The rosters for this year’s Arizona Fall League were supposed to be announced at 2PM EST today, but they very uncoolly made us wait until nearly 2:30. The Phillies are sending Aaron Altherr, Cameron Rupp and Kelly Dugan as position players, plus pitchers Kyle Simon, Mike Nesseth, Austin Wright and Ken Giles, (per Ryan Lawrence – update – Lawrence has a roster that shows Giles – The AFL Website does not include him). The season begins October 8 and runs through the 16th of November.
As discussed last week, the Phils needed to send six guys, but they seem to typically send seven. Only one man from below A Ball is supposed to be allowed to go to the AFL from any organization, so the picks of Giles and Altherr are a little confounding. Perhaps since The Phils are sending 7 guys, they were allowed an extra A Ball player, or maybe the rules have changed and just not been posted on the AFL site. Don’t know. The roster rules also states that any man not on a AA or AAA roster by August 1 counts and an A Baller, and players from any level who are currently on or recently came off the DL cannot be included. Nothing in there has been violated by the Altherr/Giles addition, so I still don’t know. Whatever.
(Update on the rules – After they tweeted Giles as part of the roster, I asked the AFL Twitter account and got a response that two A Ball exceptions are allowed per team. This must be new for 2013, and the roster rules weren’t updated on the website).
Altherr is up for a 40-man spot. Giles has one more year before than decision has to be made. Even though Perci Garner has a 40-man decision looming, he wasn’t above CLR by 8-1, so I’d figured he would have needed to supplant Altherr. Extra spot or not, him not making it is not a surprise.
I thought Adam Morgan would go to the AFL as a starter, if healthy. Not sure what his exclusion means, but I won’t read too much into it. It’s not abnormal for frontline starting candidates to be left out of the AFL, just because of innings limits and the like. Thanks to injuries, Austin Wright and Kyle Simon likely have some innings to work with this year, and we’ll have to see if either of them is used as a starter. Simon was used as one last year in the AFL, with less-than stellar results. Neither man has a 40-man decision looming this off-season.
Tyler Knigge, who’d have been be vying for a 40-man spot, was left off. Mike Nesseth, in a similar situation, was included. His promotion to AAA recently made it pretty clear the org is happy with his progress. If he doesn’t implode in the AFL, I would guess he’s in line for a 40-man roster spot. If not, he would almost certainly be taken in the Rule 5 draft.
For the field, I felt like Kelly Dugan was an easy pick. He’s got a 40-man decision looming, but frankly, he’s made that decision for the team based on his play. Cameron Rupp also was a strong candidate, in my mind, especially since he shared time with Sebastian Valle for much of the first two months of the year and didn’t have a huge season workload because of it. Another 40-man decision there, and another easy one. He seems likely to be up with the big club in September anyway.
So here was my guess from last week – for the position players, I had Altherr, Dugan and Rupp. For the mound – Morgan, Wright and Colvin, plus Knigge, based on his contract situation. If Morgan didn’t go, I thought it would be Hollands. And since Colvin went down, and someone mentioned Mike Nesseth, I was assuming that was they way the club would go. So I got the position players right, and two relievers with the backup for injury in Nesseth. plus they changed the rules on me or whetever. So not exactly Nostradamus, but not bad.
What do you all think? Satisfied with this contingent? It seems a pretty good one to me, with seven guys that have to be considered at least fringe if not true prospects.
Phuture Phillies 
Have to like the selections. Dugan, Rupp and Altherr should get valuable experience and added confidence knowing that many outstanding players have gone before them in the AFL prior to making the majors, not withstanding Tyson and Gary Brown.
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Agreed. I think this was pretty good group to send
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I am going to show my ignorance for this process – can someone educate me? Say I am a recent draft choice, and my season ends, what are the normal options?
1) A very small number of folks go to the Arizona Fall League. These would tend to be slightly more seasoned players, often times who were injured, or the organization wants to see in more real-game action?
2) you then have the Florida Instructional League – this tends to be for very recent draftees/signees, right? I assume just a small # of Phillies players would be here?
3) You then have winter ball, which primarily caters to the Latin players, right?
4) I assume you then have people that continue to work out in Clearwater, right?
Where does a Larry Greene Jr. go, a Crawford go, a Walding go, a Gillies go? Do they basically say “see you in January”, or do most minor leaguers continue to be involved with formal leagues, or are at minimum with the staff in Clearwater at least well into the fall?
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Crawford, Greene, and Walding might go down to Florida for a few weeks but it is likely the Phillies just send Walding and Greene home. There will likely be someone to check on them every so often, but essentially it is see you next year. They might send them home with a list of things to work on. Crawford might not spend much time in Florida, they will likely tweak a couple of things they didn’t have time to earlier in the year. As for Instructs it is essentially like Extended Spring Training with informal games without defined rules and a lot more one on one work.
Gillies is a little different. He likely has a choice to go play winter ball or not and it will depend on how he feels.
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I can answer some of this – AFL is supposed to be high level competition, so you get guys who have 40-man roster decisions looming and higher prospects, to see how they do against a more seasoned level of players. Pitching, though, tends to be a little thin, as starters aren’t used often, due to innings limits their teams impose. Last year, you had a couple fringy relievers, Knigge, Jay Johnson, Simon and Shreve, plus Zach Collier, (who had a 40-man decision last off-season), Tommy Joseph and Cody Asche, (who did not).
I’m not entirely sure on the FIL, but it seems often to be for younger guys, but it’s domestic and international. 2013 Latin signees may appear here, (Pujols and Grullon and others did last year), and also most if not all of the 2012-2013 draft classes, plus any other guys who need work.
Winter ball is largely Latin American guys, but some very new “domestic” big league and higher level MiLB guys go there. Last year this included Gillies, Ruf, Friend, and a bunch of LA guys. The leagues are serious, enough so that Dom Brown’s 2011 Dom. Rep. season was cut short when he wasn’t up to par with the league and couldn’t get on the field.
How many people work out in CLR in the fall outside of instructs, I couldn’t say.
So if LGj Crawford and Walding are going anywhere other than home to rest, it’s probably FIL. Gillies may wind up back in Venezuela this off-season. Currently injured guys are probably continuing rehab in CLR, until/unless the same rehab can be done at home.
Someone else probably has more details on the activites in CLR. Some of our regulars are there watching games when they get a chance, etc.
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thank you guys. As you can see, I am a bit new to some of the intricacies. Thanks again for all that you do.
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Based on what they usually do with the FIL, they usually invite all of the younger draftees, and the just signed Latin american signees. This will probably be the 1st time anyone gets to see Encarnacion.
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The offseason assignment question, I’d like to tack something on here.
It has been my evaluation, watching postseason assignments for “awhile”, that the Arizona Fall League is , roughly, for players considered to be at the AA level , and the org. is looking to move them closer to the AAA or , perhaps, MLB level. The fall instructional league will play some “instructional league” type games using a roster with a “first string” and “second string”, if you will. The “first string” would roughly be High-A type players they can move closer to the AA level, and a “second string” comprised, roughly of Rookie League types they can ready for Short Season or Low-A. They will also bring a few extra catchers and some newly signed players and a few others , maybe. Being an ” instructional type league” they can manipulate things around to get everyone playing time.
The foreign Winter Leagues are money making (hopefully for the owners) operations run by businessmen in the local area. They have rights, per agreements, to players native to their lands, and will select a roster based on the likelihood of success, with said roster. They will bring in some foreigners for the same reasons, and if a player of either category doesn’t do it for them, they might give them the boot.
I would think organizational players not assigned to any of these programs, might also work out at the Spring Training complex on an “as needed” basis.
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Wes, the Phillies’ 2012 FIL roster included 52 players – 23 pitchers, 6 catchers, 13 infielders, and 10 outfielders. I watched all home games and the away games played at the Blue Jays site in Dunedin. They appeared to have a platoon system where the same 8 position players were on the field together. The platoons played every other game. Substitutions were made from the remaining “non-platoon” players. Maybe once a week a third platoon might make it onto the field, but some players did not play that much. Others, played the first week or two before being allowed to go home. The roster was made up of players from Lakewood, Williamsport, GCL, DSL, and VSL. The only four players from above Lakewood were Readings Kennelly and Clearwater’s H. Martinez, Giles, and O’Sullivan. The roster included 19 of 24 players from their 2012 draft class. Missing were Carver, Sisto, Broussard, Carman, and Nichols.
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I think you’re overvaluing Mike Nesseth. To say he would be a lock to be taken in Rule V is a stretch, imo.
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Not so – I saw his performance last night and there’s virtually zero chance he lasts through a Rule 5. As a reliever, he would be VERY easy to hide for a year in a 12 man pitching staff, except you wouldn’t have to hide him. He’d be, at worst, a very functional mop up guy and probably quite a bit better than that. He’s got value.
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What is it that makes people like Nesseth so much? He’s a 25-year-old who’s never managed a K/BB better than 2, has never beat 6 K/9, and has been old for every level he’s pitched at. Am I missing something in the scouting? I thought he was supposed to be a low-90s guy without any killer secondary offering.
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Agreed
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Yeah, I’m rethinking Nesseth as well. I was overvaluing him.
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You have to see him pitch. His stuff is a lot better than the statistics would indicate and he’s starting to put it all together. In terms of stuff, he’s like a light version of Aumont except he has much, much better control than Aumont. I’m telling you, there’s something there with Nesseth.
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Pretty much an expected list. I could not see Morgan going given his arm history – there’s no way you leave a guy like that to the whims of some manager who doesn’t work for you. This is a clear and final sign that Zach Collier will not be protected (which is the right choice). To me, the only kind of unexpected choices were Simon (he didn’t do too well last year and doesn’t seem to have made much progress this year) and Wright (has struggled, maybe they want to see him in extended duty as a reliever). Was a little surprised, but not that much, by Rupp, if only because he’s so close to being a major leaguer. Perhaps they want him to work more on his hitting in advance of the spring.
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Can’t say i’ll be paying any attention to the AFL this year… but that’s ok. Definitely expected.
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Just your daily reminder that for Zach Collier he cannot simply be “left unprotected” in the Rule 5 draft. If they remove him from the 40 man roster he will be subject to waivers where any team good put him on their 40 man roster with two option years remaining. There would be no requirement to have him on their major league roster.
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Okay, thanks. Sorry, but I haven’t been keeping up on the Zach Collier waiver wire stuff as I view him to be almost entirely irrelevant at this point. He’s not going to be a passable major leaguer.
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Collier was protected after playing in the AFL last year. He’s already on the 40-man
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They tried to send franco and were denied, so i guess he plays in the winter league with dominican team. lot of baseball for a young kid.
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Actually, Franco was already committed to a dominican winter league team. The winter league team would not let him out of his commitment — that’s why he’s not on the AFL roster.
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Can we speculate which players under contract will be dropped off the 40man in the offseason. Also who will be added. In my opinion. Dugan. Rupp and altheerr are the locks
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I’m not sure Altherr’s a lock. He’s not ready to play in the Majors yet and it’s hard to hide a position player. That said, there’s space, so may as well protect him, I’m just not sure he would stay with whatever team may take him.
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Just a gut feeling, but do you think Morgan was also left off the AFL roster because he will be a Sept. call up & they don’t want to push his innings beyond that? Also does Rupp being included in the AFL roster mean he won’t be a Sept. call up? Have players in past done both?
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I cant imagine that Morgan will be a September call up…why push him at this stage. It makes no sense.
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Not sure I recall a Phillies situation where a Sept callup went to AFL, but they do play in Fall/Winter leagues – Darin Ruf went to Venezuela last year. I don’t think there’s any reason he can’t do both. He’d be one of three catchers in September, so he should have a lot of downtime.
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2 points: I’ve been very down on Collier, but he has had a good 2nd second half offensively. I assume that the 40 man decision on him is tougher than Gillies, who has used his last shot. But there are a lot of 40 man guys to drop: Lannan, Miner, JC Ramirez, Pete Orr, probably Cesar Jimenez, maybe Kratz, Casper Wells, quite possibly John Mayberry, maybe Bernardina, Gillies, Cloyd, Valdes, McDonald, Martinez, and Valle would all be ahead of Collier for me. That gives you 9 spots for DLed guys if they need to be counted, of which there are 5, and outside guys/guys who newly need to be protected. You also will subtract Michael Young, which gives you an extra spot, and Robles seems to not be in their plans, so that would be another spot.
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Great predictions by Brad!
I think Altherr and Nesseth are playing for 40man spots. If either are excellent (like Collier last year) then Phillies will likely decide to protect them.
I agree that Nesseth does not seem like a MLB caliber reliever unless I am missing some great pitch he has that I do not know about.
Altherr might get a boost due to the hitters bias in AFL and get himself onto the 40man (maybe in place of Collier).
Simon going again is a surprise.
I’d have preferred to see Rupp as Sept callup, but Phillies always seem to send a Catcher to AFL. With Valle not eligible and Joseph MIA, I guess sending Rupp is better than sending someone like Carman or Dalles who is a non-prospect.
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