For a minute today, I almost thought Roger Bernadina would be a better option that Casper Wells. But then I remembered that they are both terrible, terrible options.
Discuss.
133 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 8-19-2013 – Casper Wells Starting Right Fielder Edition”
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Phuture Phillies 
I’d rather have myself play right field.
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Me too.
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how about steve susdorf, one of our own players and one that can actually hit and is practically free
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This is strange, because I thought he was acquired because the Phillies thought he could be a plus defensive guy in CF. Mayberry can play CF, but is hardly plus there.
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Mayberry is a terrible centerfielder, I have seen him make at least 5 misjudge fly balls, and he cant throw at all, misses cutoffs, terrible centerfielder, its not his fault he isnt really a center fielder ,
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I doubt that the Phllies front office holds/held the miconception that this guy can either hit of play adequate centerfield. It doesn’t seem to bother the Phillies that when Revere was hurt with Galvis in LV they had/have no one who can begin to play centerfield at anything remotely like major league sufficiency. For that matter, it doesn’t seem to be a matter of concern anywhere: yesterday at the key defensive position of shortstop against the hottest team in baseball & currently the best pitcher in the game, they not only had Rollins on the bench but instead had that ricidiculous clone of Charlie Chaplin, Pathos Martines, on the field instead…to misplay his first two chances, the second dgiving the Dodgers their second run, giving Hamels another non-decision.
Don’t just despair from looking at Wells’ miserable performance this year,,,or even his career minor league average below .250; take a close look at his sminor league record…only an organization at devoid of hitting talent at Detroit four, five years ago would have tried to promote him every year…without regard to his sub-sufficient play at the level where he was.
Wells is not just a move that elevates eyebrows. It indicates an autopsy is on the agenda soon for one or more gurus in the Phillies front-office.
There is so much drek in the Phillies clubhouse now that you have to wonder if they will stop aqding more only when they can’t stuff another stiff in and still close the door—Martinez, Wells, Delmon Young, Mayberry, McDonald, Valdez, Rosenberg, Garcia, th e list goes on as long as the non-ending pasta at Olive Garden…
Simple question: Before the Nationals could claim centerfielder De Jesus from the Cubs today, the Phillies had to pass over him on the waiver list: yes, I know he will be a free agent at the end of the season, but he would also be a better alternative than what the Phillies have now or will have next Spring as a back-up to Revere and a better option in RF than anyone in the system—so why wouldn’t Amaro put in the claim for a solid veteran they urgently need?
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They really want a protected pick. Bench jimmy and bring up Galvis.
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With the way Jimmy has been playing the last month that would probably be an upgrade both offensively and defensively and make the Phillies more likely to win games.
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The danger of losing the protected pick is small and getting smaller by the week. We are nearing the point where our 2nd round pick is approaching the quality of the first rounders we had for years and we should be reluctant to lose it by signing a FA requiring comp.
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Its going to take a miracle for us to fall out of the top 10. I think we will be ok
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I don’t know your definition of miracle, but there are three teams that are only two games better than the Phillies sitting in the 11, 12 and 13 positions. All it takes is the Phillies to go on a little run and one of those teams to go into the crapper and they’ve traded places.
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Phillies play the majority of the remaining games vs below .500 teams…they win those games normally. So looks like a 12 or 13 pick in 2014.
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I did some analysis over the weekend that got buried deep in a discussion thread, but I think it is worth re-posting. Over the last 10 years in the Eastern League there have been 16 players who were either 19, 20 or 21 and were in the top 20 in OPS. If you exclude the 21 yo players, it is only 7, but let’s include them for argument stake. Here are their stats and an opinion on MLB quality:
Year Name Age PA ISO K% BB% MLB Quality
2009 Jesus Montero 19 181 0.169 11.6% 7.7% Too Early
2012 Wilmer Flores 20 275 0.133 10.9% 7.3% Too Early
2012 Oswaldo Arcia 21 299 0.159 20.7% 9.4% Too Early
2003 Grady Sizemore 20 559 0.107 13.1% 8.2% Potential Star but injured
2008 Pablo Sandoval 21 184 0.185 10.9% 4.3% All Star
2005 Ryan Zimmerman 20 252 0.157 13.5% 6.0% Star Player
2003 Joe Mauer 20 310 0.053 8.1% 8.1% Star Player
2004 David Wright 21 272 0.152 15.1% 14.3% Star Player
2004 Robinson Cano 21 323 0.141 12.4% 7.4% Star Player
2005 Dustin Pedroia 21 298 0.099 8.7% 11.4% Star Player
2003 Dioner Navarro 19 233 0.083 11.2% 7.7% Bust
2005 Lastings Milledge 20 214 0.095 22.0% 6.5% Bust
2003 Guillermo Quiroz 21 434 0.146 19.1% 10.4% Bust
2003 Victor Diaz 21 187 0.138 17.1% 4.3% Bust
2006 Eric Duncan 21 242 0.13 15.7% 13.2% Bust
2004 Justin Huber 21 295 0.073 19.3% 15.6% Bust
A few things jump out:
1. 5 of the 7 players that are Star players or All Stars had a walk rate lower than 8.3%
2. Only Pedroia and Mauer had a K rate lower than 10%
3. None of these players had an ISO at Franco’s level at a similar sample size. Sandoval’s is closest
4. The K% for the busts averaged 17.9% and for the stars 11.4%
5. The walk rate for the busts averaged 9.6% and for the stars 8.6%. That’s right, the busts had a higher walk rate than the stars.
The point that I am making with this limited analysis is that a 20 year old who hits for a high ISO and a low k% in AA is very, very rare. While there is no guarantee of success in the future, there are zero examples in the last 10 years of the Eastern League of players that meet that criteria and were not stars. Further, while we focus a lot on walk rate, that does not seem to have a high correlation, and actually has a negative correlation in this sample (not saying walks are bad, so don’t go there). Finally, when analyzing prospects that get a lot of scout love, be wary of guys with a massive strikeout rate. The guy that jumps out to me is Miguel Sano. He has had a 26%+ K rate every year (including Rookie ball). Those guys scare me a lot. I would bet that Sano turns out to be a bust or at best, Dan Ugla.
I know a lot of guys (Matt included) think that I am plain wrong and over simplifying my analysis. That may be true. I am not a scout. I am just a fan..and I look for patterns. And I have been watching minor league baseball a long time. And the most significant pattern that I see for hitters is around K rates. IMO there is no better gauge of a hitter’s projectability.
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I am going to just say for the last time that I think Franco’s K% and BB% are not indicative of the player he is and that their current levels indicate a bad trend in his approach. Sandoval is likely your best comp up there and he is a really good player but not a star (his one huge WAR year was due to what looks like fluky defensive numbers). I also think you are generalizing the type of player you are looking for and ignoring the profile that got you there.
I would be interested to see how many AA players with BB rates under 4% became decent major league players.
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Player 1: 3.2 BB% / 7.3 K% in 220 PAs
Player 2: 3.0 BB% / 23.8 K% in 164 PAs
I’m not saying Franco’s approach is great, but maybe we shouldn’t focus so much on his walk rate in a relatively small sample in AA.
Based on the larger picture (career BB%, age, underlying talent), I think there’s reason to expect Franco to improve his approach with time.
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Again, very impressive data accumulation and analysis. You are certinaly bucking all the reputable pundits when you imply that Franco’s potential and ceiling might very well surpass Miguel Sano, primarilly based on each’s comparative MiLB K rates.
Nevertheless, I hold out hope that Franco does become the next best third baseman in Phillies history.
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I’m not convinced that Sano can stay at 3B. He’s got the arm, but he really doesn’t field ground balls all that well.
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Steven,,
I’ve been away for two days, and so I haven’t really had time to participate in this exchange. Perhaps that’s for the best. And on my return I am quite busy.
But I do have a few quick thoughts. I apologize in advance for not having the time or the energy to develop these points further or (most likely) to follow-up further.
(1) The very first thought that I have is that the list provides massive support for everything that Matt, myself, scouts, experts, and, well, almost everything that people have been saying over the past few weeks. We LIKE Franco. The caution isn’t that he’s not likely to make it, or even that he’s not going to be a star, but (a) that stardom isn’t guaranteed, and (b) that it might take some time for him to realize his potential. It seems that several names on that list (the “too early to tell” and the” busts”) prove both of those points. If anything, the list suggests that maybe people like Matt and myself AREN’T CAUTIOUS ENOUGH about Franco.
(2) The BB percentages especially show that some caution is necessary. The “5 of the 7 players that are Star players or All Stars had a walk rate lower than 8.3%” is telling but not in the way that you think. There is a heck of a big distance between 8.3% and 3.2%. The lowest of the “stars” – Sandoval – had a BB rate of 4.3%. 4.3% is better than 3.2%. When you get into the realm of a below 5.0% BB rate, “small” differences can be quite significant. And the next lowest player on the list (among the “stars”) had a rate almost double Franco’s.
It’s like creating a list of player’s batting averages, saying that “well half of the future stars had batting averages under .280” as a way of saying that a guy with a .200 BA was just fine.
This point is just very important. When Franco had a BB rate of 6.9% in A+, no one saw it a big red flag. That’s on the low side, but (assuming other skills make up for it) perfectly consistent with major league success, even at an all star level. There is simply a huge difference between 6.9% and 3.2%.
There’s a LOT more that could be said about your analysis of the BB %s, but alas time does not permit more.
Remember also, no one is saying the low BB rate precludes success (though it would if he doesn’t improve it). We’re saying it is a concern. And it is.
(3) The “stars” were guys who the scouts liked a lot. Relevant only to the extent that the list is entirely irrelevant to one of the central issue here, i.e., cases where the scouting reports are somewhat at variance with the numbers. (I say somewhat, because the hideous BB rate is consistent with one of those doubts.)
My final thought is this – being away from this for a couple of days has made me realize the extent to which you haven’t really put up your own predictions. Now, admitting that there are other gradations here, I see two basic possibilities:
(1) You’re saying that it is virtually guaranteed that Franco will be a star. In which case, the evidence going the other way – including your own research – clearly refutes your opinion.
(2) You’re saying that he may be a star, he may be a decent player, he may be a bust. (With perhaps a higher chance of the first than the third.) And if stardom happens, it may take him a while before it does. If THAT’S what you’re saying, then you’re right, but you’re also not saying anything different than what Matt or myself (or the scouts, or the experts) have been saying.
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Franco did have a 6.9 BB% in Clearwater. His career rate is 6.7%. I think that’s a more reasonable baseline for projecting his future walk rate than 220 PAs in Reading.
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His BB% has decreased from his 2011 rate over the last two years. I agree that I think he will be able to end up near the Clearwater BB % but, it’s not a given and he’s been trending downwards.
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because he is destroying everything coming at him in the form of a baseball.
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If you look at the most successful hitters, when they are “destroying everything coming at [them] in the form of a baseball,” their BB% goes up, not down.
Of course, as others have pointed out, lately he has not been hitting all that well, yet his BB% has stayed very low. For me, THAT’S the real red flag.
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See, this comment makes me think that somehow – maybe it’s our fault, maybe it’s not – we’re just not communicating.
Let me say this as clearly as I can: IF we thought that his AA rate was a predictor of his major league rate, we would dismiss him as any kind of prospect entirely. And properly so. But we’re not doing that – we still like him a lot as a prospect. We agree that there is a good chance that his career rate represents a “true” estimate of his ability. That doesn’t mean we ignore entirely the bad rate in AA. It is suggestive of a deterioration in approach (BB rates normalize fairly quickly) which is fixable, but which needs to be fixed.
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would u be taking walks when they can’t get u out? I don’t think so. His BB% will sit close to 7% when his hot streak is over.
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As I posted, his hot streak is over and his BB rate for August if 4%. He has been slumping for the past about 3 weeks.
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.316 / .346 / .474 in his last 10.
He had a very cold stretch a few weeks ago, but his last week or so has been better (albeit nothing like his crazy June/early July stretch).
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“would u be taking walks when they can’t get u out?”
For a minor league player, whose goal is not to win games, but rather to develop his skills to the point that he is a successful major league player, yes, OF COURSE I would be taking walks even if I was hitting the ball extraordinarily well. The point is to develop habits that will serve you well as a major league player. Swinging at everything against AA pitching, for a skilled player (and no one denies that he is that) can lead to success. Swinging at everything against major league pitching can not.
Can he fix his approach? Yes, as even those of us concerned about the extraordinarily low BB rate have been saying. Some of us would simply like to actually SEE the improved approach before projecting him to be a star., Especially now that his hitting cooled off significantly.
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I think Larry is about to have an aneurysm.
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Larry I think your following the wrong org if you think anyone from the phils will tell him to stop swinging during a hot streak. Remember our gm wants production not hig obp
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I’ll jump in with a question.. Franco has a low BB% and low K%, so he is obviously putting his bat on a lot of balls
I’m still learning, but to me, that means you can argue this either way..
either:
a) his ability to make contact will go down in the majors, and if he can’t discern what a ball is, he will struggle
b) he wont make as much contact, but has some wiggle room.. even if his average dips, he still would be pretty good
c) maybe he is swinging at everything because he can hit everything.. so hard to know how he’ll do or what his eye will be when he can’t make contact.. maybe he’ll adapt and learn which pitches to lay off of
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It seems like Franco is currently very good at making contact, however not all contact is good contact. Some think his current approach coupled with his questionable swing mechanics might prevent him from achieving a lot in the majors until he fixes it. Others believe that the swing may not necessarily be a problem but the approach is limiting his power because he is swinging at everything and not always making good contact. Matt showed how his ISO has trended down every month in Reading and in the latest month is only .111 or something like that. That does not represent a lot of power.
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The good news is that Franco’s walk rate has progressively improved slightly month-to-month at Reading. The bad news is that the OPS has come crashing down month-to-month. August is an OPS of .644 and a BB rate of 4%. In June he had a walk rate of just 2%, but an OPS of 1.109. July was in between for walks and OPS. So, after a fast start in June, in which he hit everything he swung at and had great BABIP, both the OPS and BB rate are normalizing. His K rate has been impressively low throughout. He K’d a lot more at CLW than at Reading.
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Another point is that Reading overall has a very low BB%, and many players arrive there and see a big drop in their BB%. I suspect the coaching there that emphasizes aggression.
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That may well be true. I’m not sure that is, at the end of the day, a point in favor his his chances of stardom.
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Oh, and in at least one case – Montero, the only one I checked – the data you list is flat out wrong (his ISO was .222). Makes me wish I had time to go back and look at the other ones.
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Just to be clear, I’m NOT accusing you of doing this intentionally. But (and now I’ve looked at a couple others), you are somehow significantly and consistently understating these guys’ ISOs. Here’s what I have so far:
Montero .222
Zimmerman .202
Arcia .229
Sandoval .212
Franco, of course is currently at .198.
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Still not sure where you went wrong calculating the ISO, though it’s looking like something systematic. It’s (TB-H)/AB. Or SLG-BA. (Which is the same thing).
(TB/AB)-(H/AB)=(TB-H)/AB
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Re-reading your post, I have two additional points, one sort of positive, one negative:
(1) Certainly you have a point about K rate, but: (a) that is, in large measure,, WHY people, Matt and myself included, are as high on him as we are. Remember, he is now a consensus top 50 prospect. His contact skills are a big part of the reason for that. (b) That rate is in a relatively SSS and his prior rates were significantly higher. Still quite good, but it would be folly to ignore the prior data and rely on just the AA K rate. (And yes, as I acknowledged in another comment, that applies to the BB rate as well, but THAT’S WHY we’re still relatively high on Franco, despite the absurdly low AA BB rate.
(2) Your claim that “there are zero examples in the last 10 years of the Eastern League of players that meet that criteria and were not stars” is misleading at best. The fact is, the only star on that list who is vaguely comparable Franco is Sandoval. That’s a sample size on one – and even there, as stated, his BB rate was higher than Franco’s. All of the other “future stars” guys had BB rates so much higher that it isn’t reasonable to use their (far more successful) AA seasons as a basis of comparison. (You’re also ignoring Montero, he of the far better AA season as a 19 YO. Even assuming that it’s “too early” to tell if he will be a star, that literally contradicts your statement. My own belief is that he almost certainly will NOT be a star.)
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I honestly don’t have any idea what the debate is, on either side. Steve is saying the numbers suggest that he’s got a real good chance of being a real good player. Matt and others are saying he’s got a couple red flags that may indicate he has more problems that his age and OPS would initially let on. These are not mutually exclusive things. I think he’s our best prospect at this point, with arguments to be made for Biddle and Crawford. I think he’s got a bit more downward range in terms of floors than true top-of-the-heap prospects, but he clearly has a great ability to barrel up a ball, and over the fence power to go with it. Provided he can be an average defender, it really comes down to how many pitcher’s pitches can he lay off. He’s got a lot of time to work on that.
With that said, I just wonder, if they’d left him in A ball, and his walk rate maintained at 7%, his OPS at .930, no KLaw ABS scouting report, etc…. what would we have filled the time to talk about? Frankly this may have saved us the utterly inane debate about Cody Overbeck’s big league potential…
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Yeah, I think that’s right. It will be interesting to see what Steven says regarding my question about what HIS prediction is. But re-reading his comment, I think he isn’t saying that – he’s saying that anything short of stardom is highly unlikely. (Steven, if I am wrong about your opinion please correct me)
I don’t think the data he presents (or any data) support that proposition, if in fact that’s what he thinks.
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Hi Original Will
I am saying a few things:
1. I believe, stronger than most, that Franco will be a star. I would NEVER suggest any prediction is a guarantee. Anything can happen. Injuries or the kid could get into drugs. Heck, he could be on HGH now and we not know it. And I certainly have no idea what the future will hold. But ceteris paribus, Franco is an Elite prospect IMO. If Sano is a top prospect, then Franco is higher. I don’t know who he best comps to. But I think he compares very favorably to that list above. And I think that his production at his age is VERY, VERY rare. If I had to make a prediction, I think we are looking at a guy who will OPS .850+ with 35+ HR power when he is a grown man.
2. I am saying that IMO, K rate is far more of a predictor of future success than bb%.
3. I am saying that I think scouts are paid to find flaws, and we read way to much into scouting reports. Every player has flaws.
4. I am saying there are a few things in each sport that you can’t teach. You can’t teach height or coordination in basketball. In baseball, you can’t teach bat speed and hand-eye coordination.
5. I am saying that I think that the concerns about Franco are overblown. I think this is a simple game. See ball – hit ball. The elite players have great hand-eye coordination and bat speed. Those two skills make up for a lot of ills. And the greatest predictor of those skills is low k rate. Franco’s K rate is unbelievably low.
6. I am saying that Miguel Sano is going to be a bust
7. I am saying that LarryM needs to chill out a bit. Stop making his posts so personal. I am just making a counter argument.
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Well, it’s fair to say that some of what you are “saying” is defensible, some of what you are “saying” is presumptuous, and some of what you are “saying” is asinine, but mostly what you are “saying” is that you have your own opinions and methodology that you have theorized about, and as long as you understand that a substantial of what we postulate (or, are “saying”) is wrong, or at best, not terribly insightful, than we can all get along.
That’s not to say I wouldn’t posit the same thing about your detractors (or myself). Most people think they are right far more than they actually are, and are far more passionate about it than they ever really should be.
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Good Lord! I agree that there is reason for optimism about Franco, but to predict that Sano will be a bust is a very strange prediction. He has put in a better AA with the stick than Franco. He certainly Ks a lot more than Franco, but he also walks a lot more and has kept his OPS up every month in AA. The power you want Franco to develop, Sano has already got. I take Sano’s bat, especially for power, over Franco, but I’ll take Franco’s glove over Sano’s. Arm advantage goes to Sano.
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Steven, with one – one – arguable exception, there’s nothing personal at all about what I’m saying to you on the topic. I’m doing what you’re doing – disagreeing with your analysis.
The one arguable exception is the fact that I (and others) have pointed out that you had been, before now, writing the same almost substance free post every day, and that that was getting annoying. Define that as “personal” if you like, but I think it was a fair criticism with which many others agreed.*
And your response to that criticism was, to your credit, to try to add some substance to your posts. Good for you. But of course that’s going to invite responses and disagreement, just as you are disagreeing with other people’s analysis. I don’t think your data really supports your argument – that’s not personal, just my opinion.
On the substance, I will mainly fall back on my prior statement about current lack of time, to respond and also refer above to other responses which were not responded to by you. But one more comment for now. Ironically, in contrast to many other posters on this site who minimize the importance of contact skills, I DO recognize the importance of same. Where I think you go wrong on that point is on putting too much weight on the AA numbers. His career minor league K % is over 14%; even his A+ rate was 13.5%. That’s quite good, but not “unbelievably low.” If you’re going to somewhat discount the BB% on a SS basis (and, in order to have the opinion that you have, you have to do that, because otherwise is a HUGE red flag, as even your own comps should tell you), then you also have to somewhat discount the K rate.
*And no, my comment about your data errors was not “personal” – just correcting the record, and making clear that I’m sure it was an honest mistake.
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I am going to say one more thing about Sano. Set aside the defensive comparison for a second; I don’t have a dog in that hunt. But on offense, a couple of points:
(1) Sano has, to date, demonstrated much more power. I’m not the first person to point this out, but let’s put some numbers out there:
Sano 2013: 31 HR, .327 ISO.
Sano AA: 15 HR, .330 ISO.
Franco 2013: 25 HR, .239 ISO.
Franco AA:9 HR, .191 ISO.
That’s a significant edge to Sano (and of course a much larger edge in past seasons, which deserves at least some weight). (The edge in ISO is much greater than the edge in HR, because Franco has a lot more AB.)
(2) BB – I’m not going to go round and round on this, but even if we disagree on the weight to be placed on this, I don’t think you’re saying – I hope you’re not saying, else I’ve been wasting my time on a dialog – that BB% is irrelevant. And Sano’s BB rate is 4 times as high as Franco’s in AA, and three times as high for the year as a whole.
(3) Against those edges to Sano weigh K%. I’m not dismissing that at all, but Sano’s rate is not in the realm that justifies your dismissive attitude toward him, and Franco’s AA rate is almost certainly not his true rate. I’m not saying that it’s absurd to rate Franco higher – but the notion that the K rate alone (Franco’s only meaningful edge as a hitter) is enough not only to outweigh Sano’s power and plate discipline advantages – a reasonable proposition even if I disagree with it – but is SO much of an edge that Franco is highly likely to be a star while Sano is “going to be a bust” … well, I’m sorry, that’s absurd. It’s reasonable to argue that Franco is a better prospect, it is not reasonable to argue that the gap is that large.
Sano in AA has a small edge in wRC+ (146 to 143). That’s not by any means the be all and end all, but (a) it belies your belief that Franco is a MUCH better prospect, and (b) Sano has the edge even though he appears to have had some very bad BIP luck.
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This has nothing to do with Wells, but what would you think of trying to acquire Ryan Lavarnway from Boston and let him play next year and see what he can do? I don’t see many better options and I don’t think it would take that much to get him. Thoughts?
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2012/11/12/3634506/red-sox-rumors-boston-shopping-saltalamacchia-lavarnway
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My thought is that the Phillies should be taking Sixers approach and come to realization that high draft slots (over multiple years) is your way out of this mess.
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You really don’t want to do that in baseball though. Even #1 picks take 3-5 years to reach the majors, and one player won’t transform your team the way a single basketball player can.
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That’s why you take Michael Conforto in the draft and not a HS kid.
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I really enjoy comparing building a baseball team and basketball team
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That’s also how you build a baseball team. That’s how the Phillies championship team was built. The Phillies current fade is due largely to lost draft picks, low spending on farm.
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But look what he was responding to – the “let’s tank for draft picks” comment. And basketball and baseball are, indeed, WORLDS apart on that front. I am pretty sure, based upon prior comments from you, that you recognize that.
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Um, actually, the Phillies championship team was not built with a foundation of high draft picks due to years of tanking. You might be thinking of the Nats. Oh wait, they haven’t won a championship.
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Utley and Hamels were mid 1st round picks. Howard was a 5th round pick. Rollins a 2nd round pick. Burrell was the 1st overall pick. Myers was the 12th pick. I’d say it’s less about tanking and more about making the picks you have count.
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Garner in AAA? How the hell did i miss that news. Challenge because of his age or just needed for a game or two? Does he stay in AAA and move to BP or does still look like a guy who should start?
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my guess is he goes to Reading once it gets settled… however he looked perfectly fine tonight. Throwing 2 breaking balls a slider and that power curve… spotted his change up. Fastball was average though and the delivery isnt very athletic but there nothing wrong with it.
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What is Darin Ruf’s future at this point?
I am surprised he has performed as well as he has. His AAA season was unispiring, not bad, but barely deserving of a promotion. But he gets called up and is putting up some really good numbers, again with small sample size.
I still do not trust him with a full time gig and would go an get a quality corner RH OF to plug in the middle of the lineup (the search continues!). Once again leave Ruf in the minors for an inevitable 2014 callup. I still like Mayberry for what he is, cheap platoon OF. But if he is with the Phillies as a backup and Ruf is not a starter than I think the bench needs a lefty power bat.
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My feeling is that Ruf can/will be a good platoon bat. Some on this site will say that there is no such thing as a platoon because there are far more pitchers who are righties. therefore, he’ll only bat 25 percent of the time. That makes him a quarter of a player. Not useless but certainly an issue. Now if you say that Howard and Ruf will platoon and can hit a combined 40 HRs and knock in 120 runs, I’ll take it. He can play the OF once in a while and create some flexibility. He won’t get 600 ABs but 300 or 350 might be acceptable. Maybe Ruf can help Howard become at least half a player. I Know… i know… what about the money they’re paying Howard? The money on Howard is sunk cost. Live with it and figure out how to make the team better.
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He’s made big gains from a year ago, in terms of showing he can spot start enough in the outfield to get the ABs needed to stay effective as a Platoon player, plus he’d get into plenty of games late as a pinch hitter. 40 HR sounds a little overly optimistic to me, but they should slug pretty well overall.
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In 2012 Phillies plated 72% of the time vs righthanded pitchers.
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I would agree that Ruf is at minimum, a platoon player that can spell Howard at first against lefties, and then also fill in in the outfield. I don’t know if I would have the total warm and fuzzies with him getting full time action – he K’s about a third of the time, but assuming he does not tank the test of this season, I see him getting substantial time next year. He offers a right handed power hitting bat – something that the roster needs.
I looked at his MLB stats, and was surprised to see that his stats against righties are actually better than against lefties (small sample size, especially against lefties).
This stat is from early July – so a bit dated, but still largely accurate: Since 2011, Howard has a .596 OPS against lefties. That ranks 222d of 233 hitters with at least 250 plate appearances against them. His splits are more pronounced in 2013 than ever. He is hitting .302 with an .878 OPS against righties. That drops to .169 with a .503 OPS vs. lefties
Granted, some of the struggles can be attributes to injuries, but 3 seasons is 3 seasons. I think the Phillies need to address this, and a platoon with Howard would be a step in this process.
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I think his bat will play in the outfield. ZIPS projects him to hit .257 / .332 / .436 the rest of the way.
I expect he will be our starting right fielder next year.
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I think it’s time that we acknowledge that there is a good chance that Ruf will have a regular corner OF spot (hopefully LF with Brown in right) next year, and that it might even be a good thing.
As a hitter, his BA has predictably regressed, but he continues to hit with power and get a lot of BB. If maintainable (yes, there are still reasonable doubts on that count), that;s a very powerful combination even with the high K rate. As a hitter … well, put it this, on performance alone, if he had the AB to qualify, he would at this point be tied for third among all major league outfielders in wRC+. (With two other players without enough PA to qualify also in front of him, so say tied for 5th if you like. And, yes, SSS. But still.)
In the field, subjective and objective measures seem to suggest that maybe he can be adequate after all. It’s here, rather than the hitting (where I’ve been bullish for a long time) that he is overcoming my skepticism.
Let’s take the ZIPs projection for the rest of the season, which may still be a bit conservative in terms of BB rate and probably is somewhat conservative in terms of HR rate (and is definitely conservative in terms of playing time). He would still end up with a .265/.358.486 line for the season as a whole. There’s no corner OF currently in the organization, and few free agents, who are going to better that.
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allentown…Franco is slumping? Really? In his last 10 games, counting tonight’s DHer, he is hitting .342 with .366/579/.945 numbers. If that is slumping, give me more slumpers like that. Honestly, this debate about just how good or not so good that Franco is or will become gets more than a bit tiresome. Can we not for even one day simply enjoy the performances of probably the best 20 year old performer the Phils have had since maybe Scott Rolen?
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We absolutely could do that without the daily post from Steven implying that it is a kind of dire insult to suggest that Franco has things to work on and isn’t (almost) guaranteed to be a star. If he has gotten this out of his system – if he can simply agree to disagree – then we can all go back to simply enjoying his performance. If not, not.
I would say that 99.99999999999999999999999999% of the discussion on this topic is in response to Steven and a couple of other people’s posts. No one – no one – is bring the “negative” stuff up, except for in response to Steven and others making similar points.
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let it go. Steve is free to post his opinion. He isn’t being obnoxious about it..rather he is presenting a good case for Franco potentially being a star in MLB. There isn’t one shred of evidence to prove him wrong yet so just let him enjoy a player he is obviously emotionally invested in.
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Short answer: no. Well, a qualified no. Despite my posting activity in the past hour or so, I really may be too busy to keep this up.
Longer answer: you’re asking ME to let it go? He’s the guy who posts EVERY DAY on the topic – not in response to others, which would be understandable.. He;s free to post his opinion, and I’m just as free to respond to it. Which, time permitting, I will continue to do so.
Look, I don’t really think I’ve been nasty to Steve. I have expressed annoyance at the fact that he feels the need to post his opinion on the point EVERY DAY. Otherwise I have disagreed (but disagreed respectfully) with his opinion.
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your making it your agenda to counter his Franco postings every time. Its not necessary.
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Seriously , why is Wells even playing ?
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because they are collectively confused at moment. Why did Amaro fire Manuel on Thursday instead of Friday? dots aren’t connecting at moment. This team needs off-season to start yesterday so they can regroup.
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My opinion with no stats to back it up, Amaro in his own stupid way, fired charlie to take some pressure off him. I really believe he is hoping they start winning under sandberg so it looks like charlie fault, which is stupid, I thought that I heard one of the announcer say during last nights eight inning, you need to have faith in him in that situation or something like that., when diekman struck out the last batter, maybe i was dreaming,
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It also means Ruben is on probabtion now.
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Wells? Pathetic!
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When the Phils picked him up, i went to the stats. I tried to figure out how a guy with pretty sad Minor league stats actually got a chance to be a major leaguer. I don’t need to go over those. The best that can be said is he has/had a little thunder in his bat. If he was the best available, then there have to be 5 guys in the Phil’s minor leagues that I’d take over him. I’d use Hewitt in a heart beat before I’d use Casper. I looked long and hard to see what other organizations saw, as well as, the Phils. I’m not sure, if he was eligible for our top 30, he’d even be #45. I kept looking for the intangible that I somehow missed. Couldn’t find it. Someone suggest using Susdorf, I’m okay with that. Mitchell, Gillies, Hewitt, Collier even. I know you’re looking for a CF’er. I’m hoping some baseball guy sees something that none of us can see and might be able to flick the on switch. If we have that guy in the organization, let’s get him to Reading to work on Hewitt or Collier.
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JP Crawford 2-7 for Lakewood tonight
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A BB and SB last night too. Not bad for a debut night
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Promote him to CLW while he is stiill hot!
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This site, along with the other philly sports blogs, need to start a Fire Ruben website, and organize formal protests that will convince ownership to go Sam Hinkie on the Phils starting this offseason. Who is up forthe challenge?
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Don’t you have better things to do with your time?
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Get a screen name
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Wake up call. If you are looking for a top 10 draft pick next year, it’s not even close to a foregone conclusion. With 2 straight wins, the Phils are tied for the #7 pick. Which also makes them tied for the 9th pick. A half a game puts them in the 10th slot. .500 the rest of the way could easily get them to the 15th pick. Another Crawford would not be upsetting but if they want to make a FA splash, there goes that pick. I’m not advocating tanking, I’m just saying…
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Let the battle begins: Sandberg vs Rollins:
‘AFTER GIVING struggling shortstop Jimmy Rollins a day off on Sunday, Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg called the longtime, enigmatic leadoff hitter both “a big piece of the puzzle” and “a challenge of mine.” If Sandberg, who has an interim manager tag, hopes to stick around and have success in 2014, he will need a productive Rollins. Sandberg appears to have honed in on the task as something he wants to figure out in the season’s final 6 weeks, as he continued the conversation yesterday at Citizens Bank Park. “I’ve had conversations with him, but also I think it’s my role to let him know what I expect of him and what I think he can do and what I think the team can do,” Sandberg said. “For me, that’s staying on top of the ball and utilizing speed.”
…prediction……Jimmy is gone before 2014.
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One of many reasons for the Phillies failure the last two years, but a rather large one….Jimmy Rollins’ inability to get on base, plus not being able to utlize his speed to steal. This year he has over 500PAs with an OBP hovering around .300. Unacceptable, especially when he usually leads the team in PAs almost every year since he has been on the club, when healthy. Sandberg sees that, unfortunately Charlie tried to work-around it.
From philly.com…..’According to fangraphs.com, Rollins’ 19 percent infield fly-ball percentage was the highest in baseball in 2012; this year, his 12.9 percent ranks eighth highest in the National League. When Rollins has reached base, he hasn’t run much. He is 15-for-21 in stolen-base attempts this year. Excluding 2010, when he played in a career-low 88 games, Rollins has never had fewer than 30 attempts in any season in his career.’
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I’m always hesitant to dip into these debates, because I don’t like to encourage the pathological hatred of the best SS the team has ever had (by a huge margin), and because I’m afraid of being tainted by the reek of that irrational hatred. But here goes.
In past years, I felt that calls for a change of approach were terribly misguided. He remained an effective hitter, and, whenever you have an effective veteran hitter, suggesting a change of approach is risky. Players are creatures of habit, and there is a very good chance that a Rollins who changed his approach would lose the power without gaining anything in return. (To add some additional context, he HAD increased his BB rate significantly, and he had maintained his fine contact rate.) In 2011 and 2012, his hitting overall was fine – not ideal for a lead off hitter, but that’s more an issue of lineup construction than anything else.)
But there’s no question that there seems to be a real problem this year, as his power has gone away. I’m not sure that, at the end of the day, though, that. even now, a change of approach is going to make a huge difference. That’s not terribly reassuring, though. It might mean he is simply in his terminal decline phase. (It’s interesting – not sure how meaningful – but comparing his 2012 and 2013 performances, one figure leaps out at you as explaining MOST of the decline as a hitter. His percentage of fly balls that were HRs went from 10.4% to 3.4%. He has suffered small declines in other respects, outweighed by some improvements, e.g., his infield pop ups are back down to a reasonable level. Of course his speed and defense have both suffered as well, decreasing his overall value.)
But I don’t see him gone before 2014. I think that the chance of that is virtually nil for a number of reasons. What’s an interesting question is whether the team manipulates his playing time to avoid the fourth vesting season. That would require limiting him to about 130 games or so over the remainder of this season and next.
And they don’t really have a viable replacement.
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Rollins’ K% jumped last year, and has remained high this year. BB% and ISO both dropped this year. Stolen bases are down, and his defensive metrics are his worst in a decade.
When speed, power, defense, and contact ability all drop off, I don’t think it’s approach. I think he’s getting old.
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Ethan Martin looked pretty darn good last night. I guess that’s what he looks like when he throws strikes.
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yes, he did. but he clearly seems to fall off after 70 pitches. philly.com keeps pushing him to be a bullpen arm. and i am starting to agree with them. could be nasty out of the pen. his great fb would probably tick up and sit above 95.
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Yeah his fastball velo drops to 91 after the first few innings. Still I wouldn’t give up making him a starter just yet. There might be some kind of offseason program they can put him on to help him out. It would be interesting if they want to experiment on having a 2 or 3 inning reliever that pitches every 3 games or something.
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that’s also where the greatest need is. I wonder if once Doc and Pettibone come back if he doesn’t go to the pen at that point.
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To be honest I’d rather see Martin starting over Pettibone when Pettibone gets healthy. I’d like to just see him start the rest of the season, get some coaching and have the club see what they want to do with him in the offseason.
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I will be interested in what Doc does tonight – not so much with his results, but more with his speed. From his first rehab start, his fastball sat at 86 (although, I think Matt mentioned that one was clocked at 91). When I think back to the last 2 years, one of the concerns in spring training was his fastball velocity, and how it was in the mid-80’s (i.e. 86 MPH). Fangraphs shows his average fastball in 2011 at 92MPH, versus 89.6 this year (I would have bet it was closer to 87).
When I first read that he was at 86 the other day, I was a bit discouraged. But, taking a step back – he is what – 3 months removed from a relatively major procedure. Let’s see what the arm shows tonight.
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Re-reading some of these comments, I think the main thing that gets lost here is this … there is a limited ability to draw conclusions from comps (either favorable or unfavorable.. That’s because (for players his age in AA) the COMBINATION of high ISO, extremely low BB rate, and low K rate, is indeed extremely rare (and, given Franco’s low BB rate in particular, even rarer.) That cuts both ways – people raising doubts about the BB rate obviously shouldn’t ignore the K rate and the ISO (and we aren’t). But by the same token, you can’t simply draw up a list of players with low K rates and high ISOs and ignore the fact that they all have higher BB rates, and all but one of them MUCH higher BB rates.
The ONE guy that anyone has found that’s anything like a reasonable comp is Sandoval. And with a SS of one, I don’t think there’s any real conclusion you can draw from that. Still, FWIW, he’s not a guy who I would call a “star.”
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I guess we will have to wait and see what Franco does in the MLB but probably people will keep saying well he hasnt been challenged yet wait till he faces nothing but cy young award winners 600 pa a year, personally im rooting for the guy, but it seems to me your predictions could be bordering on you hope he does poorly so you can be one of those I told you so guys
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I just find that response bizarre. It is, honestly, an indication that you just haven’t been reading what I’ve been writing. I absolutely don’t mind people taking shots at me; it would just be nice to have it have SOME vague relation to what I’ve actually, you know, written. So, for at least the 100th time (maybe I should append this qualifier to EVERY comment, but my comments tend to be on the long side as it is):
I’m not predicting failure for Franco, and failure would not put me in the position of saying “I told you so.” I think he’s one of the top 3 Phillies’ prospects, top 50 in the nation, I think he is likely to have a successful long term major league career, and could be a star. I simply think that (1) he has some things he needs to work on to achieve that goal, and (2) the notion that, absent injury or PEDs, he his virtually certain to be a star, is gilding the lily. And (this is really part of #2) it’s silly to compare him to players who (even aside from the scouting concerns) who were MUCH BETTER in AA (because of BB rates).
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seems doesnt mean absolute , just I dont know most of times im on here somebody is singing the praises of Franco and possible comparing his stats to another and you say , hey wait this guy needs a work , dont get excited be hesitant Franco will not be a star. So if it seems to me that you always take the opposite approach when someone is praising Franco, maybe im not reading what your putting down , or maybe you are being some what critical of what only appears to me as the best prospect in the org. and I said bordering on I told you so, as if I were on the fence about what you had been writing , Whatever though I not trying to call you a hater or anything quite the opposite ,I generally enjoy your post and find them well thought out and to the point, I was just wondering why you dont share the same enthusiasm about Franco that most of the people on here do
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There is enthusiasm and then there is euphoria. I also see Franco as our best prospect. That doesn’t mean he is without warts or that he is necessarily going to be a star. I see Biddle as our best pitching prospect, but I also think he realistically projects as a good #3 starter in the bigs. Could he be more? Yes, his ceiling is higher than that. His floor is also lower. A solid #3 is a good, realistic projection of what he is likeliest to become, taking the optimistic view that he avoids serious injury and develops normally from here. Same deal with Franco. A solid MLB starting 3B for a first division team is a reasonably optimistic, reasonably high probability projection. His ceiling is a bit more than that, but his floor is quite a lot less. To name names, I think it highly unlikely he ever becomes as good a player as Scott Rolen in his prime and there is zilch chance that he matches Mike Schmidt. Not quite sure where you are setting the threshold for a star. To be more contemporary, I see zero likelihood that he becomes our 3B equivalent of Chase Utley. Maybe you meant a lesser star than those 3 guys. Franco has hit really well and had a breakout year at a level he was a little young for and has now continued that success at a level he is quite young for. I really like guys who perform very well and are young for there level. Usually we are left with guys like Ruf who hit very well, but are old for their level, or guys like Tocci and Joseph who have promise and are very young for their level, but have not actually ever hit well at that level. Franco has shown good power and the ability to hit for average. He still walks too little, is still painfully slow, still lacks a lot of range at 3B. It makes no more sense to just ignore those weaknesses than it would to disregard his strengths. Does he have the ABS? I don’t know enough to say, really. I’ve seen him in person quite a few times and thought he had a good swing. He’s not a guy you watch and think ‘wow that is one funky swing’. The last HR I saw him hit, he clearly was swinging for a HR. He just ripped on every swing. Fouled one, missed one, then slammed one. He does usually hit the ball, even when he’s ripping with abandon.
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you are exactly right.
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his low BB% can simply be attributed to a guy pitchers can’t get out (or thats what Franco feels in his mind). So why would he be taking BBs? I really don’t think your going to see increase in BB until pitchers starting figuring a way of getting him out more often. Then Franco will adjust and possibly start to rely on BB to get on base. But franco is making a very good point that his bat is better than the pitching and he is swinging away.
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Read the whole thread and you’ll see why this is wrong. (For two different reasons; I won’t repeat them.)
Look, I will be happy to agree that this issue is now getting disproportionate commentary on this site. No one is saying this isn’t a fixable flaw. But it is a flaw. Reasonable people can differ as to just how significant a flaw it is, but the refusal of a few people to acknowledge the obviously correct point that it IS a flaw is what is driving this debate.
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But there’s another (though overlapping) issue. The point is, IF you’re going to place any weight on comps, you can’t just throw out the data that you don’t like. The guys that Steven wants to compare Franco to, with the exception of Sandoval, managed to combine excellent ISO and contact data with much better BB rates. For whatever reason. But we don’t even need to get into what those reasons are. the point is that you just can’t put much weight on those comps when the BB data is so different.
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This is what the BB rate of “a guy pitchers can’t get out” looks like: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1109&position=OF
Franco’s career BB rate is OK, not great, not terrible. I doubt he’ll ever be a double-digit percentage guy, but he might sit in the 7-8 percent range as a pro. The K rate is solid and should also stay that way as long as big league pitching doesn’t expose the hitch in his swing (please do not use this as a jumping off point of whether this exists, because it has been extensively covered on this site).
My guess: Franco becomes Placido Polanco with power. It doesn’t sound like much, but it’s not a bad thing:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1176&position=2B/3B
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An interesting comp in terms of power, low BB%, and low K% at third base is Adrian Beltre.
Not saying he will become Beltre. Just an example of a guy who is very successful with a low-BB rate.
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It’s not outside the realm of possibility. It all hinges on whether he continues to make consistent contact against major league pitching. If he does, I could definitely see Beltre-like offensive numbers (2004 aside) from Franco.
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See, this is indeed an interesting comp, but not entirely in the way you’re saying. It’s why none of us were THAT concerned about the BB rate prior to AA. But it does put into bold relief just how bad the AA rate is (for those who don’t want to look it up, Beltre’s major league rate is more than double Franco’s AA rate). To simply dismiss it (as some people are doing) kind of boggles the mind.
It’s also interesting to note that Beltre as a 19 YO in AA had a BB% well over 10%. See, that’s what some people aren’t getting. They see the low BB rate as a natural consequence of how well he is hitting. But for successful hitters, that isn’t the case.
Again, one could put too much weight on this, but I don’t think we are. It’s those of us who see some cause for concern, but think it is likely correctable versus a group of people who are simply ignoring the BB rate in evaluating/projecting Franco.
Heck, I’d even go so far as to say that using Beltre as a comp for his upside as a hitter actually makes some sense. But that’s upside, one he is not very likely to reach. Of course he isn’t within a country mile of Beltre as a defensive player (even taking the more optimistic assessments of Franco’s defense as true).
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Really, Franco is incredibly hard to comp because low BB%, low K%, and high ISO is a VERY rare combination.
At this point, I think the variance is huge, but the ceiling is sky-high.
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Yeah, exactly. Really that’s what I’VE been saying all along. But that doesn’t seem to be good enough for some people.
Heck, I might even be more optimistic, in that I don’t know if the variance is “huge.” I would be surprised if he wasn’t at least a decent regular, assuming he can stay at third base.
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Franco comp’d to Pedro Feliz!
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Not by me.
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One of the things I’m most excited about is seeing the young bullpen arms the rest of the season. If Diekman/De Fratus can finish strong (Diekman hitting 99 last night . . . ) and look like they have turned a corner, the bullpen looks dramatically different. De Fratus, Diekman, Bastardo (like him or not), Adams, and Papelbon actually seem like a decent place to start. Then you are just hoping that someone else can step up (Stutes, Aumont) and a long man (Cloyd) and suddenly it doesn’t look so bad. That’s if we don’t bring someone else in.
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Diekman could be a good LOOGY if he was used that way. The splits are just night and day. It’s like people see how hard he can throw and want more out of him but he just isn’t effective against righties. The other problem is even against lefties he still walks quite a lot of people. So a guy coming in for one batter and then walking him isn’t all that desirable.
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Chris with control, he is more than a loogy, 99 mph is more than a loogy, he needs confidence and better control, think its time to call steve carlton to work on diekmans slider, and we have a nice bullpen arm.
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Is there any evidence in recorded history of Steve Carlton teaching another human being how to throw a better slider?
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Carlton will teach Tim McCarver how to throw it. McCarver will, in turn, work with Diekman.
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damm,
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Charlie was telling csn that he wasnt given the talent to win, like before, do you think the owners will listen, or just go on with amaro.
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Charlie most definitely was given the talent to win. Not this year certainly, but no manager had more talent than Charlie did in 2009, 2010, and 2011. As manager he just wasn’t able to make it happen. Do you think the owners were willing to spend more for more talent this year. 2012 was an injury-riddled mixed bag, avoidable only by shedding part of the core earlier or having spent a lot more on the farm, going back to 2001. The owners know the path traveled was the path that they chose, so yes, RAJ will be back and not just for next season.
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Well, they could have signed B.J. Upton … er … how about Josh Hamilton … uh … trade for Justin Upton? … wait … give up a pick for Nick Swisher? … give me a second … how’s Michael Bourn doing this year?
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Allentown, good post as the Phillies had the talent in 2009 to 2011 but Charlie was out managed by Joe Gerardi, Bruce Bochy and Tony LaRussa in those series. Charlie also pulled this quitting act at Cleveland in 2002 when he was told by the Indians that he would not be back in 2003 as they were going to rebuild. What happened last week is an similar situation to Cleveland when the Indians won several divisions and almost a World Series under Hargrove with Charlie on his staff.
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Brilliant observation Charlie but let’s not forget the few years after 08 when you had arguably the best talent in baseball and didn’t bring it home. And let’s not forget that you were considered by many to be a hitting guru and you couldn’t figure out Howard and how it took other hitting coaches to get Dom Brown going.
So while I respect you Charlie and appreciate your winning record this time comes for every manager.
Now we will get to see if the things Sandberg values filters up to RAJ.
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phillies signed bernadina and sent mini mart to lehigh valley.
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the good news is, ruf seems to be making a nice adjustment to right field. the bad news is, he still strikes out way too much and doesn’t hit with RISP. i hope he improves by the end of the season.
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of course, i made this comment knowing full well ruf would hit a home run with a man in scoring position 5 minutes later, lol.
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All of you draft position watchers: With five wins in six games, the Phils have dropped to twelfth in the reverse standings: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings2014
I know some are cheering for the team to lose, so it can get a higher draft pick and protect it from being lost in free agency. Personally, I’m enjoying watching Brown, Ruf, Asche and the other youngsters get a taste of winning under Sandberg. Considering most of the regulars on the roster right now will be here for the foreseeable future, building confidence now might be just as valuable for the future as a draft pick.
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Maybe the Giants, Twins, Brewers or even the Pads catch some fire in September (have not checked their schedules) and the Phillies cool off a bit..
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MIKE why post that, your killing me, i want to get to fourth, I like a couple of right hand bats, that i am reading about.
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•Looking ahead to 2014, Amaro seemed to imply that the Phils will likely be shopping for turnaround candidates in the free agent market. “Sometimes you have to be lucky to get those guys,” Amaro said. “There are times when even a change of scenery can help someone. Those are the kinds of things we will look for.” Then people on here wonder why i rant, this man has been doing this for two years, and it hasnt worked, adams was a turnaround candidate coming off injury, baez, same thing, mostly all of the bullpen guys fall in this category, delmon young, nix, my god does the owners care at all?? the only thing I can do is not go to a game, and i wont, as long as this moron is in charge, I can see it now he will most likely go after a hurt josh joshnson and overpaid, give kenrick three years at 10 per, moron he is a moron,
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Yet when everybody’s model organization, the Cardinals, signed Lance Berkman in this exact scenario and won the World Series in 2011, everybody patted them on the back and wondered why Ruben hadn’t done so. I get the impression that RAJ could orchestrate trades for Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton and you’d find a way to complain about it.
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Great reasonable post Mike!
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So we dont judge gm on there mistakes, great post my @@@. if you want to mention the cardinals look at two titles in 12 years, phillies 2 in 134 years. only cubs have two,like them. Mike if you are going to sign hope guys, you better be right, they havent, so how is my logic wrong?? Yeah lets not complain, when a team goes from 102 wins, to one of the worst records in baseball. lets not complain, He has one of the biggest budjects in baseball and has failed at the draft, not signing picks, at latin market, over paiding for pap,bringing stiff after stiff in the bullpen and bench, and putting together a team. you and pat must work for he phillise if you think he knows what he is doing.
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Since when do you believe any GM’s quotes in any sport? If you do I have a bridge in Brooklyn for you and some swamp land in Florida also for a good price.
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Let me ask you a question pat. do you trust this man to get this team back to a contender??
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Yes, since 2011 he has gotten younger at 3B,CF, LF, RF and maybe Sandberg can find the proper roles for some of our young arms such as Diekman and DeFratus to succeed at the MLB level. Cesar Hernandez can be an effective backup at 2B for Utley and perhaps other positions. The team has been hurt by injuries and Howard needs to be 100% healthy or he will be the highest paid platoon player(with Ruf) since Vernon Wells. An effective and healthy Halladay will certainly help if he stays off the DL but we will know this by years end . The big area to address is the bullpen but to fully evaluate it you have to wait until the years end. Another question mark will be the Cuban pitcher who will sign eventually because both parties have too much to lose. The bench needs addressing also and Carlos Ruiz is playing better now and probably will be resigned. They are not that far away from contending for a playoff spot and we have seen anything can happen in the playoffs. Ruben helped keep the run going with trades from 2009 to 2011 so he did what the owners wanted. Ruben did not trade all the farm prospects so he deserves a chance to rebuild the team. If he fails then that’s life and we move forward.
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Franco at first base:
“It’s just to give him another position he could go to,” assistant general manager Benny Looper said. “His bat is coming quick, it looks like. He’s probably going to be limited to third or first. He’s never played first so we wanted to break him in and see if that’s a possibility.”
Looper expects Franco to man first base for the remainder of double-A Reading’s season. He started there again Saturday night in the second game of a doubleheader. The Fightin Phils have nine games to play after Saturday.
Some scouts are skeptical that Franco can stick at third base because of his slow foot speed. Others cite his sure hands and strong arm as reasons why he can do it. The Phillies believe third base is his future.
Franco turns 21 on Monday. He was hitting .314 with a .913 OPS before Saturday.
“It’s surprising how good he is [at third] because he can’t run,” Looper said. “But there have been a lot of third basemen who could not run. Brooks Robinson was one.
“He has a great arm. His range is less than adequate. He’s pretty good on slow rollers. I think he could be a major-league third basemen.”
So why first base and why now? Looper said the organization’s infield coordinator, Doug Mansolino, has worked with Franco for the last few weeks at first. They feel this is a low-pressure situation for a tryout.
The team had hoped to send Franco to the Arizona Fall League, but they were not granted permission by Franco’s winter ball team in the Dominican Republic. Looper said the Phillies were promised that Franco would see regular playing time in the Dominican. The Phillies, though, have less influence there than in the AFL.
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