Box Score Recap – 8/24/2013

Box Score Recap

Maikel Franco and Kelly Dugan both went deep for Reading. JC Ramirez has been pretty good since going back to AAA. Too many walks for Perci Garner tonight – 6 over 4.1 IP. A nice start from Hoby Milner saved by Dan Child after Ken Giles failed to get it done for the third time in his last five outings. JP Crawford on base twice. He’s had a successful first week at Lakewood. Ditto Mark Leiter – 8H 2BB and 11K in 12 scoreless IP over his first 2 appearances.

In the short-season leagues, Julio Reyes threw six no-hit innings for WIL – Mark Meadors couldn’t keep the no-hitter, or the shutout, alive, and ultimately took the loss. He’d had his fill of shared no-hitters for the week, I guess. And a good line from 2013 pick Tyler Viza – 3H, 1BB, 6K in 5 scoreless IP for the GCL club. He’s had a good time of it thus far, with a (SSS Warning) WHIP at 1.00 and a nice walk rate around 2.8/9IP.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130824

8-24-2013

64 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 8/24/2013”

  1. Milner continues to impress, Cesar back to 2nd, Franco at 1B for remaining 9 games, and please please release Casper.

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  2. Key here was a bunch of nice pitching performances from starters. Hoby Milner is still going. He had 2 lousy outings about a month ago. there was som talk that because he was not well built guy that he was tuckering out. But he seems to have found his 2nd wind. No runs given up in his last 13 innings. He’s given up 4 in his last 27 innings. In 4 of his last 10 games, he’s given up zero runs. In 2 others he gave up 1 run (one was a 3 inning stint). If I were to give Hoby something to work on in the offseason, it would be a heavy duty conditioing program. Put some weight on, not to the detriment of his pitching. Put some muscle on so you can get stronger as the outing goes on. He has the pedigree since his father got a cup of coffee in the majors (as a catcher). Interestingly, Brian Milner, the father, played for the Blue Jays the year he was drafted. It was 1978 and the Blue Jays were pathetic in their second season.

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    1. I’m not totally sure what to make of Milner. He has games where he K’s guys in bunches, and then has stretches where everything is in play. His K rate has dropped a lot since early June, so that could be due to tiring out.

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      1. What is interesting though is that he’s pretty much held his K rate intact from Lakewood last year and is walking guys less.

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  3. Kenny GIles in his last two appearances: 1 IP, 2 H, 6 BB, 1 K, 4 ER. Yikes.

    Franco to 1B is … interesting. I really can’t imagine what benefit there is to moving him off 3B for the rest of the season.

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      1. Moving Maikel Franco off third to accommodate Harold Martinez is like replacing Stephen Hawking with Bill Nye the Science Guy.

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    2. I’m under the impression the front office intends to keep Ruf in RF and Asche at 3B, so they to move Franco to 1B and lose the value of his bat..

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      1. Flexibility is a very good thing. Franco having the ability to slide over and play 1B is a good thing. They know he can play 3rd. Asche meanwhile is reportedly taking fly balls every day too to help increase his flexibility but you just can’t move around in the majors (Ruf not withstanding…). Franco will not get called up in Sep. AA guys rarely do.

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      2. I don’t understand positonal value. For instance in the OF when the angels moved Trout to LF because of Bourjas, they move Trout to LF even though he likes playing CF and has a better arm, just because of positional value. That logic makes no sense to me, IMO you want to put your best 8 guys into lineup.

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        1. The positional adjustments are a necessary component because defensive metrics calculate a player’s performance relative to his peers at that position, but an average defensive shortstop is almost certainly a superior defender to an average defensive second baseman. Same for center fielders versus corner guys, and third baseman versus first baseman. The positional adjustment is in the calculation in order to reward players for their ability to defend the more important spots on the field. The scale of the position adjustments, per 162 games played:

          Catcher: +12.5 runs
          First Base: -12.5 runs
          Second Base: +2.5 runs
          Third Base: +2.5 runs
          Shortstop: +7.5 runs
          Left Field: -7.5 runs
          Center Field: +2.5 runs
          Right Field: -7.5 runs
          Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

          In other words, catchers get the most defensive credit of any position, then SS, then CF/2B/3B, then LF/RF, then 1B, then DH. This mostly follows the traditional defensive spectrum first popularized by Bill James, though it slightly eschews the idea of “up the middle” defenders by equating third baseman and second baseman as equally challenging defensive positions

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          1. Offensive performance doesn’t always follow this same scale.
            Last year, for instance, the average center fielder hit .265/.330/.418, while the average left fielder hit .261/.326/.431. Meanwhile, catchers (.248/.318/.400) outhit both shortstops (.257/.310/.388) and second baseman (.257/.318/.383), while third baseman (.266/.327/.427) hit nearly as well as both corner outfield spots. For the three positions that are projected significantly better than the others, we essentially find evidence that their most recent offensive performance is significantly better than it has been historically, relative to their peers at least. However, this doesn’t necessarily answer the question. Does this mean that catchers, third baseman, and center fielders are just better hitters now than they used to be while also maintaining the same gap in defensive performance that has been seen in prior years — meaning that this is just a cyclical talent boom at those three spots — or are Major League teams redistributing their talent around the field in a way that is narrowing the gaps between positions both offensively and defensively?

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          2. Actually what I think PPIE was saying is he didn’t understand why the Angels put a weaker defensive CFer (Bourjos) in CF because he has a weaker bat than Mike Trout who is both superior offensively and defensively and then use the classic baseball justification that CFers are usually weaker hitters than corner OFers. If you’re going to have Bourjos and Trout in the lineup you might as well have Trout play the more premium defensive position since he’s better in CF than Bourjos.

            This is a similar argument I made on the site last off-season by some posters suggesting Rollins move to 3B for Galvis because Galvis is the weaker hitter. My point was that if both are in the lineup it doesn’t matter if the better hitter is playing 3B. The lineup is still the same and the only thing you’re hurting is the defense on the field.

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            3. That’s about right I was just using the Angles as an example because they were the only one that I could think of at the time. But the question originally stemmed from someone’s comment about playing Franco at first is a determent to his value.

              Which makes no sense to me because, IMO the problem with some of the advanced metrics are that they judge a player in a vacuum as opposed to the dynamic with the rest of the team. If it turns out that both Asche and Franco can be major league players I honestly don’t care which one of them plays third and which plays 1B or LF as long as both can fit in line up and be productive, it doesn’t matter to me. Especially considering that it isn’t like anyone is coming up through the minors that will steal a spot and no one is available on the FA market to fill the void.

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            4. It is a detriment to his value. That does not mean it is a detriment to team value. There is a difference. If the Phillies 8 starters next season are Brown, Revere, Ruf, Asche, Rollins, Utley, Hernandez, Ruiz, and assuming that Utley will have the same defensive skills as he has this season, then Utley as an individual has the greatest value at 2B. Assuming he is equally good (for the position compared to the rest of the league’s players at the respective positions he might play) his individual value goes down if he is moved to 1B. For the team as a whole, there is absolutely no change. If Hernandez plays 1B instead of Utley, his overall individual value would also decline, because, just as with Utley, his defensive contribution is worth less. It might make a difference to the player, because he wants to see his reported value as high as possible. If his bat makes him an All Star at 2B, SS, or CF but just a little above average at 1B, clearly he’d rather play at the highest defensive value position that he can play well. To move to 1B is essentially taking one for the team. On the other hand, Utley moving to 1B doesn’t help the team as a whole, unless Hernandez is a better defensive 2B than Utley or Utley is a far better defensive 1B than Hernandez, or playing 1B saves Utley’s knees. Otherwise, it is just a wash.

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            5. I really hesitate to dip my toes in here because this is the kind of concept which, if you don’t just grasp it intuitively, is not going to come easy. Not because it is complicated, but because it is simple. It’s an obvious fact that, all else equal, if you get a third baseman and a first baseman who hit equally well, the third baseman is more valuable. If you can’t understand why that is, I don’t know what to say to you (of course that’s not some modern stat idea, that’s how players have always been evaluated and properly so).

              It was allentown’s post that prompted me to post, because I think he confuses things and gets things (partially) wrong in what is otherwise a valiant attempt to explain the concept.

              So let me posit what I think the problem some people are having with this. What I think some people are missing is the long term and the fact that teams are not restricted to JUST using players they develop themselves. In the short term, it’s easy to say “pick the best 8 players.” But in the long run, that’s not how you develop championship teams. You develop championship teams by surrounding a few stars with a bunch of solid regulars. And Franco has a much better chance to be a star third baseman than a star first baseman. And even if he is a star first baseman, he will be a lesser star (unless he really does have negative defensive value at third base).

              Another way to look at it is that it is FAR easier to find a good hitting first baseman than a good hitting third baseman. By trade, development, or free agency. Now, you may say that we have a good hitting third baseman in Asche. Well maybe; I like Asche but let’s see him prove himself. But assume he does become a solid regular or better at third. If so, one of these guys is going to have a ton of trade value. In theory (and I recognize that theory does not always match reality), Asche will bring a first baseman who hits better than Asche does. That’s because teams (appropriately) value players the same way that those of us dismissing the move of Franco to first value players. As has been the case since … well, probably for more than 100 years.

              But enough. As I said, I suspect that people who don’t get this won’t get it. However, at the risk of feeding my reputation for arrogance, this is not something of even minimal controversy, and is not some SABR versus traditional evaluation issue. Every scout, development guy, front office guy, manager, coach, you name it,, agrees with this concept.

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    5. Maybe they want him to have a bit of versatility so he can get as many ABs in winter ball as possible. Don’t know, but not sure there’s harm in it. Doesn’t seem to me he needs the reps at 3b.

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      1. I think first base is the best place for him. Brown and Ruf appear to have the corner outfield spots locked down and Revere is not a perfect fit for CF, he is more than adequate. (I would like to see someone that walks more.)

        Franco is not going to play CF so unless you move Asche.

        The only logical spot for Franco is shortstop or first base.

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  4. I haven’t really thought out my top 30 yet, but I wonder if Andrew Anderson and Tyler Viza can do enough in SS to be legitimate top 30 candidates.

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    1. notably 2 years older but it seems Mark Leiter my belong in that group that bears watvhing too, with his strikeout totals to date.

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    2. I can see Rupp breaking on the scene, similar to how Ruf edged his way into the hearts of the Phillie faithful. And if his bat explodes any in the spring Ryno could very well take a chance on him bringing him north to Philly..

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  6. Amaro you did anyother great job in picking up Casper Wells. The man just keeps picking up stiffs, rather see anyone from the organization then wellls , he brings nothing to the table, mitchell, would have been better choice,and this man wants to take on risks fa signings, to turn them around, lmao.

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    1. Nothing wrong with trying out Wells and Bernadina. It cost them zilch to do this. It is not as if winning an extra game or two this season win them anything. They need to decide if there is anything they like in these guys. Vic didn’t become Vic overnight the day we took him in the Rule 5. This has nothing to do with the off-season turn-around FA signings. This is just picking through the rubbish tip, something a team out of the race and with its starting CF on the shelf has the luxury to do. Probably nothing comes of it, but a lot of toads need to be kissed to find the prince. The Phillies know about Mitchell. He has shown nothing to warrant putting him on the 40-man now. If Wells and Bernadina are flops and are cut, they are just keeping the seats warm for the minor leaguers who will be added to the 40-man. That will not include Mitchell.

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        1. I also agree, though Wells was a bit of a stretch. There are definitely some things to like about Bernadina, though.

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      2. Mitchell was just a name, i know he isnt anything but he is in the organization and would have given someone in the minors a chance over wells, wells isnt a vic type, he has had his chance and done nothing and is 28 years old. i understand you point but its just a hard to watch a guy like him play. bernadina i can see he fields and has speed, things wells doesnt have.

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        1. Mitchell isn’t even a good Minor League player. Amaro has no business trying bringing him up, over signing Wells or Bernadina.

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    2. Wells and Bernadina are nothing more than 4th or 5th OFs at this point. You want to see how they handle themselves in the clubhouse, how they prepare to be PHs, how they deal with not being starters. These are guys that could be just as valuable as Kevin Frandsen in the future.

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        1. If Bernadina hits a little bit more like last year, he could be worth having next year on a cheap deal. Not like he’s going to make bank in arbitration. Probably would make less than JMJ and offer basically the same skills, IMO.

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          1. Brown, Revere, Ruf, Free Agent OF (?), and then I guess Mayberry or Bernadina. I feel like the success of Ruf no matter the small sample will actually make the Phillies not want to go after a big money OFer. Seems like they’d rather spend on Catcher, Starting pitcher, and bullpen.

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            2. They have plenty of money to sign at least one if not 2 big name free agents if they want to pursue that option. It wouldn’t necessarily be a smart move but they have the capability to do it.

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            3. very confused by the comment. dont have money to sign??? the dodgers have something like 135 million and still have to sign kershaw, and fill out a roster, we have less committed than them, and have a minimum player now at third, right field not a lot to ruf, brown will get a raise but not a ton, cheap catcher, cheap center fielder, losing halladay money, and we are the fourth or fifth largest market, with a new ty deal, so why dont we have the money???

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            4. They had $159 million on opening day giving them the third highest payroll in the majors. Think about that for a moment.

              The Phillies have $119.5 million locked up between 7 guys.

              https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tSSu2Qy8G9pTSsguHAbeu-A&output=html

              The Dodgers do not care about the luxury tax but under the old CBA the Phillies were loathe to pay the luxury tax with a 90 win team so I doubt they open up the pocketbooks with a 90 loss team.

              Is this money well spent by Amaro?

              Ruf and Brown have locked up the corner OF spots. Revere is questionable but since he is under team control his salary will be of value versus what he brings to the team.

              If Asche is your 3B next year everyone else is locked up with the only opening being catcher.

              You have Hamels and Lee in the rotation with everyone else being a question mark.

              With $119.5 million already committed and knowing that the Phillies do not like to spend into the luxury tax territory, what do you do in terms of roster construction?

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            5. What I think is that, with those salary numbers, they could certainly sign one, possibly two, impact free agents, without going over the luxury tax threshold.. No one out there this year looks like 20 million plus AAV.

              “Could” is not the same as “should” or “will.”

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            6. The big question with this team is how do you improve the offense when they are virtually locked in to all 4 infielders and at least 2 of 3 outfielders. I would sign Nelson Cruz or Hunter Pence, and use Ruf as a 4th OF / 1B vs LHP, and the first guy to play every day at 1B or OF due to injury. I’d also sign Brian McCann to catch. This is of course assuming their pick is protected. Lineup would be:
              1 Revere CF
              2 Asche 3B
              3 Utley 2B
              4 Cruz LF
              5 Brown RF
              6 McCann C
              7 Howard / Ruf 1B
              8 Rollins SS
              Bench – Rupp, Ruf, Frandsen, Galvis, Bernardina

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            7. Omg 6 lefthanders, why in the world would they do that, do you see how bad they are against lefthand pitching?? this lineup would be a disaster,

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      2. They are both fringe OF who can ‘play’ CF.
        Reminds me of Schierholtz last season. SF wanted to dump him and Phillies got to see him for a few weeks. He was hurt and did not show much so they let him go in arb. I see same thing with these guys.
        Wells seems redundant to Mayberry but Bernadina might be able to be the lefty PH/5thOF in 2014 if he returns to 2012 form.

        Better than trying Gillies at this point. He still needs to figure out his swing and see where gets to next season.
        Hernandez in CF should be an option since Utley is now signed so Hernandez will not be the 2B full time next season. (I still would get him reps at SS to determine who bad he truly is there.)
        I’d like to see Castro called up but he’d be a stretch to put in CF.

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  7. The more and more I look at it, I see Cam Rupp catching in Philly next year. His age and maturity is just about right for what the Phillies look for in catchers, his defense is superb, and his power bat will play well at CBP. He is physically large but being a Longhorn hot summers should not affect him. I can see him being more then just the back-up, especially if Ruiz does not return.

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    1. Well here is the thing. I think the Phillies are prioritizing signing a starting Catcher whether it be Ruiz or McCann or whoever. That leaves a backup spot for Rupp. I think the organization is quite alright with Kratz in the backup role for now. So I don’t see a spot for Rupp unless Kratz falls out of favor or someone gets injured.

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      1. I agree that Kratz and Rupp are one-in-same at their backup role. However, it is not likely the Phillies will make run at McCann considering number of holes on that team. They will more likely resign Ruiz & keep Kratz as backeup. IF injury happens (highly likely) then Rupp gets the call up. BTW: I think philly fans will quickly embrace Rupp once they see his style.

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      2. They could QO Ruiz, then it will be his call. Not sure they will go for a multi-year deal with him, maybe two years max. And didn’t Fran Wren already say they are interested in keeping McCann as a lifetime Brave, however that is the normal thing to say. McCann is to the Braves now, as Chipper was in his hey day, he is the face of the franchise.

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        1. I didn’t say they were going to get McCann just that RAJ has mentioned catcher as a position they need to address this offseason which to me means he plans on signing a starter at the position or acquiring one through trade somehow. I think a small money deal on Ruiz like 2 yrs 5 mill is very possible.

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  8. I wouldnt mind a Rupp/ Kratz combo or Navarro or Soto/ kratz or Rupp combo…i think McCann remains a Brave

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  9. Dylan Cozen interesting prospect. His BABIP is .321 (identical for ’12 & ’13) tells us he hits the ball hard but also playing against inferior defense. With his avg in .260’s we can see that number trending lower. However, his Avg really isn’t the point…its his power potential. ISO is respectable .187 and he walks over 10% (for both years) is recipe for success. You can live with his 24% K rate if he is hitting for power. He is also second on the team with steals at 10. Should be one of top players to watch in 2014.

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      1. So over/under on when he surpasses LGJ’s HR output this year at Lakewood? I’ll put May 15th as the Over/Under point.

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