Top Tools: Hit and Speed

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Hit and speed tools are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to evaluation.  Speed is the easiest tool to measure if you have a stop watch and good hand-eye coordination.  Evaluating the hit tool can take decades to learn how to project, and even then the sharpest evaluator can miss horribly.  The hit tool is a fundamental part of the game and it is the one tool that can end and make careers on its own.  Speed is possibly the most overrated tool in the game, because it is exciting and tangible, but that does not mean it cannot make a huge impact on the game.

I touched on the defensive merits of speed already so I am going to focus on the offensive side.  The gold standard of speed measurement is the home to first time, because it is relatively the same for all hitters and it is relatively context independent.  Good speed can allow a player’s hit tool play up as the range of what can be a hit is expanded, additionally it can turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples.  On the bases speed can alter the way a pitcher throws and can allow you to pick up extra bases.  The only thing missing from Roman Quinn’s speed arsenal is a sparkling steal percentage, but he has the elite 80 grade speed to be a game changer on offense.  At the plate Quinn can pick up extra hits on the ground and any ball in the gap has the potential to cause a ton of trouble.

In addition to being difficult to evaluate the hit tool inspires a ton of debate as to its definition.  Personally I define the hit tool as putting yourself in the position to make consistent quality contact.  This combines a good bat path that stays in the hitting zone for as long as possible while allowing extension through the ball, the length of swing and how it allows you to adjust to a pitch, the speed of the bat through the zone, and the approach that gets the player in the position to try and make good contact.  Other methods that people use include looking at batting average, strikeout rate, and line drive rate, as well as other metrics like that but ultimately it is difficult to look at any number in the minor leagues and come to a consistent conclusion.

A year ago determining the best hit tool would have been easy with Cody Asche’s gorgeous left handed line drive swing.  But coming off the end of the 2013 season there are no minor league prospects in the Phillies system that I am comfortable saying has a pure plus hit tool, but three names do stand out to me.

The first is Carlos Tocci, who probably has a 20 present hit tool, but when you look at the component pieces the only thing missing is the quality to the contact.  Tocci has great instincts and you can see at least a plus hit tool with line drive around the field once he has added strength to his frame.  Cesar Hernandez has more of the stereotypical hit tool with a high contact rate and the combination of line drives and ground balls to go with plus speed.  But he has struggled to put solid contact together and against quality pitching he has shown more swing and miss to his game.  Scouts are divided on Maikel Franco’s hit tool, some think it has plus potential and others think it will be a liability in the majors.  I fall somewhere in between the two opinions, the bat speed and coordination are unparalleled in the system, but there is a lot going on before he gets into his swing and it add length to the overall movement.  Franco is also a case study in approach and it has nothing to do with walk rate; Franco is an aggressive hitter but at times even a reckless one who will swing at anything close to the plate, a more discerning eye would allow Franco to let hit bat speed to spray hard contact around the field and make quick adjustments to pitchers in-game.

The thing with the hit tool is that so much development is done on the major league level and some skills translate more than others.  The ability to generate bat speed and get the barrel on the ball will carry a player more in the majors than in the minors and so while the hit tool may not always look good right now, if the tools are there, there may be plenty more to like later.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

62 thoughts on “Top Tools: Hit and Speed”

  1. best hitter JP Crawford , best power Franco , best speed Quinn is there anybody I missed ?
    maybe Green and Cozens up there for power , and if you think Hernandez is still a prospect and not a professional maybe you could argue for him as the hit tool , but nobody is faster than Quinn , probably not even Billy no hit Hamilton

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      2. Trout is not even the fastest on his team, And to a fault sometimes I support my team even in though the fact say other wise and with speed until there is fair head to head competition or a timed event at the same place, same time, same conditions im gonna say Quinn until proven otherwise

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        1. Really similar speed between Trout and Quinn. Roman Quinn ran a 6.35 60-yard dash in high school, Mike Trout ran a 6.38. Maybe Trout has slowed down somewhat since high school.

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    2. I’m not sure I’m ready to anoint Crawford the best hitter in the system based on a half season of at-bats. There’s lots to be optimistic about, but by all accounts he’s still a long ways away. Eric Longenhagen, for instance, rated his hit tool a 3 and projected a five, which wouldn’t put him in the conversation here.

      http://crashburnalley.com/2013/09/24/the-future-is-unwritten-jp-crawford-part-two/

      Let’s moderate our expectations about Crawford a bit, folks, or else it’s going to be Roman Quinn all over again. (I still like Quinn, for the record, just think people had developed insanely unrealistic expectations about him last offseason, and have no overcorrected.)

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        1. I never got this excited over Quinn , but still like him alot much like yourself , and scouts can be wrong albert pujols was a non hitting, slow junior college hitter who was picked in the later rounds who let his talents and drive speak for him not his 2-8 scale

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          1. Thought Pujols’ issue was that people believed he was born in ’78 vs ’80. Not his hit tool. He was only stateside three years before he was drafted.

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            1. And yet scouts make judgements on people in one game . They had 3 years to see albert if he could hit did it really matter two years age difference . But you bring up a valid point

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            2. Two years age difference matters to Sabrmetric people, primarilly under the ‘age-to-level’ analysis and projection.

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            3. It has nothing to do with Sabrmetrics… The older a prospect, the less time he has to learn before he hits his prime. If all other things are equal, the younger prospect is the better prospect.

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            4. Yeah, and this isn’t even one of those “the traditionalists incorporated modern statistical knowledge,” (As with the relative importance of OBP for example.) This is always the way prospects were evaluated, at least in our lifetime. The only added value from stat heads is more data supporting the proposition.

              What would be an interesting argument, I guess, would be for someone to argue that the advanced stat people AND the traditionalists got this wrong, and that teams would be advised to pour more resources into, and give more chances to, older prospects. “Interesting,” not correct, but if that’s your position, that’s the argument you have to make – i.e., that the FACTS that (with very few real exceptions) prospects who are old for their level don’t make it*, and almost all of the best major league players were young for their level when in the minors, are essentially self fulfilling prophecies.

              *This is even true of many (most?) of the alleged counterexamples (who typically advanced quickly through the minors but then got stuck in the high minors for a while and/or who spent some time in a back-up role before making it as a regular).

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            5. But then the counter example is someone like Ricky Ledee, who started his minor league career with little to no power, but blossomed in the NYPL and then the SALLY as a guy with above average power. It just shows how volatile prospects are even if they develop power. Imagine Carloa Tocci with power, and he STILL doesn’t warrant a starting spot as a big leaguer.

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            6. Also, the older a person gets the less likely they are to “fill out,” so young players have that projection factor while older ones do not.

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            7. Not sure I agree with you here. I have found that the older I have gotten, the more I have filled out. I bought some jeans today – ugg 38 waste.

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  2. I can’t take the Matt Winks — Carlos Tocci stuff anymore.

    His slash line was .209/.261/.249. Can we please ratchet back the love for him. The fact that he was even mentioned in a discussion of the best hit tools in the system is a JOKE. I get that he’s 17. I get the age/level balancing act you have to consider. I get that he has to develop physically. I get that some of his peripheral numbers suggest he has a good approach. I get that scouting reports on his approach are good in some cases.

    BUT HE OPS’D .510 THIS YEAR!!!!!

    The chance that he actualizes all if his potential is so minute right now, and based so much on his physical development (which cannot be predicted in any sort of rational way) that it is folly to think there’s anything more than the smallest if chances he ever has a major league AB.

    There’s a far greater chance that he flames out and hits .211 for the next 3 years and never even plays a game in Reading.

    Ok I’ve kinda gone off topic but I had to get that off my chest. Let’s just leave it at it is ridiculous to discuss him in the best tools conversation.

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    1. It’s not ridiculous because the discussion is about tools. He may not be able to maximize on them, but that is a different matter. MattWinks was clear about the negatives as well as the positives. It seems that your real issue would be the lack of other prospects with a better hit tool than a guy whose production may not suggest that he may be the best our system has to offer in this regard.

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    2. Did you read the article or did you just read the name and decide to rage. If you read it you would notice this line:

      The first is Carlos Tocci, who probably has a 20 present hit tool,

      He has not hit yet, but every scout and prospect writer I have talked thinks he will if he puts on strength. He was rated #18 in a stack SAL and will likely be in the 4-8 range on prospect lists. This seems more like you have problem with Tocci and development as well as the Phillies approach to development. No one including Tocci in the Phillies thought he would hit well this year. The point of the article was he has the components of a good hit tool, and he has the ones that translate once he has more strength.

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      1. I’m on record as saying I think we should take a wait-and-see attitude with Tocci, but I will say that, other than seeing Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, man of international mystery, checking out Tocci’s at bats at the minor league complex is going to be near the top of the list of my things to do next year at Spring Training. He was really a beanpole this spring, he looked like he might crumple beneath the weight of his batting helmet.

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        1. There are and were many Latin players who are lean, wiry and slight of build in muscle-tone, that were excellent MLB hitters. Like I have said before, he will grow in height before he actually gains much muscle. That, for a good many, is their make-up, especially in their teens and early twenties.

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          1. I already felt a bit creepy speculating on a teenage boy’s body development, then you had to go and bring ethnicity into it.

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          2. I think the X factor is ped’s. the game has cleaned up since then, not every skinny guy can get strong like they used to

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      2. Yep I read the whole article. And if he does in fact have a present 20 hit tool then he doesn’t belong in this conversation of best hit tools in the system. Pretty logical conclusion on my part I would say.

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      3. Yep I read the article. And if Tocci has a present 20 hit tool then he doesnt belong in the conversation about the best hiit tools in the system. Pretty logical conclusion on my part i would say.

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        1. well I said Crawford for hit tool and I was also told he is currently only a 30 , so by those standards Tocci is close

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          1. Speed, arm, and defense are all average or above major league tools at present. And he is still young enough that he can add power (it’s extremely likely that he will, we just don’t know how much). In addition, his swing is pretty. The seemingly only thing keeping him from bringing that triple slash dramatically up is strength to drive the ball with more authority and to keep him from wearing down during the season. And guess what? Increased strength will almost definitely come with, you guessed it, time.

            Don’t base a prospect’s status on a box score. Especially young prospects and prospects that are in the very low minors. Even more so when you are using ONE YEAR as a base line. Asche and Utley are just two recent examples of Phillies players that have had a year in which they hit below .260 in a year in the low minors (and THEY were in their 20’s) which later showed to have plus or better hit tools. Just because his stats don’t yet reflect it doesn’t mean he does not possess the tools. He just has something to work on (strength) before it manifests itself. Every prospect is like that; that’s why they’re prospects and not major league players.

            Scout the player, not the box score.

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            1. Will you please knock off the scout the player not the box score stuff like you know something we don’t?

              Ashe and Utley are terrible comparisons since they were both college players. Totally different scenario from Tocci.

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            2. It’s not a totally different scenario. The scenario is that a player with the tools to succeed can still struggle for whatever reason. The struggles don’t make them a non-prospect and it doesn’t mean he doesn’t possess the tools. It just makes him a prospect and not a finished product.

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            3. The way I like to think about Tocci at this point in time is he is a guy with a good understanding of baseball (plate discipline, defense), but doesn’t have the physical body yet to hit. You know how people always disparage toolsy guys because they don’t know how to play the game? Well Tocci is kind of the opposite, except lack of body mass/strength is what is severely limiting his numbers right now but he’s still a young kid.

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  3. LOL I see both sides of the Tocci debate. The reality is there haven’t been many 17 year olds in A ball and for any of us that can remember how our bodies changed from 17 to say age 21 his showing thus far should leave room for optimism.

    And of course the slash line should also give pause. For me OPS is where its at as a measure of whether or not a guy can hit in the MLB. If the body is mature the OPS figure should be 800+ and I would disregard that figure for a young player who’s body is still filling out.

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    1. Wasnt Domingo Santana the same age in A ball while mashing homeruns and yes striking out a lot

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      1. Domingo saw 49 Games and 202 PA’s at Lakewood at age 17 OPS’d .619 the following year between Lakewood and Lexington he saw 467 PA’s and OPS’d .833

        But again Santana from what I recall was a big strong kid from the get go…

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  4. AFL:
    Alther leading-off for the Java, good game. 2 for 3 with also a BB.
    Giles good game, 1IP, 2Ks

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        1. He did fine. Nesseth and Wright got their asses kicked. I’m curious to see how Nesseth rebounds. I saw one of his AAA outings on video and he was very, very impressive. He’s old, I know, but he’s behind a year or two because of reconstructive surgery. He’s perhaps the best sleeper pitching prospect in the organization, which isn’t saying much, but there it is.

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          1. I’m really hoping Nesseth can be a mid year injury call up so he needs to show more than this. I’m off of Wright but we’ll see how he does.

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          2. The overall positive in Wright and Nesseth’s outings…they are going against hitters/positional players that are a year or two from the majors and highly regarded prospects. So now they are keenly aware of having to make adjustments.

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    1. I’m not sure how you can really scout his play. How do you apply an appropriate age/level correction to ‘totally-matched at this level’? It could be that his performance stays awful or as he gets older, hopefully fills out, and plays at a more age-appropriate level, his bat may take off. But… as of today, how do know anything more in a positive sense than the scouts did before they signed him? Presumably the undeveloped raw tools are still there, but there is no more info on whether or not they will ever develop.

      I think there is a serious potential problem with pushing very young kids rapidly up the organizational ladder, merely because they already play good D. That was done with Galvis and the O has never developed and he seems to have gained the tag of ‘can’t hit’ within the Phillies organization. He couldn’t get a major league spot this season. One wonders how much his development was hurt by being always over-matched at bat, while being very young for level. How do you learn to hit by playing at a level where you are so over-matched that everybody concedes that they can’t really expect that you will hit? How can you learn what works and what doesn’t and what you need to change, when the pitchers are so advanced in comparison that nothing you can do to alter your approach at the plate has any chance to yield success? It seems a prescription for failure, eventually be beaten down mentally, and not really being able to learn, acquire developed skills, or progress at a normal pace.

      I can understand wanting to get Tocci a full season of actual games, but if he is bumped up a level, as Galvis was, I think it would be developmental malpractice. It would be treating him as an organizational player who is there for his D to help the pitchers’ development. That is pretty much how Galvis was treated. Who knows if a slower climb up the organizational ladder would yield better results?

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      1. Neither Bowa nor Ozzie Smith could hit when they first played Major League ball. They developed their hit side adequately. Not everyone can. Can Galvis? We will see. I don’t see a problem in the way he was developed and pushed because the glove and baseball intelligence was always there. His work ethic seems adequate. I hope the Phillies don’t give up on him. I like him and think he will develop his hitting in the majors like many hitters as has been mentioned in this site.

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      2. I am with you Allentown. I think the organization erred in rishing Galvis along purely based on his defense. Would he have become a better hitter if brought along more slowly? We don’t know for sure but it couldn’t have hurt.

        I am not as bullish on Tocci as some for the reasons mentioned by others but I do understand the counter argument. But for me his situation is very analogous to Galvis. Both showed major league caliber defense by age 17, could run a bit, and had very good K rates considering how young they were for the ir respective levels. But I would like to see Tocci have success at the plate (and base stealing) before he is promoted again. Let’s see what he does with another year at LWD. As with Galvis, there is no reason to rush him.

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        1. I take the opposite view on the prospect’s progression. I say ‘rush’ them each level up the ladder until AA. At that point they stay there, for a specific reasonable amount of time, until they get it at the plate. Then unto AAA.
          AA level will normally be the fork in the road bewteen whether or not the prospect progresses onward and upward to the MLB level.
          Just my opinion.

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          1. And it is reasonable opinion. I would agree for prospects who may have an undeveloped hit tool but are ready for promotion otherwise. But in the case of Tocci the hit tool is SO underdeveloped I would proceed more slowly. We’ll see how they handle it.

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          2. I don’t agree. You have to remember that these are humans with fragile egos sometimes and they need to have success to gain confidence. They can’t have year after year struggles without it negatively effecting their confidence. Too much confidence is no good either, that’s why they get moved up after they’ve had some sustained success. Tocci will stay at Lwood next year and I’m sure he’s working on his body but I really question whether his body is mature enough yet for muscle development. He’s a bean pole…

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            1. Murrray…my approach to the prospect is one of confidence building in upward mobility.
              For example with Tocci, I sit him down and tell him , though you struggled at Lakewood and you put in the quality effort we expected, we still have confidence in your abilities and skills and will move you up to Clearwater in 2014. Then assume he struggles again in CLW…same thing in Septemeber 2014. However, at the AA level, if then he struggles, then its a different message – you are so close now to the majors, however we want you to master this level before going to LHV and/ or the majors.
              The carrot now is all so close he can taste it.
              Just a motivational approach.

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            2. I don’t think you realize how depressed these guys get when they don’t do well. Its VERY competitive and its a job, its not a game to these kids. They need to do well, they want to earn it and not feel like it was gven to them. We all want the same thing and that’s to get guys to the majors who are ready to play there. And yes, learning how to overcome failure is a big part of baseball but some kids are more confident than others. I don’t know Tocci although he doesn’t look very diffeent than kids I coached, just taller. I’d rather he stay in LWood and hit 250 – 280 and experience some success than go to CWater and hit 180 – 220 but know that he’s in a higher level and expected to struggle.

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            3. I understand where you are coming from. My guess the Phillies will actually start Tocci at LKW and if he prospers early then move him mid-season to CLW. Now Asche, who was older,a collegiate and probably more mature, was moved rather quickly after his poor start at Williamsport and jumped LKW. So things are different for different players.

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  6. Personally, I like to break the “hit” tool into three components, which I believe to be essentially orthogonal:

    1. Contact: When you swing, do you make contact? You can measure this with contact% and K%.

    2. Quality of Contact: When you make contact, do you hit the ball on a line? LD% and IFFB% are useful statistics here, and this plays out in BABIP

    3. Patience: Does the player take walks and get into good counts? Here BB% and Oswing% are useful.

    For example, Franco is excellent at 1, average at 2, and terrible at 3 (at present). Hernandez is excellent at 2, but just okay at 1 and 3. Dugan is excellent at 2, good (until AA) at 3, and pretty bad at 1.

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    1. Problem is all that is still just scouting the boxscore (well advanced statistics, at least). It doesn’t look at what scouts see: things like pre-swing load, level of swing, length of swing, foot work, what the hands are doing, what the hips are doing, and a myriad of other things. Ostensibly all these things will be reflected in the stats but there can be high variability across a season and even across a couple of seasons. Other confounding factors to take into account are age/level and level of competition. Someone in the low minors that feasts on poor quality competition but flounders against pitchers that actually will make the majors would still have damn fine stats across the board.

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      1. My categories can be scouted as follows: Does the hitter swing at bad pitches or work the count (3)? When he swings, does he make contact, or does he often swing and miss (1)? When he makes contact, does he hit the ball on a line, or does he often hit pop ups and weak ground balls (2)?

        This isn’t about scouting vs. stats.

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        1. Agreed. I want to see a guy only swing at strikes and then hit a line drive when he swings. For example, Asche was terrific at hitting line drives on balls that were strikes but he swung at way too many balls out of the zone. He has to learn to recognize pitches better and take the pitches out of the zone. If he does, his average will be high where I expected to be. If he doesn’t, he’ll become a bench player with great extincts. I have to say though, how these hitters know when a slider is going to be a strike and when its not is unbelievably hard. A curve ball is much easier because its slower but a slider is a killer.

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        2. Well as you describe it, it is scouting vs stats, because all your scout is doing is observing and reporting an extremely SSS, based on your metrics. If that’s all you ask your scouts to do, it is far cheaper and gives a much more appropriate sample size to simply scout a several months of box scores. Aron mentions other things, which the scout must observe and report on and which really are important in evaluating prospects. The scout needs to observe what a player does and project how that will work against better level competition and how normal aging will improve or degrade individual skills. Presumably the scouts, or at least the higher up brass, are also evaluating reports from the player’s manager and coaches, which will explain whether the actual stats are shaded by minor injury or things the player has been asked to emphasize, will assess the players ability to continue to adapt and improve, based upon coachability and more importantly work ethic and willingness to recognize a weakness and step outside his comfort zone to fix the weakness. I think there is a temptation for fans to over-emphasize stats over scouting, because that is really all we have major access to and ability to analyze. Some of us see some of the players in person, but we are not trained scouts. I know that I tend to over-emphasize stats, sometimes to the point of being unduly critical of the baseball professionals who have both the stats plus other input to analyze. It’s like how we criticize a President’s handling of a war or economic crisis, while realizing that he is privy to a hundred times as much information as we are and that we might well change our opinion if we got to see that info. We judge based upon what we know, but that doesn’t mean that those with access to more data should decide based only upon what we are able to know. I

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