End of Minor League Season Mailbag – Question Request

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Only a week or so left in the minor league regular season, so it is time for another set of questions and answers. Like always I will take questions here, on Twitter, and by email. I also encourage you to direct questions at gregg (who has seen many more games than me this year) or at Brad (who is much funnier than I am and headline writer extradornaire).

Questions don’t have to be limited to the Phillies minor league system (majors, minors, life, beer, etc), but keep them tasteful.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

95 thoughts on “End of Minor League Season Mailbag – Question Request”

  2. What was the deal with Franklyn Vargas? I thought he was a guy with some upside. He had a nice debut last year, and then spent this year pitching less, at the same level, in a smaller role, and doing worse.

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  3. What do people think of Severino Gonzalez? (Not as a September call-up, but a prospect). Is he in our Top 15? I don’t get to watch Clearwater, but, at 20, he seems to be holding his own there down.

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    1. I’d say he’s doing more than holding his own. He’s pitched his way into my top ten, and I’d expect him to start in Reading next season.

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      1. Yeah, I was running some numbers yesterday, and, by every metric, he really stood out.

        I haven’t seen him pitch–or read much about on this site, frankly–so I was a little skeptical.

        But, going on pure numbers, age and league, he’s looking very solid.

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  5. Will Louis Encarnacion make your top 20 prospects, before playing a proffesional game? He is the highest rated LA signee the Phillies have signed in years.

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    1. I will chime in with my 2 cents.

      I live in Atlanta. Beer is 7.25 for 16 ounces. So, certainly not cheap. But, they allow you to carry in non-alcohol drinks. More specifically: ‘Food, drinks (non-glass, non-aluminum, non-alcoholic) and soft-sided coolers (with the plastic liner removed) ARE permitted. Beverage containers may also be subject to inspection”. I have carried in a bag of food and 5+ powerades – pay $10 to park, and $15 per ticket for decent cheap seats – not too bad for a family of 4. Just don’t walk too far from the stadium, as the area can be rough.

      I have only been to 1 game at CBP, and seem to recall that no outside food or beverage is allowed (correct me if I am wrong).

      I also previously found the following. So, at least you are getting 21 ounces for your money.

      http://www.businessinsider.com/beer-prices-at-every-major-league-baseball-game-sports-chart-of-the-day-2013-4

      Yet another way in which minor league games area great option for families.

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      1. Outside food is permitted. Outside bottled non alcohol drinks can be brought in aslong as they are not opened already

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      2. Out side food permitted at Pac Bell slash AT@ T , Slash what ever it will be , SF Giants great stadium , and it is really good , and You can even go outside and come back in , most people go out behind centerfield on the Pier and smoke out and then come back in , and I get the 16oz Tecates at 8.75 a pop but those four more ounces are only 2 something and you get more beer so that sorts that

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    2. I haven’t been to CBP this year, but I seem to remember paying like $7.50 or $8 for a Guinness and not being totally disgusted with that for a big league game. Usually paying $5 for a pint at the bar anyway, so I just get to drink two instead of three.

      Slightly off-topic, I’m a big fan of the Blue Moon at Reading. It’s like $6.50 for 20 ounces I think? Great deal, and Blue Moon is stellar on a hot, summer day.

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  7. The unfolding tale on Joseph has gotten worse as the season progressed and it became obvious the Phillies were trying to minimize the concussion severity. What are the odds that he can remain at catcher. If not, is he any kind of prospect at all.

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  8. When will we learn whether or not Hernandez is granted a 4th option year, or more correctly, that the Phillies are granted one for him. Likely he’d prefer to be Rule 5 eligible to force his way into the bigs next year. How much has he been tried at SS and 3B and is it definite that he can’t play utility-guy D at those positions?

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  10. Drew Anderson has frame to fill out at 6’3 185lbs. He throws in low 90’s. He was born March 22 (same day as me) and as we know March Aries never back down. So what gives…why did they player last until 30th round?

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    1. If i were a handicapper i would set his plate appearances at ov/un 1. I will gladly take the under

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  12. If this site existed when Jimmy Rollins, Chase, or Ryan Howard were minor leaguers what would have been said about them? (Love this site, think we don’t have many elite prospects after trading so many the last 5 years. but not sure if we are too hard on them in general, or they just arent that good)

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    1. I don’t think we’re hard on guys….just being realistic considering the numbers of prospects that never never pan out, or highly rated prospects that don’t become stars, etc…

      For Howard the questions were whther he would make enough contact and whether he could be adequate a 1B. I think the Rollins questions were limited to whether he would ever hit enough to be more than a slick fielding speedster. But both players ended up as top 40 prospects so there weren’t HUGE questions about them. (In fact, the biggest question with Howard was what starting piticher should he be traded for considering he was blocked by Thome at the time).

      Utley was a little different. No one even remotely anticipated a border line hall of fame career from Utley and probably very few even pegged him as a potential future all-star. There were questions about his defense and whether he’d ever hit enough to be more than an average-above average 2B.

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  13. The Phillies are a team in transition. Give us your 2016 starting lineup (just ignore for now any potential free agents the team may sign).

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    1. It’s very unrealistic because the team will acquire free agents and make trades, but if we assume the current roster and minor league system are the only sources of talent, here goes:

      1. Revere or Hernandez – CF
      2. J.P. Crawford – SS
      3. Utley – 2B
      4. Domonic Brown – RF (where he belongs)
      5. Maikel Franco – 1B
      6. Darin Ruf – LF
      7. Cody Asche – 3B
      8. Rupp/Joseph – C
      9. Pitcher

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      1. I don’t think Crawford is up until September (although I’d love to be proven wrong).

        Revere CF
        Utley 2B
        Brown RF
        Franco 3B
        Ruf/Howard 1B
        Asche LF
        Rupp C
        Galvis SS

        Crawford gets a late-season callup.

        Hamels
        Biddle
        Morgan
        Pettibone
        Severino Gonzalez
        (MAG?)

        Watson gets a late-season callup.

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        1. Nice line-up. If there were no trades or major FA signings, it could easily go as you have predicted. It would be nice for the Phillies to have a manager who is bright enough to properly implement a platoon. I have no idea if Sandberg is that savvy.

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      2. I don’t think Utley will be starting in 2016. Let’s say Hernandez at 2B. I think Dugan is a starter. I’ll put Ruf at 1B and Dugan in LF. Also have to have Quinn on the team. I’ll put him in CF.

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        1. Good point on Quinn … I could see him potentially making the big club if he starts next season in Clearwater and transitions to CF.

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        2. Your line-up might be better, but I think the Phillies start Utley at second as long as they possibly can, perhaps well after it appears obvious that he should not longer be there.

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  14. Giles recent performance is very concerning. Hurt again? Franco reaches 30 and 100 tonight with two run homer to tie game in bottom of 9th, two outs. Dugan wins it with walk off bomb.

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  15. If you were forced to pick one team throughout minor league baseball to watch every game they played this year, which team would you have picked at the beginning of the season?

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    1. Williamsport 😉

      It’s a little cooler up there. Big old historic stadium, and all of the kids are prospects. By that I mean that once they spend some time at full season ball we know what we have and they just aren’t prospects. In short season ever kid is something to dream on.

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  16. It seems like there are a few positional minor leaguers who are given 80 grades for speed, power, arm, and defense.
    What players have an 80 hit tool? It seems to me that hitting is true elite skill (which is why hitters make the big bucks).
    If I had to pick an 80 hitter in last 30 years it’d be Wade Boggs.

    For pitchers I was wondering who has 80 command? Seems like 80 FB, 80 breaking balls exist but I do not see too many 80’s for control or command.
    Obviously Greg Maddux comes to mind for 80 command pitcher.

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      1. Franco minor league numbers? That’s an understatement. Between 1992 and 2007, Bonds only once saw his OPS dip below 1.000. Between 2001 and 2004 (yes, steroids, but these are still insane) he posted the following OPS: 1.379, 1.381, 1.278 and 1.422. That last one more than doubles that of Michael Young this season, and is 500 points higher than Franco’s current combined OPS between A and AA (which is by far his career best). Bonds OPS’ed 1.045 as a 42-year-old.

        I love Maikel Franco as a prospect, but the only way his name should be uttered in the same sentence is: Maikel Franco is expected to one day play in a league that was thoroughly dominated for nearly two decades by Barry Bonds.

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          1. A lot of people took PEDs in the late 90s and early 00s. It’s well-documented. Nobody hit like Bonds.

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            2. If one were to ignore all of the data plainly available comparing Bonds to Rafael Palmeiro, then yes, you’re absolutely correct.

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        2. See, this is why I keep getting sucked in. And it’s ironic, since I like Franco a lot as a prospect (I was saying positive things about him as a prospect years before his current boosters started posting about him).

          Even setting aside the apparently irrelevant fact that Bonds walked, as a major league player, almost six times as often as Franco in AA, he also hit HR at a much better rate, over almost 10,000 AB in the major leagues as opposed to 247 AA AB. Heck, our buddy Ruf hit HR at a much better rate just last year in AA.

          How can I put this without getting accused of negativity? Even setting aside the BBs, which MATTER, but some people won’t be convinced of that … what Franco is doing this season in AA is … very good, yes, but I think some people are exaggerating it just a tad. It’s not that uncommon in the greater scheme of things. It IS uncommon for a prospect of his age – Steven, for all our disagreements, is right to emphasize that aspect of his performance. But let’s not get carried away. I know you aren’t trying to say that Franco is going to be the next Bonds, bu the comparison is silly even on your own terms.

          You want something positive? His BB rate is up to 3.8%. Still extremely low, but encouraging!

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          1. Larry… dude they really get you on these posts don’t they? Regarding Franco, He looks like a .290/.335/.480 hitter if I had to guess for an OPS of .815… pretty much the same thing I’ve said for some time now. It’s possible he manages to put up 35 HR’s for a SLG of 500, but I don’t see much chance of him being a .900 OPS guy unless he gets his walk rate up to 8-9%. Larry, if I was you, I would be encouraged as in his last 88 PA’s (21 games) he’s got a walk rate of 7.95%… and if we’re being completely honest, his increased walk rate has coincided with the cooling of his bat. I don’t blame a hot hitter (and he was EXTREMELY hot) for swinging when the gettings good, but at the same time I also expect them to take the walk when it’s not and it seems Franco is doing just that… we’ll see how the remainder of the year plays out but at this point, it’s encouraging.

            As to the question above on an 80 hit tool… I will say one thing … Bonds has a career BABIP of only .285… Pretty insane for the best hitter since Babe… or maybe better, it’s definitely close.

            As to an 80 hit tool…I’m not sure Bonds was an 80 hit tool… but then again, that all depends on if you include the ability to walk in the hit tool. If you do, then he’s clearly an 80, if you don’t… well then he’s probably a 70. A better example would be Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Hornsby, etc….. they’d be an 80 hit tool. Or if you want more recent, any player with 1500 AB’s or more for their career and a .310 or better career batting average.

            The most obvious recent example would be Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs and Joe Mauer.

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            1. A cool site if you have not seen it: http://scouts.baseballhall.org/search

              It captures scouting reports that were turned in for players.

              Bonds – FYI – was listed as a 50, 60, 60, 70 in the 4 scouting reports from the 1980’s / 1990. I think those were all ‘then’ stats, not future projections.

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            2. correction – Bonds hit rating:

              1985 report: 50
              1988 report: 70 present / 70 future
              1990 report: 70/80 (not sure if this means 70 present, 80 future, or if this means he was a 70, borderline 80)
              1990 report 2: 60

              Utley has a report on him on the above link as well – it is from 2000, when he was in college. The scout put his future hit tool at 70.

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    4. 80 hit tool – last 40 years, in no particular order

      1. Rod Carew
      2. Tony Gwynn
      3. Wade Boggs
      4. Ichiro Suzuki
      5. Barry Bonds – Steroid Edition

      Very close – George Brett, Frank Thomas (early career), Albert Pujols (early to mid career), Miguel Cabrera (what can’t he do as a hitter?), Edgar Martinez, Paul Molitor

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      2. I don’t have the time right now to explicate this at length, but, depending upon how we define hit tool, as great as Bonds was, I would not say he had a 80 hit tool, pre-steroids or post. He had exceptional plate discipline & he had plus plus power BEFORE the PEDs, and plus plus power on … well, on steroids … after. Aside from that, he has plus contact ability, but not elite contact ability. He had a great power stroke, but he was not a line drive machine by any stretch of the imagination, and when I think “hit tool” that’s what I think of (in addition to contact rate.) Otherwise you are conflating the hit tool and the power tool.

        Unless plate discipline is part of the hit tool, he had (I would say) maybe a 60 hit tool, 70 at best. He had 80 power, 60 speed (or even 70) in his younger days, and 80 plate discipline (yes, not a traditional “tool.”)

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        2. Pitch recognition and plate discipline should most definitely be part of the hit tool, but I don’t think it is. Really, it is important enough that it should be a tool in its own right. It may be the most essential tool, and it really is a tool as some guys don’t have and can’t learn pitch recognition, while some have it from the start. It probably is a function of eye-brain interaction.

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          1. Great point.
            I agree that pitch recognition should be the most critical position player tool/skill. I am no scout so I have no idea how to evaluate it but imagine how good hitters are when they ‘know’ what pitch is coming.
            Maybe this site can start ranking 6-tool players!

            Maybe this skill is what makes players like Marco Scutaro able to stay in the majors.

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  18. Where does Franco finish in the Minor League Player of the Year (non pitchers) voting? 6th? Sano, Baez, Buxton, Springer, Boegarts, Franco

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  19. By the way, I’ve made two predictions for Asche – one early last year and the other early this year. Last year, when he was in Clearwater, I said Asche would appear in the majors this year. Done. This year, I predicted he will become at least an above average regular. Having seen him play for about a month now, I fairly convinced that he will reach at least this status. As a fielder, he has the instincts, reflexes, arm and work ethic to be at least above average and might even border on elite. It will take a few years for him to become consistent and smooth, but the tools and desire are there. As a runner, he’s pretty fast and has good instincts – a bit like Utley (actually, he’s a bit like Utley in a lot of flattering ways). As a hitter, he’s a delight. He has a very quiet and short stroke and has okay power now and should develop more as he grows older and learns how to sit on pitches. He also has a solid approach at the plate – far better than, for example, Rollins or Howard. And, man, he really plays the game the right way. What a tremendous 4th round pick.

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    1. His early problem was swinging at off speed pitches that went out of the strike zone. He’s improving already at taking those pitches. He’s hitting a very high percent of line drives when he swings at strikes. He’ll continue to improve his hitting technique, the rest of his game is outstanding. He’ll be around for awhile… He’s taking fly balls every day too.

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      1. LOL!!! I deserved that. I also predicted Rosenberg would be lights out. So, like anyone, I miss quite a bit too.

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      1. See above. I miss all the time. Rosenberg and Mathieson are some famouns missed predictions. But I hit on my share too. Unlike many on this site, however, I don’t take any of this too seriously. Have a great day!!!

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        1. I just don’t know how you pat yourself on the back and type at the same time. Quite the talent.

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          1. Dude, how much more self-deprecating do you want me to be? I said I’m wrong all the time, and sometimes I’m right. At least a step to the plate and use a handle so people can identify me. Better to pat oneself on the back than to knife another in the back, but each to his own.

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            1. Predictions are what make this site fun. Keep doing it.
              Plus it generates some good (and many bad) discussions.

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    5. Asche’s progress is something we can all agree on and I hope that the scout who tracked him gets a nice bonus!

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  20. Will you look into a new layout design in the offseason? the indents for replies are too dramatic. it makes it really hard to read on desktop and unusable in mobile.

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  21. I couldn’t agree more. He reminds me a little of Utley with the short swing, which should get him 15-20 home runs. His defense is what really stands out. I think when he first got called up and maybe tried to hard but no has settled in. Good footwork and range. I know there has been talk about moving him for Franco but I like Asche a lot at third. I haven’t seen Franco but hearing from people it’s split if he can stay at third. From what I’ve seen from him is someone who will do nothing flashy but do all the right things.

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  22. You’ve been a pretty big Ruf skeptic in the past. Has your opinion changed based on his performance since his promotion? If he were eligible, where would you rank him among our prospects right now?

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  23. Could someone provide a detailed definition of “polish” and how it can be measured, whether it be statistically or by sight? The term seems like it is thrown about with regard to anyone nearing the big leagues, and I was hoping to get a formal definition of how you can differentiate polish from other forms of growth. Thanks.

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    2. That’s not fair guys, come on… play nice. Polish from a dictionary perspective is not the same as from a baseball perspective (though obviously very similar)

      When I say a polished player at the minor league level, what I mean is “a player who has extremely good baseball fundamentals in comparison to his peers”

      So for example (remember, everything is comparable to players his age/level):

      1. An outfielder who takes good routes to fly balls
      2. A pitcher who knows when to use his pitches to get the most value out of them.
      3. A pitcher who has a very smooth delivery
      4. A hitter with a very “refined” swing
      5. A baserunner who doesn’t frequently get picked off or caught stealing. (aka knowing your limits).

      I could go on and on, but the other thing to note: notice I didn’t say “MLB ready” they aren’t the same thing.

      That’s my take anyway.

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  24. Matt I don’t like this thread it isn’t really a mail bag. You should only take questions via email maybe and answer the ones you find interesting then do a post called the mail bag.

    This format is all over the place and easily hi-jacked. my 35 cents

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    1. I have found that no one asks me questions by email and that only a select few answer it on Twitter. I will actually complete a post in the coming days with my answers rather than answer here. Any thread here ends up easily hijacked,

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  25. Dont know if anyone saw it yet phillies are sending dugan, altheer, giles nesseth, to arizona fall league. they were denied permission to send franco by dominican team.also i think they are sending wright,

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  26. I doubt a LA winter league team wants a guy as physically underdeveloped as Tocci, so what does he do this winter? I guess the same applies to Pujols in terms of barely having his feet wet in organized BB. As a catcher, I guess an LA team might have interest in Grullon.

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    1. Tocci, Grullon, and Pujols all go home and spend time with their families. There is a chance they have a diet and workout plan but all three are 18 and under having spent 6 months away from home, it is time for them to go home and be teenagers for a little bit. There is little likelihood that any of them play any organized ball this winter. Their bodies need time to recover and strengthen.

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  27. Are the Phillies involved in any other international players of note. I’ve read about Encarnacion but the still have some $$ to spend. And is it safe to assume the deal with the Cuban Pitcher is dead.

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    1. No, the deal for the Cuban pitcher is not dead, maybe the Phillies found something in his physical and want to rework the contract. There is protective language for the Phillies to keep negotiating with MAG according to Ken Rosenthal’s Full Count video on foxsports@msn.

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  28. What ever happen to the cuban pitcher???. If the phillies backed out, some other team would have step in, something is strange, maybe age problem. or injury, really weird imo

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  29. What scouting bucket does pitch recognition get ranked as a tool/skill?
    Similarly related, would someone with great plate discipline have a higher ‘hit tool’ rating?
    (hijacked thread earlier with prior question/comments but this question was kind of the end result)

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  30. What should the PHillies do with Tommy Joseph?
    He’s played 1B but I’d try him at 3B since he has a good arm. I doubt his bat will be enough for either spot. Also 3B is stacked with Asche and Franco.

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