Franco with another high placement on a list. This time coming in behind Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Sano, and Noah Syndergaard. He did place a head of two guys who are better prospects who were hurt by limited time in the league in Gregory Polanco and Anthony Rendon, but they are/were among the very elite prospects in the game. He also placed ahead of 2010 #2 overall pick Jamison Tallion who has scouts split around whether he is a top of the rotation or mid rotation starter.
As for Franco, scouts love the bat speed and it is a tremendous tool. Scouts are less concerned about the swing path than they were before. He has the ability and power to drive the ball to all fields. Some managers and scouts have noted that you can get him out with breaking balls down and away. Additionally the swing and approach can get out of control at times. There is tremendous power that will play at the major league level. Most scouts think he can stick at third base because of a strong arm and good hands, however the range is poor and they worry that if he gets any larger it could force him off the position. He has now cemented himself in that second tier behind the games’ elite prospects.
Scouts like Jesse Biddle, but the results were not there in 2013. At various points in the year has shown a plus fastball, curveball, and changeup, and an average slider. The problem he been that since April it has been very inconsistent. Scouts think that many of his issues stem from his arm slot varying game to game and pitch to pitch. Some of the arm slot issues stem from what pitches he is throwing and the Phillies will have to work with him to get all four pitches to come from the same slot or major league hitters will pick it up and feast on it. The other issue of course are the injuries and illness Biddle has struggled through this year. The more tired he got the more variance there was in the slots. When he puts it all together Biddle should settle in as a very good mid-rotation starter with a workhorse frame.
Main Article Here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2013-eastern-league-top-20-prospects-with-scouting-reports/
Phuture Phillies 
“He did place a head of two guys who are better prospects who were hurt by limited time in the league in Gregory Polanco and Anthony Rendon, but they are/were among the very elite prospects in the game.”
Just why is this editorial note even necessary? And Polanco and Franco had the same number of plate appearances so this is another head scratching comment.
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Agenda Agenda Agenda.
Same reason he says Carlis Tocci has a present 20 hit tool but mentions him in the Best Hit Tool in the System article.
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yikes. You guys really shouldn’t take Phillies’ prospect ranking so personally.
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LOL. Agreed. It’s like Franco has 4 or 5 family members on here constantly trolling for any comment or article that doesn’t refer to him as the greatest prospect in baseball history…..
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Maybe polonco above average speed and hit tool sure . But rendon is weak hitting 3rd basemen . Who will end up playing a less than average second and hitting around 270 with below average pop . Yikes i dont think franco is the greatest prospect ever but i would take him over rendon in jiffy no thought even involved . Unless we are talking 40 yard dash
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The reports on Rendon are 60 + hit, 40-50 power, average speed, plus arm. At third base he has the skills to be a near elite defender and at second he should improve (BR has him as a minus and Fangraphs has him as a plus). His walk rate was down in the majors but his career says it should be close to double Franco’s, and his strikeout rate should be similar. But more than anything he is already in the majors right now playing an up the middle position. Given the skills I would expect a typical year for Rendon to be in the .280/.370/.440 type range (David Wright with less power)
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so I was close , I said 270 you say 280 , let call it 275 with about 12 -15 hrs a year and blocked at 3rd base by Zim so he ends up a slow second baseman with a strong arm in a few years and if we are on doubling things Franco will double his homerun output probably every year he plays , I would say Franco typical year will look something like 260-270 / 330 /500 plus , and some where between 25 -40 hrs a year and around 100rbi , I know rbi have more to do with where he bats and who is on base. however Franco might also double his strikeouts, Rendon is also 2 years older than Franco and was top 10 pick , Im sure Rendon will be an average to slightly above average player and that is all fine and dandy but I believe Franco will be an allstar candidate, for a longtime remember the fans dig the long ball,
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If Zimmerman doesn’t show marked improvement in his throws from 3B after being another year removed from shoulder surgery I think it’s pretty likely the Nats move him to 1B.
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Very positive results to me. Biddle at #11 is very good news. We know he had an up and down year which may have been caused by illness and some injury so seeing him at 11 is very positive. And Franco seems pretty locked in as a legit future major leaguer starter at 3rd and has real value right now. The question is whether the Phils would trade Asche or Franco now as a headliner to get an OF. The Dodgers obviously need a 3B and have a glut of OFs. I’m sure there will be plenty of trade talk involving Kemp and Eithier because they have 4 OFs and Peterson on the way. How good is Peterson? This talk should go under the general discussion topic not here.
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Why is franco not a 1st tear elite prospect? He is top 5 in the 2 prospect leagues with the most prospects.
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I think people consider the Trout, Harper, Strasburg types as Tier 1 guys, Guys who will be multiple time all stars and if they aren’t it’s a massive failing as a prospect. Tier 2 are guys who COULD make multiple all star games but there is still SOMETHING that might derail them.Guys need to stop getting bent out of shape about, what in reality, are minor variances in ranking.
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Yes, exactly. Had a longer response but this said it better.
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I’m not hating on Harper but I don’t think he is in the class of Trout or Strausburg. I know he is young but it’s just what I see. Too harsh?
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Too harsh, he is not in Trout’s category (but who is), but at age 20 he hit .274/.368/.488 if it wasn’t for Trout and general fatigue with Harper hype people would still be making the generational talent argument. He is only going to get better has he masters his approach and power. In 118 games he was nearly worth 4 wins (while playing hurt for a while$
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I don’t put either of them in Trout’s class- Trout’s been best in baseball over the past two years. Strasburg’s been a great rate pitcher, but suffers lack of innings, and Harper’s been very good but not MVP-level. That’s not a knock on either of Harper or Strasburg. But if you look at fWAR, Trout’s past two years have each surpassed Harper’s career value and nearly matched Strasburg’s career value (the opposite for bWAR). He’s just been that crazy good.
(Of the two, though, I think Harper has a better chance of putting up a peak season like Trout’s past two, for the reasons Matt already mentioned and that Harper is younger and Strasburg’s already had TJ.)
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Strasburg is older than Trout and Harper. He is close in age to Kershaw, and Strasburg is no Kershaw.
I think that Trout will remain a better overall player than Harper, but Harper should become a much bigger home-run threat.
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Thank you, this is what I am getting at. Tier 1 guys are superstar potential elite players. Using the 2013 BA Top 100 as an example their first 11 players were Jurickson Profar, Dylan Bundy, Oscar Taveras, Wil Myers, Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, Gerrit Cole, Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Zach Wheeler, #12 was Tyler Skaggs, that is the divide right there (I would put #13 Carlos Correa in that first group). This isn’t to say that no one from below will ever be elite (or anyone above won’t fail), but there is a clear drop off in quality that is reminiscent of going from the Hall of Fame to the Hall of Very Good.
If I had to do a top 100, my guess is that Franco would fall somewhere between 30 and 35.
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All you did was list the guys at the top of BA’s top-100 for 2013. It’s not the end-all/be-all. Sometimes they don’t catch guys until late. Chase Utley cracked the top-100 a grand total of 1 time from BA and that was #81.
Prospects can make big jumps as they produce and scouts evaluate them. Oscar Taveras was #74 on the 2012 list. Xander Bogaerts was #58, Zack Wheeler was #35. Now I’ll grant you both Taveras and Bogaerts were extremely young and at low-levels so then they jumped up high. Wheeler had been ranked by BA for 2 years prior to 2012 and come in at #49(prior to 2010 season) and #55(prior to 2011 season). They couldn’t consider Wheeler any kind of Tier-1 prospect for 3 years of following him. Archie Bradley will be a top-10 player on the 2014 list. He was ranked #25 both prior to 2012 and 2013. He played brillaintly at High-A and AA this year to get a big bump.
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they just can’t bring themselves to commit because of some concerns with how ABS will play at ML level and if he is true 3B. This label will stay with him thru his career. He will be productive but will not receive the same love as others who more athletically pleasing. Unsung hero will be his calling card.
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The Arm-bar swing is less of concern to scouts than his hyper aggressive approach. At least that’s the impression I get. And that’s the way I see it as well. He has the bat speed to hit things but if he’s swinging out of the zone he’s going to make weak contact or miss.
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I think you significantly exaggerate the swing concerns.
Defense is a little more complicated than you indicate. A couple points there. First, a move to first base WOULD decrease his ceiling by a lot. Even at third base, if he is below average defensively, that impacts his ceiling. Yes, it is possible to be a star at third base even with sub par defense, but it puts more pressure on the hitting to be truly exceptional. Cabrera is a superstar despite lousy defense, but I don’t think anyone thinks that Franco is going to come within a country mile of his offensive production. Along these lines, some of the comps (e.g., Beltre) that people are throwing out there are particularly problematic because of defense.
Beltre is kind of an interesting comp because, as a hitter, he represents (a) a likely ceiling for Franco, albeit one that, like any prospect, even an elite one, he is not likely to reach*,and (b) similar strengths and weaknesses as a hitter. But Beltre, on a career basis, has more defensive value than offensive value. That won’t be true of Franco. Of course, saying that he is likely not going to measure up to a future hall of fame player is not an insult.
And you omit approach/BB rate. Even setting aside the specific issue of the absurdly low AA rate, his career minor league rate, while NOT low enough to preclude stardom, does reduce the ceiling & chances of stardom.
Ultimately, he’s going to be judged, like any player, on his major league performance. If he can play defense at an acceptable level, stick at third, and hit .300/..350/.510, no one is going to complain about his athleticism.
*A slight caveat – Franco could end up (again we’re talking ceiling here) with a little more relative value as a hitter simply because the conditions of the game have changed, i.e., runs scored are down from Beltre’s peak years.
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I was initially kind of taken aback by your reference to Beltre as a future Hall of Famer, but then I looked at the stats and it’s an interesting case. The traditional offensive stats aren’t quite there (especially since his prime, as you point out, came in an era of inflated offense), but his WAR puts him solidly in HOF range. It’s going to be an interesting debate a decade or so from now, I don’t think he’s first ballot by any means, but he’s got a shot, and I think a lot will depend on how the voters look at his stats and take into account his defense, which is elite by reputation, but traditionally hard to quantify.
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Remember that Beltre is only 34 (even though it seems like he has been around forever). He is at 376 career HRs and hit another 30 this year, that gives him an outside shot at 500 on his career, he is at 2426 hits so 3000 is not out of the question either. That should make the traditional stats guys happy.
I don’t understand the 1st ballot vs later debate (given baseball’s voting criteria), as I don’t understand how someone goes from not being a Hall of Famer to a Hall of Famer without playing (in other sports with a set number of entrants each year it makes more sense)
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Yeah, I don’t understand that myself, but I guess the positive interpretation of it would be that the voters take the designation seriously and don’t want to go crazy with their ballots. Also, I think for some players the vote totals serve as a kind of argument in themselves: “X player got 60 percent of the vote last year, I guess a lot of people think he should be in.” But anyway, I think what I was trying to say is that Beltre has always been a bit of an under-the-radar guy and I don’t see him as a no-doubt first ballot guy the way Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols will be, or A-Rod would be if not for his many sins.
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The HOF voters are taking themselves far too seriously. Their stated job was/is to determine if player X belongs in the HOF. They have decided to hype their self-importance by redefining their job into one in which they determine if a guy is super-elite and deserves approval on the first round, almost super-elite and they’ll accept him on 2nd or third ballot, etc.
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Every year, the case for Beltre (both Beltres, actually) becomes more and more compelling. If Beltre has a relatively predictable aging pattern from his current status, his ultimate induction would be a no brainer. In fact, if he quit today, he probably deserves to make it.
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Duh – I said Beltre for Carlos. Of course his name is Beltran. Sorry about the gaffe.
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The traditionalists will also like the 4 GGs (and counting). He also has a shot at being in the top 10-12 all-time in doubles.
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I have never understood the Beltre comparison for all the reasons stated. Aramis Ramirez seems like a better best case scenario for Franco, and I would be exstatic with that level of production/consistency.
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Agree that Aramis Ramirez is a ‘better’ ceiling comp but I heard even he had a better athletic profile than Franco.
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One other point I want to make here … I sort of understand why people want to dismiss the scouting reservations regarding hitting, even if I think that’s misguided (I’m not saying the scouting reservations are necessarily entirely correct, just saying that I don’t think they can be dismissed purely on the basis of his statistical performance, as some people are explicitly advocating).
Defense is a different matter. it’s one thing to say that there are differing evaluations of his defense. It’s quite another to simply dismiss the questions about his defense based up … well, I’m not even sure what the logic is, which is why it mystifies me. Yeah, pretty much everyone agrees that he has good hands and a decent arm. That’s really the bare minimum to play third base effectively. It doesn’t speak to his range, which is a very important attribute of a third baseman, and an area where legitimate questions have been raised. He’s slow and not quick. He may make up for that to some extent with decent positioning, but at this point even the optimistic take on his defense is that his range is just okay.
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So after two posts on Franco totaling close to 600 words….do you think he can cut the mustard or not at third and at the plate?
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At the end of the day I have no idea about whether he will stick at third base.
As a hitter, he WILL hit (though IMO could use a year in AA to refine his hitting). Whether he will hit enough to be a star or “only” a solid regular (which I think is his floor, barring the risks that ANY prospect comes with) depends mainly upon whether he can stick at third and play acceptable defense there.
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AAA that is.
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Glad to see everyone coming around on Franco.
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On Franco, other than 1B or C, I figure that range is least important at 3B. The arm may not play up as much since he may not get to balls where his arm could be an asset to throw guys out on close plays.
Certainly balls he cannot reach will be hits. But with a strong arm and good hands hopefully he will make all the plays he can get too. From an evaluation standpoint he will not be a plus defender, but as a pitcher I’d prefer that, at least, routine plays are made.
Also, how does ‘positioning’ affect the evaluation of ‘runs saved’ for defense? Especially since positioning is normally directed by the manager.
What about shifts? If the 3B is positioned directly behind second base and throws out a guy on a routine ground ball up the middle does that mean he has great range and stellar positioning or just that he can catch a grounder and throw it to first?
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You raise interesting questions in your third paragraph. Let’s get some answers. I think evaluating defense purely in quantitative terms is difficult.
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As Wheels says….’they are in a no-doubles defense”
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I think you’re wrong about the importance of range at third base, but I don’t have the time now to try to explain why. One short argument is that, if a decent arm and sure hands were all you needed to succeed at third base, the position would generally be filled by slow, slugging hitters. Like first base, essentially, with a little more emphasis on the arm. The fact that third basemen generally do not fit that profile is very strong circumstantial evidence that range matters.
In fact, it matters a LOT, but that argument would take more time to make, time I don’t have at the moment.
More later if I have time.
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Like the Harmon Klllebrews of the world.
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Yeah, it’s hard to imagine how anyone who had actually, like, watched a game of baseball before could argue that range is not important for third basemen. The only way you could justify putting someone with deficient range over there is if you had a SS with superior range to his right, which Rollins doesn’t have anymore. If Franco is really a lunk out there (I’m not saying he is, I remain optimistic, just posing a hypothetical), the obvious compensation would be to play Galvis at SS come 2015, but Rollins’ vesting option is looming out there are a near-certainty. I really don’t think a two-year-older Rollins and a below-average defensive third baseman is a viable option.
Actually, I was curious about how the Tigers’ compensated for Cabrera at 3B defensively, and I found this article from the offseason in which Jhonny Peralta talked about the need for him to improve his range due to this very issue. Of course, Perlata ran into other problems this year and the Tigers acquired Jose Iglesias, who is by all accounts a Galvis-esque defensive whiz.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jhonny-peralta-defense-and-weight/
This article is about how Leyland has been struggling to find a way to keep Iglesias on the field, even playing Peralta in left, because of Iglesias’ defensive value:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/10/13/jhonny-peralta-gets-start-short-over-jose-iglesias-for-tigers/NL0P6QdGJOcja6tQwE8KMM/story.html
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My point was that I think range is less important at 3B than 2B, SS, OF. So if I had a hitter with limited range and a good arm I’d try him at 3B. Probably not at C since that is likely to diminish his hitter value due to less games played.
(Also why if Tommy Joseph is taken off C, I’d try him at 3B before parking him at 1B.)
In my opinion, if range was so important at 3B I’d expect to see more SS types playing there instead of power hitters that do not have ‘range’ to play 2B, SS, or OF. Of course there is real value in defense which is why Franco loses some if he moves to 1B or stinks at 3B.
PS. It surprised me that Cabrera has lost about the same number of wins playing 1B as 3B (-1.3bdWAR). That is great tradeoff for the position boost of getting Fielder at 1B.
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And thanks all for the discussion. As I expected, I am a novice in understanding quantitative value of defense, paritally because I am confused in how it is measured.
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Is speed necessarily the only correlation with range at third base, if at all? I understand in the outfield you need speed to track down balls, but you can’t you quickness and lateral movement without being a fast runner. Obviously Galvis is faster than Franco, but he is not a burner yet still has great range.
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Quickness in the first coupl of steps would be far more important. Instincts and reaction time play a major part as well. But I think the point is that big, lumbering guys tend not to be very quick either, though the two aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive
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I hope someone more knowledgeable than myself can address how all this reveals itself in metrics but I would think a 3B with very limited range who makes the plays he should make based on that very limited range could never be more than an average defender, and maybe not even that. Simply observing the difference between let’s say Michael Young’s and Cody Asche’s range at 3B shows how valuable it is to have a guy there who can get to balls more than a few feet on either side of him or, stated conversely, how much it hurts a team to have a player that can’t get to such balls. Now, how many runs/wins does that equate to over the course of a full season, I don’t know.
I haven’t seen Franco enough to judge his range but it is something we will have to keep an eye on.
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Here is the argument for range at third base. Manny Machado is a shortstop playing the position and his range allows the Orioles to play their SS more towards the middle to cut off balls hit there.
Just look at the defensive numbers http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01-field.shtml
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BA lists Franco at 6’1” and 180 lbs. He looks a lot heavier. He could use a conditioning program big-time.
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He could be in the 210 lb range now.
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