General Discussion – Week of 8-12-2013 – Addition by Subtraction Edition

Weekly Discussion

Subtracting Delmon Young and Laynce Nix recently seems wise. Now we get to see what Dom can do in right and Ruf can do in lef-what’s that? No, that can’t be right. Can it?

Well, ast least we got rid of Michael You’re kidding me? Still?

Discuss.

140 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 8-12-2013 – Addition by Subtraction Edition”

  1. There’s a little excitement in the mini-core of homegrown young players (Brown, Ruf, Asche), plus (in 2014) Revere. The offense could hold its own with them plus the older core guys (Rollins, Utley, a healthy Howard and maybe Ruiz). Beyond that, this team is in DEEP trouble. The bench is abysmal with no one beyond Frandsen. The starters — imagine how they’ve fallen from the four aces of 2011 — beyond Hamels are all questions marks or worse – yes, even Lee, a streaky, enigmatic pitcher who no longer wants to stay in Philly. The relievers are pitiful – I only see potential in De Fratus and someone from the minors may emerge like Robles. Unless they make some major improvements they’re a 70-75 win team in 2014.

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    1. Halladay comes back on a one-year ‘probation home-town discounted’ deal, so thats another question mark but could prove beneficial.

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      1. I hope Roy does not come back. He was a great pitcher but now we are better off finding out about the young arms than trying to coax one more season from him.

        Yes they are bottom of the rotation but Roy is no longer an ace and this team is no longer a contender.

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        1. Then do you QO him at approx $14M and hope for a draft choice if he signs elsewhere?
          Then again, he may take the offer and stay. Guess it will depend on an ‘informal handshake’ with Ruben, as Raul did a few years ago.

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          1. I think you let him go. You have to move on and see what you have with your young arms.

            At Roy’s age and coming off an injury you need to move on. He is not going to get $14 million on the open market unless it is filled with incentives.

            The team is staring 90 losses in the face with essentially the same lineup next year. Your upside is limited unless the young guys (Asche, Ruf, etc) take a major leap.

            Roy may give you an extra win or two but it comes at the development of a young arm. Right now we need to see the young guys at this level so that long-term decisions can be made about the roster.

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    2. I’m a little more optimistic than you are – guardedly optimistic, but more optimistic. I do think that the team needs to avoid moves which are to the team’s long term detriment in the pursuit of short term success. But I like their staff better than you do, potentially at least – obviously some questions need to be answered, and I think a value FA pick up might be needed. The bench and the relievers can be addressed in the off season at low cost. And, IF the draft pick is protected, I think the team will and should make one splashy FA signing.

      All of that STILL won’t make the team more than an 85 win team unless EVERYTHING breaks right. That’s why they have to avoid at all cost losing a first round pick or trading away prospects. And for goodness sake, give the young kids a chance – Asche, and Ruf, though I’d say Asche is the third baseman next year regardless what happens this year, while Ruf could end up as a platoon/bench guy for next year (but should be given the chance this year to prove otherwise).

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      1. It’ll take another month before I can be more optimistic about a top-10 pick, but if they keep playing this way we’ll be talking about top-5 instead of top-10.

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          1. phillies are at a point where every game out is another MUST LOSE game………bring on that high 2014 draft pick!!!!!!

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          2. As of 6:26 PM, only 4 teams have a worse winning percentage (Brewers, Miami, Houston, White Sox). Three teams have a .444 winning percentage (Phillies, Cubs, Giants). If teams finish with identical records, the previous year’s standings of the teams is the tiebreaker, with the team having a worse record receiving the higher pick. So, with this, I think the Phillies would pick 5th.

            The Phillies run differential, for what it is worth, is -95, which is third worst (Marlins -98, Astros -178).

            I am not one to root against the Phillies, so I won’t be in that group. The only caveat to that would be in the Phillies play themselves up to the 10th worst record, at which point I will not want them to climb to 11th (ie won’t lose draft pick).

            Question: if Jays are in bottom 10, would there only be 9 protected picks, since they did not sign their #1 this year. This would be similar to Appel and the pirates this year?

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            1. Jays have no impact because when you fail to sign a pick in the first 3 rounds of the draft you get a pick one spot lower the next draft.
              The Jays had the 10th pick in this years draft and failed to sign him, so they get the 11th pick in the 2014 draft as compensation.

              So there won’t be any impact to worst 10 teams. However, whoever is the 11th worst team will pick 12th because of the Jays comp pick.

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    3. i’m really disappointed in lee. you’re making $20-plus million a year, you need to go out and pitch as a professional every time. no moping around because you want to be traded. maybe ruben should’ve taken what he could get for lee at the deadline. there won’t be much demand for him this offseason, given his contract and how much he’s tailed off.

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    4. On the the flipside, filling out the bench and bullpen is the kind of thing that can realistically be addressed in a single offseason. Maybe not one at the direction of RAJ, but otherwise, realistic.

      However, I am not optimistic about the lineup you mention, and I agree somewhat with your pessimism about our pitching, not so much with regard to Lee, but with regard to Kendrick and Pettibone, who I think have both performed at the high end of their ranges this year. Even with a big name free agent, or even 2, I see so much opportunity for the continued degradation of an aging core and not nearly enough upside from 2 prospects best thought of as stop-gaps, that I still think it’s a long road.

      And that’s assuming we have a general manager making prudent decisions.

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    5. If you’re counting on contending based on strong seasons from Howard or Ruiz, then you are about 95% certain to be in for a world of disappointment. If you’re counting on that from both guys, I give you about a 1% chance. Far more reasonable to count on breakout years from a couple of guys among Ruf, Asche, Revere, Franco or Dugan in the second half. The core is past. The sooner fans adjust to that the sooner management will start to fix things.

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  2. The Ryan-Howard-Makes-Too-Much-Money-For-Playing-Mediocre-Baseball Fact of the Day:

    It is entirely possible that 22-year-old Mike Trout (18.5) will surpass Ryan Howard (20.5) in career fWAR by the end of the season.

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    1. I doubt the Phillies front office even know what that stat is.

      If Trout was a Phillie they’d tell him that he walks too much. Walks don’t drive in runs except when bases are loaded.

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      1. It’s kind of an unfair comparison to make because they play different positions. I just find it hilarious that they are already so close by that metric.

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      2. They wouldn’t tell him he walks too much, they would say “You need to be more aggressive in hitter’s counts”

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    2. Speaking of Mike Trout – I am liking his tweet that anyone caught doing PEDS should get automatic ban from baseball. I sense a movement here.

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    3. Just read Howard has lost 15-20 pounds. That might be best news I have heard yet. IMHO That was always his central issue for regressing at plate.

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      1. This is certainly true offensively. Losing weight has helped him on D and is now likely essential for his leg to hold up for even half a season. So, a lighter HOward with good legs may have a little more power than the heavy/gimpy Howard we’ve seen. Bottom line though, the Howard who hit a ton of HRs is highly unlikely to make a return appearance.

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  3. A few comments on the current Phillies situation.

    1. Everyone seemed to want to get rid of Delmon Young. Ok,, but is Casper Wells any sort of upgrade offensively? Not according to his stats from last year or this year.

    2. The biggest problem with Diekmann is that Manuel insists on using him incorrectly,. He is very serviceable against left-handed batters. For example, his ERA against left-handed hitters this season is 0.87 versus 6.94 against right-handed hitters! Yet overall, he has faced more right-handed batters than left-handed batters. In a year or two if he develops better control, he might be effective against both, but at this time, he should not be facing right-handed hitters in any crucial game situation.

    3. I have heard a lot of criticism of Kratz on the play at home in Sunday’s game for not hustling after the ball and preventing the second runner from scoring all the way from second base. Granted. However, a lot of the blame on that play should go to Utley. The infield was in and you would think that he could have made a stronger throw that reached home on the fly (a distance of probably less than one hundred feet) and got there a little faster thus simplifying the task for Kratz. Incidentally, this is the worst-fielding Phillies team I can remember in quite a few years.

    4. If Halladay comes back, he should probably replace Kendrick who has completely turned around his season (in the wrong direction) since the All Star break.

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    1. 1) I think if Wells played as much as Young, he’d have worse, but at least comparable numbers. The other side of it is that Wells is a great defender and Young is quite possibly the worst defensive player in major North American sports. That’s entirely useless for a bench guy. It was a good move.

      2) I don’t disagree with you, but what the hell does “ERA against left handed hitters” even mean? ERA is a bad enough stat on its own, adding that qualifier makes it more useless than Rosie O’Donnell in a prostitute lineup.

      3) Am I the only one who thought Werth sliding at Kratz’ ankle was unnecessary and a little dirty?

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      1. 1) I will have to take your word on Well’s defense, since I have not seen him play.
        2) I got the ERA stat from the web site, but with that much discrepancy, it must mean something. If you prefer, we can compare BAs: .167 vs .375.

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    2. Are you Eric Kratz’s agent? The throw was not perfect but he should have adjusted to it as it was catchable.

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      1. Actually, if you look at it carefully you will see that the hitter left the bat a few feet in front of the plate and it looks like the throw may have hit the bat and changed direction. If so, that part was not Kratz’s fault.

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        1. Yea, I was wondering if that happened or not. The broadcast wouldn’t slow it down, but it did kinda look like the ball hit the bat.

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  5. Signing McCann and Nelson Cruz while platooning Howard/Ruf would make this team a legit threat (dreaming a little but hear me out). Nelson Cruz’s stock took a big hit with his connection to BioGen so let’s say that he gets something like Melky Cabrera got (2 yrs 16m) but to be safe we’ll say 2 yrs 20m. McCann will be a tough sign esp with the AL teams coming into play with them being able to use the DH (something that should be done away with) so let’s say that a 4yr deal for 60m could get it done. Which would leave the Phillies with about 18-22m for other spots, mainly the Pen.

    2014 Line up:
    1. Ben Revere CF
    2. Chase Utley 2B
    3. Domonic Brown RF
    4. Howard/Ruf 1B (Platoon)
    5. Nelson Cruz LF
    6. Brian McCann C
    7. Cody Ashe 3B
    8. Jimmy Rollins SS

    The middle of the line up can be moved around a lot. You can make an argument for McCann to be the 4 hitter with Howard/Ruf moving to the 6 hole. You can argue that Utley is still your 3 hitter but I honestly feel this would be the best line up possible to compete with an aging Utley/Howard/Rollins. Also the Cruz 2 yr deal allows for Franco to have another year in AA in 2014 and then AAA in 2015. We all know the Phillies move slow with their prospects.

    Bench:
    9. Erik Kratz (or Rupp) C
    10. Cesar Hernandez INF/CF
    11. Freddy Galvis INF
    12. Matt Diaz OF (or John Mayberry Jr)
    13. Kevin Fransen INF

    I think the Phillies realize that Galvis isn’t anything more then a defensive wizard in the INF (who also looked ok in the OF) so they past plans of keeping him down for reg. playing time may be over. Ditto for Cesar Hernandez, he’d be a decent player on an AL team like the Tigers where you can throw him in the 8th hole or 9th hole and just hope you get SOME offensive production but if you don’t you still have a good glove w speed. They need one veteran bat and Diaz fills that role plus they’ll have Howard or Ruf on the bench for power.

    Rotation:
    1. Cole Hamels LHP
    2. Cliff Lee LHP
    3. Roy Halladay (and if he didn’t look good in Sept. then maybe look at De La Rosa)
    4. Ethan Martin
    5. Pettibone/Morgan

    I would keep Martin in the rotation as long as he closes out the season strong. Then I’d have Pettibone and Morgan fight it out in ST for the 5th spot, if Morgan wins then Pettibone is my long man out of the pen however if Pettibone wins then Morgan in down at LHV pitching every 5th day. I’m moving Kyle Kendrick in the off season for a bullpen piece. Halladay is getting a short term deal as long as he looks good in September, if not then I’m looking to sign a De La Rosa type or MAG is my 3rd as long as that deal goes through.

    Bullpen:
    Closer: Jonathan Papelbon RHP
    8th: Antonio Bastardo LHP
    7th: Mike Adams RHP
    LH Specialist: Manny Parra LHP
    Boone Logan LHP
    Justin De Fratus/Mike Stutes
    Jonathan Pettibone RHP Long Man

    The top should be a given. As long as Papelbon is on the team he’ll be closing. Bastardo has been reliable 2 outta the past 3 years. Hoping Mike Adams can be your 7th inning guy. Parra is throwing to a .180 BAA to LHH and Logan is just nasty. A young arm needs to come out of one of the last spots and most likely it’s either a healthy Stutes or De Fratus.

    This would give them a team that they could afford and also a team who could compete next year. It also allows for prospects to develop and then have spots to fill. Rollins option will more then likely vest for 2015 so let’s hope JPC will be ready for 2016. I know this comes out to a 26 man roster but you can remove a bench piece or pen arm.

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    1. Jon Daniels says they are willing to re-sign Cruz. He is liked in the clubhouse. Melky on the other hand, was not as popular in the Giants locker-room in 2012.

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    2. I’m skeptical on McCann. He will probably get a QO. Signing 30+ year olds and giving up draft pick to do so is playing with fire in a league trending toward youth. If we end up picking 11-14 or so, then I am pretty sure you will lose that pick (believe if you were out of top 10 last year, you give up your 1st for a free agent who gets a QO). If we end up in top 10, then I think we give up the high 2nd round pick and I don’t even like that. You lose the slot money also.

      Teams like St. Louis and Pittsburgh are getting additional almost 1st or almost 2nd round picks in the competitive balance draft also.

      The Phillies are aging badly. We need to continue to avoid QO’d free agents in my opinion unless it is really an ideal player.

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      1. Our pick w more then likely be protected bc it will be a top 10. Most of our prospects are 2-3 yrs away so doing this wouldn’t hurt and this would be a competitive team.

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        1. No. Purge that thought from your head. We could add McCann and would still not be a competitive team. We are not competing in 2014. Period. End of story.

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          2. Why are you not open minded about the Phillies recovery? Boston tanked last year and came back as a competitive team. Don’t give me the “Ben Cherrington is a genius” line as the Red Sox were extremely lucky someone took all those terrible contracts off their hands. This was a one time event that benefitted the Red Sox immensely and the Dodgers were spending like drunken sailors.

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            1. Right now, I would take Kendrick over Roy. Seriously.

              At Roy’s age I doubt he puts in another great year. He lost velocity and control and for someone his age it usually spells the end of his career.

              At least with Kendrick you know what you will get in terms of performance which is a perfectly acceptable 4/5 starter.

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  6. What exactly needs to be done to get Michael Martinez away from this organization?

    I’m willing to do whatever it takes.

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    1. Martinez is not the problem. He is only a symptom of the problem. The problem is a lack of quality back up players available in this organization that the organization thinks (rightly or wrongly) are ready for prime time.

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  7. The lineup will once again rely on Utley, Rollins, and Howard. Obviously Howard is the biggest issue since he is likely not even an average 1B. Rollins is still probably above average and Utley is excellent but will likely not play 150+ games.

    Platooning Mayberry and Howard, Frandsen and Asche could help some. I’d go after a power RF (Corey Hart) with Ruf as the backup in waiting. Rest of lineup is probably status quo:
    Revere, Utley, Brown, Hart, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Asche.

    McCann is the only FA C much better than Ruiz and I always worry about paying catching high salaries due to the breakdown factor. Rather get a good guy for the pitching staff and get offense elsewhere. Which is why’d I’d stick with Ruiz. Joseph is now out, so that leave Rupp and Kratz. Leave Rupp in AAA, Valle in AA, Knapp at A+, and Lino at A-. Kratz is probably at least an average backup C.
    Bench: Kratz, Mayberry, Frandsen, Hernandez (if out of options, or Galvis), and hopefully a good lefty PH (Jason Kubel). Leaves Galvis, Ruf in AAA for INF or OF backup. No confidence in Gillies and Franco and Dugan are still a year away.

    Starting pitching is the concern, will Hamels, Lee, Halladay still be a big 3? Gonzales is likely not happening so that leaves Kendrick, Lannan as 4 and 5 with Pettibone in AAA.
    Need at least 2 quality bullpen guys. Use Diekman as LOOGY only. Is Adams completely done?

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  8. Just for fun, how about a pointless top Prospects/young guys comps?

    Ruf-Burrell
    Quinn-Reyes w/worse fielding
    Crawford-Left handed Jed Lowrie? Can’t find a good comp.
    Franco-Todd Frazier
    Biddle-Gio Gonzalaz
    Asche-Left Handed Prado
    Morgan-Mark Buehrle
    Tocci-Desmond Jennings
    Dugan-Andre Ethier
    Ethan Martin-Rick Porcello
    Ken Giles-Broxton

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  10. Sign salty and either Cruz or hart. Two year deal. That will then give time for Dugan and Franco to be up after deals are done. Asche if sticks can then start working on OF position. Then maybe in a year or two. TrY and give Howard away. Only have a year left kick in sal and send him off. Move ruf to first and or if Franco keeps growing. He is only 20. And let’s not forget about Joseph will be at first with his issues. In 2 yrs te will be turned over a good bit with fresh new talent.

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    1. Joseph won’t be at first unless he starts hitting twice as well as he ever has in his professional career. There is a huge difference between a good bat at C and a good bat at 1B. Joseph rose rapidly based on his throwing arm and perceived D ability at catcher. He is the Freddy Galvis of catchers. Without an age adjustment for being young for his league, he was never all that impressive with the bat, even for a catcher. His career minor league OPS is .717. He would have to get that up to .900+ going forward to have a shot at playing 1B in the bigs.

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      1. I believe you have that backwards. Joseph’s offense was always ahead of his defense. There were questions in the past if he would even stick at catcher, but he had plus power potential for the position, and he was always young for the leagues he was playing in. As a 1B, obviously his bat won’t play nearly as well.

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  11. Salty would be the catcher I would pursue in free agency. Hart could be interesting. This lineup is still too left handed. Where does everyone hit?

    1. Revere
    2. Rollins (I hate him here)
    3. Utley
    4. Howard
    5. Ruf (Hart or someone else right handed)
    6. Brown (this is too low in my opinion but what else do you do? Switch him and Utley or go with three lefties, Ruf cleanup, Howard 5?)
    7. Asche
    8. Salty or someone right handed.

    Regardless, I hate this lineup. If you believe lefty righty doesn’t matter I would do this

    Revere
    Utley
    Brown
    Ruf (someone better ideally)
    Howard
    Asche
    Rollins
    Catcher

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    1. I like your second lineup and if they go with that they probably should resign Ruiz. I have a hunch the Phillies are going to try to move Rollins. I have mixed feelings about it because I would be all right keeping JRol if he is hitting seventh in the lineup.

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      1. The pitchers love Chooch. I wouldn’t mind him here splitting time with someone else if both are expected to hit 8th. If they trade Rollins and Galvis hits 8th I would like to see something better than a platoon at catcher. Maybe Salty? (still wouldn’t mind Ruiz as a backup)

        How is this by mid season….a Ruf/ Asche platoon in left and Franco starts at third?

        Revere
        Rollins
        Utley
        Franco
        Brown
        Howard
        Ruf/Asche
        Catcher

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  12. Also, I know this is out there but any chance the Brewers listen on Gomez? This is stupid because they just signed him for such a cheap deal. Still, I would give them Revere, Biddle, De Fratus and Quinn. (probably doesn’t get it done)

    There is a three hole hitter, then when Franco comes up the lineup is balanced.

    Rollins
    Utley
    Gomez
    Brown
    Howard
    Ruf
    Asche
    Catcher

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    1. I’m not sure I would buy high on Gomez. he seems like a decent candidate for a good amount of regression.

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      1. really? He is so young. Last year was his first good year and he has followed that up even better this year. That package I proposed is average. Revere is decent but there are a lot of CF like him. De Fratus…eh….Quinn, tons of tools but so far away and the SS they just drafted is killing it. Biddle would be tough to move but I’d roll the dice.

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        1. 2011 5.8 BB%, 24.8 K% .177 ISO, .273 BABIP, .679 OPS
          2012 4.4 BB%, 21.7%, .202 ISO, .296 BABIP, .768 OPS
          2013 6 BB%, 25.1 K%, .233 ISO, .350 BABIP, .856 OPS

          I think his real performance is closer to 2012 then to 2013. Paying for his career year wouldn’t be a good idea and besides Revere was worth about the same in 2012, although Revere played a little more.

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        2. His current year looks like a total outlier compared to everything previous in both his minor and major league record. Next guy suspended for PEDs or just a BABIP fluke?

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  13. What is the deal with Alfredo Gonzalez? One report surfaced that negotiations hit a snag, no news since, and now everyone assumes he’s not going to be a Phillie? Not sure I’d jump to that conclusion.

    No thanks on McCann. Too old, too expensive. Sign Salty if they’re going to sign a free agent.

    I would like to see Martin and Kendrick in the bullpen next season. Martin could potentially develop into a closer, he has pretty nasty stuff.

    Bullpen – Papelbon, Bastardo, Martin, FA, FA, Kendrick, Stutes / Defratus / Adams?

    Rotation – I would like to see Lee traded in the offseason. Eat some salary and get a return of two legit, advanced prospects, another high ceiling Single A prospect, plus a young mlb pitcher (reliever or starter) or OF / C

    Hamels , Halladay (1 yr deal), Alfredo (or FA if it doesn’t work out), Pettibone, Morgan

    Not even going to touch the offense for 2014. The potential is there, however, for the offense to be very good starting in 2015-2016 if some of these prospects (Franco, Quinn, Dugan, Crawford, Tocci, Cozens, etc) work out. That is why, IMO, the front office should be working hard to set the team up for 2015, not 2014.

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    1. Of the guys you list, only Franco and Dugan could see the big club by 2015. Most of the others wouldn’t make it until 2017 at the earliest, even if things go very well.

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      1. some of those guys could be 2016 with big years. Crawford, Cozens, Tocci start at Lakewood. Quinn at Clearwater. Who knows how aggressive they’ll be. Don’t forget a high draft pick this year. If it’s a college bat, you’d hope it’d be ready by 2016 if not earlier.

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      2. I would say 2016-2017 at the earliest, any of those names could break out next year and i wouldn’t assume that all of them are going to be doing only one level per year.

        The point is the same, the higher ceiling guys (starting with Franco and Biddle) will begin coming up in 2015 and continue to add talent to the club in 2016, 2017, and beyond. There chances to contend increase dramatically, IMO, starting in 2015.

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        1. the hope is there is a smooth transition with older players leaving at the end of their contracts and there being a prospect to take there place. If Quinn lit the world on fire, maybe he would be ready by 2015. If Joseph had a good year, we wouldn’t have quite the catching problem next year we have. But there is a youth movement like you are pointing out. Asche, Ruf, Martin, and Pettibone are here. Franco, Morgan and Biddle aren’t too far behind.

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          1. Realistically, how can Quinn possibly be ready by 2015? He is missing half of this season and is in Lakewood and having trouble at SS and didn’t tear things up with the bat. With Crawford coming on strong, the Phillies likely rush Quinn to FSL, but that really is a push coming of a .670 OPS and iffy D and only half a season above rookie ball. Given how much a push to FSL is, surely he spends the whole 2014 season in CLW. He is not going to pop from CLW in 2014 to the bigs in 2015, no matter what he does in 2014, and given his troubles this year, I give him a 1% chance of lighting the world on fire at CLW and a 50+% chance of laboring there and having to move off SS for 2015. Martin is sort of here in extremis. Pettibone is hurt. Morgan is hurt. Biddle has looked off of late. Joseph may well have caught his last game due to the recurrent concussion problem. Franco and Dugan are the likeliest reinforcements some time in 2015. Biddle has to prove he is healthy, as does Morgan.

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            1. I didn’t say Quinn would be up in 2015, I said beginning in 2015 and continuing into 2016 and beyond the best prospects in the system will start being promoted. In 2015 you have Franco and Biddle, possibly Dugan.

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            2. I should have phrased it “If Quinn lit the world on fire this year, maybe he’d be ready by 2015”. That clearly didn’t happen

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  14. You might have to settle with McCann throwing out one run in five especially with younger pitchers. This team needs defense.
    BTW Ache made a nice play roaming far to his left.

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  15. Cuban defector Jose Abreu , according to ESPN’s Jim Bowden could command a six-year $54M contract. The Phillies could squeeze that in somewhere.

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        1. I believe he’s a right handed hitter. I could be wrong.

          Here’s a creative way the Phils could try to create a spot for Abreu, assuming he’s a bat they could see as a game changer:

          Phillies trade Howard and $35 million to Anaheim for Josh Hamilton. Hear me out: Both are fading players owed a ton of money. But Anaheim already owes a freighter full of cash to Pujols, and will be forced to pay Trout A LOT of money when he becomes arb eligible in 2016. The $35 million from the Phillies essentially pays for Howard’s 2016 and the $10 M 2017 buyout, giving the Angels flexibility to comfortably budget for Trout while Howard DH’s and Trumbo moves to LF.

          Hamilton essentially replaces Howard as the albatross in decline, but he does it in RF, rather than 1B. This upgrades the Phils’ outfield defense and has the potential to improve the offensive output from that position if Hamilton rebounds. If he doesn’t, he essentially replaces the crap offensive production we would have gotten from Howard at a more valuable defensive position.

          Now the kicker: The Phillies either a.) sign Abreu (say 6 years, $60 million, although who knows by the time everybody’s gotten a good look at him), or b.) give Ruf the full-time 1B job.

          Revere
          Utley
          Brown
          Ruf or Abreu
          Hamilton
          Asche
          Rollins
          (catcher)

          Tell me I’m crazy. (You’re probably right.)

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          1. Why would the angels pay like 300 million dollars for two first baseman or better yet, two DH’s?

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            1. It’s not as if they are incapable of playing first. One plays 1st, the other DH. And yes, they’re paying $50 million for Howard’s ’13 and ’14, but they’re off the hook for any more money after that. Hamilton, on the other hand, is due $106 million through 2017.

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          2. Actually I like that plan.
            Will the Angels buy it, who knows?
            Will Ruben go ahead and sign another Cuban, who knows?

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          3. This is pretty creative. I think the Angels would need a prospect, though; Hamilton is a much better bounce back candidate (I recognize that the greater remaining money on Hamilton’s deal and the $35 million cash partially negates that).

            But yeah from the Phillies perspective I’d do it in a heartbeat, and I agree that, at some level, it makes sense for the Angels also.

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            1. fangraphs did the top 5 worst trade value contracts last month.

              http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-anti-trade-value-the-five-worst-contracts/
              5)Prince Fielder. Owed $168m over the next 7 years. Estimated Cost to trade(amount kicked in $48m)
              4)Josh Hamilton. Owed $103m over the next 4 years. Estimated Cost to trade($63M)
              3)Ryan Howard. Owed $85M over the next 3 years(including a buy-out). Estimated Cost to trade($70M)
              2)Alex Rodriguez. Owed $86m over the next 4 years. Estimated Cost to trade($86M)
              1)Albert Pujols. Owed $212M over the next 8 years. Estimated Cost to trade($152M)

              Hamilton is looked at as value if he’s making $10M a year(with $63M paid to make it so)
              Ryan Howard is looked at as value if he’s making $5M a year(with $75m paid for)

              I think that’s selling Howard short since it is a short-term deal and I think a team would give him more than $5M a year IMO. But Howard is viewed as less likely to return to significant production than Hamilton. The Phillies if they assume all of Hamilton’s contract are taking the Angels off the hook for a lot of money they’d have to include to deal him. If the Phillies also did something like sent money with Howard the Angels still probably come out ahead savings-wise.

              Like

            2. Here’s a Gammons column discussing the pickle the Angels are in with Hamilton and Pujols:

              http://www.gammonsdaily.com/gm-on-angels-dilemma/

              Again, if I were RAJ, I would at least approach the Angels with the above scenario. It gives them some breathing room to sign Trout down the line and frees up the Phils to play Ruf every day at 1st (or sign Abreu) while having a minor-to-major upgrade (depending on whether Hamilton bounces back) in RF.

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            3. Why would we want to help the Angels free up money to pay Trout? I don’t think I am the only one hoping the Phillies get a chance to make a run at Trout when he hits FA.

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            4. SO you think the Angels will let Trout reach FA? That is not the trend these days. Oh sure he will rwach FA….at age 31/32.

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            6. Read the original proposal. The whole idea is to clear a spot to sign Abreu. That said … you tell me why Ruf through 2016 would be worse than Howard through 2016.

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  16. Lot of decisions. I think one of the biggest questions is what to do with Howard. If they platoon him and Ruf, then you have a spot open in the outfield unless you are double platooning Ruf. So really, the biggest opening is at catcher. McCann is out there and I can’t imagine any catcher close to 30 demanding a long year contract. 4 years maybe? Super lefty heavy lineup. I starting putting it together and hated it.
    What would it take to trade for Lucroy? I know the Brewers don’t need to trade him, but they won’t be contending anytime soon and there farm system is terrible.
    They need a right handed hitting RF. If that’s Ruf, okay, but you’d like to make a big splash at catcher, which leaves lefties.
    I’m optimistic about the bench. Frandsen, Kratz, Galvis, Hernandez, and Castro. I’m fine with that. Not a ton of pop, though our “pop” bench guys haven’t really excelled since Stairs left. I think all of these guys could start for a period of time if need be. All are pretty good defensively and versatile. Obviously if you platoon Ruf and Howard at first, then you need to bring in a right fielder, cutting probably Castro.
    Rotation: What’s happening with MAG? I’m optimistic with Hamels, Lee, Halladay (if he looks okay). and then letting everyone compete. Best case scenario is contract having a great finish and having some trade value as a 4/5. Pettibone could start at the back end. I’ll see how Martin finishes but I see him as a bullpen guy like Madson.

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    1. Respectfully, I’m less optimistic about that bench. Frandsen I’m OK with considering he hits lefties well and can play a couple of INF position. Galvis is a solid bench candidate due to defense and position versatility but you better have some guys who can hit as your 4 and 5 OFs. Ideally, I think you need a 4th OF/platoon lefty with a bit of pop and good defense. Dugan could be that guy in a few years but certainly not the next 2 IMO. If you can improve upon Mayberry as your RH OF bench option then do so but you need someone who can play center. Hernandez may be able to do that in a pinch but he isn’t the type of hitter you can rely on for extended playing time in CF in case of a Revere injury. Therefore, he’d be the odd man out for me. I wouldn’t even consider Castro.

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      1. Franco in the OF is a complete non-starter because of his lack of speed. You don’t have to be a burned to be an adequate OF, but you can’t be as slow as he is.Other options to get both of them are also deeply problematic, but possibly feasible (if unwise). Franco to the OF is a complete non-starter.

        One of them will be traded. Not sure why people have a huge problem with this. If both develop to the point where you would want both of them in the lineup, then they’ll have a ton of trade value.

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      2. Franco transistioning to the OF….now that would be interesting, I would have like to see a foot-race between Burrell, Franco, Ibanez, the Bull, Inky and all the other speedsters we have had out there, Pierre aside.. Sort of like the Presidents Race at the Nationals Park.

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    2. Wan’t BA per say, that list is a compilation of managers opinions. As we know from major league gold gloves, they may not have the best opinion

      Like

  20. What do we do in 2014 with the next wave of young players coming in?
    At one point or another,

    -Adam Morgan
    -Jesse Biddle
    -Cesar Hernandez
    -Kelly Dugan
    -Tyson Gillies
    -Cameron Rupp
    -Miakel Franco
    -Tommy Joseph

    Will have to join with other young guys like,

    -Justin DeFrateus
    -Ethan Martin
    -Cody Asche
    -Darin Ruf
    -Jonathan Pettibone
    -Freddy Galvis

    And the veterans. Simply no place for a few of them.

    1B-Ryan Howard-Being paid too much to platoon. (Darin Ruf)
    2B-Chase Utley-Too good to replace. (Cesar Hernandez, but I keep Utley here regardless.)
    3B-Cody Asche-More experience, no other spots available. (Miakel Franco)
    SS-Jimmy Rollins-Too much veteran support (Freddy Galvis)
    OF-Ben Revere
    OF-FA/Darin Ruf
    OF-Domonic Brown (All OF spots filled, no need for Gillies, Dugan, etc.)
    C-Ruiz/FA (Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp)

    #1-Hamels
    #2-Lee
    #3-Gonzalaz-? (Adam Morgan, Jesse Biddle)
    #4-Kendrick
    #5-Pettibone (Ethan Martin)

    Ryan Howard at 1B hurts in more ways than one. Should Ryan Howard magically dissapear it would allow Ruf to be 1B and free up an outfield spot for Asche, Gillies, or Dugan. Hard to say if Galvis is any better than even a declining Rollins. Tough call. IMO the only real important prospects being blocked are Franco, Dugan, Morgan, and Biddle.

    Any idea what happens?

    Like

  22. I found the following, which provides a quick blurb on the results of 15 first round picks from the 2013 draft.

    http://baseballhotcorner.com/road-to-the-show-2013-draft-picks-progress-report/

    For Crawford: J.P. Crawford- Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies drafted the speedy shortstop with the 16th pick in the draft and Crawford has not disappointed. In 34 games Crawford is hitting .376 with 47 hits and 11 stolen bases for the Phillies rookie affiliate.

    I guess this is the time where most of the draftees have 30+ games under their belt (position players at least), so you start to have a basis to get an idea of what you may have. With Crawford, there are many things to like, but I really like that he has 23 walks to go along with his average (in just over 150 plate appearances). I believe his .461 OBP leads the GCL.

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    1. Certianly happy we got Crawford. The other guy i wish we could have drafted, but he was a rist round prediction and the Reds took him late in the first round was Phil Ervin. an outfielder.

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  24. Ruben Doesn’t Think Walks Are Productive: So here is the result.
    ‘Phillies are 19-47 when they draw two or fewer walks and 34-20 when they walk three or more times per game. The most disturbing figure: They walked two or fewer times in 66 of their first 120 games – or more than half of the time. It has only worsened with the team’s moribund play; the Phillies have walked two times per game since the all-star break. The Phillies ranked 17th in baseball in batting average but 25th in runs per game. More walks would mean more men on base, which provides more opportunities to score. They have not embraced that tactic’.

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  25. What would it take to get Mark Trumbo? The Angels have some huge contracts on that team already and at some point need to think about shelling it out for Trout. Trumbo’s average isn’t great and he is currently struggling, but he is a right-handed power bat that can play the outfield. Any chance the Angels swap Trumbo for Ruf, Asche, and another player or 2? They have no 3B and no money to bring one in. Their top prospect is a 3B, but he’s hitting .213 in AA. Asche can probably play other positions as well. Ruf can play 1B, DH, and play a little outfield if need be. In essence, he replaces Trumbo for cheaper. I’m not sure what else we’d have to throw in, maybe a minor league starting pitcher (or God willing, Kendrick) and a young prospect like Quinn.

    Like

    1. A few years ago the Angels were trying to give Trumbo away. That won’t be the case anymore but I suspect he would be available in the right deal. Just an FYI, Trumbo has played the outfield in 27 games this season and 97 games in 2012.

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      1. yea, but we played Delmon Young out there. He was like a bucket in the middle of a driving range. Hit it into him and he’ll catch it but he won’t move for it.

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    3. The Angels new TV contract will be paying them $150M a year, plus they gained 25% equity in the network so they actually get a share of profits that doesn’t count against revenue sharing only the actual tv contract does. That’s before you add in the $25M per year every MLB team will get from the new ESPN baseball contract which brings them up to $175M annually and that’s also before any stadium revenues.

      Pretty sure they’re not worried about payroll or affording Mike Trout.

      Like

      1. they already have 106.85 million tied on for 2016 on 5 players. Even if he’s still just in arbitration, Trout is gonna get a ton. They have a lot of holes going forward and a really week farm system and will have to spend money to fill some of these holes.

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  26. New Top 15 (Ruf and Asche [Asche should stick in Philly] are graduated as far as I’m concerned, I don’t think Martin has done enough yet in the bigs to be considered graduated)

    1. Franco – Best potential impact bat since Brown or Howard
    2a. Biddle – When he has above average to plus velocity and curve is working he is damn near unstoppable (needs to develop consistency and improve command); I expect him to be very well next year and make the rotation by mid-year. I think he’s on the verge of moving forward in a big way.
    2b. Crawford – Most likely player in our minor league system to become a star IMO; debut has been phenomenal and would probably be in the top 5 or 6 picks if the draft were re-done today. Could easily be the number one prospect in the system by the middle of next year
    4. Quinn – way too much talent to give up on, still one hell of an upside
    5. Watson – Don’t think he’s really hurt and was starting to dominate before the shut down; curve is known to be great and velocity was said to be in mid-90s. Could be a legit #2.
    6. Tocci – not sure where to put him but he has held his own as a 17 year-old in an advanced league and the instincts are said to be outstanding.
    7. Morgan – I like him as a pitcher, but I’m worried about the shoulder and the velocity; I easily could have placed him lower, but he has pitched well recently
    8. Cord Sandberg – all based on scouting reports – very high upside player
    9. Ethan Martin – has major league stuff, but struggles with command and has shown a very pronounced inability to retain velocity past the third inning. Value goes down a lot if he is a reliever.
    10. Zach Green – has shown good plate discipline and superb power in renowned pitchers’ league and park – has to solidify hit tool, but power sounds like plus to plus plus to me.
    11. Dylan Cozens – similar to Green but at a less premium position
    12. Dugan – very good hitter, needs to control strikeouts and much continue to develop power and OBP – has to continue to hit to justify his prospect status; could end up as a deluxe, more athletic version of Greg Dobbs.
    13. Kenny Giles – seems to be back on track after losing a lot of time to injuries. Needs to make a big impression next year
    14. Gueller – recent starts have been better
    15/16/17 (in no particular order) Grullon/Lino/Joseph – One of these guys is probably going to be very good; Joseph’s value has plummeted due to concussion issue – if he has to change positions, he’s not a top 30 guy, if he recovers and plays well again next year he could be top 5 – he’s here as a compromise
    18. Seve Gonzalez – could rocket up this list next year.
    19. Cam Rupp; good player. Will play in the majors for a long time, most likely as a John Buck-like back-up who can call a game and hit with occasional power. But I think there’s more than a slight chance that he develops into a solid starting catcher as I think it’s possible he hits for pretty decent power (20 homers a year and a ton of doubles); has a great presence and mental approach. He is a tough, tough dude.
    20. Juan Encarnacion/Jan Hernandez – More power hitting third basemen – both have intriguing upside.

    Like

    2. I forgot Cesar Hernandez – he would slot in somewhere between 8-12 with those behind him sliding back a position.

      Like

    4. Arguing order right now is kind of useless because it is an expired thing the moment you right it down (especially during the season). The one name missing to me is Jose Pujols, who I assume was in the just missed type range. I think Martin will near graduation, but it will be close and depend on injuries.

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      1. Good one – I forgot Pujols, he would definitely be in the 10-15 range or so. As for it being useless, EVERYTHING we all do on this site is useless, I just find it to be fun and it helps me get a view of the whole system. In this case, it’s hard to give our entire system a grade that is any better than a C+ or B-, but at least there are some quality players in the pipeline.

        Like

  27. What a list BA’s top 10 from 83 to 2000
    Philadelphia Phillies

    1983

    Jay Baller, rhp
    Juan Samuel, 2b
    Charlie Hudson, rhp
    Julio Franco, ss
    Jeff Stone, of
    Gerry Willard, c
    Kevin Gross, rhp
    Tony Ghelfi, rhp
    John Russell, c
    Francisco Melendez, 1b/of
    1984

    Juan Samuel, 2b
    Chris James, 3b
    Jeff Stone, of
    Francisco Melendez, 1b/of
    Darren Daulton, c
    John Russell, c
    Greg Jelks, 1b
    Ricky Jordan, 1b
    Rick Schu, 3b
    Don Carman, lhp
    1985

    Rick Schu, 3b
    Chris James, 3b
    Ramon Caraballo, rhp
    Marvin Freeman, rhp
    Darren Daulton, c
    Ricky Jordan, 1b
    Rick Surhoff, rhp
    Francisco Melendez, 1b
    Ken Jackson, ss
    Rocky Childress, rhp
    1986

    Chris James, of
    Eric Boudreaux, rhp
    Marvin Freeman, rhp
    Kevin Ward, of
    Shawn Barton, lhp
    Bruce Ruffin, lhp
    Ricky Jordan, 1b
    Shawn Dantzler, of
    Bart Kaiser, 1b
    Steve DeAngelis, of
    1987

    Ron Jones, of
    Marvin Freeman, rhp
    Mike Jackson, rhp
    Chris James, of/3b
    Steve DeAngelis, of
    Tommy Newell, rhp
    Bob Scanlan, rhp
    Jim Olander, of
    Eric Boudreaux, rhp
    Jim Fortenberry, of
    1988

    Brad Brink, rhp
    Bob Scanlan, rhp
    Todd Frohwirth, rhp
    Ron Jones, of
    Ricky Jordan, 1b
    Keith Hughes, of
    Marvin Freeman, rhp
    Scott Service, rhp
    Jason Grimsley, rhp
    Scott Reaves, 3b
    1989

    Tim Mauser, rhp
    David Holdridge, rhp
    Bob Scanlan, rhp
    Pat Combs, lhp
    Chuck Malone, rhp
    Jason Grimsley, rhp
    Ron Jones, of
    Chuck McElroy, lhp
    Kim Batiste, ss
    Brad Brink, rhp
    1990

    Pat Combs, lhp
    Jason Grimsley, rhp
    Chuck Malone, rhp
    Mickey Morandini, 2b
    Andy Ashby, rhp
    Kim Batiste, ss
    Bob Ayrault, rhp
    Chuck McElroy, lhp
    Jeff Jackson of
    Julio Vargas, c
    1991

    Mickey Morandini, 2b
    Wes Chamberlain, of
    Kim Batiste, ss
    Andy Ashby, rhp
    Darrin Fletcher, c
    Tony Longmire, of
    Chuck Malone, rhp
    Jeff Jackson, of
    Bob Ayrault, rhp
    David Holdridge, rhp
    1992

    Tyler Green, rhp
    Kim Batiste, ss
    Tony Longmire, of
    Mike Lieberthal, c
    Kyle Abbot, lhp
    Andy Ashby, rhp
    Ron Lockett, of/1b
    Cliff Brantley, rhp
    Braulio Castillo, of
    Jeff Jackson, of
    1993

    Tyler Green, rhp
    Mike Lieberthal, c
    Kevin Stocker, ss
    Chad McConnell, of
    Tom Nuneviller, of
    Ron Blazier, rhp
    Mike Williams, rhp
    Tony Longmire, of
    Mike Farmer, lhp
    Paul Fletcher, rhp
    1994

    Tyler Green, rhp
    Ricky Bottalico, rhp
    Phil Geisler, of
    Wayne Gomes, rhp
    Gene Schall, 1b
    Chad McConnell, of
    Jason Moler, c
    Mike Lieberthal, c
    Tony Longmire, of
    Larry Mitchell, rhp
    1995

    Scott Rolen, 3b
    Wayne Gomes, rhp
    Ricky Bottalico, rhp
    Carlton Loewer, rhp
    Rick Holifield, of
    Kevin Jordan, 2b
    Mike Lieberthal, c
    Tyler Green, rhp
    Ryan Nye, rhp
    Jon McMullen, 1b
    1996

    Scott Rolen, 3b
    Dave Coggin, rhp
    Marlon Anderson, 2b
    Reggie Taylor, of
    Mike Grace, rhp
    Bobby Estalella, c
    Carlton Loewer, rhp
    Wayne Gomes, rhp
    Larry Wimberly, lhp
    Wendell Magee, of
    1997

    Scott Rolen, 3b
    Bobby Estalella, c
    Dave Coggin, rhp
    Reggie Taylor, of
    Adam Eaton, rhp
    Marlon Anderson, 2b
    Ryan Brannan, rhp
    Carlton Loewer, rhp
    Rob Burger, rhp
    Steve Carver 1b/of
    1998

    Ryan Brannan, rhp
    Reggie Taylor, of
    Bobby Estalella, c
    Jimmy Rollins, ss
    Carlton Loewer, rhp
    Desi Relaford, ss
    Marlon Anderson, 2b
    Dave Coggin, rhp
    Adam Eaton, rhp
    Rob Burger, rhp
    1999

    Pat Burrell, 1b
    Marlon Anderson, 2b
    Randy Wolf, lhp
    Eric Valent, of
    Brad Baisley, rhp
    Carlos Duncan, 3b
    Jorge Padilla, of
    Reggie Taylor, of
    Dave Coggin, rhp
    Ryan Brannan, rhp
    2000

    Pat Burrell, 1b/of
    Brad Baisley, rhp
    Brett Myers, rhp
    Jimmy Rollins, ss
    Eric Valent, of
    Derrick Turnbow, rhp
    Reggie Taylor, of
    Doug Nickle, rhp
    Josue Perez, of
    Ryan Madson, rhp

    Like

  29. How can Ruben Amaro keep his job.He took one of the best teams two years ago, and now has made it one of the worst, and has them locked into bad contracts, with less money to spend, and aging veterans who are going down hill, Jimmy rollins is a shell of what he was, no power, looks like he could care less, pap is a untradeable relief pitcher who is losing his velocity, even if Roy Halladay pitches well, why would he want to come back here? I dont see how Ruben can ever rebuild a team,. based on what he has done to this team. Mayberry in center is a joke, I would rather see a guy like gillies who cant hit be our centerfielder the rest of this year, then see a major league team with guys in center who misjudge fly balls, Ruf in right is nuts too the bullpen has no one that can get anyone out, need at least two arms in pen, that are consistant, and Ruben hasnt in two years been able to find any. The ownership of this team first move to me is to let ruben walk. go after a gm candidate from the cardinals or braves, or some organization that knows how to build a . farm system, and a put together a major league roster that can win, this gm doesnt have a clue.

    Like

    1. Probably not….Phillies play a higher pct games vs teams under a .500 record the remaining schedule They do well against them. Plus the new manager effect may kick in, and they may start to go on a roll.
      Anything to aggravate the ‘lose for a better draft pick’ fan base more.

      Like

  31. So Ryne Sandberg decided Michael Martinez should be leading off. He already doesn’t seem like the guy to turn around the in game managing problems we had nor the lineup construction problems. Hopefully the Phillies undergo an extensive search for a head coach in the offseason.

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