Baseball America Top 10 Phillies Prospects

Other Stuff

First go read the free version here http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-philadelphia-phillies-top-10-prospects/, and then if you give BA money go read the scouting reports here http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-philadelphia-phillies-top-10-prospects-with-scouting-reports/, and if you give them money read the chat transcript here http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-philadelphia-phillies-top-10-prospects-chat-with-josh-norris/.

For those lazy the Top 10 are:

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. Jesse Biddle
  3. JP Crawford
  4. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
  5. Roman Quinn
  6. Carlos Tocci
  7. Ethan Martin
  8. Cesar Hernandez
  9. Aaron Altherr
  10. Severino Gonzalez

Rather than give a word for word recap of all of these reports I am going to give my reactions and quick thoughts.

  • Franco’s scouting report is everything we have heard before; can stick at third but might not be great there, good power, good bat speed, aggressive approach, problems with breaking pitches, should arrive in mid to late 2014.
  • Ditto with Biddle and Crawford, both have good upside and some holes, but plenty of stuff to like.
  • No one knows what MAG will be, spring training will be interesting.
  • A lot of Quinn’s defensive problems have to do with throwing and the motion and transfer, all things worked on during his injury
  • Tocci apparently was already 10 lbs heavier than his opening day weight when he showed up to Fall Instructs, which is a good sign.
  • My Top 5 prospects are the same as this list if you take MAG out who I may not rank at all.
  • There is a huge drop off after Tocci
  • At this point Martin is what he think he is but BA thinks he could get another rotation shot if the offseason goes in certain ways
  • I don’t agree with Hernandez, but it is a fine line because there really is no place for him on a bench, he is either a starter or a fringe major leaguer and that is a large swing in value
  • If you aren’t ecstatic about Altherr on this list, you may not have a pulse.  The best part is they are labeling him a true CFer which takes a lot of pressure off the bat.
  • I thought BA glossed over a lot of Severino’s issues in this pair of sentences

  • He varies the velocity on his breaking balls to keep hitters off balance, but he’ll need the changeup after allowing lefthanded hitters to bat .309/.380/.404 against him in the FSL. His slight frame prompts questions about whether he can handle a starter’s workload.

  • I have a lot more concerns about the lack of changeup and the frame than Josh Norris did.  It is really the frame that will keep him low on my list.
  • Collier was essentially ranked the #11 prospect in the org, it will be interesting if that is true when the book comes out
  • Jose Pujols was rated as best OF arm, I like that a lot
  • I think the group of Revere, Asche, and Pettibone slotting between Crawford and Quinn is exactly where they should be, I also agree with Galvis over Hernandez

More thoughts to come later.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

100 thoughts on “Baseball America Top 10 Phillies Prospects”

  1. The only new piece I wasn’t aware of was that Biddle was pitching with Plantar Fascitis(sp?) at the end of the season.

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    1. BA is really, really, really big into tools. That’s why they like Zach Collier. The ranking is sort of ridiculous but fairly predictable.

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      1. Collier is probably going to be a little underrated this offseason. Compared to Dugan he is the exact same age, plays better defense in CF, and has both more speed and demonstrated a better BB rate in AA. Dugan has more power and I rank him a little higher, but the difference is not that much. Collier had a little bit of a bad year. But I could easily see him put up a 750 OPS in AAA next year and be in the majors by September. Think of it this way – His OPS after the all star break was 788 which is higher than Dugan (771).

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        2. “Collier had a little bit of a bad year.”

          The problem is that Collier has never had a good year. Last year he had an improved but mediocre at best year followed by what we appeared to be a break-out AFL that we hoped he would build on. He didn’t.

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          1. 733 OPS in CF at an age appropriate level last year was decent. Followed by a good AFL campaign. When players are relatively young for a level they usually don’t dominate. Collier also has other skills – defense and base running – that do not show up in OPS. Nobody is saying he is a great prospect and I like Dugan and Altherr a little more now. All I am saying is that he is not a complete non prospect. A little development and better BABIP luck and he is suddenly hitting .270 with 15 HR and 20 SB and a .750 OPS in AAA at age 23. That is not bad out of CF and might be as much as Cesar Hernandez could do there with better defense.

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            1. I’m not saying he’s non-prospect but I don’t think he should be the #11 prospect either. He’s more of a fringe prospect at this point. Unfortunately that describes too many of the Phillies prospects. I think a .270 15 HR 20 SB. would be projecting a large jump for him. His BABIP last year was close to average suggesting his low BA was not bad luck and considering his ISO topped out at.131 in the minors and was worse in hitter friendly Reading is not screaming 15 HR to me. Also his 25% K rate is also very concerning. If he is even in AAA next year it is hard to say he earned a promotion, but with Altherr, Perkins, and Dugan there is not a lot of room in Readings OF.

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            3. I am concerned with all of that as well, though if you look at his splits his second half would be in line with putting up a 750 OPS next year. It is also important that he still has the tools that say he could hit 15 HR. Those tools and the defense make him at least as good a prospect as Perkins (who is arguably a better hitter at this point). It is also what makes him a little better than a Leandro Castro type. His tools are just a little better across the board.

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        3. That strikes me as extremely optimistic. Even with his hot August, which was totally unrepresentative of his season, his OPS at Reading was only .658. In his ‘breakout’ season last year, really only half a season, he put up only a .732 OPS. That is his career best. The two years prior to that, he was below .700. Reading is a good power park and Collier only managed 8 HR. I think those who project 15-20 for him in the bigs are way optimistic. In person, he looks smaller than his listed size. He’s not at all a big guy. I’m just responding to your post as a convenient one, not criticizing your judgment, as I know you only rank Collier mid-twenties on your own prospect list — a ranking which I am quite comfortable with.

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          1. Basically agree with all that. Main point is that the tools do make higher level performance more possible. I guy like Leandro Castro with lesser tools is a little more likely to stall at higher levels. Collier was definitely disappointing last year. I guess my comments relate more as to whether they should keep him on the 40. I would lean towards trying to do that as long as it does not come at the expense of someone like Altherr.

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            1. I would agree that Collier has a higher ceiling than Castro, but I would protect Castro before Collier if the Phillies think they can get any use out of Castro as a 5th outfielder. I think Castro has shown enough that someone MIGHT take him in the rule 5 draft and he could contribute. I think it is highly unlikely anyone tries to hide Collier on their roster for a year. I see worrying about Collier being taken this year similar to the worries that Castro or Jiwan James would be taken the last couple of years.

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            2. Castro was a Minor League FA, and I saw someone comment yesterday he resigned with Philly with an invite to MLB Spring Training.

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            3. I just think we sign any number of Casper Wells types before we turn to someone like Castro for the 5th OF spot. If he was plausible in CF it might be a different story, but he has not played much there the last few years and I don’t think the team sees him as a CF at all. Collier will be an interesting protection pick. Probably 50-50 he would get drafted though it will be tough for him to stick all year on a roster.

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            6. Someone ‘might’ take almost any Rule 5 eligible player, as some of the reaches for not outstanding guys in A-ball indicate. The question I ask myself about potential Rule 5 losses is ‘would I consider a significant loss if another team drafted and kept the guy?’. In the case of Castro, no I would not be at all upset if he went elsewhere. He’s the sort of very fungible OF that if you lose him and want another, they’re quite available on the minor league FA market. He’s a 24-yr old corner OF, 7 years in the Phillies system, who put up a .648 OPS in AAA. His greatest success was a .785 OPS two years ago at Clearwater and his performance declined each of the next two seasons, as he was promoted a step a year. He’d be a cheap 5th OF with some stolen bases, a little power, poor OBP, and good corner OF defense. Not really enough of anything to make a good spare OF.

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    2. I’m going to post the same Dugan-related comment here I posted on another thread a while ago since it was a late comment and probably not read by many. It intends to illustrate the severity of his bad plate discipline at Reading by comparison to the worst K/BB put up in a minor league, pre-major debut season with at least 100 PAs, listing the number for each baseball player who saw the Phillies’ roster this season. Obviously it’s going to miss some context like age/level, offensive context, and power, but it should give you a better idea of just how much of an outlier the plate discipline from his Reading performance would be among major league ballplayers. Here’s the list:

      Carlos Ruiz: 2.7, Lakewood
      Howard: 3.02, Clearwater
      Utley: 2.38, Clearwater
      Rollins: 1.54, Piedmont
      MYoung: 2, Tennessee
      Brown: 2.64, Reading
      Revere: 1.83, AAA
      DYoung: 8.25, AAA
      Next: 4.33, AAA
      Mayberry: 4.6, Lehigh
      Ruf: 3.35, Clearwater
      Frandsen: 3.5, AA
      Galvis: 6, AAA
      Kratz: 5.33, RK
      Asche: 3.08, Clearwater
      Nix: 4.3, AAA
      Hernandez: 3.48, Clearwater
      Bernadina: 2.79, A
      Quintero: 3.8, A+
      (Higher over-30)
      Martinez: 6.67, AAA
      Wells: 3.56, A-
      McDonald: 2.18, AAA
      Orr: 3.68, A+
      Carrera: 3.13, FRK
      Rupp: 5.5, AAA
      Susdorf: 2.37, Clearwater
      Lerud: 4.3, AA
      Savery: 1.33, Clearwater

      Here are the worst five:
      8.25, DYoung
      6.67, MiniMart
      6, Galvis
      5.5, Rupp
      5.33, Kratz.

      Note that Delmon Young was a 19-year-old in Triple-A when he put up the worst number on this list and Dugan was 30% worse than he was. Dugan, for the record, put up a 10.8. This is roughly twice as bad as two backup catchers.
      I’m not saying it’s impossible for Dugan to become a major league player or even a contributor. I’m saying he has a giant waving red flag telling us not to expect it.

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      1. Based on the above statistical analysis, at this juncture, his value will never be higher. Ruben should try to package him in a deal.

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      2. The sample size is too small and he may have been trying to hard after his promotion. The previous year and a half his BB rate was over 9%, I put more stock into that.

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  3. I thinks it says a lot about how the Phillies identify, evaluate, value, and develop the hit tool that the guy with the top hit tool came out of the draft with questions on whether his hit tool was good enough for a position (along with C) with the lowest threshold for a hit tool. I was excited about what he did in short-season ball, but I am not ready to pronounce Crawford a .330 hitting savior just yet.

    And did anyone notice that they said “Ryne Sandberg, who had piloted Triple-A Lehigh Valley most of the season, replaced Manuel.” I lose a lot of respect for the thoroughness of opinions of those who get basic facts wrong.

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    1. Singleton was #5 and Santana #8 on BP’s top Astros top 10 btw. Santana might be one of the dumbest PTBNL moves in history.

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      3. This has been said 1000 times on this site — just because he was the PTBNL in the Pence deal, doesn’t mean that he was a throw-in.

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  4. Altherr has always been a favorite for some scouts. Lots of athleticism and just enough production not to write him off. The ‘potential’ is still there. Collier is similar. Amazing to me that I’d probably leave both of these guys exposed to Rule 5 draft (though I think Collier’d have to clear waviers which might not be worth the risk).

    I guess it is just me, but seeing Pedro Martinez types of pitchers I am less concerned about Serverino’s frame and more about his changeup. I could see him like another Pettibone/Worley/Kendrick/Happ type guy who comes up with some success but then reveals himself as a backend starter.

    Agree that Franco, Biddle are top guys. Crawford was too good not to be in that conversation though. But I think he slots with Quinn and Tocci as young guys with excellent tools and some success. MAG who knows. I hope they project him to the bullpen to save innings on his arm.

    Agree there’s a drop to the next tier. Lots of project still left even on a guy like Hernandez – is he a CF, will his speed be a true asset, can he maintain an OBP with little power and higher K rate? Skip Schumaker (CF/2B) is a backup/starter guy that maybe the Phillies model as they use Hernandez.

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    2. Not enough experience, unless your system is horrible Top LA guys aren’t going make the top 10. Encarnacion along with Grullon and Pujols are likely in the 10-20 range (in the chat Norris said that Grullon is likely in the 10-15 range)

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  6. Tommy Joseph’s injury apparently has made him not even a top-10 prospect at this point. Just based on his production I had him barely in the top-10 last year so I’m not shocked by it. I always thought he was much too overhyped off some power in the CAL league.

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    1. Yeah, it’s pretty sobering that the deadline offloading the Phillies have done over the last few years has netted them basically one Top 10 prospect: Martin. And even he comes with major caveats. Add that on top of the return on the first Cliff Lee trade and … well, let’s just say all those people who were calling for Lee and Utley to go last year maybe should have been careful about what they were wishing for.

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      1. Prospects are nice, but more often than not they will not turn out to be quality MLB players.

        A longterm study done on BA rankings found a 50% bust rate for any player who never was ranked in the top-10 by BA and that rose to a 70% bust rate for players who maxed out at a #30 to #100 ranking. That # is made up by pitchers carrying a much higher % to bust than position players. Position players in the top-20 carried a bust rate of 40% while pitchers were 60%.

        The Phillies traded some very highly ranked prospects to get Roy Halladay and while injuries are a factor(especially for Kyle Drabek) you’d have to say both Drabek and Michael Taylor are busts.

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  7. I noticed that in the BA report and chat about Franco, we don’t see the trendy phrase “arm-bar swing”. The au courant description of Franco is “Miguel Sano light”.

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    1. Dont Get why “sano light” not for nothing but Franco is better then Sano. Strikes out less, better avg, moré total bases.

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      1. Franco is less athletic, a worst defender, has poorer approach (the amount of bases Sano picks up by walking is a big deal), has a grade less power, and has a hit tool that may only be slightly better than Sano.

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        1. I don’t think either player is very athletic. Both are slow runners. Defensively, both have strong arms, but Sano’s is probably stronger. Reportedly, Franco’s hands are better.

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          1. That’s such an assinine comment. MW’s observations are entirely consistent with all of the scouting reports. Do you honestly think that MW wants to denigrade our prospects or unduly praise prosects from other teams. Get real.

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            3. Anonymous – or perhaps its simply a matter of Phans overrating our own prospects. MW hasn’t stated anything that is inconsistent with what scouts have stated.

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            4. I don’t disagree. Just not sure MW needs to be the voice of reason police all of the time. He seems to go out of his way to do that.

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          2. From the BP prospect chat yesterday:
            Greg (Greensboro): Maikel Franco seems to have some helium after a great 2013. I’ve heard “Sano-lite”. If it safe to say Franco has a better hit tool but slightly less power? If so, does the better hit actually make him a better offensive player?

            Nick J. Faleris: I don’t think it’s safe to say Franco has a better hit tool — the key to both will be seeing how they make adjustments to advanced pitching at the highest levels. The power is a 60 to Sano’s 80. Sano is the better overall offensive talent, and the better athlete.

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            1. Nothing to disagree with there and that certainly isn’t a slight to Franco. I’d add that it’s quite possible, even if unlikely, that Franco passes Sano next year as a propsect and I’d point to Franco’s low K-rate to Sano’s high K-rate as one area where Franco has a considerable advantage. I still see Franco as a .260-.270 type, but add 25 HRs and a knack for driving in runs and we have a very, very valuable young player. Phans feel slighted that Franco ranks behind Sano and I don’t see why. It’s a compliment to Franco that he’s in the same category as Sano

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            2. That is how I see it (except I don’t think Franco will pass Sano), Sano is a near consensus a Top 5 prospect in baseball. Franco not being better is really not a big deal.

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            3. mlb.com gave Franco a 5/5 rating on defense and Sano a 2/4. BA says that Franco has soft hands, while Sano manos de piedra. I get the impression that Franco has a better chance than Sano to stick at third.

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            4. Actually they have the defensive aspect as Franco – Arm 6/6, Field 5/5 vs Sano’s Arm: 6/7 Field: 2/4

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            6. Something to remember here is that mlb.com’s ratings date to the beginning of the season. Every report I have heard on Sano has been that he is more athletic than you think and that it is going work at 3B unless he lets the weight get out of control. Ad the end of the season rolled around more scouts thought Sano would stick at third than Franco, though scouts aren’t saying that Franco should be moved (at least not now, it is more about if the body gets too big)

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            7. ‘mlb.com’s ratings date to the beginning of the season.’…I really do not see how a 6 month earlier ratring is relevant after 2/3 years of past evaluations. I understand players improve and initial ratings to arm strength and foot speed rarely ever change however in this case such a high discrepancy bewteen Franco and Sano’s ‘field’ cat rating is highly improbable that difference can be made up within a six month period.
              Then again, Jon Mayo’s subjective opinions and ratings have been debatable in the past.

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            8. The big thing, Sano went from age 19 to 20, I don’t know about the rest of you but in that age range you get a lot more comfortable and fluid with your body and its motions, additionally Sano put a lot of work into his infield actions to be able to stick at third.

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            9. BA’s report on Franco is current, post-2013 season. “Franco showed good hands and actions, along with an above-average arm … He moves left to right well and has the footwork to stick at third …” These comments about Franco’s defense sound more positive than what you have heard.

              When one says Sano has more power at the plate, has a stronger throwing arm, and is more athletic, the impression given is that Sano is better in three respects. Please clarify what is meant by Sano’s being more “athletic” than Franco.

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            10. Sano has better raw physical gifts. He is faster, stronger, more coordinated, his body is more conducive to carrying its weight well, he is more fluid and less stiff overall, and overall he is just more physically gifted. The biggest difference between athletes and non-athletes in baseball is that the more athletic you are the more physical adjustments you can make and the better chance you have of making them stick. You expect Sano to continue to get better and refine his swing and actions, and with Franco you are worried if he can actually physically make the adjustments.

              It is the difference between Aumont and Martin. Aumont is unathletic, he struggles to even be able to make the adjustments he needs to have control, the delivery is not fluid and has a ton of moving pieces. You look at Martin and more of his issues have to do with overthrowing pitches and having the stamina, but when you look at his delivery you can see him making adjustments and having a fluid delivery that allows him to work back into a game where he is off.

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            11. Sano is way stiffer then Franco. The only thing sano has over Franco is raw power. But Adam Dunn has more raw power then Miguel Cabrera. But I’d rather have Miguel

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            12. I understand what you are saying and believe it to be true about athleticism in general. Sano cannot have the superior athleticism you describe, however, if he is a slow runner and if he has “hard hands”. Sano also cannot be so superior athletically to Franco if Franco is a better defender.

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            13. I don’t think Franco is a better defender now, and I think Franco can only trend down and Sano is trending up. Franco is more physically limited overall. I have gotten times from people this year that put Sano as a 40 runner and Franco in the 20-30 range. Sano will slow down, but Franco may be the slowest accelerating player in baseball (not horrible underway but it takes a while to get up to speed)

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            14. Just one more thing before I move on. Franco is described as having soft hands, while Sano is described as having bad hands. This is what BA reports. Have you not seen these reports? Or have you seen reports to the opposite effect and, if so, from whom? And, if so, why do you attach more credibility to these other reports than to BA’s?

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            15. Sano has more power and athleticism than Franco, but despite what MW says he is not a better 3rd baseman than Maikel Franco currently is and very likely never will be as good a fielder at 3B Than Maikel Franco is or will continue to be. Just because someone is athletic doesn’t mean those traits translate to doing well at a certain thing and in this case it’s fielding for Sano.

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    1. I would say his upside would be Shane Victorino .270-.290 15 HR 30 SB with gold glove defense. Granted that is upside. I, personally, am not as high on him as some others.

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      1. Thanks guys. I see the talent, but he just strikes out so much. Toolsy guy though. Next year will be a really big year for him as far as seeing exactly what we’ve got goes.

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      2. I understand where you are going there but I think Upton had more speed, more power and better defense than Altherr ever will, and that includes the fact that Upton never reached his potential.. That’s no slight on Altherr as Upton was a #2 pick in the draft.

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        1. I’m not saying either are world beaters but I would take collier over altherr. Not sure if that means collier is too low or altherr is too high but from where I stand or sit I like collier better

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          1. Unless someone knows that Collier’s bad season prior to August was due to something like a lingering injury, I prefer Altherr. Go with the most recent good year.

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      3. His tools are no where near as bold as upton. He has tools but uptons are premium, 70’s and 80’s whether they play there or not

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    3. Altherr strikes out too much for what he is. However, he has good speed, is an excellent CF, and has good extra base power although not more than 20ish homer power. He has major league potential to be sure. He’s a big guy who is getting stronger.

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  9. I just heard that Roman Quinn tore his achillies. He’ll be out all of next season now. This is terrible news obviously.

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    2. Aw man. On top of the daunting recovery time, I think that injury is a real long-term killer for any prospect who relies on speed. If this is true (I really hope it’s not) I think we’ll have to put Quinn into the Scott Mathieson memorial rehab bin and just consider anything he does going forward a surprise gift.

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        1. I know, that’s a good sign I guess, although with offseason injuries it’s often hard to know what’s going on. And Quinn’s twitter is pretty cryptic, as twitter feeds go.

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          1. What’s cryptic about it? There’s nothing on his twitter that I would even remotely think has to do with him getting hurt ESP something so severe.

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            1. What I was saying is that he doesn’t seem to say much of anything on his twitter–it’s mostly just thanking God for stuff, which is fine. But there’s nothing you can read into either way. Anyhow, if he did suffer a major injury, he would be unlikely to announce it on his twitter. That’s the sort of thing that pisses off the team.

              So, basically, we know nothing except what Murray told us. Murray is a longtime commenter here, not a random troll or someone who spouts off nonsense. That said, I’d like to know a little more about the sourcing, if it’s possible to pass along Murray?

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            2. Someone in the organization told me about it last night. Apparently it just happened last week. I just emailed Salsbury asking him to confirm it with the Phils. I totally trust the guy that told me. I’m sure it will come out from the Phils soon.

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            3. That’s a shame if true. But at least those who were regularly posted during the season as to the challenges of having both Crawford and Quinn in the same system can now lay those concerns to rest. As many of us opined during the year, too much can happen between now and 2015 when Crawford and Quinn’s paths expect to cross that it’s not something worth being concerned about –

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      1. I just saw that on the General Discussion thread Murray said it was from a friend of Quinn’s, who said he tore it while working out. So… I guess we’ll see.

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            2. Whether he is in your top ten or not does not mean a thing, especially considering he could be a valuable piece on the ML club at some point

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  10. Starting a new set of discussion here on defense Franco vs Sano:

    I think Franco does have soft hands, the BA report is the outlier on range though, I think Sano’s hands aren’t terrible, but are worse than Franco. Here is BP’s Chris Mellon’s head to head report on their defense:
    Neither Sano or Franco is likely going to be known for his defense. In game action, both were deliberate and didn’t look natural with their movements or reactions. There’s a lack of trust that shows in how robotic each can be. I give Sano the better chance to stick at the position based on his having more fluidity and his signs of development, but there’s still a good amount of defensive growth necessary for him to become average.

    Franco’s slow first step, especially to his left, limited his range at the hot corner. My gut says it is more likely that he moves off the position in the long run, but my mind is still open. Both Sano and Franco featured plus-to-better arms, and showed no trouble in getting some steam behind their throws. Ideally, they’re arms you’d like to see stick at third and not move across the diamond.

    I also trust BP and other’s reports a bit more because they are direct from scouts or scouted themselves. I respect the work that Josh Norris (BA writer in this case) does, but he is not a scout and more of a compiler of different reports

    Here is Jason Parks’ Sano Defense Report:
    Glove
    Much better than expected; will eventually play as average or above; good lower-half actions; bends well; good first step; lacks crazy range; very good at coming in on balls; hands are solid; will let balls play him; will improve through repetition; can stay at the position.
    Grade: Present 4/Future High 5
    Arm
    Arm is very strong; fundamentally sound mechanics; sets himself and throws from high/shoulder slot; accuracy should be fine; standout tool.
    Grade: Present 7/Future 7

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    2. A recent quote from Joe Jordan on Franco:
      “He is not a runner. He’s a well below-average runner as far as his foot speed, but he has good first-step quickness and very good instincts at third base. His glove is going to be at least a plus glove guy in the Major Leagues. He really catches the ball very well. His arm is easy above average and he’ll show you a 70 arm at times if he has to.”

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  12. Rupp is the missing name here. I’d put him ahead of both Severino Gonzalez and Ethan Martin. The Phillies farm system today is worse than it has been in over a decade, in my opinion. The injuries to Morgan, Joseph, Quinn, Gillies and many others have taken their toll. I wasn’t real high on the farm system last year either, which is why I ranked Ruf #1, a decision I am still happy with, even though last year Biddle and Franco did surpass him.

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