David Buchanan pitched well again. Struck out 7 in 6IP, while allowing just 1 R on 4H and 2BB. Maikel Franco and Kelly Dugan both went deep, as did Anthony Hewitt. As he winds down what is easily his best pro season at the plate, I’ll concede that Hewitt is probably a big leaguer somewhere down the line. He’s close to a 20/20 season right now, (16HR, 18SB), so it’s hard to see him not being an option in a injury replacement situation in 2014 and beyond, if he sticks around this organization. And after a very slow start, Jose Pujols suddenly has 6HR in the GCL, and reportedly missed a walk-off for his seventh by about 6 inches, (per @statsking). Should be lots of fun to watch that guy develop. Pujols, that is. Not Chris King.
And for Williamsport, Sam Hiciano hit his 7th HR of the year. That’s a pretty nice number for a guy who struggled with a wrist injury for a couple weeks early on. He’s striking out a little too much, (~24.5%), but it’s not over the top for a guy with power like he’s displaying, plus he’s walked some (~9%). His OPS sits above .800 at the moment, on a low BABIP of .250, so there’s even room to grow on batted balls. He’s 19, but he’s only 2 years into his pro career, after signing later than many DR guys, playing one year there, and skipping the GCL entirely. Very intriguing.
Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.
http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130822
Phuture Phillies 
Happy Birthday to Carlos Tocci, who turns 18 today. When I was 18, I was sitting in US history class, learning about how the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. Darn that Mussolini.
But, am I the only one who is hesitant / concerned about Tocci’s performance? I realize that he is just now 18, and is playing against a bunch of 19, 20, and 21 year olds. But, he is hitting .211, with an OPS of .517. I think that some of this can be attributed to wearing down after a long season, but I had higher targets for his.
Looking back at some posts on him from roughly 2 months ago (from Matt)
“He has more advanced baseball instincts than any high school player in the 2013 draft.”
On where he would be drafted today: “Given the knowledge that he can handle low-A right now I think he would go in the top 15 somewhere. I really messed up with ranking him a week ago, looking at it as I wrote this piece he probably should have been 3, when you look at the defensive profile and level it is hard to put Quinn above him right now. It is going to be really difficult to rank him vs Crawford. “
So, certainly lots of excitement about him from within the past few months. But, am I the only one who is ‘disappointed’ on where we now sit? Not that Crawford should be used as a frame of reference (as he has excelled beyond reasonable expectations), but he is only 7 months older than Tocci. Talk me down from the ledge guys.
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A lot of Tocci’s stats are similar to his season last year with the biggest difference being his BABIP:
GCL: 5.6 % BB 16.8 % K .021 ISO .338 BABIP
Lakewood: 5.0 % BB 15.8 % K .040 ISO .252 BABIP
I think Tocci’s real problem in Lakewood is he just doesn’t have enough strength yet and it’s hurting his BABIP and thus his hitting stats. It would behoove him to add on some muscle and depending on how much he adds is how you make a decision on where to place him. I don’t think there is any debate that Crawford is the better prospect at this time, though but that’s because Crawford has looked so good. Tocci is actually performing fairly well when you look under the surface.
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I totally agree. I went to game in Lakewood a few weeks ago and the number 1 thing that struck me was the size of Tocci compared with the rest of the guys he was playing against. He’s TINY, a stick, with almost 0 muscle mass. The rest of the team and the team he was playing against made him look like a shrimp.
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Perhaps the organization can recommend that he and Larry Greene hang out this off-season. I think someone posted his diet yesterday or 2 days ago – it consisted of running to the fridge for ice-cream – or something similar. That should be good for at least 15 pounds.
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thats been knock on him from day 1 is does he have frame to fill out and add ‘real’ power. Should be interested year next year for him. Too soon for PED? kidding
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At this point Tocci is absolutely exhausted and has lost enough strength* that it is a miracle he is still putting balls in play. That being said Tocci still has the tools and aptitude to be a plus to plus plus defender in CF (great range and instincts and at least a plus arm). He has a really good feel for hitting and bat control well beyond his years, and if you look at his heat map you can see he sprays the ball around the field http://mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=624636. It is a profile that you are just waiting for him to add strength on to because the bat control will allow for line drives and some amount of power. The excitement comes from the fact that he has the baseball instincts you want and he is just turning 18 and the strength will come. But right now the full season has taken its toll on him and he has been running on fumes for months now, and it was going to be the consequence of playing full season ball. If he had gone to Williamsport his numbers would be looking a lot better right now. As for Crawford, he is a better prospect than Tocci, but that has a lot more to do with Crawford has come out and shown than what Tocci has done.
*Over a full season it is not uncommon for a player to lose more than 20lbs of muscle and mass from the inability to put in calories as fast as you are burning them.
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I agree with what you say, but am growing weary of guys justified as prospects largely based upon speed and CF defensive skills. I’ve read the same about Hudson, James and others. Yes Tocci projects to hit better if/when he gains more muscle, but I think the focus of his evaluation should be the likelihood of that happening and what we can expect to see with the bat when it does happen. His defensive skills are a given, but that won’t be enough for him any more than it was enough for Hudson. I hope the Phillies don’t promote him to CLW for next season. The problem with guys like Galvis and Joseph shooting up orgs based largely upon D and a perception that they have the tool to hit enough is that they never get the chance to actually hit enough at any level. Phillies should be trying to build his bulk and strength this winter and then see what he can do in a second, more age-appropriate season at Lakewood.
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Hudson and Joseph had different profiles than Tocci. Hudson didn’t have the advanced control of the strike zone that Tocci does and Joseph was moved up because of an advanced bat, not defense.
The Galvis comp makes sense, but I don’t know that his aggressive handling had anything to do with his current semi-bleak offensive prospects. And Galvis was about a year older than Tocci when he was in Lakewood.
I think the idea is that when Tocci’s strength catches up to the rest of his game, he’ll take off. But if he repeats Lakewood next year he won’t necessarily be improving much, because most parts of his game are already advanced enough for the level. His muscles growing doesn’t have anything to do with whether he plays in Lakewood or Clearwater next year.
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His muscles will develop anywhere, but the FSL heat certainly won’t help him maintain any bulk he adds. The big thing though is that he needs to be place at a level appropriate to his bat so that he can actually experience hitting at a level where he is on a par with the pitchers. Another year of sub-.600 hitting isn’t going to help him. Placing him at a level consistent with his glove makes no sense as he can flag down balls in the OF at any level. You don’t want him going through the minors totally over-matched by pitching, as he has been, and coming to the conclusion that he just can’t hit. At his age, absolutely no shame in repeating Lakewood. And yes, I think without the throwing arm, Joseph does not zip up the ladder as fast as he did. He hat the ‘tools’ to hit, but never actually hit well, likely because he was scooted up the ladder too fast.
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Really, his placement next year depends on two things- his mental maturity and his physical development. If the Phils think he can continue to get better without ever really crushing a level then it’s not a problem. And physically if he puts on weight, then I don’t see what the issue is with moving him up.
You say he’s overmatched, but that’s only in terms of physical strength. In terms of baseball skills, I think he’s shown that he’s not overmatched, by virtue of his K and BB rates, especially before he started to tire out. His performance this year has been very similar to his GCL performance, with the exception of BABIP.
If he repeats Lakewood, that’s fine. But if he does I think it will be more because of how things go in the offseason than how they’ve gone during the season.
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I always thought it was the Vietnamese that bombed Pearl Harbor. Learn something new every day …. 🙂
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Age/level is the single most important statistic there is. That can no be repeated often enough.
For me, he’s top 5 in our system. The only question is whether he’s above Quinn.
Clearly the physical demands of full-season ball are too much for him right now. But that is to be expected at his age, particularly for someone with his build.
At this point, if he develops 40 power he will almost certainly be a starting ML center fielder. Depending on how his other skills develop, he could be that with 30 power.
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I suppose Darin Ruf is the exception that proves your “Age/level is the single most important statistic” rule. Considering that many on this site were calling our #6 ranking of him a huge overrate out of slavish devotion to that rule, I think his month has been pretty exceptional. Also http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-context-of-age-in-the-minor-leagues/
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Not sure the first sentence is meant seriously or sarcastically, but he is indeed an extremely rare exception – if he goes on to have a significant career as a regular, I think you could say “unprecedented exception.” The reality is that people err in the other direction – that is, not giving enough weight to age/level – far, far more often on this site than the reverse. If you use Ruf’s career as a basis for projecting other players, you’re not going to be right very often (if ever).
I do want to talk about Ruf a bit. My reputation aside, I was actually a little bit ahead of the curve on Ruf; I bought into the offense (granted not to the extent he has been performing, but I thought he was a major league hitter – and there will be some regression in his hitting). But certainty l was wrong (there, I said it) on one point: it looks like he can play an adequate corner outfield. And that makes a huge difference. And, yes, there were people around here with more faith in him than I had..
Going forward – and I think my recent positive comments on him give me the right to say this – let’s still not get TOO carried away. There will be some regression in the hitting, and “adequate” defense is not “good” defense. But that said, I’m enjoying his success, and hope for more of the same.
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I wasn’t one of thew people blasting the high ranking – I think I may have had him a little lower, but I did have him in my top ten. Maybe at 8? Not sure.
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LarryM…..’But certainty l was wrong (there, I said it)’…I cannot believe my eyes, well i’ll be….’quell all the liars’!
Ruffie early on has proven many somewhat wrong with his bat for the most part. And I am surprised his defense has improved….though he is suited for LF and Sandberg I am sure will have him there next year and Domo in RF.
Though there are exceptions to every rule, I am still waiting to see how Ruffie plays out over all of next year. I think his powe numbers will be there….but see him sitting at a BA of .260, however with a pretty high OBP of say .350/.375
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It has been a long few months of Phillies baseball. But, Ruf has given me a reason to watch, and some of the young bullpen arms are showing flashes – albeit still inconsistent flashes. Ruf is the guy I will be most interested in at the MLB level, with Asche a close second (and Rollins in there as well).
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What Charlie would say about Ruf:
RUF? HE’S GOOD. HE’S REAL GOOD. AT THE SAME TIME, WHEN HE’S NOT GOOD, HE ISN’T GOOD. I MEAN, HE GETS AFTER IT OUT THERE. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, I LIKE RUF AND THINGS LIKE THAT….
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That said, it certainly is possible to get overly dogmatic about age/level, just as it is possible to push almost anything to an extreme. IMO most of the people preaching the value of age/level around here don’t make that mistake. There’s one prominent exception, though he is someone with whom I generally otherwise agree with.
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Age/level is one important indicator. But just as you couldnt totally discount Ruf 38 hr last year, you cant totally discount Tocci’s career hr total of zero.
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Well sure, but what does that mean in practice? Really both of those guys are sort of sui generis. Ruf for obvious reasons, Tocci because kids that age rarely play at that level and rarely are that advanced in terms of their hitting and defense. Sure, there’s a chance he never adds much muscle. But if he does, he could be truly exceptional. His ceiling may still be the highest in the system. (Personally I would put him behind Crawford.)
And how many players in A ball are truly “can’t miss” prospects anyway? Precious few.The risk on Tocci may be a little higher than some other players, but so is the ceiling. How do you weigh that? Somewhere around 5 sounds right to me; I can see the argument for ranking him a little lower, but I find it really hard, even without the power, to rank him any lower than 10.
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I mean, another way to put it is that, if his ISO was, say, .150, and if he was making better contact leading to even a .250 BA, he would EASILY be top 4 in the system, with an argument for number one. He isn’t so you rank him lower. But given his age/level, IMO not a LOT lower.
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I decided to do a little, you know, actual research. As suspected, the number of 17 year old prospects in that league over the past 13 years is low. I found only 5 who had enough PA to make the list of league leaders. On the one hand, it’s a strong group, with one star (Andrus), a couple guys who could become stars, and only one out and out bust. On the other hand, all 5 had better hitting numbers than Tocci.
You know what I think about comps, and the SS is quite small, but if there is any takeaway (aside from the likelihood that he will play in the majors in SOME capacity), it may be that we should temper our expectations a little, but not much. Still definitely top 10 for me (the thinness of the system past the top 3, especially given graduations and soon to be graduations, is why I think you can still make an argument for #5).
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A fair question with some good points…but I would counter that with the MASSIVE learning curve of living in a new country and learning a new language. Truly something not many of us could imagine. So THAT factored in with the huge learning curve that baseball requires kind of makes it unfair to compare Tocci to Crawford. I guess my point is, not ALL 18 year olds are alike. I think we can ALL agree that Tocci has shown great resilience as he begins his career.
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Tocci is also 7 months younger than Crawford, which is a big difference at that age. Not all 18 year olds are the same age.
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Keivi Rojas bounces back from a bad outing and goes 3 innings with 3 K’s and 0 BB or H. Considering the success he’s had this year and last year it’s kind of confusing why he isn’t getting challenged. Are there no spots for him on the other teams’ relief corps?
I continue to be impressed with Grullon. Once he adds some power he could be our top catching prospect. And up at Lakewood Crawford looks to still be bringing his good approach and getting on base.
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The ABS swing did not have much of a problem with Marcus stroman’s 98mph!
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Yeah that’s cuz he’s only looking to crush pitches remember? With the right approach he could have worked the count some, maybe even taken a walk.
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Let me ask you guys – seriously – a few questions. Oh, first, because it SEEMS to be necessary, just because I don’t think Franco is the major league ready second coming of Mike Schmidt doesn’t mean that I don’t think he is a very good prospect. He is. That said:
(1) Do you honestly think the absurdly low BB% – 3.3% – isn’t a problem at all? If so, what is your basis for believing that?
(2) If you are one of the people who say that “it’s a consequence of how well he is hitting” how do you deal with the fact – not opinion, fact – that (a) most players who hit really well INCREASE their BB rate; (b) it’s next to impossible to find successful hitters who have rates that low (see #3 below).
(3) Do you honestly think that he can have sustained success at the major league level with a 3.3% BB%? Can you name ANY major league players in the past 20 years who have? (Hint: there are none.)
(4) Are the scouts and other observers – the guys who are actually seeing him – not relying upon the numbers – who universally raise at least SOME issues about the approach – all idiots?
Now, I DON”T think is nearly as big a problem as the following question would suggest – I LIKE him as a prospect. But I wonder if there are ANY examples in the last 20 years of a player who has a sub 4.0% BB rate in AA who went on to major league stardom. Even Adam Jones – I wouldn’t QUITE call him a star, but he’s the closest thing I could find to a major league “star” with a poor BB% (4.6% on a career basis) had an 8.6% BB rate in AA
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Hanley Ramirez 7.5% bb rate in AA, David Ortiz 7.36%, Steve Finley (AAA) 5.66%, Alex Rodrigues (AAA) 6.25%, Miguel Cabrera (A) 6.97%, Josh Hamilton 5.26%…i’m done with this exercise, but i think you proved your point about Maikel Franco being a A1 type player in the majors with his current walk rate.
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You know, I bet you really think that that little exercise undercut my argument, which is just hilarious. Actually, if that’s the best you got, it just proves my point, and honestly increases my worry about Franco. Most of those guys had rates TWICE as high as Franco. Even the notoriously free swinging Hamilton – a guy whose career is being wrecked by his poor approach – had a rate almost double Franco’s.
I really think that a lot of the misguided thinking about BBs on this site is a product of binary thinking, putting players in two boxes, “good” BB rates and “poor” BB rates, not realizing that (in terms of long run success) the difference between (say) 5.5% and 3.5% is GREATER than the difference between 5.5% and 15.5%.
Again, none of this is meant to say that Franco won’t be successful. I think he will. YOU guys are the ones discounting the BB rates entirely. Which is pretty much the same (in the opposite direction) as the people who dismissed Ruf’s late season HR tear last season.
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LMFAO!
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Hey Maikel. Stop Hitting HR’s and 2b’s and Driving in Runs. We Need you to walk more!
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That’s a pretty stupid quip, but I’m trying to be nice so I’ll leave it at that.
But you know what? Even setting aside the fact that it’s not either/or – he doesn’t hit HR in every AB, he could walk more and STILL hit HRs – even setting that aside … Since the point of the minor leagues is to develop major league players, not to win games, and since we KNOW he can hit home runs, yes, of COURSE I would like to see him draw some walks, even INSTEAD of home runs. Let’s see some proof of an approach that will actually WORK against major league pitching. I think he can do it. He seems to have done it in A ball – aggressive, but acceptable – but let’s see him do it in AA as well.
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Ridiculous argument on BBrate.
The facts on Franco’s career:
7.4%-Rookie
10.9%-LKW
6.9%-CLW
3.3%-Reading (sss)
He has done in the past and will do it again.
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You could also say his BB rate has been trending down since his 2nd professional season. Franco didn’t have a 10.9% rate at Lakewood. That was mostly in Williamsport and he got moved late and had a 1.5% at Lakewood when he finished out that year. I also question why you have sss next to Reading but not Clearwater. They’re almost the same amount of PA’s. 242 vs 289
2010: 7.4%
2011: 8.8% (10.9% in Williamsport and 1.5% in Lakewood)
2012: 6.9% All Lakewood
2013: 5.3% (6.9% at CLW, 3.3% Reading)
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Then what is his total career MiLB BB rate?
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6.8%. That would be a totally acceptable walk rate if he reverses the trend.
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And I think it’s hilarious that the anti-BB crowd doesn’t even try to engage the actual arguments.
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Larry if it aint broke dont fix it! if he stops producing then you can change his aproach to take more pitches and so on and so fourth.
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that’s it. that’s the counterpoint. like it or not, there is no use asking the same question 8 times on the same thread.
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It is broke, in that it WILL NOT work on the major league level. Period.100% certain.
Why wait until he fails at a higher level (and he will, with that approach) to change the approach? He’s getting bad habits now; the longer he sticks with his current approach, the longer it will take to fix later.
The sad thing is that I suspect (from ancillary evidence) that the coaching staff at Reading shares your philosophy, such as it is. You see, I actually want Franco to succeed. I suspect that the Reading staff is unintentionally sabotaging his chances.
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Don’t forget Larry even RAJ thinks BB are overrated so why would they employee anyone in the system you values them?
I believe it was in the end of May where the big club went 6 or 7 games without taking a walk. You could make the argument that most of us just forgot what it’s like to have a player that can do both hit and take walks.
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When Dom Brown went on his tear in May and a little of June I don’t think he walked once. Also Franco at least in the 29 at bats that I saw worked many counts seeing an average of 4 pitches per plate appearance. He could see a good amount of pitches each AB and just end up seeing a pitch late (a pitchers mistake) that he goes after. In the 29 at bats he could have easily walked about 6-7x instead ended up with hits in some of those ABs
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Cozen’s power seems to dissappear when his walk rate increases and vice versa.
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First of all, his seasonal rate is 6.4%. And it was just 109 PA. And it was entirely unprecedented in baseball history.
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Steve, for a guy who claims that I’M attacking you personally (not really true, except the complaints about your repetitive posts, a point which many people agree with), you have been extraordinarily nasty to me. Tell you what, I’ll stop commenting on my posts if you stop commenting on mine.
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I am not beating a dead horse, but I honestly can’t see it.
Here is the hr: http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=29956953&sid=t522
if you stop it at the 0:04 mark, this is what you see http://screencast.com/t/7QveZTyZ8Ys
i am certainly no expert. but i have spent some time the past few weeks looking at other great hitters and i honestly don’t see much difference in the set position. the motion to get to set is a little funky, but this freeze frame of him in the set position doesn’t seem that different to my amateur eye. and hard to argue with the results. Stroman is a top prospect.
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No, you ARE beating a dead horse. And no one who hasn’t been convinced by these clips already will be convinced by this now. AND it has nothing to do with the approach issue. (IMO, the swing problem IF it is a problem – I am somewhat agnostic on the point) won’t be exposed until he faces more advanced pitching ON A REGULAR BASIS.
Why oh why can’t you be satisfied with the consensus that he is a top prospect who is likely to be a major league regular and who might even be a star? Why so invested in trying to convince us on a daily basis that, barring PEDs or injury, he is almost certain to be a star, which seems to be your position?
You’re acting like this is some unrecognized, unsuspected prospect, instead of a guy who is now a consensus top 50 prospect. So people have some concerns about him. Peoiple have concerns about MOST of the top prospects. No prospect is without flaws. Is he your cousin? The ONLY person who ever said anything TRULY negative about him on this site is one of the anons.
LET IT GO.
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honestly, i post about it mostly because i like to get you all worked up. it is really easy to do and makes me laugh how seriously you take it. like clockwork.
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I think this is pot kettle black territory because you’re the one beating a dead horse about his BB% at Reading.
Here’s what I think about Franco. He has a funky swing that has worked for him in the minors and which other players have been exposed with at levels lower than he is. Some players have even made it to the majors and been exposed, others have made it and been successful. The fact is long-term you lose bat speed. Eventually if Franco does manage to be a success in the bigs he’s going to start “cheating” more in order to generate more bat speed to compensate for his swing.
Now as to his BB%. Larry, I think his career is more of a statement than a little over two months in Reading. If Maikel Franco walked 3.3% his entire minor league career I think that would be a significant red flag. The fact that his career BB% was 7.4% before he took one AB at Reading tells me that this is either just SSS or a change to approach at Reading either by him or his coaches to put the ball in play more. The latter somewhat backed up by his K% being extremely low(8.3%).
If it’s just SSS than it’s not really much of a concern. I’m sure you can find other players who over the course of 2 months walked half as much as their career averages at some point in their careers. If it’s a changed approach at the plate than that’s also something which can be changed as he’s shown a good enough eye in the past to walk at decent(not great) amount, but he’s always been above average in not striking out.
Now he’s abysmal in walking at Reading, but superb in not striking out. If his career had been a guy who was horrible at drawing walks I’d be more concerned and expect to see it mentioned more than just something that has happened over 2 months.
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Good post. Very reasoned and thought out.
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money post. That is exactly what I think is happening.
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I think I remember Dom Brown having probably the best month from a player this season in baseball while going the whole month without a walk. That’s an example.
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Larry you are beating a dead horse . Anytime somebody says anything positive about Franco . You slam his walk rate and his approach . So stop telling people to not do the same thing you are . Peace im done with haters
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It’s subtle, but he draws his hands a little farther back than usual.
Usually from a side angle, the back hand doesn’t go further back than the elbow, so that the back elbow makes a 90 degree angle. Franco is drawing his hands back a little more than that.
Whether or not this will be a problem remains to be seen (and may or may not be related to his approach and walk rate).
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To see it more clearly, compare these two videos:
Franco:
Someone else:
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his hand speed is so ridiculous that you almost can’t pick it up. That was one of best swings I have seen by him. Makes it look too easy.
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USA Today has a very short list of MiLB POY nominees (Springer, Bradley, Sano, Buxton, Bogaerts). Franco doesn’t have the name recognition value of these guys who have all been either very high draft picks or in the spotlight guys for years. Franco’s year is just a tick under these guys IMO. i’m not comparing him to these guys or saying what kind of future MLB player he will be but his 20 year old season has been remarkable. Whenever it has looked like he might stall, he seems to crank it right up again.
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I am going to refrain from taking the bait and comparing Franco to Sano. Everyone know’s where I stand by now 🙂
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I was thinking the same thing that you said about Hewitt. Surprising to me because I wrote him off a long time ago. But 20/20 with elite defense ability is not chopped liver. His issues seem to be limited to RHP, so if nothing else, he looks like a really strong platoon player. check out his R/L splits: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543304
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I too find Hewitt to be intriguing. The challenge, of course, is that his splits are soooo drastic – .199 versus righties, against whom . Too bad that less than 30% of MLB pitchers are lefties.
I am one that is open to a platoon situation, and if he continues to mash against lefties next year (I assume at AAA?), would be open to giving the kid a shot.
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Not sure what happened to my above sentence. I guess proof-reading is not a strong suit.
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Nobody who has watched Hewitt would say he has elite defensive ability. He is at best average as a corner OF. If he were better defensively, he’d be a likelier platoon candidate.
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He would be an intriguing PH as a 5th OF.
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You can’t be a ph if you can’t hit righties. Think about how few lefty relievers there are other than Loogy types.
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no? i thought he was a very good defender with a plus arm. but maybe i am mistaken. if so, then i agree.
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Big time arm strength (70+) not the best accuracy and decision making. Defense has been better this year, but his routes can be really bad, making the glove more average.
He is pretty close to average out in RF
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Didn’t he have like 30 errors last year?
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I’d be fine with the Phillies resigning Hewitt but I won’t lose any sleep if they don’t. Beyond the homeruns and steals his numbers just aren’t that good.
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Still not seeing much at all for Hewitt.
A 24yr old whose “Career Year” is a .716 OPS in AA is not very impressive.
Sure he cut his errors from 19 to 5 this year in the OF but that is still not all that impressive. His RF/9 is not stellar though we do know he has a strong arm.
And the 20 steals is mostly meaningless unless he can get his rate closer to 80%.
That was the figure Davey Lopes and others noted you needed to reach where the extra base gained outweighed the loss of a runner and an out when caught.
He still needs to grow ALOT before he is even close to being a 5th OFer.
I have not really looked at the 40man for next year, but I would be shocked if the Phil’s added him over the Winter. This would make a “Callup” as a reserve in 2014 unlikely.
About the Only Rational of him seeing playing time with the Phils is the Mickey Martinez explanation. Which is that the Phillies will inexplicably call up no talent players that no other teams want and lack major league talent.
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Setting aside the debate about Franco in particular, I love the fact (if love means hate) that, of the bottom 8 players in BB among players with 130 or more PA in the Eastern League, 5 are Reading Phillies.
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Larry Greene is six strikeouts away (152) from matching Anthony Hewitt’s total from his first full season in Lakewood in 2010 (158). Greene has done this in nearly 100 fewer plate appearances. Hewitt hit 11 HR during that season. Greene has 4. I’m surprised Greene doesn’t get killed on here the way Hewitt did back then … the only redeeming stat I can see is the BB rate.
I made a joke earlier this season that Greene was essentially a clone of Art Charles. I’m beginning to wonder if that wasn’t so far off.
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my favorite stat about Greene is his 12 errors in 104 games. that is hard to do.
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You missed a lot of earlier comments writing Greene off as a prospect. Those comments have stopped, because our opinion of Greene hasn’t changed and nobody is stepping up to take the opposing view, so further commenting on Greene’s bad start in pro ball is fairly pointless. I’m sure he’ll be discussed again, at length, if somebody suggests putting him anywhere other than the very end of their top 30 list at the end of the season.
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philly.com just ran a big piece on him. suggesting he is a prospect. that’s sparked the new comments.
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Where have you been? Greene gets killed almost daily here.
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Hernandez not in LV lineup last night. Hurt again?
Olvey Marte. What do we know about him? He hits.
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Roman Oviedo did not have 3 earned runs. He pitch wonderful in his start. He only gave up 1 earned. The two other runs were cause by a horrible fielding display by pointer
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Dinger
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You guys crack me up – especially since some of the same guys talking about sample size are the same guys getting disproportionately excited by the AA K rate.
Here’s the thing – SS is almost entirely irrelevant to the issue of his AA BB performance. Why?
(1) Confirmed by scouts subjective observations. His approach is horrible. My bet is that the total amount of games viewed by all of the people putting there fingers in their ears and refusing to consider the BB rate have seen, collectively, less than 10 of his games.
(2) We’re talking 242 PA. Now, as sample sizes go, that’s not HUGE. For BB (see 3 especially) that’s a meaningful sample size.
(3) BB rates normalize fairly quickly. Certainly MUCH more quickly than, say, BA, which is the area where we see the biggest SSS errors. A 242 PS SS for BA is nothing; for BBs, it is significant.
(4) The extent of the deviation from prior performance matters. It’s the same argument in reverse as Ruf last August. The bigger the deviation, the more likely it means something.
Now, there was ONE smart (though still flawed) response to all of this above, and I think you can guess which one I mean. It posited SS as a possible explanation, but suggested also that what we might be seeing was a conscious change of approach. And that pretty much hits it on the head. It’s very clear to me that either Franco or the coaches decided “you know what? An aggressive approach isn’t good enough. Let’s switch to a hyper aggressive approach.” And that’s bad advice for his long run development., It’s a big reason that this franchise is in the toilet, because the organizational philosophy seems to be that taking walks is unmanly. Or something. Not productive, I guess.
So we have a problem. Fixable, yes. But it would be nice to see him ACTUALLY FIX IT. Instead of pretending that it isn’t a problem, because he is beating up on (mostly) pitchers who won’t be successful major league pitchers.
And of course even apart from all of this, it’s relevant for the comps that people are making. Whatever you think of the BB rate (and let’s remember that his prior rates, while acceptable , were still low), you can’t just compare him to guys with BB rates 2 or 3 or even 4 times as high and expect the comp to mean anything.
Then there is the issue of his Ks. I’ll freely admit that at least SOME of the arguments I made about the BBs apply (in the other direction) for the Ks. But here the subjective observations argue in the other direction. The smart comment did posit one non-smart thing, that maybe the decreased Ks were a result of the changed approach. But that’s absurd; arguing that a more aggressive approach might generate more contact is like arguing that hitting more ground balls will result in more HR. (Yes, contact hitters are often aggressive, but the causation goes the other way.)
And as for the notion that I’M the one who won’t let this drop, I NEVER have brought this up except in response to other posts, in this case the snarky post about his BBs. (scroll up to where this started.)
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Just checked 200 PA is when BB rates become statistically meaningful (technically, the point at which weighing the new sample 50% (and career stats 50%) has the most predictive value).
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What do you think of Dugan’s AA walk rate?
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I think it’s one of the reasons that I am convinced that there is a serious problem with the coaching in AA.
This all goes back to after the 2011 season, when Amaro said he was concerned with the team hitting approach. Many people though he was saying that the team didn’t talk enough BB, which would have been a reasonable take. In retrospect, I think he meant that the team wasn’t aggressive enough. Everything he has done since confirms that inference.
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I think Amaro made clear what he meant when he held up Polanco as the example to emulate.
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And the thing is, Polanco had an approach that worked for him. For most of his career he wasn’t really even an exceptionally free swinger – in fact, on a career basis he swung at a below average number of pitches outside the zone. His low BB rate – and it was still over 5.0, which is roughly the point below which players start to have a real problem – was a function of minimal power and his high contact rate.
But one size does not fit all. I think that the approach being taught doesn’t suit other players nearly as well as Polanco. (And, separate but related issue, even apart from :”approach” issues, the low organizational value placed on BBs is one reason there have been a number of poor choices in terms of talent acquisition).
Of course people will argue that Franco can get away with his approach for the same reason that Polanco did (and add power). But his contact rate is worse – even the AA rate, the career rate is MUCH worse – and BB rate even worse. I DO happen to think that Franco can likely get away with a more aggressive approach than could a guy who has contact issues. That’s why the pre-AA rates, while low, never really bothered me.
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I’d add Lakewood into that mix as well. Just so many guys failing to develop and obviously given wrong headed instructions to flail away.
Look, the thing about BB is that you’re forcing the pitcher to throw strikes. If you take the balls then they have to throw meatballs over the plate. Franco’s been borderline great, but if he got better pitches to swing at he’d be outstanding. If I’m a pitcher I just keep throwing him stuff out of the zone. He might make contact, but it’ll probably be weak. I love the guys contact skills, but you’re fooling yourself if you think it doesn’t make a difference where that contact is being made (in the zone or out).
I do agree that he’s shown some patience in the past so there’s hope that he can turn it around – it may be as easy as being instructed to be more selective – so yeah, I have hope, but if this current Amaroesque philosophy continues to flourish in our system than guess what – we’re screwed. It’s going to take a special prospect to totally ignore management and take ownership of their own development. Hard thing for an 18 year old kid to do.
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Please explain Jeremy Hermida’s decline from greatness as his BB rate was pretty darn good in AAA a few years ago before the Marlin experinece?.
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I’m not sure what Hermida’s problem has been in the majors but, prospects fail for a plethora of reasons. Are you pointing to one example of a guy who failed despite a good walk rate as an argument for walk rate not being important?
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From my perspective, Steve’s baiting you without being abusive, and jerks aren’t barred from the site unless they get abusive. I’d ignore him, were I you. If you don’t think that’s acceptable, take it up with Gregg, I guess.
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Ding, ding, we have a winner.
Larry, it’s pretty obvious that Steve is baiting you (but not in a flagrant manner); he’s even admitted as much. So I second Brad’s suggestion – stop taking the bait.
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The offensive posts were removed. That’s all I was asking for. Obviously one of the other guys disagreed with Brad.
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Still not sure what Steve said that was offensive. Maybe it was deleted before I was done looking for it.
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Agreed. Maybe Steve and one or two others will go away if not fed
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Feed me Seymour, feed me!
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Ding, ding, we have a winner.
Larry, it’s pretty obvious that Steve is baiting you (though not in a flagrant manner). He’s even admitted as much. I would second Brad’s advice above – stop taking the bait.
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Does this mean Steve is the masterba… No wait, I won’t finish typing that.
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Larry The only Scout to say he has a horrible approach was Keith law who was once a Scout but is actually a journalist and in my humble opinion is a horse sh** Scout and ranks guys by draft status or signing bonus but he is a good journalist. That being said it is classic how you take the comments of law and forget about other Scout comments like “best bat I have seen this year”. Or badler saying he has his vote for minor league player of the year. Also the kid Barrels the ball. As long as he keeps doing that and not striking out. I hope he swings at anything he can get the barrel on. With his strength bat speed and hjttability good things will happen as his #’s are showing. If he strikes a lot it would mean he is swinging at pitches out of the zone that he can’t handle but obviously that is not the case
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Mark Hulet also expressed concerns:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-stock-watch-philadelphia-phillies/
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His bat is going to have to carry him because he’s a well-below-average runner and his defense at third base is fringe-average.
Exactly who is mark Hulet watching!…..he is the first to question his defense. Kelly Dugan sees him quite often and says he is the best 3rd baseman he has seen in the minors.
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Kelly Dugan is obviously capable of being entirely objective about his teammates
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Now we question the objectivity of a ballplayer who actually plays the game, and no less sees someone on play on a daily basis!.
Amazing the cynical mind of the metric nome!
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How often do you see guys say critical things about their teammates? If you don’t see how someone close to the situation wouldn’t necessarily provide an objective analysis I don’t know what to tell you. Next thing you know we should call up Franco’s parents and ask them for their analysis on him.
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Then why not read what most of the scouts report on his defense. Hulet’s was a first for me to see, re: ‘fringe-average’. From his arm, to his glove all I have read were well above average to plus. Not fringe-average.
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Most of what I’ve heard is he has a great arm with not much range.
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Range at third? Quickness is what I would prefer to range. Range IMO, would be more critical at ss or 2nd.
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I’m assuming the comment on range is with respect to 3rd base. Like he has subpar range for a 3rd baseman.
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I’ve read other negative (or at least no wholly positive) comments on his defense. Hulet is not the first.
I don’t have any settled opinion about his defense, and please don’t read this as “yet another criticism of Franco from Larry.” But taking all of the defensive evaluations I’ve seen of him, what I get is:
(1) Plus arm;
(2) Good positioning/instincts, which compensates for;
(3) Mediocre range because of his slow foot speed.
Where does that leave him? Heck if I know. “Fringe average” is not some horrible insult; no one is saying he is BAD. But it’s hard to be a truly exceptional third baseman with such slow foot speed. Chase Utley is an example of a guy who compensates for a limited range by plus plus instincts and positioning. He was a truly exceptional defensive second baseman, and is still above average. Maybe Franco is (defensively) the equivalent at third base. I hope so. But he is even slower than Utley.
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And so do several others. Even the guy who gave him the best review I’ve seen – Sickels – expressed concerns about his approach.
Look, this is really a kind of sick fundamentalism now. The notion that an unbelievably poor BB% Is NOT ISSUE AT all is beyond crazy. I’ve tried to be nice, but since the craziods think it’s okay to insult me, why bother? One can legitimately:
(1) Disagree about how big a problem it is;
(2) Disagree about how fixable it is; and
(3) Disagree about how URGENT it is to fix it.
In fact, on 1 and 2 I’m actually NOT nearly as concerned as I would normally be at such a low BB rate. My biggest worry is 3, in that I think bad habits are being ingrained. I blame the coaching staff for that.
But pretending that it is NO PROBLEM at all is a profound an irrational ignorance.
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So what it really comes down is your disdain for Ruben and his philosophy on BBs and their ‘non-productivity issue’ which Ruben has managed to permeated the system.
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Well sure that’s a big part of it, but appropriately so.
I find Franco’s AA performance and approach quite curious because it is at variance with the his past performance and prior reports of the approach. I’ve said all along that I think it’s fixable and not a huge red flag. But if he’s being taught to take that hyper aggressive approach – that’s a bad sign for him and for the organization as a whole.
The BB rates at Reading the past couple of years are SO bad that they seem to be indicative of an organizational philosophy.
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I understand Larry where u coming from but if the kid keeps hitting let him be.. And I 100% believe we are truly watching something special with Franco
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Marcus Stroman Wishes Franco Walked last night insted of putting his pitch in the LF bleachers!
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Just a short time ago, who would’ve thought that Buchanan is a viable candidate for a rotation spot w the big club in ’14 at spring training? It seems that he has been putting things together as his last few games including Lehigh Valley shows. Very pleased since for me he has come out of the nether world and because we will be desperate for a refreshed pitching staff.
P.S. Haven’t we all grown tired of the Franco continuing fights? Let the guy play…and watch the results. Other items on the team’s agenda are worth discussion, no? Franco-obsessive….not!
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Or we could have a separate screed place for Franco alone…prohibiting discussion about anybody else!
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I was reviewing my pre-season Top 30 piece and I had forgotten I had Buchanan as a sleeper as a back of the rotation/middle relief guy who could get there quick. The problem has always been the secondary pitches, the fastball is somewhere between average and plus. He is interesting because he needs a 40 man spot and while he may not be the biggest name he could easily be the next version of Tyler Cloyd (not in arsenal but in terms of a #5/#6 starter who sticks in AAA until needed). I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a shot as a long man. Definitely an under the radar guy.
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He really isn’t a 2014 rotation candidate out of ST. He is a candidate to be one of the replacement starters if a big league starter goes down. A couple of guys would have to go down for Buchanan to make the Phillies rotation out of ST. Either that or we have a really crappy rotation due to non-signings/trades/injuries. If healthy, Pettibone is certainly ahead of him.
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Well, that settles that.
On Pettibone: if there were other viable candidates for the rotation, Pettibone wouldn’t fare very well. IMO, he will turn out to be a #4 0r #5…if at all.
I regard Buchanan as superior in that he does have a good fast ball and (as Matt mentioned) has brought forth a couple better off-speed pitches, and it seems he has decent control/command. OTOH, Pettibone hasn’t the kind of command required of a guy without a fast ball average or better that can be a strikeout pitch. I wish Pet’ne had enough of a giddyup on his “heater” but it doesn’t seem to be there.
So, for these reasons I like “Bucky” Buchanan as a rotation possible via audition at ST in ’14.
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Pettibone’s avg fastball velo was 90.7 mph, but his max was 95, so we saw some instances where he could reach back for more. How much better is Buchanan’s fastball? Buchanan’s K rate in AA was in Kyle Kendrick territory during his AA year, and Kendrick was two years younger. I think this is one instance where the grass is probably not greener.
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Pettibone reaching back and getting it near the mid-90s and those extra ticks on the velo average, could have impaired his shoulder.
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saw buchanan pitch earlier this for reading and he consistently was in the low 90’s. i was impressed and felt he could be a bullpen piece for the phillies but with his successful starts at LV, he could be a 4 or 5 depending on his secondary pitches.
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By the way, who knows anything of interest on this guy Vern Biter now playing at our Clwtr GCL team? Young guy (1994 dob), left OFer out of Las Vegas HS now stroking above .300 there leading off. Also, what has happened to Steve Golden…OFer?
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Golden really struggled and I don’t know if him and Knight have much future left. The reports I have on Biter are that he lacks any stand out tools but he can play CF and he is your stereotypical “ball player” who has the tools all play up. Not in the league of the other 2013 draftees but not a non-prospect.
70-80 grade name
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Very SSS, but Biter has one of the most extreme R/L splits you’ll ever see. His OPS is .343 against LHP and 1.003 against RHP. Beyond that, although he bats L, he throws R.
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Also, the guy’s got a BABIP just shy of .500. He has no HR and strikes out a third of the time, but has a .295 BA.
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Steve Golden is 18 years old in the GCL, and you’re already questioning his future? Tough crowd.
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One sign is how much playing time the Phillies give individual players. Another is where they hit in the batting order. That’s a part of the Hewitt story. He usually has hit at the bottom of the lineup, has DHed a fair amount. Not how the Phillies treat someone they regard as a prospect.
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shame knight mom comes on here. she is a nice lady. we should hope he turns it around,
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🙂 No worries Roccom!! 🙂 I know what kind of kid my son is and know how hard of a worker he is. I also know things you all don’t. 😉 I’m not worried about him, or his career in baseball if it ends this year then oh well. But you know what, he was there! He has made some great friends and heck, he got to hit off of Halladay, play games with Howard, go out to eat with many of the big leaguers after ST each year, heck he even played in a couple of games with Thome. He has had an experience of a lifetime and we are very proud of everything he has done and the work ethics he is showing to the organization. Everything is not always about numbers. Have a great weekend everyone!
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Classy lady……
I am a long time lurker here but I needed to register just to tell you that. With you as his mom, he will be fine.
Thanks….
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Thank you Howard! I hope you have a great weekend. 🙂
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Cool attitude! More power to you and to your son.
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Thank you! 😉 I hope you have a nice weekend as well. And you have to have a “cool” attitude on it, there really is no other way to do it. It is a hard thing that they do. The money struggles (for some), being away from home, living in a hotel, eating not so great food and more. But you know what, even if it is for a small amount of time they are
“living the dream” and playing baseball for a part time job.
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Golden has been hurt. He hurt his wrist a few weeks ago.
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You biting on Biter?
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30th round pick with a 30% K rate, 0.70 ISO, and a near .500 BABIP? What’s not to like!
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That’s .070 ISO of course. With .70, I might be tempted to, er, bite.
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I’ve read through all of the Franco discussions in the last day or 2 or 10, and have come to the following very important question, which I think is the most important question:
How do you pronounce his first name? Is it “My-kel”, “May-kel”, Michael, or something else?
It was not until about a month ago that I learned how to pronounce Asche the proper way.
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I think it is the first one.
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Many people who speak Spanish natively and have, or want to have an with the US, name their children phonetically so that, when relatives or friends, who speak Spanish, say the name, they say it just like it sounds here. Therefore, his name is pronounced just like Michael. Maybe his parents were thinking MLB when he was born.
I have an Argentine friend who named his son Mykel and all his Spanish speaking friends pronounced it just like we say Michael. It works.
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Cord Sandberg has really been scuffling of late. His BA is down to .201, and just 160 over his last 30 days. He does have 24 walks to go along with his 31 K’s.
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BB% and K% both very good. 13.6 / 17.6. Not really going to knock a guy for a low BABIP in the GCL.
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Talked with Chris King (BP’s GCL scout) and Sandberg is not barreling up the ball well right now, he has been hitting a ton of ground balls and not making good contact so it is not all luck. On some days he will really get a hold of a bunch of pitches and drive them but he has struggled with making good contact at times
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Matt is it normal for young kids like sanberg and herdanez to struggles in gcl, first time facing that level of competition, being away from home. What value do you put on kids like that who struggle there first year.
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Depends on why they are struggling. In the GCL scouting reports are king because there are so many adjustments made over the season all stats are SSS. What I care most about is do the scouting reports match (or are better than) the draft reports
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So if I understand you matt. if the kid is struggling but has good scouting reports on his bat speed,and say better speed and arm than scouting reports, that is a plus to you, or if a kid has better velocity than scouting reports, but needs to work on breaking ball. its okay if he struggling first year there.
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Absolutely, for the most part when a guy shows up in the GCL they just let him play, they make little adjustments throughout the year but any sort of large correction to a player is going to occur in instructs and spring training. So you are looking for the raw material to make a player with more than anything. The warning flags go up when you start having the “I don’t see how that guys was a high round pick” from scouts. That being said there are certainly some red flags with some of the 2013 draftees in the GCL.
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And some of our very primo picks from the prior two drafts, unfortunately (not in GCL), but one could certainly look at Gueller and Greene and Martinez and Hudson and say there is less there than the scouts thought they saw prior to the draft, including things as basic as FB velocity.
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The big one I think of is Savery who showed in the GCL and scouts who hadn’t seen him in college were thinking he was a late round pick
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Yeah, he was a huge return to health gamble.
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Valle has 7 walks in 13 games this month (and 9 in his last 15). He had 25 total in his minor league career prior to the year (lol) and he’s already got 19 this year. Who the hell is this guy and what has he done with Sebastian?
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I’ve been noticing the same thing. Hopefully it’s a sign that he’s listening to coaches about changing his approach, and not a byproduct of his being passive since he’s been slumping at the plate. He’s still young, plays quality defense at a primo position, and has power — all factors that could lead to a big league future if his approach improves.
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Or maybe you should have said “hopefully it’s a sign that he’s decided to ignore his coaches and change his approach.” Okay, okay, I’ll stop. 🙂
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Walding hasnt played the last 2-3 games. Anyone know what’s up?
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he is hurt
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Franco should be traded. Doesn’t walk enough and hits too many homers. This walk thing and all of the professional hitters on this site. Please give it a break. He gets his front foot down in a balanced position and hands are back. What’s the problem? I’m sure he reads this site and listens to most of you experienced hitting coaches.
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Ill probably catch some flack for this statement, but I think we might see Franco in September.
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Extremely doubtful. The Phillies won’t want to put that pressure on him and especially not on Asche. Franco doesn’t need to be on the 40-man and it would make no sense for the Phillies to use a 40-man roster spot and lose a guy over the winter, just to give Franco a month in the bigs.
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That is my thought too. You are pushing one of him or Asche off of 3B to get 4 weeks of ABs and give up a 40 man spot. You figure Franco will play winter ball so you give him a good break before that. He shouldn’t be in the discussion for 3B out of spring training anyway.
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Amaro said he would be competing for the job… this is my logic
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if someone takes Young in a trade. you will see Franco’s Contract Selected. Phillies are looking at future and he is a part of it. why not let him get his feet wet and get some ab’s even if it is at 1b for the few days in Sept. and in the spring cody and him will battle it out for 3b. We need the best guy we can get up there next year
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Very unlikely
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Asche with a big pinch hit and then excellent base running tonight. He just has to learn to lay off pitches out of the zone.
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Asche is getting himself out. swinging at low pitches out of the strike zone. first time I am seeing him dont know if he is just anxious or he likes to chase. If you watched him this week two times with bases loaded he swung at low pitches and tried to pull, and hit weak grounders.
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Lefthanders hit low balls well,..that is their power zone.
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I KNOW that is there sweet zone low and inside, but he is going out of the zone and topping the ball, not swinging at strikes.balls were too low to really hit,
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Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said before tonight’s game with the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park that Pettibone isn’t likely to pitch this season.
“He has some inflammation in his rotator cuff and they want to shut him down for about 3-6 weeks from throwing which would make his season basically over,” Amaro said.
Pettibone has been on the disabled list since Aug. 2 with a right shoulder strain.
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Anonymous, maybe its me. but the more amaro talks the worst he looks, I really believe he has no idea how to build a team. listening to his excuses of why his moves in bullpen havent worked out. adams wasnt a guy a pennant contender could count on, with his history of injuries. Hope the ownership and monty see it and go after a good young gm from the cardinals or giants teams who know how to build a winner.and scout
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roccom- Amaro signed Chan Ho Park, Danys Baez, J.C. Romero, Chad Qualls and Chad Durbin to serve as middle relievers. In some instances, they were asked to do more than that. But, for the most part, they failed in any situation. Jose Contreras delivered consistency for one season, then was re-signed at age 39 for $5.5 million to pitch in 34 games from 2011-12.
Have to agree with your assessment on Ruben.
Additionally, looks like Dubee is gone after October when his contract is up.
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Here’s an oddity:
Phillies best LHP prospect…Jesse Biddle with a 5-13 record and earned runs at 3.6
Phillies ace LHP starter……Cole Hamels with a 5-13 record and earned runs at 3.6.
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Several comments:
Despite the romance of Franco and many posters here, IMO he is headed for 1st base on the big club. The FO, iMO, is greatly pleased with Asche who I believe is their long-term choice to play 3rd. His fielding is good and he has, as recently mentioned, no limitation of range like Franco, and they LOVE his ‘tude.
But Franco MUST be on the field and at bat. His righty power promised is essential to this left-leaning lineup. His move by the FO to 1st base should not go unnoticed along with the perceptions here mentioned.
On Rupp: the guy is now 25 yrs old. He has been named as our system’s best defensive catcher. His offense has improved as he has climbed the minor’s ladder. He now offers a potential for 15 or so HRs/season. No reason he couldn’t hit @ #7 or 8 and give an injection of hungry youth instead of a guy who won’t be around very long: Kratz. Rupp=future, Kratz=past. Isn’t it time to serve youth on this aged team? No reason to make Rupp wait any longer.
Cozen: Like an above poster, I believe he is likely to breakout more in ’14. A big guy who looks like he should generate explosive power in his bat. His past is missing a lot of baseball play like others had enjoyed prior to their drafting. He is still making the kind of adjustment common to those who lack a lot of game experience. I can see him having a much more rewarding ’14. Could be a great pleasure to watch at Lkwd.
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