Hot or Not

Other Stuff

A look back at the time period of August 15-21. Quick thoughts…the lack of production this year by 2012 high draft picks Shane Watson and Mitch Guellar is enough for a raised eyebrow but far too early to give up…Is Harold Martinez coming around, or is his production simply him catching up with High A pitching after 2 full years in CLearwater…Three starts, and all of them very solid for David Buchanan in AAA…Control issues for Kenny Giles this week, hopefully just a mirage.

Note: There will not be a “Hot or Not” published next week. The final edition will cover the last week and a half of the season.

Hot Hitters: Matt Tolbert (.500); Harold Martinez (.476, 7R, 4RBI); Cesar Hernandez (.467, 6R), Tyler Henson (.467); Cameron Rupp (.467); Jiwan James (.421, 5R, 5RBI, 3SB); Brock Stassi (.411, 5R 4RBI); Cameron Perkins (.400); Justin Parr (.375, 5R); Jim Murphy (.370, 2HR 6RBI); Gutavo Martinez (.368);  Honorable mention: Ferdinand, Greene, Moore, Mojica, Altherr, Pierce, Carmona

Not Hot Hitters: Jia Tromp (.067); Cody Overbeck (.083); Sebastian Valle (.095); Anthony Hewitt (.095); Jair Morelos (.111); Venn Biter (.125); Cord Sandberg (.130); Josh Fields (.133); Pete Lavin (.133); Jan Hernandez (.143); Alejandro Vilalobos (.143);

Hot Starters: Bobby Bramhall (11IP 4H 0ER 5BB 8K, 2 starts); Ryan Demmin (7IP 5H 0ER 0BB 1K); Greg Smith (7IP 6H 2ER 1BB 7K); Mario Hollands (7IP 6H 2ER 0BB 6K); Ethan Stewart (6IP 7H 1ER 3BB 2K); David Buchanan (6.1IP 6H 2ER 3BB 3K); Alejandro Arteaga (6IP 8H 2ER 1BB 3K); Perci Garner (5.2IP 6H 2ER 2BB 7K); Mark Leiter (5IP 2H 0ER 1BB 4K);  Honorable mention: Sanchez, Anderson, Rios, Paulino

Not Hot Starters:Mitch Guellar (7.1IP 20H 8ER 3BB 0K, 2 starts); Ranfi Casimeiro (4IP 4H 4ER 3BB 3K)

Hot Relievers: Mark Meadors (7IP 1H 0ER 2BB 7K); JC Ramirez (5IP 1H 0ER 0BB 3K); Lee Ridenhour (5IP 4H 0ER 0BB 4K); Felix Santos (4IP 1H 0ER 0BB 3K); Kevin Walter (4IP 3H 0ER 0BB 6K);  Jordan Elliott (4IP 0H 0ER 0BB 3K);  Colby Shreve (3.2IP 1H 0ER 0BB 1K); Mauricio Robles (3IP 1H 0ER 3BB 5K, 2SV); Colton Murray (3.1IP 3H 0ER 1BB 7K); Justin Friend(3.1IP 1H 0ER 3BB 4K); Honorable Mention: Forsythe, Warner, Burgess,Alezones; O’Sullivan 

Not Hot Relievers:Juan Sosa (1.1IP 5H 5ER 1BB 1K); Keivi Rojas (3.2IP 6H 4ER 4BB 5k); Kenny Giles (2IP 1H 2ER 4BB 2K); Jay Johnson (2IP 4H 2ER 2BB 1K); Kyle SImon (3IP 4H 3ER 0BB 1K)

45 thoughts on “Hot or Not”

  1. There must be something wrong with Gueller or everyone has been wrong about him. He’s supposed to have a big arm. He’s been pretty bad. In his last 10 games, he’s had 3 –what I would call– decent or good outings. His last two are so bad, I’d have driven him to the emergency room for surgery. He’s young. He’s a big kid. But he’s very hittable and he can’t K many.

    Like

    1. As to the K-rates, I’ve read Mitch Rupert who covers Williamsport say in multiple articles that the team is teaching the SP’s to pitch to contact. Not really sure I understand having a certain philosophy you use for every SP. I would think you need to address each pitcher on a individual basis and pattern their style to what suits their abilities.

      Like

      1. Maybe that explains why W-Port pitchers generally have pretty mediocre K-rates. Here I thought it was just because they were almost devoid of major league quality talent.

        Like

        1. My idea of minor league instruction Hell is a team that teaches pitchers to pitch to contact and coaches hitters to be really aggressive.

          Like

          1. Maybe the Phillies are trying to get the starting pitchers to last longer in games and not try to strike everyone out as some of these young men have done in the past. As for the hitters that have come up through our system; Asche and Ruf have shown good plate discipline mostly so far. There is a fine line between working the pitcher or allowing the pitcher to get away with some bad pitches by being passive(John Mayberry as an example).

            Like

            1. Only in the sabrmetric world of Billy Beane.
              A’s teach their pitchers to PTC, as Joe Blanton has said at times in the past. Plus it saves their arms from early TJ issues, strengthening young arms.

              Like

      3. I would assume Phillies’ coaches are trying to avoid massive walk rates.
        It appears to be a problem throughout nearly all of the Phillies ‘good’ arms. Cloyd, and Gonzalez are the guys with good control. Rest of the org is full of Biddle, Martin, Aumount, Diekman types that may walk themselves out of job.

        I like the idea of trying teach the young pitchers control and command. After being able to throw 95mph FB’s near the plate so batters can try to hit them, hopefully pitching prospects can get then work on refinements to expand the zone and develop improved breaking balls.

        Though high K rates are the ‘flashy’ stat of pitching, BB rates can be an anchor. I like the idea of getting the fielders some practice. When they need it, those pitchers should be able to throw the right pitch in the right location to get a K when needed. Plus if their stuff is good enough, even pitches ‘in the zone’ will not be hit.

        Like

  2. Phillies roster 2014 good right left mix and younger.
    1. Revere CF
    2. Jimmy SS
    3. Utley 2b
    4. Howard 1b
    5. Ruff rf
    6. Brown lf
    7 ABS 3b
    8. Chooch c
    9. Lee,hamals,haladay,martin,biddle
    Bullpen
    Paps
    Bastardo
    Diekman
    Garcia
    Adams
    Defratus
    Good FA
    Bench
    Galvis
    Hernandez
    Asche
    Rupp
    Mayberry

    Like

    2. the starters are basically locked in but I think it’s a stretch to hand the rf spot to ruf unless they get power at 3rd and they’re not going to do that until they’re sure of what they’ve got in asche and franco. plus there is no way you count on adams and garcia plus you have to have power off the bench and yours with galvis, hernandez and mayberry may be the worse bench we’ve ever had. kratz will be back as the back up, it’s galviz or hernandez not both and if they sign a right fielder mayberry is gone in favor of ruf’s power

      Like

    3. Biddle won’t be ready and Halladay may never be an MLB pitcher again. I know Pettibone just had a relapse, but if healthy he’s one of the guys. Ditto Kendrick. Maybe Martin in the rotation, maybe in the pen. Martin looks like a 5 inning starter, 6 on a good night. Likely that’s not good enough. It’ll be Asche at 3B. Franco’s going to spend another year in the minors. It’ll be Jimmy at SS, but it likely won’t be pretty. I’ll predict Galvis replaces him by end of season.

      Like

  3. 1-revere
    2-choo(16)?
    3-utley
    4-d. brown
    5-mcCann(17)?
    6-howard
    7-rollins
    8- asche
    approx-85 million +5 for bench rupp/ruf/galvis/cf/frandsen- 90 million

    1-cole
    2-lee
    3-halladay(10M)?
    4-gonzales(hopefully)(now 6M w/ injury)?
    5-pettibone/martin/morgan/biddle
    trade kk-
    approx.65 million

    1-paps
    2-FA(6M)
    3-FA(5M)
    4-bastardo(2M)?
    5-adams(fingers crossed)
    6-defratus
    7-diekman
    8-stutes
    aumont/ robles/horst/martin(if doesn’t make rotation)etc.
    approx. 35M
    That’s about 189-190 Million
    I think that team gets at least a wild card. Let it be so Rube

    Like

    2. Is MAG injured? Was that the snag in signing him. I guess that would be a large snag if you cant pass a physical

      Like

      1. Could take the $60m going towards MAG and put it towards a Japanese pitcher likely to posted this off-season in 24 year old (would be 25 for next season) Masahiro Tanaka.

        Masahiro Tanaka – 24 years old(still 2013 ongoing)
        2013 – 17W/0L, 20GS, 1.20 ERA, 158 IP, 0.911 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9

        last 3 seasons in Japan
        69GS, 46-9, 557 IP, 1.43 ERA, 68BB, 453H. 0.935 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

        Yu Darvish – last season in Japan was 24 years old
        2011 – 18-6, 28GS, 1.44 ERA, 0.828 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9, 10.8 K/9

        last 3 seasons in Japan
        77 GS, 45-19, 616 IP, 1.64 ERA, 432H, 128BB, 0.910 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 9.7 K/9

        He’s not Darvish as he doesn’t have the dominating fastball since he throws in the low 90s, but can reach back at times for more. Likely would cost more than MAG since you’ll probably need around a $35-$45 posting offer and then sign him to a contract on top of that.

        Like

        1. Yeah maybe the phillies could take the money and sign the Abreu guy and sit Howard down or maybe see if that kid can play right field . Yeah I know it isnt gonna happen but I can still hope, and man something scares me about soft tossing Japanese pitchers. I hope that it does not sound like a bigoted statement , but everything will be ok if he has like 6 pitches

          Like

      2. It’s 26 because I can’t predict if the phillies will carry an extra bat or reliever. I would guess arm.

        Like

  4. I posted this somewhere else but the following line up maximizes the aging core and allows for your youth to play now AND later. M

    1. Revere CF
    2. Utley 2B
    3. Brown RF
    4. McCann C
    5. Nelson Cruz (Melky type deal)
    6. Howard/Ruf 1B Platoon (just don’t look at Rufs splits this year haha)
    7. Rollins SS
    8. Ashe 3B

    Could switch Rollins and Ashe if you’d like but this line up would CERTAINLY compete for a playoff spot. Cruz might even want a 1yr deal to re establish himself. Face it none of our catching prospects are MLB starters except for maybe Grullion (sp) and he’s years away. Everyone else are MLB back ups.

    Rotation:

    1. Hamels
    2. Lee
    3. Halladay or De La Rose
    4. De La Rosa (FA Signing) if Halladay doesn’t look good then you move MAG if he is signed)
    5. Morgan/Pettibone/Martin

    Kendrick is going to make between 8m-9m and if you want to pay him that then you are crazy. If no Halladay then your 4-5 are one of the 3 that are in your 5th spot.

    Like

    2. Trying to read between the lines of a few articles that I recently read, it looks like the Phils aren’t committed to Revere in center field. Ruf is a full time player and I would consider playing him at first against lefties and in the outfield against righties. Maybe a platoon with Mayberry.

      Like

      1. This is a lineup I would like see this September once the minors are done.
        1. Cesar Hernandez CF
        2. Chase Utley 2B
        3. Darin Ruf 1B
        4. Dom Brown RF
        5. Makil Franco 3B
        6. Cody Asche LF
        7. Carlos Ruiz C
        8. Jimmy Rollins SS
        Also could try Franco at first and keep Asche and Ruf where they are.

        Like

        1. I’m wondering – honestly wondering – if a lot of the “it’s not enough to recognize that Franco is a great prospect; anything less than uncritical adoration is a dire insult” push back is about the hope that he will be the starting third baseman in 2014. I really scratch my head at this. What’s the rush? Really? Do you or anyone really think that a youth movement is going to transform the team back into a contender? Serious questions, I am not being snarky or mean.

          Hernandez is even more curious. Even setting aside the fact that his hitting would be even more marginal as a center fielder, he’s had very very limited experience in center field (and initial reports were not good). What’s the point of playing him in CF in the majors at this point, aside from embarrassing him and retarding his development? Do you honestly think he can or should supplant Revere? As hitters, I don’t see Hernandez being better (he may be worse)*; Revere is faster; and, depending upon how quickly Hernandez can learn the position, and whether Revere can play defense at his former high level, Revere has somewhere between a small edge (if one is pessimistic about Revere and optimistic about Hernandez) and a massive edge (which IMO is more realistic). So what’s the point of bringing him up? Again a serious question.

          *Revere has a MUCH better contact rate, and will have a substantial edge in BA. It’s true that Hernandez has a better BB rate THIS year, in AAA, than Revere’s major league rate, but I see no reason to think he will have an edge in the majors. Hernandez probably has a bit more power, but let’s face it, not much. I see that probably making up for the lower BA, but no more than that, and obviously the Risk factor is higher with Hernandez.

          And Asche in LF is really just kind of “WTF!!!!!!!!!!” On that point, I don’t know if I want to hear the rationale.

          Like

        2. I mean, I’m really not trying to be mean. I like some of our upper level prospects, but I don’t really see them being SO good that you rush three of them into the lineup, moving three of them leftward in the defensive spectrum … I mean, the notion of 2/3 of your OF being Asche (who I like as a third baseman) and Hernandez (who I like as a utility guy) just SCREAMS sub-mediocrity. Even with Brown as your other corner outfielder, that would be one of the 2 or 3 worst outfields int he league.

          Like

        3. Two further comments about Hernandez:

          (1) As I understand the case for him, it relied in large measure on the assumption that he would provide plus defense at second base. I am skeptical but agnostic on that point, but you give up that value by moving him to center field.

          (2) I do realize that a significant amount of the enthusiasm for him is based upon the belief that he will bat .300 in the majors. This may be something we need to agree to disagree on, as a significant minority of the readership here remains convinced that minor league batting averages are a good predictor of major league batting averages. But a non-power hitter with a K rate of 18.3% – his AAA rate this year – is not going to hit .300 in the majors over a significant sample size. ZIPS projects him to hit .269, and that looks about right to me. ZIPs overall projection of .269/.298/.353 also looks about right (though likely he would improve upon that in future years). As a slick fielding second baseman, if he is that, with speed, that’s … acceptable, though nothing to get too excited about. As a center fielder just learning the position -, it is not.

          Like

          1. Relax Larry, I said I would like to see this lineup in Sept. 2013, not April 2014. If your rather watch Mayberry or Bernadina play center then that’s ok. My intention is to give these guys a look see. I also am trying to figure a way to keep Asche a phillie for the long term because I really like his make up.

            Like

  5. Regarding the lineups, keep in mind that it is looking increasingly unlikely that the team will get a protected pick. As I’ve made clear, I’m not in the “tear it down” camp, but I also don’t think the team needs to be losing first round picks.

    In the OF, I’m starting to think that Ruf may well win a job for next year. If the team was closer to contention and in win now mode, I’d prefer a good FA pick up (though the list is short this year as we know). But given the team’s actual circumstances, Ruf may be as good as or better than the realistic alternatives. Based on performance alone – and yes, I DO expect regression – he is a 3.6 WAR per year player.* That’s a borderline star. No, he won’t maintain that, but he might well be an average regular going forward, or even a little better.

    Of course now expect him to go into a prolonged slump as a result of the Larry jinx (e.g., Galvis and Frandsen).

    I also suspect that Ruiz’ late revival, assuming it continues (albeit at a lower level, he won’t stay this hot) has won himself a one year deal for next year.

    *Actually over 4.0 WAR if you include 2012, but those numbers were so BABIP driven that I discount them.

    Like

    1. If I counted correctly, the Phillies are now tied for the 10th/11th worst record in baseball. The Padres, with whom they are tied, has a worse record last year, so I believe they would own the 10th pick, with the Phillies owning the 11th. There were another 3 teams that were just 2 or 3 games better than the Phillies. So, with a mini-hot streak, we could approach the mid-teens.

      Like

Comments are closed.