Yeah, kind of a big deal there – Antonio Bastardo was suspended 50 games for his connection to Biogenesis. Leaves a hole in the big league bullpen for someone, which I will assume is to be filled by Mauricio Robles just because who else at this point.
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
This is getting kind of embarrassing. How much longer until we can blow up this mess? Lee doesn’t want to be here, the prospects aren’t really that good. Back to the dark ages….
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If he wanted to help his cause in getting a ticket out of town Cliff Lee should have pitched better last night. The Phillies should put Cliff Lee on waivers 48 hours prior to his next start. He missed time with his stiff neck, didn’t pitch that great last night. Maybe he slides past all 29 other teams and if someone does claim him you hopefully have him go out his next start and pitch really well to increase his value to that team that claimed him which you would then have 48.5 hours to negotiate a trade with once the 48 hour waiver window has passed.
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Legitimate question – is there value in trading him for salary flexibility only? I’m starting to agree with Larry that I think we overvalued what we can get in return for these guys. If you can get a conscientious 40-60 guy, some small pieces and 100% salary absorption, do you go for it?
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IMO, you can make a case for that only IF you don’t think the team’s short term performance is going to have negative implications in terms of the team’s long term finances. I think it will, I also think that, without taking on some of the salary, we might not even get that.
One thing to keep in mind regarding any Lee trade is that salary relief is pretty much irrelevant over the length of Lee’s contract, given the team’s salary structure and the coming FA market.
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Yes, I would flip that question around and offer to pay some of his salary in order to get the needed return in prospects. Based on the MAG contract, it’s obvious the Phils have money to spend, and I’d like to see them spend it on paying down current players contracts in a trade in order to get much better prospects than to dish it out to Michael Young’s and Delmon Young’s and Mike Adams, etc.
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Over 5 weeks without a quality start. Lee is going to have to really prove he is healthy to have enough value to be even worth talking about. At this point, the big question to me is does Lee get better over the winter as he did over last winter. Only saving $$ is not really that important to the Phillies today. If you trade Lee you have to get something of clear value for him, otherwise, meh and you blow the chance that he recuperates over the winter, pitches well at the start of next season, and has a heck of a lot more trade value then than now. To sell him now is to really, really sell low.
RAJ really missed the boat not dealing Michael Young and also Ruiz. If RAJ wants to save $$$, just DFA Delmon before he racks up any more incentive $$$.
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RAJ missed the boat in dealing for M Young in the first place. He gave up two pieces he didn’t need to, as Frandsen and Galvis would have equalled or exceeded his output, and not cost anything. Additionally, the Phils would be much further along in evaluating the future of Galvis and his capability of handling an every day job. RAJ is flat out worthless.
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I agree completely. I think the Phillies wanted a ‘name’ to sell tickets. Young has had a very good career, but his present as a position player, rather than a DH, is not so much and that should have been expected. Selling faded old ‘names’ to their fans is an old Phillies trick from the time before the just-past good stretch. When they know they can’t compete, that’s their game plan.
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Lindblom has a 5.46 ERA in Texas and Bonilla was demoted to AA after posting a 7.95 ERA in 26 appearances. Young has not been perfect, but he’s been a consistent big league producer, which is more than you could ever say for the two “pieces” he surrendered.
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I look at it going forward. What does Young offer the team? He has a cost of roughly 4MM for the remainder of the year. Is he selling tickets – no. Is he generating any type of excitement amongst the fans? No. Is he better than some of the other options – in the short term – yeah, maybe/probably. Significantly better such that this team is going to win many more games? No (nor does it really matter at this point).
If the reported trade offer from the Yankees was true, we missed an opportunity to save some $$ for next year, which could have been turned for a decent bullpen arm (or used to offset some of the Howard black hole contract)
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It is the Phillies ownership that decided the non trades as you argued last week. Ruben is just taking the fall for Monty and his cronies.
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I wouldn’t get your hopes up. There are very few teams he can be traded to without his consent. The Cardinals are one such team. I don’t happen to know who the others are but it is a short list.
Also if I am not mistaken many of the teams that need and could afford his services are on his NT list thus limiting the leverage we have for any decent return. If the Dodgers put in a claim for him last year one would assume they do again this year.
I think every GM in the league knows they won’t trade him for nothing so if you are say the Pirates you would feel safe to put in a claim blocking him from the Cardinals and know damn well the Phillies are not going to release him to you, Huntingdon can offer a bag of balls and there you go he sticks with us.
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I don’t agree with calling up Robles just because he’s sort of a prospect. He’s got 25 walks and 15 strikeouts in AAA. Just call up Rosenberg or one of the other vets..
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I was assuming a lefty. Cesar Jiminez is the next option, I think. But yeah, Rosenberg makes sense, There’s multiple lefties up already, so no biggie.
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Maybe we can use Papps for two innings :). Just about the time you think it is as bad as it gets ,it get “worser”
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Pujols with another homer. Seems like he’s starting to settle in and the positive results are coming.
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No pun intended, for the sake of the franchise.
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I’ll say it and post it again…the glass is half-full…each loss brings us a better draft pick come June, and one day closer to Ruben’s moving on.
The irony of it all, Ruben and the gang finally started spending more international cash with Tocci a few years back, then Pujols and Grullon, now Miggie Gonzalez, and hopefully next Encarnacion…..and poor Ruben may not be here to see them blossom.
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Word is that ownership is going to give Ruben time (a couple years) to right the ship because they know he inherited and aging team. Not that I agree but that is what has been said.
On a separate note, I was looking at Houston’s farm and damn, in 2-3 years they are going to be a heck of a team with 4 former Phillies prospects (Cosart, Singleton, Santana, Villar) on their roster and 3 of them likely being major contributors (Cosart, Singleton, Santana) plus Correra, Springer, Appel, McCullers and Foltynewicz. That’s one talented group of individuals.
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I’m getting tired of these “Word is” type posts. Can you elaborate how you would come to that conclusion? Are you Monty’s nephew or something?
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No I’m his neighbor.
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This aint Twlight. Every GM when they take over assumes control of an aging team.
When Amaro took over the Phillies he inherited a World Series champion with Utley, Rollins, Werth, Ruiz (would all turn 30 for the first season under Amaro), Howard(29) and Victorino(28) with your Ace in Cole Hamels being 25 under Amaro’s first year. That with a widely regarded top-5 farm system around baseball… Amaro certainly didn’t inherit anywhere *NEAR* a bad situation.
The problems is the moves he made only increased the age of the roster. His major additions with Ibanez and Polanco who were both in their mid to late 30s when signed. He then traded away from that top farm system to get players already in their 30s which increased the age as well. All while robbing Peter to pay Paul and completely FAILING to bring in enough quality through the draft and Latin America to have a pipeline to replenish the farm system from the trades that they made.
Amaro may have inherited one of the best situations *ANY* GM can ever get. Most take over horrible franchises and have to build them from the ground up.
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Rube is so over matched. Just a really bad GM. Individual decisions can be justified, but when viewed in aggregate he just isn’t cut out for this. It was a great story, bat boy turned GM, but unfortunately the slipper didn’t fit and the ‘happily’ will have to wait for ‘after’.
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and they’ll have another really high pick in 2014 to add to the mix.
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That is hopefully Michael Conforto.
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IMO, if he isn’t gone before Thanksgiving, then he gets a year probation as the boss of the new manager, assuming it is Ryne Sandberg. Miss the playoffs next year, sayonara Rube.
Then get us one of dem dang fang-it saber sword numbers guys to run the boat!
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No that cannot possibly be true. Reading the Monty interview, there is no way to interpret it that Monty expects the Phillies to be a contender in 2014 or that anything at all can be done to turn the team around that quickly. He either fires RAJ now, or he gives him through 2015 or 2016. I think Manuel is gone after this season.
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I really hope no one actually believes he inherited an aging team. He structured the Phils in a manner that resulted in them being an aging team.
He signed numerous FA’s the wrong side of 30 to multi-year contracts (e.g., Ibanez, Polanco, Moyer, Lee, Papelbon, Contreras, Nix, etc.) and extended several others for a substantial period of time (e.g., Howard, Rollins, etc., soon to be Utley). Some worked (Lee, Ibanez — for the most part), others didn’t (too many to mention). During this time, they also dealt away a substantial number of prospects and younger guys (though, it is fair to say, to date, none of the prospects dealt are crushing it in the majors, but it looks like that seems likely to happen over the next several years).
Some of these moves are defensible in that, they were trying to grab another championship and typically, when doing so, you sacrifice the future for the present (e.g. Pence deal). Further, we have the benefit of hindsight. Having said that, some of those deals were just as indefensible then (e.g. Howard extension) as now. Those are the moves that appear to be largely causing the Phils from returning to the post-season any time soon, unless they get creative.
Since he is here for the foreseeable future, I can only hope he can learn from these mistakes (though this past trade deadline does little to inspire confidence going forward).
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Not sure about Santana and how long will Cosart pitch better at MLB than AAA?
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btw, i haven’t heard anything about gonzalez getting his visa.
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When it rains, it pours.
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not trying to be Debbie Downer – but the heavy rain has not yet started.
The 2008 team had a payroll of 100MM total (I provide this mostly as a baseline)
2014 – the Phillies top 6 players – by pay – will make $104,500,000 total salary
Howard: 25MM
Lee: 25MM
Cole: 23.5MM
Paps: 13MM
Rollins: 11MM
Adams: 7MM
If you were to sign them to a 1 year contract today, what are the above players worth (my highly unscientific guesses listed as well)?
Howard: 5MM base + incentives?
Lee: $25 is a lot, but he is still amongst the elite. So, maybe he is ‘worth’ this.
Cole: although this is not his best year, still considered amongst the better/best. 23.5 may be high, but on an open market, he is probably getting high-teens, right?
Paps: he has been bad recently, and has been firing off his mouth. I personally am not one that would pay a premium for a closer, but I still think he is amongst the better closers. On open market – he gets what – $8 – 10MM?
Rollins: I don’t know – 8MM per?
That does not include Utley – should they end up signing him. Kendrick is arbitration eligible, and so is Bastardo (I think his arbitration # just took a huge hit today).
In any event – I guess I am saying the same thing everyone has been saying for quite some time. Lots of high-priced veterans – many very much overpaid. Bring the umbrella, as I think we are in for some rainy times for a few years to come.
On the brighter side – hopefully we can continue to watch some of new draftees as they progress towards the majors.
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If you’re talking about signing them as FA at this point in time: Howard gets short years at $3-4 mill, remember he’s injured, Paps gets short years at $3-5 mill as he also is obviously hurt and not pitching well, Lee gets short years and $10 mill as a gamble, Rollins gets short years and $6 mill, Hamels gets long years and close to what he’s scheduled to make. SOme will say the values I’ve assigned are low, but how these guys were perceived on the trade market makes my case. Except for Hamels, they are all get healthy/bounce back bets. Howard is about in the category of the Youngs for a team with no connection to him. Paps isn’t close to elite at this point in time, in fact he is a below average closer with health questions. We are talking over a month of bad performance from Lee and Paps at this point. It takes a Phillies-type look at the career numbers on the back of the baseball card at the career stats to give Lee and Paps the value you list.
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I think we are on the same page with most.
but, Lee at 10MM/per? You are basically calling him a #3 starter for a mid/large market – less than Edwin Jackson (as my random point of comparison)? His WHIP, K’s/9, BB/9 are all better than his career numbers. If he is a free agent, and was looking for a 1 year deal next year – he gets a number that is approaching his 25MM. I still view him as an elite pitcher.
I realize that Papelbon has stunk here recently. Could there be an injury – I don’t know. But, I may be in the minority here – his stats are not terrible (whip – 1.008, ERA 2.47). Yes, the decrease in MPH and K’s is concerning, but on the free market, I still think he would command more than the 3-5MM (I guess this assumes a relatively clean check up on his shoulder/elbow).
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I think Lee is hurt. We have now seen 5 awful weeks plus a rest for a sore neck. There just seems to be something wrong. This is not the Lee of earlier this year. Last year also an off year for him. He’s certainly worth more than $10 mill for this season. Given his age and recent performance, I’m speculating that he’s not worth anything approaching his $25 mill per year multiple years going forward. I don’t think we have any idea what we get from Lee in 2014 and 2015. I didn’t want to trade him in anything less than a very good deal, because I don’t think $$$ is what the Phillies are hurting for today, but I wouldn’t be willing to bet many of my own $ that Lee is worth significantly more than $30 mill/3 years going forward. Would you? That’s why all the talk approaching the deadline was that the Phillies would have to eat significant $$ to get any sort of substantial prospect return for Lee. I may be low on Lee’s value, but I think I’m less low than you are high in saying he’s elite and may be worth his $25 mill, which really includes the 3rd year buyout (at $12.5 mill or keep him at $27.5 mill). So, while I freely admit that I sometimes get myself in trouble by exaggerating to make a point, I think I am closer to right here than is your suggestion that he may be worth his contract. He is guaranteed $62.5 mill for 2 years, or if he can go that far, $77.5 mill for 3 years. Nope, I certainly would not sign him on the free market for those $$$$ this winter. That would be a bad, bad gamble. The contract is not as bad as that, since we got good value from him in 2011, 2012, and the first half of 2013.
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Again, I guess I exaggerate a little, but if I am a GM, I certainly don’t give $16-20 mill for the 2014 and 2015 season of Paps. Just too risky. I also freely admit that I think most closers are ludicrously overpaid and that this is the most foolish spending in baseball. But again, look at Papelbon’s last 5 weeks. Yes, for the first half of 2013, in the warped market for closers, he’s worth your $10 mill a year, but unless he turns around his stats from the past 5 weeks, then no, he’s just another flamed out closer.
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I think Papelbon will turn it around. Even when he’s been struggling, he’s still not walking guys and he’s not giving up XBHs. Eventually those grounders are going to stop going through the infield with such frequency. Of course, part of the problem is the drop in strikeouts, but I think he’s still getting swings and misses with his offspeed stuff. Maybe he just needs to be a little less fastball reliant.
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Two many two-srtike or ahead of the count hits…he needs to put them away.
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agreed
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I agree that closers blowing half their saves will not remain closers for long. See Brandon League.
And I am not going to try to argue on projected salaries based on short season stats and possibly injured players since that all depends on ‘how hurt’ guys who are not on IR are. Chase Utley being a perfect example of a high cost risk. He could easily not play another game or he could generate 4+ WAR a season in only 120 games
Concerning relief pitcher salaries, it seems to me that ‘good’ setup guys (Affeldt), are getting 2 to 3 year deals at $5M+. Papelbon has been one of the most consistent relievers in baseball and that is probably worth more than say Huston Street who is making $7M per while signing in 2010 before free agency escalation.
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Allentown, I think you are way off here. Look at this past off season. Lance Berkman got $11 mill at age 37 coming off a year with 81 AB. Stephen Drew got $9.5 mill. Dan Haren got $13 mill. League and Broxton got 3 yr deals at $7 mill per. I think you are underestimating what guys like Howard, Rollins, Lee and Papelbon would get.
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I know I’ve seen it mentioned in some of the other articles that the Phillies should claim Thomas Neal. Well he was claimed by the Cubs who have priority over the Phillies as they have a worse record. He was passed by all AL teams to get to the NL.
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Fine, the Cubbies can’t claim them all and we’re sinking farther down the standings, so we’ll get some guys to claim.
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Hmm, Cosart with a sub 1 ERA in his first 4 starts (his K/BB suck, but still).
This Pence deal just looks shittier by the day. RAJ makes Paul Holmgren seem bearable.
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Dom Brown says welcome back
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I love how Dom Brown has somehow become an argument for RAJ not being a bad GM. Like, when the bar is so low that one of your better decisions was simply NOT f*(%king up royally, you’re probably pretty bad at your job.
I think that whole argument is a manifestation of Stockholm syndrome.
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I asked this before but Cosart is pitching better at the MLB level than at AAA. How long do think this will last before the AL adjusts to him? Although some scouts think he could be a better reliever instead of a starter.
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Mid Next year at the latest.
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Adrenalin is at a all time high. Probably mid-September and next April he will level out. Though he can still be an effective 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation.
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From the “how old am I” file..
It is the 20th anniversary year for the Sandlot. 20 years since we first saw Squints work his magic plan on Wendy Peffercorn.
Player most likely to end up like Benny the Jet Rodriguez: Roman Quinn
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Player most likely to end up like Ham Porter “The great Hambino” – Larry Greene Jr. Balloons up and switches to WWE.
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and this, from the TMZ website:
Actor Tom Guiry, best known for his childhood role as Scott Smalls in The Sandlot, was arrested at a Houston airport over the weekend after he was deemed “too drunk to fly” by a United Airlines employee.
You’re killing me Smalls..
Player most likely to pull a Smalls: Gillies.
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So much can change from now but 95% of us have turned our attention to 2014. Thoughts on what the roster could look like especially bullpen, and thoughts on who will be in Reading next year. Not a lot of AA talent in A ball…
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Madson was just released by LA… Honestly I would take him…
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For next season, absolutely. Unfortunately I doubt he’d want to come back after that whole situation.
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I like playing the roster game….
Phillies:
Ruiz,Howard,Utley,Rollins,Asche,Corey Hart,Revere,Brown
Kratz,Hernandez,Frandsen,Mayberry,and I guess Galvis… but prefer Lefty PH (maybe Kubel)
Lee,Hamels,Halladay,Gonzalez,Lannan,Kendrick (I figure either Lee or Kendrick are traded)
Papelbon,Jason Frasor,Bastardo,Defratus,Stutes,Diekman {and one of Aumont,Savery,Garcia,Rosenberg stick around}
AA: Joseph,Sierriatella,Alonso,Hanzawa,Carmona,Perkins,Altherr,Dugan with H.Martinez, Collier, Valle on the bench.
No idea on the rotation though since Buchanan is in AAA now and Garner, Wright, and Colvin I expect to be relievers. Also see Giles, Knigge, and Murray in the bullpen. For SP I will guess:
Rosin (repeats since Pettbone drops to AAA),Milner,Hernandez, then Buchanan and Colvin
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Absolutely zero part of Hart.
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But he’ll never surrender. Don’t you want that?
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but just a little more time is all he’s asking for….
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I think the future of this team lies almost entirely in the prospects and young players currently in the system and those that may be acquired this month / in the offseason / next july for Cliff Lee. At this stage, with their payroll and the poor quality of free agents and trade partners in today’s MLB, it’s going to be live or die by who they have and who they can draft.
If Biddle, Morgan, Franco, Alfredo Gonzalez, Joseph and Martin become legitimate major league players over the next two seasons….
If two or three guys with names like Tocci, Crawford, Quinn, Perkins, Dugan, Altherr, Cozens, Watson, Gueller work out starting in 2015-2018….
If players like Brown, Revere, Ruf, Hamels can develop to be the core of guys you want and can build around….
If Cesar, Asche, Galvis, Pettibone can be anything more then AAAA types over the next few season….
That is a lot of ifs. Things could work out gloriously and the phillies will be teeming with young talent knocking on the door in 2015-2016….or horribly with a system full of has beens and busts and regrets. it’s anyone’s guess…
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Don’t know if anyone has posted this but Sickels’ Phillies Top 20 season in review so far…
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/7/30/4566174/philadelphia-phillies-top-20-2013-pre-season-prospects-in-review
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At this point, the Phillies need to be aggressive with promoting prospects out of necessity. A successful turnover would involve those prospects stepping up in key spots of the lineup. This means replacing Utley and Howard in the 3 and 4 hole. I believe Revere is ready to replace Rollins in the lead-off spot, for good. D. Brown, though a small sample size, takes over in the cleanup spot for Howard. Not sure who would be replacing Utley in the 3-hole. The older / higher paid players cannot be traded for anything, but can be moved in spots that better represent their current production. This assumes Utley is resigned. The Giants were very good at doing this with B. Zito. Utley can bat 2nd or lead-off, Howard in the 6 spot, and Rollins in 7 spot. We will need to see where Asche and Ruff shake out by the end of the season. Guys like Altherr (tough given his SO rate), Dugan, and Franco would be up in the majors this time next year. I like the idea of adding depth to the team, while having the option to ride the hot hand. The team is suffering with the likes of D. Young, Mayberry Jr, and L. Nix. I believe Galvis and Hernandez will help the team next year.
Here is the lineup for next year, barring any major moves by the team in the off-season:
1. B. Revere
2. C. Asche
3. C. Utley
4. D. Brown
5. D. Ruff
6. R. Howard
7. J. Rollins
8. Catcher
That is an incredibly lefty heavy lineup. There will require mixing in platoon scenarios in CF (Hernandez), LF (Dugan), 3B (Galvis), and 1B (Ruff or Dugan). Given the current production of the older players, not a very strong team on paper.
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I can’t tell if you accounting for this, but Dugan is a Lefty batter.
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John was probably thinking Dugan was still switch hitting.
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I lost that fact. They could be forced into trading left handed hitters just to bring in right handed bats.
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My lineup would be:
1. Revere
2. Utley
3. Brown
4. Ruf
5. McCann/Kratz
6. Howard
7. Rollins
8. Asche
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I’m not sure I understand all the love for McCann. A number of reasons why I say this but most obviously is the idea of six pure lefties in the lineup. I suspect we remain right at C, and may even remain with Ruiz
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Not sure I am ready to put Ruff in the cleanup spot. It will take 3+ year contract to lockup McCann. Not ready to do that with all of the catching depth in the minors.
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Morning gazing at the MLB standings just now, I felt my first moment of excitement for our position in next year’s draft. If the season ended today;
Pick Remain
14 San Diego Padres 52 60 0.4643 50
13 Seattle Mariners 52 60 0.4643 50
12 Toronto Blue Jays 52 60 0.4643 50
11 Colorado Rockies 52 61 0.4602 49
10 Los Angeles Angels 51 60 0.4595 51
9 San Francisco Giants 50 61 0.4505 51
8 Philadelphia Phillies 50 61 0.4505 51
7 New York Mets 49 60 0.4495 53
6 Chicago Cubs 49 62 0.4414 51
5 Minnesota Twins 48 61 0.4404 53
4 Milwaukee Brewers 47 65 0.4196 50
3 Miami Marlins 43 67 0.3909 52
2 Chicago White Sox 41 69 0.3727 52
1 Houston Astros 37 74 0.3333 51
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Not sure we can reach the third slot…but the 4th is obtainable.
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At least that gets you a protected pick if you wanted to sign Ellsbury, Choo, McCann, Cruz, Beltran or possibly even Pence. All of which one would assume receive a QO.
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So you would sign Cruz.
Interesting.
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I’m not sure but I would have to think about it. He would most likely be the shortest term and cheapest deal out there.
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No, no, no!!! Once you show this, the team will go on a massive win streak and finish in the 20 slot. There are a lot of teams that are thinking about tanking the season. Other teams do it so much better than the Phillies… tanking I mean. So the Phils can’t win enough to get to the playoffs but can’t lose enough to get a top 10 draft pick. Isn’t that the worst of all worlds?
ps How bad do the ‘Stros have to get to be banned as a major league team? I think half the AAA affiliates and one or two AA affiliates around the leagues could beat this team. I know help is on the way but is the 2nd coming of Strasburg arriving next year?
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Yes, Rodon
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‘…….is the 2nd coming of Strasburg arriving next year?’
Yes lefty Carlos Rodon at North Carolina…..didn’t you read the earlier posting today?
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Rodon is at NC State not North Carolina just to clarify haha. Being a season ticket holder, I have seen all of his home starts. He is much better than Strasburg was in college. He could pitch in the majors tomorrow and do just fine ++ FB and ++ Slider and amazing demeanor, Price is the only fair comp and he could be better than that. Saw him K 11 Cubans last week in his final start of the Spring (NCSU)/Summer (USA). Barring extreme injury or severe lack of command he will go #1. You can’t pass on him… he is the best college pitcher that I have ever seen. Could have gone #1 the last two years. No way to even bring his name up in draft talks unless we are approaching Houston or Miami http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xyxx29xhS4o
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I can’t claim to have watched Rodon or Strasburg in college… but what? I think that is some severe hyperbole.
Rodon: 114.2 IP, 71 H, 41 BB, 135 K’s 1.53 ERA
Strasburg (all College) 243 IP, 144 H, 50 BB, 375 K’s 1.59 ERA
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I saw Strasburg pitch the Summer of ’08 with the USA College team and US Olympic Team. Nothing comparable to Rodon. Rodon attacks a hitter better than anyone. It’s one of those things where you have to see him on TV on in person to really see how amazing he is.
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Carlos also pitched in the ACC (2nd toughest conference to SEC). This year as a Sophomore with USA and NC State he went 13-3 2.99 ERA for NCSU and 0.00 ERA for USA. 132 IP for NCSU and 17 for USA. A combined 205 K’s… 2 wins vs. Cuba, 1 vs. Japan, 10 shutout innings vs. UNC and a College World Series win vs. #1 UNC. No way he would ever fall to the Phillies
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‘No way he would ever fall to the Phillies’, then the Phillies need to go down to him. Beginning tonight…start Cloyd over Hamels and DL the remaining rotation, and bring up the Iron Pigs rotation.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings2014
Reverse standings just to keep track.
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With all the drug talk most probably think the reason Ruiz isn’t hitting well is lack of PEDs. The truth is he is back to where he was before he came off the DL years ago and hit so well.
Watch in slowmo and it is clear he is not getting back on his preswing and therefore the barrel of the bat is lagging.
So if an ole gas bag like me can see this, what the hell is Cholly(the great hitting coach) doing???
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While Utley may want to come back, and it would be charming to have him be a life-long Phillie, I think the team needs to take a long look at adding an older player on a long term deal. Granted, Rollins comes off the books next year.. but by keeping rollins/howard/utley around, we are still clinging to the past
Maybe the way to go is:
Trade Rollins for whaatever we can get.
resign Utley on a 3 year deal, but make the 3rd year a team option. (doubt he will go for that)
-trade Lee
-accept mediocrity for a few years.
-make smart FA signings. Tough, as the FA market is pretty poor as most young players sign up for long deals.
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Rollins IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE….10 and 5 player, he will veto he said.
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oh, forgot ABOUT that.. GOOD point..
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Start batting Rollins in 7 or 8 hole and you will see how quickly he wants to leave. The man has earned his position in the organization, but his spot in the lineup needs to be representative of where he is production wise.
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as of now, we have the 10th or 11th pick… we can definitely get to the 5-10 range.
Would tender an offer to Utley, so as to get a pick back as well.
Look at the Mets- peak record 1999..with 99 wins
bottomed out in 2003- 66 wins
2006- back up to 97 wins
The Braves
2004- 96 wins (were already on the decline)
2008-72 wins (ndair
now back up
The sooner we realize we need to embrace mediocrity and reload, the better long term
Problem is Amaro’s best interest may not be the team’s best interest… which is reason to his reset and change the direction with new management
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Latest Standings…reverse:
14 San Diego Padres 52 60
13 Seattle Mariners 52 60
12 Toronto Blue Jays 52 60
11 Colorado Rockies 52 61
10 Los Angeles Angels 51 60
9 San Francisco Giants 50 61
—–8 Philadelphia Phillies 50 61
7 New York Mets 49 60
6 Chicago Cubs 49 62
5 Minnesota Twins 48 61
4 Milwaukee Brewers 47 65
3 Miami Marlins 43 67
2 Chicago White Sox 41 69
1 Houston Astros 37 74
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thanks- I was looking at win total , not %.. so we could be as good as 4!!!! or as low as 14
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Need to stay in the top (bottom) 10. Anything better (worse) than that is gravy.
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As of now the Phillies have the 8th pick and the Phillies should resign Utley as he is the 2nd best 2B on the 2014 Free Agent market(Cano ahead of him).
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Off topic, but does Art Charles project as anything? How did we get him?
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He’s probably org filler. We got him when we traded Schwimer to the Blue Jays I think.
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Charles was acquired more Michael Schwimmer at the beginning of the season.
He has big time raw power but at first base and oldish for the level he will need to just mash baseballs without swinging and missing too much, all the way to the major leagues
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Speaking of Schwimmer – he was DFA’d by the Jay today.
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The good news is that his K% has dropped each year and is now at a reasonable level, while maintaining a high BB%.
The bad news is that his ISO is down quite a bit this year, and that pretty much renders him a non-prospect given his age/level/position.
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Does Rube put in a claim for his old pal?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/blue-jays-designate-michael-schwimer-for-assignment.html
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Gotta point at that all the ranting and raving about the Phillies front office is a little obsessive. It’s not everyone on here and I really think that there are legit complaints, but at this point it’s to the point of being unhealthy. Also, history will judge the type of GM Amaro has been. I’m not a huge RAJ defender, but if he would’ve listened to people on this site (like so many really believe he should, whether they admit it or not) we’d be saddled with large contracts for Swisher, Bourn, Upton, or Hamilton. We will see in time if the prospects traded away have good big league careers. I’m not saying not to critique Amaro, but seriously, got a hobby where you can relax and stop obsessing all the time.
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this is my hobby
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I want to take a look at the “fire sale” proposals which we still see even after the trade deadline. I’m inclined to think that most of it is an ill considered “we have to do something!” mindset. But let’s take seriously the four arguments in favor of doing so:
(1) We need to save salary by getting rid of over priced veterans – I list this first because it is the most easily dismissed; there is IMO no basis for this one at all. Not that the team doesn’t have overpriced veterans; they of course do. But: (a) the bad contracts are unmovable; (b) the FA market going forward stinks, and (c) the team does not face serious payroll constraints for the next couple of years, and the payroll situation gets progressively better after that.
(2) We need to make room for the kids – obviously COULD be a good argument, except that in fact no good prospects in the upper minors are blocked. There are of course two arguable exceptions here in Hernandez and Galvis. Galvis, though, has taken a significant step backwards. He could possibly improve to the point where he could be a solid regular, but right now looks like a bench guy. I see no reason why he’ll benefit from on the job learning in the majors as opposed to AAA. Hernandez is a guy regarding whom reasonable minds differ, so I won’t put this argument in the “easily dismissed” category. But AT BEST you’re looking at someone who is going to be a decent major league regular. IMO that isn’t reason enough to shove Utley out the door. Other players major league ready or close to that are not blocked.
(3) We need to tank for draft picks – except that, aside from the occasional first or second overall pick (and that doesn’t happen every year), even top picks aren’t can’t miss. And you can’t guarantee picking that high. What’s the difference between say the tenth pick and the fifth pick? By and large, not a huge one. Then the is the international market, but there the uncertainly factor is even larger given the age these kids are signed combined with the often dodgy competition level, making evaluation difficult.
(4) We need to trade our veterans for prospects – I think the recent trade deadline has given fans a dose of reality on this one. But some people still say something along the lines of “well, at least we can get SOMETHING for these guys.” But let’s talk specifics. For most of these guys, for one reason or the other, the answer is, not you can’t. M. Young should probably have been dealt, but let’s not pretend that the fact that we’re not getting a guy who MIGHT be a decent non-leverage reliever at some point is a huge deal. Ruiz likely would have fetched a similar marginal prospect. Nobody seems to have been beating our door down to get Kendrick. So what’s left? Lee, if you pay half his salary, over the winter might get you a prospect in the 40 to 60 range. Letting Utley go gets you a sandwich round pick. That’s not nothing, but it means getting rid of your best pitcher and best position regular for … not much.
So IMO we have one argument that carries no weight and three arguments that carry little weight. Now IF there were no counter veiling concerns, I’d say that there would be a case for dumping veterans. But … maybe some of you aren’t CONVINCED that a fire sale would hurt the team’s long term financial picture, but isn’t there at least a risk? The next TV contract is HUGE. And it’s not just about wins and losses. For both the TV contract and attendance it’s about the perception that the team is TRYING to win. And IMO turning into the Marlins – or Astros – would undermine that perception. IMO it would cost the team hundreds of millions of dollars in the long term, and that WOULD hurt the team’s ability to compete long term.
People say that the team won’t turn into the Marlins or Astros, and yeah that’s probably true, but that’s because the team WON’T go into fire sale mode.
Oh, then there is the non-argument pointing to teams that had a down period and rebounded. That proves exactly nothing, unless you can show some BENEFIT from the down period. And, aside from as few cases where the veterans DID bring back good prospects, not relevant to the Phillies, that was rarely the case. Instead you have the normal ebb and flow of franchises. it’s just the It isn’t even a bad argument, it isn’t even an argument
All of these does not mean sticking with all veterans at all cost. A gradual transition is best. Even I suspect that the team may err a bit in sticking with the old guys. But to the team’s credit, the young players who really have a chance to help the team long term – Asche, Brown, maybe Ruf – are getting their chance. IMO you can’t ask for more. (And of course as you know I think management has many other problems, but that’s a separate topic.)
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I agree with the logic. High paid veterans just need to be re-appropriated on the team to make room for the young guys. This is very similar to how Victorino / Werth, Utley, Howard, and Ruiz took over for Abreu, Polanco, Thome and Lieberthal. The only difference is the current guys actually won something and the team feels a historical obligation towards them.
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No. The other and main difference is that there are no prospects anywhere near as good as that group ready to take over
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They also had time to prove their value. Howard had a good part of the 2005 season before Thome was traded. Utley was platooning with Polanco. Ruiz was platooning with Lieberthal.
Ruff and Asche are being given approx 50 games to prove their worth and the future of Utley. IMO, we need to afford that same opportunity to Valle or Rupp next year and let Ruiz walk.
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Not quite sure what you mean by Ruf and Asche proving their worth in these 50 games. I think they’re it for next season, in any case. Franco is right behind Ruf and Frandsen is available as backup, so they’re not going to go out and trade for or get a vet FA. With Franco slotted for Allentown, I think they’re even a little limited in being able to sign one of the better AAAA guys for further backup. Ruf has shown a lot so far this year and at the end of last year. Collier is coming up behind him in 2015, so I don’t think they go after a FA or big trade there either. The Phillies seem prepared to take their lumps next season if that is what happens. Valle, Rupp, or Joseph will get their chance on the big club next year, likely as the backup catcher. The Phillies can’t keep the 3 of them in Allentown and they will all be ready for that level. I guess one could be cut or traded. Also hard to get a good AAAA catcher, with the backup in catching at the AAA level. I guess an enterprising lad may see an excellent chance to show what he’s got and beat out one of these 3 for backup spot on the big team.
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another bad play in the field by asche in the second inning. not to excuse kendrick’s crappiness (he looks like a AAA pithcer right now), but this might be the worst i’ve seen this team play in all facets of the game in decades.
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John, I don’t think we’re that far apart on what the team should do in the short run, but I think mds’ point is a good one, in that, while Asche and Ruf deserve their shot, their upside is probably below that of Howard/Utley/Werth/Victorino. And that goes double for the other prospects in the upper minors, with the possible exception of Franco.
That’s really the reason for pessimism in the short run – we’re still waiting for the next group of stars.
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I agree individually and additively, Ruf, Asche, and any combo of Revere, Rupp, or Valle do not have the upside of that group. This team will need to manage differently with the type of depth that is being developed. Right now, Brown and Ruf are the future 4 and 5 hole hitters with Revere and Hernandez giving you the speed up top. They may need to get creative in trading for a 3-hole hitter to replace Utley long term, unless Franco, Dugan, or Altherr make the leap. I am hoping Sandberg or Soscia (if fired by the Angels) will have the guts to move Rollins, Utley, and Howard in the lineup.
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One of the most reasonable, well thought out posts I’ve read this year.
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Interesting thoughts from Jim Fregosi regarding the imprtance of platoons in the NL (at least in his opinion). I am not looking to rehash the long-standing criticism of Charlie in this regard. But it does seem that that platoon route at a couple of positions might be the way to go considering the lack of high-end FA help available.
“I’ve always thought in the National League if you can, [you should] have two platoon situations or three platoon situations,” Fregosi said Saturday. “You have 13 players on your club. You very seldom use the second catcher because you’ve got to save him. But you keep the other 12 players sharp with the platoon, because the extra players in the National League are the ones that win games for you.”
http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-should-platoon-darin-ruf-ryan-howard
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“Since 2011, the first full season after he signed his five-year, $125 million contract extension, Howard has hit .197 against lefties with 139 strikeouts and 20 walks. He’s struck out in exactly 40 percent of his plate appearances vs. southpaws and homered just 3.4 percent of the time.”
I think back to the 93 team. If I recall, you had Incaviglia and Thompson who largely platooned, and Eisenreich and Wes Chamberlain (hey – that’s me.. well, really not me – but my screen name)
copying from the interweb:
Manager Jim Fregosi squeezed additional runs out of his team by utilizing platoons in left and right field as well as second base and shortstop. As a result, the Phillies had the best OPS in the league against right-handed pitching (.765) and the second-highest OPS against lefties (.802). In left field, Pete Incaviglia handled lefties (.904 OPS) while Milt Thompson faced mostly right-handers (.745 OPS). In right field, Jim Eisenreich faced right-handers (.816) and Wes Chamberlain faced lefties (.986).
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I would be all in favor of a platoon situation. The reality is that Howard just cannot hit lefties. Sit him against lefties, and put someone (Ruf?) over there. This is not 2007.
I suspect that you can also find a number of players on the FA market with strong splits to one side who would be affordable. Take one guy who hits lefties, and one guy who hits righties – put the 2 together, and you have a borderline star, likely at a decent figure.
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“I suspect that you can also find a number of players on the FA market with strong splits to one side who would be affordable.”
That’s sort of my thought though I haven’t yet taken a good solid look at potential names.
I would be in the marke for LH and RH outfielders with good splits. You could run platoons at 1B, LF, and 3B. Maybe even catcher. No question the becnh could use a major improvement.
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Must re-sign the Schwimmer!!!!
Please Please (hahaha I said Please)…
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IS THE DOUBLE ‘M’ SHWIMMER ANY RELATION TO THE SINGLE ‘M’ SHWIMER?
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Phillies DFA Laynce Nix – activate DBrown
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Oh man…cannot believe it, a negative WAR and we let him go!
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I think it’s going to be a fluid roster from here on out. Wonder if we could take advantage of our low standings to claim anyone of value passing through waivers. Was looking at 2015 FAs but no one really stands out
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Omar Infante would be an inexpensive value sign with plenty of versitility.
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Thanks for GREAT news . It is about a year late but….
Why you would sign a fringe guy to a two year contract is beyond me.
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Darin Ruf in right field tonight because – wait…what? Why? Umm…why?
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Delmon may have been teaching Ruf the intricacies of RF and gave his full endorsement.
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Great quotes today from Ruf. I really do not know why you’d put him in RF. IMHO Dom Brown should have never left RF. I did not not think that he butchered the position but them again I don’t watch every game and I am not a scout….so……my opinion doesn’t really mean much.
“Hopefully I will be able to learn on the fly and pick it up pretty quickly,” Ruf said.
Ruf said he’ll talk with both Brown and Delmon Young, who have played both corner spots.
But he also realizes that when he gets in between the lines, he’ll be all by himself in a new spot. “I guess I’ll find out (what it’s like),” Ruf said. “I think when you are playing left field, lefties’ balls tend to slice to the line, in right field, righties’ balls … so it is kind of reversed a little bit. But hopefully I will pick it up quickly and the reads and routes will just kind of, once I am out there, be similar to left, I guess.”
from Dave Murphy
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err from Murphy’s blog but written by Ryan Lawrence
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Right field is waaaaay closer to 1B than left field. Maybe Cholly’s a tactical genius …
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I’m so confused… WTF does 1B have anything to do with RF?
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Because Ruf is a 1B and he’s now playing RF tonight instead of LF, which was already a stretch. It’s a joke. As in RF is PHYSICALLY closer to 1B than LF.
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Ruf can play 1B ????
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Sorry Supra … I forgot the smiley. 🙂
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Could I get some opinions on Darin Ruf? Is he for real? Could he be a major league starter on a good team? What would his slash look like? How many homeruns could be expected from him annually? (Assuming he doesnt platoon, because if he hits well Amaro will say he is the future of the outfield)
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His strikeout rate against RHPs is near 30% both in the minors and majors this year. He really cannot play the OF with average defense. All told he is a platoon 1B, something this team could use with Howard
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I guess you don’t like his .982 OPS against righties and the fact that Ruf is one of the few hitters that looks like he knows what he is doing. Ruf should be our full time left fielder for the next 5 years.
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Vs RHP in the Majors:
.339/.438/.548, that looks nice, .475 BABIP (that isn’t sustainable in any sense of the word), 27% strikeout rate (he has been doing that for a while now)
Vs RHP in the Minors:
.259/.333/.409, .355 BABIP (higher than you expect at the major league level), 29% strikeout rate
If we set his BABIP to .320 which is still is high for a slow slugger his line is .255/.336/.438 against RHP in the majors which is close to his minor league mark, especially when you start accounting for small sample size variations (like getting hit by 3 pitches in this time period).
In the end you cannot ignore the past or underlying stats because the surface fits the narrative you want.
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‘He really cannot play the OF with average defense’….lump him with the following other LFers then: Pierre, Burrell, Ibanez, the Bull, Jefferies, Lonnie Smith, Wes Covington, Pete Incaviglia, Tony Longmire, Frank Thomas, Ron Gant etc etc etc.
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There’s a good chance that Matt is correct, but let me give you the more optimistic version.
While Ruf will not maintain his current line – his BABIP is .412 – even regressing the BABIP leaves him, on this year’s numbers with a very impressive line. Impressive enough to be an above average regular in LF as long as the defense is at least adequate, i.e., a little bit below average).
More specifically: His BB% is up to 12.5%, his K% is down to 27.1%, and his ISO is up to .235. Regress the BABIP to a still optimistic but achievable .320, and that yields a line of .261/.355/.496. As a hitter, that would be the third best LF in the league this year (edging out Brown and Upton).
That said, there are reasons to be skeptical that he can do that. Or, to put it another way, he may well regress in other areas not just his BABIP. The above is, after all, based on only 96 PA. He does have weaknesses that may well be exploited.
He’ll get 50 more games to prove himself, and, given the team’s corner OF hole and the lack of good options internally and in the FA market, he’ll have a shot at winning a corner OF job in 2014. He still faces an uphill battle, but I’m a little more optimistic than Matt.
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As you say, we’ll better be able to answer questions on Ruf at the end of the season. Assuming he remains an everyday or nearly everyday player the rest of the season, you will have a 1/2 season’s worth of games and ABs going to back to last year with which to evaluate him. That’s a pretty decent sample. As MAtt sayys, he needs to cut down on the K’s a bit
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That was me.
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A few things leave me optimistic. First, for a guy who never played the outfield before last year and looked dreadful (really, really dreadful) there in spring training, he has come light years in a few months, which suggest to me that he’s quite a good athlete. Not speedy of course, but a very good athlete, which means that with training he can hopefully be just below average and not bad. Second, of course the strikeouts are a big concern and there’s no doubt that teams are going to be looking for holes in his swing (he struggles waiting on good curve balls, that’s for sure and I’m not certain whether he can make the proper adjustments), but, as a hitter, Ruf passes the “eye test” about as well as anyone we’ve had here since Utley joined the team. Ruf’s at bats are consistently the best on this team. He has a clear plan at the plate. He lays off close pitches. His plate coverage is excellent. His balance is very good. His power is real and he hits the ball to all fields. And I think he is very good at absorbing instruction and pre-game notes. I expect Ruf to continue to surprise us as a hitter and I think there could be some 30–35 homer seasons hidden in this guy and, boy, he’s fun to watch. What a breath of fresh air.
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Thanks for the posts guys, would definitely be interesting to see what he can do the rest of this year
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So Ben Badler said that the Red Sox are likely to officially sign Devers Friday and that he’d be shocked if the Phillies don’t sign Encarnacion.
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Ruf’s OBP over .400 maybe we should give the guy a chance to play whether in RF or LF or CF or catcher. 33 game streak of reaching base at least once dating back to last year. Let him hit I’m glad he’s in RF and not on the bench. Lets see what we got.
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He’s going to have the rest of the season to play. I don’t think anyone doubts his ability to mash left handed pitching. People worry about his defense, his strikeouts, etc though
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Why the heck is Rollins batting 3-hole tonight???!!! Hopefully this game will allow Asche to getting settled in with the bat and help with the glove. Ruf is still hitting well, while playing in RF! Really enjoying his short term success and he seems to be a guy you want on your club.
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Phillies trying to blow this game.
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Papelbon will be chased out of this city if he continues this path.
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The tank is in full force.
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Here are 2 of the best platoons on the FA market (however they prob wouldn’t sign on to platoon)
Mike Morse – .303/.357/.515 career vs LHP
Kendry Morales – .290/.343/.509 career vs RHP
Or
Corey Hart – .300/.370/.526 career vs LHP
David Murphy – .286/.350/.476 career vs RHP
The 1993 team who had both corner OF spots platooning here are their year totals
RF – .302/.344/.476 w 195 Hits, 85 Runs, 37 Doubles 19 HR, 99 RBI
LF – .272/..332/.455 w 190 Hits, 102 Runs, 30 Doubles, 28 HR, 133 RBI
their numbers would have better then several All Star OF’ers from the same year.
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A drawback of a platoon system. However, the notion of a platoon sounds great on paper, which is why managers are so often confronted with questions about them. And there’s a reason why the general reaction of said managers is to recoil in disgust, to deny the existence or contemplation of anything resembling the platoon in question. Because managers know that games aren’t played on paper, or in a vacuum, and when you start to consider the logistics of platoons in actual game situations, particularly National League game situations, you realize their drawbacks. For starters, let’s be clear: regardless of what you want to call the staffing situation at a given position, the success or failure of said position is going to decided largely on the personnel’s ability to hit right-handed pitching. Last year, 2012, 70.2 percent of the Phillies’ 6,172 plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. Because, obviously, the vast majority of pitchers are right-handed. So when you talk about a platoon, you are really talking about a rotation where, in a vacuum, one player is expected to garner three-quarters of the playing time. And in a true platoon, that hitter is the left-handed hitter.
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Also in regards to our farm system and the guys at the upper levels. Ashe and Hernandez would be solid guys on teams who already have big bats 3-5 where they could slide in as (Ashe) the 7th hole hitter or (Hernandez) as a 8th hole hitter. They have had solid numbers in the minors but just aren’t going to be great MLB starters, serviceable is a better term for them. Franco on the other hand has 3-5 hole potential. Wouldn’t mind seeing Ashe try 2B again (I realized they tried him there before and he failed miserably, but also heard that he didn’t want to be there. Well with Franco knocking at the door he might just be ok with moving if it means playing) and if not there try the OF or move Franco to LF, he has the arm to play any Of spot but is terribly slow thus LF being the most likely option. We’ve had Ibanez and Burrell out there, can’t imagine Franco could be any worse.
I would also let Martin finish out the year as a starter and if he can find his command then leave him there but if not then he needs to be in the pen. Did anyone notice how his fastball lost a MPH per inning? I’ve seen him throw in AAA and it does the same there so it wasn’t a rush he had from his first start. His 93-95 MPH FB as a starter plays up at 96-98 as a RP and he’d be able to scrap a secondary offering and focus on one other MAYBE two others secondary pitches.
It’s going to be interesting to see what they do at the back of their rotation. Call me crazy but I think Halladay shows them enough to get an incentive laden 1yr deal w a team option for a 2nd (at a decent chunk of change, maybe 5-7m . . Obviously only picking it up if he throws well in 2014). The interesting part will be the back end . . Lee, Hamels, Halladay, MAG are the 1-4 then they have Kendrick, Lannan, Pettitebone, Martin, Morgan and MAYBE Biddle (however he’ll most likely be slotted for AAA after the way he’s been pitching) but that still makes it interesting. Do they go cheap and finish the rotation off with a Pettibone or Martin (or Pettibone/Morgan) or do they pay some money with Kendrick or Lannan (who would still be cheap but not as cheap as the younger guys) ? I’d rather see Martin or Morgan if I had my druthers (learned that word from RAJ and I hate myself everything I use it haha).
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“Also in regards to our farm system and the guys at the upper levels. Ashe and Hernandez would be solid guys on teams who already have big bats 3-5 where they could slide in as (Ashe) the 7th hole hitter or (Hernandez) as a 8th hole hitter.”
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That’s really the issue. Starting Hernandez would mean you are likley getting ML average or below average production from CF, 1B, C, 2B, SS, and one of the corner OF spots- maybe even 3B.
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Todd Zolecki reported this morning that Cuban Pitcher Gonzalez deal may not happen.
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Miguel Gonzalez negotiations hit a snag. Wonder if this saves us some money
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130806&content_id=56070666¬ebook_id=56077680&vkey=notebook_phi&c_id=phi
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I would imagine any “snag” is related to the elbow….
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Right – I see some money coming off the table at the very least. Will be interesting to see how this develops. On a positive note, I read elsewhere that Encarnacion is expected to sign with the Phils this week. I think he’s eligible on Friday
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They better get more then Luis Encarnacion, especially if he goes for the 1.3M as projected. They have 2.9M allocated. If the Sox do not go for Devers I would sign him for the remaining bonus allocation.And I don’t mean a dozen or so of the 50K or less players.
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Devers is expected to sign with the Sox on Friday. Also the Phillies still have plenty of time to use their international money.
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Time is not the issue, quality is the issue. You want future impact players. Franco is an anomaly. Ruiz also, with a short shining star baseball existence. Then you have the Castros, Galvis’, Hernandez, and so on. Lets hope Tocci, Pujols, Grullon and maybe Encarnacion change that. Incidentally, they are the four highest interantional bonus $$$ that have been used by the Phillies to date.
So add one more this year with the remaining money from the Encarnacion signing….like the Rangers are doing, and the Cubs with Epstein’s plan in hand.
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No, they are not the 4 highest international bonus $ to date.
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Who are then?
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Carlos Rodriguez got $700,000 to sign as a 16 year old during the Ed Wade era.
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And the two Korean pitchers and Josue Perez for approx 1M back in the late90s era.
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Steve, agree with you that the Phillies will not let this deal fall through by maybe adding less guaranteed money and more performance incentives if his elbow is somewhat sound.
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I have a question about how well the Phillies team doctors are regarded as Wilton Lopez is still pitching for the Colorado Rockies. Lopez is not having a good season(4.53 ERA and no saves in four chancesin 55 games) at all but has not gone on the DL at all this year either and all he would have cost us was Sebastian Valle and another player(not sure who it was). I still think Gonzalez will sign with us but at slightly lower dollars because no one else will give that contract and the Phillies need to make International Free Agent signings matter.
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For what its worth it was Tyler Cloyd
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Thanks I was not sure who it was.
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The injury doesn’t need to be so bad that he can’t physically get the ball to home plate. Why in the world would you want a guy who has performed as Lopez has. We’ve seen lots of pitchers pitch with arm injuries of various severities or less than complete recoveries form elbow or especially shoulder surgery. They may never regain the velocity they once had, the control may be the primary thing that departs, the stamina may be down. Just because he is pitching, doesn’t mean Lopez’s arm is healthy. Many pitchers pitch through a lot of pain until they absolutely no longer can. I wouldn’t assume that the Phillies doctors were wrong about Lopez. If you want to blame them for something, blame them for Garcia or for allowing all the injections to Howard’s heel.
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Although, in concept, I like the idea of acquiring a front line pitcher for cash only, without using or surrendering a draft pick, I agree that the team should be extremely careful with this type of contract given the dollars that have been discussed. If Gonzalez is not healthy and does not have clear #2 upside, the money can probably be better spent elsewhere. In other words, the idea is great, but it still has to be an intelligent use of money, especially since this team is often bumping up against real or self-imposed spending limitations.
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If he has elbow/ligament issues now….then Tommy John him now and he will be pitching in another year or so.
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Well that could be a revision to the suggested contract. Same $ but add a year to the contract so he can get surgery and then recuperate on his own dime. The signing bonus will give him enough $ that he won’t starve.
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“Saves us money” for what? Re-signing Michael Young?
The obsession with money in the Phillies blogosphere as the cause and solution to all the organization’s woes needs to stop. The Gonzalez signing is a great example of how money *can* be used to improve the team; “freeing up” cash in a vacuum (like the people who wanted to trade prospects with Ryan Howard to clear his contract) is pointless and actively counterproductive for a team that needs to be competitive to keep fans interested.
There aren’t good free agents anymore. The organization doesn’t need more salary space, it needs better scouts.
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Rich – if he’s damaged goods, it’s a save. Even if less than damaged, does the reported offer of $48 million end up being closer to $20 million? Again, a save. I was not contending that it was wasteful money to begin with though – I liked the signing and was only considering it a save in comparison to the originally reported offer of $48mil
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That’s fair, and I’m certainly not in favor of wasting money on a guy if he’s not worth it. I think some other folks have the attitude that if it weren’t for the team’s current salary obligations, they could spend their way back into contention.
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I hear you. I’m not one of them.
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Nice link but I almost choked. In Laynce vs Nix matter.
“Added Phillies manager Charlie Manuel: “Nix already had a contract, and Nix was a proven bat off the bench.”
Why would ANYONE say that!
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Cholly’s like that guy at the office who has already put in his two weeks notice. I wouldn’t be surprised if he started using his sick days before long.
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Utley resigned for 2 years, at about 10 per. Reasonable contract that makes sense for both sides.
I just hope the “snag” with MAG’s contract doesn’t have anything to do with Utley’s extension.
Lets just get Encarnacion locked up.
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Rosenthal is reporting its two years with the total guaranteed money being between 25-30 million. Still, it’s an excellent deal. He’s still among the game’s best second basemen, the commitment is short-term, and he brings intangibles that cannot be replaced.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/chase-utley-philadelphia-phillies-nearing-contract-extension-080713
Re: MAG — I doubt the two are related. If anything, the snag has to do with something they discovered during the wait time for him to get his visa … the elbow, perhaps?
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Mike, that commitment was there when Utley knocked the Cubs catcher out of the game when he tried to score and the catcher blocked the entire plate. Utley was out but I bet the catcher never does that again. That hit was something that Brian Dawkins would be proud of.
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Larry Bowa told a story about Utley from when he was a rookie. Uts was dropping his knee into guys when they slid into second base. Bowa warned him against doing it, saying that it would piss the players on other teams off. Utley’s response: “F@*# them.”
Love Chase Utley.
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Based ont eh various reports it looks like 2 years and something approaching $30M, with some sort of incentive based option. Good bit of business- supposed to be announced today, probably before the game.
Interesting that Amaro offered to trade him at the deadline but Utley wanted an extnesion instead. Probably would have gotten more in the open market.
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2 @ 27M….13.5 per year.
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I heard this morning it was 2 years, $27 million with multiple vesting options – even if it’s $30 million, it pretty much right in line with what we’ve been expecting and, while there’s always a risk with Utley because of his knee, it appears that he has the knee problem under control and that he can continue to play going forward. If he plays only 120-135 games a year, however, he’s likely to be well worth the salary as he continues to play at a star’s pace (5-6 WAR a year) when on the field.
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Absolutely. There were reports that the Dodgers were interested in him for about 3 years 45 million. Now that could just be conjecture, but the fact that there was smoke means something. If that’s what he was looking at on the open market, that’s two hometown discounts for Utley in his career in Philly. That’s phenomenal.
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At the end of the day I think most professional athletes have a goal of winning a championship. Now obviously I’m sure they’d like to win as many as possible, but just chasing that one/first championship is a big deal. Chase Utley isn’t Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay. He’s got a World Series ring. He’s been here for a decade. He and his wife are very involved with charity in the community so it’s not shocking he’d want to finish his career here even if deep down he thought the next 3 years would be worse than the last 3 years record wise.
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Michael Young cleared waivers and can be dealt to anyone.
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wonder if he’ll be traded very soon. i wouldn’t be surprised.
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I’m not so sure. If someone wanted him they would have claimed him
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Was thinking the same thing mds. Yankees may no longer be a player and I suspect the Sox may be calling up Bogaerts. Perhaps Texas in light of Cruz’s suspension becomes a possibility?
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Phils sign Casper Wells. For me, this undoubtedly signals the end of DYoung’s time with the Phils. Corresponding move yet to be officially announced
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Hopefully that move will not come back to haunt them
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you mean signing wells and dropping young? i can’t wait for d. young to be gone.
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I think they will DFA D Young not Martinez. I think they owe Delmon an additional bonus if he gets another 20 or so ABs. Plus he can’t catch and he will not start any more
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fine with me. 🙂
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or the end of Michael Martinez’s time . . . either way, Phillies fans are excited for Casper Wells. The same Casper Wells who couldn’t stick with 4 other teams this year. . . but is a huge upgrade over martinez
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DYoung DFA’d today
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First major league homer for Asche
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Here’s 3-3 with a homer, double and single. Ruf is 2-3 with a homer and a single. I’ve been saying this for a year now – don’t underestimate Asche. If Asche and Ruf stick (and I expect they will, quite easily thank you), when Revere returns, the team will, in the course of a year, replaced half the line-up with younger, more able players. It’s a good start given the team’s desperate need to get younger and less expensive. Not bad.
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I’m pretty high on Asche. I think his bat could potentially work in the OF if they need to move him and don’t want to trade him. He wouldn’t have the potential monster seasons that other corner OFers that are high upside guys might, but he would probably give consistent average-above average performance with the bat.
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At least they’ll have a couple of years to evaluate a possible OF switch (at least the rest of this year and all of next year)
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Domo could go to RF next year. He said the other day it doesn’t make any difference to him whether he is in LF or RF, when someone asked him about Ruf’s RF debut and the adlustments required..
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isn’t his arm more of a weapon in LF?
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Arm is more important for RF. This is for the throws to third base.
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Brown’s arm is stronger then Ruf’s. Rightfielders traditionally have had the strongest arms, part of which is for the long-toss to third.
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thanks! you learn something new everyday. 🙂
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Article on Philly. com. (http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Concern-for-Tommy-Joseph-Cesar-Hernandez-close-to-return.html) is disturbing on a couple of levels. First,It is disturbing that Tommy Joseph’s third concussion is still keeping him out and may force him to play a different position. One wonders if RAJ was informed that Joseph had two previous concussions and acquired him to catch anyway. Those two concussions should have been a red flag. It is also disturbing that the reason that the Phillies are playing Cesar Hernandez in CF is that “The Phillies are experimenting with the second baseman’s versatility with hopes of making him a utility player in the majors”. Is he really going to be a serious utility player if he has virtually never played shortstop, third base or first base? Second base and center field seems like an odd combination that will probably not be sufficient for him to make the roster as a back up.
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It doesn’t hurt to increase his versatility regardless. More trade value that way.
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Venn Biter with a nice start to his pro career. Hope we see more of him over the last month or so
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My bet is that Tommy Joseph, after 6 months recup will be catching again in the spring. And at 22-years old he will still be young for AAA. and can split the duties for awhile.
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I think that’s the most likely result too. He should refrain from any physical activity which could cause concussion symptoms until he’s 100 percent. Good chance he’s back next spring and ready to roll, but he has to be careful about things like blocking the plate (seriously) and he should get the most high tech faceguard available to reduce shock from foul tips.
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It should surprise no one, given my past posts, that I like the Utley re-signing. Here’s another guy who likes it:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/in-support-of-a-ruben-amaro-transaction/
Some might dismiss that as just another stat guy in mom’s basement weighing in, but Cameron has been quite critical of the Phillies for not trading off their veterans (as he reminds us in the article).
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I’m convinced anyone displeased with the Utley re-signing is a member of the “get young for young’s sake” crowd or are of the opinion Utley is in decline, not realizing that his personal decline is way better than most other player’s primes currently.
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When I wrote this I hadn’t looked at the details of how the deal was structured (I had a busy day and hadn’t yet seen the update). Seeing how this deal is structured makes it look even better. This is the model of how to structure a contract for an older star with health issues.
I guess in theory Utley could enjoy incredibly good health but decline sharply. That (IMO unlikely) possibility aside, this is a VERY good contract for the Phillies. (Good for Utley as well, if one assumes (a) he’s already rich enough that an extra million or ten has low marginal utility for him, and (b) he is highly motivated to finish his career in Philadelphia.)
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I agree Larry. The vesting options also speak to Utley’s confidence that he can stay on the field. Win for both sides
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Looking at the FA 2B there is no one worth signing and that leaves Galvis or Hernandez as the internal option, so this was the correct move. An Incentive laden contract that rewards him for being Utley and protects them if his knees are an issue, then we get to see what Hernandez can do anyway and we are not on the hook for that much. The reward is worth the minimal risk.
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How often is it that the juxtaposition of a teams greatest SS and their greatest 2B share the same era but are complete opposites in personality.
If there is a market for Cesar the Phillies should take it for a piece they need.
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Though SSS, Ruf has certainly come around. Split by almost a year, total MLB PAs 142, 9 HRs and an ISO over .250. Hopefully he keeps it up.
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We’ll have a better idea at the end of the season. He’s going to have his chances. Even so we have to be careful not to fall into the JMJ trap with Ruf.
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Ba reporting that the Phillies signed encarnacion for 1 million
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Here is the non-pay report from BA
Dominican third baseman Luis Encarnacion became eligible to sign when he turned 16 at midnight. The Phillies struck quickly, signing Encarnacion for $1 million.
Enarnacion, the No. 4 international prospect for July 2, is one of the top hitters in Latin America. At 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, Enarnacion has a track record of hitting in games with plus raw power from the right side. His value is entirely in his offense, as he projects to move to left field or first base. Encarnacion trains with Juan Herrera, who is known as “Mon,” and plays in the International Prospect League.
Baseball America subscribers can access a complete scouting report on Encarnacion, along with reports on more of the top international prospects on the market.
The post Phillies Sign No. 4 International Prospect Luis Encarnacion appeared first on BaseballAmerica.com.
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I am sure there will be great sorrow by some:
The Phillies announced that they have designated Delmon Young for assignment in order to clear a roster spot for Casper Wells, who was claimed off waivers from the White Sox this week.
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An utterly predictable season from Delmon…
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If you take away his fluke 2010, it is remarkable how close Young’s 2013 numbers are compared to his career averages
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Ruben keeps trying to re-create the magic. He just keeps coming up short with the moves that he thinks will be the key to success. Has there ever been a more hard-working GM!
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In other Waiver Wire news, the Rays designated Kyle Farnsworth for assignment. He was the closer for them two years ago and could help the Phillies.
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Not much of a point seeing as how they need guys for the future, for next year and beyond. They don’t need him for the rest of this season and it’s likely he’s nearing the end of his career.
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I just want them to get him so we can see him fight guys from the Braves or Nationals. Sign him up!
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catch…did not realize you have so much pent up anger inside you! Farnsworth is not a hockey player.
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This clip suggests otherwise:
I am not a big baseball fight guy (most are a bunch of show with little substance. The tackle by Farnsworth, on the other hand, was quite impressive)
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Farnsworth is the official ” bad ass” of major league baseball. A well know tough guy “individualist” who is a cut 6’4″ 235 pounds with legitimate MMA fighting skills. A dude you don’t want to see in a back alley and the last guy you would charge on the mound.
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Of course my comment was a joke.
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Casper Wells why?
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The got him cheaper than paying delmon young a roster bonus of 150,000 next week, or 19 more at bats. saved them some money.
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GCL Article:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130811_Promotion_of_prospects_a_key_topic_of_discussion.html
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