Arizona Fall League Roster Discussion 2013

Weekly Discussion

Discussing Ken Giles today got me thinking about my assumptions for the Arizona Fall League roster. In total, the Phils need to send six “domestic” guys, (with an exception I’ll mention below), but they seem to typically send seven. Only one man from below A Ball can go to the AFL from any organization. The rule also states that any man not on a AA or AAA roster by August 1 counts and an A Baller.

So while I’d been assuming Giles would go to the AFL to get in some work after an abbreviated year, I think that is pretty unlikely. In order for him and Aaron Altherr to both go, one would have had to be promoted to AA by August 1, which obviously did not happen.  So now I’ll guess that they may just let Giles throw in instructs and then shut him down. Altherr makes the most sense in the AFL, as he’s up for a 40-man spot. Giles has one more year before than decision has to be made.

As someone mentioned the other day, Perci Garner now looks like an AFL candidate with a 40-man decision looming, but since he wasn’t above CLR by 8-1, he would also have to supplant Altherr. I’d call that unlikely. Garner seems more a candidate to pitch out of the bullpen in Venezuela or the Dom Rep league in the winter, or to be shut down before or after instructs, as he’s had a full year as a starter.

I still think Adam Morgan goes to the AFL as a starter, if the club truly believes he’s healthy. Beyond that, thanks to injuries, Austin Wright has some innings to work with this year. Brody Colvin fits the same bill, and he needs a 40-man spot this off-season to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Both guys also spent some time in the bullpen, so they’re likley well under their prescribed innings for the year. Mario Hollands might be in line for a spot here if he’s impressing anyone in the org with his work this year, as he’d need to be protected this off-season as well.

Aside from those, you have repeat AFL guys Tyler Knigge (who’d be vying for a 40-man spot), Jay Johnson and Kyle Simon, (both of whom have one more year until they need to be protected). Also involved there could be Justin Friend, who pitched internationally in winter 2012, and will be a Minor League FA this off-season.

For the field, I think Kelly Dugan is an easy pick. Also, perhaps an infielder like Albert Cartwright or Troy Hanzawa may be needed, depending on how toe roster shakes out with other orgs. If the Phils can manage to net themselves three outfield spots somehow, (depending on other orgs players), you could see repeat appearances from Gillies (AFL 2011) or Collier (2012), or possibly even a spot for Anthony Hewitt. As Tommy Joseph has been shut down, and DLed guys are not eligible, there is no chance he comes back. Cameron Rupp is certainly a candidate, if the org is willing to put more miles on his big body after a long season.

And here’s a darkhorse for you – since he’s from Panama, and they don’t participate in the Caribbean World Series, (the exception I mentioned above), Severino Gonzalez is eligible as an A Baller. He would also have to supplant Altherr, so likely that won’t happen, but it’s possible.

So here’s my guess – for the position players – Altherr, Dugan and Rupp. For the mound – Morgan, Wright and Colvin, plus I’ll guess Knigge, based on his contract situation. If Morgan doesn’t go, I would guess it’s Hollands.

So, what do you think? Anyone I’m missing who you think is a contender for one of these spots? Anyone you think makes more sense than my picks? Anyone you’d like to see just because?

35 thoughts on “Arizona Fall League Roster Discussion 2013”

  1. This article further supports my theory that the organization has no plan and seems ill prepared for minor league personnel moves.

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    1. I don’t really think the organization seems Perci Garner as a prospect at this point, or at least not one worth investing much in. Prospects don’t repeat High A at 24, and they don’t get double-jumped for spot starts. In that context, it makes sense for them not to have a “plan” for him, in the same way they don’t have a plan for, I dunno, Troy Hanzawa.

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      1. I disagree strongly, I think Garner has a likely future as a major league reliever. He was never expected to be a starter but, he has several very good pitches that could play well in the pen. However, I don’t think they’ll send a guy to AFL who has been starting all season.

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        1. Well, note I said “the organization seems,” not “I think.” What about the handling of Garner this season suggests the front office sees him as a future bullpen piece?

          I also think we as a collective group tend to overestimate the likelihood that a guy with a good arm becomes a quality big league reliever. If the past two seasons have taught us nothing else, surely it’s that there’s more to that job than throwing pretty hard.

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        2. Murray, why do you feel like missing out on AFL is a detriment to a guy like Garner? He’s gained a full season of reps at A+, and now a little experience at AAA (and maybe some also at AA, depending). A full season amongst a full compliment of your own coaches is hardly a bad thing. I don’t think that him going to AFL as a reliever is more valuable than finishing out the year as starter in AA or AAA.

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          1. Not a detriment at all, they’ve just never extended a starting pitcher’s season that long before. Garner has pitched all season without missing any starts I think. They don’t typically like those guys to keep throwing, they tend to take them to instructionals and work on a few things but then they shut them down. Its just a total innings thing.

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  2. I think Altherr and Dugan are definites. I think there is no chance at all, they send Adam Morgan. There is a chance they send Colvin, if they commit to movung him to the bullpen. the rest of the pitching spots will go to bullpen.

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  3. I think Giles will get sent because they want to get him more innings and also want to see him against better competition. However, if not, another name from A that might surprise is Harold Martinez. He has certainly stepped up his game after getting a chance to play every day and he could use more at bats (as could Perkins). One of theese guys will go. Morgan is a likely choice if he’s deemed healthy and Gillies too if they think he still has a possible future. Rupp could get called up in Sept and he wouldn’t do both so that will be interesting to watch. Another guy could be Susdorf if they are starting to think that maybe he can hit a little.

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  5. I know that I would be most interested to see Perkins, Altherr and Severino. Don’t think they are worried at all about leaving Colvin or Garner unprotected.

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    1. Altherr and Perkins can’t both go, because they are in A ball. I would bet a significant sum that if Perci Garner is left unprotected, he will be selected.

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      1. I know they all can’t go just saying who I’m most interested in seeing and I’ll take that bet your favorite cheese steak! But he has to stick with the team that picks him up?

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        1. I doubt seriously we will get a chance to bet that he is selected, because I think there is almost no chance they leave him unprotected.

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  6. Do major league teams send their prime minor league prospect starters to the AFL?
    Understand ones who had abbreviated summer season due to inji=uries, but normally I would think not.

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    1. It’s a mixed bag. I think they often send their top hitters but, understandably, don’t want their prime pitchers, who they are trying to protect, pitching for somebody else and subjecting them to overuse or other risks. Relief prospects are often sent, however, even good ones.

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    2. They do not, for the most part they are at their innings limits and teams feel they can always make up the last few inning in Instructional League under the team’s watchful eye.

      The exceptions are injuries and 2013 draftees

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      1. Like last year Cosart went to AFL because he missed a lot of time at AAA for Houston. That’s why I considered Morgan a possibility.

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  7. I would be a little surprised if the Phillies sent Rupp, largely because of the mileage issue you mentioned. I don’t think they really need to find out a lot about him, either. I can see them wanting to send all of Dugan, Altherr, Hewitt, but that won’t happen, so I’ll guess that Hewitt misses out. Colvin and Nesseth seem likely as pitchers. Of guys not mentioned, perhaps David Buchanon and Overbeck.

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    1. Well, scratch Colvin with a shoulder injury. We’ve had a lot of shoulder injuries with our pitchers across the organization this season. Elbows are a lot more understandable.

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    2. I would guess they’ve learned all they need to learn about Overbeck, personally. Buchanan is a possibility, but he’s pitched a lot of innings this year.

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    3. Rupp to relax and get ready to join the big club in ST. Enough games played in ’13. The FO must know all they need to know about him: a better than average defense and an offense that promises a .260-275 BA with 10-12 HRs and not frequently injured.
      Do not understand what they now see in Colvin–I’d be happy to see him go elsewhere.

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  8. Aaaannnd…Brody Colvin to the DL, per Mike Drago. So there goes that. Even if he comes off, guys fresh off the DL are excluded from AFL roster consideration.

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  9. does AFL experience translate into improved projections or is it just a filtering system to shake out dead wood.

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    1. Seeing what Jake Diekman did in AFL two years ago helped lead to him being protected (he may have been on that path anyway). Same last year with Zach Collier. I would guess there’s not much change in a guy’s projection, but in the perception thereof outside his own organization. But that’s just my speculation.

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  10. Dugan will go to get reps against better competition.
    Wright will go since he is now a reliever and could use more innings.
    Agree that Altherr is a logical choice for Phillies to learn more about him. I assume decision on him will be the same as last year on Collier — if Altherr does great he will be protected, if not no other teams will want to take him. [I would actually try to trade him before a roster decision is necessary for him but I guess most teams will just wait out the Phillies to decide on him.]
    Nesseth seems like good choice. Kyle Simon might be a good candidate since he showed something last year but not much this year. May want to get him more exposure to better hitters.
    I could see Edgar Duran as a middle infield prospect, he still has some value left. (Hanzawa would be just to reward him).
    Jay Johnson or Morgan could go as a lefty. Johnson has LOOGY potential and is still controlled. Morgan would be to get work in and try to showcase him. He would be rare ‘quality’ starter in AFL.

    If they do not send Altherr then I could see Giles as an option, to see how his FB plays in a hitters environment. Hollands would go if Phillies ‘need’ to send a non-Morgan SP. Knigge or Shreve as potential filler pitchers.

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    1. Duran would be ineligible since he’s from Venezuela. He’ll likely play in VZ in the offseason.

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  11. What about Jiwan James? Maybe he goes to get a few more at bats to help him continue to get back into things for next season.

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    1. No….example would be Colby Shreve who went 2 yrs in a row. I would bet Giles, Nesseth and Simon are going. Not sure on the others.

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