Box Score Recap – 8/6/2013

Box Score Recap

I’ll take that line from Adam Morgan – 1R on 7H, 0BB and 5K in 5IP. He’s been pretty good since his return – 21k and 6BB in 23.2 IP. Kelly Dugan with his 2nd HR in as many games, this one off of AJ Cole (who’s easily one of the Nats top 3 or 4 prospects right now). Lakewood with 2 whole hits in their contest, though they did draw 4 walks, and Jonathan Musser pitched ok, so I guess that’s “something”. Gustavo Martinez stole his 14th base (at a workable 82.4% rate). That’s about 2 per week for his season. Over a full season, that could be interesting, especially if he can figure out how to get on base more often. Zach Green’s ISO has cooled off to .252. Still pretty nice. He has more XBH than singles almost 2 months into the season, though his K rate remains near 29%.

And in the GCL, JP Crawford  hit his first pro home run, and Wilmer Oberto hit his sixth of the year. Oberto’s OPS is back over 1.000 and – I noted this on Twitter yesterday – he’s got more RBI than all but three Phillies. If the club thinks he’s a prospect, they’ll push him to Lakewood next year. If they don’t, likely he’s just an old, undersized 1B dominating mostly younger pitchers. Still fun to see a guy mashing, either way.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130806

8-6-13 boxscores

73 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 8/6/2013”

  1. Jose Pujols .333/.391/.571 in his last 10. He really struggled out of the gate, and the batting average is still pretty low (even though he’s raised in by probably 70 points in the last month), but he’s showing something as a 17-year-old getting his first taste of pro ball. He compares similarly to Domingo Santana (who was a year younger in GCL, to be fair) in several categories:

    Pujols: 9/27 BB/K%, .183 ISO, 5 HR (122 PA)
    Santana: 10.8/31/7 BB/K%, .220 ISO, 6 HR (139 PA)

    Santana had a far higher BA (.288 vs. .211), which could mean either a.) Santana has a far better hit tool, or b.) One was luckier than the other in a limited number of plate appearances. Either way, the improvement Pujols has made at the plate in the past month and the emergence of power numbers is a really encouraging sign.

    Like

    2. Santana has crazy raw power, huh? Real glad the Astros picked him over Leandro Castro.

      If the organization wanted to be aggressive with Pujols, he could wind up in Lakewood next spring until short season ball starts. Not sure there is space for him in the lineup, though, assuming all the WPT outfielders move up (and particularly if Tocci repeats).

      Like

      1. I think he needs to go to Williamsport. He’s starting to catch on in GCL, but his average is still low and his K rate is high. Let him go to WIL and see if he can really get some momentum there.

        Like

    1. I think it was Zolecki who said there’s trouble there. Mentioned medicals, but I don’t know that he knows that’s why. He just mentioned them. Sounds like everyone in the org is tight-lipped about it.

      Like

      1. I was wondering if the medical exam showed some issues. That’s all we need is another guy getting paid while sitting in a whirlpool tub.

        Like

    1. According to Zolecki, yes.

      “The Phils entered this year hopeful catcher Tommy Joseph, their No. 5 prospect as ranked by MLB.com, would play well enough that they would have an internal option to replace Ruiz. But Joseph suffered a concussion early in the season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, suffered a couple setbacks and has been sent home for the rest of the season.”

      http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130805&content_id=55955056&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

      Like

  5. Maikel Franco’s BB rate in CLW: 6.9. In REA: 2.3.
    Kelly Dugan’s BB rate in CLW: 9.7. In REA: 2.5.

    Obviouslty SSS is partly in play here, but any ideas as to why two hitters with decent BB rates aren’t drawing nearly as many at a higher level? Is this an indication of facing pitchers with better control or more deceptive breaking stuff? Or are Reading coaches coaching their young hitters to be more aggressive? (Interestingly, the K rates for both players are also lower, which would tell me the latter is at play here).

    Like

    1. I don’t know the answer. But Reading as a whole is horrendous in drawing BB, last by a huge margin in the league – Reading has 279 BB, the next worst teams have 371. (They are also, not coincidentally, dead last in runs, despite leading the league in HR and ISO.)

      I think those of us who are concerned that the organization, on both a coaching level and talent selection level, is overly enamored of an aggressive approach, and overly dismissive of the value of BB, have, if anything, been overly silent on at least the former issue. Personally I am reluctant to draw inferences about the coaching based upon players’ statistical performances, but the evidence that the organization has a real problem in this respect is growing. I would say that my biggest worry regarding Crawford, for example, is that the team ruins him by telling him that he needs to be more aggressive. I’m quite serious.

      I’m sure Dugan fans are excited by the recent HRs, but his K rate keeps increasing, and his BB rate decreasing. It’s now 8-1 (yikes), and I think we can put to rest the notion that his AA performance is a plus in evaluating his prospect status. He’s probably fallen back to around 15 on my list.

      Like

      1. “not coincidentally”

        Funny. True, but funny. Also sad.

        Also funny. I mentioned the other day while at a GCP game that a phan had yelled from behind me ‘You have to swing if it’s close’ and this had occurred mere moments after I had commented to the guy sitting next to me about how pleased I was with Crawford’s plate discipline in the early going. I responded, not aloud but certainly not under my breath, “Do not listen to that advice”.

        I assumed a Phan made the swing if it’s close comment, but perhaps I assume correctly. There was only one couple sitting behind me, and the dugout was also behind me and to my left. Perhaps the ‘instruction’ came from the bench. Being somewhat facetious here as I’m fairly certain it was the Phan, but . .

        Like

      2. I was at the Reading game last night and Dugan crushed the HR out of right field well over 380 ft (says the pole outside of the stadium). His other AB’s where he struck out he was just hacking away at high fastballs out of the zone. Looked like another Ryan Howard if you ask my opinion…

        Like

        1. Thanks for the personal observations.

          I don’t want my above post to come off as too negative. I’ve had my say on Dugan, but do regard him as a real prospect. But the 8-1 K/BB ratio in AA is disappointing.

          Like

      3. I thought this was an interesting comment from Charlie Manuel:

        “What Jayson Werth and Pat Burrell brought to our team was on-base percentage and things like that,” Manuel told reporters Sunday. “I think people forgot all about how many times they were on base, so the more runners you get on base, the more opportunities you have to score. Nobody in the game teaches walking. We don’t teach walking. We teach get a good ball to hit, and if you don’t get a good ball to hit, you walk. But we also teach patience.”

        http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-should-platoon-darin-ruf-ryan-howard

        I actually found that to be encouraging, given previous comments by Amaro and the state of the team/organization. But if they are teaching patience, they don’t seem to do a very good job of it. It seems to be pretty often that I read something about a prospect and someone from the Phils’ organization talks about them being an “aggressive” hitter (including an article about Dugan earlier in the year). It’s like a buzz word and I’ve just seen it too much.

        Like

        1. I’ve always felt that Manuel was better on this issue than the rest of the organization (and one of the reasons that I don’t buy allentown’s narrative about Manuel’s sway).

          But Manuel is gone after this season – probably for the best overall, but reason why not a whole lot of weight should be put on his sensible comments about BB.

          The thing is, a lot of this is important at the margin. No player has a perfect ability to know if a given pitch is going to be “his” pitch. The question becomes, are players urged by the organization to err on the side of aggressiveness when they aren’t sure about where the pitch is going (or what type of pitch it is). I suspect the answer is yes, and I suspect that, for most hitters, that’s a bad strategy.

          I also wonder if there is something particularly problematic about the Reading staff. They were last in BB last year also. (Though they were second to last in 2011 with a different manager – how long has Frank Cacciatore been the batting coach? Interestingly, in 2010 they were 4th in BB under yet another manager, Steve Roadcap. Roadcap had them in the middle of the pack in BB in 2009 as well.)

          Like

          1. The reason the Phils BBs have decreased is not due to any philosophy or teaching done by the Manager or coaches. It is completely due to having a lack of ability to recognize pitches and that is a direct correlation to the lack of overall talent in the higher levels and who has replaced Burrell and Werth. Charlie’s instruction on Hitting are exactly the mindset a hitter needs to be successful. And the aggressive approach they mean is being aggressive in the zone on your type of pitch. Then we get to the fear factor of BBs and when you look at the players on this team over the last 2 years there is no one that a pitcher with stuff would fear. So they are going to just throw strikes and BBs will diminish. Also think of this, since Werth and Burrell left Howard and Utley have been hurt for significant portions of the seasons so there are the top 4 guys on the team in working counts and taking BBs not around and being replaced by significantly less talented/feared hitters not to mention Howard not adjusting to how pitchers are pitching him.

            Brown was a good example of a guy who needed to be a little more aggressive at his pitch and not so content on making OK contact protecting the plate with 2 strikes. Brown was not taking full advantage of his power by letting the pitcher dictate the AB early in the count.

            Like

            1. There’s some truth to this, but only part of the picture IMO:

              (1) It doesn’t explain the prospects – look at the team’s prospects in A+ and above especially (though I’d argue that it shows up at lower levels as well). Even the good ones tend to have below average BB rates. And the number of players with truly problematic approaches is quite high (I agree this could cut both ways).

              (2) it doesn’t explain acquisitions (FA and trade). Yeah, a lot of the position player acquisitions in recent years are low priced players, but not all of them, and, pretty much without exception, they have lower BB rates than you would expect for their price. I can’t really think of a significant exception. SOME of those players (e.g., Revere, Pierre) are high contact/low power hitters where the low BBs are not a product of a poor approach, but most of the acquisitions are players who have low BB rates because of an aggressive approach. Some (not all) of those may be justifiable on an individual basis, but the net result is a team that just doesn’t get on base.

              (3) It doesn’t explain statements by other actors in the system (chiefly Amaro) who, in contrast to Manuel, disparage the importance of BB.

              I also partly dispute two pieces of your narrative. Brown first – not that I would mess with success, but I don’t necessarily see a causal relationship between being more aggressive overall and his increased power (which is where most of his increased value has come from). Certainly his approach changed in terms of looking for “his pitch,” but that’s not inherently a more aggressive approach over all. There was also work done on the swing which, again, is ancillary to aggressiveness. Significantly, since his ridiculous May, his BB rate has been inching upwards (for June/July/August, it is at 8%, still lower than his previous rate, but slightly above league average).

              As for the “no longer feared” issue, there’s some truth to that but it can be exaggerated. By and large that’s only a significant issue with players such as Pierre and Revere, who have essentially no power at all.

              Finally, and I put this in the category of not necessarily supporting either narrative, but plate discipline data for some of the veterans does suggest more aggressive approaches over time.

              Like

      4. Telling statistics….that’s a huge margin. Even the Phillies statistical department ought to be able to pick up on that one and see the correlation. Oh, wait….

        Like

    1. I just have this image – I’m sure it’s unfair, and may reveal more about me than about the Phillies’ organization – of a big bellied, elderly coach, chewing tobacco, pulling Crawford aside and saying something like “you know son, we’re really happy about how well you’re hitting, don’t get me wrong, but we think you’re being a bit too passive at the plate – the way you have been swinging the bat, we would like to see you swinging away a bit more. All those walks just aren’t productive.”

      But it certainly is great to see him continue his magnificent start..

      Like

      2. Or he could take advice from his cousin. “hey cuz, I didn’t get where I am today by keeping the bat on my shoulder.”

        Like

        1. Seriously, though, I do have to think that having a cousin who, disappointing contract aside (and he isn’t bad this season), has had a heck of a ML career, and a dad who was a professional athlete, has to be a positive, both for reasons of genetics, and because he has had an up close and personal look at just what it takes (in terms of hard work and discipline) to succeed as a professional athlete.

          I know we are probably getting ahead of ourselves with Crawford, but I haven’t been this excited about a Phillies’ prospect in a very long time.

          Like

          2. Agreed, Larry. He’s the first player since I don’t know when who could easily profile to be a star. By next June, he could be the number one prospect in the system and, right now, it’s hard for me to rank him any lower than third.

            Like

            1. Yep. Strong 3 for me catch. Not sure he overtakes Biddle or Franco but I’ve been waiting for a reason to lower my optimism and he hasn’t given me one. I’ve seen about a half-dozen games in person this year – I hate using the word ‘smooth’ but I can’t think of a better description. He’s appears naturally athletic? There’s another shi*** way of describing it.

              Like

            2. Franco doesn’t profile as a star? Regardless of his other tools, any 3B who can hit 30+ hr while batting over .280 will make multiple all-star teams. Franco’s triple crown/MVP numbers at AA at age 20 are a better indicator of his big league success than the scouting community’s skepticism. Crawford will be the 1st Phillie in recent memory be rated as a top prospect as he rises through the system, but do you really expect him to be dominating in Reading in two years?

              Like

            3. “Franco’s triple crown/MVP numbers at AA at age 20 are a better indicator of his big league success than the scouting community’s skepticism.”

              If this were the truth there would be no scouts only people who looked at box scores. You have to understand the gigantic difference between AA and the majors. The numbers are not comparable

              Like

            5. Dom Brown was a top 5 prospect….

              And no, Franco does not profile as a “star”, although that may be his upside/ceiling

              Like

            6. Yeah, I think that’s a good way to phrase it.

              Another point, while the AA line is quite good considering age/level, let’s not get carried away. He’s actually doing a little worse now that his A+ numbers – not a big deal in that it’s a higher level, but he has come down a lot in the last week or so. And the BB issue, which I wasn’t too concerned about, is starting to become a red flag. The hope was that his BB rate would rise as he cooled down; so far, that hasn’t happened. In fact, the opposite is occurring.

              None of this denies he is a very good prospect, probably the one guy along with Biddle (notice a trend here?) in the upper minors with star potential. But let’s not get carried away.

              Like

            7. hey catch….first time you didn’t mention Derek Jeter and JP in the same posting! You are slippin’.

              Like

            8. Yes, yes, I did. I was just saying that he’s the ceiling and it’s fun to have a player who we can dream on like that. I never meant to say that he’s necessarily going to become Jeter, but it’s within the realm of possibility that he could become that type of player. Hey, the guy has me excited. What can I say?

              Like

            10. so you’re saying that he is going to be the next Jeter! Sweet..

              (best job in the world: wing man with Derek Jeter, but I digress)

              Compared to many of this site, I am a very casual follower of the prospects. I will say though, that Crawford does get me excited (okay – that sounds a bit odd). Part of it, for me, is that when I think of first round picks, I think of impact players. I realize that is not always the case, especially in baseball, where only 66% of 1st rounds make the majors, and a much smaller % actually have an impact. But, look at the list of Phillies first rounders below (including supplemental picks). Outside of Biddle and Hamels, there is not much there (I will throw Drabek in there too, I guess, as he was a top 25 prospect prior to injuries).

              My point – as a fan, I want to be excited about highly drafted prospects. Crawford – out of the box – gives reason for excitement. Many/most of the others on the list below didn’t generate this excitement – most would make me say “eh, or uggg”.

              2012 40 *Shane Watson (minors)
              2012 54 *Mitch Gueller (minors)
              2011 39 *Larry Greene (minors)
              2010 27 Jesse Biddle (minors)
              2008 24 Anthony Hewitt (minors)
              2008 34 *Zach Collier (minors)
              2007 19 Joe Savery (minors)
              2007 37 *Travis d’Arnaud (minors)
              2006 18 *Kyle Drabek (minors)
              2006 37 *Adrian Cardenas (minors)
              2004 21 Greg Golson (minors)
              2002 17 Cole Hamels (minors)

              Like

          3. Genetics, yes. Up close and personal, probably not. At least not from his cousin. He wasn’t aware that he was related to CC until the spring of this year

            Like

        2. One example were walks could be a negative:
          Jeremy Hermida ranked fourth on BA’s 2006 Top 100 Prospects list, coming off a .293/.457/.518 season at Double-A Carolina as a 21-year-old that included 111 walks, 23 stolen bases in 25 attempts and 18 home runs. He seemed destined for stardom with the Marlins, and his 2007 season with the Marlins was no joke—.296/.369/.501 with 18 homers. But Hermida’s ability to draw walks in the minors led to deep counts and more strikeouts in the major leagues, and his early work in MLB proved to be his best.

          Like

      3. I’m surprised the organization hasn’t directed T-Mac to start referring to 3-0 as a hitter’s count.

        Like

          1. Speaking of announcers……Wheels critiques Asche for the throw to the plate a few times last night, but when he doubles down the line…Wheels becomes conpsicuous by his silence, Where as, TMac has to do all the lauding for Ache’s hit. Do I detect a little bias on the part of Wheels to Asche, since he took Wheel’s buddy MYoung’s spot from him at third!
            Nah…can’t be..

            Like

            1. I watched the game on MLB with the radio overlay – Larry Anderson criticized Asche for the throw to home, too. But Larry isn’t shy about criticizing any of the players.

              Like

          2. I’d call 3-1 a hitter’s count, since you’re generally going to get something to hit and are looking to make contact. Hitters outside of the Phillies organization generally take on 3-0. In other words, while any hitter would love to be in a 3-0 count, I wouldn’t call it a “hitter’s count”, since baseball wisdom suggests they shouldn’t look to make contact there.

            Like

            1. 3-0 is the Ultimate hitters count. Let me repeat 3-0 is the count you want to work towards because you are probably going to get a FB so there is one read you don’t have to worry about. So then you are just left with location, and the object of every AB is to get a FB to hit hard. Problem with this team is not even swinging at bad pitches 3-0 it is missing pitches they should be hitting hard. Now this applies to any hitter other than slap hitters. Slap hitter gain no benefit from swinging early in the count because their contact is not FB driven.

              Like

            2. Coaches I know say that 2-0 is the hitter’s count. A popular question in such discussions: what was Cal Ripken’s BA in 3-0 counts? Answer: .000 because he never swung in that situation.

              Like

            3. Guys who are good hitters hit no matter the count and Just like Utley who takes the majority of first pitches he sees it is a comfort thing with them. Listen to be a good hitter you have an ability to identify your pitch the majority of the time and put a good swing on it no matter the count. And that is why they show patience waiting for the pitcher to make a mistake they can crush, because they know when it comes down to it they can make decent contact on a pitchers pitch, or foul off pitches till the pitcher leaves one over the plate.

              Like

            4. Don Mattingly NEVER swung at a 1st pitch. I remember seeing 55 mph fastballs on the 1st pitch. Pitchers only thought was he’s giving me an 0 – 1 count so I better go get it.. I thought that was a very dumb thing. I waited for the spot where he’d take a wicked rip at trhe 1st pitch. Never saw it. In CT, I can only see Yankees, Red Sox or Mets games.

              Like

  8. Looks like Austin Wright went from giving up a ton of runs in the rotation to giving up a ton of runs in relief…

    Like

  9. I know Rube “doesn’t do five year plans”, but it might be time to start. The 2014 draft could be critical to the Phillies long-term success, with their highest pick since Gavin Floyd and maybe another 1st rounder for Utley, they could possibly add two “A” level prospects. They’ve started to accumulate promising players in the 18-22 year old range, with Encarnacion (young but will reach the big leagues around the same time), Crawford, Franco, Quinn, Biddle, Pettibone, Dugan, Sandberg, and to a lesser extent, Zach Green, Cozens, Sev Gonzalez, Lino and the other catchers beginning to form a core for the next generation.
    Dom Brown, MAG, Revere and hopefully Hamels should still be in his prime when those players catch up to them…Along with guys like Galvis, Asche, De Fratus, Cesar Hernandez, Martin and Ruf, hopefully some of whom will become legitimate big leaguers.

    Whether or not Utley is resigned, the Phillies will have a much greater allotment of spending, both in the draft and internationally, that they’ll have to take advantage of for the sake of the franchise. For all the bickering about their spending, they’ve always followed the league’s suggestions. Its sad that we’re already looking at next year’s draft, considering this team’s payroll, but at this point, pretty much everyone agrees its time to turn the page, its just a question of how that happens. I guess this year, its finally time to invest in those PG and BA subscriptions. I’m sure I’m not the only one here already studying the 2014 draft…there finally seem to be a lot of prep bats with power. Its far too early but, in a perfect world, I’d walk away from next year’s draft with a couple of patient sluggers like Braxton Davidson and Justin Bellinger, as well as a polished collegiate arm to fast track like Aaron Nola.

    Like

    2. This isn’t the thread for this, but I’d like to indulge this discussion anyway:

      The Phillies TV contract is about to expire. It is time to sign a new one. Rube CAN’T do a 5-year plan because if he can’t convince Comcast that the Phillies are going to compete NOW then he can’t get one of the massive cable deals that the rest of the league is looking forward to. If he doesn’t get one of those deals it’s going to be much harder for the Phillies to compete (not impossible, obviously, but certainly impossible with the current FO).

      Like

      1. He’s going to get a massive deal no matter who’s on the roster. You think he’s convincing Comcast the Phillies are a competitive team now?

        Like

      2. Wouldn’t the cable company require the team to have a long-term plan before offering them a lucrative, long term contract? Wouldn’t a losing team with promising young players get a better deal than a losing team, with players nearing retirement? Its too late to keep “the window open”; none of our aging stars will be playing in 2018, so they do not affect the 5 year plan…aside for Utley, perhaps, but I’m not opposed to resigning him. Trading everyone would be part of a 2-3 year plan, but such a quick turnaround is not realistic for this franchise. That is why we need to start with a clean slate and think so far down the line. If it’s not Rube’s job to make that plan, the responsibility needs to go to someone else.

        Like

        1. I do not think the contract runs out until after the 2015 season, but my point really is that Ruin Tomorrow has already, and will continue, to cost ownership not millions but a few billions. As ratings decrease so does the contract. The only reprieve would be if Fox enters the bidding war

          Like

  10. Vulgar display of power in Williamsport today: Green (9), Cozens(6) and Tromp all homer, and Knapp adds two HR.

    Like

    1. All of them also struck out twice. It’s like we’ve got a team full of Adam Dunns there.

      Nice Pantera reference btw.

      Like

    1. That’s so much more important than anything. Shoulder problems are never a good thing and drops in velocity can take a starting pitcher and make him a middle reliever overnight.

      Like

  12. Sorry for dropping this here but didn’t see it commented on anywhere else – but did anyone else see BA’s list of “top tools” for each of the leagues from LowA on up. Not a lot of Phil’s prospects in there at all (though I get the sense Franco was blocked, correctly, by Miguel Sano) but I did notice Quinn wasn’t listed as fastest in the Sally Leage. That shocked me but they had an interesting article entitled “toughest call” today and it was fastest base runner in the SAL. Best news was Quinn was in the mix of three, and while he wasn’t deemed the fastest he was deemed the best prospect – and they pointed to his abilities at short which I found interesting.

    Just an FYI…

    Like

  14. Here’s an unrelated question: who is moving up from Lakewood to Clearwater next year? I ask because I’m moving close to Clearwater, and I wanna watch some baseball (and I ain’t planning to go to Tropicana Field).

    Like

      1. More than just those two – Andrew Knapp, Shane Watson, Larry Greene and Roman Quinn (if they go to A+). Also, Yoel Mecias should come back from TJ surgery in the middle of the year, and he may spend time there so he’s closer to the rehab facilities, rather than going back to Lakewood again. That’s hard to predict. Plus, rehabbing guys from all levels pass through there often.

        Also, in the summer, GCL Phils will have a new crop of draft picks, plus promotions from DSL and VSL, (and likely big LA signing Luis Encarnacion, assuming he signs in the next couple days).

        Like

    1. Quinn keeps talking about it on Twitter like he hopes to be playing yet this month. Not sure Watson isn’t just being rested until instructs, but I don’t think we’ve had any info on his possible return, one way or the other.

      Like

Comments are closed.