General Discussion – Week of 10-21-2013 – World Series Envydition

Weekly Discussion

Couldn’t be happier for the two teams in the World Series right now.

That was totally sarcastic.

Discuss.

175 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 10-21-2013 – World Series Envydition”

  1. Honestly, if it’s not the Phillies, I don’t have a problem with the Cardinals being in the Series. They’re a well-run organization, great farm system, and always seem to be contending. Even if they have a down year, they re-tool from within, rarely going for the big free-agent splash.

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    1. Totally agree with you here. There’s nobody that I can think of at the moment on the Cardinals that I would really want to root against either. Seems like a bunch of scrappy good guys. It’s exactly what I’d want to see in Philly.

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  2. I am really checked out on the postseason, there was no one I really wanted to root for other than the Rays and Pirates, wanted the Dodgers to win only because I hate the Cardinals. I have been putting a lot of time in behind the scenes for this offseason.

    Some fun things floating around:
    – Minor League Top 100, it is a fun exercise in evaluating your own prospects
    – Earlier Reader Top 30
    – More individual reports and hopefully better and more integrated player profiles
    – Some general knowledge posts
    – A million posts about guys who have yet to make it to full season ball

    Expect a lot of content this off season.

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    2. Your last item certainly tickles my fancy. What I have really missed is the normal post-season report on guys who are the ‘real prospects’ and ‘chance prospects’ from the Dominican and Venezuelan leagues — how the big signees did from a scouting as well as stat standpoint, who rose to the top (especially age-appropriate) of the non-big-bonus guys, which of the older guys who did well have good enough tools to have a chance, who is likely to come to the US next summer.

      Also — anything you are able to find that hints of changes in the Phillies approach of the past half dozen season — coaching, instruction, draft and international scouting approach, draft and international bonus philosophy, possible entry into Asia — would be appreciated. How much of a difference will the departure of Manuel and Dubee make, not to mention a poor W/L (I know that is a bad measure of minors) record in minors and the second dreadful season at the major league level?

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  3. I’m happy for Victorino, but that’s it. So I guess I hope the Red Sox win. Also, St. Louis got to celebrate a WS victory for an 83 win team, so boo, Cardinals.

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    1. Man…I hear you on that one. I’ve numerous reasons for hating the Cards (and their fans). Almost all of my bias with the Cards comes from jealousy, annoyance, midwestern douche-baggery, and the fact that We Phillie fans are in suffering mode. That being said…the 2006 Cardinals were an abomination of nature!!!!! Just…..ugh….screw them and their AWESOME farm system and their well run front office and their positive happy fans, and their OK-ness with putting young SP’s into bullpen roles like in the good ol days of the 50/60/70’s and make them earn their keep and pay their dues.
      again…ugh

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      1. +1
        Stop me if you’ve heard this one – The difference between a Phillies fan and a Cardinals fan is that the Phillies fan would boo Jesus if he played for the Phillies and was performing poorly. The Cardinals fan would cheer Osama Bin Laden if he wore a Cardinals jersey – even if he performed poorly.

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        1. I refuse to type LOL…but i laughed in such a way as to be heard by others in my vicinity after reading that…..now imagine I typed a little smiley face.

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  4. How about Manuel as the Tigers manager, I mean where else would he fit in so perfectly? Pretty much a veteran team that mash plus with the DH he wouldn’t have to think as much as he did with the Phillies (however I never thought he was a bad manager with the Phillies). As much as id like to see him in the Phillies FO as an advisor I think it would be a perfect fit for both Manuel and Detroit.

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  5. Let the cold winds remind us that dreaded ” WINTER MEETINGS ” are coming. That will be where
    FO screws up next year this year

    Good for Vic

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  6. I was on ESPN.com, looking at the final stats. The stats were even worse than I thought. The Phillies gave up 139 more runs than they scored – which was the worst in the NL, and 3rd worst in baseball. The Phillies gave up 749 runs, which was second worst in the NL only to the Rockies (at 760). The Phillies only scored 610 runs, which was 3rd worst in the NL.

    The Braves gave up 201 runs fewer than the Phillies.
    The Marlins averaged 3.17 runs per game.
    The Astros lost their last 15 of the year. I would have thought with a bunch of young players that hey would have played out the string – guess not though.

    Not surprisingly, the Red Sox and Cardinals had the best run differentials in baseball (Red Sox at +197, Cardinals at +187).

    I will be cheering on the Cardinals.

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    1. Again I say, thank you Mr. Amaro for screwing up my baseball team. While Amaro has had his fair share of bad luck, much of this decline was predictable. My concern is that he further mortgages the future this year by trading young players we will need to really re-tool the team in order to give an already over-the-hill core an alleged chance to contend. But my concern is less with Amaro than it is with upper management who I believe is firmly stuck in the past that, when they look to replace Amaro, they will pick another old fashioned GM who will do little to revitalize the team. I guess we’ll see but it defies comprehension how Amaro could inhert a young-ish championship team, a pretty decent farm system, a supportive management team and a real economic powerhouse and turn it into this boring, overpaid, underperforming steaming turd in only 5 years.. Shame on him and shame on the Phillies’ management for allowing him to to do it.

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      2. Amaro is batting .280ish as GM. I’m sure the front office sees nothing wrong with his performance and instead blames the decline on injuries and bad luck

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        2. Five years as the GM, and each year’s final outcome has declined one increment from the previous year. Time for the graph to start trending upwards.

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          1. Now that’s not fair – even I can tell you that. It’s hard for a GM to control postseason outcomes. Ruben objectively “improved” the on field team from 2009 through 2011 and that improvement was reflected in their regular season record – they really did get better. The problem was that his moves were almost all designed to sacrifice the future for the present and that he did and now, here were are in the “future” with an overpaid team that is old and, at least judging by the 2013 season, pretty damned bad.

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            1. Good point and thanks for being somewhat objective to their record vs. post season.

              It is difficult to recover from the ‘mortgating’ done. I agree with the philosophy though. Prospects are fickle while Lee, Halladay, Pence did not seem to be and there are only so many chances when you are the best team in baseball.

              He did have some unlucky events but so have many teams (RedSox on their 3rd Closer), but the lack of quality depth has been obvious. The resurgence of some prominent players on other teams just rubs it in: Vogelsong, Grilli, Moss from the minors, then Werth, Pence, Victorino, and Ibanez (how did that happen?).

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            2. How do you figure Werth, Pence, and Victorino were “resurgences” for other teams? Firstly, only Werth walked in FA and I think we still all agree that contract is ridiculous. With the contracts we currently have, no way I want a contract even approaching Werth’s on our team.

              Secondly, Pence has been pretty consistent through his career. He had somewhat of a down year when we traded him, but that’s just baseball. Victorino was traded a year after he put up quasi-MVP numbers. If anything, the Phils were responsible for the resurgences of Vic and Werth.

              I’ll give you Grilli and Moss (Moss burns me the most, honestly), maybe Vogelsong. But even in hindsight I don’t want Ibanez on this team. Good guy. Terrible defender. He should only DH. So what, 2 or 3 guys that have burned us when we let them walk over the past decade or so? That’s pretty par for the course in baseball. Remember, after all, that we picked up Vic and Werth off the scrap heap; Polanco, Ibanez, and Pierre are a handful of names that had a big year for us after we basically stole them.

              Oh, and if you ever feel bad about the players we’ve let walk, remember this; Chris Davis was traded for a reliever (Uehara)… and he wasn’t even the only piece sent to Baltimore for him.

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            3. The fact of the matter is that their finished results each year was worst then the previous year…and isn’t that the bottom-line.
              Are the Cardinals fans complaining about an 83 win season when they went onto win the WS!

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            4. No, that isn’t the bottom line. Ruben deserves a lot of criticism. But putting the best team in baseball on the field is not something he has to answer for. He gave us the best chance of any team to win it all. It’s not his fault that the players didn’t deliver (and likewise it isn’t the players’ fault they got unlucky and happened to run into the World Champs 3 times in a row). The best team doesn’t usually win championships (the hottest teams do, that’s not something you can plan or practice), but that’s still what each GM should strive to put on the field.

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      3. I think Amaro made a clear choice to load up and mortgage the future to win now a few years ago. That was great, but poor free agent choices and prospect development takes its toll. The bullpen pieces are where he put a good many chips in player development… And the results were not timely.

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        1. How can I move forward when he’s still there, still making decisions, still screwing up, still not able to distinguish a good player from a bad player, still telling us that OBP doesn’t matter? I don’t hate him as a person, but I’m trying to see the light at the end of the tunnel and nothing would thrill me more than him having a wonderful off season. And it’s funny because, in a vacuum, many of the moves he makes are fine, but the overall philosophy and strategy has not been balanced.

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          1. Catch show up at the next off-season season-ticket holder meeting/get-together at CBP, December or January there is one scheduled, and when they take questions from the audience voice your concerns.
            Then pull out your Glock and wave it around…that will get their attention! (you know that was a joke)

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            1. Actually, that’s a really good idea. I think I will show up at that – let me know how I can find out when it is scheduled and if others from this site are there I’ll be happy to say hi and, yes, I’ll ask Ruben a tough question (or more than one if they let me). I’m not joking, I’ll do it. And I’ll be very respectful, but I’ll put him on the spot.

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            2. Look, I have to give the organization some credit. They really do care a ton about the Phillies and they care about the fans an awful lot, and not just in terms of making your experience at the park better (they are great at this) or wanting to put a good team on the field (they really do), but also in terms of giving you the players they think you’d like to see (they put waaaay too much stock in this if you ask me – fan preferences are somewhat relevant but the most important factor is putting the best team on the field possible even if a given player move – typically a decision not to re-signed a player – may irk the fans a little). They are also very committed to dedicating serious financial resources to the team – they are not looking to skim every dollar from the fans. And I do think they can, at times, make tough decisions and they are, not surprisingly, considered among the best franchises to be a player or employee – they obviously treat people well. The Phillies are “good people” and they get the Philadelphia fan (something I think eludes the Eagles and is probably irrelevant to the Sixers).

              All of that said, I’m concerned that the game is starting to pass them by a little bit. They are “old school” at a time when I don’t think that’s going to work very well and the worst example of this is Amaro himself who seems like he’s assembling a team in the 1970s with a 1970s perspective and analytical tools. In a way, they are a lot like the Flyers, for better or worse.

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          2. Catch, relax baseball is not life and it is not my main focus. Just give him the chance to rebuild as he did a nice job keeping us on top for three years following FO instructions and he has some young players coming. If he can’t than don’t renew his contract when it runs out.

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            1. Dear Lord, I know baseball isn’t real life. It’s just my hobby and I’m passionate about it but I’ve got a lot more important things going on in my life than baseball – believe me.

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      5. RAJ did not inherit a good farm system. Also, I think his mandate was WIN NOW. The wheels came off the wagon in 2012 and this year the wagon split in half at the MLB level. His 2010 and 2011 teams were excellent. Lack of post-season success is not on him.

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  7. Dom Brown on Philly fans:
    9:40 AM – 21 Oct 2013
    Domonic Brown ✔ @dom9brown
    …..Philly doesn’t love me . I get boo’s almost everynight . No big deal use to it.

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    1. This position is in no way influenced by the recent tweets, but I’d honestly listen to offers for Brown in the off-season. I wouldn’t aggressively look to move him by any means, but I’d certainly listen. Moving guys like DBrown and Lee might actually get us in contention by 2015

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      1. Philadelphia fans are deserving of their reputation with making an issue out of this harmless incident. I don’t care what football jersey Dom Brown wears in the off season as long as he plays well.

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        1. Unfortunately it goes beyond the ’88 Cowboys ‘ jersey with Dom. When he tweeted yesterday, ‘ I get boo’s almost everynight’, it is obvious he is wearing a Phillies jersay at CBP in LF 70/80 days in the summer.
          So this latest episode at the Link, is just icing on the cake in his mind.
          I am with Steve in Tampa….if you get reasonable offers, explore and listen to them.

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          1. Of all the reasons I’ve ever heard for moving a player, frankly, this may be among the worst. If you get an offer you can’t refuse for Dom Brown, sure, you can trade him and I’m not saying that he should be excluded from settlement talks. But his Twitter quips and wearing of a Cowboys Jersey really rise to the level of the virtually irrelevant.

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            2. He’s young, the team has sucked and eveyone’s down. I hear you, but I don’t think it’s a big issue in any way at the present time. If Dom does well, he’ll feel the love.

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            3. Tweets notwithstanding Catch – I was equally open to the notion before the recent Twitter story. I like DBrown, I’m just not convinced that his future includes any semblance to a star player. It’s an unlikely scenario anyway as RAJ needs to put a winner on the field next season if he’s to retain his job

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            4. I don’t think there’s any validity for this assumption. In fact, Monty has strongly implied that RAJ doesn’t need to win next season to keep his job.

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            5. That just makes me sick, that amaro doesnt have to win to keep his job, as a fan, really cant see what monty sees in amaro. I must be missing something. What is it with these owners in this town, the eagles have a accountant in charge who stinks, yet he has laurie loving him. the flyers keep hiring gms from there past teams, who stinks, and are outdated, dont get the logic,

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      2. Only problem with trading Brown and Lee is, Amaro is the one making the decision on who they get in return. I have no confidence that all of a sudden he has developed the ability to pick out someone who could actually play Major League Baseball.

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  8. A “general” question: If I were commissioner, I would….
    My answers
    1) continue to strengthen the PED suspensions (I think many players would now be supportive of this)
    2) find ways to shorten the game. get the games from 2:54 down to 2:40. If no one is on base, make it so that a batter cannot step out. Yes Ryan Howard, I am talking to you (and many other players)
    3) uniform policy: not sure why this one gets to me – but get a uniform policy. No pine-tar stained helmets. no super-baggy pants. Enforce the uniform policy like the NFL.
    4) get rid of tobacco. I don’t want to see Raul Ibanez go up there with a huge wad of chew. My 9 year old son mimics him – he has no idea it is tobacco, but I don’t want to have to answer the questions he asks. If you get caught with tobacco, you get fined, and then collect the fine and give it to charity at the end of the year.

    Signed – cranky old man.

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    1. Agreed on 1 and 2, don’t really care about 3 and am fine with 4 if you can get it done.

      I am dreading the brutally stupid instant reply rules that are about to be unleashed on us – it’s going to add 15 minutes to almost every game because there teams won’t want to “waste” their challenges. I get using some more instant replay at times and I understand giving the teams a right to challenge because major league umpires are among the most bull headed humans on this planet, but to go from a system with no challenges to a system with multiple challenges for each team every game is just grossly excessive and unnecessary.

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      1. I think I am okay with the replay – in fact – I support it. Perhaps I will be wrong, but I don’t see it adding 15 minutes to each game. If it does add significant time, then something will need to be done to speed it up.

        regarding replay – I hadn’t thought about this before, but some parts of the game will (possibly) change. My scenario: bases loaded, 1 out, bottom 9th inning, tie game. Batter hits a ball to the 2nd baseman, who tosses to second. the SS comes across the bag, and is not in contact with the bag when the ball is caught – but he is in the ‘neighborhood’. SS completes the turn, and throws to first for the double play. Inning over, right? Umps have always allowed the neighborhood play. But, with replay, how does this change things? If the SS clearly did not have possession of the ball, how can you call the guy out?
        This is one example – there are likely others – in which replay may change parts of the game.

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        1. I think it’s cool – the neighborhood play will be gone or on the way out. It’s a nonsense play/out to begin with. You either get the guy out or you don’t. I am a little concerned, however, about ultra hard/dirty baserunning to force fielders off bags. There may be more calls of runner interference if runners get overly aggressive.

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            1. I absoluted agree with this.
              It is dumb practice, purposefully attempting to injure, and causes problems throughout the lower leagues of baseball. Catchers have enough ways to be injured.

              Is there are rule about being able to run over a catcher in the rule book? Does rule book say it is NOT allowed at any other base?

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    2. I like when players wear their socks and pants like old school players, so I would be against the uniform policy. Also, since some pitchers have to wear long sleeves to cover tattoos, would that necessitate that all players wear long sleeves at all times? I don’t think it would go over too well.

      I’d be fine with the other changes. On number 4: I don’t like to see it; it’s a gross habit. I was going to say that they’re grown men, so maybe it doesn’t make sense to force them to stop on those grounds. But you know, it’s only 2-3 hours out of a day so I think they can handle being without it. It’s not like other players are lighting up cigarettes in the dugout.

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      1. oh – you are making me question my own changes that I am proposing! I too like the hiked up socks, and am okay with long sleeves.

        I will modify my stance: no pine tar helmets. No Manny Ramirez style clown pants. Also, get rid of elbow body armor. I guess I am okay with the shin guards – but no arm guards.

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        1. Yes, I think there’s a happy medium between the Not Fun League and the Anything Goes MLB. Players must be required to wear the full uniform and there should be general guidlines about uniform specifications – no excessively dirty helmets, overly baggy pants, overly distracting jewelry on pitchers, etc. . . . . Players should be given a warning or two to comply and, if not, the players should simply not be permitted to take the field “out of uniform” – which means they will have to change their helmet or baggy pants or whatever. There will be one jerk every so often that pushes the envelope but on the whole it won’t be an issue.

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          1. 15 second clock between snap of ball in the catcher’s glove and the next pitch. If batter leaves the box, automatic strike.
            If the pitcher fails to throw, automatic ball
            Clock will be behind home plate= easy to see

            No more time outs. No reason for that

            tighter uniforms.. maybe will convince some of the fat guys to get in shape

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            1. and rule= if you come in the game, you have to face more than one batter, unless you give up a hit or walk (or are injured)

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            2. baseball= unwatchable.

              4+ hour games are ridiculous (NFL is heading there too.. too long!)

              East Coast games should start no later than 730 PM even post-season. Not fair to kepe people up to 1230-1 AM

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    3. A bigger way to shorten the game is not to allow trips to the mound other than to change pitchers. Apply the rule to both coaches, catchers, and other players. Enforce consistent rules between NL and AL. No other sport has different rules for its different leagues, let alone a sport with interleague play. This is beyond ridiculous.

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    1. I believe you are speaking of this guy. Steve Adams at MLBTraderumors had the following.

      Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald writes that another Cuban defector, right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne, has worked out for teams in Spain but plans to travel to Mexico to put on a bigger showcase for MLB clubs. According to Ebro, the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Mariners and Mets have all seen Despaigne throw in Barcelona, but the showcase in Mexico “will have a more official character.”
      a bit of additional context is provided in the link below.
      http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/philadelphia_phillies/index.html

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  10. Just wanted to post a few things in real time.

    Here’s a link to The Good Phight with two great potential pieces of news – haven’t read the articles yet but will presently.

    1. Phils to sign huge new TV deal – obviously a great, great thing, assuming deal will remain market competitive over time.

    2. Phils to sign stats guru – again, very positive and the crux of my main criticism of the team and the Amaro administration. I don’t want Amaro to fail. I want him to evolve and succeed – let’s just make that clear. But if he doesn’t evolve, I want him to be replaced.

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    2. ‘Phils to sign stats guru’…..congratulations MattWinks.
      However, will this interfere with your PhuturePhillies writing?

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  11. The talk about Dom is silly. Cowboys fan? Who cares… The fans boo him? Yes they do, when he screws up. I’ve talked to many ex-players and its a common fact throughout all of sports that Philly is a tough place to play when you’re not winning but a great place to play when you are. None of this has any relevance on Dom the player.
    As far as RAJ, I’m not at all confident that he’ll make the right moves to get this team back on top. They need to sign a legit #3 FA starter, trade for an OF who can field and hit (this will not be easy and might cost a lot), sign another starter to compete with Pettibone for the #5 spot, sign a lefthanded pinch hitter to compete with Cesar for a spot on the bench, sign a catcher, and sign and trade KK for a reliever. That’s a lot to do but it all needs to be done if they want a chance to compete. Otherwise, they should trade Lee for a big time prospect OF and sign 2 FA starters. The odds of all this happening are not great.

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    1. I really like the idea of bringing Phil Hughes in here. I’d love to see what he could do outside of New York and in the National League.

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        1. that’s not a a bad idea at all. You’d probably have to pay Garza $13-14 million a year for about 4 or 5 years, but he’s a horse and should generate at least that value in return. Hughes is an interesting gamble. Arm is still strong (no dip in velocity) and is still very young. I’d give him a year ($6 million?) with an option ($10 plus $3 m buyout? Sound about right?). If Hughest doesn’t pitch well in the rotation he can also shift to the bullpen. Add Gonzalez and Pettibone, with guys like Martin, Morgan and even Biddle hanging around and maybe you’ve got something. I would still probably sign another reliever, however.

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          1. Not a bad plan. Garza is the guy I’ve wanted all along and Hughes out of NY could be a worthwhile signing with legit upside. I’m hoping the reliever comes by way of a KK trade. Martin is in the Philly bullpen for me, I love his arm in short doses. Garza and Hughes for the cost of Doc, I like it.

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            1. I see that the Giants signed Lincecum to a 2 year, 17.5MM contract. Now bad – just under $9MM per year.. What was that you said? No – can’t be! They are paying him $17.5MM per year? For the 2012 / 2013 version of Mr. Lincecum?

              I think many #3 pitchers out there are saying thank you very much to Tim and the Giants.

              With the inflated value of starting pitching, it makes watching MAG all that more interesting come spring training. Do we have a #4 starter, or a 7th inning guy. The final 3 year, 12MM would seem to indicate the latter, but the initial reports of 6/50MM would imply the former. Let’s hope that the elbow concerns prove to be nothing, and he turns out to be a solid addition.

              I would be really curious as to what the Phillies are seeing from him right now.

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    2. Of course, most of these recommendations are nonsense, and, even if carried out the only net gain to the organization would be an even higher draft pick in the 2015 draft.

      As to D. Brown, even disregarding any off-field shenanigans , he still appears as a shaky fielder and might be a flash-in-the-pan offensively, so , now would be a good time to include D. Brown in a package for something that would really address team deficiencies. As to the other issue, wanted to go to Miami to play football, now he can go to Miami for real.

      A 5th starter to compete with Pettibone? Yeah, that’s the ticket.

      Phil Hughes? Though people on here go on like a stats expert, , signing on to Phil Hughes downgrades that self assessment for them. Even a cursory look at Phil Hughes shows a lot of fly balls, a lot of long fly balls, and a lot of Home Runs. Given that Yankee Stadium is relatively deeper in Left Field, Citizens Bank Park does not look like a fit for him.

      Garza?- the way the money situation looks to be lining up, instead of saying “add Garza” one should say ” add Garza and nothing else”/

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  13. Add the Phillies to the growing list of teams with multi-billion dollar TV deals.

    To get the players their share of the pie, the union should push as hard as it can for elimination of the luxury tax in the next MLBPA.

    Baseball strike in 2017?

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  14. How do the phillies retool their pitching staff this season? My realistic best case scenario:

    Sign Matt Garza. 4 years / 70 million (may take 5 / 90)
    Sign a reliever (Grant Balfour looks good here)

    SP – Lee, Hamels, Garza, Alfredo, Pettiibone
    RP – Papelbon, FA, Bastardo, E Martin, Adams, Defratus, Stutes or other young guy

    Don’t tender KK. I would say sign then trade but what could they get for him after his 2013 season? If they could package him with a mid level prospect for a decent young reliever, do it.

    Morgan and Biddle are waiting in the wings. It would a big plus for the future if they both can put together solid and healthy seasons, whether that comes in AAA or the big leagues.

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    2. Bringing Kendrick back is sort of no-brainer IMO. He’ll probably only get $5M or so in arbitration which is an affordable price for a 5th starter and/or rotaton depth.

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    3. They’ll definitely sign KK because 200 inning pitchers have value and that’s practically what he has become. However, I’m hoping they sign another starter (beyond Garza who I want but who will definitely take 5 years) and trade KK for a reliever although keeping him and signing someone like Balfour would be okay also. Those are the two ways to go and we need to go one of them. Btw, you have to put Rosenberg in that bullpen mix and Diekman has the team made.

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  15. Morgan had a shoulder injury this past year. If he’s healthy and effective in ST and the early part of the year in Lehigh valley he’ll be towards the front of the line when an injury call up is needed. I haven’t seen anything indicating the injury will still be a factor in 2014, did I miss something?

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      1. Agreed, shoulder problems are tough because surgery is no guarantee so they tend to avoid surgery at all costs but then you’re rest and rehab makes it all better and that’s a crapshoot.

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  16. The Lincecum killed (meaning killed the wallets of GMs/teams) the market for mediocre and even more so for top teir FA pitcher (top teir in reference to the FA class, isn’t really a top pitcher available). No way Lincecum is worth 17.5m a year, the 17.5m would be closer to what he was worth a few years ago with an in season extension that would be somewhat team friendly. I was thinking he would get somewhere around 10m a year with MAYBE a max of 13m per year but 17.5m is crazy. What is Garza going to be looking for now, AT LEAST 17.5m a year, the Giants might have just priced Garza outta our market or at least that’s my opinion. What Tom Hudson’s deal, I know he didn’t thow a full year but will he be ready for next year? Maybe a 1yr 8m deal? Then Biddle or Morgan replace him in 2015.

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    2. Correct IF the Lincecum deal becomes a precedent for other deals. Not sure that it will. Certainly agents will point to it in negotiations, but they may have trouble finding a GM who will buy the argument. And one can argue that Lincecum is somewhat sui generis, in the sense that his upside is still quite high (I don’t buy that, but one could argue that), AND that he had unique value to SF because of his history with the team..

      On a related note … the Giants, with 2 recent WS wins, have been held up as an example of a very successful franchise despite reliance on “traditional” baseball knowledge (as opposed to modern analysis). But with this deal, and the Pence deal, maybe we need to start acknowledging that a large part of their success was driven by good fortune rather than organizational competence? Yeah, they have done some things right, and had the skill or good fortune to develop a few star level players who were all under cheap team control at the same time – but man they make some strange decisions, especially financially.

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        1. Its like looking in a mirror… However, them paying him and Pence all that money takes them out of other negotiations so for that I’m pleased.

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          1. I tend to think that in one sense it is worse than the Phillies, in that, despite a number of arguably questionable contracts, the Phillies had only one really unarguably bad one – Howard. I don’t think anything else is as unambiguously bad as the Pence or Lincecum deals. And let’s not forget Rowand and Zito. And then there’s the Cain contract, not in the same category (and honestly more forgiveable even if he doesn’t rebound). On top of that, they either can’t or won’t sustain as high a payroll as the Phillies.

            OTOH Bumgarner and Posey are at least a good young core to build around, more than you can say about the Phillies currently.

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  17. Matt,
    Does the new TV contract lead to an aggressive offseason by the Phillies or does it lead more towards a rebuild since the risk of losing viewers is not an imminent problem anymore.

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  18. Can we come up with a list of possible outfielders that the Phils could trade for? I don’t think any of the free agent OFs meet their needs so I’m expecting a trade. Also, to get someone good, I’m expecting Asche or Franco will be in the deal but there’s no way they’ll trade Biddle. I don’t think money will be an issue this offseason but getting the right people will be important. Ideas?

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    1. Dexter Fowler, Michael Cuddyer, Gerardo Parra, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Ryan Braun, Mark Trumbo, Yoenis Cespedes and I could see the Jays move Bautista.

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      3. I do not want Fowler (overrated), Cuddyer (old), Parra (4thOF), Ethier (lefthanded), Braun (knuclehead).

        Kemp would be interesting risk but I figure Either gets traded for next to nothing before Kemp for high prospect cost. I’d actually be okay with Either (RF/CF with power) in a vacuum, but he is as bad as Howard against lefties which leaves yet another platoon need. I’d rather go after Granderson than Either but they have some similarities.

        Trumbo is likely to cost more than I’d want to pay for someone who may only be a slight upgrade from Ruf (proven, better fielder, same age).

        I’d hate trying to trade with A’s. Cespedes has one MVP type season and a dud season. Which season would the Phillies get? Power and cheap is good, poor defense is bad.

        Bautista is probably my favorite option. Of course he has not finished a full season in years but is a huge power RH bat and gets on base. He may even be able to fill in at 3B in a pinch. (I really wanted Phillies to package Gose for him years ago.) And $14M is current QO price. He’d cost top prospects.

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        2. Why would the As want to trade him? I don’t see that happening. Dodgers might trade Kemp and Eithier since they really want Pederson to start in CF. Although Pederson also bats lefty, he’d look great in Philly.

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      4. The Phils have said they want to upgrade their OF defense and I agree with that premise. Look at your list and how many meet that standard?

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        1. Id go after Fowler. No power but hopefully whoever is playing 3B provides a bit more power over what Young did this year. Plus Fowler will take walks, a .365 career OBP

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          1. I agree that Fowler is at least worth considering. Colorado would want pitching and a 1B since they already have a top 3B prospect, who looked good last year. With Helton retiring, Ruf would be interesting in that park but what pitcher would we offer who would be enough to make the deal with Ruf? There’s no way we’d trade Biddle or Morgan (or Watson) and we don’t have much after that unless someone else has more trade value than I think (Martin, Rosen, Severino, etc). 3 way deal?

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            1. Why wouldn’t we trade Morgan or Biddle? I think Morgan (who is coming off an injury) and Ruf for Fowler would be an excellent trade for us

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            2. Which is why the Rockies wouldn’t do it. Ruf has almost no trade value, if you are going to get value from Rif it will be on the Phillies. To get Fowler the deal starts with Franco, Biddle, or Quinn

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            3. I was thinking Quinn and Ruff and maybe another throw-in like Altherr. Morgan won’t be traded because of the injury and Biddle won’t be traded because we don’t have many starters ready down below. Biddle will possibly pitch in Philly late next season. Quinn’s speed would look good in CF in Colorado.

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            4. I don’t want Fowler. This is just ‘the grass is greener’. Think .678 — that was his road OPS. The SLG is WAY down on the road. He is a product of Coors and is no better than what we already have in our OF.

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            5. I agree that I’m not in love with him but I challenge you to find someone better for RAJ to realistically pursue. The choices are not many and the good ones will be very expensive.

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      1. Does either of their teams team have a young replacement ready to take a spot on the big club, making these guys available? If not, they won’t be traded. They’re both decent players. Rajai Davis is a free agent looking for a starting job. Is he good enough to play as a regular in LF or RF? He obviously steals bases and I assume he’s a decent defensive player but his average and OBP have never been that great. I’m still looking for guys to tell RAJ to pursue. Its not that easy.

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  19. According to Forbes, the Phillies have the 41st most valuable sports franchise in the WORLD, valued at $896 million. Is a new TV deal worth $125M or higher, annually, a possibilty?

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    1. From what I’ve read, we should be expecting something north of what Texas and Angels got but less than Dodgers. This means about 175-225 per year.

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      1. That list shows why the Phillies should have considered being more aggressive and setting up their own network rather then going with a renewal of CSN IMO.

        The Mets have a franchise value of $779 million (less than the Phillies). *BUT* when you add in that the Mets have a 65% stake in the SNY network the value of that 65% stake is $1.16 BILLION. That 65% share of a sports network is worth almost $400 million more than the worth of the actual team.

        Owning your own sports network is a massive revenue cow for teams and it also is protection from revenue sharing. A team has to share a percentage of every dollar earned from a local TV contract if they’re one of the “haves”. However the revenue earned by a sports channel which televises the games of the team is protected from revenue sharing. So the team signs a local deal with the network they themselves own(or partially own) for under market value and then has to share revenue off that deal, but then the money made by the tv network is protected from the revenue sharing.

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        1. Have you mentioned any of the risks involved in a team owning its own sports network?
          To say it is a massive revenue cow is one thing, but without any risks involve can be naive.

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          1. You don’t get big rewards without risk involved. Which is why the Phillies won’t do it. They’ll stick to what they’ve traditionally always done. It’s why they won’t go after Masahiro Tanaka, why they won’t employ a Rangers/Rays/Cubs international signing period strategy of going way over-budget signing 5 or 6 of the top-20 and then losing the ability to sign guys the next season.

            The Phillies play it safe and simple.

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            1. Oh I understand that about the Phillies. I have preached that about them for years on this site. Ruben is a riskless guy, IMO, sitting on the fence and hedging his bets.

              I just wanted to now what are the risks for a team when they own their own sports networks.

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            2. Running a network is expensive and you would have to sell ad time for 24 hour a day/12 month a year. I guess the calculation would be do you make profit during the season to possibly offset losses through out the year. The payoff in such an arrangment is obviosuly huge but I imagine there would be risks if you have a bad team and viewership declines causing a decrease in revenue.

              With going the “network contract” route you aren’t going to make insane profits when times are good, but at least you have revenue certainty on an annual basis.

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            3. I meant “enough” profit during the season to offset the rest of the year. Obviously, you would make “some” profit even if viewership dropped.

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            4. Yeah, you have to try to get viewers during the winter when they are playing those old tapes of team recaps from the late 80s with commentary by Andy Musser and Fran Healy (“The Phillies 1989 – The Excitement is Back”). Good luck with that.

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            5. catch…why not go ‘dead air’ or off -the-air from, say Nov 15th through ‘Pitcher and Catchers’ report date?

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    1. I am really interested in tonight’s game. I really want to see how Wacha pitches. This guy is 21, had a 2.78 ERA and a 1.098 whip during the regular season. He is 3-0 in the playoffs, with a 0.43 ERA / .659 whip. If he has another great start, you need to think about his name when considering best post-season pitching performances. (I know I just jinxed him). Imagine the press he would be getting if he pitched in NY right now (well, if he pitched in NY, he would be at home watching the WS – you know what I mean).

      Another poster highlighted this – I don’t think I realized this. But, Wacha was taken with the compensation pick for losing Pujols. Fun to always look back in hindsight, but are the Cardinals in the WS with Pujols?

      I wish him luck – baseball needs story lines like this.

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  21. Though a link was provided above touting a new TV deal that was about to be signed, it appears some on here, now consider it a fait accompli ( though it is suspected most of these did not click on the link or read the article). That article could have been written years ago, and it is suspected most of it was. It appears the author of said article is believing a “a national TV deal can be built around the acquisition of rights to Phillies games, and does not know that national networks are greatly restricted in the MLB games they can show outside of their own markets.

    The follow-up question might be: What TV deal? It is to be believed when seen. The guess here is a long as they remain on the Comcast/NBC plantation , it will be for short money

    As to the other link provided at the same time, it was a serious analysis of the Phillies efforts to hire a brand new “stats guy” and listed among the candidates for said position; The Robert Carradine character from ” Revenge of the Nerds” , and Steve Urkel. Yeah, Quality Stuff. And they overlooked the only true archetype of a “stats guy” available, “Sheldon” of the “Big Bang Theory”.

    So , keep those great links pouring in.

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    1. Hey, I said when I posted it that I hadn’t read it yet. But many sources say that a contract is close and that was one of the first places it was reported. You found the links unhelpful – good for you.

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  22. I’m for adding Garza and Hughes to Hamels and Lee. Hughes has decent stuff a good FB low BB rate decent enough K/9. MAG is the great unknown but one would have to think he is at least KK. KK can move to the pen or in a trade. I’m off the Pettibone wagon. Spend $0 on the BP.

    Cuddyer/Bautista yeah I’d take them off their respective clubs hands if they are interested in dumping salary but wouldn’t give up much for them. If we knew Hart was healthy than yeah he would be a decent add but with that pitching staff above and the organic improvement in the BP I’d be cool with that team to start 2014.

    You did well it appears to get Crawford now you can’t miss on this years #1.

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      2. Wouldn’t Milwaukee sign him if he was healthy? He already said he’d offer them a discount because he missed last year. Classy thing to do. Cuddyer doesn’t really interest me at this point although Fowler might and Parra feels more like a 4th OF to me but he has skills. I think we’re all more familiar with NL guys, aren’t there some AL guys? Would KC move Gordon?

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        1. He’s signed through 2016 at a price comfortably below his production. Even though he had an off year in 2013, I think it would take a lot to get KC to part with him.

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  23. From Beerleaguer, though SSS:
    10 best slugging percentages with at least eight games in World Series history?
    Chase Utley .795
    Reggie Jackson .755
    Hideki Matsui .750
    Babe Ruth .744
    Lou Gehrig .731
    Bobby Brown .707
    Carlos Ruiz .706
    Lenny Dykstra .700
    Johnny Blanchard .690
    Jayson Werth .676

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    1. the 8 games must limit the eligible players substantially. I saw the following on baseball-reference – this does not include an 8 game minimum.

      1. Barry Bonds 1.294 30
      2. Willie Aikens 1.100 26
      3. Amos Otis .957 26
      4. Troy Glaus .846 30
      5. Chase Utley .795 49
      6. Reggie Jackson .755 116
      7. Hideki Matsui .750 41
      8. Babe Ruth .744 167
      9. Lou Gehrig .731 150
      10. Bobby Brown .707 46

      good to see some Phillies on that list.

      In the 2002 WS, Bonds had 30 plate appearances, and walked in 13 of them. He batted .471, with a 700 OBP, 1.994 OPS. Pirates could have used a bit of that in the playoffs when Bonds played for them.

      Somewhat related to the Phillies WS moments: 20 years and 2 days ago, Joe Carter had his hit. That was one of the most memorable, and most frustrating WS that I have seen. The Phillies bullpen just could not get anyone out (sound vaguely familiar?). Only Thigpen and Roger Mason had sub-12 ERA’s out of the pen in the Series (Andersen – 12.27, Rivera – 27, West – 27, Williams 20.25).

      Overall, the pitching staff sported a 7.57 ERA in the Series.

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  24. Mlb trade rumors must be out of thing to say, Putting giants interested in mccann, but not a lot of room for him. with belt and posey, i would think a lot of teams, say everybody would want mccann. if they could get him cheap, so damm stupid. Why would he go to a team to play less,

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  26. One guy I would take a chance with is Chris Marrero. Nats outrighted him to AAA off their 40.
    If healthy he could turn into a serviceable RH power bat for LF or 1st.

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  27. The TV contract may be up for grabs even though the Comcast contract is still in effect for 1-2 (?) seasons. Fox and Comcast should be COMPETITIVE w each other which should allow Phils’ negotiators to cash in…maybe as much as $250/mil/yr.

    Supposedly discussions are going on now; the need for a serious influx of cash NOW might drive the Phils to close a deal soon.

    Question now: how should this bonanza be spent? How restricted are they–or any club–from going hog wild in signing free agent (foreign) prospects? Isn’t there a MLB penalty for over-spending on them?

    What draft choice(2) would they lose for FA signings?

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    1. There is no limit and no penalty for signing the older international FA, like MAG and Tanaka. That is the only remaining, but gaping, hole in Selig’s spending limits on the acquisition of fresh talent. This past year, the Phillies didn’t spend all that they could have — without penalty– on either international bonuses for the younger FA nor on the MLB salary budget. By failing to sign their #5 and #6 draft picks, while also not signing a ton of $100K guys from later draft rounds, they also effectively spent less than they could have on the draft. Since they finished so poorly this season, they have the #7 pick in the draft, which will give them both a larger draft pool and a larger bonus pool for the younger international FA (although they are currently close to a $mill below what they could have spent internationally in 2013 — that pool is still spendable, until I believe June, but the best names are long gone).

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      1. Failing to spend the entire international pool would be bad. Giving them the benefit of the doubt, they are possibly hoping to sign a few late bloomers, but I’m not sure they need a full million to do that….

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        1. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they are just waiting for a/some player/s to be eligible to sign. If that’s true, it’s probably Agostinelli who told them to go after that/those player/s. And if anybody in the organization should be trusted with amateur talent, it’s Sal.

          If they just don’t spend it at all that’s a problem, though.

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          1. They didn’t spend up to their full allotment last year even when you had some teams like the Cubs and Rangers making sure they spent every last penny in May/June before that money disappeared.

            What’s the saying? Fool me once, shame on you…Fool me twice, shame on me?

            If the Phillies do it again that falls into fool me twice category IMO.

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  28. Hard to believe, but Michael Wacha was not drafted out of HS (Texarkana, TX) in 2009, even though he was two time all-state selection. Any pitcher from Texas that is all-stete has to be drafted IMO. Apparently, after posting a dominating 16 win season as a junior, his senior year he pitched less and ended up with only six wins. Not sure why, though he stared on the basketball team and they made a run in their playoffs which could have curtailed starting baseball later that year, or possibly he sustained some type of injury. In any event , he decided to enroll as an Aggie and dominated for three years in the Big 12. Then the Cardinals jumped on him in the ’12 draft with the 19th pick (Angels pick for signing Albert Pujols). The rest is history.

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    1. That is strange. That was in the day before hard draft spending quotas. He effectively would have been a FA and free to negotiate a contract with any team out of HS. With Houston always drafting deep rounds, you’d have thought they would have named him just to keep anyone else from signing him as an undrafted FA.

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  29. How fickle these World Series games…?
    Managing with the pitcher batting is much more difficult, especially in playoffs with bullpen moves made much more frequently.

    The super RISP Cardinals failed to score with bases loaded no out. And, again runner at 3rd no out.
    Rosenthal is strikeout machine but allows 2 runs to tie (granted bases loaded situation.)
    The even more unhittable Uehara gives up double to first guy, the weirdness insues…

    Really do not know how a team in the offseason can try to build a roster to compete with THAT to win a World Series. Just need to be good/lucky enough to get in and hope you team has timely hitting.

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    1. Not to mention, you have controversial umpiring issues again.
      James Joyce, brings umpiring to a poetic level.

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    2. I think if you were able to tailor a roster just for post-season play, it would look something like the 2011 Phillies.

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  30. I guess you are a Red Sox fan but Joyce made the correct call. Middlebrooks almost tackled the runner on that play and definitely slowed the runner down by a lot.

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    1. Tackled him from his stomach laying prone 2 feet inside the line all the while facing second. Except for his legs from his knee buckled up, the runner, who happen to be also 1-2 feet inside the lione, had a clear view of the pathway to home.
      James Joyce may have umpired his last WS.
      Yep was the correct call.

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    2. I haven’t seen the play so won’t comment on that, but Joyce is one of the best, most decent umpires in the game. He’s not perfect but he does a very good job and wants more than anything to be right and he realizes the game is not about him or any other umpire, something many of the cowboy umpires do not get. He’s part of the solution, not the problem.

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      1. It wasn’t an easy call and it’s difficult to argue that they got it wrong. What I would point to is the fact that they called it immediately – and that a close play at the plate followed is irrelevant

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    3. I’m actually not sure if the Ump ruled that the runner tripped because Middlebrooks intentionally interfered with him, or if the ruling was that the runner is awarded the base just because there’s a defender in the base path.

      Middlebrooks raises his legs from his knee down, but the runner seems to trip over his thigh/hip area, which was pretty much flat on the ground. So, Middlebrooks wasn’t anywhere close to tackling the runner, and if he tried to trip him with his lower leg, he failed.

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    4. The call was a correct one and an obvious one. No intent on the part of the defensive player is required.

      In the interest of accuracy, however, Craig tripped over Middlebrooks. He wasn’t tackled by Middlebrooks.

      After tripping, Craig might have decided to return to third base. Had he done so, I believe he still would have been awarded the extra base and scored the winning run since the ump already had called the obstruction. The controversy would have been still bigger, though.

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        1. Craig did try to advance. That’s why he tripped over Middlebrooks. Once the obstruction is called, the base is awarded no matter what Craig did after he tripped.

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      2. Technically Craig was outside the base paths being 2/3 feet inside the bag, leaning towards seconds base.
        What kind of a base runner is he!
        Once he hit third base, directionally he must take a direct line to home plate, not go ‘backwards’ toward second then proceed toward home.
        An umpire has to digest all the data instantly.
        A prone Middlebrooks, laying 2/3 feet inside the base path is defenseless.
        Joyce will now go down in history noted for two controversial calls….the Tigers picture blown call for the perfect game and now this.

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        2. The runner creates his own pathway to the next base and it is up to the fielder to get out of the way. And that is what Middlebrooks could have done, get out of the way. If the runner was facing toward 2nd at a time, it is because of the twisting around in the effort of the fielder to catch the throw and the runner to get to 3rd. And why did the catcher throw the ball, regardless. If the fielder is in the runners way it is obstruction period. Intent is not required. There is no controversy among those grounded in the rules. And there should be no changing of the rules, because umpires should not be judging intent, and a change to thus would result in fielders doing pratfalls to the back of runners legs or similar nonsense.

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          1. Rule 7.08 (a) (1)………Runner is ruled out when ‘he runs more than three feet away from his base path to avoid being tagged unless his action is to avoid interference with a fielder fielding a batted ball. A RUNNERS BASE PATH IS ESTABLISHED WHEN THE TAG ATTEMPT OCCURS AND IS A STRAIGHT LINE FROM THE RUNNER TO THE BASE HE IS ATTEMPTING TO REACH SAFELY.
            Craig was not pushed off the third base after he tug it, and began his flight to home from 3 feet inside the line and the bag.
            Joyce’s interpretation is different.

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  31. Hear me out-

    Phillies go all out for Lefty ace David Price. A package of Biddle, Ruf, Brown, and Servino Gonzolas.

    Why it helps the Phillies- The Phillies aquire a Young, Left Handed Starting Pitcher who is known to go deep into games. This helps their bullpen situation by not needing to go to the pen as much. Price pitched in a competitive AL East that was far tougher than the Phillies division for the past couple of years. He should preform well atop the rotation until he is an eligible free agent at year 2016 (should be resigned to continue leading a strong pitching staff with Hamels with the next group of young players) Price will make Biddle expendable and will allow him to be a good young pitcher to replace him in trade, Browns breakout year puts his stock at an all-time high. The Phillies don’t need his left-handed bat and shaky defense. The Rays however could use him and his power to pair with Jennings and Myers in the OF. Ruf provides more power and his stock is high. The young right-handed first baseman could take Looney’s spot. This trade supercharges Tampa Bays lineup and helps the Phillies get a young Ace to replace Cliff Lee.

    Cliff Lee is then traded (Price takes his spot) as his stock is high and the Phillies will need to replenish their farm system and get younger.

    Cliff Lee+Kyle Kendrick is traded to Baltimore for right-handed power hitting outfielder Adam Jones and Eduardo Rodriguez(Orioles pitching prospect) +Michael Ohlman (Orioles catching prospect)

    The Phillies get their power hitting outfielder in Adam Jones. He is young (28) and also fixes their outfield fielding problems as well as fill the void left by Dom Brown. Adam Jones has already received two gold gloves. An outfield of Revere, Jones, and a free agent outfielder should solidify a previously shaky outfield. Eduardo Rod is a promising pitching prospect that is already in AA, and looks to be a #3 or #4 starting pitcher. Ohlman is a catching prospect to help provide more catchign depth in the farm. Baltimore receives a bonafide ace that they desperately need to solidify their pitching staff which is made up of some young stars that have yet to reach their potential (Bundy+Tillman). Having a veteran presence like Cliff Lee should do them good.

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    1. The Rays would do backflips to get that for Price and the Phillies would have to be the *HIGHEST BIDDER* for his services because he wants to hit free agency. If you’re going to have to pay the highest price without the guarantee of a guy being there long-term there’s no point in trading for him.

      The Cliff Lee trade would never happen. The Orioles won’t trade Adam Jones straight-up for Cliff Lee. He’s the heart of their offense and they have him locked into a fair value deal through his prime years. His contract will expire after his age 32 season. That’s a “perfect” extension. The horrible extensions are the ones that pay a guy to their late 30s. He’s making $13m the next 2 years and then $16m/$16m/$17m. Fangraphs pegs his performance value at $20m the last two years.

      Then you enter into the non-field reasons. Adam Jones is the face of the franchise (Manny Machado may eventually transition into it), but having an African-American like Jones has allowed the Orioles to better reach out to the large African-American population in the Baltimore/DC area.

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      1. I agree, Adam Jones for Lee would never happen, unfortunately. I do appreciate the creativity though. I also don’t think anyone will trade that much for Price who appears to want to be a free agent. My bottom line remains the same: either find enough pieces to make this team a contender in 2014 or trade Lee this winter. And I don’t want to trade Brown because teams will think we think he was a flash in the pan if we want to trade him and not give us what he’s worth. He needs to do it for another season to prove he’s for real and then we won’t want to trade him if he does. Chris Young is a guy that I could see adding as a small piece. He strikes out way too much but he does have power, speed and plays great defense.

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        1. I would tend to think like you on trading Cliff Lee now vs later, in which he may no pun intended, but fall off the cliff due to age.
          Ruben, IMO, however, has to win next year—-make the playoffs—or I think he is gone. The folk will uprise and revolt in mass and Monty will cave under the on-slaught of negative feedback, if the team fails again to make the playoffs.
          So I think Ruben will not trade Lee since he cannot afford to take that chance. And the fans most likely will suffer in the long run, especially if Lee comes down to earth and his skills gradually erode over this period..

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        2. On your thoughts on trading Brown: I would say don’t actively shop him. But if someone asks about them don’t turn them away, either.

          Obviously anybody can be traded for a “blow me away” package, but Brown might be worth packaging for just a “great” offer.

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    2. I just see a career backup with lackluster career numbers coming off of a career year. I see more value in Rupp as the backup at this point and I wouldn’t bank on Navaro as a starter.

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  33. So far so good for Rupp, Hernandez and Galvis in Winter League action. All three figure on having a good chance of making the big club in 2014 as back-up/role players.

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