Prospect Spotlight: What to do about Zachary Green

Green, Zach

Zach Green has been one of the breakout prospects so far this year.  On the surface it is for good reason as he is tied for the NYPL lead in HRs, has a sizeable lead in SLG, and is 5th overall in OPS.  The problem is that while his power has shown up in a big way and the walk rate has improved from 4.4% to 8.8%, his strikeout rate has ballooned from 23.5% to 29%.  This leaves a conundrum, on one hand the 19 year old Green is pushing for a spot in the upper echelon of Phillies prospects, and on the other you are wondering if he is going to make it out of A ball.  The truth is somewhere in between and what you are left with after walking through the tool set is the potential for a very solid prospect that has a lot of development left to do if he wants to near that ceiling.

Hitting: Green’s ability to make contact is the biggest outstanding question about him.  The swing has gotten shorter since the GCL, but it has a tendency to lengthen at time.  He generates good backspin and loft without selling out for plane.  The bat speed is average and there a questions about how it will hold up against plus plus velocity, but it shouldn’t be a fatal flaw.  His approach isn’t terrible, but he has big problems with breaking balls.  Additionally, he is really streaky at the plate so he will go through stretches where he is more susceptible to breaking pitches.  The good news is that he has gotten much better but it is something he will need to improve on to get past the high minors.  Given all of the questions it is hard to see the hit tool playing anything more than average.

Power: Green has at least plus power, that is generated from strong forearms and overall strength in the frame.  His raw power is less than Larry Greene and Dylan Cozens but he has transitioned it well into his in-game swing.  Green’s hit tool should let the power play enough to hit 25-30HRs during his peak if he can solve his issues against breaking pitches.

Speed:  Green is already a below average runner and is likely only going to get slower over time.  This is not really that big a deal as he shouldn’t be a base clogger.  However, he is not going to be adding much in the running game nor will he be picking up a bunch of extra bases.

Glove:  Green was a SS in HS and the hands are soft and the actions are pretty good at third.  The footwork could use some cleaning up that should improve with more reps.  He also does not get great reads off the bat, but that is something to monitor if it does not improve by the time he reaches the upper minors.

Arm: Green’s arm is plus from third and the accuracy is pretty good.  There are still improvements to be made but it will definitely play at third base.

Overall: Green is a very interesting prospect, but a lot of the projection comes down to the hit tool.  If he can learn to handle breaking balls and clean up the defense he is a first division regular with a middle of the lineup bat and close to plus defense at third base.  However, the risk is high because if he can’t cut down on the strikeouts and deal with breaking pitches he is not going to make it past AA.  All this points to a player who is going to need time to really work on consistency and repetition, and will likely not be a quick mover through the system.  But he has made huge strides since signing and there is no pressure to come up and fill a need soon.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

25 thoughts on “Prospect Spotlight: What to do about Zachary Green”

  1. I thought it would be interesting to generate a list of players since 2005 who, like Zach Green, slugged over .500 for a full season in the NY-Penn league. Here it is, names, position and where they are now:
    2012 Jesus Solorzano, OF A SAL
    2012 David Washington, 1B NY-Penn
    2011 Travis Taijeron, OF AA
    2011 Dean Green, 1B A Midwest
    2011 Daniel Muno, SS AA
    2010 Cory Vaughn, OF AA
    2010 Marcell Ozuna, RF 60 games with MIA
    2010 Rylan Sandoval, SS A+ FSL
    2010 Ryan Fisher, 3B A+ FSL
    2010 David Anderson, 1B Out of Baseball
    2010 Darrell Ceciliani, CF AA
    2010 Jonathan Rodriguez, 1B A+
    2009 Neil Medchill, LF AA
    2009 J.D. Martinez, DH 78 games with HOU
    2009 Sebastian Valle, C AA
    2009 Sean Ochinko, C AAA
    2009 Deangelo Mack, RF Out of baseball
    2009 Leandro Castro, CF AAA
    2008 Miguel Fermin, C Got to AAA switched to pitching
    2008 Luis Sumoza, LF Out of Baseball
    2008 Phil Disher, 1B Out of Baseball
    2008 Ben Lasater, 3B AAA
    2007 Todd Martin, OF Out of Baseball
    2007 Damon Sublett, 2B AA
    2007 Casper Wells, OF 270 MLB games, now with PHI
    2005 Ryan Patterson, OF Out of baseball
    2005 Michael Hollimon, SS 23 MLB Games, out of baseball
    2005 Cory Patton, RF Out of Baseball
    2005 Nolan Reimold, OF 286 MLB games, now with BAL
    2005 Neil Sellers, 3B Out of baseball
    2005 Francisco Plasencia, OF Out of baseball

    So of 31 >.500 sluggers, 5 made it to the majors, and the two standouts are Casper Wells and Nolan Reimold.

    On the other hand, the player most comparable to Zach Green based on age is Marcell Ozuna, who figures to be a decent player if he gets past injuries. Most of the players on this list were 22 year old college players who mashed in NYPenn league but did worse at every level they rose.

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      1. Right, the only 19 year olds on the list are Green, Ozuna, and Valle. Only 3 20 year olds, Castro, Sumoza and Ceciliani. As though slugging was an older-player tool.

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  2. Age is crucial and a big thing in Green’s favor. Big, big difference for a 19-year old, vs a college kid, let alone a 22-yr old college kid to show that kind of power In NYP league. Every year, commenters on this forum rave on and on about some over-aged guy, frequently signed as a 4-yr or even a 5-yr college senior, is really mashing the ball. Usually the guy is a one-dimensional, slow, not-exceptional-on-D 1B. Here we have a kid, who actually projects to play 3B well, putting up those numbers with the bat. He sounds like the real deal. Perhaps not quite in Franco’s class, but not all that far behind.

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      1. Maybe a bit 😉

        Lot’s to be excited about, but dang, I always sweat the guys that lack the hit tool. He has a clue at the plate at least so there’s certainly more hope for him than a number of other project prospects we have.

        Let’s see what he does in full season ball before we get too high or too low.

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      2. Let’s just settle for ‘maybe the next Franco’. I’d be thrilled to come up with another Scott Rolen out of one of our 3B prospects, but even that is asking too much.

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  3. Here we go again:
    Will Middlebrooks-age19, NYPL:
    PAs-226, K-32%, BB-5%, HR-1, slash—BA.254 /OBP.298 /SLG.368 /OPS.666

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    1. I don’t like the comp. He’s a guy whose stats improved each year as he moved up a level. Then he sort of crashed this season after a good rookie year in the bigs.

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  4. Power hitter with little else. Generally fits the ‘normal’ 3B profile. Going to be a long time before he might make the majors but he was a relatively high draft pick so at least his success should not be a surprise.

    Is there anyone is the Phillies organization who walks at a high rate?

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  5. My biggest question is if the increased walk rate is due to his ability to lay off breaking balls. The writeup from Matt was pretty clear that he’s having a hard time actually making contact with off-speed pitches, but if he’s at least starting to recognize breaking balls and is laying off, that’s at least encouraging.

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  6. All good stuff and info on green, just remember – this is only his 2nd year of pro ball, he is only 19 years old, the hit toll will improve with more experience, the more pro at bats you get /the more you see the sliders down and away, the easier it will get. He is at least 6′ 3″ tall. He is 210 pounds. His frame profiles perfectly for 3rd base. He hands are soft, he has a plus arm and his power numbers are leading almost every power category . Home runs, doubles, slugging, total bases and top 5 in RBI’s . Let’s all stay positive and patient. The Phil’s have an everyday big leaguer here. He is baseball rat who loves the game and has plus baseball makeup. Just give the kid some time and don’t focus so much on the strikeouts. He has shown that he will take a walk once in a while and he has batted over .250 for the entire season, was over .270 until recently. Probably getting a little tired. Went to conn. for all star game last Monday , won home run derby, played the game tues and was back batting cleanup for Williamsport the very next day. And his defense has really improved. Made a highlight real play to save the recent no hitter for the cutters the othe day. Question is. Where does he play next year. Lakewood or Clearwater. A very good article on greeny, enjoyed it very much !!!!!!!!

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    1. Definitely LWood next year with Walding moving up to CWater. I think Green looks like a terrific prospect with loads of potential. Having a 19 yr old kid a year out of high school who has trouble with good breaking balls is only a problem if there’s no improvement. The power guys especially grow up feasting on fastballs. They have to learn how to shorten their swing and to expect different pitches in different counts. Green is definitely learning and improving and his defense is improving as well.

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  7. Green is a lottery ticket in my eyes. The hit tool doesn’t always improve as you move up levels. Sometimes the weaknesses are more exposed. I’ll wait to see what he does in Lakewood. Here is a question for anyone that has seen him play does he hit anything hard the other way or is he a dead pull hitter?

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    1. I’ve seen him play in one game this year, so clearly I am an expert. In the game, he made the normal plays at third, but did have a very slow reaction on a ball hit to his left that he dove for and missed. Seems like a good read off of the bat and he would’ve had it. He also hit a home run in the game on a pitch that I didn’t think he made good contact with at all, and it cleared the left-centerfield wall with ease.

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  8. I saw him hit during ST. In one game he smoked a double to left center. The next day he hit one HR to LF and then followed it up with another to RF. I believe I saw someone post an article on here that Mitch Rupert did on him and Rupert said he definitely had power and ability to hit to all fields.

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  9. He hits to all fields , a few home runs to straight away CF and a couple to right field. Not many weaknesses forms young kid like I stated above. Stay with the kid and start looking at all the positives.

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  10. First of Matt, thanks for this article. I love the in depth scouting and analysis. There was one sentence that rubbed me the wrong way:

    “This leaves a conundrum, on one hand the 19 year old Green is pushing for a spot in the upper echelon of Phillies prospects, and on the other you are wondering if he is going to make it out of A ball.”

    To me this is a product of some on this site to put too much importance on whether a prospect is the #5 prospect or the #15 prospect. Where he is on the lists isn’t important but the fact that he is a high risk/high reward prospect with all the information in the actual scouting report.

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  11. We obviously rate differently than the Phillies do. They only care about the potential ceiling of these kids. Green’s ceiling is very high.

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