AFL Update – 11-8-2013

Other Stuff

I’m short on time today and so I’ll leave the analysis to you all.

A note that Your Peoria Javelinas will be on MLB Network tomorrow night at 8pm EST, as they visit Surprise. The game’s being televised as they test the MLB replay system for next year. I’ve been watching parts of the games this week, and I’m hopeful we’ll get to see some of our guys on that big stage. Cam Rupp has played in two straight, so if he’s off today, he could be back tomorrow, and both outfielders have been playing plenty. Giles and Wright both have been off a couple days, so they’re in the mix if they don’t throw tonight, but I would guess we won’t see Nesseth or Simon, as they both threw yesterday and have been spread out to at least two days between outings all season.

Here’s the link for the Phils’ Off-Season League stats. Freddy Galvis is tearing it up. He’s got four multi-hit games and five XBH in his last six contests.

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi

11-8-13 AFL Stats

26 thoughts on “AFL Update – 11-8-2013”

  1. Giles is interesting. He had one bad, or should I say horrible, outing. If we take that one outing out, he’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, 3 hits, no runs, 13 Ks and 5 BBs. I’d like to see him take a step forward in Reading next year.

    Galvis is having the best Winter League session of any Phillie this year. He’s only 23 (soon to be 24). He’s spotlighting his talent for all to see. I’ll leave it there.

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    1. Agree with you on Freddy. Perhaps he is more then ever, determined to make the impact as a starter come spring 2014. Nevertheless, with his skilled defensive abilities to play all of 2nd, SS, 3rd and LF, he could see extensive playing time under Sandberg.

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  2. Both Rupp and Galvis are giving us a little hope that they can contribute to a better (and younger) group of players that is refreshing the franchise for the loss of Chooch now and J-Roll after ’14. With the addition of Asche and soon Franco the old man’s club gets brighter.
    The mystery is whether they all could develop into solid players replacing the Old Guard.

    Encouraging…or teasing?

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    1. But there’s the conundrum. The Phillies either lose Rollins for much of 2014, either to trade or the bench, or they’ve got him in 2015. I don’t expect 2015 Rollins to be a pretty sight, but he will be an expensive player. I think that Asche, Galvis, Rupp, Hernandez all have the potential to develop into solid players, although realistically probably we’ll hit on only have of them and the other two are bench guys. Unfortunately, I don’t think any of these guys develop into above average MLB starting position players. Despite the Phillies difficulty in producing them from the farm in recent years, it really isn’t all that hard to grow you own almost-average MLB starters. The problem is that the guys we’re losing over that time frame were stars and it’s far harder to produce a star starting position player. That’s what is going to really hamper the Phillies. Franco and Crawford perhaps, but I really don’t see any other possibilities, until you get to the real long-shots like Cozens.

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      1. Agreed. Although there is some chance that Phillies can get younger but with mostly average (at best) position starters:
        C=Rupp, 1B=Franco, 2B=Hernandez, SS=Galvis, 3B=Asche, LF=Ruf, CF=Revere, RF=Brown, OF=Dugan, unknown=Joseph

        That lineup would need superstar production from Franco (too young yet) and Brown. The defense would need to be Top5 with great pitching.
        Ruf would have to continue massive OPS numbers, Revere would need to get on base for a bunch of steals. Asche would neeed to bring power and timely hitting.

        However, with two stud Free Agents (preferably at OF and 2B) the lineup might end up just above average in the NL. Tough to do.

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        1. I still think thwy can get a guy like Castellanos for LF from the Tigers. But Ruben needs to win (make the playoffs) next year or else, so he is not concerned so much about 2015 and beyound.

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      2. Can we talk about the options with Rollins in detail at some point?

        Can we agree that he and Galvis were basically equivalent players last year (in different sample sizes of course)? Same OPS/good defense.

        So Rollins publicly stated he will not accept a trade, and he’s got an easily attainable vesting option for PAs. I imagine the Players Association will throw a fit if we limit his use down the stretch to avoid the vesting option. Why not then just declare an open competition for SS in spring training? Rollins’ production last year does not warrant him continuing to be handed the job. If Freddy plays well in ST, then Rollins is your first PH off the bench and maybe learns to handle multiple positions. Hopefully he then accepts a trade, and we maybe even get the bonus of something back for him. If Rollins shows his power stroke in ST and wins the job outright, then hopefully you have a competent SS for the next two seasons. It’s a win-win to me, except for the dreaded team chemistry thing. But Rollins comes off as a pompous jerk a lot of the time anyway, so I don’t really care for that. I want more youth and hustle on this team and vets to stop feeling protected. The same things goes for 1st base with Howard/Ruf with at least a platoon.

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  3. The way that I see it ruben doesnt have to win, he is homegrown and the owners in this town, love home grown, if you look at flyers and phillies with ruben and before that wade, for a long time. so ruben has most likely 3 to 5 years more, before they team moves in another direction.

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    1. I think you are correct. The Phillies don’t change GMs rapidly. There is no indication that RAJ has not been doing what the owners want him to do. Monty has already commented about 2014 and they aren’t the comments of an owner who expects to go to the post-season. It was Manuel, not RAJ, who was fired. If the owners were unhappy with RAJ, they would have fired him and allowed a new GM to pick the new manager and coaches. It is clear that ownership sees 2014 as a transitional year, with little chance of winning. Under those circumstances they would not keep RAJ under terms of one-season sink or swim. That would make zero sense. We just aren’t currently a good enough team for that to be the standard of judging the GM. Whatever the team chooses to call it, and it likely will go on without a label, ownership and management seem to recognize that we are into a rebuild. Ticket sales must be preserved in the interim, so we won’t see it labeled thus, but that is where we are today.

      Those like anonymous above who proclaim this RAJ’s last year if the Phillies don’t win, present know evidence for this claim, and are just reflecting their own frustration with the team’s recent results.

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      1. Actually what evidence do you suggest that next year is NOT Ruben’s last unless he makes the playoffs. Monty’s ‘homegrown friemdship bond’! Ed Wade had that also…more so then Ruben Amaro, since Ed started with Monty way back when.
        How about poor attendance in another down year….is this evidence?
        How about their financial investment in a foreign pitcher from a country like Cuba, in which they are reluctant participants in the past?
        And ‘transistional year in 2014’….seriously…are you kidding me!
        Explain why you think that is the case…..now if they make the FA signings and trades as expected, will you say it is a transistional year?
        The winter meeting are coming up and who knows what they will be doing….but they will not right off 2014…I can assure you that.

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        1. ANd Ruben has not had a long run?
          AND with the some of the best of Phillies players in their entire HISTORY!….Howard (1st), Utley(2nd), Rollins (ss). Hamels and even Halladay as a future HoF. And then there is Chooch behind the plate.
          Now Ed Wade had Rolen, Abreu, anyoung Rollins and maybe a pitcher like Myers.

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          2. Except, that team won 102 games. Can’t do a lot better than that. It’s certainly not on RAJ that Manuel couldn’t get this uber-team out of the first round of the playoffs. All a GM can do is assemble the necessary talent. RAJ clearly did this. After that, it’s on the players and field staff. I’m not too hard on the players/field staff for the playoffs — that’s a crapshoot, but the early demise is certainly not on the GM.

            Wade also had a pitcher called Schilling and a slugger named Burrell. Unfortunately, he also had a manager named Bowa.

            In addition to Monty’s earlier comments about the 2014 season, here is what RAJ had to say about over-the-winter player additions:

            http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/philliCees-amaro-shops-free-agent-market?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

            Certainly doesn’t sound to me either like a GM who thinks he has to win in 2014 or be gone. Also doesn’t sound like an ownership that is exactly willing to put a lot of chips on the table for a pennant run in 2014. Perhaps a slightly higher class of patch-and-fill than last winter, but nobody seems to be promising/suggesting anything more than that. No urgency that we need to buy some big stars now to reap the huge TV contract, because huge TV contracts aren’t premised on such ephemeral actions.

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  4. Wow! This changed into a General Discussion. Often, when the season is over and we wait for the next season to begin anew, most of the discussion turns to moves the big club should make or fire the GM or the coaches. Let’s get back to the discussion at hand.

    Let’s talk about the best pitcher, so far, in the winter leagues. I think if you take that one outing away from Kenny G’s totals, you’d say he is having the best winter. But a guy who was having the best winter was Kyle Simon. Up until 3 outings ago, he’s given up 1 run in 7 1/3. His last 3 outings have yielded a run in each. His last outing, he gave up 5 hits in 2 innings. He may be tiring or guys are catching up to him. I don’t hold out much hope that he’ll ever be much more than a ROOGY but he gives us a little something to talk about from the pitching side.

    On the opposite side of the discussion, Nesseth has been terribly, horrendously awful.

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      1. Simon has pitched well in Winter ball two years in a row now but comes up short in the regular season. Not sure what that is about. I might have to see if another team is interested in him.

        Rupp is making his presence felt if or when Ruiz doesn’t come back. And finally I can’t wait to see if Cam can breakout in Reading next year.

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        1. DMAR – I have big expectations for Cam in Reading next year. In fact, I think that Reading outfield is going to be the best Reading outfield in years. I expect Dugan to return and have a big year and I firmly believe that Altherr will re-enter our Top 10 by mid-season. He had what seems to me as an underrated year at Clearwater in 2013 – he’s a legitimate prospect though I would even admit to writing him off somewhat after 2012.

          I should add that I’m generally somewhat pessimistic about prospects – but provided health is not an issue I could envision three outfielders OPS’ing at .850 or better next season. Jiwan James should see plenty of ABs as well.

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          1. We are do to get lucky with a guy like Perkins or Altherr if you buy the better lucky than good cliché…

            To the extent that one of them becomes a corner OF and produces Victorino like numbers in the bigs.

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  5. I say if they truly have any one out guys, they should release them. Figuring the total innings they each have the work they might get in a week or two in a full season. If you factor out Giles, who is getting some of the work in he didn’t get in the season, I say most of the other guys are there to fulfill the requirements of filling a roster, in the agreement made with the other 4 teams to stock a Fall League Roster.

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  6. Tommy Joseph got into a game at Catcher a couple of days ago. Went 1 -3 with a RBI and a K. He caught Brennan Boesch stealing and had an error on a pickoff throw. I’m not concerned, in the least, about the E on the pickoff. He’s being aggressive and I like that in his 1st game in a while. The fact that he was behind the plate is a huge plus.

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    2. This will be an interesting test for Joseph. Dominican league is a level above the others. At least he is on a team with a few familiar faces like Leandro Castro and Greg Smith from LHV last year. If he can hit .250 and play decent defense and have no more concussion symptoms it will be a positive after last year.

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