The defensive profile of a player has always been important to scouts, but recently the public’s understanding of defense has expanded. Advanced stats and video analysis have allowed even casual fans to break down defensive plays. Even so the baseball world is only starting to scratch the surface of defense and its value. In terms of raw tools defense is a component of speed, arm, and glove, but instincts and coordination also play a big park in defensive success. Rather than break down the best of each across the system I am going to break down the defensive profiles of major position groups in terms of the players that best exemplify that tool for that position.
Catcher:
Catcher defense is the farthest behind in terms on analysis because it touches so many part of the game. We can measure pure arm strength by pop times, and a good throwing catcher will limit how much opponents even try to run. Tommy Joseph has a cannon of an arm, it is at least a plus tool, only limited by his ability to get moving his arm has accuracy to go with the pure power. Catcher receiving is often underrated and as fans we often look at their ability to block balls in the dirt and out of the zone, but a catcher who is quiet in the zone can make a huge difference. Cameron Rupp offers pitchers a huge target and a quiet glove; he is not an elite receiver but he is very solid behind the plate. The whole package of catcher defense can be an incredible thing, a catcher combining both the receiving and arm can be worth many wins in value without hitting. It is not a complete package yet but Deivi Grullon combines an arm that could be plus plus by the time he is fully mature and he is a work in progress receiving but the feel is there to have a plus glove, giving him a near elite defensive profile.
Middle Infield:
At shortstop you want the best defender you have on a team. I could talk about Quinn’s range or Canelo’s potential, but the thing is JP Crawford is the best infield defender in the system. He has good range, good hands, and strong arm. There is still room for projection, but Crawford’s defense is good enough now to be his carrying tool to the majors.
Corner Infield:
At third base the two biggest things thought of are soft hands and strong arm, followed by range, but range can make all the difference between a gold glover and a questionable fielder. When it comes to hands Maikel Franco has incredibly soft hands to field any ball he can get too. His raw arm strength is likely better than Zach Green, but his hip throw does not flash the consistent plus strength of Green’s. Mitch Walding as much of the tools of the other two, as well as good range for his size, but the former shortstop is mostly just projection as he puts it all together.
Center Field:
In centerfield it is about getting to the ball. For some players this is about pure speed and for others their instincts and routes can allow them to get to ball quicker than other players. Carlos Tocci just glides around centerfield, he combines plus to better speed (that should improve with strength) with incredible instincts that allow him to cover most of the outfield. Tocci has an arm that should profile as plus as he puts on more strength but his arm is not on par with Jiwan James a former pitcher who has a plus plus arm that is an absolute weapon in centerfield.
Corner Outfield:
When we think corner OF, we think cannon arm and Dylan Cozens fits the bill. A hugely physical player Cozens doesn’t have the arm of a Domonic Brown but he can get the ball in quickly. Beyond arm strength we don’t think of range in corners as much, except when it becomes a problem, but occasionally players with the speed to be average defensive center fielders end up feeling more comfortable in a corner position. Cord Sandberg has the physical tools to play center, but he is much more comfortable with the reads and routes in LF, and what happens is more than a straight transition of skills, an average center fielder becomes a potential elite defender in a corner.
Great stuff.
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This has probably been asked before, but how does Grullon profile offensively. Not sure how recent the linked profile page is, although obviously there’s so little track record there that it’s hard to have any idea what he could mature into. Any chance he’ll be able to hit enough to be a major league regular? If so, that’s quite a prospect, even if he’s a long ways away.
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I actually updated that one fairly recently. He profiles to hit enough to be a regular, but he is going be a bottom of the lineup hitter. His upside is Carlos Ruiz on offense
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Thanks. Great job on the profiles, by the way–that’s the kind of back-end resource material that doesn’t get a ton of attention, I know, but it’s much appreciated by this reader!
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Thanks, I am working on going through them this offseason to make them more useful. I am going to try and link them more as well and see how it goes.
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The Profiles are really well done. I always forget about them and completely underutilize them. Linking them more is a great idea.
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That’s a very high upside.
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Let’s say there’s a hard-hit ground ball in the hole between short and third which would ordinarily be a clean single. The shortstop, however, showing remarkable quickness and range to his right, snares the ball on the outfield grass. This is the beginning of a spectacular play, but the shortstop sails the throw into the dugout, and the batter ends up on second.
I have a simple question: how is this play scored under each of the defensive metric systems now in use?
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I’m not sure, but I do know that none of those metrics are in use on the minor league level, at least publicly (maybe the teams chart/keep track of individual plays, though I doubt it in the Phillies case). Most of the time, all we have to go on with these guys are the reports of anonymous scouts, rumor, a few youtube clips, reports of varying reliability from commenters who go to the games, and the occasional prospect publication writeup. It’s not much to go on, and it leads to lots of absurd arguments, like people who have never seen Cody Asche playing 2B arguing that he should be moved back there.
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Joe Jordan said that moving Asche to second or left field was an option.
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I think second is an option for 2015. For the present time, he needs to focus on being a well-rounded major leaguer and improving various skills. But his hitting is so good that, if he can hold his own at second, he could become very valuable and doing that, of course, opens a slot for Franco at third.
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Well, I guess my point was that since there aren’t anything resembling advanced fielding metrics for minor league players, we’re in the position of arguing in the dark, based on something as vague as Jordan’s suggestion once in an interview that maybe it could happen, which seems a bit absurd considering how little evidence we have. (I saw Asche play 2B once for Williamsport, but I can’t recall anything about his performance either way.)
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Since no one answered my question, let me add a few things.
The play described above, like many shortstop plays has two parts, the catch and the throw. If the SS screws up either part, the play is a net negative and should appear as such in the metrics.
Example 2: If the play were as described above, except that the throw was on target, but the hitter beat the throw, how should the play be scored? Should this be a net plus for the SS’s defensive stats since he showed remarkable range? OTOH, should this be a net zero since the range displayed by the SS did not accomplish anything?
Adding further context to Example 2, let’s say there was a base runner who advanced one base during the play, but would have advanced two bases had the SS not made the stop. So, even though the SS did not get an out, his stop did save a base. Should this play then be measured as a net plus defensively for the SS? Does this mean that how you score the play defensively for the SS really depends on the game situation?
A broader question is this: since the majority of SS plays are catch and throw, should a SS’s range be separated from his throw in measuring his defensive efficiency?
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E=mc2
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Great series. Thank you for your hard work.
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Can Jiwan James be re-retooled as a pitcher?
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I doubt it
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I have heard of people switching from one to another but never of any switching back , but I’d say with my limited knowledge why not , maybe his maturity and experience as a hitter will provide him with some insight , but it would be unprecedented for the most part
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Joe Savery did the yo-yo thing.
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He pitched in the GCL. Go look at his stats. They were downright awful
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From Minor League Ball a few days back (in the Javelinas preview):
“Malcom Culver is another interesting case. He was drafted as a pitcher but switched to 3B in 2009. He managed a career line of .218/.309/.307 and moved back to the mound in 2011.”
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/8/4807502/2013-arizona-fall-league-preview-peoria-javelinas
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No the arm strength is there but he had a stress reaction in his forearm that didn’t heal completely that moved him onto the field.
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what about Altherr , is he just toolsy all around with no standout tool ?
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60+ Speed, 60 raw power, 50+ glove in CF, below average hit, average arm (heard better and I have heard worse)
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The problem with Altherrr is that he’s not that young any longer and his hit and in-game power tools are currently 40 or so. In other words, he has some ability, but: (a) if he doesn’t improve his hitting a whole lot, he’s never going to be more than a 5th outfielder, at best; and (b) while not old, he’s neither young and has to get moving this year, just as Dugan did last year. I’m cautiously pessimistic with Altherr, but we’ll see. I won’t be upset if he’s included in a trade, that’s for sure.
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2014 will be 23 year old season. For Reading thats not too bad.
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Yes, but I think his point is that at 23 there is not much more time you can point to his yout has a mitigating factor for why he has not yet reached his potential. He is reaching the point where he needs to start performing closer to that potential or else those projections will start drying up and he may just end up being viewed as a AAAA player.
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How big of a deal is it if Franco and Joseph become 1st basemen? I know Joseph has the concussion issue and may not return to behind the plate. I hope they keep Franco at third but I know they moved him to first the last days of the season. Could they both be good defensively over at 1st?
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Both should be adequate to better defensively at first base. I would suspect Franco might even be a plus or better defender there if he moved there full time now. Joseph’s bat does not play at first. The reports are that Joseph will be catching in fall instructs.
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Well one has a history of hitting while the other I’m not sure what kind of hitter he is if any kind which is more acceptable behind the plate than 1b.
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gotta say i agree with Matty winks , Joseph become a non prospect if he has to play first , heck his best tool might be his arm which becomes pointless at firstbase , ugghhhhhh, the trade gets if , hopefully not , come on Tommy Joseph see you next shark week
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To get Franco’s bat in the lineup after June 2014 he must be sent to LF NOW in the DR League. If Asche and Howard remain at their respective positions for the next two/three years, then what is the alternative? Franco will join the Bull, Pat the Bat, Inky, Raaauuulll and all the other ‘fleet-footed’ LF big-hitters from the past.
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Franco may be the least fleet of that bunch though. Plus that pushes Brown to Right and I think it needs to be accepted that Brown may be a good MLB hitter, but he may never be a good MLB defender, and Franco and Brown could be some bad Corner D, that isn’t helped too much by Revere’s weak arm and vacation like routes in Center.
As for Franco at First, assuming average D, and projecting his current AA stats with some regression at the MLB level, he might be similar in value to James Loney.
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Agreed. franco is the last person they will move to the outfield- or at least he should be. He would likely end up a major league average player or worse in the short term due to the runs he would give up defensively.
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So I guess it will come down who gets the most in a trade…Asche or Franco, since they both cannot play third, and Howard is a fixture at first for the next three years it appears.
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For me, barring injuries, you leave Franco in AAA for the year. You’ll have a better idea what you have in Asche after the season. If Asche struggles while Franco hits in AAA, you could swap the two mideaseason. You could also bring Franco up to play first if/when Howard goes on the DL. If they both hit you can try Asche at 2B or OF in addition next offseason or trade one as you suggest. Lot of options there….
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I think that’s right. Due to the fluid nature of the situation and team’s dire need to add young offensive talent, I wouldn’t go hog wild dumping players you think MIGHT be redundant at this point. Unless you get an offer you can’t refuse, I’d keep both players and let things work themselves out as I suspect they will.
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That’s good news because I was impressed with Asche at third this year. He showed good movement and foot work. Having two third baseman is always a plus, especially after having to deal with Ty Wiggington.
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