General Discussion – Week of 10-28-2013

Weekly Discussion

It all comes down to this. The drama is palpable. The intrigue undeniable. Yes, there’s just three possible games left, and if I take two out of three, I’ll be the undisputed Connect Four champion of my household. BOOM!

Also, something about the World Series, I guess.

Discuss.

188 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 10-28-2013”

  2. WIth the TV contract possibly being completed and signed this week, I hope the financial splurge will be the impetus for Ruben and the Phillies to go in for Masa Tanaka and also sign Matt Garza.
    That would be a large coup if they could sign those two pitchers, and they would be a strong contender for the playoffs in 2014.
    Thinking positive.

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    1. So, let’s see. Tanaka will require a posting fee just for the privilege of signing him to a big contract. As a guideline, Yu Darvish received around 52 million for the last big posting fee. Have seen an estimate on Tanaka of 40 million by Adams of MLBTR, and also estimates of around 60 million , due to scarcity and inflation. Going to go with 60 million as a prediction.. That is all payable in full within one year. Still consider the imminent TV deal as a rumor from Bloggerville, until proven otherwise, but let’s say it comes in. A good healthy Average Annual Value according to estimates on here, would come in at 150 million per year. Considering the current deal still has 2 years to expiration, you can take the scheduled 35 million from the old deal add in 50 million for the next two years from the first year of the speculative new deal (50-50-50) or some such reconfiguration. Then you assume if the Phillies FO will look at the guessed 85 million in TV local money next season and begin To act according to the scenario, You deduct the 60 million for Tanaka which leaves 25 million and you deduct (in a conservative estimate ) 15 million for Garza which takes it to 10 million, then you add the salary of Tanaka (which was temporarily forgotten by me, there) I estimate another 15 million per season, which takes it to minus 5 or 5 million from the general admission fees. And then all of that is without a Catcher, Relief Pitcher, or any other position player. So, if you believe the ownership will perceive a windfall for the upcoming season, and spend all of it , and then some, (in advance), then the scenario works.. Otherwise, it is hanging by a thread.

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      1. Again with the negativity. Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
        anonymous1311186919 : Crap!

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        1. Negativity? What Negativity. It is just a simple recitation of the facts as I see them.What you see from media outlets, talk radio and various other sources, is the building up of false hopes for scenarios with very little chance of fruition. Then when these unlikely scenarios do not occur, they fan the flames of endless vituperation and recriminations. That is where their negativity comes in. Why not just head them off at the pass with preemptive negativity.

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          1. Preemptive negativity (PN)…now I heard it all.
            This is hot stove time were the coals burn of hope and excitement.
            This is were we envision Dom Brown and Ryan Howard competing for the HR title.
            We see Lee and Hamels battling head-to-head for the Cy Young come August.
            Were Chase and Jimmy are ‘feeling it the fever again’ in June.
            Were a young upstart Asche blossoms at third and Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle are tearing up the International League.
            And, finally, were Ruben hires a department of metric analysis.

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            2. This is what the phillies hope for a guy, who no matter how bad they run the team into the ground. We as fans should not get upset and look and say oh how wonderful you are ruben, and monty. what a bunch of crap.

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        2. LOVED Kelly’s Heroes!!!!!!!!!

          “woof, woof, woof….that’s my other dog impression….”

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      2. I actually believe the Phils will check out Tanaka closely and consider signing him. I think they hope to sign one of Tanaka, Garza, Santana, or Jiminez. Two of them would cost too much. When you calculate the money however, realize that Doc’s money comes back. Mackanin did scout Tanaka for the Yankees so he knows how good he is. I’ve never seen him but his stats are very impressive.

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      3. There is a difference between “negativity” and “douche baggery.” I don’t think negativity is the issue here.

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        1. Since, once again, as always, your schtick is the simple insertion of a snappy one-liner after another did all the material, believe those with a clear-sightedness and open mind should consider the source. Snappy one-liners have no effect whatsoever, here. It’s more like , “the Red Badge, etc.”. Took a walk across the cow pasture this morning and afterwards had to scrape your opinion off the bottom of my shoe. And , one wonders how one can get away with the use of Fuqua as a screen name. Believe I was the first to type Fuqua on here, as I simply stated the name of the former manager as Charles Fuqua Manuel. I was called on it by the powers that be, it was originally deleted with the assertion that you can’t have dirty words on here. It just goes to show that the “Stats Guys” and TEAM PLANTS can do anything on here, , while promoters of the Truth will always be called on it.

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    1. Why, oh why do people keep throwing these low ball figures on Garza? I anticipate that he will get something in the neighborhood of Anibal Sanchez’s 5/$80M. The Lincecum deal didn’t help matters any.

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      1. Agree.
        Garza is still relatively young and will command at least 4 years and maybe 5 with an annual pay out of at least $15/17M range.

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        1. I agree. I think it will take the 5th year which might make it a bit much for me. I think you are right on the $$$s too. He’s the the best FA starter in the market and won’t cost anyone a pick. This is the tailor made “overpay” scenario. Shame too, because I like him a lot as well and think he would be exactly the right type of signing for the club.

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        3. I agree as well. The fact that he is the best FA starter on the market and won’t cost a pick means he is line for a significant overpay. At least 5-$80M I would think. I really like him and thnik he would slot in perfectly with the Phils but that’s a bit long and rich for my blood.

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            1. In 2012 he missed about a dozen starts with the Cubbies, being on the DL.
              But last year I think he missed about 5 starts bewteen the Cubs and Rangers combined.
              And then there was a brief off-time after the trade deadline deal between them.
              So he did pitch more in 2013.

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    2. The Phils have a very long shot at making the playoffs in 2014. Garza is no more than an expensive 30-year-old no. 3 of questionable endurance who would improve the Phils a little, but who wouldn’t really help them get to the post-season.

      The Phils would be better off going after a pair of cheaper, riskier pitchers with higher upside, guys like Tanaka and Josh Johnson. With these additions plus MAG plus a lot of luck, the Phils could end up with a strong rotation that could be together for awhile.

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      1. Tanaka won’t be cheaper, unless you’re counting only the hit against the lux cap. The posting fee will make him costlier than Garza. I would like to see us sign Tanaka, but let’s not pretend he’s cheap.

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        1. Actually we don’t really know what changes will happen to the posting fee system. There is going to be something different come Nov 1st. It’s not going to be the rumored “posted player gets to pick from top 3 bidders”, but there’s also a possibility of changing the luxury tax ramifications.

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          1. There are already no luxury tax implications as the posting fee is not subject to the luxury tax. Not, that I consider the luxury tax to be much of a factor in anything. No matter what changes they make to the posting system, I would be willing to bet that the Japanese team will still take the highest bid, and that the player in concert with his agent will still try to get the best contract they can, and if not to their liking will not sign and return to Japan. And , though the posting fee will not count against the luxury tax, it is still real money, ergo, not cheap.

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      2. I see lots of comments that we should sign Josh Johnson. Did any of you actually see him pitch last year? He’s the same Johnson the same way that Doc is the same guy. Their arms are not the same and never will be the same again. Both are fools gold.

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        1. 1. Yes, Johnson was terrible this year.
          2. With Johnson, it’s always been a question of his health. When healthy, Johnson has been a no. 1.
          3. Johnson is Cole Hamels’ age, not Doc’s.
          4. This year, Johnson pitched with a bone spur in his elbow, but surgery this month supposedly corrected this problem.
          5. Without any health issues, Johnson would be the top FA on the market this off-season.
          6. With all of the questions surrounding Johnson’s health, he should be available for cheap.
          7. Any team looking at Johnson should do its due diligence.
          8. If Johnson were reasonably healthy, he could be a no. 2.
          9. The Phils have no shot at making the playoffs in 2014 unless they get lucky with their rotation and have five starters who are no. 3s or better. Despite the risk, they are more likely to get lucky with Johnson than they are with Garza or Kendrick.
          10. If Johnson doesn’t work out, the Phils won’t make the playoffs, but it won’t have cost much. They also won’t make the playoffs with Garza performing at his career norm, but Garza will be more expensive.

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          1. That’s a pretty accurate step by step brief analysis of Johnson. He’s a guy who’s going to be hard to project in free agency because we don’t have access to his medicals. He almost seems like a candidate for a 2 yr deal, where you expect nothing the first year but let him rehab on your dime and reap the benefits if he’s healthy in 2015. That said, then medical staff would know best if he’s even worth the risk.

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          2. Agreed. Johnson has huge upside and is unlikely to get a long deal so if the more likely scenario of suck happens then he will need to be replaced by a young’un of hope.

            Halladay might have a similar chance of being excellent next year. Not sure what GM is going to be able to know which one is worth the risk. I think a playoff team rolls out the red carpet for Halladay with small paycheck (A’s maybe) to see if he was serious about playing for free.

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          1. I really believe a change of scenery for Phil Hughes is going to be big for him. He’s one of the guys I would target.

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  4. Not a good set of seasons for Phillies to be negotiating the new TV deal.
    I actually figured they’d make a big splash in attempt to keep the fanbase and try to squeezed every billion dollar drop out of that TV deal.

    If the deal is actually done, I could see the Phillies being more conservative and go for shorter term commitments.

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    1. IMO, Comcast does not want to get in a bidding war with Fox, who want a major Northeastern market. Phillies will profit handsomely by acquiescencing to Comcast’s early extension proposal.

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      1. Profit? They’ll have more money then they did the day before, so, theoretically that’s a “profit” Whenever there is a bidding war, that’s means the fees paid will increase. Staying on the Comcast/NBC plantation will only result in being locked in. Comcast’s game is to maintain their stranglehold on the Philadelphia area through their proprietary Cable Company with a lot of microwave transmissions which can not readily be transferred to other carriers, and such. And, then , to jack up the prices for their captive audience for all the market will bear. The net result will be a restrictive area beyond which the games can not be seen, and increased costs within said area.

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        1. Hey…we will still get our over-the-air Sunday WPHL games.
          Someone in the print media mentioned that the Philies could possibly net $200M annually from the deal. Monty must be jigging in the hall about now.

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  5. I’ve liked the following idea for awhile and wonder if any organizations do something like this . . . Make 2 teams comprised of what you think are the best prospects we have . . .

    Prospect Team 1:

    C – Andrew Knapp
    1B – Luis Encarnation
    2B –
    3B – Maikel Franco
    SS – Roman Quinn
    LF – Jose Pujols
    CF – Aaron Atherr
    RF – Kelly Dugan
    DH –
    RHP – Serverino Gonzalez
    LHP – Adam Morgan
    Closer – Ken Giles
    Prospect Team 2:
    C – Deivi Grullon
    1B – Dylan Cozens
    2B – Andrew Pullen
    3B – Zach Green
    SS – JP Crawford
    LF – Cameron Perkins
    CF – Carlos Tocci
    RF – Cord Sandberg
    DH – Tommy Joseph
    RHP – Shane Watson
    LHP – Jessie Biddle
    Closer –

    Just got a call (working) so can’t finish now . . If anyone has some time try this (I did it draft style starting w catcher then alternated first and second picks going down the positions – example team 2 had first pick of catchers then team 1 had first pick of 1B then team 2 had first pick of 2B and so on). If you try it you’ll see which positions lack depth. 2B was the toughest.

    Would be cool if the Phillies did this maybe in the spring and had a “Prospect Series”. Would give a chance for the moderate fan (not most of us) to see the Phillies top prospects. It also gives the Philllies a chance to see all their top guys against each other. Feel like it would be a win win for everyone.

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    1. In lieu of the draft thing, how about this. Get depth charts and rosters from the minor league teams, list the players at various positions, rank them.

      I assume the proposal is for some exhibition game in Philly prior to the start of the season. Keeping players away from the work of their assignments for some exhibition in front of not always aware big league fan base. Taking them out of training routines and putting on some possible pressure and risk of injury, perhaps, due to trying to do too much to make an impression among players at different levels of development and experience. Let’s just say, there might be a downside.

      As far as players going against each other , they all ready have that. It is called minor league Spring Training exhibition games. Players circulate among the various teams to play against different levels of competition. Theoretically, this contributes to where various players are placed when the minor league seasons start.

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    2. Why no Hernandez at 2B? Perhaps Delvy Francisco as your other closer. Knapp and Grullon are projections from way down in the system, while Rupp will be a big leaguer in some capacity. Why a DH for an NL team, and why Joseph as a DH, since his value plummets if he can’t catch. If you want a true DH, I think you look to guys like Murphy or Wilmer Oberto.

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      1. I wasn’t considering Hernandez as a prospect anymore, see him taking the utility role next year but he would be the first choice at 2B. Knapp and Grullon (IMO) are the 2 best catching prospects the Phillies have, both having higher ceilings then Rupp (Rupp will be no more then a back up which is no knock against him he’ll be needed in that role). Wanted a DH for 2 reasons 1. Just to showcase another bat and also to take away any type of fluke injury from a pitcher batting (if this were a real game). I don’t really see Murphy as a prospect, not sure many ppl do. And Oberto was old for the level and with his size I really don’t see him ever being more then a career minor leaguer.

        PS yeah what’s with anonymous##########? I’ve never seen any type of positive post out of him or even a post that he agrees with anyone but himself. Sheesh! Also “players trying to do to much to make an impression” uhhh it’s called minor league spring training, all the players are trying to do all the can to make an impression.

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        1. I think Hernandez is very definitely a prospect as a starting MLB 2B. He won’t start over the next couple years, because the Phillies have Utley, but if our current strength at 2B was on a par with our MLB strength at most other positions, Hernandez would be next season’s starter. I agree that he is now a utility guy, but that is really a consequence of a merely good potential MLB position player being blocked by our best player. Hernandez is a plus fielder at 2B who should develop into an ok MLB hitter (at least for a middle IF).

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          1. Oh no I agree that he could be a starting 2B on other teams just took him off of my minor leaguer players to choose from. He’d be good on the Tigers hitting 8th or 9th.

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          2. Again I have to ask: where’s the evidence that he is a plus fielder at second base? I haven’t seen it. I agree that, if he truly is a plus defender, he could be a regular at second base (though I suspect my current evaluation of his other skills might also be a little lower than yours).

            IMO, without some clear evidence that he is indeed a plus fielder, or progress in his offensive game, or a little of both, he is a back up.

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            1. There is evidence:

              BA had him as the best defensive infielder in the system for 2012, best EL 2B in 2012, best FSL 2B in 2011.

              Eric Longenhagen, who’s pretty even handed scouting the Phillies system, likes his defense.

              James in 2011 called his defense an asset.

              John Sickels calls his defense above average.

              The only negative that I can find regarding his defense is the 67 inning sample size last year at 2B. He’s probably not plus in a strict scouting sense, but his glove should end up being above average.

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            2. An avergae glove isn’t enough for him, and probably not even an above average glove. He’s just not likely to ever hit enough to be a starter without near elite defense.

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        2. Did not type “players trying to do to much” I typed “players trying to do too much”, not among the “misusing and misspelling of words on the internet” crowd.

          As to the positive stuff, if I see something worthwhile to read or accurate in its assessments I might consider throwing in a “way to go Bunky” or somesuch. But the “GEE, GUYS1 LET’S MAKE A LIST OF ALL THE MINOR LEAGUERS, DRAFT ‘EM UP INTO IMAGINARY TEAMS IN AN IMAGINARY DRAFT, AND THEN PLAY AN IMAGINARY GAME IN OUR MIND. AND THEN WE CAN ALL SLIP OUR” stuff ain’t it.

          Also , don’t put much stock in the theory that this ownership group will gather up between around 40 to 60 million or so, for Japanese Pitcher Tanaka payable in full witrhin one year, and then sign him to an expensive contract, and then sign all the top MLB Free Agents, too boot. Don’t see it.

          As to Minor League Spring Training exhibition games, They already play minor league Spring Training Exhibition Games. The only change I would see in what the proposal is would be playing in front of the MLB crowd at the home park, which would bring up the concerns as above.

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          1. “Did not type “players trying to do to much” I typed “players trying to do too much”, not among the “misusing and misspelling of words on the internet” crowd.”

            …

            “… then sign all the top MLB Free Agents, too boot.”

            How do you feel about irony?

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            1. I don’t feel anything about irony. It appears someone uncovered a simple typo among a great volume of output in the printed word. How do you feel about putting a name to nonsense?

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            3. For the record Don’t think being a hypocrite is a bad thing and work on it and practice it.

              As to the simple typo thing, what I commented on was not a simple typo. A simple typo is when a person mistypes words of their own.. If someone did that I would not comment on it and would expect as much.What I commented on was a more complex typo ( mistyping words they attributed to me in one of my things) combined with the misuse of a word , also attributed to me. Meaning the confusing of Your and You’re and to , too , and two and things of that nature which really annoys me that people do not take the time to get this right when I see they put that.

              Also, it is a trick of the internet to quote another with misspellings and improper use of words. It is a subtle and occult way of implying that the one you quoted might be some kind of simpleton. Only the most clever and deceptive use it. So shed no tears for whats-their-name.

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            1. I ain’t angry about nothing. There is some level of annoyance because one comes on here looking for good information, and, instead finds people with nonsensical screen names throwing up even more nonsensical theories. Am the antidote to these people with the nonsensical screen names with the nonsensical theories. I shall now redouble my efforts to be the antidote to these people with the nonsensical screen names with the nonsensical theories.

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            2. Don’t hit me with them negative waves so early in the morning. Think the Phillies World Series will be there and it will be there. It’s a mother, beautiful Phillies World Series, and it’s gonna be there. Ok?

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          3. Minor league players are playing in front of MLB scouts EVERY DAY/NIGHT so you might as well throw out the they would try to do too much argument. I mean if that was the case then cancel any and all minor league games.

            ps you came on here to read good information and haven’t found any yet? If that’s the case then you aren’t looking to closely. There’s tons of great info on this site . . If you don’t like it or disagree (that there’s no good info on here) then try adding some of your valuable info. Maybe we all could learn something from you, I highly doubt it but hey you never know.

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    3. Most of these position players played intra-squad games against each other during Instructs. The organization may see the suggestion as redundant.

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    4. They used to play a prospect game at the vet before going to the FIL- I remember watching an 18 year old Mike Lieberthal who couldn’t seem to hold on to pitched balls. The problem is, that for the expense of coordinating the gathering, nobody really cares enough to want to watch in any great numbers to make it worthwhile.

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  6. Maikel Franco- is still hitting just like he did all year.
    In eight games, Franco is 12 for 31 (three doubles, four RBIs and a pair of stolen bases). But he also has eight strikouts.

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  7. MLBTradeRumors reports that Ryan Madson has fired Scott Boras:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/ryan-madson-changes-agents.html

    I have no idea what really went down a couple of seasons ago, but assuming he’s not the grudging type, what do we think about the idea of bringing Madson back on a one-year contract? He’s not been the same pitcher he was before the injury, but he’s got experience in the late innings, and he might be willing to sign for a reasonable figure to come back to the place where he once had success. The variability of relievers’ performance being what it is, I don’t know that it’s impossible that he could have a bounce-back year in 2014.

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    1. Truth be told, if he’s healed, he could a huge addition. I’d give him $4 or 5 million with a second option year at around $6 million with a $1-2 million buy out. Madson knows what he’s doing and was a better reliever for the Phillies than Papelbon has been. Also gives the Phils more flexibility in dumping Pap if the opportunity arises. Boras totally screwed this guy.

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      1. He’s not going to cost that much. The Angels gave him $3.5 million last season and he never pitched for them. You know how they always say TJ surgery is 80 percent effective. It seems like Madson fits into that category. Say what you will about the Papelbon contract, but signing Madson would have been a catastrophic mistake in comparison, in retrospect. I feel bad for the guy, actually, or as bad as you can feel for someone who got paid nearly $4 million not to do his job last year. It’d be nice to see him as a Phillie again, although it’s hard to say what chance there is that he’ll ever pitch effectively again.

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      2. I would be open to a Madson return, but a few things:

        1) He has not pitched in an MLB game in 2 years. I think it would be foolish to have any real expectations for him at this point. To count on him as an 8th inning or 9th inning guy would be, in my eyes, a stretch. Best case, he returns to this form and can become an 8th inning guy again. Not sure how probably that is at this point though..

        2) It has been roughly 19 months since TJ surgery. His comeback last year was shut down after 1 minor league game. Recovery from TJ will vary based on person, but these days, how many come back to have any success that have been removed from the game for this long?

        3) With the salary structures out there these days – who knows what he would get. But, when I saw the $4-5MM with an option, I thought that seemed really high.

        Unless he shows great stuff in front of scouts, I just can’t imagine signing him for much more than 2 or 3, with reachable bonuses.

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        1. I think it might be something more like a low base salary, like $1 million or less, and then bonuses based on appearances, number of days spent on the active roster, etc. I wasn’t suggesting he would be someone who could be counted on to hold down the 8th inning, just saying he’s done it before, extremely well, and thus it might be a nice sign if it were possible to get him on a very favorable deal. Of course, all this presupposes that Madson hasn’t sworn an oath to destroy Ruben Amaro for snatching away his long term contract at the last possible moment.

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          1. Madson is on the verge of not getting a major league deal. Since most teams would not be concerned with a $1M risk for a reliver of Madson’s possible upside I imagined he’ll get something of the sort.

            I hope Phillies are willing to make that risk and he’ll accept to come back to where he had success.

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            1. Perhaps you guys are entirely right. I’m assuming Madson is healthy, but even if he is, i think you’re right that his market value is way down, which makes a gamble on him make even more sense.

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  8. Also, here’s an interesting Baseball America column that ranks minor league systems according to how many impact prospects they are poised to deliver in the near future (the system for determining this is a bit complicated, read the article to see more. But, the good/interesting news is that the Phillies ranked #17, right in the middle of the pack. Which is a lot better than I expected given the paucity of talent at the upper levels.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/a-simple-accounting-of-farm-system-impact-potential/

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    1. The way they did their rankings was…odd. If you take out the players most anyone would consider graduated (such as Ruf and Asche) the rankings would change quite a bit.

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      1. Right, and Puig counted for the Dodgers, for instance. But I think they were just going by the BA year-end lists, which had weird eligibility rules.

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    1. Blaise Ilsley pitched in the Phillies farm system for five years, was the Cardinal’s AAA Pitching Coach and now is the Cardinals Bullpen Coach according to Jim Salisbury at CSN Philly.

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  10. Apparently the Dodgers seem to be the leading candidate for the services of Masa Tanaka according to MLBTR. They have the money and like him after scouting him.
    Dodgers, under Ned Colletti, are an aggresive org.
    I believe a team like the Phillies, under Ruben, are more like passive aggresive! (tic)

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    1. Do they have the money? After all they spent last year? And I think although the Phillies SHOULD go after Tanaka, they will not. They are already taking a chance on MAG. I have the feeling that the Phillies will be making a lot of trades this offseason. Some trades to bring in near ready prospects and some that cost prospects. Like trading Papelbon for someone and then trading for Dexter Fowler or Stanton (Stanton much more unlikely).

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      1. Exactly what do you think the return is on Papelbon? With both his stuff and eventually his results ticking down last year I think his value is relatively low. It would have been one thing if a team was desperate at the trade deadline and Paps was still getting results, but as is I don’t think they will be able to unload much of his contract and there is no point to pay him to play somewhere else.

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  11. Can we get an update on the connect 4 championship already? Seriously, how much longer must i sit here in suspense?

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  12. Somewhat interesting article on former draftee Phillie Adrian Cardenas, who recently retired. “I quit because baseball was sacred to me until I started getting paid for it. The more that “baseball” became synonymous with “business,” the less it meant to me, and I saw less of myself in the game every time I got a check from the Philadelphia Phillies Organization, the Oakland Athletic Company, or the Chicago Cubs, L.L.C. To put it simply, other players were much better than I was at separating the game of baseball from the job of baseball”

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/sportingscene/2013/10/why-i-quit-major-league-baseball.html?mobify=0

    Hard to put ourselves in his shoes. But, let’s hope that he does not come to regret this decision 10 years from now.

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    2. Very interesting. Nice to see that he’s putting those creative writing classes to use. I had wondered where he went, because he was still pretty young and was having solid success in AAA with the Cubs.

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    3. I was just going to post this piece myself. My thoughts are:

      1)I think it may be possible to be too smart/introspective to be a successful professional athlete.

      2)We should all read the concluding paragraph very closely and remember it the next time we get on some 19-year-old kid for failing to live up to his potential. They’re giving up an awful lot to chase what is, even for the very best prospects, a long-shot dream of fame and riches at best.

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      1. Thanks for posting this comment. When I first read the article, I must have tuned out on the last paragraph.

        As a parent, I am guilty of this (as I assume many of us are). My son plays competitive youth travel baseball, and it is often easy to forget about the 3 for 4 games, only to immediately shift attention to the next game. I need to work on this.

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    1. Four players in the minors had 30 HRS and 100 RBI last season. The other three had 142, 147 and 161 strikeouts respectively. Franco had 70 Ks.

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  14. For those scoring at home – Scott Mathieson…

    In his 3rd appearance of the Japan Series finals, Yomiuri Giants @mathieson_scott picks up the win in 6-5 game to even series at 2.

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  15. I am just thinking, does anyone see a way that the phillies could unload pap, and howard, if they eat half there salary?? in howards case, we eat 35 million, do you think a team takes him?? or in paps case we go to say detroit and offer to pay half his remaining salary? just like to get some new blood in here,

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    1. “just like to get soem new blood in here”

      This is the same roccom who was lamenting the loss of Victorino a few weeks ago.

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    2. Count me as one of the minority that has not written off Papelbon. Is he worth $13MM+ – no (nor do I personally think a reliever ever is worth this much). but, I would still include him in the better than most reliever group. If the Phillies kicked in some money, I have to think there is still a market for a guy like him, and that the market could command a pretty good prospect.

      For Howard – I don’t see anyone biting. He is owed what – $85MM over the next 3 years? If the Phillies kicked in 35MM as you suggest, that leaves $50MM, or roughly $16MM per year. Leveraging 2013 first basemen salaries, $16MM would have been the 6th highest paid first baseman (right behind Votto, ahead of the back-loaded Pujols). For someone to even consider this – from a financial standpoint, I think the Phillies would need to kick in $50+. Even then, not sure what the market is for an injury prone, aging, platoon DH who cannot run.

      In 2012, I wonder if Ruben had any serious conversations with the Dodgers – right after they claimed Lee – for a package that would have included Howard (given that the Dodgers took on a bunch of dead salaries from the Red Sox a few weeks later (ish)),

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      1. In 2012 he still thought the old gang could win it all in 2013. After the 102 wins of 2011, that wasn’t entirely reasonable. Post-PEDs the collapse of older teams is going to be more rapid than the old reality that RAJ has internalized. The more valid criticism of RAJ is that he went into 2013 with a strategy that was neither go all out to win in 2013 nor to prepare the team to win in later seasons. His patch and fill was a cheap, grey fence straddling that avoided a big decision, but had reduced success of achieving either the goal of win now or the goal of rebuild for the future. Win one last one now was justified, because 2012 could be viewed as a fluke year of a rash of injuries. Certainly the world looks much different today. With 2013 being much worse than 2012, it is clear that win now is out the window. Major changes are needed. Either RAJ has a ton of $$$ to spend or that change is going to take time. While having Lee and Utley still on board for a limited time will always present the win-now temptation, it is deadly to the team’s future to try to pursue this on the cheap. If that’s what the owners want, then they have to pony up the $$$ for Tanaka and a couple other quite expensive pieces. Thus far, they have shown zero inclination to do that, not even spending their full, middle-of-the-road international bonus allocation.

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        1. Very good post. But the problem is obviously a step deeper than approach- he doesn’t know how to evaluate players properly- hence even the “cheap, grey fence straddling” signings were the wrong ones.

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        2. IMO, RAJ has one more year.
          No playoffs and he is gone like Ed Wade was a decade or so ago. Attendance fell from an average of 44K to 37K because of the poor results.
          So RAJ, thninking he is on the hot seat, may pull out the stops with some trades and acquisitions and go for it all in 2014.

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          1. My nightmare scenario: he goes all out this offseason in an attempt to save his job by gutting the farm and entering into a couple of more bad contracts. If the club improves, he saves his job. If he doesn’t he’s fired and leaves us in a worse place than we are now. Sort of lose- lose for us. The time to fire him would have been this offseason.

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      2. We’ll know the answer on Papelbon by the middle of ST. Either some of the FB velocity will return over the winter or it won’t. If it doesn’t, then Paps is not going to be an above average closer. He may be an above-average reliever, but that is comparing him to a ton of middle relief dross around the league. Paps would look good as somebody$2 mill seventh inning guy.

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        1. Uehara thrived as a closer without velocity. You wonder if Papelbon can adapt. He does have more than 2 pitches, unlike other power/closer type pitchers.

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          1. That’s like pointing to Jaime Moyer and claiming that he is even close to a model for success. Yes, some pitchers are so good at the craft of pitching, have so much deception, or have such great movement on their pitchers, that velocity is almost optional. For non-knuckle ballers this is rare. More typically, you have a Kendrick type situation, where he is very good when his control is very good and each of his pitches is working, but their is zero room for error, so you get a blend of the good and the awful from start to start and season to season. Paps is already giving us that. Many of his stats aren’t bad, but there are enough bad outings that his save/blown save ratio stinks.

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      3. The problem with Papelbon is that he has lost so much velocity that it’s going to be very difficult to market him right now. Essentially, unless he regains velocity early next year, he’s turned into K-Rod, a former flame thrower who is a borderline set-up guy and late inning reliever. Brutal, but true. The market value for a guy like that is probably $4-7 million depending on who is bidding. But, as borderline as he is, I don’t see that they have somebody ready to take that job, so I think they have to gut it out in 2014 with him around unless they bring in another guy who can do the job (more than possible, but not likely).

        Howard is currently unmovable. I’m probably in the great minority of people who thinks that Howard is going to have a pretty good Ryan Howard year (close to 40 homers, probably about an .850 or so OPS) next year. I really believe that. If you look at what happened to Howard, even before he tore his achilles, he was having chronic ankle and leg problems so he really hasn’t been healthy since early 2010 as far as I’m concerned and it was all lower body stuff that impaired his power and mobility. I expect him to be healthy for the first time since 2009 and it should really help his numbers. I also think he realizes that he has to make adjustments in his approach and he’s already in great shape. If he does put up a good season, then there will be some interest in him and the team can make a rational decision about whether to keep or move him (which undoubtedly will require them swallowing a pretty hefty chunk of the remainder of the contract).

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          1. Yeah, you disagree. My position is not a popular one, but I think he has it in him. These big comebacks happen in baseball all the time, especially when guys finally get healthy again. Even injured his annualized production would not have been far off of what I am projecting so this is much more realistic than you imagine.

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            1. I am wich you catch on Howard. I see him turning it around somewhat. Maybe not 40 dingers, but in the 28/32 range. I just hope Ryno does sit him vs the lefty starters for at least through June, and see if the platoon will work, if it is with Ruf.
              The only issue I see is the late inning LOOGY coming in, the Venters of the world, with runners on when he bats…what does Ryno do then?

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            3. When was the last time the clean-up hitter was pinch hit for in a major league game?
              Other then an injury situation.

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        2. I agree with the fact that he’s been dealing with various lower body issues since early 2010 which greatly affected his all around play. Even if those issues have been fixed he still has age to deal with as well as an approach that he doesn’t seem to want to change. It’s as much mental with him as physical

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          1. On a $4.3 million condo, I doubt the yearly fee charge is as low as 4,000 – it probably is monthly (I say that without reviewing the article or website).

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            1. you might be right. I guess I will cross this place off my list of places to check out should I decide to move from Atlanta.

              What prospect were we talking about again?

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  17. The Red Sox in 2011 stared out like gangbusters and totally collapsed in September and Terry Francona was ushered out along with the ‘chicken and beer gang’.
    In 2012 they bring in Bobby Valentine and the whole season was a collosal disasters and they finish last in the AL East…exit Bobby V.
    2013-Champs. With Big Papi WS MVP
    And who says it can’t happen under Ruben and with Ryan Howard in Philly in 2014!

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    1. Exactly!!!! When the Cardinals lose in baseball, for me, it’s like the Cowboys losing in football, the Celtics losing in basketball and the Penguins losing in hockey – it’s a favorable outcome!

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      1. I would have preferred that St. Louis won because Boston Red Sox fans are so obnoxious where Cardinals fans are just smug in my opinion.

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  19. Think 1964, think JD Drew, think Scott Rolen, think playoffs 3 years ago. No I would want the cards to win !

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  21. Cardinal fans, from what I have heard and read, are very low key, if they lose they say wait until next year, I love that boston has another title, how many is that 17 in basketball , 4 superbowl I think, plus there hockey and baseball, nice job boston, your town is a winner, congradulation to you and shane,

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  23. Pretty cool, but slightly dated, article about Scott Mathieson in Japan. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if, after making enough money to be comfortable, Mathieson came back in a year or two for a final try a la Ryan Vogelsong. Mathieson is still throwing in the mid to high 90s, hitting 100 at one point. He sure does have talent – but it ain’t easy being a major league pitcher. By the way, if he doesn’t make the Phils or another major league team next year, it wouldn’t surprise me if BJ Rosenberg were also to take a flyer on playing in Japan.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/magazine/scott-mathieson-a-canadian-fireballer-in-japan/

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      1. Well, I’d prefer that too. Rosenberg absolutely has the stuff to be a quality major league reliever, perhaps even a high leverage situation reliever, but he has to hone his command and remain mentally tough. But the arm and the stuff is there, as it is for a number of the Phillies’ young bullpen arms.

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    1. Ruben will outbid himself. I hope for the sake of us all that Ruben does not go out and over spend on one of these free agents

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      1. Since, I assume, they will all get QOs, Phillies will lose their second round pick, which I guess will be around the 45 through 50 area pick, if they do indeed sign one of them.

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      2. Not sure if they sign anyone with a draft pick associated with it unless it is a bargain. I have a feeling the new sabremetrics person will have a big role in who we sign.

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        1. I have a hard time seeing them relyng too much on the new sabremetrics guy. I think he is there as a token window dressing, but we will have to see. These “old school” baseball types sometimes have a hard-time giving up there old methods (and their power) over such decisions.

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  25. Tigers not bringing back Jose Veras after just 25 games and half-a-year.
    Ruben become a salesman and sell them Paps.

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  27. I do not like the extensive use of averages to measure starting-pitcher effectiveness, both historically and by the sabermetric community. I’d much prefer to see a set of statistics that shows how many good starts, bad starts, and mediocre starts a pitcher has.

    One approach would be to identify how many starts went nine innings, eight innings, seven innings, etc.; how many starts in which the pitcher gave up no runs, one run, two runs,etc; how many starts in which the pitcher struck out ten batters, nine batters, eight batters, etc.; and the same kind of breakdown for walks, homers, hits, etc. This information could then be used to identify how many good starts a pitcher has and what a good start is “likely” to be for each pitcher; how many bad starts a pitcher has and what a bad start is likely to be; and the same for each mediocre start.

    For presentation purposes, only the information about the distribution of good starts, bad starts, and mediocre starts would be presented and only the likely results. Those interested could drill down for the details.

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      1. I think WHIP is one of the better pitching stats used, but what I am suggesting is a departure from the way we currently look at starting pitchers.

        For example, we could say about Pitcher A for the 2013 season that he was good in 21 or 65% of his starts with a likely line score that looked like this:
        6 2/3-7 2/3 IP 4-6 H 1-2 R 1-2 ER 1-2 BB 6-8 K 0-1 HR;
        that he was mediocre in 8 or 25% of his starts and his likely line score looked like this:
        5-6 IP 4-6 H 4 R 4 ER 2-3 BB 4 K 1 HR;
        and that he was bad in 3 or 10% of his starts with a likely line score that looked like this:
        3-4 IP 6-8 H 5-7 R 5-7 ER 3 BB 2 K 1-2 HR.

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        1. I like the idea. It is like the idea of the quality start with a few more moving parts (K’s and BB’s) and less reliant on a fielding dependent pitching measure (ER). One problem comes up is when a start crosses categories say:
          8 IP 10 H 3 ER 1 BB 10 K 1 HR.

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    2. This has merit, especially for #4/5 starters. Even for guys near the top of the rotation, it is good to know if their stats are driven by 1 in 5 awful starts, with the other 80% being very good, as opposed to being consistently meh slightly worse than average in every start. This is especially true of relievers, who can be very good in 85% of their appearances and have their stats crushed by the other 15% of their appearances. It seems there are two axes for pitchers’ performance: how good are you when you are on your game and how consistently you are on your game. That’s also why I don’t like pitcher roulette with 4 or 5 relievers appearing in the last 2 or 3 innings of a game. If most relievers are good only 80-85% of the time, then your odds of hitting the bad outing become fairly high when you use that many pitchers. I’d much rather stick with the RHRP who has just retired two righties than bring in a LHRP to face the lefty.

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      1. Reminds me of A.J. Burnett in 2012. He had a good but not great line of 16-10 W-L 3.51 ERA 2.8 BB/9 8.0 K/9.. However over 70% of his starts were quality starts., He gave up over 4 ER only 3 times on the year but was left in to take 12 ER in one 2.2 IP start..

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        1. A.J. had a better quality start percentage than Cliff Lee that year who had a 6-9 W-L 3.16 ERA 1.2 BB/9 7.3 K/9.

          Note I am not saying that Burnett is a better pitcher than Lee or that QS is the best stat. just that it is illuminating things that get lost in averaged stat lines.

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  28. This question is directed to Matt Winks or to anyone that has a solid understanding of WAR.

    I understand the value of using WAR, and am all for using it as a basis to start a comparison of free agents and such, but….
    Let’s just say that there is a team (an extreme example to make a point) that has a .100 winning percentage against lefty starters and a .750 winning percentage against righties… clearly they absolutely dominate righty pitchers and are atrocious against lefties. Lets say they score 5 runs per game against righty starters and 3 runs per game against lefty starters.

    If you had the option between two free agents, a righty hitter with a 3 WAR or a lefty hitter with a 6 WAR…. WAR would say the lefty would add 3 more wins over the righty hitter.
    Even if the Righty hitter adds .2 Runs per game against lefty pitchers and the Lefty hitter adds .3 runs per game against righty starters…. isn’t it likely that the righty hitter would help that team out more. The wins added with going from 3 to 3.2 runs per game against lefties could outweigh the wins added with going from 5 to 5.3 runs per game against righties.

    Basically, if you think this is true…. do you think it would be better to compare potential free agents into— runs added per game vs lefties and runs added per game vs lefties… and then from there figure out the wins added to the phillies specifically rather than just to a normal team.

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    1. I will take the better player 100% of the time. If it is that big a gap in WAR they are doing more than mashing against one type of pitching, such as adding defensive or positional value. The other reason to just go with the better player is that team composition can change quickly and so when adding a player on a long term deal you don’t want the guy built for this year, you want the guy for the whole contract. If you are talking bench players and platoon guys then yes you should look at lineup construction. Once you start creating false need you are sending 3 top prospects away for Hunter Pence or giving up first round picks and questionable contracts to Ibanez and Papelbon

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      1. I might go for the 3 WAR RH hitter, but I wouldn’t pay nearly as much as I would for the 6 WAR LH hitter, who is worth far more to a less imbalanced team than my hypothetical team above. If I have a guy with as extreme splits as Howard has, I might look first for a cheap guy with the reverse split. Since that guy’s split is negative against 70% of the pitching he faces, he likely has a poor overall WAR but is the ideal platoon guy for Howard. Ruf isn’t that huge platoon split sort of guy. Hewitt is, but he isn’t ready, even to bat against only LHP in MLB — but a young MLB player with splits close to Hewitts would be regarded as fairly worthless if he had been playing as a starter and would likely be very cheap, possibly even a discard on the AAAA pile or a guy not offered arb.

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        1. “Hewitt is, but he isn’t ready”

          Huh? Are we seriously discussing Hewitt in any fashion as a possible contributor to the big club in 2014 or at any time beyond that? Even in a hypothetical sense his reference is still a bit silly. And I’m very aware of Hewitt’s AA splits but even the most optimistic valuation should still describe his ceiling as one of a AAAA player

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          1. A AAAA player can be a great half, or really quarter, of a platoon, even though he totally sucks as a starter against all pitchers. That’s the beauty of platooning. It takes two roster spots, but you turn two inadequate players into one quite good player, while also having an effective pinch hitter on your bench. This worked great for the 1993 Phillies. If Hewitt hit against RHP as well as he hits LHP, he would have earned a mid-season promotion to Allentown and we’d be singing his praise. The fact that he can only excel in a quarter of his batting situations does not in any way reduce the value of those quarter of his AB. Platooning him allows the team to throw in the dumpster the other 3/4 of his AB situations, in which he is hopelessly overmatched by RHP. As I stated, I’m not considering Hewitt for 2014 in Philly — he just isn’t developed enough to be ready for that, but a AAA/AAAA guy with Hewitt’s extreme splits, who is good defensively at 1B, would be an ideal platoon partner for Howard. I really don’t care how dreadful the platoon guy is against RHP.

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            1. Gotcha A’town. And I certainly agree that Howard is a platoon candidate and I still think Ruf is the obvious counter. Whether or not the FO actually sits Howard for 40 games a year is another story. Somehow I doubt that he ends up sitting against lefties

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            2. My concern with that is that Ruf wasn’t that great against LHP in 2013. His splits have been quite balanced. That’s good for him as a candidate for a full-time starting role, but doesn’t make him stand out as a platoon candidate.

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            3. Depends on how you look at it I guess. In comparison to Howard’s split against lefties, Ruf looks fabulous. I’m also not convinced that Ruf can’t perform much better against lefties in 2014 under the notion that the SSS in the majors this year was something of an outlier. He was solid if unspectacular against lefties this year at LV, and though I’m unable to find his 2012 minor league splits, I believe he OPS’d well over .800 against lefties during his time with Reading.

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            4. He also didn’t have much of a LH/RH split in AAA this season. I’m not saying he can’t hit lefties, simply that he is not so unbalanced in his stats to seem a guy who should be platooned.

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            5. Well atown hate to burst your bubble on Anthony Hewitt, but Hewitt could be a Rule 5 victim in December by some club thinking like you.

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            7. It’s possible. $25K is cheap for a look-see and a second division team might well take him and use him as a pinch hitter or platoon guy. He’s got a full season of AA, so it’s not impossible that he could stick with another team. I’m sure we don’t put him on the 40-man. Probably just 1 in 4 odds somebody drafts him.

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            8. Hewitt wasn’t good at all prior to this season against LHP. Anything’s possible, but it’s highly unlikely he’s taken in the rule 5 because of 125 ABs against AA LHP. I know that you’re just using him as an example, Allentown, but Hewitt isn’t going to be a rule 5 guy. Whatever team drafted him would be ignoring a huge track record of not hitting against either side.

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      2. I’d mostly agree with that and I would love the Phillies to bring in Jacoby, which is an upgrade in CF defense and allows Revere to play LF which is an upgrade since he can hide his arm strength there.

        But I still think there needs to be a point where this logic may hold true (but maybe not in an realistic situation). Like if your 1-3, and 5-8 hitters all were bad against lefties and very good against righties (so still good enough to compete), and you needed a LF for the 2013 season.
        Option 1) Dom Brown 2.5WAR / .724 OPS vs LHP / .857 OPS vs RHP
        Option 2) Yoenis Cespedes 1.7WAR / .880 OPS vs LHP / .672 OPS vs RHP

        If you had to pick just 1 and got their 2013 stats, is Dom still the better choice? and if this is true (which is very well could be), why is it assumed that we are going after a RH bat this offseason and not just the best available outfielder.

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      3. Another extreme example to show my point.

        Made up Team: Historically unreal vs RH pitchers and historically bad against LH pitchers

        Scenario 1: 120 games vs RH pitchers and a player improves the runs scored per game against RH pitchers from 10 to 10.5, that .5 runs is not extremely relevant because that would only be in a very small percentage of games that the LH hitter is actually improving your odds of winning since he is only adding 5% more runs to your lineup.

        Scenario 2: 42 games against LHP and you sign a RH hitter that increases your runs per game from 1 to 1.3, he is increasing your runs in those games by 30% which should give your team a much higher chance to win those games than you would previously had.

        Yes, this is not a possible scenario, but it shows that while you can look at each free agent in terms of WAR and how many of those players we will need to be a playoff team, you also need to look at the team specifically because the WAR isn’t always a great measure for an atypical team.

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    2. How do you incorporate the fact that the a team like the Phillies in 2012 faced right-hnded pitchers 72% of their PAs? I can understand if the disposition of PAs was 50-50 but what happens to the result when it is not that?

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      1. My example was simply the extreme, to show my opinion of WAR. I am not against WAR at all and find it to be an extremely valuable tool to compare players, but I just wanted to raise the point that players with lower WAR can help specific teams more if that team is already strong in the aspect of the game that the player is bad at and weak at the aspect of the game that the player is good at.
        Basically, my example was to show that WAR isn’t team specific. While a player with a higher WAR may be a better player and add more wins to the typical MLB team, it isn’t always the case when a team is atypical (possibly the Phillies).
        Don’t get me wrong though, I think Jacoby will help the Phillies more than any other FA OF even though he is a lefty, but I also think that when you start comparing players with less than 1 WAR difference, it comes down to how they can fit on your team.

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        1. Drew, WAR is a comparison to league average. It does not project the marginal contribution a player will make to an existing team’s lineup, although we loosely use it that way. I would say it is helpful to understand directionally what might happen. There is no estimate of the impact of the player on a specific team or other players in a lineup, that is clear. The metric is a great for discussion but as with all statistics, it is best to know its limitations as well.

          The stats to try to isolate baseball wins into specific outcomes – a strike, and out, etc. But each outcome is interrelated. If you replace a player in our lineup with another who gets on base more, or sees more pitches per plate appearance… we wonder aloud whether this ripples through the lineup.

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  29. Ruben be creative……trade Paps, Ruf and Pettibone to the Tigers for LF Nick Castellanos and a A-ball pitching prospect……sign Garza or Phil Highes…….try and get Masa Tanaka from the NPL.

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      1. Yeah, that would be creative to get Detroit to pass along their perceived best prospect plus more for that package. Most promising negotiating strategy , bring a gun.

        The bad part of the Phil Highes thing is that if there was a Phil Highes he might contribute as much to PHILA victories next season as the Homer prone and FlyBall prone Phil Hughes would. If there wasn’t a Phil Highes they’d have to invent him. And Garza has had some injury questions that make the long term big money likely required to sign him appear to be a possible road map to more of the same Philly-wise .

        Yeah, they can try to get Tanaka from Japan. Trying doesn’t cost a dime. Reading more lately, it appears a consensus is building that Tanaka will cost in excess of the 52 million paid in posting fees to Yu Darvish. An article to the recent Hard Ball Talk in an anonymous quote from a General Manager speculates on an 80 million posting fee.
        So, if you believe that Monty and the crew are going to pass along up to 80 million in payment to a Japanese team (payable in full within one calendar year by rule)
        and in the process sign Tanaka to a big long-term contract, well Rave On.

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        1. Agree. Hughes would be a bad fit in Philly. There’s probably a dozen pitchers available who I would choose before Hughes

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        2. Buyer beware. Apparently, Tanaka recently threw 160 (160!!!!!) pitches in winning a Japanese World Series game and then threw relief in the next game! I’m not so sure I want that arm. I don’t think it’s entirely a coincidence that some of the best Japanese arms have been the second tier guys who may not have had their arms abused in Japan.

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          1. He is 25 next year, so youth is still on his side. History also has that Japanese arms do fairly well in the MLB. Maybe not number ones in the rotation but fairly consistent performers.

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          2. He lost that game after stringing a 30 game unbeaten streak. I’d like to hear from former MLB players who have faced him in Japan to get their opinions on him (having also faced MLB level pitching)

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  30. Today I expecet Ruben to offer Qualifying Offers to Doc and Chooch , with the, what is becoming a standard practice in the MLB with GMs, a ‘Raul Ibanez handshake agreement’.
    I wonder how many other GMs and teams do this?
    Its no wonder , when it comes to the Rule 4 draft that the second round picks are further down starting in the low forties with the supplemental comp picks awarded.

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    1. The handshake deal no longer exists. Under the old system teams would make handshake deals with Type B free agents because the signing team would not have to give up a pick and so it did not hurt their market. No team is going to give Doc or Chooch a lucrative contract and give up a first round pick, so for either of them to receive an offer and decline it would severely hurt their market. Both would accept that offer if extended.

      Additionally under the old system you got 2 comp picks for a FA going away, one of which was the signing team’s pick. Now the signing team’s pick just goes away and the comp picks go in after the first round. The length of the first round is limited by this as the only picks that lengthen the first round are those generated by signing teams who either have protected picks or are signing multiple FAs and so the lost pick is in the 2nd round or beyond.

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      1. Though concerning Chooch.
        If the Yankees fail in signing someone like Brian McCann, they may take a chance with a 2 plus one option/vest deal on Chooch. at $7/8M per annum.

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    2. Romus – suggesting QOs to Halladay and/or Chooch is one of the most ridiculous statements I’ve ever seen on this site

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    1. Agree with your assesment, Leo has had past success with the Atlanta staffs of the 90s but his age maybe working against him now.
      Oddly, Leo did like to rythmatically sway to and fro while sitting on the bench.

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  32. Tim Dierkes, MLBTR, sees Phillies going for Nelson Cruz, Ricky Nolasco and keeping Chooch in the FA market,
    And with one of 14 teams taking and considering a look-see at Tanaka.

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    1. Blech!!!!! I can’t think of two more overpriced, likely to underperform, candidates than Cruz and Nolasco.

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      1. Yeah- no thanks on Nolasco. I don’t want Cruz either but have resigned myself to the fact that they are going to go after him hard. Not sure I’ve ever dreaded a Phillies offseason as much as I do this one.

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  33. With free agency about ready to begin what you say about this?
    Catcher—;Dioner Navarro (30) vs Chooch (35)….sign Navarro for 2 years plus one.
    In 2/3 years, excluding Rupp, one of the following should have more on their resume for evaluation…Joseph, Knapp, Grullon, Lino, Sweaney or Moore

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    1. I’ve seen Navarro come up multiple times now. Why? You shouldn’t get younger just for the sake of getting younger. He’s not good.

      I’d rather keep Chooch around. At worst he’s a fan favorite. Besides, even if you believe Dioner is an upgrade, which I absolutely do not, he is by no stretch of the imagination enough of one to make us playoff contenders.

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      1. IMO, he gives you better power, plus he has plenty of experience with over 600 games behind the plate and is 5 years younger.
        His defense is not all that terrible and he has played in play-off games.
        Chooch, OTOH, tailed off last year due to the drug thing and the injury on his return, but at 35 ,there raises too many question marks for a catcher at that age.
        If he gets the QO, then Phillies will let him go after the one year (2014), then it is back to finding another long-term guy and do you want to go in with the youngsters. Rupp is the only one I see that may be ready for full-time work in 2015. Or you go shopping again FA.

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        1. Ruiz absolutely will NOT get a QO from the Phillies. He isn’t remotely worth $14.1 mill for next season, especially for a team which is unlikely to make post-season.

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        2. So the best you can say about Navarro is his defense isn’t terrible and his offense isn’t good either. Ruiz played more games than Navarro this year, by the way. And that’s after he was suspended.

          Between the two, I would take Ruiz. But here’s the thing: they aren’t our only options. Navarro shouldn’t be anyone’s first choice as anything other than a back-up.

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