I knew I wanted to discuss the top tools in the system as a way of recapping the year and initially it was going to be one massive post with just a name next each tool. I thought this format would be more interesting for breaking down the tool itself and why it is important and the ways we judge it.
Power is probably the sexiest tool in baseball right next to fastball velocity. There are few things as visceral as someone crushing a baseball into the stands. Power is a tool that we often wait on in the minors as players develop physically and mentally. We often refer to raw power and power projection and often times they never come along, but when it does it can be special.
In Game Power – Maikel Franco
Honorable Mentions – Zach Green and Dylan Cozens
In game power is what you want to see by the time a player reaches the majors. At its simplest, in game power is the ability to hit a ball really hard when someone is trying to get you out. Franco generates his power with lighting quick hands and great forearm strength. He gets good plane on his swing but it is not a swing that relies on leverage and length. Additionally Franco can hit almost any pitch in any location out of the ball park. He is still driven by dead pull power, but there is certainly the strength to hit them out the other way. It would also be nice if he picked his spots a bit more and got himself into better counts. That being said Franco is showing plus to plus plus in game power right now.
Raw Power – Dylan Cozens
Honorable Mentions – Jose Pujols, Zach Green, Maikel Franco
Raw power is the ability to hit a defenseless ball really far. It is a skill that is really only useful in homerun derbies and batting practice. The big deal about raw power is that it can be a projection of things to come. Somethings that can change this include a suspect hit tool that does not let the batter make consistent, solid contact or the batter is showing you a different swing between BP and games.
As for the 4 names listed, you could make a case for each of them as they all have between 65 and 70 grade raw power, but I went with Cozens here. Cozens is a giant of a human being, and it is almost all frame and muscle. The swing is naturally a bit long because of his size, but not long enough to worry about going forward. What it allows him to do is put huge leverage on a baseball and drive it up and out. The swing itself is a thing of beauty and there is not a lot to change there. He will still needs to work on his approach in order to put himself in a better position to make contact but there is time to work on it. Cozens will go to a notoriously bad HR park, in Lakewood, in 2014 but it is the type of power that should render ball parks irrelevant.
Projected Power – Jose Pujols
Sometimes when looking at a young player you see the parts for power but the strength and mechanics aren’t quite there. This is a situation where good scouting can really pay off as a guy goes from below average raw power to driving balls out of the park (some great examples are Manny Machado, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa who are still growing into their strength). Pujols is that and more, someone who watched a ton of him this year put the current raw power at 65, and there is still room on the frame for more strength. Pujols possesses great strength, but it is the bat speed that really separates him from his peers. As he grows and refines his approach Pujols has the potential to have near elite power. For now though we still have better than plus power to dream on.
Phuture Phillies 
I like this format.
It seems to me, as an outsider, that the Phillies correctly recognized that with the end of the PED era (or at least the end of rampant use of easily detectable steroids) natural raw power was a tool they needed to prioritize. Hence, the last few drafts have yielded guys like Cozens, Green and LGJr. As the the latter example suggests, these are high-risk bets, but I’m definitely looking forward to the day–maybe not too far off in Franco’s case–when we get to see how this power plays in Citizens Bank Park, where the offense has been far to quiet lately.
LikeLike
Good idea and well written. Happy to see the realism of not including LGJ under raw power.
LikeLike
I have been hearing 50s on the raw BP power these days which is pretty damning. The swing needs a complete rebuild and then we can discuss him again.
LikeLike
Wow. How did he go from 80 on draft day to 50? Was the 80 always just a myth, or has he regressed?
LikeLike
I have nothing constructive to add just wanted to thank you for the great post.
LikeLike
Where would Santana and Singleton rank for Raw and in-game power?
LikeLike
Santana – Raw 65-70, in-game 60, I still don’t completely trust the hit tool
Singleton – Raw 70, in-game 50, He is really regressing and you wonder if he is really going to put it all together
I would still put them behind Cozens on raw power but in the honorable mentions. Franco crushes both of them in the in-game power category.
LikeLike
I have to say that Singleton’s regression is one of the more surprising developments I’ve seen in the time I’ve been following prospects on this site. If ever there looked like a guy who had the total package (at least offensively) it was him. What happened? Is it possible that all of the patience he showed at the plate was marijuana-fueled?
LikeLike
I have heard he has been more out of shape and has lost some athleticism. At one point he was considered an elite defender at first base, but he might be DH only down the road. I might give the stats some amount of pass given the missed time and training to start the year. Overall he is looking more like a first division regular than a star.
LikeLike
Just goes to show, you can’t judge trades for a few years. I think most people on this site felt like Singleton was the centerpiece of that trade with Cosart looking like a bullpen piece. Instead, Cosart was awesome in his first trip around the league and Singleton looks like a DH only.
I guess the wild card is Santana, who was always the guy whose inclusion grated the most for me. Where would he rank in our system at this point? #3 behind Franco and Biddle?
LikeLike
His K rate is scary.
LikeLike
Santana would certainly be behind Franco, Biddle, and Crawford, I think he is a borderline Top 100 prospect
LikeLike
Santana was the PTBNL (or at least on the PTBNL list) which I couldn’t understand . . Usually these aren’t prospects . . And while Santana wasn’t exactly a top 10 prospect at the time, he certainly was going to be one. It’s prob comparable if Jose Pujols was thrown in as a last piece to a trade. He’ll end up being the most successful player in that trade or at least that’s my opinion.
LikeLike
PTBNL is a misleading term. While there are instances where guys are simply thrown in later, there are also times when key pieces of trades are not able to be announced due to contract status, draft position, etc. For example, I know that drafted players can’t be traded within the first year after signing. So they would need to be a PTBNL for a period before they were announced and changed organizations. There are also 40 man roster considerations heading into Rule 5, etc.
I don’t remember (if we even knew) the case with Santana for the Pence trade, but just because he was a PTBNL does not mean Houston didn’t consider him essential to the trade.
LikeLike
That is funny . I guess some it hinders and others it helps . Like phelps or i suppose singleton . And wait lincecum was cy young until he got busted . To be honest the illegality of weed is still based on total bull crap propaganda of past and a touch of racism. Alcohol is much more debilitating but more established
LikeLike
If he had marijuana in his system at the plate, it would only hurt him. Marijuana has big effects on the brain and reflexes.
LikeLike
wrong , and drugs affect people in different ways , so maybe he is hyperactive and cant focus and weed brings everything into an equilibrium., thanks for the opinion though, and it is debatable
LikeLike
I have to think his performance this year was related to the suspension and probably being out of shape. He is still young and his patience is elite. His numbers (especially strikeouts) this year were so aberrant compared to the last few years that I don’t think they will continue.
LikeLike
Yeah, I was making a joke about the pot suspension, but it’s funny that some people actually took the question seriously.
LikeLike
Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely…Philies need to be absolutely corrupt when the draft.
LikeLike
They should go for a top college Arm
LikeLike
They should go for BPA… which given the way the draft looks at this moment, appears to be a pitcher…
LikeLike
I think you are 100% correct . Got any ideas of who they should be after
LikeLike
Tyler Beede of Vanderbilt
LikeLike
Speaking of raw power, Jacob Gatewood is a kid who can crush it. He could be there at 7 and could be a nice pick but the phillies should grab the BPA.
LikeLike
Gatewood certainly has the power. I am scared of what scouts have said about the hit tool. When you are picking that high it is hard to take the no hit athlete. As much as it sucks you can miss on Hewitt’s in the back of the first round. All that being said, a long way to go for Gatewood before the draft.
LikeLike
Beede is a cocky kid . . Is he good? yes but I can’t stand his attitude. When he was picked by the Blue Jays (1st Rd – 22nd overall) a few years ago he laughed at the fact that he wasn’t a top 5 pick and said he was offended by where he was drafted. Really? I know it’s not going to happen but if he went undrafted I’d love it.
LikeLike
The Phillies suck at developing pitchers. They can accept that fact and focus on their strength of developing bats – and then trading them for big league arms, or they can keeping wasting picks on guys who never pan out or break down because of the poor mechanics taught by the Phillies development staff.
My vote is to go for a bat.
Great article Matt. Love the format. Any chance you’d be willing to project next years stats for the players that you’ve highlighted?
LikeLike
I would tend to agree, but in 2014 with the 7th pick, a guy like Beede, Nola or AIken or even Kolek if he falls to them, would be no brainers I would think. And should develop.
LikeLike
I am not comfortable projecting overall stats because I don’t know where they will play, I am also not comfortable with park factors such as in Lakewood. For just HRs I would say that this would be my ranges and they may be wildly off.
Franco – 20-30HRs (Lehigh Valley is the biggest pitchers parks in the minors)
Cozens & Green – 15-20HRs (the park suppresses power to a huge degree)
Pujols – 7-12HRs (Short season Williamsport, neutral ball park)
LikeLike
Larry Greene to the Dominican to play winter ball
LikeLike
If so, that would be the first time he was taking pro ball seriously. He’s way behind the curve… Wish him well, but verify.
LikeLike
Yeah, he’s not going to the Dominican. They aren’t going to take on a kid who can’t hit in low A ball, particularly one who isn’t a native.
LikeLike
I see the Phillies drafting pitchers on their first three picks in 2014. And two of them being college-arms.
LikeLike
I hope you are correct. The coming draft is said to be thick with better pitching prospects. I hope that all 3 of our top picks ARE pitchers…from college.
The HS guys can be taken later. After the first 3 picks, then go for (right-handed) outfielders. Maybe picks #4 etc can concentrate on them as college guys, too.
All to get guys ASAP to MLB. 2-3 years for worthy college guys.
LikeLike
Not totally on board with that statement. Kendrick was a 6th or 7 th round pick which means he had to be rough around the edges and be developed. Pettibone 3rd round pick. Diekman later pick, de fratus a later pick. Cosart was a later pick. None are world beaters but had to be developed further from where they were when drafted. Maybe they do well with their higher picks that are pitchers but it seems they have developed some arms
LikeLike
One of the scariest things about Pujols is that he’s still so young there’s a chance he could still add additional height which would make his swing even longer.
LikeLike
I’ll take hit tool over power any day. Granted there does need to be a mix of the two. You can have all the raw power you want but without a decent hit tool it is just a minor league flame out. St. Louis is a prime example of what can be done with + hit tool players without eye popping power. 13th in the league in HR’s but 1st in runs scored.
LikeLike
I’d be surprised if Hewitt still wasn’t the guy with the top raw power. Maybe he wasn’t in consideration, but as an honorable mention kind of thing. Kid is a BP superstar. He would also add to the conversation in the sense that he’s the prototypical worst case scenario (or close to it) in terms of drafting on raw power without any hint of in-game power.
LikeLike
I definitely thought about Hewitt in the raw power category but ultimately decided he wasn’t in the prospect consideration I was looking for (once you open that you have to start considering Jim Murphy and others like that). It is big raw power in the plus to plus plus range. More than anything with Hewitt, I completely ignore the raw power because he has proven the hit tool is just not going to let it play in games.
LikeLike
I think Larry Greene Jr. is our new worse case scenario! Hewitt looks like he’ll crack AAA. I didn’t think he’d make it beyond A ball, and I was wrong. Good for him. Hopefully LGJ and figure something out over the winter and prove me wrong about him as well.
LikeLike
General Discussion –
Breaking News:
Phillies let 10-year catching/bullpen coach Mick Billmeyer go.
Phillie Phanatic fears he’s next!
LikeLike
I know that it is hard because tools don’t always transfer into stats and the scouting tools don’t really take into consideration things like approach, pitch recognition and selection, ect. but what do people see as the triple slash line of the five year peak of a player with a plus hit tool and average power versus someone with a plus power and average hit tool?
LikeLike
A 60 hit 50 power guy is going to his ~.280 with 15-20HRs, essentially the projection on Asche.
A 50 hit 60 power guys in more in the ~.270 with ~25HRs
But those have a lot of yearly variance and luck, along with park factors and things like that.
LikeLike
Asche has been undervalued since he brought attention to himself at high A ball. Complaints have been that he doesn’t have enough power and his fielding at 3rd base was suspect. Taking another look at THIS time, we see that his fielding has become above average. Yet not enough credit is given to his power. The prediction of 15-20 HRs does not give credence to the power numbers I expect from him. I see an average of 25 HRs/season. Especially considering the friendly climes at CBP. IMO it is time to dispense with the lower grades given him initially by many here.
LikeLike
I think he can peak at 25 some year, but still see him averaging somewhere bewteen 17 and 21 over an extended period of years. Averaging 25HRs a year, could be difficult.
LikeLike
I’m more with you on this. I see Asche’s likely optimal outcome as 18-23 homers a year, with perhaps a slightly higher peak. Also don’t agree with Art that Asche is above average in the field. I think he has the potential to be above average and shows a phenomenal work ethic that could take him there and makes periodic excellent plays. Right now, however, the metrics say that he is below average and I agree with that because he still flubs a lot of balls.
I predicted that Asche will be an above average regular and I still think he will be. Whether he reaches that status will depend upon him improving in a lot of areas, which I think he can, but it’s not clear that he will. To do this, he will need to get close to his power potential – at least be in the range of around 20 homers a year. He’s going to need to hit a lot of doubles too – this could be the key. He’s going to have to continue to evolve as a base runner – I like his skills there – he’s sneaky fast like Utley. He’s going to have to draw a good share of walks – say close to 50-60 a year, at least – because his batting average is unlikely to be much above .280, at best. And he’s going to have to reach his potential as a fielder, which will take a ton of work. If he does this, he could be a 3+ WAR player with occasional seasons where he plays like a borderline all-star. That’s the type of player that can help a contending team – the Cardinals have a ton of guys like that.
LikeLike
Yeah I see Asche as a .280, 15-20 HR player. As you say, with those numbers he will need to hit a lot of doubles and improve in the field to really be an above average regular. It is certainly possible.
LikeLike
Well, I’m betting that he will ascend to the mentioned figures because he hasn’t disappointed me in my predictions about him from 2 years ago. I note his resemblance to our friend Utley in his work ethic and potential leadership characteristics. Utley himself has taken notice of something special about him…requesting his locker be next door to his.
That IS something special. I “insist” that we have a lot more in this guy than given credit for. And he is now 23….with many good years at 3rd base for this franchise. Best since Schmidtty.
LikeLike
‘ Best since Schmidtty.’ – Already you forgot about Scott Rolen, Charlie Hayes, Pedro Feliz, Dave Hollins?
LikeLike
Little too early to call him the best since Michael Jack. I’d say he’d have to prove he could be better then Hollins and Rolen before Schmidt . . .
LikeLike
It’s hard to envision a situation where Asche is as good as Rolen. Hate to tell you this, but Rolen is a borderline HOF candidate. Some have rated him as among the top 10 players in baseball for the decade of 2000-2009. If Asche is anywhere within shouting distance of Rolen as a player, we should be ecstatic, but I don’t expect he has that type of ability.
LikeLike
Further Rolen Evidence:
Scott Rolen has 70 career WAR over 17 seasons, he has 9 Gold Gloves, and the defensive numbers to back them up. By Jay Jaffe’s JAWs which looks at Hall of Famers based on both their career WAR as well as their peak has him as the 10th best 3B of all time. The only players in front of him not in the HOF are Chipper Jones and Adrian Beltre. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml
LikeLike
Yup.
LikeLike
He clearly has had a HOF calibur career, but the reason I said he was a borderline HOF candidate is that he’s going to be one of these players who gets a lot less love from the writers than he should due to a lack of an MVP season and a reputation as being a bit frosty with the writers. But I think, in time, he’ll probably get in as the statistical analysis assumes a greater role in HOF selection. If he had played 30 years ago under the exact same circumstances I can almost guarantee he would not have gotten in.
LikeLike
Plus catch…in the era of the PEDs in which he played and the inlated stats put up by the abusers..Scott Rolen was a saint.
So his numbers could be more endearing to writers.
LikeLike