We should expect to see a handful of AAA guys up with the big club next Tuesday. Lehigh Valley has a Monday game, and barring a big push, they won’t make the playoffs – there are 2 teams ahead of them and one tied with them for one wild card spot. Long odds with just a week left.
With as poorly as he’s played, I could see the team leaving Gillies out of the MLB mix, but if he’s been working hard and acting right, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rewarded with a taste. Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis seem to be locks, as would MiniMart. I would say also every pitcher on the 40-man will be up, so we’ll get Cloyd, (I hastily typed Horst the first time. He’s not coming back this year), Garcia and Valdes back, and probably a couple looks at Mauricio Robles, plus Joe Savery whenever he’s healthy, if he’s not already back in the bigs this week.
Valle and Collier are the only guys left at AA, and I don’t see either of them making the jump. That leaves no third catcher, and I would guess it’s Cam Rupp’s turn. He’s earned a 40-man spot for the off-season anyway, so you may as well use him now. That could cost someone else their spot, but Lannan might be a 60-day candidate, especially if they intend to non-tender him. That’s another debate altogether – off-season roster management should be pretty interesting this year.
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
Just a general comment about the payroll number from the other thread.
Cot’s just gives a basic analysis and the Michael Young payment is at the bottom.
ESPN was using a more accurate number that included payments to guys called up.
Either way we had the third or fourth highest payroll in MLB this year and got very little in return. One would think that in the overall discussion of who to bring back Amaro has to be feeling some heat for the contracts to Howard, Papelbon, Hamels, Utley, and Rollins.
Roster construction, especially on the pitching side, will be very interesting this offseason. The fielders are pretty much locked in already with the exception of catcher so not much will be done there. The bench will be an interesting topic.
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I think it will be interesting to see what they do with the pitching. This team was built on the assumption that pitching would be great and that hasn’t really come to fruition. Hard to be a pitching team without good pitching. Lee and Hamels are bankable high performance starters but the rest of the rotation isn’t even close to that level. Halladay’s had a huge dropoff. He can still be effective I think but not on that same level. So the starting pitching is no longer top notch and the relief pitching has been very terrible. If anyone wants to know why this team has done badly over the last two years this is it: they are a pitching team that has been ranked 25th this year and a somewhat pedestrian 11th last year.
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The bigger mistake was thinking you can be a club that relies on pitching while at the same time ignoring defense. The club won a World Series with Hamels-Myers-Blanton-Moyer but terrific defense at every position except 1B and LF (where it was at least adequate).
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Well the defense getting worse was a side-effect of the Phillies addressing a sympton and not the problem with their ace pitching approach.
The Phillies became a juggernaut because of their offense. Those players then got older and their performance dropped off, some of those players left and were not replaced by better offensive players (Burrell/Werth/Victorino). As the offense put up fewer runs per game the Phillies solution was not to look at replacing undeperforming position players, it was to try to get better pitching to win with lesser run production.
However, one of the side-effects of players becoming less productive was that for many of those players it was the gradual decline of their skills as they got older and that decline included defensive range and skills on the field.
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Um, the 2008 Phillies were a juggernaut? They barely made the playoffs and it took another collapse by the Mets for them to win the division. The 2011 Phillies were a juggernaut that cruised to 102 victories. That team was built on pitching.
You cannot use postseason success as a barometer for how to build a team.
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And , if the Rays hadn’t beat the Red Sox, I could see the Phillies coming up short to the Sox in ’08.
OTOH, luck is usually involved in most championships in all sports.
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No offense, but using the 2008 team as any barometer is wrong. The point is to build a team to make the playoffs because once that team teams there, anything can happen. This can happen with a team centered around offense or defense.
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I am not sure I undertsand your point.
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I guess I’m trying to say that over the course of the 07-11 run, pitching became more prominent for the team and they still had just as much success (if not more) than the 07-08 teams. Unfortunately, the 09-11 teams didn’t end up winning a WS, which is due to the fact that the playoffs are a crapshoot.
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Riggs is correct. By almost ANY measure but the ultimate measure(Winning the world series) the 09-11 teams were better in almost EVERY way. What ’08 had was an unstoppable bullpen that clicked for one year. Lidge was unhittable. Madson was unhittable. Romero and Eyre crushed any lefty they saw. Durbin and Condrey were totally respectable. It was a lucky confluence of events that won the Phillies that World Series.
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In that case I agree. My point was just that the neglecting of defense over the past two seasons has been as detrimental as anything to the club’s decline and is at least partially atrributable to decline in staters ERA.
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I’m sure that a degraded defense hasn’t helped. But, I can’t say just how much it has hurt. What has hurt more has been having one of the worst bullpens in baseball for two years running. What hurts is having a first baseman not even putting up league average numbers while k’ing 30% of the time in the 4 hole because your manager is an idiot. What has hurt has not having viable options in 2 of your 3 outfield spots 80% of the time.
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I hope that Ryno has the balls to try a platoon at 1B next year (unless. COMPLETELY healthy Howard is back). The question would be who do you platoon him with? Prob Mayberry Jr
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Even COMPLETELY HEALTHY Howard is NOT the player he was in 07-09. People keep hoping for the Howard glory days. They are never coming back. Ever. Even if he’s healthy.
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My original post was in regards to the starting pitching not living up to the expectations the past two seasons. I am familiar with the lineup and BP issues.
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Absolutely. The Starting pitching has pretty terribly under performed the last two years. Imagine if Hamels and Halladay had average years? The Phillies might actually be .500
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Hamels’ ERA since his 3rd start of the season is somewhere around 3.15, so unless he had just a ridiculous year they still wouldn’t be much closer to .500.
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I think the outfield is good enough. Ruf, Revere, and Brown are young and more than adequate. For the money they provide excellent value with some upside.
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It looks better now. But, it looked pretty horrid going into this season. And even this season, Revere went down and right field has been downright awful.
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Just watching berdaina catch proves your point, how many misjudged fly balls from our center fielders this year, I know wells had one, mayberry at least five i saw, and revere a ton, if that balls is homerun, halladay is gone and we could lose the game, our defense in the outfield is horrible with brown whoever in center and ruf,
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And the stats back up the visual impressions.
Over the 2007 through 2011 seasons, the Phillies had the best fileding percentage in baseball. In 2012, they were 14th. This year? 26th. The defensive metrics, for what they are worth, show a similar yet steady decline over the past 4-5 season, and a real bottoming out this year.
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Fielding percentage Good Defense, some bad range in LF contributed, but a lot can be said for Rollins, Utley, Ruiz declines and loss of Werth and Feliz (not to say they should have kept him)
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They are, as the saying goes, a ‘work in progress’.
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Pitching did become more predominant over that run, with the set-up/closer extreme success in 2008 being the outlier which was not duplicated. Overall, the strongest team was 2011. I rank them 2011 > 2010 =2009 >2008 >2007. That was a very talentotheed 5-year span. Defense in 2013 a lot worse than any other season. The Youngs and an older core.
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I think you will see definitely see rupp up, 14 hrs to go with his receiving skills we could see a late bloomer such as we did with chooch
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Ok so I just thought this was awesome/funny. I’m having a conversation with my girlfriend about her hair (well I guess she was having it with me, I was just listening). So she says, “I know you want me to grow my hair out longer but I gotta do something about the back, I’m starting to look like Carlos Tocci.” Mmm come on now, I should prob just propose now huh? I mean what girlfriend could actually make a Carlos Tocci reference haha.
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Sounds like a keeper – as long as she did not ask about what to do with the hair ON her back
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HaHa you know what I meant
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Oh yah hoo, I get to see for the 20th time, what MiniMart CAN’T do. But you’re probably right, I think we’re going to see him again, but, why, I can’t for the life of me determine.
That said, I don’t think Cesar Hernandez gets the love he deserves on this site, perhaps including from me. If he can learn to play center field competently, I won’t bet he can’t, he could be an extremely interesting and versatile prospect. There’s only one thing Cesar has not yet shown he can do very well and that’s hit for power. If that comes along even a little bit, we could back end ourselves into one heck of a little player. We have to keep following him. He really is good.
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Comp him to Jose Altuve.
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Agreed but I do think he has enough power to at least keep OF’s honest. Unlike Revere he can get it out ocassionally and deep into the alleys…
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I like Hernandez but am just not sure where he fits. Even if he could play a respecable CF I would prefer the club to sign a bench OF with a bit more pop and, preferably, above average defense. As a 5th OF, back-up 2B? Perhaps, but I am not sure thta provides you as much as JMJ or a JMJ-like player.
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I’m not sure how much love you feel he deserves. I’ll bet he’s within top 15 of just about everybody’s top 30 list over the winter. He has a few problems. First, with Utley extended, 2B isn’t available for him until 2016 at the earliest. Secondly, he can’t play SS, which limits his flexibility as a utility guy. Likely why he is now learning SS. The Phillies simply do not seem to view him as a major league starter. In all likelihood, if he doesn’t get approved for a fourth option year, he’s on the Philly bench for 2014. If he does get approved, he’s likely at Allentown, trying to prove he can be at least adequate defensively at SS and 3B. His SB stats aren’t all they seem. He is the master of the delayed steal. Doubt he can pull that off or be a significant base thief in the bigs.
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What do people think of Severino Gonzalez? (Not as a September call-up, but a prospect). Is he in our Top 15? I don’t get to watch Clearwater, but, at 20, he seems to be holding his own there down.
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I’m not convinced in general many teams operate much differently when they win a WS in 08, go back to another in 09, lead the league in wins the following two years. You also need to consider very few GM’s operate with total autonomy and more often then we realize owners are sticking their noses in where they don’t belong.
Again there is plenty of evidence of this around the league not just here in Philly. And who are the scape goats? First the manager then the GM follows.
Funny because the vetting process is usually very thorough. I don’t imagine too many unqualified GM’s are hired. I do imagine that more often than not they don’t get to execute their plans to the fullest.
Managers are usually pretty safe. Guys like Charlie and Mike Scioscia will get other jobs if they want them. The GM on the other hand could never say publicly which moves are ownership driven and which moves were their own lest they don’t want to work again as a GM.
e.g. Jerry Dipoto
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Deivi Grullon continues to hit.
Until Tom Joseph gets healthy and becomes productive at the plate, Grullon very well could be the best catcher in the system by this time next year.
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To boot he doesn’t turn 18 until next year … does anyone have a defensive report on him? Is he a good receiver behind the plate, strong arm etc. ?
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Arm is plus to plus plus and accurate as well, needs to work on his aggression and instincts (especially trying to back pick guys off of first). He is a good receiver, still needs works, but there is every indication of at least a plus defender behind the plate with a chance to be special there
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Could be is the same as couldn’t be. I would say it’s premature to say that and even if he is it’s likely to be about the same as other prospects in a big bag of possibilities. His numbers against righties are way too low at this moment in time at the GCL level. I realize he has promise and is very young but you can’t anoint any prospect anything that is hitting .179 against righthanded pitchers yet.
It sounds decent and he has great numbers against lefties but I think we should just keep it in perspective until he hits right handers better.
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Thanks Matt. That sounds promising! It will be interesting to watch the career paths and development arcs of Tocci, Grullon and Pujols. If you had to make a call today which one of the three would you predict has the highest ceiling and why?
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Pujols has the highest ceiling, had someone put a 70 on the raw power. It is fueled by insane bat speed and not just leverage and strength. He could be an absolute monster hitter and the body should stay in RF. Tocci is next because the defensive profile and physical projection, followed by Grullon.
As for safety, Tocci is the safest of them because of the defensive profile and baseball instincts. Grullon’s defense makes him safer than Pujols as well as hi better contact abilities. Pujols has a lot of swing and miss that you would like to see cleaned up soon.
I have made my opinions on Tocci, but the other two are right on the border of the Top 10, I really like all three
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Again Thanks Matt. With Encarnacion on the horizon the LA pipeline will be intriguing to watch as the players develop or not. Hit or miss it’s good to see the Phils in the LA game so to speak.
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Matt…..International…..who has signed Wladimir Galindo?
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Rupp–admittedly a fav of mine–should come up when rosters are expanded. A valid candidate for the 25 in ’14. Defense and awakened power. Should be a lock.
Hernandez, Cesar–the highest BA among prospects in the upper reaches of the system, with stolen bases a’plenty, AND plenty of gappers to gain many 2bh & 3bh. My own preference was not to resign Utley and give the 2nd base to him. He has a lot more range than Chase and his ability to scoop ’em is superior. Of course, he was auditioned for CF in light of the FO certainty of Chase’s re-signing. At the very least, he could play CF in the winter leagues to learn and try to perfect skills there. Further, he would be an excellent replacement if/when Utley goes down temporarily or longer. Too valuable to be disregarded.
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Idk about the “plenty of gappers” for Hernandez. It seems like that’s the one thing holding him back from being a much more talked about prospect. Good thing he has the speed to turn some doubles into triples, because his actual number of XBH is not particularly good. Hopefully they’ll come more frequently as he gets older and adds strength.
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Oh, and: Tocci.there has to be people in the Phils FO that KNOW that Tocci’s skills will not fully develop without his gaining more weight. Think of him at 185 lbs. That should be the aim, and sooner rather than later. How about 12 lbs THIS winter and another 12 in ’14?
Wouldn’t we love to see this kid blossom into the player envisioned by his play so far. THAT should be on top of his agenda this off-season. Enough waiting and watching him exhaust-out halfway through the season. Eat well, Tocci, eat! It’s delicious.
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Yeah, they’ve all said that he needs to add weight/strength.
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You realize that naturally thin people can’t just eat a lot and gain 12 pounds of muscle in 4 months, right?
I’m sure he’ll gain 15-20 pounds over the course of several years, as most people do in their late teens/early 20s.
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My crystal ball says that the off-season conversation around where Tocci should be ranked within the list of Phillies prospects will generate the most conversation/debate (if not the most, then right near the top).
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I think you’re right. Franco should be fun too. Quinn and Watson will also generate a lot of debate I would think.
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“You realize that naturally thin people can’t just eat a lot and gain 12 pounds of muscle in 4 months, right?”
I’m normally not one to stir the pot, but I’m calling bullshit here.
All scientific research to date points to 2lbs of muscle (not including fat gains and water weight gains, both of which occur during muscle development, or you’re not doing it right) a month being a reasonable estimate for the human male. Some men can gain 3lbs others only 1 1/2, but all men can GAIN muscle mass. While genetics have some effect, the effect isn’t as significant as you might think. Some players are naturally muscular while others require a strict diet, sleeping schedule, and workout routine to achieve comparable musculature. But the bottom line is, him being thin isn’t the punch line, him being a human male is.
I would bet $100,000 that with the right workout routine, sleeping, and eating, 95% of males under the age of 40, and 99.9% of professional athletes under 40, are capable of gaining 8lbs (12 w/ increased water and fat) of muscle in 4 months.
The reason I know this is because at age 25 I was 6’0” 130lbs… pretty sure you’d call that naturally thin. Over the course of the following 6 months I gained 25lbs, of which approximately 15 was muscle, 10 was added water weight and fat. I know all of this because I utilized body fat calipers, the scale, and the over-all definition of my ABS (a very good approximation for body fat in men) in addition to regular consultation by a doctor and a nutritionist. And no, no steroids, just protein supplements and creatine (hence the gain in water weight). I’ve continued to build since then and come to a very healthy and happy 170lbs and 6.6% body fat. Pretty sure I’d qualify as an expert on “thin and gaining weight”.
I admit, I’m getting a little frustrated at this particular statement, it seems to come up once every few months so I apologize if I’m taking out my angst on you.
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Good for you! Out of curiosity, while you were putting on muscle and other mass, how many hours a week did you do weight lifting? Just wondering how much time in the gym it takes to put on muscle like that.
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Personally, about 2 1/2 to 3 hours. Doesn’t sound like much does it? The key to weight lifting to gain (as opposed to lose) is everything is about maximum effort. As in, your working sets (not warm ups) should be of a sufficient weight that you do 3 sets of 5 (could also be 4 or 6 depending on what your objective is) for most exercises and couldn’t do the 6th rep in each set even if you wanted to. It’s the whole concept of a “5 RM” (5 rep max).
So, while 3 hours doesn’t sound like much, I was sore pretty much around the clock because I was constantly pushing my body to new levels of strength.
If you’re looking for some really spectacular reading material (and the workout plan that goes with it), and for someone who isn’t an advanced lifter (as in a body builder or something), you should check out Mark Ripptoe’s workout routine called “starting strength”. I can email you the excel spread sheet if you can’t find it but it follows a very simple and very effective logic. Maximum effort, and increase weights every single time you go by either 5 or 10 lbs.
The above said, the other 2 aspects to gaining muscle mass are as important as the working out part. No alcohol, 9 hours of sleep at night, and naps during the day if possible. Eat your body weight in protein and make sure you’re consuming more calories overall then you’re burning. You can’t create something from nothing, there must be excess for your body to grow, even muscularly, this is also why some of your weight gain is inevitably fat. That said, if monitored closely, you can minimize the fat gain while maximizing the muscle gain. This is also why most men trying to gain muscle go through cycles (not related to steroid use though obviously a somewhat similiar concept.) You first gain as much weight as much weight (with hopefully high muscular composition) and then, when you’ve reached a weight 5-10lbs above your target, begin a cutting phase with extensive cardio and aerobic exercises.
The above is a whole life style change when you combine the 3 aspects of eating/sleeping/working out, most people don’t have the discipline to do it, but for those that do, the rewards are immense.
The other side of this is, once you’ve reached your target, maintenance is reallyyyyyy easy, muscle doesn’t just “fall off” your body very quickly at my age (I’m 32). I watch my weight carefully, when i’m not working out I don’t gain fat (hence being naturally thin), but I do lose about 3-5lbs a year in muscle if I don’t go to the gym at ALL. So… every year or two, I go back on a weight gaining program, put on any weight and strength I lost over 5-6 weeks, and go back to my normal, healthy and active life style.
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I just realized, when I said your body weight in protein I meant in GRAMS lol…
So… if you weigh 170lbs you should consume 170 grams of protein! (not 170 lbs haha)
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This is extremely helpful – I’m going to cut and paste this into a permanent document. I have different issues than you do (older, put on weight easily, in good cardio condition, but trying to lose weight while gaining muscle at the same time) but this is incredibly useful. Thank you again.
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shame. I love to watch harvey pitch and now he might need tommy john. shame.
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I hate to see a potential great pitcher be injured but as a Phillies fan, I won’t cry about not facing him next year (was that a double negative?).
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Is it too early to get excited about Asche? I know we’re still in SSS territory, but his MLB trajectory is now matching his MILB record. Aside from numbers, my eyes have been opened by his surprising speed and his capability for fairly spectacular defensive plays. He’d been slotted into the (racist) mold of the (white) hard-worker, but so far the most pleasant surprise has been his athleticism. Franco would have to hit like Miguel Cabrera to displace Asche. And he might! But, with each passing series, it looks like we don’t have a need at 3B.
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Well I like Asche, and am not concerned at all about his slow start, but it IS a slow start. If this is all there is, there’s nothing to get excited about.
But I think that he will improve, as he did after getting off top slow starts in AA and AAA.
Don’t at all understand where you get “his MLB trajectory is now matching his MILB record.”
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Well, if you consider that he started 1 for 19 in the bigs, he’s done fairly well since then.
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Well, sure, “fairly well.” And again, I’m not worried. I just thought it was odd that someone pointed to his major league experience to date as a positive reason to get excited. There are reasons to get excited, that just doesn’t seem to be one of them.,
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Wow! Asche looking like a FAR better 3rd baseman than its recent main occupant. His start at each level he so quickly climbed was hindered by adjustment which, when done, brought his offense up to gain another level. Along the way, he developed more HR power along with a pleasurable higher BA.
Noticing his last several games (about 10–yes,SSS):he has become an rbi producer along with a rising BA…as we should have expected, given his history.
When he began to have (unexpected) success at the plate, the complaint was that he didn’t show any power, and that he lagged in fielding the 3rd base position. If true at that time, he has progressively since answered those plaints.
The only preference i’ve had is that I wish he hit right-handed. We can live with that certainly in the longer term when we add Ruf and Franco (1st base) to the lineup.
This writer has been (overly?) enthusiastic about him since about halfway through his first full pro season. Right now I believe that he will in 3 years time be the face of this team and their leader. Many in the org have said that he is an Utley-type guy. THAT is a high compliment, isn’t it? With his alleged excellent work ethic, I believe that he will also be a NL All-Star in 3 years.
Those who have been reluctant to credit him as much as several others have done (including myself) need to realize just how good he is and he is a gift to the org and us’n fans who will now have a fresh new fine exciting player to watch and enjoy for the next 10 years in Philly…
Leap upon me if you will. But I and others here have long recognized what he could and will bring to this team.
Jump on if you will.
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no one will leap on you, you have real passion and your showing it, nothing wrong with that imo.will he be a utley type is a great complment if he does, not many like chase, runs out ever pitch, gets the most out of his talent, a real pro, shame rollins doesnt do the same.
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I’m not going to leap on you Art – but did you read what I wrote? Did you read what I responded to? I doubt it because your response had zero relationship to it.
I think Asche will hit significantly better than .253/.303/.422. I think he will be a solid major league regular; and a cost controlled solid major league regular has a TON of value. But if he doesn’t hit better than that, he won’t be a regular for long. Do you disagree with that?
He’s gotten off to a slow start, and THAT’S okay.I THINK HE WILL IMPROVE. He is already headed in the right direction. But IT IS A SLOW START.
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Why do you believe that I was responding to you? You know there really are quite a few other people who post here. In fact, a poster above yours was talking about Asche. My commentary was a response to HIS comment and query.
Are you self-centered enough to believe that YOU are the only poster worth responding to? Again, check your ego at the door and grow up!
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In fairness to Larry you did reply to his comment. What else is he supposed to think?
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Um, Art … you know how threads work? You (literally) responded to my comment. Its now apparent that that was an accident,that you MEANT to respond to his comment .. but you didn’t.
Here’s where I take the high road and don’t comment further, despite your inappropriate nastiness directed at me.
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Asche has hit in 9 of his last 10 games.. In those 10 games he has hit .324 with 7rbi .. Lets get past his horrid first few games, he’s been playing better and is currently en fuego. Lets hope it continues, because as of now he’s looking like a player to be excited for in 2014.
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I think Asche will be a solid first baseman for the Phillies for a long time. Given their track record over the past 10 years he does not have to be an All-Star to be considered a success.
If he can be a solid player than I am happy with the return. We don’t need power hitters or superstars at every position. Every team needs a couple of blue collar starters that bring their lunch bucket to work everyday and outwork others. That sort of work ethic can be infectious to a club.
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Urbanator says….’I think Asche will be a solid first baseman for the Phillies for a long time’, I assume that is a freudian slip, thinking of Ryan Howard, and you meant third baseman
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was someone of the point that he has started slow whenever he jumped a level?
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Am i the only one mad that the phillies are once again telling philly sports teams favorite joke? “Are we officially out of the playoffs? Great! Lets win games!”
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I’m trying to hold out hope that their recent winning ways won’t continue all the way to a 79-83 record or something, but that’s what I’m smelling.
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they’re no longer protected in the draft
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I checked earlier today, and the Phillies would now hold the 12 draft spot. I believe they were at 6 roughy 2 weeks ago.
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The change correlates to the change in Managers. It seems to happen that way alot. New manager, new approach, vets get read the riot act, kids get to play and usually they are told to just go have fun. The Charlie approach was to let the vets play and be who they’ll be. Ryne’s approach is play hard or GET OFF MY TEAM.
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This is why I really believe is ryan is the manager next year, jimmy rollins is gone, he wont stand for his lack of hustle.even in the field that play the other night ,when he didnt even hustle to try to get campana at the plate, was awful
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They are like the eagles winning when it means nothing, losing out on oj, and plunkett when we had the chance to get them, or sixers losing out to san antonio for duncan, we keep doing it winning meanless games, to screw up our chances to get better picks, hopefully the sixers will keep the cource and stay bad for better choices next draft, the phillies should be playing the rookies all through september like herdanez, in cf, and galvis at short, using morgan out of the pen and maybe give him one or two starts. Will crawford go to fall ball? I think there is a outside chance he is sent to clearwater , he might be a special player, but too early to tell.
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um, like the Eagles except they recently won a championship? I get your point when it comes to the sixers, but to say they win games only when it doens’t matter? They’ve played better than last two years after they’ve been out of it, but again, two World Series appearances and 1 win in the last 5 years?
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I think you should always worry when a bad team wins at the end of the season. Guys play hard then to impress a potential new GM and coach for next season. Never a good sign.
Like the Flyers last year, they were hit by injuries but played well at two times during the season; right before the trade deadline and at the end of the season.
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I am so amaze at the dodgers payroll. do you pay dollar for dollar over a certain amount, they could approach 255 million next year easy,. kershaw has to get a least a 15 million raise, and they are trying to resign ramirez, and these brings me to our phillies, they can go after a outfielderr and pitcher and catcher its all about if they want to go over the amount and pay the tax. dont we deserve for them to go out and pay what it takes to get us back, into the pennant race.
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Tell us who makes sense? What FA’s are worth an overpay or possibly giving up a 1st round pick for? Say if we end up with the 12th pick this year…
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Omar Infante would not cost us the pick. He a jack-of-all-trades.
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Nice player but not the answer. I think our Infield is pretty well set. Roccum’s question however was about spending $ and with his genie in a bottle you snap your fingers and the Free Agents to spend money on just appear out of no where.
This isn’t going to be the year to spend FA dollars. Now if you wanted to make a few moves that bring back salary that might be the way to go.
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I don’t think any are worth a 1st round pick. I’d prefer the FA action to include the BP and remaking the bench
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Rupp should be the 3rd C. Start trimming that 40man roster now.
Please say no to Martinez.
Please play Hernandez at SS.
Surprised that Susdorf did not get the callup over Orr. I at least think Susdorf could be a pinch hitter in the majors. I like Orr in general and about 1000000000 times better than Martinez but his career is already played out.
I’d actually like to see Castro given a shot at CF, though not a bad idea to see what Bernadina could do.
Why not call up the pitchers (at least the ones they figure to keep on 40man this off-season).
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I think Susdorf should get the call also for the same reason you’ve said. However, Cesar can’t play SS, not the arm.
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What about a guy like castro? Is going to get a taste? I mean he was having a decent year until the hand injury set him back. Hopefully he finally gets a chance.
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PROSPECT ALERT
Keep your eyes on Mike Nesseth. I went back and watched his 4 inning, one hit performance last night on the MILBTV tape archives. I now understand the Halladay comparisons we’ve been hearing about for years. Nesseth is tall, strong and rangy like Halladay (he looks like his little brother) and his fastball moves downward (he throws a 2 seamer and 4 seamer) and through the zone. He throws consistently hard – 92-94 (LHV gun is 1-2 MPH slow – I added 1 mph to the readings on TV) and has a nice curveball that he located well last night and which missed some bats. He maintained his velocity quite well. He showed surprisingly good composure on the mound.
It will be interesting to see if he has earned another 4-5 inning start. If I’m the Phillies, I send this kid to the AFL with instructions to make him a starter and see how it goes.
Nesseth has a ton of potential and it could be as a starter. If the Phils re-sign Halladay, I put Nesseth’s locker right next to his.
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Do you think turning 26-years old in April will affect his status or career progression?
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It definitely affects his status. He has a much shorter lead time to establish himself. He also needs to develop an effective third pitch because, right now, he just throws the two fastballs and the curve. A cutter might be the best addition to his repertoire.
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Then again, he could be the next ‘rich-man’ Tyler Cloyd.
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OK I’m on board but a little skeptical with the K rate. I am big on WHIP also and tend to look for a sub 1.20 to tell me if a pitcher can have sustained success in the MLB.
What does he use to get left handed hitters out if you know?
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2-seamer breaks away from lefties – so pitch thrown over the middle of the plate breaks to the outter edge or outside. Curve is an up and down pitch – works well for righties and lefites.
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At some point, he could be another 5th in the rotation.
The Phillies do stockpile a boat load of 5ths these days.
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His ceiling is definitely higher than that – at least a #4, but the delta between his ceiling and his floor is much larger than, for example, a guy like Jon Pettibone.
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Yes, agree his ceiling is at least a 4th, but at his age, he will need to debut next summer sometime, when the starting arms are tired/DLd. Then he will be competing against the Martins, Morgans (?), Pettibones, Cloyds and dare say David Buchanan. And if Roy is back, it pushes KK down one more rung in the rotation.
Hey, wish the guy luck and hope it comes about.
However, I would think twice before betting your house on your latest prediction.
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I’m not predicting anything whatsoever for Nesseth. I just said we should keep an eye on him. He might end up being a very functional 7th or 8th inning reliever and that would be fine too.
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Thanks for the discussion. I learned more about Nesseth in these few comments than I learned in his entire professional career.
Good call on him for the AFL!
The Phillies had Kyle Simon go to starter in the AFL. I figure they do the same with Nesseth. Simon got rocked. How well Nesseth does will likely determine if he gets a 40man spot.
Not sure how desirable Nesseth will be to other teams in Rule 5. Every team has fungible relievers who could turn into something. Given that Nesseth does not have 95plus velocity nor a wipeout breaking ball, I’d risk losing him in Rule 5 to see how he does next year. His low K rate is large red flag for me.
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I hate to say but looking ahead at the schedule I have the Phillies going 17-14 in their last 31. If my math is correct after last night we hold the 13th pick. That is going to be a really good player and probably not one worth losing for any of this years FA class.
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Though Free Agency is not the best way to build a team and you will overypay in almost every case, it is the fastest and the Phillies do have payroll to spend.
I’d go after a stud pitcher. Garza will be a big target since he is not tied to a draft pick.
Also, get two bullpen guys. I like Frasor for one. Higher risk guys is fine for the other. Since most of the young guys have options they could start in the minors if opening 2014 is Papelbon, Frasor, Bastardo, Adams, New Guy, Diekman, DeFratus, Savery.
Interesting decision coming for Halladay. Do Phillies given him $14M qualifying offer? That is an overpay, possibly by $7M but it would only be for one year and it may keep him in Philly since some teams will not be willing to pay him AND give up a draft pick. Of course Halladay could sign for pennies to go to a better team who’d have no issue with draft pick loss at the right price.
For position players, I’d keep Ruiz and sign Corey Hart. That might leave Ruf in the minors again but I have faith in Hart or Howard getting hurt. Or Mayberry gets traded with Hernandez the backup CF and Ruf as the 4th OF.
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I can see the Phillies QOing Halladay, and a team like the Rangers and/or Sox, ossibly even the Orioles or Dodgers, signing him, and absorbing the loss of the draft pick since it is in the lowest end of the first round.
I do not see any teams but those who feel they are close to getting the ring wanting to sign him.
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The Phillies have a $20M club option on Halladay which I’m sure they decline. In doing that can you turn around and QO a player for which you decline?
The way the Phillies operate I don’t see them doing that to a player of Doc’s ilk. It would be more likely they let him walk free and clear or just make him a 1 yr offer around $8-$12M with incentives.
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I’m not too concerned about signing a big name player and losing a draft pick because who would they sign? Are not all the positions pretty solidified right now? Asche, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Brown, Revere, Ruf? The biggest question mark is catcher, but McCann doesn’t fit because he’s a lefty with injury problems and doubtful the Sox will let Saltamacchia walk. I can’t see them giving a big contract to another pitcher with the money they already have invested in Lee and Hamels. I think you’ll see trades or patchwork signings.
Am I missing something? Who is the free agent that they have a spot for and solves many of their problems?
I’m a little more optimistic about next year than I think many on this sight. I think Ruf can hit 25-30 homers, and while the average might not be high, he does walk alot. I think a full season of Revere show him playing at the form he exhibited before he got injured. I don’t think Brown will regress and maybe will get a little better. Asche will take his lumps but that’s okay. Rollins can’t be much worse. Utley I think will hit for a higher average and Howard can’t be much worse. I see Ruiz back on a 1 or 2 year deal and I think offensively he sits somewhere in between where he started this season and where he currently sits. The bullpen will get better. Diekman and De Fratus show promise. Adams and Bastardo are solid, and while I don’t like Papelbon, he’s still a good closer. At this point, I just don’t see a whole lot of spots up for grabs.
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I agree. There are no FA players that would cost a pick that I would want.
I will add this one caveat though. IF the Phils get a very good trade offer for Lee in the offseason you may need to look at the FA pitching market. But you would have to get a massive offer for Lee considering you would also be losing your pick via the FA signing.
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Choo or Ellsbury would be a big upgrade to this lineup, I find it very unfortunate that winning these utterly meaningless games is going to put us in a position where if we would like to add a player of the caliber of those two we lose our pick. Everyone can rationalize it now and say they think it’s not a big deal this team is costing itself draft position and pick protection, but many were singing the opposite tune a couple weeks ago.
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Phillies have to keep their draft pick.
Not sure what Phillies should do with Revere. His bat is exactly what should be expected. Good avg, poor OPS, His CF defense is average at best so far and he is not a huge base stealer.
That probably leaves him as a below average starter, so the question is will he be a useful backup? Can he play well in limited time?
Ellsbury/Choo, Utley, Brown, Ruf/Hart, Howard, Rollins, Asche, Ruiz is still very lefty heavy at the top.
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I think I’d stay away from Ellsbury. He likely going to get massive contracts that will take them into their mid to late 30s and is the type of player who will decline rapidly since so much of his game (offensively and defensively) is predicated on speed. I am not sure we would want to add a nother LH hitter to the top of the lineup either.
Choo interests me a little. again, he’s LH, but will probably come much cheaper. The question is how much cheaper? The FA market for OF is poor and think someone (Cubs?) will massively overpay for him.
Best to sit tight on the big FAs this year, which is why I am not concered about where the club finished in the standings. Focus on the BP and bench this offseason.
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The FA market as a whole is poor. If the FO gives up their first rounder for any of the slop out there, they are more clueless than anyone thought.
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Maybe we can do a phillies top ten draft picks this winter to pass the time, see who gets the most right, on first ten picks. just for bragging rights,
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It would be nice to have an andyb summary of the DSL and VSL guys. Who are the actual prospects who did well? Who are the prospects who didn’t do well? Which guys emerged as dark horses who may come to the states in 2014, but weren’t regarded as prospects going into 2013?
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After the night Victorino had last night, I’m waiting for the mouthbreathers to come on here and say how much of a mistake it was to get rid of him.
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One big night or one hot streak isnt a reason to keep someone. Shane was not worth the money that he got IMO, extremely impatient hitter, popped up a lot due to swinging at high junk, power dropped, speed started declining.
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