A bunch of QOs have been announced, options are being declined and accepted all over the place. Soon we’ll have Full Blown Free Agency, Non-Tenders and the Winter Meetings. The Hot Stove is about to be turned up to high, and I for one look forward to making Jiffy Pop with the overwhelmed steam pouring out of Ruben Amaro’s ears.
Hey, remember when people used to make Jiffy Pop on the stove? That’s what I was referencing there. Do they still make that kind?
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
Do not know about Jiffy Pop, but if you use steam heat to pop your popcorn all you’ll end up with will be soggy mush. You always want to vent steam away from the popcorn
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Jiffy Pop seals the corn in foil, protecting it from the steam. Thanks for the tip, though.
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how many people still used the stove. everything is microwave.
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Yes, they do make Jiffy Pop. About once a year, we will buy some for family movie night. Our kids get a kick out of it, and so do we.
Hot stove season is here. Depending on what realistic players appear to be out there, I for one would not be against seeing what the market for Lee will be, and would not be terribly upset if he were to be traded (assuming there is a dance partner). It would be a realistic assessment of where the Phillies stand, which barring major surprises, is a 500 team.
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What is realistic for Mark Trumbo? If it’s fair I don’t see a reason not to do it when you consider his power numbers could go up playing in CBP.
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What’s Trumbo have that Ruf don’t? Ruf plays OF and 1B just as bad, has the same power #’s, and over a full season would most likely get on base more.
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I don’t see Ruf as an every day player and think he’s much more valuable in the role John Mayberry Jr. currently serves.
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Plus, having him on the bench along with Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis make the Phillies a much deeper team than frankly they’ve been in awhile.
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Incompetant backup center fielder? Yeah, that’s Darin Ruf, alright.
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Actually I think Domo would slide over to CF if need be and Ruf patrols the corners in that back-up role.
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That’d be Hernandez.
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Correct…forgot about his two month or so stint in CF this year, and seem to get more comfortable the more he played out there.
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I was calling Mayberry an incompetant backup CF. Trying to be funny. Sorry.
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Revere will be the 4th OF.
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Papelbon, M. Franco and Adam Morgan for Tigers LF Nick Castellanos.
Then it will be Castellanos, Revere and Brown across the outfield.
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Trumbo is a better defender in the OF – or less bad, anyway – if you buy the defensive metrics. He strikes out a lot less often as well.
Not necessarily advocating for him, but he would be better than Ruf.
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He strikes out less, not a lot less. Trumbo Ks an awful lot and has done so long enough that it isn’t going to improve. The biggest thing Ruf has going for him is he’s cheap, however. Overall, I think Ruf likely hits as well as Trumbo.
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He also doesn’t take as many walks. Its a wash imo
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There’s also no redundancy here – there’s room for both Trumbo and Ruf on the roster. Trumbo is also cheap and should put up better power numbers in CBP. I’m not sure what the Phillies can offer in terms of pitching though. Biddle is too much IMO and there isn’t a whole lot in between that matches well. Pettibone, Dugan and another ML’er might get it done.
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Yeah, sure there’s technically room for Trumbo and Ruf but I think there is some redundancy because if you have both, one is limited to pinch hitting and spot duty and both are incredibly limited in the field and on the bases. I suppose that you could have one of those guys (Ruf I’m sure) replicating the old pinch hitter role, but it seems wasteful and it reduces roster flexibility. One of the interesting things to me is whether both Hernandez and Galvis make the team. I suspect they will but haven’t thought about how that will affect the entire bench. No MiniMart I suppose – that’s a plus!
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I think it’s necessary to have Darin Ruf on the bench given the recent injury history of Domonic Brown and Ryan Howard.
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If the price is Kyle Kendrick or Jonathan Pettibone and maybe a reliever i couldn’t see a reason not to do it. If the asking price was too high (which aparentely it was at the deadline) I’d move on… maybe to Bourjos and upgrade the defense.
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Phil’s may regret not offering qualifying offer. To. Ruiz. It. Was probably the only chance. They would have had for Ruiz to. Return. And. If he. Signed. Elsewhere. They. Would. Have. Received. Compensation. Guess. They. Felt. Ruiz. Was. Not. Worth a 14 million. $. risk
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Ruiz is not worth 14 million per year at this stage of his career – maybe 14 million over two years.
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This. If the Phillies gave Chooch a QO and he turned it down, he’d be a fool.
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Also I saw a post somewhere about the Rays possibly non tendering Matt Joyce. He might be an interesting guy to bring in as a bench piece to compliment Ruf (if Revere isn’t moved to a bench role).
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Leandro Castro resigned with a major league invite. Eye popping!!!!
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where did you see this
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That’s huge!!! You know what, why not that guy at this point. #freeleandrocastro’swildswing
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FYI – Roman Quinn apparently tore his achillies, he’ll probably miss all of next season.
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Just tweeted Roman hopefully he’ll respond and hope even more so that he’s achilles is fine.
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Do you have a source for that? I’d be curious to see what’s going on.
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What is your source Murray?
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Someone who knows him well. He was working out and running when he tore it.
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Say it aint so , what , when , how , sucks bigtime if this is for real
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That is really too bad, if it is true. Makes me feel better that I never go running.
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No evidence of any such injury from his tweets. (https://twitter.com/baseballswag4).
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‘Another OG’ (2hrs ago)….?????……..does that mean, ‘another o-fer game’?
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I suspect it’s old guy.
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Talked to Jiwan James yesterday, he said that he hasn’t heard that this happened and said he is good friends w Roman so he would have known by now.
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Well thats good news.
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Looks like where this was heard was from voices in the head.
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Nice……
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OG is also often commonly “Original Gangsta”
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Letting Ruiz go will be a major mistake.
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I am just reading about who the phillies might be interested in free agency this off season. One remark was with 120 already committed, they wont have a lot to spend. That isnt true is it? they can spend whatever they want, if they paid the tax, or am I wrong?
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You are correct. The Phils can spend their brain out but if they break through the limit, they should be confident they can reach the playoffs.
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You know, I see that comment about committed salaries – suggesting that belts will be tightened – and I’m mystified. The cap is $189 million now. This leaves the Phillies with almost $69 million capped dollars to fill a few big holes and a bunch of smaller holes. That’s not a lot of money? Are they out of their minds? That’s enough for 2 $20 million a year players and $29 million to spread among other slots. That’s a TON of money. I’m not saying it is wise to spend it all at this point, but there’s plenty of room to make one or more major upgrades if the right players are available.
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Remember the cap includes more than player salaries. The Phillies likely have closer to $60mm or a little less to spend.
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Greg Murphy did a pretty good breakdown yesterday.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/How-much-money-can-the-Phillies-spend-on-free-agents-A-long-answer.html
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I wonder if not giving Ruiz a QO is a sign they will be going after McCann and/or Saltamacchia.
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Giving Ruiz a QO would be insane. He’s worth a lot to the Phils but not $14M. As someone said above, maybe a 2 year $14M. McCann will probably go to an AL team so he can DH a few days a week. I think the Phils will watch the Ruiz market and come in late to make a slightly better offer. They have to have a plan B though, in case someone makes him an offer he can’t refuse and the Phils can’t match. Maybe keep John Buck on speed dial (Yikes!!!).
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Apparently, according to CSN, the Rockies are leaning towards signing Ruiz and moving Rosario to 1b to replace the retired Todd Helton.
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Navarro is more likely to me
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I got ripped yesterday by an anon for suggesting the 30-year old Dioner Navarro, who actually has some pop for hitter- friendly CBP.
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Navarro isn’t really a starting catcher, well unless you are hurting for a C and/or have no options. Carlos Ruiz is better pretty much across the board even in the power department (even at his age I’d take him over Navvaro). Also Ruiz is one of the best game callers in baseball. He’d be my 4th or 5th choice this off season (at the C position, just my opinion).
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Not a starting catcher? I don’t agree. I’m not saying he’s a star but he’s a solid catcher who had a good year with the bat this year hitting 300 I believe. Defensively he’s fine also. I really dislike Salty who has no NL experience and was benched in the WS for a journeyman catcher (Ross). I’m ok with resigning Chooch for 2 years but I wouldn’t go any longer.
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Navarro is a career backup who had one average and two poor years as a starter.. He is coming off of a career year and hasn’t been a starter in four. From all I heard his defense and game calling are okay but not to the level of Ruiz. I’m not sure there is much more to Navarro that there isn’t there to Rupp except worse defense and a longer track record. There are probably a half dozen free agent catchers I’d go after before Navarro.
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And how many career years did Chooch have and at what age?
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Wait… you’re holding the fact that he hasn’t been in the NL as a negative against Salty, but you ignore the fact that Navarro has been mediocre in the NL..?
One year people. One year he was “good.” Lots of mediocre players have one good year. Even more so have a good 89 games…
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Yeah sounds like McCann is heading to the AL where he can eventually become a DH. Smart move for him.
Saltammacchia is below average defensively and has worse career numbers than Howard against LHs. No thanks. I’d much rather have Ruiz (or if not, a stop gap solution).
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Yuck MLB Trade Rumors predicts us getting: Nelson Cruz, RickY Nolasco, Mujica
Hope they are wrong. (they predict Garza to the Nats).. only positive in that is maybe it leads to Amaro’s departure in the next few years.
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for what it is worth.. Keith Law posted an article on ESPN listing his top 50 free agents. Cruz was 23rd on his list, Nolasco was 7th, and Mujica was not in the top 50. Garza is 11th on Law’s list.
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An additional comment: I recall some conversation last week around what Garza would command. Law predicts the following: “Assuming the 2012 elbow issue or 2013 lat strain don’t cause him to flunk a physical, he’s a three-year deal candidate in the $12 million to $14 million a year range.”
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I think Nolasco is an ideal #3/#4 for us. I’d add him to the rotation in a heartbeat. Especially when you factor is salary won’t break the bank.
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I wouldn’t want them to sign Mujica, and don’t think they will. Cruz and Nolasco are both decent targets. I can see the downside, but they are guys who will at least keep the team from being horrible at little long term cost to the franchise.
I get the argument that the team should either go all out and try to make the playoffs, or “tank,” but don’t really buy the argument. Moreover, I think realistically the franchise is not going to go to either extreme in the short term, and, if the strategy is “improve the team a little without TOO much long term cost,” then Nolasco and Cruz are very defensible targets.
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Cruz costs a draft pick, is old, and not a game changer. I pass. Mujica? It depends on cost, doesn’t it? He’s a good pitcher, only 29, doesn’t walk guys. I guess he’ll be overpaid, as closers are and we already spend too much on the pen, but I won’t deny he’d be a nice guy to have in our pen. Nolasco would be a great, no-comp get. Like Garza, probably fairly expensive. He was really up in 2013, so it is a case of buy high. If you get his 2012 or 2011, not so good. Garza is a little younger. I’d like us to sign one of these two non-comp pitchers or Tanaka. If we have money to spend, let’s add a player, without surrendering talent or a draft pick.
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Well, we agree on Nolasco, and really Mujica too (I say pass because of the expected price, not because I wouldn’t want him).
I hear what you’re saying on Cruz. And you might be right. Two arguments on the other side, one substantive, one … well, let’s just say an “it could be worse” argument:
(1) They have a pretty huge hole in one corner OF spot with no clear way to fill it. If you believe, as I do, that maintaining some level of competitiveness even in a rebuilding year is important, then Cruz is a (relatively) low cost way to add 2 to 3 wins.
(2) In light of #1, the team is going to do SOMETHING to address the problem. I’d rather see Cruz than overpaying for one of the few better free agents out there, or, even worse,, trading prospects for a veteran (e.g., Cuddyer). That is, it could be worse. (Or they could let the situation fester, then next year, with perhaps a first round pick on the line, dip into the FA market.)
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The flip side of having to pay a comp pick for Cruz is that it will probably make his contract more team favorable. Of course, the opposite is true of Nolasco/Garza, as I think you recognize.
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That’s true. I am expecting to win enough games next year to not have a protected first rounder.
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How do you feel about Joe Smith of the Indians?
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that is who they will sing and I like it
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I dont comment often but I have been pushing for Garza to be our #3 and Dioner Navarro to catch for 2 years until Knapp is ready. Greg Murphy has me wanting Granderson after todays article. Sign Garza, Navarro and Granderson. Trade Revere to SD for that reliever Luke? or something similar. Also, sign a top notch set up guy and take a look at Madson if healthy. Love this time of year!
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But if you only are looking for a cacther for 2 years (which I agree is the way to go) why not sign Ruiz? He’s a better player, and likley will be for the next 2 years. I can’t imagine the extra $$$ would prohibitive for the Phils unless they plan on a reckless spending spree elsewhere.
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i dont think he is better…he is on decline although he had a good second half the adderall is still a question for me…also they need need change for change sake…i know i will get killed for that but sometimes you have to stir the pot
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The one position I am adamantly against change for change sake is catcher. A lot of baseball is about comfort, and in no place is it more evident than the pitcher catcher relationship. The Phillies are spending over $40 million on Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels combined, if they like throwing to Chooch, I am giving them Chooch to throw to, because if he can make them consistent 6 win players than a few million here and there of overpay is worth it.
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I agree Ruiz is a great receiver…however the last thing i want from last years bunch is comfort…nobody should feel comfortable with the last two underperforming years…Lee and Hamels are Aces…they will be ok
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But did Ruiz underperform during the last two years? He had the best year of his career in 2012. This year, he had a good spring then was suspended, came back for 2 weeks and got hurt, and then came on strong at the plate in August and September with a noticeable effect on the team’s defense. Now he does seems to miss more time to injury than he used to so I would say that is my only concern with him moving forward.
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I m sorry but I cant overlook Aderall season…baseball decided to suspend him for 50 games for breaking rules…so his best year of his career has a huge asterik…again I wont mind if he does come back because his last two months were encouraging its just not my preference.
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25 games. And adderall isn’t a PED. It’s an amphetamine.
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Strictly interpreting the phrase Performance Enhancing Drug and noting that Adderal will provide a lot of extra energy to the person taking it (unless they legitimately have ADHD, in which cae it calms). I would call Adderal a PED for an athlete playing 130+ days a year.
Honestly, it may be more fair to call that a PED than some Steroids and supplements that get lumped in without much evidence of efficacy.
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i said he was suspended for breaking the rules…this conversation feels like the ones i have with my wife
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You sign the players that give you the best chance to win- stirring the pot has no vlaue in that equation. If you think he is a better player, then by all means sign him. I prefer Ruiz but a case could be made for Navarro I guess
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I am going to give an off wall arguement, that may only be relevant to me and my son because we watched movie Miracle last night. Herb Brooks did not take some of the best players because they did not fit his team concept. This core won five years ago and Amaro has decided on keeping Rollins, Utley, Howard…I am totally ok with shaking up core and Ruiz is a free agent so its easier…i wont be heartbroken if they resign him but we have to move in a different direction
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Baseball is a different sport where on-field cohesion is less imprtant than in hockey, but even so, Utley is the epitomoe fo a team player. Plus signing Utley was an absolute no brainer from a performance standpoint as there is no one available (Canu excepted but he was never coming) that could match his likely production over the next few years. Now I would probably agree that Rollins is less so, but he really isn’t the problem- at worst he is a durable major league average SS at the plate and an above average fielder and his contract is actually pretty reasonable based on that production. Howard is a completely different situation (at best average offense with below average defense/base running with horrible contract value).
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I agree baseball and hockey are different. However, a team is a team and chemistry is important. I was totally ok with Utley, Rollins and even to a lesser point the Howard signing. However, when a certain way isnt working things must change. I dont know where you stand on the whole sabre thing but what that doesnt account for is hunger, heart, attitude, chemistry, etc. Things have to change maybe Ruiz isnt a start maybe he is. But he isnt under contract so of those 4 he isnt most logical choice to start.
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You are assuming that the team isn’t winning because it has bad chemistry- and you cite players that were also on the 20o7-2011 teams to make your point. I think the team is losing because Amaro has yet to replace the on field production of Werth, Victorino, or Polanco (or the bullpen for that matter).
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you are assuming that i am assuming…i didnt say they are losing because of bad chemistry…i said chemistry is needed…im not in locker room so i have no idea what the chemistry is like…facts are the last two years havent worked and change is needed…maybe a Navarro comes in hungry maybe he doesnt…not my call…all im saying is Ruiz is a guy/ position that is available to change…i would say same thing if Rollins ? Howard were a free agents…not Chase as i think he should retire a Phillie…Rollins is close to that same status.
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I can see ‘chemistry’ arguments for trading Rollins and even Howard. Utley? Seems a role model. The pitchers like pitching to Ruiz. To me, signing or not signing Ruiz comes down to $ and especially years. I’d overpay to limit to 2 years. $18 mill over 2 years? Not my money, but not sure I want to go over that. Chemistry is over-rated. The Phillies have been losing, because they haven’t had enough healthy talent and because they refuse to platoon a Ryan Howard who was too hurt to be playing everyday and can’t hit LHP at all, and because they permit Rollins to keep hitting like he is still a power hitter. The Phillies lost 2013 on merit, not because they lacked that elusive chemistry. Looked at, position by position, they just weren’t all that good.
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I also follow the Tigers and I wouldn’t want Grandy if he paid us $14mm. He just got a QO, which mean you give up a Draft pick for him. On top of that he isn’t a very good hitter and his OBP usually hovers around .320. Sure he has power, but he’s also on the back 9, I’m not entirely sure he isn’t just a faster Adam Dunn at this point.
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our pick is protected
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Not the Second Rounder, which is still a damned good pick.
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good point was only looking at 1st
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I should clarify I’m not dead set against giving up that Second Rounder. If that gets you Ellsbury or an All-Star caliber player, sure I’ll take that over the gamble that a draft pick is, but for a guy like Granderson (or last year’s Lohse or Swisher), no thank you.
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I don’t want to lose our 2nd pick for Grandy and I don’t expect them to sign Elsbury.
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I dont comment often but I have been pushing for Garza to be our #3 and Dioner Navarro to catch for 2 years until Knapp is ready. Greg Murphy has me wanting Granderson after todays article. Sign Garza, Navarro and Granderson. Trade Revere to SD for that reliever Luke? or something similar. Also, sign a top notch set up guy and take a look at Madson if healthy. Love this time of year!
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sorry about 2x post
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Is Garza, Chris Young, Chooch or Navarro, and a reliever a reasonable haul?
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It’s a reasonable haul. It provides a pitcher and presumably a reliever beyond 2014 and 2015. It isn’t enough to get the Phillies to post-season in 2014, but it helps us without mortgaging the future.
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I really hope we can do better than Chris Young. I don’t think he will see 20HR/20SB again and .235/.315/.431 is hardly inspiring.
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i agree need more than Young as an OF upgrade.
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Am I alone in wanting to see Grant Balfour in Phillies pinstripes??? No QO, he’ll cost some dough….but he’s a “young” 35 and has been lights OUT the last 3 or 4 seasons. As for OF’ers….what about Mike Morse??? You could argue he over-achieved 2 years ago and maybe be right. You could also argue that last year was an abberation…just “one of those years” (pressure, crap team, who knows)…I contend the real Mike Morse would be a hit in Philly and in CBP. He could probably be had for a 2 or 3 year deal and for less than he was making before.
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You aren’t alone half-baked, though I suspect someone with Balfour’s recent track record would get a closing gig somewhere. Still, there appears to be more closers on the market than vacancies for them to fill. Would love to have Balfour but I suspect he’ll be out of our price range. Joe Smith for Cleveland would be a good alternative and for a much lesser price tag.
As for Morse, I mentioned him a number of times here in the past month or so. Considering that everything has to fall into place perfectly for the Phils to make the playoffs in 2014, I would like to see them target pieces that can be moved at the trade deadline next year. Morse is one, Josh Johnson (no. 1 on my list) is another good example, as is Curtis Granderson (though he’d be wise to accept the QO from the Yanks), Chris Perez and Ryan Madson. All of these players can be had for a reasonable price and should one or more rebound, they would be very attractive to teams competing for the playoffs next year.
We could put a competitive team on the field next year while still taking a tactical approach for return to the playoffs in 2015 and perhaps pick up some prospects at next summer’s trade deadline.
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Offensively I think Morse is worth a gamble, but the problem is that defensively you’re talking about someone who is on the same level as Darin Ruf.
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There’s nothing you’re going to get from Morse that Ruf couldn’t give you for less money. Morse is probably worse in the field than Ruf, who is actually improving. Ruf is also younger.
The more I think about it, the more I think the Phillies should package Revere and a younger pitcher to the Angels for Bourjos, who I think will have a huge breakout season next year and is superfast, a better fielder than Revere with more power. He has been injured so his value is down and he’s at the perfect age for a breakout and he’s a righty. This combined with the fact that the Angels are hungry for pitching means that the Phils might be able to trade him straight up (without Revere) for Kendrick and a second tier minor leaguer (Lino? Dugan?). I’d trade for Bourjos, sign Beltran for two years (he won’t be perfect but he’ll be a hell of a lot better than anyone they could get who is affordable), sign Garza and add a strong reliever. These moves would improve the team enormously, and would be affordable ($13 million for Beltran, $16 million for Garza, $6-7 million for a reliever – giving the team flexibility to pick up a big contract mid year). By the way, if the team could find a way to add Tommy Joseph and Adam Morgan to the trade, they might also pick up Hank Conger, thereby potentially solving another problem. There are many ways to fix up this roster, now it’s up to Ruben to get it done.
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I agree that there are many ways to fix the roster, I just see it as no less than a 2-yr plan. The risk of trying to fix it this season is that the team ends up mediocre or worse in 2014 and we are having this same exact discussion next fall. I’ll pass on Garza and Beltran. Neither are probable signings anyway and the latter is becoming a defensive liability himself. We need RH power and Ruf alone certainly isn’t the answer. Add Morse for next to nothing one a one-year deal and you have two righties with power to play first and LF against lefties. The caveat of course that Howard needs to sit the 30-40 games that we face a lefty starter.
I do like Bourjos though as he fits the mold of players I described above – players who can possibly be moved at next year’s Trade deadline, or perhaps we makes an impression and becomes part of our longer term solution
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In my scenario, Beltran moves to left, where he should be just fine. Bourjos plays center and Brown moves to right. Revere probably gets traded. Ruf is a back-up and Hernandez (should be okay in center with another half season under his belt) and Brown also can play center. Mayberry might still be on the team (yahoo) so that’s more depth in center.
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The fact that Darin Ruf played 29 games in RF last year to Brown’s 2 (after already running D. Young out there) should put to rest any idea that Brown will ever be a regular rightfielder for this team.
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Jimmy Rollins evidently spilt the beans in September when he said in an interview about the future, Brown will start the season in RF in 2014.
Why would he come out and say something like that if he wasn’t al;ready clued into it by either Brown or Sandberg?
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The refusal of the Phillies to move Dom Brown to right field last year seemed to be based on the belief that it could affect his hitting, which had reached an All Star level. Whether or not this was the best course of action is debatable, but it shouldn’t be an impediment to Brown playing right field this year if he is doing it from Day 1 in Spring Training.
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Bourjos is a good name and a Kendrick trade is a pretty good idea, although it leaves us needing two starters. But an OF with Brown in RF and Beltran in LF would be terrible defensively. Beltran was a terrible defender this year and the consensus seems to be he needs to sign a a DH. Brown was awful in LF this year so a move to RF would make him even more of a liability (yes, he has a good arm, but his bad routes would be even more exposed in RF).
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catch…good idea and agree on getting Peter B…..and do see the Angels wanting and needing pitchers, but do not see the Angels wanting Revere. Probably have to substitue someone else…..Jerry Dipoto naturally would ask for M Franco or Asche and have to convince him to take a Galvis, Hernandez or Ruf.
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We are underselling Kendrick a bit because we’ve been spoiled by great pitching for several years. Kendrick is a solid #4 – a huge upgrade for a crappy Angels rotation. The Phils would have to add a young prospect, but it would be worth it to get Bourjos, a guy you could keep in centerfield for years.
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Yes I see your point on Kendrick if Ruben is willing to include him in the trade. Kendrick alone for Bourjos, one-for one, is a real possibilty.
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Minor League Free Agents:
First-round picks from the 2007 draft who aren’t on 40-man rosters qualify for minor league free agency for the first time this offseason. The list includes, in order of selection six years ago, first baseman Matt LaPorta (Indians), reliever Casey Weathers (Cubs), third baseman Kevin Ahrens (Blue Jays), righthander Tim Alderson (Orioles), lefty Nick Schmidt (Rockies) and righty James Simmons (Athletics).
Full list: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/minor-league-free-agents-2013/
Philadelphia Phillies
RHP: Gabriel Arias (Hi A), Justin Friend (AAA), Mike MacDougal (AAA), Juan Sosa (AA)
LHP: Bobby Bramhall (AA), Tom Cochran (AAA), Mauricio Robles (AAA), Greg Smith (AAA)
C: John Suomi (AAA), Shawn Williams* (AA)
2B: Matt Tolbert (AA)
3B: Josh Fields (AAA)
SS: Miguel Abreu (AAA), Andres Blanco* (AAA)
OF: Derrick Mitchell (AAA)
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Will D Mitchell come back for another year? I’m guessing he won’t. With Castro signing, they have him, Gillies, Hewitt, maybe Collier plus Susdorf ahead of D Mitch.
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Re: Roman Quinn
This from Jim Salisbury at http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/good-news-bad-news-2-phillies-prospects
“Some good news and some bad news from the Phillies’ minor-league system:
The good: Catcher Tommy Joseph, fully recovered from a concussion that cost him most of the 2013 season, is headed to Latin America to play in the Dominican winter league.
The bad: Shortstop Roman Quinn has ruptured his right Achilles tendon and will be out of action indefinitely.
Joe Jordan, the Phillies’ director of player development, said Quinn ruptured his Achilles tendon running sprints during an offseason workout near his home in Florida.”
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Unreal. Our Pharm can’t afford these injuries. Hopefully Joseph can get back on track next season and without any lingering effects. For Quinn, devastating injury from a developmental POV
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Everyone owes Murray an apology – he was dead on right.
I’ll say this, when somebody we know on this site says something truly factual about a player or observes something in person, consider it. I recall that in ST this year, one of our posters said that he saw Ryan Howard get out of a car and he was hobbling around and it troubled him. As it turns out, he was on to something that others didn’t know for months.
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I will kinda say sorry, sorry. I wonder if Jiwan James didn’t know or just didn’t want to say anything (I spoke w him about it) and Salisbury tweeted me back today confirming it, should have told him about Murray as a source for future breaking news haha.
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I actually emailed Saiisbury and told him to talk to the Phils….
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Murray was just the messenger….and we do not kill the messengers! (tic)
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Bernie Pleskoff on Ken Giles:
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131105&content_id=63689572&c_id=phi&partnerId=ed-7713443-619586363
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Craig Calcaterra reports: Hire Stats Man—Scott Freedman
A year and change after Ruben Amaro derided statistical analysis, the Phillies have finally hired a stats guy. His name is Scott Freedman, who until now had ben working for Major League Baseball’s Labor Relations Department. He did arbitration cases, where being able to marshal statistical evidence is useful thing.
Now the question is whether Amaro will truly listen to him and make him part of the decision making process. Or if one guy hired now will be able to stand up to other teams which have scads of these guys who have been in place for years. Because based on Amaro’s recent comments on the matter, it sounds like Freedman could be out on an island and only a minor part of the Phillies’ player evaluation process.
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Being able to marshal statistical evidence in an arb case is hardly the same thing as using advanced stat analysis to help determine which players your team should and which they should trade away. No evidence that this guy has ever done any work related to using stats to improve a team or improve its acquisition of amateur talent. What’s he going to say, beyond ‘this is what I think our arb offer should be to our players’.
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I’ve not heard of any statistical analysis being done to help in the amateur draft or in international signings. This remains primarily the domain of the scouts.
I think that statistical analysis can be a big help in evaluating minor league and major league talent. Here, however, I think we can distinguish between being able to use available data and being able to create proprietary data to gain an edge against the competition.
It is possible that the new guy knows how to use the available data and can educate the FO on how to better evaluate players when it comes to trades, making contract offers and signing free agents. If so, he could be very valuable to the Phillies, and he doesn’t have to be a quant.
If the Phils start making greater use of statistics and like the results, at some point they make recognize the desirability of doing customized analyses and developing their own proprietary statistical data base to do some baseball arbitrage. For this type of work, they would need a quant, indeed a staff of quants. The Phillies’ FO is not ready for this type of analysis, and it would be unreasonable to expect them to jump in with both feet right from the get-go.
The Astros are a good example of a team that is doing sophisticated statistical analysis. One of their hires was BP’s Mike Fast, who has been measuring hard contact as a way to determine pitcher effectiveness. The Astros are one team that is not forced to look at crappy data like FIP and its derivatives in determining how to build a pitching staff.
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Teams have certainly used stats to evaluate college talent in the draft. That was the original Moneyball premise. I agree, it is less likely to work as well, or at least to work the same way, for HS and LA kids. I think a mega-stat review of HS and LA talent would still be worthwhile, to answer questions such as: how should we weight the various tools, what is important to screen for in physical size. BA had a simple study talking about the difference in drafting/evaluating older vs younger HS kids — something the Phillies should have considered when the drafted a very old HS kid named Hewitt in round one. With various HS kids in the draft being over 12 months apart in age, age differences matter. I think the Phillies give too much emphasis to speed and raw power and not enough to hit tool. Stat analysis could shed some light on this. There are a lot of rather mundane questions that stat analysis could answer: in general are pitchers, IF, catchers, OF the greater bargains among LA, HS, college kids? Taking the scouting reports we get from our scouts in the field, which scouts and cross-checkers recommend the highest and lowest percentage of guys who succeed?
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At least the other part of what Salisbury said was positive. Joseph cleared and ready to catch.
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I hope that Tommy Joseph has anti concussion padding in his helmet for the rest of his playing career.
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Chooch surely raised his value over the final few months of the season. During the summer I felt he could be had for something in the neighborhood of 2yrs at 7mil AAV. But isn’t his good second half a good thing – even if it costs more to retain him? I’d say certainly ‘yes’. I’m thinking 2yrs with an option and AAV of 8-9mil could still get it done. More than I initially wanted to pay but I don’t buy recent reports that he can get 10mil or more per year. Certainly not from the Rockies. McCann looks like a great fit for the Yankees and Salty is in play for the Sox – so where exactly is this big offer coming from for Chooch? Any thoughts on what it takes to resign Chooch (or if you feel we shouldn’t at all)? I’m guessing 2 years, 17mil, with a 3rd year option at 8mil.
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2 years at $17-18 million, with a team option for a third year, is barely acceptable. Unfortunately, their hands are tied a little bit with a bad free agent market and younger catchers that are not ready. Is it just me or does this team have really bad timing on contracts?
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I’m not so sure catch. McCann, Saltalamacchia, Pierzynski, Navarro are each likely to targeted by teams in need of cathing and Ruiz probably falls right in the middle of that group. IMO, take the Rockies out of the picture despite recent reports as I find it highly unlikely that they would commit more than 7-8 mil to Ruiz, if that. I’m also considering it likely that Chooch accepts a “solid” offer from the Phils even if it’s not necessarily the highest offer. What do you think he gets if better than a $8.5 mil AAV?
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I’m more concerned about being forced into a 3 year deal with an $8.5 mil AAV.
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‘……..so where exactly is this big offer coming from for Chooch?.
Colorado Rockies will offer soon.
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” but I don’t buy recent reports that he can get 10mil or more per year. Certainly not from the Rockies.”
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Yeah, likely a rumor started by his agent to light a fire under RAJ and extract a few extra $ millions. RAJ is notorious for getting conned into bidding against himself.
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Sadly true
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People remember a great end of the season for Ruiz, which never happened. Yes, he had a great August, with OPS over .900. In almost as many AB, his OPS in September plummeted to .599. The good memories are reinforced by the Phillies winning games in August. With the collapse of Ruiz’s bat in Sept. came the collapse of the Phillies winning. For a guy who didn’t play a lot in 2013, it seemed that Ruiz tired mentally or physically come September. Maybe that’s where the Adderall used to come into play. I suspect that whomever signs Ruiz for big $$ is in for initial joy turning to vast disappointment by season end.
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Allentown I somewhat agree on your assessment of Ruiz. I like Chooch and am grateful for his career in Philly, but IMO at 35-years old and the way things transpired since March, I think the Phillies would be wise to move on.
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MLB trade rumors just released a bunch of probable non-tendered players http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/non-tender-candidates.html
certainly some interesting names that could help…I’d be ALL OVER Johnny Venters and just keep up with the TJ rehab. Also Daniel Bard seems like a “need a fresh start” kind of guy…killer stuff and is best as a RP. Tyler Flowers might be a useful Catcher. Venters was really the only name that jumped out…certainly no one to wet your pants over.
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Did Venters have an arm/shoulder issue this year?
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Jonny Venters had a mixed bag year this year. His WHIP at 1.5 and H/9 and BB/9 were not very good. His K/9 was outstanding. Not sure to make of him at thios point going into his 29-age season. He may have had some injury problems.
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Oops, just saw where you mentioned his TJ rehab from the surgery.
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I see Tommy Hanson on the list. If he has anything left in the tank I’d take a chance on him as the fifth and move KK in a trade. Perhaps to get a Peter Bourjus as talked about a few days ago.
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Carlos Ruiz signs w the Rockies. 3yr 24m
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Did you make that up?
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looks like a false rumor
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It was posted on Phillies Nation but has since been removed.
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Ryan Lawrence writes today:
‘…..after 5 full weeks of exclusive negotiating time with Ruiz since the season ended, the Phils were unable to keep him off the open market. “It happens all the time,” Amaro said. “The player wanted to exercise his right to be a free agent. What our intentions and their intentions are, I hope they remain the same. But they want to explore the market and drive up the price as much as they can. It’s exactly what all free-agent players and their agents do, pretty much.”
—sounds like Chooch is going somewhere else.
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I’m starting to wrap my mind around the team getting Salty on a 3 or 4 year deal. It probably does make some sense. He’s a swtich hitter and while he’s bad against lefties, you can mitigate that by starting the back up on some days that a tough lefty is on the mound. And I like his power and the fact that he’s really maturing as a hitter and he’s still very young. This could actually be quite a good strategic sign and NO DRAFT COMPENSATION. It will probably mean, however, that the team has to find somebody in the outfield who can bat right handed (Beltran?). The team could do a hell of a lot worse than signing Salty, Beltran and someone like Garza and a solid reliever.
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Lester didn’t like throwing to Salty so that gives me pause. Love the Idea of bringing Beltran in. Hell give him the Ibanez special…
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Signing Beltran would surprise me, its not the kind of move that RAJ makes. I still think he wants to add an outfielder who can run and play defense and hit a little. KK for Bourjos could have some merit on both sides as long as the Phils know they have to sign a good pitcher to sit in that 3rd spot and another pitcher to compete for the 5th spot.
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Not to be quarrelsome, but I think bringing in Beltran is EXACTLY the type of move Ruben makes. He brings in guys with some historical track of success about 3-4 AFTER their prime. Hello Raul Ibanez, Michael Young, Ty Wigginton, shall I go on? Fortunately, I think Beltran is a lot more inherently talented than those guys and could piece together a couple more good years (2-4 WAR) – certainly better than their other alternatives and likley worth the price and almost essential to balance the line-up especially if they acquire more lefty players. I’d love Bourjos, however, I think he could be the trade steal of the offseason. If it costs Kendrick and Revere, git ‘er done!
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CF speed and defense…then go for right-hand bat Drew Stubbs with no compensation
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I’m not a Bourjos fan. Those who like him seem to dream on his speed and defense which is fine if you need a 4th OF. I like Beltran first then I may consider taking a flier on Hart. I don’t know his health situation but he is only 31 and has a career OPS of .824 from the right side. Hit 31-26-30 HR’s his last 3 seasons. Plays a really good corner OF and can throw and can play some 1B.
Let’s address what this team has missed since JW left…RH OPS.
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Salty better get a haircut before he steps onto CBP, thats all I say!
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I prefer defense/game calling/throwing over offense in my catcher. When you have a guy like Posey or Mauer it’s insane in my opinion to keep them behind the plate. Yadier would be the exception I guess.
Chooch kind of fit that role perfectly so I’ll be sorry if he goes but Rupp seems capable enough.
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I don’t know, a big part of the reason they are valuable is that they are giving you offensive value from THAT position. Mauer’s a lot less valuable when he plays first or DH.
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I look at this way if he is in the middle of your line-up you can’t afford to miss his bat from the line-up and as concussion awareness continues to grow you are going to start seeing more and more catchers missing games due to that inury. I mean did you see Avilles for the Tigers in that playoff game.
You are only saying Mauer is less valuable because he doesn’t hit HR’s but the rest of his numbers play any where on the diamond.
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No, I’m only saying that he has less value as a first baseman than he does as a catcher. As a catcher, he’s probably about another 2-3 WAR more valuable – that’s a $10-15 million difference anually, a crap load of value. He’s good enough of a hitter to play first and DH, but his relative value is not as high there. I don’t think it’s a controversial point.
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John Buck might be a decent target and a good mentor for a guy like Cameron Rupp. Obviously we’d be weaker at the position but he offers right handed power at an affordable rate and should rake in our park.
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Buck is an attractive power bat from the right side but these days, he will only give you about 110/120 games behind the plate. Rupp and/or Kratz will have to pick up the remaining games. Now if Buck, Rupp and Kratz could handle part-time back-up work at first base that would surely be a plus..
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I’d be pretty bummed out if John Buck were our starter. No offense to Mr. Buck, but he’s the kind of guy who regularly starts for second division teams. Teams that make the playoffs almost NEVER have starting catchers like John Buck, at least absent a very strong platoon.
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I think if the team used the savings on other areas we could survive with him in the 7th or 8th spot in the line up.
I like him better than Navarro personally as he at least adds a leader for some of our younger catchers in spring training and maybe even during the season and he also adds right handed power. Not my first choice, my first choice would be Ruiz on a 2 year deal but if Salty commands a deal higher than 4 years $36 million (thats about as high as I would go) I think this could be a better option.
By upgrade in other areas, I should clarify, I mean signing a #3 and maybe a #4 as well as both a Corner Outfielder and a Center Fielder and possibly trading Revere or using him as a 2007 Michael Bourn type player.
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I’d take Buck as a back up (which we don’t need) nothing more nothing less. He hasn’t had an OPS touch .700 in like 4 years and his age isn’t a friend of his. B
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Would you all take the gamble on Kemp? Supposedly, he can be had.
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Well it all depends on cost… but assuming the Dodgers kick in no money, I wouldn’t give back any real prospects for him. That contract can get ugly FAST.
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As long as it didn’t take Franco and they possibly took on another bad contract (Papelbon?).
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I would def take Kemp, just trying to think who I’d offer . . . I know that my off limit guys would be Franco and JP, would try to not include Biddle either.
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Considering Kemp’s injury history and status I think Roman Quinn being one of the major pieces is more than fair.
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Couldn’t trade JP even if Ruben wanted to at this point.
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Actually it’s not that far from being able to include him as a PTBNL. You can’t trade a player until 1 year after they signed their first pro contract, but you can designate a player as a PTBNL and then make it official once they reach that 1 year. The PTBNL portion of a trade needs to be completed within 6 months of making the trade. Since JP Crawford signed his pro contract on June 18th I believe. That means he’s eligible be a PTBNL in any trade made Dec 18th or later.
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If we are taking on his entire contract, would we have to give up anything? I look at the situation as, no one would sign him anywhere close to that type of contract on the open market today… then why would you both have to grossly overpay $ and also give up prospects.
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I don’t think the dodgers will trade him that way. They’ll pick up some of the money to gets prospect back. If the Phils don’t require much money back, I’m guessing it will cost a high prospect and a medium one like Biddle and Giles. It’s a huge risk but one with terrific upside. A healthy Kemp or even 80% healthy would look awfully good in that lineup. If you trade for him and he’s not healthy, it would prevent any other free agents. Take the risk? I’d probably still sign a guy like Chris Young as our 4th of and keep revere.
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I know this isn’t about a Phillies prospect but I found this interesting.
Mark Hendrickson LHP
1992 – 13th Round by the Braves
1993 – 21st Round by the Padres
1994 – 32nd Round by the Braves
1995 – 16th Round by the Tigers
1996 – 19th Round by the Rangers
1997 – 20th Round by the Blue Jays
Drafted 6x finally signing with the Blue Jays. I wonder if there’s another player in baseball who has been drafted this many times. Thought this was interesting.
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Don’t forget, drafted in 1996 by the 76ers in the 2nd round. He played a few years in the NBA and in the minors at the same time. I think he might be one the last two sport guys. Someone should write a book about the guy someday.
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Did you know 15 minutes can save you 15 percent or more on car insurance with Geico.
Yes, everbody knows that.
Yes, but did you know Pat Burrell has more World Series rings then hits in the World Series.
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Bronson Arroyo appears to be the latest to catch Ruben’s fancy.
Really, is this because he comes cheaper then some of the name guys!
How much better is Arroyo then KK?
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Arroyo is way old, but his results are a little better than Kendricks’, especially for 2013, and he has put up two pretty good back to back season. Basically, he seems to be an older Kendrick with fewer walks. If I’m going one year, I guess I’d pick Arroyo at the same $, more than that I’d go Kendrick.
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If they then go for Arroyo, why keep KK! And next year Pettibone will be further knocking on the door, then there is MAG and hopefully a healthy Morgan later in 2014.
Might as well package KK in a deal and get something for him….he is relatively young and will give you plenty of innings and stays healthy.
I am sure there are teams that could use him as a 4th/5th in the rotation.
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I really wonder what value kendrick would have. In my mind he could bring you back a bench player or a middle reliever, or maybe a double a prospect like a altheer, someone who has a chance,
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I like to think Kendrick in a package is more enticing to other teams, who are always looking for starting pitchers.
Catch suggested last week Kendrick and a prospect to the LAA for Peter Bourjus for CF which is an attractive idea….of course Ruben rarely has that thought creativity in his arsenal It is easier dropping some bucks on FAs or getting the older experienced skilled guys like Halladay, Lee and Oswalt for a multitude of prospects
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Phils about to ink Marlon Byrd on a 2 year deal http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Phillies_to_sign_Marlon_Byrd.html
I like Byrd as a player….and a 2 year deal is do-able……not too shabby considering what else is out there
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In addition to article sources, Rosenthal tweets it as on MLBTR. So, looks good.
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Sorry I did not know you posted this already as you just beat me to the post.
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Not sure if anyone else saw this but the Phillies have a agreement in place to sign Marlon Byrd. Not a bad signing as he saves a draft pick and he is healthier historically than Nelson Cruz.
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Yeah, this is a surprisingly smart signing.
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agreed….getting “younger” doesn’t always mean “better”….Byrd is a solid player and it will certainly help having a RHanded bat with pop in the OF
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hate to reply to myself….but it’s also worth mentioning that the Philly.com comments section is already filling up misanthropes and other folks lacking basic baseball sense. This website is a breath of fresh air
carry on
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A guy who will be entering his age 36 season who is a year removed from a .210/.243/..245 campaign. I’d pass. He is even less of an answer than Chris Young.
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Nice I really expected the Pirates to resign him. I predicted a 2yr/$16 for Byrd so I can’t wait to see where it comes in at.
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This is Amaro, he always feels the need to blow guys away in November, so I’m betting something like 2 years, $18 million with an incentive-based option for 2016. Keep in mind that unlike Nelson Cruz, Byrd didn’t have draft pick compensation attached, so he was an attractive commodity to other teams.
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Twitter says it’s 2 years, $16 million, so you were right. I’ll take the over on Amaro’s contracts any day, though.
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You nailed it. Reports are 2 years/$16 mil
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Sure: a free-swinging outfielder with PED issues who mysteriously put up the best OPS of his career last year at age 36? Netflix says that if you liked the movie “The Last Two Years of the Raul Ibanez Contract” you’re going to love Marlon Byrd.
In fairness, he’s a good defensive right fielder so long as he doesn’t deteriorate over his age 37-38 seasons (and hey, why would that ever happen)? There is one way that this could make sense, though, which is if they’re going to go for an big upgrade in CF (Granderson? Kemp?) and they anticipate using Revere in a 4th OF/RF platoon role.
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Wow Really? You really went there….
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As far as Byrd goes, his PED history is a matter of public record. Perhaps you’re objecting to the Ibanez comparison–that could be misinterpreted, to clarify, I didn’t mean to make any PED claims about Ibanez, just was saying that that he was old when he signed and coming off a contract year.
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Sorry, I meant to say “career year” in the last sentence.
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You are certainly not wrong to bring it up and I don’t object to it. The flip side is once you go down for a PED suspension you are tested out the wazoo so last year could not have been (IMO) a product of PED use.
To be fair you could have added Byrd was always a good hitter until he took a heater to the face and that quite possibly it took him a few years to get comfortable in the box again.
And that $16 is peanuts when you see what is about to go down with some of these other outfielders and Nelly Cruz. RH Pop is at a premium and I’m on record that Cruz will get something in the neighborhood of 4/$48.
As Plesac loves to say “the price of poker is going up!”
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What name do you use on philly.com? The move makes sense on the face of it, as the starter in RF, and not with the intent to platoon with Ben Revere. Despite some who go on here with the advanced defensive metrics deal, looks like they never look at them much, because Granderson has declined as a CF option lately and is now seen as more of a corner OF. And, what do you know, teams have actually played him more in the Corner OF positions as well. Forget trading for the oft-injured and high salaried Kemp, also. Media is starting to put out the rumor that there will be no high dollar signings or acquisitions, and the Byrd signing seems to indicate they are on the right track. Some, apparently , have not seen this or don’t believe it.
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If you think the trolls on Philly.com think this move is crazy, look at what Bill Baer is tweeting. Or the beat writers for that matter. I don’t think any of them are reflexive idiots. This is a big overpay for a guy who was playing in Mexico before the Mets rescued him on a deal near the major league minimum last year. I mean, I suppose it’s possible he’ll put up an OPS above .800 next year, as he did last year–the best season of his career. But there’s no doubt that this is a substantial bet on a player who seems like a textbook candidate for substantial regression.
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It shall be seen, but, considering the other alternatives, which might have cost twice or more as much, also for a questionable result, I’ll go with this as a start, even though there is a possibility he reeks for the next two years. But, since his last season was good, i think he can roll with that a couple of years as well.
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Who cares what other people think? Let the two years play out then you can make a fair decision but not before that.
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Ok then: thanks for that observation about the futility of attempting to predict the future, commenter on the Phuture Phillies website.
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HaHa good call ACA
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Byrd can also play Center Field to give Revere a break but Byrd will probably play RF mostly. I don’t see a big outfield signing as they spend big dollars on starting pitching and keeping Chooch. I really don’t understand your viewpoint given what was out there and keeping our second round pick as no one said he is Willie Mays.
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My money is on pitching from here on out. I think they go
Revere
Rollins
Utley
Howard/Ruf
Brown/Byrd
Byrd/Brown
Asche
Ruiz (until he signs else where I believe he is back)
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