I was going to try to think of something funny to say or something interesting to talk about, but I recently contracted a case of the LCS Blahs, and I’ve got no energy for anything.
The only cure for LCS Blahs? World Seriesteroids. If you offer him some cash, Jose Canseco will inject some into your “upper thigh”, if you catch my drift. He’ll do almost anything for a buck.
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
I like the Bowa hire for the coaching staff, as well as Mackanin. I assume they have their eye on a pitching coach or two, as well as a first base coach since they haven’t named Nichols or Samuel yet. I wonder if Duncan and Lopes are possible?
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I assume they want to at least talk to some folks whose teams are still playing. However, Lopes won’t be coaching with Bowa, no way… I love bringing Bowa’s fire back to the club, you know he wants to win one more time in Philly.
The Dodgers obviously have extra OFs and need a 3B while the Phils have 2 young 3B. It would seem like a good match. How good is Peterson? Peterson vs Franco? Kemp will certainly be talked about a lot between now and spring training….
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Pederson/Franco is an interesting pairing, as both profile as guys whose performance is arguably ahead of their reputation. They are also probably going to rank in the same range on prospect lists, with Franco likely a little higher.
Trading them straight up would make some sense in terms of the needs of both teams, but IMO is unlikely because teams don’t like to make prospect for prospect swaps (IMO for good reason, generally – because you know more about your own prospect than the prospect who you are trading for).
Don’t want any part of Kemp.
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Apologies if this doesn’t go here, but anyone have any updates on Kamara after a season(?) in the org?
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The way the leader put it to me, when asked about Kamara , when not seen in the FIL roster, he has not come to the States yet, and is still finishing up HS until April.
And, again, he did not go to the instructional league, only received $50,000 signing bonus (which isn’t what it used to be due to inflation), and is very inexperienced. So, my guess is, when he reports to Spring Training, the org will request permission to place him in either Venezuela or the Dominican Republic, and he will start there.
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He will be in the GCL next year and depending on his rawness he may spend two years there. They won’t send him to either the VSL or DSL
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I figure they should not send him where he will not get playing time, or cut into the time of more highly regarded players. I have Luis Encarnacion starting off in GCL Extended Spring Training at 3B (also OF) then I have as starters in the OF ; Carlos Duran, Freddy Zorilla, and Bryan Martello ($ 250 k bonus) and then I figure Enmanuel Garcia who is good at defense and can also play at 1B and all 3 OF positions, as a likely player in reserve when the Short GCL season starts. And Latin American signees with a higher that the reported bonus of Kamara, in Edwin Rodriguez ($100k) and also a player with a similar bonus in Jesus Alastre (50K)/
So, I figure that’s Encarnacion at 3B to start off, and 3 players , who by resume should play ahead of Kamara, and 3 more candidates . So, if they include all these who conceivably vie with Kamara in GCL, and Kamara , that’s 8 possible OF’s. And that is before any HS OF’s are drafted.. I say not taking any HS OF’s in the draft would be a big mistake.
So, if they are just going to place him in GCL, and have a bunch of players not getting playing time, solely because of status issues. Well, that’s a mistake they’ve made before, and derailed young players by inaction.
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I doubt Encaracion will be able to play 3B. Likely he will be the GCL 1B.
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I figure that some-time Catcher Wilson Garcia will be the 1B candidate when XST starts, maybe he can hold it. For Catcher, I figure they hold over the draftee Jake Sweaney, or maybe Wilbur Torres or other candidates. Surprised they brought Jesus Posso to FIL, so maybe he could be a Catcher or maybe 3B., or even another 1B. But, if at the start of XST, they don’t put Encarnacion there, the candidates might be Enmanuel Serra (22),one of a couple of SS’s Hugo Arrocha or Grenny Cumana, or maybe a couple of other 3B’s William Cuicas or undersized “Power Hitter” Lucas Rojo. So, yeah, maybe they start off XST with someone other than Encarnacion at 3B, but I would like to see Wilson Garcia at 1B, I think you see less upside at 3B with the other choices, and Posso- who knows?
And , as above, the OF looks to be crowded. So, though Encarnacion may be projected by some to be less than ideal defensively at 3B, I believe the minors should be about placing hitters in position to hit, and I think they could give him a full half-season at 3B.
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I would like to address the issue , floated on here at times by some, that Phillies would-a, should-a could-a sign the Japanese pitcher , Tanaka (?). Even the writer Adams on MLBTR estimates it would take a $40 million posting fee, just to obtain the right to negotiate a contract with said Tanaka. The last worthwhile import pitcher, Darvish, had a posting fee of $52 million or so, so, given inflation, I suspect Tanaka may get more. Though said money may not count against the luxury tax, it is still money and comes from the ownership group, so , I say, they will not do this.
If you believe , this ownership group ( which though some may not believe it, is still the Front Office of Bob Carpenter, which came in in 1942) is just craving to spend, spend, spend, to improve the team, and is only restrained by mean ol’ Err Bud’s misguided luxury tax, you can believe they will spend whatever . I do not.
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Just exactly what is the link between current Phils’ ownership and Bob Carpenter’s FO?
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Well, I would say;
Bob Carpenter bought the team in 1942 (i had to look that up, awhile back). He took over for one William Cox, who was expelled from the game for betting against his own team.) I will give team the benefit of the doubt that all of the Cox regime was removed.
A feature of the Bob Carpenter regime was that early on , he named himself General Manager. He continued on until around coming up to 1980, until his Grandson, Ruly Carpenter took over. Ruly Carpenter continued until he hand-picked his sucessor, brought in from the Houston organization , Bill Giles, who later became the owner (managing partner).
A feature of the Bill Giles regime was that early on, he named himself General Manager.
During his reign, he groomed his sucessor as Managing General Partner, Dave Montgomery. ( Note: Ruben Amaro Sr. was brought into the organization about half-way into the Bob Carpenter regime, Don’t know exactly when Ruben Amaro Jr. was born, but it could be he was groomed from the womb).
So Bob Carpenter begat Ruly Carpenter, who begat Bill Giles, who begat Dave $ Montgomery.
See?
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What you have described is simply the succession from Bob Carpenter to today’s ownership group. Nothing out of the ordinary. I thought maybe you had some breaking news about the duPonts’ continuous control over the Phillies the last 70 years.
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I would think that a team owner who selects the next team owner to be team president before his reign has expired is that common, nor would be the familial ties of a General Manager to the organization long before his birth, and possible organizational ties from birth forward. This is not about money or who owns what. It is about continuation of a mindset. It is about Method Of Operations. You can go back to the only true bonus babies in organizational history: Tom Qualters and Mack Burk. Would it be a big shock for the current ownership group to sign similar players today with similar results, with similar players passed on as passed on before for penurious or other reasons?
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Historically speaking..the Phillies did go out on a limb in 1960 and sign one Richie Allen and try to break further into the ‘color’ line.
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OK. Now, I’m starting to understand where you are coming from.
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Um yeah, Bill Giles never “owned” the Phillies. He was just the public face of the private ownership group that bought the Phillies. He was the smallest investor that brought the Bucks, the Dixons, the Betz’s and the Middletons together (the Middletons may have come along later — I forget). I believe his investment in the team was only $50,000, as that’s all the money he had at the time. He started with a 10% interest in the team, and he’s sold off most of his interest to the other partners in the last decade. That’s all public knowledge. When David Montgomery came on board, he took a small piece of Bill Giles’ interest. Montgomery, like Giles, is merely the face of the ownership group, just like Giles was. That’s it. Nice try though. Next time try relying on facts.
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Two Buck brothers have passed, one is left. Family still involved.
Claire Betz remains though she is now approaching her 90th year.
Fritz Dixon and family may have relinquished their holding I believe, not sure.
Jon Middleton (cigar fame) is a silent partner, but has lots of trump.
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That’s all accurate (but they’re all essentially “silent” partners) – but what does it have to do with Bill Giles?
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Giles’ father, Warren, was a former NL President, and Bill Giles’ influence still reflects within the Phillies regime and baseball for that matter, like a few drops of dye in a glass of clear water. And incidentally he is the chairman.
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Giles was much more than that. He was the guy whom Ruly Carpenter gave first chance to assemble a new ownership group. Even though Giles had little money of his own, this allowed him to choose passive investors who would allow him to be the active managing partner. Without the nod from Ruly, he couldn’t have even been an insignificant silent partner on the new ownership team. This made him far more than the public face of ownership. It made him the in-season decision maker. It allowed him to name himself as GM and thus have almost complete day-to-day control, with the bigger owners’ influence limited to the annual meeting, for the most part. While Giles couldn’t ramrod things through that annual meeting, in all other ways which mattered, he was the Phillies primary decision maker, even after naming a baseball guy as GM. He had that clout until the partners appeared to ease him out and replace him with Monty. I don’t for a second believe that Monty was Giles’ chosen successor. Given his druthers, there is every indication that Giles would have chosen to remain as managing partner. I think he had simply had one too many screw ups for the other owners to be comfortable with him as the managing partner going forward.
Monty has the title that Giles had, basically, although Giles is still listed as, I believe, chairman. Not being the guy who put together this ownership team, Monty undoubtedly lacks the level of clout wielded by Giles. Giles almost certainly still exerts considerable influence. Giles’ dad was President of the NL, when that title was more than ceremonial. Ruly picked Giles in good measure to have someone who would support the commish and hold the line against the rising player salaries. He still seems to take that job very seriously.
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Okay, perhaps Bill Giles did not “own” the Phillies in the financial sense, but, like before , this is not about ownership or money, this is about continuing a mindset, a method of operation, and a carryover from the Bob Carpenter regime, as the original theme suggested. Perhaps Giles and Montgomery did not have huge financial stakes, who really knows? They had enough clout to be named managing general partner, and that fact came about originally through the machinations of Ruly Carpenter. Perhaps Giles and Montgomery are the front men for lesser known big money investors. You could also say the same about Barack Obama , or any other politician. Perhaps I did not know all the ramifications of who the General Partners were. That seems to be difficult information to find. Did not find it on mlb.com or BA. It is hard even to find a chronological list of owners, let alone investors. It might be interesting to compare the members of the former ownership group from, basically the ’50’s, with the newer group brought in by Bill Giles. It could be looked into to see if there is any overlap either by individuals or by relationships among individuals, to , perhaps, give more support to the theory of the stealth continuation of the “Ancien Regime”.
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Scott Butler’s article:
http://www.philsbaseball.com/Articles/2010/Off_season/phillies_owners.php
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Heard today that Ruin Tomorrow has called the Marlins inquiring about Stanton 10 times already. Any shot a deal goes down?
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Sure, I think there is a shot. Getting “creative” .. They can forget all the notions of minor league prospects. as some on here, speculate upon. Marlins said to look for 2B, 3B, 1B, C, and always every team looks for pitchers. So, I say, the trade is D. Brown, OF, C. Asche, 3B, Cesar Hernadez, 2B/OF, Cameron Rupp, C, and though I don’t approve or advocate this , for this haul I include J. Bidddle, LHP, and also the erratic RHP, E. Martin. Then after this they can adjust the remaining open spots on the roster with a better balance line-up roster and future projection. I have some ideas on that which may be brought forward at some future time. Not all the good stuff now.
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Are you trying to say it would be Stanton for Brown/Asche/Hernandez/Rupp/Martin/Biddle? That would be the dumbest move RAJ ever did (or any gm could ever do). Not for nothing but Stanton isn’t THAT MUCH better than Brown where you’d include Asche/Martin/Biddle (and even Hernandez). I’d say something more along the lines of fair/equal value in a trade for Stanton would be Brown/Asche AND MAYBE a lower level prospect or a Rupp type. I like Stanton but losing Brown and adding Stanton comes close to a wash to me ESP if the player Brown was this past year is the player he is. If Brown got close to 600 ABs he could have put up 30-35hrs. I dunno, I’d be interested in Stanton but wouldn’t include an All Star (Brown), an average to above average 3B (Asche), a solid utility man with potential of being a solid regular (Hernandez), a capable back up catcher (Rupp), a top 50 prospect (Biddle) AND a potential back if the bullpen arm (Martin) WAYYYYY TOO MUCH.
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If the Phils could sell the idea that Brown is as good as you think he is, now is the perfect time to trade Brown.
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Well, I figured it would appear too much to people on here, but I figure there is less there than meets the eye. To me, Brown looks shaky in the OF, so I figure this move, and a couple of other moves I project with it , will ameliorate several problems, the over-lefthandedness of the line-up , some of the lack of power, and some of the age concerns. Asche, though lionized by some of here, I see as more of a scuffler or a grinder. His loss is compensated for by the insertion of Mikael Franco at 3B who should provide more of the Right-Handed power. Hernandez is a non-power hitter with other questions raised by others about different offensive things they focus on. I have another do-able trade in mind to bring in Peter Burjous for CF, so that could cancel that factor. With Utley around for awhile, they should be able to have a replacement in 3 years or so. Rupp, with the looking to be made return of Mr. Ruiz, or some worthy free agent, Rupp looks to be a potential back-up for the upcoming season. In time they also should come with an acceptable alternative for the future. I would like the team to also sign, as a catcher, the Cuban, Yenier Bello, who appears to be a power hitter. Like I said above, I don’t advocate or approve the trading of Biddle, but for this deal , I would do it., They should be able to come up with a reasonable facsimile to E. Martin, shortly.
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What’s the Bourjos trade idea you have, who would we give up? I’d actually like to see them try to get Mark Trumbo . . I’d trade Kyle Kendrick(kicking in 3m of his salary)/Adam Morgan/Asche for him. Franco would be my 3B to replace Asche then there would be an OF of (Left to Right) Trumbo/Revere/Brown.
Line up: Revere/Utley/Franco/Howard/Brown/Trumbo/Rollins/Ruiz.
Line Up 2: Revere/Rollins/Utley/Howard/Trumbo/Brown/Franco/Ruiz.
Those line ups would be assuming Franco impressed even more so this ST
Rotation: Hamels/Lee/MAG/FA-Ubaldo? Or Johnson?/Pettibone
I feel like Brown has it in him to be AT LEAST an average OF and with his athleticism along with his arm, he should be an above average OF.
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Trumbo? No way. The Phils have told us that they want to improve their OF defense. Assuming Brown stays, that means adding a good defensive 3rd OF. Brown (to RF) and Revere (to LF) could easily move to accommodate a CF so it doesn’t have to be a RF. I still have a hunch that one of our young 3B is getting traded for an OF.
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I know Jim Salisbury suggested Trumbo as a potential target. The Phillies improve their defense with Trumbo, considering it was D.Young and Ruf out there last year.
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Boy that is really damning Trumbo with faint praise. I might look good compared to those guys and I’m in my 40s!
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I’d take a shot with his bat but his glove is just as bad as Ruf’s. I think the Phils realize you have to play strong outfield defense to win. Sandberg talked about that specifically. See the Cards blow last night’s game on bad outfield defense? Balls in the air for long have to be caught, they change games. Take a look at the Pirates’ OF defense, its special.
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We have Revere abd Brown…they are not the Slowensky’s out in the outfield!
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He has a good arm though right? And he’s played more outfield than Ruf. Finally, he’s a potentially replacement at first when Howard gets hurt or whatever
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On the Bourjous trade thing. I figure since Bourjous looks to be an extra man in LAAA now, they will use him as a trade piece. I figure to get him Philly can substitute in Ben Revere who can also be a trade piece , and to put a little more on the Angels side, Philly can take back Joe Blanton and his contract, which I think is still 8 million per year, so just like old times. So, if they plan to bring Kendrick back, they can go with the 2 good guys, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, and Blanton and Kendrick. (Seems like they won with pretty near that combination 6 years back.) And , sometimes,if a team gets set back far enough they may not be able to fix all the problems in one offseason. If they want to trade Kendrick, maybe to LAA, Or maybe not take Blanton back, they can then sign 1 or 2 Top-of-the-line RHP’s.
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I am just not entirely sure the phan base would be amenable to big Joe B coming back to Philly.
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Sounds like a lot of player movement with little to no benefit to me.
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Assuming you’re talking the 2 things suggusted (just the one above I would not say is a lot of movement). And that no benefit thing might apply if one lionizes a lot of players already on the roster, But , figuring if a team underperforms , somewhat, then you can think of some ways to move some people out, if they produce a bad roster or line-up mix, and I see a lot of value to simply clearing the decks from time to time. So, if you look at the line-up/ roster those 2 moves set up, I see the result as this;
Bourjous CF
Rollins, SS
Utley 2B
G. Stanton RF
Howard 1B
Franco, 3B
Ruf, LF
Ruiz, C
P
For the bench, I see Galvis, Y. Bello (the Cuban Catcher as a projection, J. Ruggiano (who was also in the Stanton trade with Marlins , but did not mention above, Frandsen, and another RHH OF to play some LF and enable the sliding of Ruf to 1B at times.
And, as above , in pitching, mostly hold the line.
I see the benefits as;
End of the over-left handedness, Lack of really big spending (which might go to some more pitching) , improved OF defense ( and if you don;t like Ruf in LF , they can have caddies there. More bench flexibility enabling manipulation.
I like this more , now, seeing it in print. There would be so little money expended on the position players, they could really go for a starting pitcher or two, and another reliever.
Other than that, no problems.
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i just….I…I probably shouldn’t even reply to this. I like all of Hernandez, Rupp, Asche, and Brown. I think all but Brown have a decent chance to out perform their profiles. However, do you really think that no one else is going to have a better bid than two guys who profile as bench guys, an average 3B, and a guy who was hot for 6 weeks and will be entering his arbitration years for Stanton plus Ruggiano?
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Oh, then I suppose you think the offer is too little? Looks like, up above, the offer was way too much. I figure, maybe, because the Marlins have a lot of needs, the players offered fit those needs, the package is low cost to them, the Marlins have at least 3 highly touted OF prospects ready shortly , all that. The offseason outlook for the Marlins on MLBTR will seem to suggest all that. I think they should make this offer and if it goes through, it can overturn the roster/line-up situation.
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A pretty good article about aquiring Stanton here. Essentially it only makes sense if you are going also going to add a big time FA:
http://crashburnalley.com/2013/10/14/dear-ruben-amaro-stop-trying-to-acquire-giancarlo-stanton/#more-13037
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Ruben is showing desperation. Perhaps he senses 2014 is a probation year for him.
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If you consider Bill Baer as an authority, then it only makes sense that way.
The subtext of the article is something like this: ( Ooh, Stanton will be a free agent in (2 or 3 years or something) then what will they do? How will they ever afford him? Why would he ever agree to re-sign here? What can they do?)
Here’s an idea. Get him, improve the team now, and either extend him before the contract expires, or after the contract expires, pay the man.
I think a reasonable argument above, as to the acquisition of Stanton, in return for unloading some mismatched for the long term good pieces. And after that, with getting a little more back in the trade, a couple more shrewd trades, and a couple of shrewd Free Agent signings, will be an unbelievable positive uptick in both the short and long term.
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What are the chances that Asche is a trade candidate if the front office thinks Franco will be ready to produce in 2014?
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As in this winter? I’d say near to 50/50 because RAJ will do something this winter in an attempt to extend his employment, even if it takes some creativity to make that something happen. My preference? 0%, and for two reasons. One, I don’t think Franco is ready just yet and a cursory glance in ST 2014 is not going to change that. I prefer he get 400+ PAs at LV while conceding that injury on the big club or continued high performance could expedite his call-up. Still, no rush there IMO. Two, I’d like to see what we have in Asche. He’s trending up, and at the very least his trade value may be considerably higher by mid-summer or next winter. As of right now I’d suspect that Asche is perceived to have more value by the Phillies than any other team in baseball
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The chances are probably good, if Asche has shown enough to have high trade value. They certainly won’t trade him cheaply but the free agent OF pool is weak and a trade may be the only way to get the OF piece they need. However, I’m not sure Asche will be the guy to go, it could be Franco…
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Jim Bowden suggested the Phillies get David Price for Biddle/Joseph/Martin/ and Quinn. I think this is the reason Bowden lost his GM job. I do it in a heartbeat if I’m Rube.
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ILO of Biddle will Kendrick work?
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I think Bowden looked at pre-2013 prospect rankings for that “expert” analystis. Too bad he’s not a GM anymore.
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It was Dan Szymborski, not Jim Bowden.
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So to get Price, we’d have to give up a shortstop who can’t play shortstop, a catcher who can’t catch, and two pitchers that can’t throw strikes? Ok
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seriously, i wished Bowden still worked for the Nationals
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I want to talk – briefly, for me – about defense.
There’s a sense I get these days that people seem to think that “SABR” people put too much emphasis on the importance of defense. This is, for those of us who were around for the early stages of the SABR revolution, rather ironic. Early on, SABR types were accused (with some justice) of under estimating the importance of defense. “Traditionalists” emphasized defense to a much greater extent.
Fast forward to today. SABR types have come around to the traditional view. A large part of the reason for that is the development of advanced defensive metrics. I don’t know if even a long, analytic post could convince the skeptics of the validity of those metrics, but a few truths are or should be uncontroversial:
(1) The SABR community and the “traditional” baseball community now see eye to eye on the issue.
(2) By and large, the players who rate well using defensive metrics are the same players who rate well using the “eye test.” The biggest exception that I can think of are guys like Utley, who are particularly good at defensive positioning and end up rated higher by the metrics than by the “eye test.” (Or course I mean the “eye test”: as applied by trained observers, not casual fans.
(3) Whatever you can say about the validity of individual rating (IMO with a significant SS they tend to be quite accurate, albeit less so than advanced hitting metrics),we certainly have enough data in the aggregate to confirm that the differences between good defenders and poor defenders is HUGE. The metrics say that the defensive difference between Andrelton SImmons and Asdrubel Cabrera, if you buy the metrics, is 37 runs, which is the same as the offensive difference between Troy Tulowitski and Zach Cozart.
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And that also brings up one of the more hidden declines of the last few years. The Phillies ranked #2 with 66.5 runs saved in 2008, the fourth best mark over the last six years. The 2013 Phillies finished with -65.9 runs saved, the second worst mark in the MLB over that same time.
We got rid of the Young brothers, which’ll help tremendously. Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, and Revere are solid up the middle, but no longer plus, and have a lot of downside given their ages. Brown and Ruf are bad OFs. It’s too early to now for sure on Asche, but he had a lot of question marks surrounding his defense in the minors and he hasn’t looked great so far.
It’s also pretty frustrating that we don’t employ any shifts since it would probably go a long way in covering up our deficiencies. Hopefully Sandberg is willing to take advantage of the data out there.
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You bring up an interesting point. I cannot recall the Phillies employing any defensive shifts on any left-handed batters, maybe I am wrong
Of course when Howard hits, he sees a continual defensive shift from opposing teams, even our first base coach goes into a defensive shift out at the RF line.
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Sandberg started using shifts after he took over as manager.
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I think Utley’s problem with the “eye-test” are part that he wasn’t a good defender as a minor leaguer. He improved his defense significantly as and after he came up but than had ental defensive breakdowns in two consecutive post-seasons when most people were watching and that is what people that don’t watch Utley everyday remember.
The other confounding group that you don’t highlight here is the casual fan (which makes up a majority of fans) that don’t use the “eye-test” but traditional defensive statistics of errors and fielding percentage which are just a step above wins as a meaningful statistic.
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Poll of almost 6300 voters reveal overwhelmingly Amaro must go, also Roy.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/pattisonave/Phillies-Stay-or-Go-results-2013.html
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who are the 37.3% of respondents who want to see Ryan Howard come back? Yeah, I realize he is not going anywhere with his contract. But, who would WANT him back? Take the contract out of the equation – say he and all other first basemen made $5MM per year – and you had to set up a list of 1st basemen in order of who you would want on your team. Where would he fall? I would guess somewhere in the high-teens, lower 20’s?
If I said you had to take the pick for the next 3 years, where would he fall? Somewhere in the 20’s? (when I typed the above, I initially accidentally typed “next 3 tears” – perhaps that was my subconscious).
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2012 he was coming off an Achilles injury, so I think we should throw out that season to judge him on, and 2013 he played with a torn meniscus so we can’t completely judge him on that season either.
Now I know next season he is not guaranteed to be healthy, but is it too far fetched to believe he can put up 2011 #’s? He will obviously always strike out a lot and may hit into the shift a lot, but lets also not forget that every year since his rookie season he has finished top-10 in MVP voting when healthy.
He won’t be worth his contract, but you can’t fault him for that. However, I think he will be worth a lot more than fans and writers give him credit for.
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Lets not use MVP voting for value given its flaws. In 2011 he hit .253/.346/.488 which was good enough for a 126 OPS+ and 1.1 Wins of value. Since 2007 Howard has been an above average regular only once when in 2009 he was worth 3.8 wins after hitting .279/.360/.571, the problem is that will be 4+ years ago by the start of next season and his power has been nowhere near those numbers since his MVP year in 2006.
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Using WAR has it’s flaws as well.
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It absolutely does, but it does point out that the defense really detracts from his value, and it strips away the RBI as an evaluation tool (if you want to credit Howard’s RBIs somewhere give the value to Utley, Rollins, and Victorino). If we want to look at just the offensive numbers, he was 11th at 1B in both 2010 and 2011 by fangraphs wRC+ and was 10th in 2011 and 11th in 2011 in wOBA which takes into account power and on base ability. So when you look at that, you see a player who is slightly above average offensively at his position and one of the 5 worst defensive players there.
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It may have its flaws – but at the end of the day, knowing what we know (age, body type, injury history, inability over the past several years to hit lefties, defense), where would you list Howard amongst the 1st basemen in baseball?
career BA versus lefties: .224
career OBP versus lefties: 300
career OPS versus lefties: .728
Those include the good years for Howard. Obviously the righty splits are better, but given the deficiencies, I see him as a second division player.
Running: has to be in the bottom 5% of baserunners
Fielding: not good
throwing: unknown – he always lets the runner advance to second on a bunt, and underhands the ball to the pitcher (I say this in jest, but throwing is not a strength)
Body type – he is soon to be 34, and he does not have what one would call the type of body that ages well.
As an aside – I count myself amongst the 20% that would want Papelbon on my team (I don’t like his personality, and I realize that his fastball is not as fast, but I would still take him). I would prefer it was at half the cost, but…
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He has lost weight over the last 6 weeks, he is now thinned out some.
The Sultan of Svelte.
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Our first basemen in 2013 put up .239/.299/.396 with an OPS+ of 80. So if we truly want to use WAR, his replacements last season were far below league average which would mean he has the potential to add much more than 1.1 wins of value to our team simply by putting up 2011 stats.
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There is no way he puts up 35 HR or 100 RBI in any of the years remaining on his contract. Watch him hack at any left hander and and you can see it has nothing to do with injuries. The Phils have no chance of being a 500 team while they are still paying him. And yet Amaro is still making the decisions.
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I guess anyone who saw who the Phillies trotted out at 1B much of this season after Howard went onto DL or who are aware how much better the Phillies W/L ratio is over the past couple years, when even the not so good version of Howard is in the lineup. Yes, Howard probably does fall in the high teens of 1B whom we would happily swap him even up for, but we really can’t afford to do that. If Howard is unable to play in 2014, we will still pay his full salary. The Phillies won’t even be able to sign a decent FA 1B, with a recovering Howard waiting in the wings. So yes, it is far better for the Phillies if Howard returns healthy in 2014. Even better if Sandberg platoons him. We might well get a .900 OPS from Howard in a strict platoon situation. That is really the best that the Phillies can hope for out of 1B in 2014. You also have to hope that Howard has a good 2014, as that might make his contract shedable in the off-season, with Franco or Ruf cheaply replacing him in 2015.
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Well I’m not too well versed on statistical analysis I must admit, but my eyes saw what they saw and that was Howard putting the club on his back for periods of 10 days to two weeks and carrying them. Which makes it so tough to watch him now. Not only did he have enormous offensive production he NEVER missed a ballgame either. anyways, i think this club can compete but need some savvy moves by the front office and some luck. The braves winning the east is one of the strangest things I have ever seen given the POOR offensive output by many of their players, just goes to show what a decent rotation and good pen can do! I fully expect the Nats to rebound but I think the ML club will contend for a good part of 2014. Hopeful? Yes, delusional ? Sure. True fan, absolutely.
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This is the best positive case you can make for Howard, and one with which I mostly agree. But let me push back a bit in three respects:
(1) “Better than the players they trotted out at first base last year” is a pretty low bar.
(2) “Even better if Sandberg platoons him” does a lot of the work in your comment, but IMO he is unlikely to do so.
(3) This is sort of a coda to number one, but IF Ruf is the alternative option in 2014, I’m not sure I prefer Howard at this point. As much as I’m ready to write off Ruf as a regular in the outfield, if he could hit as well going forward as he has hit so far, and if he can play an average first base, he is a decent regular at that position. Not a great option, but quite possibly a better option than a 34 year old Howard. (In essence, Ruf’s negative value as an outfielder defensively far outweighs the positional difference between left field and first base.)
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I know it’s a low bar, but it’s where we are. Howard is both injured and extremely expensive, which makes him virtually untradeable, until he again shows at least a little something on the field. I don’t know what Sandberg will do, or even if RAJ will trade Ruf over the winter — the Phillies have tended to resolve position disputes by trading one of the contenders for the spot, but I would give Ruf a lot of time at 1B in 2014. I don’t see a replacement 1B being added for 2014. Who in his right mind would sign with the Phillies with Howard still under contract and the team’s history of trotting him out just about every single game for which he is at least 1/3 healthy in order to ‘maximize’ their huge investment and minimize their perception of how much egg they have on their faces? So, it’s Howard plus who we already have for 2014, possibly with a AAAA guy and possibly with Franco later in the season. That means we are far better off if Howard shows up in ST healthy and ready to play. I don’t see how Howard not being able to go for 2014 can possibly be better than that. And that, or paying 90% of his salary to unload him for nothing, is the only way he’s not back. And yes, in a platoon he can OPS .900. Hitting against RHP, he could easily OPS .500 and get confused enough to only OPS .800 against RHP. Bottom line — there is not ‘good’ or close to ‘good’ resolution to the albatross that is Howard and his contract, we are left choosing among poor, bad, and awful.
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I don’t know what RAJ/Ryne will do about a Howard platoon. If they want any chance of winning in 2014, they will platoon him. That is a way of majorly upgrading at one position at zero cost of prospects or $. Spend the money on a starting pitcher and an OF, who can play CF in addition to a corner.
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FWI…..in 2012, 72% of pitches thrown by pitchers vs the Phillies were from right-handed pitchers. So Howard will still get the majority of at bats in a platoon situation.
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When you think of platooning Howard, you must realize that in the NL East there are only three/four lefthanded starters that would be considered elite….Gio Gonzalez, Mike MInor, Jon Niese and maybe Alex Wood/Paul Maholm. Of course outside the division there is Kershaw, Bumgarner, and Wade Miley. So platooning would be limited.
I ask….would you pinch hit for Howard in the 7th/8th/9th inning when the lefty relievers are in there. thats the critical question to be answered.
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I do realize that most pitchers are RHP. I do realize that this will give Howard the majority of AB at 1B. That is not a problem, because even last season, Howard hit RHP quite well. I also realize that there aren’t a ton of elite LHP. However, it is not that Howard only had a problem against elite LHP, he had a problem with LHP generally. His splits are stark. His OPS against RHP is a very respectable .879. Healthy, he can do a little better than that, especially if he doesn’t have his stroke messed up trying to hit LHP. Against all LHP his OPS is a truly pathetic .539. That leaves a lot of room for improvement in a platoon situation. I am not suggesting that Howard be sat against tough LHP or just starting LHP, I’d sit him against all LHP. His platoon mate will be on the bench and when the inevitable LHRP is called in to face Howard late in the game in a key situation, I would automatically sub in the platoon mate, guaranteeing a RH vs LHP matchup. There is very substantial potential for improvement in the Phillies output from 1B in 2014: Howard will likely be healthy and a bit better than he was in 2013, we can platoon and get far better AB against LHP including in game on the line situations against relievers, and finally we won’t have the truly pathetic offense that fill-ins like Martinez gave us from 1B. This is a fix that is basically free. Howard naturally returns to health, Ruf plays 1B against LHP, and we never, ever put a light-hitting defensive IF at 1B. That should be good for multiple extra wins in 2014.
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I agree completely. The first-base platoon is the only practical move to improve the Phils’ infield in 2014.
The other potential source of infield improvement in 2014 is the continued development of Asche at third. We’ll see how that works out if Asche is given a full-season audition.
Hernandez’ and Galvis’ coming off the bench should round out the Phils’ IF for next season.
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And Hernandez and Galvis as subs will also be a significant improvement over this year’s M&M. Part of the reason the Phillies haven’t won more in recent years has been a stubborn refusal to put their best players on the field.
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I disagree.
IMO, this is where it gets tricky and sticky.
Pinch-hitting for Howard, with men on base late in a game with a lefty coming in, is a gutsy move and what does it do for team cohesion and confidence.
Rarely has a clean-up hitter been pinch hit for late in a game, and with perhaps runners on base in scoring positions.
Managers just do not do those things. It shows lack of confidence in your key hitter in the line-up.
Howard has been set down vs tough lefties to start games …and Charlie would claim he needs a rest. But pinch-hitting for him sends a totally different signal.
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Pinch hitting for Howard against lefties would provide Howard with the exact signal intended and the one you identify correctly: the team has no confidence in his ability to hit left-handers.
Howard is a grown man with $125 million dollars. He’ll probably get over it.
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Pinch hitting for your clean-up hitter is done in fantasy baseball, not MLB.
If Howard was relegated to the 6th or 7th hole, then it can be done, but as long as he remains the 4th hitter, barring an injury, just will not happen.
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A first-base platoon not only would improve the WAR at that position but also would improve Howard’s individual WAR.
I say this on the assumption that Howard’s WAR is in negative territory not only when he is in the field but also when he bats against lefties.
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Well, like one poster wrote yesterday. in 2012 72% of the time the Phillies faced right-handed pitchers. Not sure what the stats are for 2013. So how much of a difference would it truly make in actual game outcomes?
Granted, Howard’s WAR would improve.
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I don’t get your point. 28% of a season is hardly insignificant. That’s like saying “how much difference can it make if we go 0-for April, there’s still a huge amount of the season left”. It’s even more than 28% of games involved, since Howard faces lefty relievers in critical game situations. The Phillies simply can’t be a winning team with Howard playing against LHP. It may hurt his feelings, but he needs to face reality and put winning first. Howard is good for about a .500 OPS against LHP of all stripes, and that includes sitting against some tough lefty starters. That’s like having Martinez and McDonald as your starting 1B in about 60 games a year. You just can’t expect to win like that. Either Sandberg will manage to win, or he’ll do as Cholly did and manage to comfort the egos of his failing vets. He won’t be able to do both. Howard has had more than enough time to prove that he can’t hit lefties, at all.
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Say that 28% equates to 200 PAs. Howard gives you an OBP of a .325 and Ruf gives you an OBP of .350. What is the difference?
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Based on the last two years, Howard’s OBP against southpaws would be more like .220 (and his SLG, .350). If Ruf gives you a .350 OBP, then Ruf would get on base 26 more times than Howard in the equivalent of 45 games (using 200 PAs). The difference is significant.
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1B I’d rather have over Howard (a healthy Howard)
OVER HOWARD: Chris David, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnation, Prince Fielder, Eric Hosmer, Adrian Gonzales,
ARGUMENTS FOR OVER HOWARD OR NOT OVER HOWARD: Mike Napoli, James Loney, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Moss, Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter, Yonder Alonso, Brandon Belt, Nick Swisher
HOWARD OVER: Lyle Overbay, Adam LaRoche, Ike David, Logan Morrison, Justin Morneau, Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Gaby Canchez, Juan Francisco, Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak, Todd Helton.
That makes (IMO) 8 that I would DEF want over Howard with another 9 that you could make an argument either way and then 12 that I’d def take Howard over. Which puts Howard anywhere between 9th and 18th outta all 1B.
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There are also a lot of guys playing DH or LF right now that I would put at 1B ahead of Howard, like Andre Ethier.
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I think there are a few others that I would put in the “argument” category: Pujols, Allen Craig, Lind, For me, I think I would take the “argument” player over Howard in many/most cases.
In any event, let’s hope that he is truly healthy this year, However, I don’t think his struggles against lefties is due to injury. I agree with what some others have posted – I would like to see some sort of platoon at first (even if that means still giving Howard some swings against lefties)
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Do not short sell Justin Smoak just yet.
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My disagreement is with essentially every one of the “arguments for” players – I’d rank Howard below almost all of them (and one or two others).
Interestingly, using WAR as a rough guide*, in 2013 there was a big drop after the top 17. I’d slot Howard in at 18, with some downside risk and not a lot of potential upside. If you project out his 2013 performance to a full season, he would have slotted in in a tie for 18th, but that’s a little deceptive – he would have been almost a full win below #17, grouped with the inadequate first basemen.
Which is …okay. Look, as I said, i mostly buy allentown’s argument. Maybe Ruf would be a bit better, but it’s not a clear case. Best, as many have correctly stated, would be a platoon. But what’s depressing isn’t so much 2014, when the team likely won’t compete anyway, but 2015, 2016 and (yikes!) possibly 2017.
*I am not as wedded to WAR as some people are, but, especially comparing players at the same position, I think it is a valid tool for comps. .
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Remember, Charlie would on occasion sit Howard against the ‘tough’ lefty starters, and claim it as a rest for him. He did that, but stressed the point that it wasn’t listed as a platooning strategy on his part.
Sitting Howard against ALL lefty starters would be the platooning strategy that I would hope Sandberg would employ.
And as some would suggest, pinch hitting for him later in the game vs a lefty reliever in a key situation was also suggested…I just do not see Sandberg or for that matter any former-baseball player turned manager ever doing that.
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The problem I have with Mr Howard is his unwillingness to improve certain aspects of his game. One example is throwing to second base – he can throw fine everywhere else yet that throw he can’t make? Another area is his approach at the plate. He refuses to take singles by going to the opposite field against the shift. One dedicated off season working with Tony Gwynn and he’d be a two strike singles machine that would eliminate the shift most likely and give him more hits when he has a more aggressive approach early in counts. He also is well known to not find value in watching video. While many players maintain and improve performance over their careers because their mental approach grows by greater than their physical decline, Mr Howard has chosen to “keep doing what he’s been doing”. Too bad there isn’t a baseball equivalent of the business book “What got you here won’t get you there”.
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On the Peter Borgous thing. I c Hernandez as a viable option without using our trade pieces for. Also it seems Peter is a bit of a china doll, plus he strikes out too much. Pass
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Buddy, I have to agree with you. Although we are not always privy to what goes on behind the scenes in terms of who is working on what, we just haven’t seen him improve in any of the areas where he has completely struggled. Most troublesome was this year’s revelation that he doesn’t really watch much film. He could be come a more effective player but the ball is in his court
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a fun thing to do while you eat lunch. I buy the Phillies. I decide to make you GM. You can spend $175MM / yr. You can pick any 25 players you want in baseball, including the minors. You need to win for the next 10 years. Pick the team.
I will not waste the space posting my picks (challenge yourself, and do everything from memory). No Phillies on my list, but I somehow managed to add myself as the 25 man. I will be a utility 3rd baseman (until I retire once someone hits a screamer at me. After all, I am the owner – why risk injury when I already have the backstage pass).
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With Wells and Bernadina released off the 40, and once Horst and Lannan come off the 60-day DL in November sometime, they may also be released, the roster could be down to 34 before December, unless Ruben starts picking up or adding some prospects to it.
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What salary do we use? This past years or their 2014 salary? I’m game to do it however its not exactly fair (fair might not be the right word I’m looking for) bc you can have an OF of Stanton/Trout/Marte for 1.047m or you can replace Marte with Harper and the OF of Stanton/Trout/Harper is only 3.047m.
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I loosely based it upon 2014 salaries. I am a flexible GM, so if you go over a few $$MM, I will cut you some slack. My lineup was as follows – I didn’t look up salaries, but figure the players below should be below 175MM. From what I list, I have 4 players that are still in the minors. I will play for the league minimum, plus $1.
OF: Trout, Harper, Stanton (Buxton, Gomez from Milwaukee)
1st: Goldschmidt, Freeman
2nd: Cano; kipnis
Ss: Simmons
3rd: M. Cabrera, Machado, me
C: Posey, Wieters
P: King Felix, Kerhsaw, Price, Sale, T. Walker, A. Bradley, A. Chapman, Kimbrell, Appel, Fernando Rodney (I said I did this from memory, and this was the best I could come up with)
had I been looking researching, I would have had some changes. Rodney certainly would not have been on my list, nor Wieters. I think Cabrera, as great as he is, may be a guy who slows down (maybe not as extreme as Howard, but his body does not historically age well. Plus, he seems to – in the past at least – live in the fast lane). I am not sold on Cano either – especially at 25MM+.
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Since you’re going with a budget-conscious OF, you can afford a couple more expensive guys. Tulowitzki and Verlander come to mind. You could replace Cabrera with Longoria, who has a modest contract. I would also try to find a place for Matt Harvey, the Marlins’ Jose Fernandez (NL ROY?), and maybe Puig.
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Here goes my team with salaries (from 2014 and adding 4m to arbitration eligible players and 2-5 to FA depending on their potential worth) Have a computer in the patrol car is great, ESP on slow nights like this.
Position Players
C – Buster Posey (12.5m), Salvador Perez (1.5m)
1B – Chris Davis (7.3m)
2B – Robinson Cano (20m), Matt Carpenter (725m)
3B – Miguel Cabrera (22m), Manny Machado (750k)
SS – Troy Tulowitzki (16m), Andrelton Simmons (500k)
LF – Mike Trout (750k)
CF – Andrew McCutchen (7.25m)
RF – Yasiel Puig (3.71m), Bryce Harper (2.15m)
*****95.135m Position Players Salary*****
Rotation:
Clayton Kershaw LHP (16m)
Justin Verlander RPH (20m)
Chris Sale LHP (3.5m)
Matt Harvey RHP (750k)
Jose Fernandez RHP (750k)
Animal Sanchez RHP (15.8m)
*****56.8m Rotation Salary*****
Bullpen (converting some starters into bullpen one inning arms)
CL – Craig Kimbrel RHP (3.5m)
8th Inning – Aroldis Chapman (3m)
7th Inning – Koji Uehara RHP (5m)
LH Specialist – Chris Sale LHP (3.5m)
Middle Relief – Greg Holland RHP (2m)
Middle Relief – Trevor Rosenthal RHP (750k)
*****17.75m Bullpen Salary*****
*****169.686 Team Salary*****
Line up:
1. Mike Trout LF
2. Andrew McCutchen CF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Chris Davis 1B
5. Robinson Cano 2B
6. Troy Tulowitzki SS
7. Yasiel Puig RF
8. Buster Posey C
9. Bryce Harper DH
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My comments, as owner. I will hire you as GM, but I do have my concerns:
1) I don’t like the way Puig plays. So, your job is to keep him under control
2) How sad is this – I saw “Greg Holland” – and I said “who is that”? ugg. 47 saves, almost 14 K’s per 9. 1.21 ERA. Good thing I have you as my GM
3) I considered Harvey, but was scared off by TJ.
4) you failed to add me to the team. don’t forget – job #1 is to keep the owner happy.
5) I might also challenge the lineup to break up some of the righties.
Interesting that neither of us picked Strasburg. 2 years ago, he likely would have been building block 1.
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I accept the job! And to ease your mind about the heavy right handed line up here are their career splits against same side pitching.
Trout – .288/.391/.501
McCutchen – .284/.369/.462
Cabrera – .321/.388/.568
Davis – .241/.287/.453
Cano – .290/.340/.450
Tulowitzki – .290/.358/.500
Puig – .312/.381/.516
Posey – .296/.366/.441
Harper – .229/.312/.376 however since he’s my DH Machado can DH against LHP.
Also I left you off the roster but that’s bc you are in AAA just in case that unknown guy Miguel Cabrera has a down season . . In that LIKELY case (haha) you’re first to get the call.
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Jim Salisbury reports on Phillies pitching woes in an interview with Joe Jordan: http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-officials-look-cure-walks-epidemic
Editors Note: In the future please just post a link to articles. It keeps the thread cleaner and gives writers credit for their work.
-MattWinks
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The rotation is one area where the Phillies can improve significantly in 2014 and give the team a long shot at a WC.
If Kendrick is in next year’s rotation, that tells me the Phils are not serious about post-season play.
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John Lannan outa here
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Michael Martinez re-signed on a minor league deal- ugh.
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What does he have on RAJ? Is there some hidden family connection? RAJ’s illegimate son?
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What is the big deal about signing MM to a minor league deal? He is not taking up a 40 man roster position so he will just play in Allentown.
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I see one of the Philly BB bloggers is stumping to pick up Castellanos now that he has hit waivers. They had such a bad record last season they just might get him. And, now, it looks like some room on the 40 man roster. Anybody want to kick that idea around awhile?
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Castellanos (remember this is Alex not Nick) is a utility player, he is useful, but it is another name in the Hernandez, Frandsen, Galvis numbers crunch
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Yeah, know that it is Alex, not Nick. Just wanted to see if somebody would jump on it.
As far as Alex goes, I looked up the minor league numbers, and it looks to me like he would be experienced and competent in all 3 of the OF positions, 1B, 2B, 3B also. As far as offense goes , the one constant across minor league levels has been a relatively high OBP, for those who value that sort of thing more highly. Also, has been featured on a few top prospect lists for the Dodgers since coming on board. Just 27, might be better as an OF reserve candidate than a more highly compensated free agent or trade candidate. Not the only thing they could do, but maybe for now.
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Admin guys, can you please check into the Recent Comments problem? Sure does help to see where the current discussions are.
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What is the problem? I know we occasionally have well created spam accounts get through the filters and post on random threads, we do work to clear those out when we see them
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On the home page, there is the comments section on the top right side of the screen. Typically, you can see the last 10 or so comments that were posted, highlighting the person that posted them as well as the thread they were posted under.
I noticed that at some point yesterday, this section started to read as follows (and still reads this way):
Recent Comments
There are no public comments available to display
———–
thanks (and thanks for all you/team do)
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Weird, mine is displaying normally. That seems like a wordpress thing, the best solution I can give is to clear your cookies and cache for your browser. If that doesn’t work let me know.
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no luck. I cleared my IE cache/cookies/history, and restarted my browser. I also tried firefox and chrome, and I get the same response. I have seen the current behavior since 4:00 PM yesterday (that is a guess, plus or minus a few hours).
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Got the same thing, except it was not there earlier in the morning and after a couple of hours it appeared.
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I am now seeing the proper behavior now. Problem solved. Wish solving some of the Phillies woes were as easy.
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Been seeing a lot of internet noise lately, about the St. Louis Cardinals vaunted late round drafting acumen , and what not, including some intermittent stuff on other threads and this one from people on here. How about one simple thing? The Cardinals have 2 Rookie League teams instead of 1 for Philly. Cardinals have a GCL team (R) a team in the Appalachian League (R-A), and a Short Season A team. Some teams have a Rookie League and Rookie-Advanced with no Short Season, A and some, like Philly will have the Rookie and Short Season with no Rookie Advanced. A few other teams might have as many , or IIRC Atlanta might have 4. But, St. Louis will have an extra team with a season of playing time for 20 some guys or so, in lieu of nothing for teams with fewer teams, and this has gone on for awhile. Why can’t that be a factor?
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Thats a worthwhile theory to explore. Then again the Cardinals do not have a VSL team.
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I considered the “foreign complex” To be pre-rookie since the usual course is to promote to a stateside complex league from there. And the something like 26 teams that don’t have a VSL team can sign the guys they want from there and have them train in the Dominican, if there that-level worthy. I prefer teams to remain in Venezuela, however.
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Jon Heyman reports: Luhnow built Cards, now doing it with the Astros:
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24103276/excardinals-exec-luhnow-built-via-draft-can-his-astros-do-the-same
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Read it yesterday, looks like a little something to think about for some who want players drafted solely by “statistical analysis”. When Houston’s GM Jeff Luhnow, who is considered the stats guy of stats guys, obtained the players that make up part of the current St. Louis bullpen, It was done on the recommendation of scouts who saw several pitchers for them now, who were JC or College Infielders who got into pitch for their teams late in the season, and they went to the draft and campaigned for their inclusion. I doubt the drafting of these players involved a lot of statistical analysis.
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On a related note: I see that (in BA) the White Sox have left the Appalachian League for the AZL. The Pirates immediately stepped in to fill the void. The Pirates now join around 7 other teams (including the St. Louis Cardinals) in having 7 or more stateside farmteams. And where was The Philly braintrust?
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Corey Seidman on Darin Ruf’s future.
http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-stay-or-go-darin-ruf
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The Cards are a blueprint for the Phils. Great pitching and defense with good hitters and you have to have to have good young players and then you have to use them. It’s old time baseball really, the kind played without steroids. The Phils need to add an OF who can play great defense and hit, power is optional. They also need two more starting pitchers and another reliever. It’s all possible but can RAJ pull it off? I’m not confident….
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Gonzalez should be the third in the rotation. And with Hamels and Lee….who are combined to be near the top in WAR for any two starters from any team, that should be a start. Maybe signing a Garza would be a nice pick-up. Josh Johnson or Phil Hughes–if not QO by the Yanks—could be one-year contract gambles.
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Gonzalez shouldn’t be counted on to be more than a 4 and Garza should be their main target although Santana and Jimenez are possibles too. I really don’t want Johnson, I don’t see that he’s got much left. I’d take a shot on hit as the 5th starter but I don’t see him signing for 5th starter money. He’ll go to a bad team.
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Unfortunately the best move done by the Cards which the Phillies would have been best served to emulate didn’t happen in time. If the Cards had resigned Pujols they might not even be in the world series this year. Pujols massive contract would have had a ripple effect on the payroll, his failing physical condition would have happened with the Cards instead of with the Angels making a less effective lineup and by not letting him go and getting compensation picks the Cards wouldn’t have the NLCS MVP Michael Wacha(selected with the Angels forfeited pick)
Phils would do well to learn when to cut ties with a player. If the Phils hadn’t of committed long-term to a declining Ryan Howard (pre-injuries) they’d be in a better situation.
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Outfielders dumped by Rube and never replaced:
Burrell wins WS with Giants, Pence wins WS with Giants, Ibanez delivers huge HRs in post-season for Yanks, Victorino goes to WS with Bosox, Werth oe of the best players on Nats and perhaps soon to go to WS with them over next year or 2…
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I have to admit I thought Shano was cooked after last year. I’m very happy for him and last night’s grand slam provided a nice moment. I just keep thinking about what the Phils need to do. Will the Dodgers trade Kemp? Do we want that risk if they do? Would it cost much in the way of prospects if we take on the money? A healthy Kemp (is that possible) would sure change the lineup.
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I didn’t think he was cooked Murray but I also didn’t complain when he wasn’t immediately resigned. That he signed with Boston for a relatively modest amount makes it that more questionable considering our lack of alternatives in the system and a seemingly lack of effort to try to find a replacement externally.
Regardless, Congrats to Shane. Truly happy for him. He had some big hits for the Phillies but he’ll be waking up this morning fresh off the biggest hit of his career. Good for him
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Burrell was cut by the Rays and picked up by the Giants. Ibanez was 40. Victorino was a clear overpay in Boston. Werth was a clear overpay in DC. None of these moves were met with contempt at the time.
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Victorino came up big all year. He had the best season of his career with Boston
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I liked his 2011 season in Philly. IMO, its a toss up whether or not 2011 or 2013 were his better seasons.
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Vic was a stud in 2011, though WAR favors his 2013 season. Much of that value comes from his strong defensive play in RF. The investment by Boston is off to a good start
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. Another mistaken by amaro,replaceing victorino with revere, I was the only one on here who thought victorino contact was nuts, all the stats guys loved the deal for boston, so i was wrong again, and amaro and his people were too, we saved 13 million for what to be a botton feed ing team,
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The stats guys loved the Victorino deal? In what universe? $40 million over 3 years was a clear, and still is a clear overpay for Shane. Yes, he came up big last night but that doesn’t justify that contract.
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This “Victorino came up big all year. He had the best season of his career with Boston” belongs down here, not in the above thread. Sorry
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So that justifies a $40 million contract?
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Could you imagine the outrage at RAJ had he given that deal to Vic?
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Unfortunately, the year 2015 will determine how good or bad the deal for Victorino was for the Bosox. This year , so far, it looks pretty good. Next year this time, it could be a big overpay.
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I would challenge anyone to find ANYONE who thought that was a good contract at the time it was signed.
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Not so fast, it depends how you analyze contracts. Victorino got $39 million and played to a 6 WAR this providing $30 million of value this year and then sending the team to the WS – hes almost done enough to justify the contract already. It will almost certainly end up being a winning deal for Boston. But agreed that the deal was widely panned when signed and I was among the detractors.
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I WONDER if you had a crystal ball, and ask any gm, if you sign this guy and he hits a grandslam to get you to the world series, is that worth 40million, i like to know who would say no. the guy already outplay his contract with the year he had, and the money, the world series will bring in for boston. but what do i know.
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roccom…if the Sox go one and win the WS then you could possibly say Victorino’s contract was beginning to pay big dividends..
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You’re using horrible logic to justify the deal. That’s a dumb way to counter any point. If we are using that type of analogy, signing Adam Eaton to a 3 year deal for $24 mil was the best move that Pat Gillick ever made. If Eaton didn’t live up to his contract, Gillick wouldn’t have had to trade for Joe Blanton who stabilized the rotation – so therefore the Eaton contract won the World Series.
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Seriously, your example doesn’t even come close to a comparison in the worth of a contract of Victorino to the Red Sox versus an overpayment. Already, one-third of Victorino’s contract is in the books as a success, that is a fact. His WAR this year is his highest in his career.
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My point is 40 million is small potatoes, to what a team gets in world series money, the gate, advertising, so much money is made, merchandise, just a lot of money, so no matter what we think of his contract, imo they already got there moneys worth, win or lose the series,I thought they were nuts to give him that contract, but again i was wrong, and boston personal people were right, that all i meant.
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Maybe the Tigers will now try to pry Paps from Ruben’s clutches. It’s easy to imagine the Tigers overreacting to their loss and signing a big-name closer this off-season. They could trade Rick Porcello for late-inning relief help and move Smyly to the rotation. Benoit is a free agent, and if he’s back, it’ll probably be as a setup man. Bruce Rondon had late-season elbow woes, he can’t be counted on yet. So maybe Dave Domrowski may take a chance on an experienced closer like Paps and if the Phillies pick up a percent of his contract in the process, it could be a worthwhile move for both clubs.
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This was the same logic used during the season and it went nowhere. People just don’t want Papelbon and can we drop this line of thinking. Even if someone did want him you’re not going to get the types of players people were hoping for earlier in the season. You’re basically going to be paying for Papelbon to close for another team with pretty much nothing in return when your own bullpen is a train wreck. This whole Papelbon to the Tigers needs to be put to bed.
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This probably has been stated before, but Howard’s career wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers only are .410 and 152, respectively. Only Pujols and Votto batting against all pitchers, have higher career wOBAs, and only Trout, Pujols and Votto batting against all pitchers, have higher career wRC+’s.
Being more realistic about his current potential by looking at just 2010 and 2011, Howard’s wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers were approximately .379 and 137, respectively, which would place behind the careers of 15 or 16 hitters facing all comers (including Berkman, Giambi and Helton, who are on their way out).
If Howard can return to the hitter he was after his dogs and wheels started giving him problems, but before the Achilles injury and if Howard is limited to playing 70% of the time, he still will be a very productive bat.
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Just looking at 2013’s leaders, a .379 wOBA and a 137 wRC+ would have placed Howard in the top 20 in all of baseball.
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Yes. Howard against RHP can still have great value at 1B. Unfortunately, Howard against LHP is so abysmal that it negates much of that value. 70% of Howard in a strict platoon is worth far more than 100% Howard against all pitching. Hopefully, RAJ swallows his pride and mandates this. Like the Lakers and Bulls in their prime, managing the very talented 2008-2011 Phillies with near-prime players could be a matter of keeping all the stars happy in their comfort zones, with upper management satisfying fans with both wins and the stars on display just about every game. Now the core is aged/gone and can’t play well every day. Both players and management have the choice between clinging to their comfort zones or winning significantly more games. Some guys can move out of their comfort zone just by shedding a little pride as is the case with platooning Howard and giving Utley more rest. Rollins needs more rest and that will hinder him in achieving his vesting option, but again, it is necessary if the team wants wins. Papelbon is also going to need to exhibit more flexibility in how he is used. Part-time players can also give us a stronger bench.
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Again, the questions begs as I mentioned before….will Ryne Sandberg pinch-hit for his clean-up hitter Howard late in a close game against a relief lefty like a Venters or OFlaherty?
IMO, that is what it comes down. Howard has on occasion sat in the past, as ‘rest days’ against quality lefty starters, but Charlie never pinch-hit for him late in games asainst the LOOGY type.
If Ryne does….then I give him credit and respect for his decision.
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I’d be interested to know what Franco’s numbers are against left handed pitching, obviously they are better then his numbers against right handers but how much better? Lets say in ST both Asche and Franco MASH while Howard looks healthy but continues to struggle against lefties . . . How about a Howard/Franco platoon to break Franco in and get Howard outta the line up against LHP. I know Franco profiles as an everyday player but at 21 he has plenty of time to get to that everyday status.
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At 21 he is still developing and needs to play everyday somewhere. It would really hurt Franco to spend the year in the majors and only get 190 AB.
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Franco’s platoon splits are very minor. In fact, he hit a little better against RHP at CLW and a little better against LHP at Reading, although this was SSS (a little under 70 ABs against LHP at each level).
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Franco will be playing everyday somewhere. It could be in Philly, it could be at AAA, it could be in LA… I still think that RAJ has to either put a team on the field next year that has a chance to win it all or he should trade Lee for the future #3 hitter we need. Keeping Lee and not winning would be a tremendous loss of value for a guy in Lee’s situation where he doesn’t have many years left but could be outstanding again next year. It may come down to Lee vs Franco being traded an dif he trades Franco and doesn’t get back the value we need plus we don’t win, it will a long ugly slide.
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