General Discussion – Week of 10-7-2013

Weekly Discussion

AFL Starts tomorrow. I’ll be checking in with stat updates probably a couple times a week. Aside from that, there’s some good playoff ball going on right now, with four more games today. I question the wisdom of having 2 afternoon games on a Monday, but I guess they’d be overlapping and competing with football tonight anyway, so maybe this way is for the best. And I bet they pay a company or a department at MLB to figure out what schedule has optimal ratings possibilities. And I bet those people are smarter and more informed about this stuff than I am.

Discuss.

133 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 10-7-2013”

  1. When I watch the playoffs, I get depressed because you see how far behind the better teams the Phils really are. Will Garza, a serviceable RF and one reliever really bridge the gap? It doen’t seem like that will be enough. Unfortunately, we need a very good RF who can bat 3rd in our lineup and they don’t grow on trees. We don’t have anyone in our system who comes close to this profile. I’d hate to trade 2 more top prospects for someone else’s guy but the free agent pool is not deep and Amara wants to improve now. Beltran at 37 (or is it 38)? I don’t think so. Cruz? Off of PEDs and only a 260 hitter before? Choo? another left handed lead off hitter? Granderson? No….
    We’re in trouble because I think that RAJ will make a big trade and send more of our prospects away. I could see them trade Franco and someone else not quite as good like Dugan or Altherr for soemone’s on the verge RF. We won’t be happy….
    Bring on the AFL!

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    2. Would you be heartbroken if the Phil’s made a trade for Matt kemp? Move revere to left, dom to right. There’s a 30/30 center fielder who can bat 3. What would that package look like? Cesar and Biddle, maybe? They can use the savings to go sign cano and lock up Kershaw….. One can only dream…

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      1. What savings, Kemp’s contract could be absolutely horrible. Kemp has been an above average player once in the past 4 seasons, yes he was a beast in that year but is that worth taking on a 6yr 128million contract?

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        2. I think he meant the LAD would sign Robby Cano with the savings form a traded Kemp’s contract. Now concerning acquiring Kemp, if the Dodgers would settle for something less in return value other then Biddle or Franco, I would think about it. Dodgers are in a squirrely position, going to have to move one of Kemp or Ethier, Puig is staying put and Crawford is producing for them in LF, and then there is Joc Pedersen coming on, so make a pitch for Kemp.

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        3. If the dodgers are willing to move a guy who appears to be an awfully special player something smells badly. I wouldn’t do it

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      2. I agree that Kemp looked great for one year but he can’t stay healthy. His leg issues will be around the rest of his career, do you really want to commit that much money with his injury issues? And Cesar (a back up for them) plus Biddle wouldn’t be close to enough to get him. I’m sure a certain MVP OF in Milwaukee will be next but who knows what his performance will be without any help (and I like him). Do we really want to trade Biddle knowing Lee’s age? Don’t we hope that Biddle or Morgan can take that spot in 3 years?

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  3. 1b. Franco
    2. Utley
    3. Asche
    SS. Rollins
    OF. Ruf
    OF. Revere
    OF. Brown
    C. Ruiz

    Batting-Revere, Rollins, Utley, Brown, Ruf, Asche, Ruiz, Franco, P

    Pitchers

    1. Hamels
    2. Mag
    3. Lee
    4. Pettibone
    5. Kendrick

    Looks good to me. Don’t like Franco starting season? Sign Hart.

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    2. That team wins about 85 games at best if everyone stays healthy, and that is me saying that Pettibone, MAG, Asche, and Kendrick hit their ceilings. In other words, this is another disappointment if everything goes right. You essentially need Brown to become CarGo, Franco to be Goldschmidt, and MAG to be Halladay, to compete for the Wild Card

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      1. Id say its a better team than 1, 2 years ago. At least a .500 team. But yeah probably not getting to the playoffs. Next years goal shouldn’t be winning a world series though. This is a team in transition.

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      2. Agreed. The clear weaknesses there are Ruf and the #4 starter (in addition to expecting a lot out of Franco). Sign a #2-3 starter (making MAG your #4) and get a corner OF bat or else it would be tough to reach .500

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        1. Yep, biggest impact you can have is another OF and SP. At best you can add a win at catcher between Ruiz and McCann. But Ruf vs Ellsbury might be a 5-7 win swing (Ruf is slightly better than replacement level)

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          1. I like ellsbury but he is bad versus lefties, will command a long contract (will be 30 years old and is injury prone), and has no power.

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            1. I have problems with him as well ( the contract he is likely to see as well as his injury history). I’m not saying they should sign him, but just pointing out the areas of the team that are most in need of an upgrade.

              There are a lot of #3 starters that are going to be available and I think it is almost a certainty that they will go hard after one.

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          2. Totally agree. I love Ruf as a guy who made it against odds and as a callup midseason due to injury since he is controllable but I do not expect anything more than average starter in his best year.

            In addition the SP could get a huge improvement if Phillies ‘guess right’ on that #3 starter. I could see Halladay, Johnson, or Tanaka having a 5 WAR season next year or be near replacement level. Start MAG in the bullpen to keep his innings down, plug Kendrick as #4, and try out some other risk guy for #5 with Pettibone who could start in the minors.

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      3. “You essentially need Brown to become CarGo, Franco to be Goldschmidt, and MAG to be Halladay, to compete for the Wild Card”

        I’d say they’d be heavy WS favorites if that happened

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        1. It depends on which version of Halladay he was thinking of…
          But I think you are severely underestimating how bad we were this year if you think that’s a heavy WS favorite. To me, that’s a ~13 win improvement from this year, putting us right there with the Nationals, ie competing for the WC.

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          1. I can’t read minds but I would think the old Halladay. A lineup with Utley, Cargo, Goldshmidt headed by a rotation of Lee, Hamels and Halladay would be a powerhouse. It’s a better version of the 2011 team.

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            2. I don’t really agree. I think next years bp has the chance to be better. We didn’t need much beyond bastardo and madson because the starters went so deep.

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      4. I wonder if the Yankees would swap ARod for Howard right now. I’d make that move and hope ARod misses significant time and the money is recovered.

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        1. I’d make that swap and hope MLB bans him from baseball, voiding his contract. He’s nothing but bad for baseball anymore.

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          3. No, 4 more years, didn’t remember right. But, over the next 3 years A-Rod makes less than Howard, (25m, 21m,20m) and then in 2017 A-Rod gets another 20 million, solid with no Buy-Out at all. So, if you add in the 10 Million Buy-Out for Howard, It looks to me like, even if A-Rod collects all his money due, it is only 1 million less than Howard is due. So, maybe, some might think it is too good , money-wise for the Phillies. The question is performance wise, who will give more in this Scenario.

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            1. In the fantasy world, what ARod gives you is that big righthanded bat that the Phillies surely need. And if he is willing to play first base that is another plus.
              Unless you bench an Asche and put ARod at third and Ruf on first. Don’t like that idea at all.

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      5. so you’re saying if our lineup looked like: Revere Utley CarGo Goldschmidt Ruf Asche Rollins Ruiz and our starting pitching was: Hamels, Lee, Halladay, (healthy) Pettibone, and Kendrick we would only compete for a Widcard spot. I would say that is selling that team a bit short.They would have the best rotation in baseball as they did in 2011 and that lineup with 2 of the best hitters in baseball in the middle would score runs.

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        1. “The best rotation in baseball”

          also had an 11-3 Vance Worley that had a sub 2.5 ERA for most of the season and a Kyle Kendrick that had a 3.22 ERA and a dominant 1-2-3 punch of Michael Stutes, Antonio Bastardo, and Ryan Madson at the back end of the bullpen.

          (although Bastardo and Stutes faded late)

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          1. It’s also not the same Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Lee’s ERA+ was 160 in 2011 and 133 in 2013, and he’ll turn 36 next year. Hamels was 137 in 2011 and 106 in 2013.

            And that’s a ton of maybes in that lineup outside of 3/4. Utley will miss time, Ruiz and Rollins are losing effectiveness, and the rest don’t have enough PA’s to make accurate projections. You only need to look back to 1998 when we had a young Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu just entering their prime yet couldn’t do much on offense.

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      6. We need to be honest with ourselves about the Phillies future. Start with the assumption that there is nothing that RAJ can reasonably do which makes them contenders in 2014. Getting back into contention is going to be a slower process than that and trying to accelerate that by trading prospects for fading stars with long, bad contracts will just postpone when the Phillies can actually next contend. 85 wins would be a great outcome for the 2014 Phillies, probably beyond a reasonable best expectation. The Phillies teams which contended for many years following the new stadium were built around a core of players from the farm with FAs just filling in around the edges. The more expensive FA subsequently added post the 2008 club, seemingly the worse the team did. None of those FA additions would have made us a true contender, had that home-grown core, in its prime, not already been in place. FAs have only gotten more expensive since then as has trading for and resigning or inheriting the big contracts of stars. And back then the Phillies did not have the bad contracts they now have limiting their budget flexibility. We need to get together a solid group of players from the farm and then add pieces to that new core. Just going out and buying ‘names’ today, through FA or trade, is not going to get it done. If we have a pile of $$$ to throw at the problem, then sign Tanaka. Adding Kemp will add a lot of salary and won’t make us a contender in 2014, and he will be less of an impact with each passing year, while his contract becomes more of a drag. Patience is a virtue.

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          1. Matt – Nice writeup, I can’t argue with much of what you wrote. I know that Sandberg loves Frandsen and fought for him to get called up to the team in 2012 so I think he has a reasonable chance of being on the team. I like Cesar also but it might come down to needing/wanting a left handed power bat for the bench. If the guy plays CF, then Frandson might make it over Cesar but Cesar might make it as the back up CF otherwise. There’s also the chance that the guy they get for RF plays CF (or Revere gets moved to the corner) and that might hurt Cesar’s chances too. I also think they’ll sign a veteran reliever to add to the mix or possibly trade KK for that reliever. They’ll definitely try to add one of the starters. I prefer Garza because I think his pitching style and personality would fit best in Philly and he won’t cost a pick obviously. Santana and Jiminez are both possibilities but they both might resign and stay where they are. They key is the RF. You suggest Ellsbury or Choo, the two expensive left handed options. What would that do to their lineup? It would be too lefty leaning. Does Beltran have more left? Will the Cards sign him again or promote their kid? I would rather avoid him, he’s just too old and too fragile. Guys on here love a deal for Kemp but I don’t think that will work.

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          2. Matt, I found your article informative but it was a tough read as I felt you put too much information into the article. I had to read multiple times to understand it and a series might have made more sense. One question, why do you have Ben Revere in the players the Phillies should add when he is already under contract? I felt you probably meant someone else on the list.

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          3. Great article. Not sure how much risk Phillies should take. They are already salary burdened but that is one risk they should be able to take as a high spending team.

            I suppose Choo and Garza are the safest choices with Ellsbury and Tanaka the top choices. I agree that Hart and Johnson are the best risk choices. They are my preference since they allow Phillies to make an adjustment mid-season if needed. Johnson could be got by outbidding, Jays have a tough choice on him. Hart might go back to Brewers.

            I do find Granderson intriguing due to power potential. Lefthandedness is not preferred but a middle order bat in CF would be huge and draft comp might scare off most teams. Prefer Phillies not lose draft pick but agree they need to shoot for playoffs for both the ‘core’ and for TV contract money.

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        2. Quite frankly, signing a Masa Tanaka and expectations for MAG materializing as a competent 3rd/4th in the rotation, puts the Phillies back in the thick of things.
          Of course Utley, Rollins and Howard have to be healthy and give you, at least at the minimum, their equivalent of an average year.

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          1. I don’t think you are going to get a career average year out of players in their mid-thirties. I think the equivalent of what they did last year is the best you can expect.

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            2. When Beltran entered free agency he was coming off of a fine year and his triple slash lines, although nice for the last two years, have been below his career average. Looking at the trend of their stat lines I don’t see Utley, Rollins, and Howard putting up much better numbers than last year. Although I could see Rollins reaching double digits in Homers and hopefully Howard will be healthy enough to play a few more games against righties.

              And, yes, I am sure you could find a few more (and better examples than Beltran) of outliers.

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            3. Such performances leave cynical me wondering whether they are chemically induced. Most seem to have been. With the tougher new testing, that is a lot less likely going forward.

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      1. Whats your point? Again this is a team in transition. Would you rather go for broke and sign 3 good free agents and trade our top prospects away to maybe, possibly, win the NL East?

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        1. This is absolutely not a team in transition according to the GM. If they trade Lee, then I’ll agree that they are in transition. Until then, he wants to win now with this current team adding in only a RF, a starting pitcher and a reliever and unfortunately, I don’t think its possible. I’m starting to lean towards trading Lee if they can do much better than last time and get themselves a young RF who can bat 3rd and become one of the members of the next core group.

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          1. What GM wants to come out and throw in the towel for next season? Of course he says they are still in win-now mode

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          2. It doesn’t matter what the GM says to sell tickets. A team which went from 102 wins to 73 wins in a heart beat and whose core is aging is a team in transition. It is not a team that is going to be re-jiggered to be better than a third place team. Moreover, straining to achieve 3rd place likely significantly delays the time when we again sit atop the NL East.

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    5. I don’t really care so much that this team is mediocre. More to the point, as a transitional lineup is is kind of lame. You acknowledge one objection to Franco, but not the other: a move to first base is premature. Sure, he might be an upgrade int he short run, but (assuming he isn’t forced to first for defensive reasons), moving him to first hurts the team long term. Secondly, as much as it pains me to say this (as I was sucked in to believing that Ruf might be a decent corner outfielder), he isn’t someone who will ever be a corner outfielder on a contender. This especially looms large given that Brown is still a below average corner outfielder, and there is at least some doubt as to whether Revere is a plus defender in Center field. Overall, that looks like a mighty weak defensive outfield. (For those hell bent on getting Ruf into the lineup, and at the same time willing to assume that Howard won’t be, the obvious solution would be to put Ruf at first base, where he would have more value than as a corner outfielder.)

      The rest is fine, though I really would like some more rotational depth. There’s always injuries.

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    1. What kind of trade value do you think Ruf has? He’s a throw in 2nd piece to make a deal happen. We like him more than his trade value at this point.

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  5. One organization that seems to do it right, when it comes to both drafting and amateur free agent signings is the St Louis Cardinals. I looked at their number one picks over the last few years and came up with this, they have had their share of ‘busts’ and have struck gold on a few.
    2003 —Daric Barton-c
    2004 —Christopher R Lambert-p
    2005 —Mark A Mccormick-p, —James T Greene-ss, —Tyler D Herron-p, —Colby R Rasmus-of
    2006—Adam R Ottavino-p, —Christopher R Perez-p
    2007 —Peter M Kozma-ss, —Clayton G Mortensen-p
    2008 —Brett A Wallace-3B, —Michael L Lynn-p
    2009 —Shelby Miller -p
    2010 —Zach Cox-3B, —Seth Blair-p, —Tyrell Jenkins-p
    2011 —Kolten Wong-2B
    2012 —Michael Wacha-p
    ….I see four hits (Rasmus, Kozma, Miller and Wacha), possiibilites (Wong and Jenkins) and then the misses.

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    1. I’d say Lance Lynn turned out pretty well and Brett Wallace may suck now, but he was a pretty highly regarded prospect at one point and helped the Cardinals trade for Matt Holliday. Frankly, the Cards just seem to be getting better and better at player acquisition. Like the Braves, they produce player after player after player. It’s impressive and it allows them to do things like waving goodbye to one of the best hitters in MLB history (Pujols) and not skip a beat.

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      1. The depth of some of their drafts is especially impressive. The 2009 draft produced burgeoning stars Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams and Trevor Rosenthal. That, my friends, is a draft. I don’t think the Phillies have ever had an overall draft that good – certainly not one that I can recall.

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        1. The ‘money picks’, your number one picks, show that they strike out as much as the average organizations. They seem to make it up in their later rounds and some of their free agent signings.

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        2. Nor has anyone else. Give them credit but don’t bash others, the success of that draft is unheard of

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          1. I wasn’t bashing anyone, I was just saying how good the Cardinals are doing in the drafting and development of players. They are awfully, awfully good at getting their pitchers to throw at max ability – I think the coaching top to bottom in St. Louis is superb. Hell, they almost made Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook – guys who were journeymen at best – aces. Give credit where credit is due – that’s one great organization.

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            2. You still have to have some luck for later round guys (Carpenter, Rosenthal and Adams)to emerge as impact players.

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            3. Who is to say, the Phillies 2011 class can be somewhat impactful if Quinn, Morgan and Giles come around. Asche already has the high expectations within the organization.

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    2. I disagree. Kozma is run of the mill @ best, galvis would be every bit the player he is on that club. Rasmus is a disappointment based on where he was picked IMO. I’m in on miller and wacha and some unknowns. It’s a couple of later round guys that have really come up big for them, carpenter and rosenthal

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      1. Kozma is still young and he is there. Hits for me are making it to the MLB level since the majority of all minor leaguers never do. Now an impact player is a different story.
        And agree Miller and Wacha, right now would appear to be in that category.

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  6. Phillies have players in winter leagues in Venezuela (starts October 10) and the Dominican Republic (October 18).
    Anybody have an idea who all they are?

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    1. MiLB keeps a page of the winter league stats by org. I’ll include the link in my first or second AFL post.

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  8. Wally Joyner now gone. The man that changed Domo’s grip and paid off in big dividends. Unfortunately, not many others had similar success.

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    1. I’m concerned that after the crazy hot 2 months Dom had he then reverted back to the barely passable major leaguer at the end of the season.

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  9. Wow the Angels retain both Manager and GM for next season. My guess is Joyner lands there as hitting coach.

    I’m pretty excited about seeing Bowa back in pin stripes he seems to be a good compliment to Ryne’s personality.

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  10. Just a few more hours to Ryan Howard’s Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony.
    No doedoe…not Cooperstown NY, but Scottsdale, Arizona.

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  11. I’ve been going back and reading the threads from the drafts in 2007, 2008 and 2009. It’s interesting to see everyone’s take on the picks when they were made compared to how the players have actually preformed over the past few years. Hewitt and Collier were the 2 that most people were against the phillies taking and we can now see why. A lot of people commented that Matt Harvey wouldn’t be anywhere near a decent pitcher . . Obviously those ppl were off just a bit.

    Love the stuff that is on this site . . If over the off season there isn’t much to write on it might be interesting to go back over each draft and see where everyone is at, what picks were steals or busts and what draft was the most successful. Not sure if that’s been done but just an idea.

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    1. Must have only read the stuff previously agreed with and skipped the rest. Though the selection of Hewitt was widely panned (I believe mostly by draftniks sore that their edicts were not followed on who to draft) but, as I recall ,the selection of Collier was praised to the sky, particularly by the now deposed founder of the directorate. The idea to go back and look this stuff over is a good one, though, as it will pile more work on somebody’s plate, and serve to illustrate how wrong some of the other people on here have been , and continue to be. Or , perhaps, that can be the reason it never sees the light of day.

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  12. For the amateur scouts here, BP is looking for interns for the prospect/scouting side. Might be a good way to start.

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    1. Saw Joe Jordan’s interview tonight with Jim Salisbury on Miguel Gonzalez. They are impressed with his work ethic and fully expect him to be pitching right with the other pitchers in February.
      If he can come in be a good third in the rotation that would be a real plus.
      Now if Ruben would only go for Masa Tanaka or secondly,maybe Matt Garza that could further solidfy the rotation

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  14. I think the Phillies need to consider trading Domonic Brown for a package of prospects that includes a MLB ready #2-3 starers as well as a package of prospects that would blow me and the Phillies away. I’m not sure what Domonic Brown’s value is but I don’t think it’s ever been higher as he is an all star outfielder making the league minimum.

    I look at Arizona, a team with a lot of young high upside starting pitchers and a need for a left handed hitting outfield bat. I’m not sure we could pry Archie Bradley away but they have a lot of valuable young starters to start a package around.

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    1. Honestly, I don’t see many takers for Brown for a blow you away package. I think the value he gives the team would be more than you get in a trade. The rest of the league is still probably skeptical of his ability. He had a few partial seasons that have been nothing special, he had a really good 5-6 week stretch this year but the rest of the year was not much. He also always has some injury history. You could maybe swap Brown for a #2-3 starter but I don’t see you getting much else. Maybe a fringe top 100 prospect.

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      1. I don’t think that you can even get a #2-3 starter for Brown.

        Brown looks pretty good at the plate, but the rest of his game is lacking. Brown plus something else might get the Phillies an OF upgrade who is also young.

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      2. Fair enough. I’d definitely take calls on him if I was Ruben though. Kevin Towers is a guy who gave Trevor Bauer up for Didi Gregoerious so you never know what he’d be willing to give up.

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      3. The potential young OF upgrades for Brown all play CF, at least part-time. If the Phils are able to trade Brown plus something else for one of these upgrades, they might consider re-doing the entire outfield since Revere’s bat is not sufficient for one of the corners.

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  15. While not quite a rumor, David Price thinks he will be traded this year based on how other past Rays have been handled at this point in their arbitration years. Can/should the Phils go after him or is it better to go after Garza(less production and expensive) or Tanaka(much more expensive and an unknown)?

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    1. The Phillies can but it’s not really worth it is it? Price is a free agent in two years and the cost of doing business is obviously going to be Franco and Biddle and that’s just the starting point.

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    3. I don’t think the Phils have the wherewithal to get Price, but, in any event, they should keep their prospects and avoid trades like this.

      The Phils are a long shot for a playoff spot in 2014. If they are to have any chance at all, they should take some risks with the rotation. Lee, Hamels and MAG (?) will be three of the starters. The other two starters should be guys with high ceilings. Three pitchers fitting that description are Tanaka, Jimenez, and Josh Johnson.

      Only two Japanese pitchers have been more highly regarded than Tanaka in the last few years: Darvish and Dice-K. So, Tanaka will have a career more like ???

      Jimenez is inconsistent and doesn’t have the velocity or stuff he used to have, but he could perform like a no. 2. If the Indians make Jimenez a QO, the Phils should pass. Otherwise, he’s a candidate.

      Josh Johnson is Hamels’ age, and he has been a no.1. With him, the problem has always been health. This off-season he is recovering from surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. He’s had TJ surgery. He missed most of a season with shoulder problems. Johnson is a Hail, Mary, but he should come cheap, and, if he can maintain some semblance of health, his next team might have an effective pitcher for the next few years.

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      1. I kind of view Johnson as Ben Sheets (or Dan Haren) at this point. It is all about the asking price. I’d sign him for cheap, but not to a big price-tag. The question is will another team be willing to pay more.

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    1. The story suggests that MAG sits 94, 95 with the FB, touching 97 and that he throws a full arsenal of secondary offerings, including a knuckleball. Music to my ears. Could be an outstanding pick-up. And, yes, I’m pretty sure the Phillies will pick up one, perhaps two, of the best non-tender pitching candidates. It’s a risk but they have to take risks. Some of those guys turn into Daren Haren circa 2013 and others turn into AJ Burnett or Francisco Liriano. If they think Johnson is recovering his velocity, he may be worth a flier on a one year deal around $7-8 million with a second year option at $10 million and, say a $3 million buy out. Also would strongly consider giving Garza 4 years and $52 million. I think, in the right situation, he could be the bargain of the year. The arm is still fantastic and he could be on the verge of a big breakout but even if he’s not he should be roughly worth the contract and would solidify the rotation in a big way. Think about it this way, if you could use roughly Roy Hallday’s 2012 salary to acquire Johnson and Garza without losing any players, it’s a pretty significant step forward.

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        1. Maybe so – perhaps something like 5/70 – borderline call at that amount. Sanchez contract has been a good deal thus far for Detroit.

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      2. The combined AAV of Tanaka and Johnson should be less than Halladay’s over the last three years.

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        1. True, but then there is the impact on the Phillies budget as the AAV for cap purposes does not, I believe but could be wrong, include what will be a substantial up-front payment to Tanaka’s Japanese team for the exclusive right to negotiate with and sign him. So the issue is whether the ownerships only concern is staying under the lux cap or they have a profit/loss budget limit which would preclude the huge up-front payment. Coming up with a big enough up-front payment to win the negotiating rights to a Japanese star would be another first for the Phillies, if it actually happens. It would certainly be a welcome first. The Japanese and Cubans are about the only way left for a big revenue team to use its $$$ to its advantage, while avoiding Selig’s caps.

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        2. That’s kind of unfair since no one was complaining about Halliday’s contract when he signed it. The contract was seen as an incredible value. It just goes to show you how unpredictable pitching is. Would you rather give $20/yr to the most consistent pitcher of his generation or someone you has never thrown a pitch in the US (but has thrown a ton of pitches over seas). But wait, Tanaaka is likely to get a contract in the $10M/yr range? His posting fee will likely equal the cost of his contract.

          Also with Haren getting $13M last year I am not sure where people are getting $7-8M for Johnson.

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          1. Just maybe, Haren justifies a higher salary than Johnson because Haren has shown himself to be more durable than Johnson. Haren has had seven 200-inning seasons; Johnson, one. Also, last year Haren was coming off a 30-start season in which he threw 176 innings. This year, Johnson had only 16 starts, 81 innings and a 6.20 ERA.

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      3. Suggests is the right word to use on MAG’s velocity. This is not what he has thrown for the Phillies, as he hasn’t thrown other than long toss at CLW. It is his self-description of what he throws, more likely what he threw before the surgery to remove the bone chips. I thought the reports of his team tryout sessions were that he was currently throwing closer to 90.

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      4. I’m pretty sure that Garza will get 5 years and that there will be a big market for him because of no compensation. Regardless, the Phillies will certainly be a bidder. Santana and Jiminez will also be options but both will likely be tendered and require the loss of our 2nd rd pick and still get 4 years. The Phils need one of the three.

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  17. The Phils aren’t getting Price for the same reason they’re not getting Stanton. I could however see Price go to the Dodgers for one of the outfielders. Price for Puig? Interesting….

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  19. Here’s some transactional stuff, new from BA. Some players you can scratch off the list, if you, like me, actually try to keep a pen-and-ink list that you can scratch things off of without it costing too much.

    Released- Jim Birmingham, LHP

    Elected Free Agency- Zach Miner, RHP, Michael Martinez, INF-OF, Pete Orr, INF

    You won’t have those guys to kick around anymore.

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    1. In the case of MiniMart, addition by attraction. It’s unfathomable how he received so much p.t. with the big club these past few seasons

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  20. Ryan Lawrence on Mayberry:
    ‘But for the Phillies, parting ways with Mayberry may be an ideal case of addition by subtraction in an attempt to improve Sandberg’s bench for 2014.
    Mayberry, the first acquisition in the general managing career of Ruben Amaro Jr., has had a permanent place on the Phillies bench for three straight seasons. He hit .227 with a .667 OPS in 2013.
    Mayberry also had a -1.1 WAR. WAR is an all-encompassing stat, short for Wins Above Replacement, which factors in offense, defense and baserunning, measuring the number of wins a player contributes relative to a freely available minor league player.
    Of the 237 major league players with at least 350 plate appearances this season, only eight players had a worse WAR than Mayberry. Interestingly, two Amaro acquisitions from last winter, Delmon Young and Michael Young, ranked 226th and 231st on the same list, respectively.
    The two Youngs are no longer with the Phillies, and it’s probably time for Mayberry to move on, too. Mayberry is one of 10 players eligible for salary arbitration this winter; he would likely be in line to earn something close to $1 million in 2014 if he is tendered a contract.’

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    1. Agree with Ryan here. Mayberry might still be around if they are desperate enough but it’s not necessarily difficult to replace a player with below replacement-level value. He should be an easy non-tender – but who knows with RAJ

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      1. Would think the bench includes Frandsen, Galvis and Hernandez. And if they carry 11 pitchers and three catchers-Rupp, Kratz and Ruiz(?). The other starting 7 (How/Ut/Roll/Ash/Ruf/Rev/Brown) would appear in place…then there is room for one more player to get to 25..
        Mini-Mart still hopeful for another return to the Bank!

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        1. 3 catchers? Zero percent chance of that. I think Ruf will be on the bench and I think they’ll sign a left handed pinch hitter also. Frandsen vs Cesar might depend on whether Cesar is the back up CF or the new RF or left handed pinch is.

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            1. I don’t think ‘not good enough’ is the standard by which to measure the 2014 bench. Since 2014 will be a transitional year at best, there is no reason for the Phillies to have a contender-like bench. It is far more sensible to have a bench of guys aimed toward the future. Of the 5 listed here, Frandsen is really the only one who doesn’t fit that description. In terms of versatility, I can’t see all of Hernandez/Galvis/Frandsen making the team. One will be in AAA and there will be a true OF on the bench to go with the transplanted 1B Ruf. If RAJ acquires an OF, hopefully a youngish one, then the final bench spot may go to Revere. If not, it may be Bernadina or an OF not now in the organization.

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    1. “Phillies bullpen expensive but not necessarily worth all that money”

      Really? Really Ryan? I’ll take blatantly obvious facts for $500 Alex.

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  22. What do people think about signing Rajai Davis to possibly start in RF? He’s right handed and can steal a ton of bases. I think the Phils need to add speed and find a way to play more small ball without power but I’m just not sure if Rajai hits enough. He wants a chance to play.

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    2. He looks to be Revere offensively. He isn’t young and has established himself as a sub-.700 offensive guy.

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    3. Personally would rather trade Dom Brown and Ben Revere to the Brewers for Carlos Gomez and Victor Roache.

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      1. Carlos Gomez is a 27 y/o MVP candidate. So yeah, I’d trade Drown and Revere for him. No way the Brewers do that.

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      2. Phllies will need to add a young arm to the mix of Brown and Revere to get Gomez and Roache. Someone like a Pettibone, Martin or a healthy Morgan.

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  23. Joe Jordan on Tommy Joseph:
    Tommy Joseph got back to catching after suffering a concussion in early May that limited his 2013 season to 35 games and created questions about his future behind the plate. Instead, he was limited to catching drills. His only game action was four at-bats Wednesday, Oct 9th, as a designated hitter. The following day, Joseph visited Micky Collins, a concussion specialist at the University of Pittsburgh who was scheduled to test the catcher’s vision Friday.
    “He has been medically cleared 100 percent for baseball activities by [two other] doctors he has seen,” Jordan said. “There was a little bit of conflicting information from the two doctors even though they both cleared him 100 percent. We said, ‘Listen, let’s send him up [to Pittsburgh] . . . to get a third opinion from the best guy in the business – Collins – and hopefully it puts him at ease, us at ease, and everything is a go.’ ”
    Jordan said the Phillies may send Joseph to winter ball if he gets a third clean bill of health from Collins. “We’ve got to place him, so we’re a little bit behind the eight-ball on that because most of the winter league clubs have their players . . . but we’re going to try to do that,” Jordan said. “If it happens, great. If it doesn’t, it’s not the end of the world. He’ll be in here in big-league camp and ready to go.”

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  24. Pettibone on Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez:
    Pettibone could be seen during the FIL camp playing catch almost every day with Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, the 27-year-old Cuban righthander the Phillies hope becomes their third starter in 2014.
    “He has a good arm,” Pettibone said. “He throws hard and it’s firm. Me and him are on the same throwing program. I haven’t seen him off the mound, but so far what I’ve seen is a live arm and strong.” Pettibone and Gonzalez both were scheduled to stay in Clearwater beyond the FIL camp and work toward throwing off the mound.

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  25. Early but, Rupp and Giles doing well in the AFL.
    Giles WHIP of .5, with 5 Ks in 2 IPs. no BBs.
    Looks like Perkins will replace Altherr I assume.
    Nesseth and Simon need to pick it up.

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  26. Anyone think Tim Hudson is a possibility? I don’t know that he’d be interested in the Phillies, but he should be a solid pickup for someone.

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