from there – maybe 45-47, but shouldn’t go lower than that. Remember that of ‘the top 10 pick teams’, six of them stand to surrender 2nd picks that are higher than the Phillies.
Sounds likely that our 2nd rounder is anywhere from 44th-47th overall
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Steve – Regarding teams signing multiple FAs requiring comp:
1. If the Marlins signed two such picks, the teams losing the players get two comp picks; the Marlins lose their second-round pick (which is before the Phils’ second-round pick) and their third-round pick. The net result is that the Phils’ second-round pick drops one position.
2. If the Mets signed two such picks, the teams losing the players get two comp picks; The Mets lose their second- and third-round picks, both of which are after the Phils’ second-rounder. The net result is that the Phils’ second-rounder drops two positions.
3. If the Yanks signed two such picks, two comp picks are again awarded; the Yanks lose their first- and second-round picks. The net result is that the Phils’ second-round pick is one slot lower.
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“1) if there are teams that sign multiple FAs requiring comp;”
But only if the ‘teams’ are not one of the ten teams with protected 1st rd picks and the FA is not one which the team previously offered a QO (e.g. Yanks w Kuroda, Granderson, Cano / RedSox w Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli)). All considered, there’s a very good chance our 2nd rd pick is no. 38th or 39th overall
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I don’t remember- How does the competitive balance picks figure into this? If I recall correctly there are 12 teams that will receive competitive balance picks in the upcoming draft.
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See what I put immediately (for now) above this. You forget the competitive balance picks.
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I can’t be the only one that is more worried about the slot money for our second round pick than the pick itself, can I?
Pick 47 (approximately where our pick will be) was worth over $1M last year. That’s a lot of draft allocation to lose. So the combination of the opportunity cost of the slot money and the player we could draft there makes me wary to sign any of this year’s crop of QO free agents. Cano is about it. Maybe Ellsbury/Choo. Pass on the rest.
Considering how heavy on pitching talent this upcoming draft is supposed to be, there’s a good chance we’ll either need some of that extra money to sign a stud that falls to 7, or we’ll just want the pick for a potential impact arm at that spot. Or both.
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Understand your point, and it is a valid point for sure, as to the lost slot money and the impact it can have for signing purposes. Not sure Ruben is concerned that much about that however. I still think that slot money for the 2nd pick is not a big concern to him…he never ever addresses that issue.
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Actually, the lost slot money is a more or equally valid criticism than losing the draft pick. A system killer? A second round baseball pick? Are you nuts? That’s just blantantly false.
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First of all, don’t put words in my mouth. Second of all, there have been plenty of solid-to-great players come from the second round. I said there will POTENTIALLY be an impact arm available.
The slot allocation, plus the chance of signing a player like that, plus the fact that we’d be overpaying the FA, plus the fact that they’d be an aging player, plus the fact that no matter who it is we are unlikely to make the playoffs, means, to me at least, that we’d be better off holding onto the pick.
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I seem to remember that–to cite two–both Schmidt and Rollins were 2nd round picks.
Not too shabby.
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And Rolen.
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Yeah, okay, you cherry pick two or three guys over 40 years and you are almost proving my point – most of the second round picks are not that great and fail to make the majors. There ARE gems in the second round as well as the third and fourth rounds. However, the typical second round pick never sniffs the majors. The value of a second round pick in baseball is similar to a late first round pick in the NBA or a fourth round pick in the NFL. It certainly has value, but if you can acquire a proven major leaguer who can help your team for three years, when you DESPERATELY need that help, it’s worth the gamble.
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Desperately need the help for what? To not make the playoffs again? Look at the full picture. In the current state of the Phillies, there are very few player worth a (relatively high) draft pick.
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Also, I’m not putting words in your damned mouth. The system killer comment was in response to Murray’s ludicrous statement that losing a second round pick is a “system killer” – that’s ridiculous. I also said that the slot dollar issue is legitimate and makes the choice a closer call but if I can get a 3-6 WAR player who I expect to perform at that level for 3 or 4 years at a slot where I desperately need an upgrade, I have to go for it. And I’m not generally an advocate of getting rid of picks or getting older, but this team needs the fans to generate revenue and keep the team competitive.
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Since they need to sign the player chosen in round 2, the money is basically spoken for unless they go college cheap.
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But that’s always an option. Maybe they draft someone that deserves the $1m+, in which case great. Or maybe they target later round players or need extra money for their first pick, in which case the flexibility we could get from that slot by drafting an underslot would be HUGE.
As I mentioned to catch, the convergence of a whole lot of different variables leads me to believe we are better off holding onto our pick.
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Although I disagree you certainly make the most cogent points regarding keeping the draft pick and, as I said, it’s not a slam dunk either way.
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Here is your list of players who received and declined their QO in order
Kendrys Morales
Cano
Granderson
Kuroda
Santana
Choo
Cruz
Jimenez
McCann
Ellsbury
Napoli
Drew
Beltran
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I see Chooch, Salty, and AJ Pier. in very favorable positions vs McCann and Napoli….if he in fact ever catches again, since no draft compensation/penal action are tied toward their signings.
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Anyway, the latest MLB trade rumor news is that the Rockies’ offer to Ruiz is 2 years and $15 million and the barrier for Ruiz appears to be last year’s 2 year $ 17 million deal for Russell Martin. If this is the ballpark Ruiz is in right now, a deal with the Phillies should absolutely get done and probably get done soon. At that money, the deal is fair for both parties although Ruben probably won’t be able to help himself and will give Ruiz some type of vesting option he he shouldn’t give. Actually, the vesting option is fine so long as there is a reasonable buy out amount ($2 million?).
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Agreed. If 2-$17M is all it’s going to take to re-sign Ruiz then this should be done ASAP.
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Yeah, with the news that Ruiz can use his Adderall again, I”d sign him for that.
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I’m reading that a 2 year $20mil deal is on the table for Chooch – no mention of the team who made the offer. I still think you put the 2 year $17.5 mil offer with a 3rd yr team option in front of Chooch and he signs it, even if another team offers him 2/20. This is an easy one – we need to get it done today – tomorrow
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Yeah, who cares about a lousy 2.5 million? On the other hand, tacking on a team option is like tacking on a non-guaranteed year. Like in an NFL contract they might tack on a $50 million non-guaranteed salary in the last year to make the agent and player look good, and all parties know the player will never see it. If it is me, I take the more money in hand. And, now, I believe , Ruiz exceeds the 2 for 20 thing.
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Off topic, but the AAV is $10 million on a 2-year, $20 million deal.
If a team adds a player option of $1 million for year 3, the AAV becomes $7 million for luxury tax purposes.
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Not sure that is how that works. If the $1 million is a buyout, it is part of the AAV for years 1 and 2. A 2 year/$16 million contract with a $1 million buyout for a 3rd $8 million year would be classified as 2/17 or $8.5 million for AAV purposes. Then if he stayed the 3rd year I think that 3rd year would get valued at only $7 million since the first million went to the previous year’s AAV.
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A player option is not a buyout. If the option is not exercised, the player does not get the $1 million. If it is exercised, the player is under contract for the third year in my example. A player option is treated as a guaranteed year. Thus, the contract is a three-year deal for luxury-tax purposes even though the player is likely to decline the option.
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Oh, if that is the way it is, it smacks of a loophole to me. Sort of the like the old NFL CBA clause where any incentive counted as a likely to be earned incentive which counted as money spent in the previous year which counted toward money that could be spent in the following years. Like Dan Klecko had an incentive that would pay him 8 million dollars if named MVP of the NFL and it was a likely to be earned incentive.
But, since this is supposed to be about Philadelphia Phillies, I don’t think they’re working on a plan to practically but not officially exceed the luxury tax this offseason.
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Never seen a player option that low. It is always a small buyout for a large option. Pretty sure MLB would not allow such a loophole. It would be like all the hockey contracts that were made illegal a few years ago.
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Matt Gelb on Marlon:
“……Byrd was a different type of hitter in 2013. He hit the ball on the ground just 39.2 percent of the time, according FanGraphs.com. It was his lowest percentage since 2005. More of his contact was in the air, a trend that bodes well for playing at Citizens Bank Park.
The adjustment came while he worked last winter with Doug Latta at a suburban Los Angeles baseball facility called the Ballyard.
“When I say it out loud, it sounds kind of silly,” Byrd said by phone. “My whole career, I’ve been taught to hit the top of the ball. When I started breaking down the swing, I realized when you hit the top of the ball, the ball goes down and it’s a ground ball. If you can stay through the middle of the ball, you can get the ball in the air. That’s what we worked on to try to drive the ball for more power.” It worked, and that is part of why Amaro does not believe 2013 was an aberration.
“We talked to our scouts about how his swing path and approach changed,” Amaro said. “He’s worked on it. I have to trust my scouts on it.”
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Ruben says, ‘ I have to trust my scouts on it’.
I hope he also puts some trust into his new hire Scott Freedman the metric analyst.
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Amazing what potentially doesn’t show up in advanced metrics however I will disagree slightly with Marlon. When taught properly hitting the top half of the ball while keeping your hands inside and above the ball is what creates carry.
Whatever adjustment and subsequent success he had last season is probably more about the orientation of his hands to the ball than where he makes contact with the ball.
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Ironically, Dom Brown, in March was shown by Wally Joyner a different and a new grip for holding the bat, and six months later the results speak for themselves.
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It’s too bad that Cano does not play a position where there’s an opening. He’s the only high-ticket free agent that I would have no reservations signing.
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You mean like an OF corner..? Yeah… he could probably learn to play there. But if we were to sign him, and I say this as a huge Utley lover, we’d get better value by keeping him at second and trading Utley
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No reservations? He’s over 30 years old and is asking for $300 million. Even if he gets down under $200 it’s still an albatross waiting to happen.
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Charlie Wilmoth of MLBTR states…’the Astros are hoping to add a power bat at first base ‘…hello!
Contact Ruben Amaro and ask about Ryan Howard’s availability.
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I know you are probably joking, but with the other options available for less- Looney, Napoli, Morneau, Ike Davis, ect. I have a hard time thinking that the Astros would even pick up the phone.
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I cant believe any team would do another ten year 200 million plus deal, after the ones we have seen so far, just too long, 5 years to me should be the term with a option for a six, the most. how many team have to get burnt, not to see its nuts to give these guys, those types of contracts
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Looks like David Murphy and Ruben are no longer friends.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/The-problem-with-the-Phillies-in-eight-of-their-GMs-words.html
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The man deserves a Pulitzer for that article…
Well said, Murph.
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Yes, it’s getting to the point where all the sportswriters and even the sports radio talk show hosts understand that Amaro is antiquated, frequently foolish and way, way, way behind the times. And they are all correct. But it’s not just Amaro, the Phillies’s organization is completely old fashioned (which is bad in many ways and in other ways good or okay). It’s bad because: (a) they apparently don’t see how out of date and inadequate Amaro’s approach has become; and (b) when they fire him (and, don’t be fooled, if he continues to fail, at some point they will fire him), I have zero confidence – I mean none – they will get somebody in to replace him that is in tune with the times – it will be another baseball old-timer and we’ll get more of the same garbage (if we’re really, really lucky we’ll get somebody who has some track record of success and who at least respects analytics). How we could have two guys from Stanford (Amaro) and Penn (Montgomery) who are so antiquated and traditional in their thinking and analysis is pretty stunning.
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Sadly, you are spot on with this in my opinion. I just hope that either one or more of the ownership group let it be known to Monty that it’s time to modify their thinking OR the cries for a change in thinking that is growing louder amongst the fanbase (and now some local media) has an impact.
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Been hearing Price for Howard. Its about the most ridiculous hting ive ever heard.
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Austin Wright struck out the side in the 8th and Giles struck out the side in the 9th to close it out for Peoria yesterday. Giles now with 6 straight appearances covering 7.1 IP without giving up a run. His last 3 outings have been nearly perfect with 3 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K. Take away that 6 ER mess in October and Giles has been nearly dominant
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Maybe Giles has turned the corner. Would be nice to see him dominant at Reading in 2014 and move up to LHV later in the summer.
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Giles has to have one of the strongest short relief arms in organized baseball. Last night his fastball sat (not touched, sat), in the 97-99 MPH range and he again touched 100 last night. He just throws pure gas, although he does throw decent breaking pitches too – enough to keep the hitters honest. It’s really all a matter of command and control with Giles.
Wright is an intriguing relief option – throws 92-94 and has secondary pitches too. A nice middle late relief option.
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Steve – I’ve talked about this before. Giles has been doing a good job, six straight appearances without a run. Yet, if you add in that October fiasco, Giles has a high ERA, and his other overall averages are probably bad.
The correct way to look at Giles is the way you are looking at him: six good performances and one bad one, or good performance 85% of times he has pitched. Statistically speaking, instead of showing overall averages for a pitcher, we get a better picture of his effectiveness by identifying 1) how many good outings the pitcher has and the typical line score in his good outings, 2) how many bad outings the pitcher has and the typical line score in his bad outings, and 3) how many mediocre outings the pitcher has and the typical line score in his mediocre outings.
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Watching baseball for a lot of years, I have seen guys throw gas and never make it in the majors, its really frustates me, as a fan, you say just throw it over the plate, but if you cant control your pitches in the zone, no matter how hard you throw they will hit you, example to me was Chapman giving up a bomb to Galvis this year,these guys all can hit the heat, you need that second pitch as a relief pitcher,and just listenting to guys on here who have seen him he has two pitches.I hope this kid has that breakout year, to have someone come up in the next two years, and can close, will help this team a lot, not having to spend all the money, Amaro has spent in the bullpen, and failed, has imo hurt them in other areas,
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Don’t see a lot of weepin’ and wailin’ on here about the supposed “snag” in the negotiations to bring a new “posting” system with Japanese baseball. Especially from those who think the PHILA organization is itching to hand over a pile of money for the right to negotiate with Mr. Tanaka and then sign to a whopping big contract (which , I suppose, might be their only hope).
Or maybe they just haven’t heard about it.
Word, from my interpretation of what I read is: agreement was made to take the two highest bids one is picked which then pays the average of the two bids, and if they do not sign the player they are fined 2.5 % of the posting fees.
Now, apparently , MLB says Japan took too long to approve , and they might submit a new bid, which some believe may scuttle the entire posting system.
The rub is that, several “small market ” teams want the entire posting fee included as a “luxury tax” item, which the Player’s Union must agree to, which they never would. And thus , in theory, the entire posting system goes away.
Now, who would be a large amount of money, that the Phillies are not among these “small market” teams, or, in any case, would vote against the posting system, in order to save face for this season vis-a-vis for not signing Tanaka. Don’t think they would tamper with the history of baseball for their short term self interest? They originally planned to vote for the Designated Hitter Rule simply because they had Luzinski, et.al. for the upcoming season, didn’t they?
Then, when they found out they had to wait a year, until after Luzinski, et. al. contracts expired , they changed the vote (see an ESPN feature).
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Many team owners aren’t actually baseball fans. They are business owners. They don’t give a damn about the history of baseball, they just want to make as much profit as they can.
And even for the ones who are baseball fans, $52M dollars is a compelling reason to put yourself before a game.
It’s easy enough to say that people in the business of baseball should put baseball first. But it’s a business. Player don’t play for free, either. Everyone involved is more or less trying to make as much money as they can however they can.
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Oh? Then you ADMIT the Phillies are leading the plot to scuttle the Japanese posting system in order to serve their self-perceived short-term public relations interests?
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‘Phillies are leading the plot to scuttle the Japanese posting system in order to serve their self-perceived short-term public relations interests?’….not sure about that, the Phillies are probably not alone in that endeavor. How many other small market teams would like a chance for Japanese talent without breaking the bank for a posting fee set by the NPL?
IMO, the posting fee should be the existing contract, plus maybe a small percent added value, the player has with his Japanese team he wishes to leave to pursue a baseball career in the U.S.
After all, the NPL does not want to be considered a ‘minor league’ system of a breeding ground for the MLB an lose all their top talent and attractions to the U.S. They should be compensated to some extent.
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Let’s see. In order to qualify for Free Agency in the Japanese league , a player must have 9 years, all of which must be in the top league. If a player spends one day in the minors in any of those seasons, it does not count toward the 9 years, That’s the root cause of the difficulties. Until the Japanese Players Union can get some changes in that contract, it will remain a problem with the movement of Players. That may be a problem in Japan because it is a real “go along with the program” type of culture. The national motto is “the nail that sticks up,will be hammered down”, not exactly “do your own thing”. It has been heard of that older people living on the streets and social outcasts, became such after speaking disrespectfully to a person with social status as a young person. So, there is likely to be no easy answers, to this.
For the record, if it was me, I would pay no massive Posting Fees into this system. And , if MLB must wait until a player plays 9 years in the top league, then that is also a problem. Would like to see Players get a better situation in the Japanese Leagues, The Mexican League, etc. If and When that happens, I would like to see the MLB, be less deferential toward the Japanese Leagues, the Mexican League, and College Baseball.
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Thanks for that information. I was not aware of the ‘9 year rule’.
And yes, I see your point on the the cultural background issue. Though admirable on some respects, it could be a deterence for some young players in forcing the issue for change.
Oddly, the young Japanese sect seem to be more open-minded and liberal then their parents, so to speak when it comes to the latest in music and techno aspects. I guess it does not always cross-over into corporate big business, which baseball is
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‘other small market teams’? The Phillies most emphatically are NOT a small market team and it is way past time we stopped affording them that excuse for their cheap thinking on acquiring new talent. Let’s call it what it is — a seriously misplaced obsessive quirk about the ‘perceived value’ of amateur/foreign talent vs established major league talent. The Phillies have one of the higher major league salary budgets in the business, but are wed to an outmoded notion of what kids are ‘worth’, what ‘their proper place’ is. This is especially true of international kids. Whether lingering racism or just a clinging to the ‘appropriate values’ set in the past, where international was the place you went to get young talent at a lesser cost than comparable US talent, this is a serious gap in their thinking. It is not a matter of resources, it is a matter of what Phillies Philosophy considers right thinking. This is an organization that can break the market for relief pitcher salaries, happily shell out $16 million to a Marlon Byrd, who commented to the press that he hadn’t seen another offer yet and was blown away enough by the money not to seek a competing offer.
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My point of reference to ‘small market team’ was that the Phillies are obviuosly not small market, but could be part of the contingency of teams, most of which I am sure are small market, to block posting fees established by the NPL. Who knows, for all we know the Yankees, Sox , Rangers etc may also be on board on trying to get the NPL to abolish the posting fee.
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‘ HOW MANY OTHER SMALL MARKET TEAMS’ dont understand that line in relation to phillies
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Chill.
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Should be working, but …
DMAR asks above, doesn’t Amaro get credit for 3 teams reaching the post season and a WS appearance? The short answer is not much. The longer answer …
Amaro did make some decent moves that helped those teams. But he made some questionable moves as well. The big picture is that, given the talent in the organization when he took over, plus the team’s financial resources, ANY general manager could have led the team to the post season in those three years.
Okay, I’ve said that before. But let’s get more specific:
2009 – This is basically the 2008 WS team, with Ibanez replacing Burrell and Lee acquired down the stretch. Ibanez wasn’t quite the disaster that critics feared, but not a signing I’d give him positive credit for. The Lee deal, OTOH, was certainly a good one. But let’s not overstate it. He gave up value for him. He inherited the minor leaguers he traded. Yeah, those guys didn’t end up amounting to much. Point is, he had the resources to acquire Lee, and made the deal.
2010 – Essentially the same team as 2009, except Halladay instead of Lee. Give him some credit for Halladay (again, he gave up value for him), subtract credit for the second Lee deal. Oh, and Polanco at third base. I don’t bash that signing as much as some do, but the team essentially got only one good year from him.
2011 – Lee and Halladay on the staff. Again, he inherited the resources to get those guys, but give him some credit for acquiring them. But … already some bad signs on the hitting/defense side of the gone. Werth is gone (in retrospect, the contract he signed with Washington is looking pretty good). Replaced in mid season by Pence. Rest of the lineup still the WS team, except for Polanco (see above). This is the team that you cite if you want to make a case for Amaro. 101 wins, but: (a) Most of the value is STILL from players inherited by Amaro, (b) he had the resources to get the other guys, and (c) already evident are a number of questionable short term moves that undermined the team’s future. There’s some other negatives despite the bottom line. I’m not as down on his bench construction as some people are, but over 500 PA combined from Valdez and Martinez is indefensible.
Look, counter-factuals are hard. But it seems to me pretty clear that, with the prospects that the team traded, plus the team’s financial resources, ANY GM could have supplemented the inherited core to the extent necessary to keep that team in the post season for those three years. And could have done so without undermining the team’s future to such a great extent.
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I mainly agree with this, with several caveats. The same point about inheriting the base can be said about Gillick, although RAJ is yet to discover his Werth. Comparing to Wade, he is also yet to discover his Victorino. He discovered Martinez and the guy has become an obsession. Second, you can’t divorce what GMs do from club philosophy. Third, a guy can be a good GM for a team at a certain stage, as I think RAJ was up to the winter before 2013 (arguably before 2012). Can he be a good GM for current stage of Phllies? He seemed to have the intelligence and broad baseball experience necessary, but the past 25 months have not been at all encouraging. He seems to lack the essential skill of being able to look at and recognize reality and behave accordingly.
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I’ll buy most of that, especially the bit about different GMs for different stages. Also, while we have differed in the past about the extent to which RAJ is the ultimate decision maker, I do agree that “you can’t divorce what GMs do from club philosophy,” and any replacement for Amaro would reflect (unfortunate) aspects of club philosophy.
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And to make explicit what may be implicit at this point: whatever the team’s success in years 1 to 3 of the Amaro era may or may not prove, in fact he’s probably not a bad GM for an established contender. But as a GM for a rebuilding team …
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“Steamer” stat projections out on Fangraphs (may have been for a while for all that I know).
These projections, as always, are to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt. But some interesting projections:
(1) Asche – does okay. Projected to hit .263 .313 .415 with okay defense. That may strike some people around here as on the low side. I think it IS on the low side, though not by a lot. (The hope around here, IMO somewhat justified, is that Asche’s makeup is a positive. Obviously a purely statistical projection method will not capture that.) Even so, that’s an only slightly below average regular. I think he’ll be … drum roll please, same as I’ve been saying for the past year and a half … an average regular. Which has real value. And, I hate to say it, possibly one of only 3 positions on the team next year where the Phillies will have an average or above regular.
(2) Revere – meh. .284 .325 .348 with just okay defense. Even so, because of base running, he ends up with the same projected WAR as Asche (1.4). But I think most of us would agree that Asche has more upside.
(3) Brown – . .272 .336 .470. About what I would have expected. But projects poor defense, so the bottom line is just an average regular (2.0 WAR).
(4) Howard – .245 .323 .451. With poor defense and base running, a well below average regular (0.7 WAR).
(5) Byrd – ouch. .256 .307 .413 and 0.6 WAR. Don’t know if that accounts for the change in home field, which should help the raw numbers a bit but of course not the WAR.
Utley does well, albeit not projected to be as good as 2013. They see a slight rebound for Rollins. Ruiz, if he ends up back (increasingly unlikely) does quite well. Ruf is projected worse as a hitter than I would have expected, but better defensively. Still a meh 1.1 WAR. Galvis does not do well. Hernandez projects as replacement level.
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Let me expand on the “grain of salt.”
As much progress as has been made on defensive metrics, for predictive value, especially for younger players, it’s probably best not to put much weight at all on them.
Hitting is a different story. Now, even there, two issues:
(1) The inherent variability (using any method) of player performance.
(2) Player development factors that aren’t captured in the statistics.
Now, we can’t do much about #1, but #2 potentially we can. But here is the key take away – you can’t dismiss the projections based merely upon a simplistic look at the underlying statistics. You can legitimately argue, for example, that the stats don’t capture Asche’s make up. But you CAN’T legitimately argue that (say) the system under projects Hernandez’ OBP (.315) because his AAA OBP was .375. Because the statistical projection systems already incorporate that data, and do so in a more sophisticated way than simply “eye balling” the numbers. (Of course, there may be OTHER reasons why you expect Hernandez to do better.)
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Completely agree on the strengths and weaknesses of these projections. I’d simply add another — I don’t think they know how to account for PEDs vs no PEDs, since we likely know just a fraction of users and especially we don’t have any good aging curves that are known to not include PEDs, but include modern medicine and not-chemically-assisted training techniques.
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Fairly grim projections. Others have projected better stats for at least some of these guys. On Revere, it depends upon whether you take whole season or discard first month, I guess. I’m a full season of stats advocate. Some guys are just always that streaky.
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I’d be willing to bet Revere will hit 300, Asche will hit 280, and Byrd will be good for 260 with 15 homers. These are just slightly better than those predictions but they’re better just the same. While I wouldn’t bet on it, I think Dom will go back to what he was before Charlie pushed him to pull everything for homers and become a 290 hitter with more walks and more doubles to left center but fewer homers. We’ll see. Howard is the wild card obviously. He needs to hit 35 with 120, can he be that guy again? I think he can but who knows. That’s what the team needs to be good more than any free agent signing.
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I read yesterday that Ruben just hopes Howard can at least get 100 RBIs in 2014.
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I’d take 100 but they really need the 120 to be a contender. The likelihood of it doesn’t seem great.
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If Revere, truly comes around and matures to the player the Phillies hope and pushes his OBP up 35/40 points, and Rollins reverses his OBP trend from the past few years and ends up at .335 or higher , and Utley just maintains, then 120 is a possibility. Of course Howard needs to stay healthy for at least 145/150 games.
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I think a platoon of Howard and Ruf at first would yield 35+ HRs and 120 RBIs.
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“On Revere, it depends upon whether you take whole season or discard first month, I guess.”
Even taking the full season that is a fair step back for Revere. Like Murray I see something closer to .300/.335/.350 Revere did for last year just extended over a full season (I hope).. Discounting the first month would get you closer to something like .347/.380/.404
I am pretty close to “steamer” on my projections on Asche , only slightly higher at .270/.320.420. The rest seem about right to me (this is why I am not a fan of Byrd rolling around RF for 3 years).
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Nolasco could be making a decision soon and I’m wondering if the Phillies are the team that has already offered him 4 years and whether they have a good shot at signing him. I’d rather have Garza but I think the price will go up for the one who doesn’t sign first between these two. There’s a significant cost assigned to the draft pick saved by signing one of these two, and its a first round pick for most teams, rather than Jiminez or Santana. They really need to sign one of these pitchers (I just don’t see them chasing Tanaka) to slot into the #3 spot. I’m also hoping and expecting Chooch to resign this weekend. It looks like Chris Young is being courted by lots of teams and some have a starting job to offer him which the Phillies do not so I’m not expecting to get him now. That leads me back to Rajai and his 45 steals as the perfect 4th OF. We’ll see….
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Tanaka may not be available to any team as there is disagreement between MLB and the Japanese League.
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The posting fee is ridiculous.
MLB needs to take a hard stand, and this will force the Japenese players to take up their own cause to the NPL claiming infringement of their financial livelihood.
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Should Japanese leagues be able to bid on major league players without a contract? They can’t and that is because of an agreement between the 2 leagues. We want to protect our players in their 6 years before free agency too. It is not really in the interest of the Japanese league (or for the most part the players) for the system to change too much. The Japanese players want a viable league in their own country too.
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You forgot MAG in the rotation mix.
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I didn’t forget him but you can’t slot an unknown guy as a #3.
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Woo to the team that gives Nolasco, a guy who has had 2 sub 4.00 ERA yearsin 8 (his advance stats aren’t good either), a four year contract. He should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Garza unless it is “We should pass on Nolasco and sign Garza.” I’d rather roll the dice on Josh Johnson, at least he has upside.
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Garza will take 5 years although I agree that I’d much rather sign Garza. There are many teams in on Garza so the price will be high and the term long. I don’t know if the Phils can sign him. Josh Johnson is a possible signing for the 5 spot instead of KK but not for the 3 spot.
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Nolasco is a 4/5 spot signing too, whether people see that or not. Garza and Tanka (and possibly Kuroda) are the only one’s who have shown the consistency to be 3’s on the market. Anyone else (and possibly Tanaka) is just a roll for the dice (do you get the 2013 Jimenez/Santana or the 2012). The Phillies aren’t really contenders at this point but they would need one and probably both of MAG an their “roll of the dice” pitcher signing to perform as a 3 or better (as well as have a number of other players have near career years) to hope to contend.
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Matt Gelb: Ruben is in a very tenuous position-2014 may be the measuring stick..
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Can-Ruben-Amaro-Jr-balance-future-with-now.html
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Chad Qualls could be a good pick-up. His Mariner experience in 2013 was encouraging.
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funny….
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Keith Law on the Byrd signing:
Ruben Amaro overpaid, and Law did not find one person in Orlando who said it was a good signing.
Law says Ruben thinks he has a contending team and the reason for the signing. Law thinks Phillies have virtually no chance of contending in 2014 unless Hamels and Lee have their best years. Further a signing of Garza would play well..
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Why do you or anybody care what Keith Law believes? If this guy was so smart he would be a MLB GM not a GM wannabe on ESPN. It is so easy to say whatever you want as a TV analyst. What would people say when Byrd was signed for somewhere close to 8 million a year by another team when people know Darin Ruf is not the answer and there no other internal solutions. I want to paraphrase Neil Huntington the GM of the Pirates who said to MLBTradeRumours that “Marlon Byrd arguably was the best outfielder available without giving up a first or second round pick in next years draft”. That is why Marlon Byrd was signed by the Phillies and he had other suitors if the Phillies did not act.
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Keith Law did praise Acshe and Franco.
Asche has improved his defense and may not be the typical power guy for a third baseman, but does have a quality hit tool. And Franco’s bat will play for sure, but the position is the question. He mentioned the experimental first base late season move and that the Phillies are acknowledging they may need to find a position for him, other then third base. But his bat is major league.
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And Keith Law was a Blue Jay. He acted as a major league and minor league scout, contract negotiator, and provided assistance to the team’s marketing and sales staffs. Law reached the position of “Special Assistant to the GM” before resigning in 2006 to work at ESPN.
So to imply he is not worth ‘caring’ about in what he says is a bit pretentious.
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I have never understood the Keith Law hate by some on this board (I know the contributors have a more realistic opinion of him). I will be the first to raise my hand and say that Law has much more knowledge and experience in baseball talent evaluation the I do. I think it is that he looks at the Phillie prospects critically and not through rose colored glasses and worse yet his style can come off as pretty abrasive and off putting. Is he always right? No. Find me a talent evaluated that is. Better yet find Amaro one who is!
I do find the seeming reversal of Law’s opinion on Franco after he ravaged him last summer to be a little humorous.
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Romus, then why did he not pursue a MLB GM position instead of going on a platform where he can not change anything. You seem to value what “talking heads” say too much instead of taking their comments with a grain of salt.
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Have to admit most of the talking heads do have plenty of observable evaluation experience. So I would tend to listen to their accumiulated projections and try to glean what they say.
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Why are there NFL coaches in the booth? It pays well, it is steadier work. People do something for awhile and want a new opportunity. Doesn’t mean they stank at their old job. His point seems valid.
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““Marlon Byrd arguably was the best outfielder available without giving up a first or second round pick in next years draft”. That is why Marlon Byrd was signed by the Phillies and he had other suitors if the Phillies did not act.”
That’s hardly a defense of the Byrd signing. And remember, the Phils don’t lose a 1st rd pick no matter who they sign. Anyway, it wasn’t only the player or the money that was bad, it was the timing. I hardly expected “Byrd” to be the first OF signed and for very good reasons. RAJ felt differently and figured he’d be damned to wait around for the market to develop when he could establish his own market instead. Byrd has to play at last season’s levels for this contract to work out. There’s a better chance of him being a complete bust than him playing two more seasons at 2013 levels. RAJ is an ass.
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Agreed. Like the Ibanez signing it seems to be Amaro bidding against himself. I don’t think we will see the full value of 2/$16 (I know that is a minority opinion) but it is another easy to reach option year that is again the killer in Amaro’s signings. Amaro needs to find better performance bonuses than making weight, being on the roster and At bats. I can see it now-at the end of 2015 Byrd swinging at everything to make sure he reaches his at bat option.
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Steve, there were other teams interested in Marlon Byrd and FA like Byrd get signed quicker than the bigger names, This is the same contract that Melky Cabrera got from Toronto last year. Byrd had a career BA of around .290 before 2012 and his injury and will improve RF . I would like to know what you would have done instead given the options available?
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The only reason why Melky signed for that was because of his PED use. If not for that he would have made signed a contract close to 100m.
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If it wasn’t for his PED use Melky would never have had the two good seasons he had to be able to sign a $100 million dollar contract. He is only a replacement level player without the juice.
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I didn’t say that wasn’t true. I was just saying that it was a bad comp
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Byrd was career .280ish heading into 2012. No matter – age and track record make it very unlikely that he’ll be some sort of value play that Amaro has suggested. I’m hardly jumping up and down in anger over the signing – and I even went so far as to suggest on another site that if Byrd was merely a complimentary signing to a more substantial OF acquisition, then I may even warm up to this so-called ‘void’ that Byrd somehow feels should the OF consists primarily of DBrown, Revere and Byrd. Ouch. I’ll withhold my true thoughts on the signing until we see what else RAJ has in store for us.
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I have a strong feeling that those who think another major outfield move is going to happen are waiting for a train that just won’t come. Worse yet I fear the results of such a move. if it is made. Kemp is would cost more than people seem to think and I don’t think Bourjos is the major upgrade people think he is.
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Because he has a pretty good track record. That gets obscured because of two related factors – no one is right all of the time, and his mistakes are magnified by his arrogance. But he’s right an awful lot.
And in this case, it’s not just him. The signing has been panned big time elsewhere. Not by everyone, but by a lot of people. I said some mildly favorable things about the signing at first, but, while I don’t see it as a huge mistake or one with serious long term negative implications, I have soured on it.
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Larry, you also have a history of changing positions quite often which you just proved again. Once you come to a conclusion can you stand by it and not change?
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I change positions – not as often as you say, but y es, more often than most on this forum – when the evidence warrants it. As it does IMO in this case.
Mind you, I haven’t changed my position much this time – from “meh” or even mildly in favor, to mildly against the signing.
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Yeah, Larry! The last thing anyone wants is someone who can process new information (like the option year on Byrd’s contract) and come to a different conclusion than his initial response.
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Aron, one should know all the facts before you suggest an opinion or belief on something then move forward as in a well run business. You just don’t run to your computer and post on things immediately.
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All the fact? Then I can’t venture an opinion on (say) the Pence signing are retired from baseball?
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Really? If one waited until he/she had ALL the facts no one would ever take a position or make a decision on anything. Ever. Or am I wrong and you are omnipotent?
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You are not wrong but you have to gather enough facts ahead of time to make an informed decision that has the greatest probability of success.
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Keith Law and just about every baseball guy was correct in the Byrd signing . . It was terrible, 3yrs (the vesting option is easy to reach a long as he stays healthy) for someone who is 36 and will be 39 when the contract ends. Also what makes him a power guy? Just bc he hit 24HRs last year when he’s only hit over 12 2x in his career. His numbers can only go down after a HUGE (in his standard) year last year. The only reason the Pirates GM said that was because well what other outfielders are on the market that are not connected to a draft pick? Ppl like Chris Young That’s who, no one who is worth 8m a year that’s for sure. Another bad move by RAJ.
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Eric, to be fair you have to see what happens after two years before there is any certainty in this move. Yes there are risks to this signing but people also questioned Shane Victorino’s signing last year by Boston.
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I would say the vesting option is NOT easy to reach. It assumes that the Phillies would put up with Byrd having a sub-700 OPS in the second year of the contract against RHP. If that occurred he would most likely be platooned and not hit the vesting on the contract. If he does vest it will be because his performance earned it. That does not mean he will be worth $8 million the second year. He probably will not. But the Phillies do not give him the 3rd year in that situation. For the contract to be worth it Byrd only needs about 2 WAR the first year and 1 WAR the second. It is not the dollars of this signing that make it potentially bad. It is that it really does not make the Phillies much better. Byrd is an improvement over what they had, he is just probably not that good.
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About the time now, perhaps Billy Beane is ready to trade Cespesdes. Thats what he does and grabs a boat load of prospects. He can play CF. I imagine it would take Dom Brown, Jesse Biddle, and one other, like a Jon Pettibone or a healthy Adam Morgan.
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Jim Salisbury, CSN, hot stoved this proposal a few days ago and got quite a few comments on it.
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Whaaaat? Thats a huge package for Cespedes. He wasnt even good last year.
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You can argue that Cespesdes isn’t a huge upgrade from Brown esp if Brown and trending up. It’s only been 2 years but Cespesdes numbers have been going down. Being a strength and conditioning guy I will tell you that his body is more conducive to breaking down then Browns is.
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Thats what i said about howard when they signed him, ortiz is a example of that body type who has not been affected , but in general they do break down a lot guys with that body type.
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I’d rather try and do a deal for Jarrod Parker, Beane loves to flip those kinds of pitchers.
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I wonder what Roy Oswalt’s situation is..his ERA last year was laughable but his peripherals were actually solid. He won’t cost much.
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Wally Joyner on the move again.
Now the Phillies need a hitting coach to go along with a pitching coach.
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No they need a pitching coach and if they choose a assistant hitting coach
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Right, thanks. Steve Henderson is still there.
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Drew Stubbs is available from the Indians. I think I’d rather have him as our 4th OF for his current salary than what Chris Young will cost. I’d still rather have Rajai Davis for his elite speed but Stubbs would be a nice bench piece and he wouldn’t cost that much (Dugan?)
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I have never understood the appeal of Stubbs and how he has maintained a starting job for so long. Yes, he has plus power and speed, but his contact skills are so miserable that they don’t play up. Yes, he can play he can play all three outfield positions but on the level of JMJ. He kind of reminds me of Hewitt except Hewitt numbers against lefties (albeit in the minors) are better and Hewitt is a better fielder. I would not trade a top 10/15 prospect in the system for him not even with the Phillies weak system.
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Stubbs actually has more power, more speed and is a better OF than JMJ but I agree that he’s a failed prospect at this point. That’s exactly the kind of guy that Gillick took in the past and sometimes watched blossom. Its a gamble for a guy with tools. Hewitt is not close to being that player unfortunately. I’d rather have Rajai Davis (or Chris Young) but we’ll see how that goes. RAJ may just keep JMJ as his 4th OF despite all of us being tired of him.
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Seeing more regular reports of an increased likelihood of Headley being traded. Begs the question – DBrown, CAsche, Revere, Aumont?
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To me, that would the type of trade made by a franchise that plans to spend the next 5 years wallowing in obscurity. Why would you trade a bunch of young players you need to obtain a good – but not great – position player at the very position that is greatest strength of your minor league system and at which you currently have a young player installed. If they did that, somebody should be fired.
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catch…apparently Ruben is reading your comments on this site and is getting a little unnerved. They now are looking at Peter Bourjus.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Phillies_still_like_Angels_outfielder.html
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That’s a good pick up – if the price is right. People say Kendrick and a top tier minor leaguer. I disagree. Look at what folks are offering for Ricky Nolasco and you see that Kendrick has a lot more value than people understand. Kendrick, one of their many relievers (DeFratus?) and a second tier minor leaguer might get it done. We’ll see. Bourjos would be a nice upgrade in centerfield.
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I was being somewhat facetious catch – though I’m certainly open to moving DBrown if it brings back a middle of the order RH hitter.
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I wouldn’t trade half of that for Headley. In seven years he had one okay year and one outstanding year. Perhaps he is a rebound candidate, but there are too many red flags there. He is at the end of his prime years and you can no longer hope that he is just going to get better and better like you could last year.
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Correction it is more like 5 1/2 years. And that trade creates two holes in the outfield when we have insufficiently filled the third to fill a place that isn’t a hole.
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That package could get it done. But ilo Aumont, with his uncertainties, Pads may want someone like Diekman or a starter like Pettibone.
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How does this deal possibly help the Phillies? We get a 30-year old who hits significantly less well than Brown. You move Asche, who might block Franco, for somebody who blocks Franco. You open a hole in CF. It just makes zero sense.
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Now, I would trade all of those guys. The return of Headley does not equal that, I say.
Maybe they could move Headley to LF and insert Franco at 3B. Combine that with the trade for Bourjos above, maybe that might be a promising start, but still the return is not worthy of giving up that much. People put up a howl when the meat of that offer plus was proposed for G. Stanton, now for that , on board.
The article, above, on the Bourjos trade proposal, which no one took credit for, apparently, mentioned Kendrick , but claim they might want Pettitbone, and mentioned the team may want some kind of 3 team trade with Brown and Revere heading out. Now that might be a promising start, combined with some strategic signingsl
But that package for Headley, I say no, prefer a real right handed power hitter for left, with the move of Franco into 3RD, adding on Bourjos for CF, now that’s promising. Then they can sign about 3 Free Agent pitchers, and that might be a promising start.
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Franco has about half a season of AA ball. He is not ready to start 2014 in the major leagues.
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Bryce Harper at 37 games in AA and 21 in AAA and his numbers weren’t as good as Franco’s….if the FO thinks he is ready it doesn’t matter where or how long he played there.
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Sorry, but… you are just kidding yourself if you see Franco as a Harper-level prospect. I like Franco, but he is not the top prospect in all of minor league baseball. Harper was for two seasons. In his two seasons in Washigton, Harper has not failed to put up an .800+ OPS. Franco had better stats at AA, but was also 2 years older. As you say, Harper had some AAA experience before coming up to the bigs.
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Exactly. Harper was in AA as an 18 year old in his first year of pro ball. No comparison to be made there
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I am not comparing him with Harper just pointing out it doesn’t matter how long you play in the minors if you are ready you are ready. Just to send him back because he had only half a season would not help Franco or the Phillies.
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Super Two ramifications. Comes up no earlier then mid-June. Comes down to the bottom-line.
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Franco may not be ready for the majors at the beginning of 2014, but the reason would be deficiencies in his game, not that he has only played a half-season of AA ball.
As you know, it’s also not a necessary step to make a stop in AAA before moving up to the bigs. The reason for Franco to do so would be to make whatever adjustments the organization finds necessary before he is considered ready.
If Franco continues to improve and does well in ST and in the first half of the AAA season, a mid-season call-up is not unrealistic. He’d be almost 22 by then, and progressing at a much different pace from Harper.
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Phillies sign Ruiz 3 years $26million
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Rosenthal/Gelb claiming that the Phillies have reached agreement on a deal with Ruiz- 3 years, $26M.
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Nice I actually predicted/thought/guessed he would get 3/$36 so they actually came in $10 Mil under budget.
The Phillies have money to spend and baseball has money to spend so you haven’t seen anything yet.
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amaro gives a 35 year old catcher , 26 million dollar deal with a fourth year option, my god it just keeps on getting worse, no way he should have gotten this deal, ilike carlos but he is 35 and coming off a drug suspension. wtf is amaro doing
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Chooch’s agent held out for the 3rd year and got it. With the catcher options, the Phils really wanted Chooch back and I’m okay with that part. Giving the 3rd year however feels like we’re paying a bonus to Chooch for prior years’ services going underpaid. Its hard to see him as the starter for 3 more years but the Phils have no one else at the moment. I expect Rupp to win the back-up job next year and play 40 – 60 games and we’ll see how he does. I guess Chooch will bat 7th with Asche 8th after Dom 6th. As long as he’s approved for his adderall, I expect a good year from Chooch next year. Everyone should remember that Chooch is not a guy that’s been catching since he was young. He didn’t start catching until around 20 so there’s a few less miles on him than the normal 35 yr old catcher (a few…)
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Yeah I’m Ok with it. Wish they wouldn’t have gone the third year but the AAV is reasonable. At worst he spends that third year playing 70 games and tutoring his replacement and helping the pitching coaches.
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RAJ constantly gives the extra year but you can see across baseball that most guys are getting the extra year in their deals, its a form of sunk cost. The Phils could probably afford an extra year over a higher salary next year. $8.5M for Chooch is what he costs, Boston supposedly offered $10M. The agents do their jobs very well in squeezing out every last penny they can.
I think the pitcher signing could take much longer because so many teams are in on these pitchers. Demand is very high so the price will be very high.
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He may have fewer miles on him as a catcher, but at 35-37 players at all positions tend to break down.
I’m ok with this deal — I’ll be happy to see Chooch, Jimmy and Chase play their whole careers as Phillies if that’s how it ends up going down and nothing else out there at catcher really excites me. Also the catchers seem to be percolating a bit down on the farm, so hopefully Chooch can bring someone along over the next few years.
Grullon is a really exciting although obviously too young to consider a realistic possibility for the future.
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Joseph with his concussions really set the team back plus Knapp, our 2nd rd pick, needed TJ surgery so he’ll lose a year too. Meanwhile Valle is a lost hope… Let’s hope Grullon and Lino step their games up this next year.
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I’ve pretty much written off Joseph barring some kind of minor miracle so I wasn’t thinking about him when I commented, but I also forgot about the TJ surgery. Yeah, maybe percolating isn’t quite accurate. What’s the word on Sweaney? His profile page here is blank.
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Really can’t conclude much either way out of GCL results, but his start was about as bad as it’s possible to be with the stick.
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He was a bit overmatched, I made the page and haven’t written it yet. He is athletic, the swing needs work, and defense was just ok.
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Thanks. The profile pages are great by the way.
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I seem to agree with the consensus here that this contract is fine. There’s a lot of teeth-gnashing on other sites about it, I’m not exactly sure what they think they’re going to get on the open market at $8.5 a year. The way I choose to look at it is, Chooch at $10 million a year for the next 2 seasons and $6 million for Year 3, when he will presumably be a backup/RH bat off the bench. That’s not an overpay, considering Ruiz’s defensive value, useful right-handed bat, and relationship with the pitching staff. It’s a boring move, but I’m not in favor of change simply for change’s sake.
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I agree. Unpacking this a bit:
-Some of the opposition is a failure to appreciate the ways in which the FA market has changed. With fewer good players going to FA, but more money (TV) available to sign them, supply & demand will lead to higher salaries.
-Some of it may be failure to appreciate team specific issues. The Phillies’ payroll situation over the next couple of years is such that this deal will not likely constrain them that much. Moreover, there isn’t a catching solution in the system, and the other FA options were unappealing for one reason or another.
-Some of it may be failure to recognize Ruiz’ value. A tricky issue since he probably will decline, but he could easily be a bargain in at least the first year of the deal.
That said, the chance that he will be worth the price over the full length of the contract is low.
But maybe more to the point from my perspective, what’s frustrating about the current state of the team isn’t so much the new contracts to aging veterans – Utley, Ruiz, Byrd, Rollins going back a couple years. It’s more that the team mostly lacks younger talented players to balance out the old, somewhat over priced players. So while each contract is defensible on it’s own, the overall course of the team is aging mediocrity. I’ve somewhat defended this approach, despite other criticisms of Amaro, given the lack of options. But if this team really is fielding those 4 guys in 2016 – possible given makeable vesting options -wow, that could be ugly.
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Not to mention Howard, who has a–shakes head, places in hands–2017 option with a $10 million buyout.
But you can’t completely blame Amaro here. Valle was supposed to be ready by now, and when that appeared to be foundering, the GM clearly tried to address this need by trading for a high-proximity catching prospect a year before Ruiz was ready for free agency. He’s not stupid. It’s just that prospects flame out or get injured. And then, when there’s no viable in-hour option, you have to go with what’s on the open market, and Chooch offered this best deal.
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My point isnt the amount its the years, hudson is signing for two, amaro keeps jumping the gun on players, and gives them extra years, papabon is prime example., no one was giving byrd that type of deal with a third year, he just gets outplayed by other gm,
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The problem is Amaro gets outplayed by himself.
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All true, which is why the real source of the Phillies problem lies is persistently shortchanging the farm. Almost no team in baseball spent less on draft/international, had fewer draft picks, or traded away more prospects than the Phillies during our good years, when we were flush wit $$. Few teams with anything approaching our $$ did less on the international pro player front.
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Joseph was damaged goods when we got him. Nothing was said at the time, but the prior history of multiple concussions was there, such that a foul ball to the mask basically did enough damage to wipe out well over half a season.
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Cheese ! Someone put one over on Amaro. The list expands!
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“-Some of the opposition is a failure to appreciate the ways in which the FA market has changed. With fewer good players going to FA, but more money (TV) available to sign them, supply & demand will lead to higher salaries.”
I think this is the most salient point. Especially with the new CBA it is becoming increasingly clear that what I will call the Yankees model of signing the best free agents available if it works will cripple a franchise in the future. Even the Yankees now are trying to get under the luxury tax because sustaining a salary above it becomes untenable after a few years. Really the only way to sustain success is with a base of home grown talent and a few under the radar free agent pick-ups. Really this is what the Phillies did to build the 2008 team, (it even leaves room for a few bad fbig free agent signing- see Eaton, Adam.
Unfortunately to sustain success this requires a smart FO and an unsentimentality to let beloved homegrown talent leave instead of signing them to crippling contracts-see Pujois, Albert. It is what the Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, and St. Louis Cardinals have done. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay and Oakland only the Cardinals have seen the ultimate success out of this. The Phillies have the advantage of higher revenue and payroll then those teams but unfortunately they have only used it to hand out extra contract years like they are amphetamines in an early ’80’s clubhouse .
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Is it possible by that time Asche, Franco, Revere, Brown, Crawford and this years #7 and some wild card (Perkins/Altherr) are on the club?
Is it also possible that a few of these guys get traded in that last year of their deal…
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Well sure DMAR. But that to some extent highlights the problem. None of those guys except maybe Crawford (and possibly Franco if he sticks at third) project to be stars. And 2016 is probably a bit early for Crawford.
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Call it semi-informed instinct, but I expect Crawford to be promoted by the end of the 2015 season, although it may not be for good at that point. I can’t wait to see what Crawford looks like this spring with a full winter of strength training and conditioning. If he develops power (and he’s pretty big, so he could), watch out. The sky’s the limit. He is as smooth at shortstop as anyone you’ll ever see. It’s a beautiful thing to watch.
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One positive data point on the deal ….
I posted Steamer projections a couple of days ago. They weren’t, on the whole, very pretty.
But Ruiz, as I remarked at the time, projects pretty well. In fact, he and Utley are the only Phillies position players projecting to be above average regulars. Ruiz projects to 3.0 WAR. His hitting is projected to be .274 .344 .415, which is above average for a major league player. Getting that kind of offense from your catcher is pretty darn good – and he remains a good defensive catcher.
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Here’s my take FWIW. I don’t have a big problem with this deal because as others have said, there is no good viable alternative. Having said that, that should have been obvious to our GM long before now and had he had a bit of foresight on this topic maybe he could have signed Chooch for this AAV over 2 years rather than 3. He made the same mistake with Jayson Werth (which led to a long list of mistakes that compounded his original mistake), Cliff Lee (same story), and then the one guy he did extend early, he gives $125M to when he clearly didn’t have to. Ugh
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Buddy you are really on to something. It would be interesting to draw a flow chart of Ruben’s mistakes compounding original mistakes – it’s ugly. Perhaps the biggest mistake in retrospect was the first Cliff Lee trade because it probably cost the team another WS title.
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As the revenue that baseball generates continues to accelerate, whether a player’s contract is good or bad is becoming increasingly irrelevant. The teams have the money. The only limit for a team like the Phillies is the luxury tax threshold. That may not even matter in another three years as I would not be surprised if the luxury tax disappears altogether in the next CBA. I expect a big push, including the threat of a strike, by the players’ union for the players to get their share of a much bigger pie, one of the implications of which would be elimination of the luxury tax.
When that happens, the only people still calculating the dollar value of a WAR will be the old geezers who refuse to recognize and accept change.
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I don’t see the Luxury tax ever going away and the only possible way that it would, would be to implement a hard cap which the players union definitely doesn’t want. While the game is flush with money there is still tremendous inequity between franchises and the only way to keep that some what in check is with the tax.
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This Phillies team may have the greatest players in their long history at several positions. And a few, if not the greatest, are in the top echelon of the organization.
Rollins, ss
Utley, 2nd
Howard, 1st
Ruiz, c….top three for sure
Hamels, lhp…..maybe behind Carlton and not sure Simmons
Lee, lhp……not sure he qualifies in service time
And pre-2013 Victorino, cf….behind Ashburn, Maddox and maybe Lenny.
The letdown and disappointment….only one championship to show .
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The only thing I would take issue with there is maybe behind Carlton. I love Cole Hamels, but there’s no maybe about that.
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Robin roberts is second, playing for those bad teams. and simmons right now, before cole
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I think he was referring to just LHP, and he meant to say behind Carlton and maybe Simmons. I think Simmons and probably Short are ahead of Cole, maybe a few others, but I would have to do a little research first.
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damm i forgot short
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Hamels “maybe” behind Carlton?????????????????????? Yikes.
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At the present I would put Carlton ahead of Cole.
But then again, who knows in 4/5 years from now.
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Couple thoughts …
Rollins and Utley are easily the best at their positions. Howard probably also, though somewhat by default.
Ruiz is, by WAR, in a virtual tie for fourth. One of the guys ahead of him was a 19th century player (Clements) who IMO isn’t really in the discussion. So yeah, one can make an argument for third, but I wouldn’t say “for sure.” I’d put Lieberthal and Daulton in front of him. He’s in the conversation for third along with Seminick, Boone and Lopata. Though if he finishes his career strong I could see him having an argument for second – hard to see him pass Daulton (small chance he could pass him in WAR but Daulton’s peak value would IMO still trump that).
Vic I loved as a player, but I think you also have to put him behind a number of older players – Thomas, Hamilton, Williams. Center field has been a strong position for the team.
Hamels and Lee I would rank a little lower, though Hamels especially could rise. By WAR, which admittedly sells both players a little short because of career length, Lee especially, neither player is really in the conversation.
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Again Jim Salisbury reports last night that the Phillies are ‘quietly’ pursueing talks with the LAA for Peter Bourjos. The hang up is the LAA want pitching and the Phillies are thin there according to Salisbury.
Do we really need KK as a back-end guy I ask?
Can’t we get someone else to fill that role!
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My guess the Angels realize they need something more than a pitcher of KK’s ilk.
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It might take something like KK and Morgan. A slight too high price to pay, but I’d do it.
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