Nice AAA debut for David Buchanan. I would guess he’s a big league arm at some point in 2014-2015 – whether it’s for the Phils or not remains to be seen. There would seem to be a ton of guys ahead of him on the depth chart for starting roles, but you never know when he might be called upon for a bullpen role. Kelly Dugan with his 4th HR in AA – his AA OPS climbs close to .800 in over 100PAs. And Dylan Cozens’ 2-run double was plenty for Drew Anderson and the Cutters bullpen, as they blanked the Staten Island Yankees.
We’re in the home stretch here, folks. Basically 4 weeks left in the stateside MiLB seasons, 3 weeks of the DSL, from what I can tell, and today is the last day of the VSL season. VSL Phils did not make the playoffs there.
Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.
http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130804
Phuture Phillies 
Good to see Dugan’s K rate decrease after the promotion. If he keeps it under 20% and keeps that ISO near .200 even with a low walk rate – that’s Adam Jones, Carlos Beltran production.
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Kelly Dugan: the Carlos Beltran of the Eastern League. I like it.
(You weren’t, like, saying he was going to be the Beltran of the *National* League, right? Right?!)
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Well its not unheard of for prospects to maintain production from the minors to the majors. Here’s hoping. Carlos Beltran was also a GG Center Fielder and a future hall of famer, I was just referencing his stats from this year.
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Nik – you must be kidding. You can’t compare a player’s MLB stats vs. another player’s minor league stats. The Beltran comp is horrible. Not even close.
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I wasnt suggesting he’s going to be Beltran in the majors, just providing a baseline what a >20%K and .200 ISO with a medicore walk rate translates to.
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Yeah the problem, and I don’t mean to pile on, is that, on a career basis Beltran has a 16.1% K rate and 10.1% BB rate.
Dugan has been a bit of a moving target as of late in terms of his performance, in a mostly good way. But if you look at his A+ performance, the type of player you’re looking at (again, going with your comp of minor league stats to major league stats) is more a Ryan Raburn type (in terms of the batting line), with maybe a few more BB. Of course, the hope is that, with continual development time, he improves to the extent that he actually betters his A+ performance in the majors – which DOES happen sometimes. But it’s unusual, which is why I’m less high on him than some people are.
Really his AA performance is odd enough that there aren’t really comps, but that doesn’t mean anything given the SSS.
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(Since you threw out a comparison and since I am admittedly a Dugan pusher)
Raburn seems like a good example of what a mediocre version of Kelly Dugan could look like (say, if he hits his 40th percentile of the various possible outcomes). If you look at his batting lines, Raburn took several critical years of development to consolidate his approach at the plate to the point that it was major league quality. Between the ages of 23-25, his progress more or less seems to have stagnated. At 26, he seems to have finally gotten over the hump, but not surprisingly, that was a little late for him to really make an impact in the Major Leagues.
That development path could certainly happen to Dugan, but I’d say Dugan, in his age 22 season, is materially ahead of Raburn in performance to date. He was also a relatively high draft pick out of HS, whereas Raburn was a 5th round college senior pick, so I’m guessing the natural tools favor Dugan. Provided Dugan doesn’t similarly stagnate, he has very good chance to be substantially better than Raburn.
And with all that said, Ryan Raburn has had several relatively valuable seasons (which could have been even better if he wasn’t a negative dWAR player). And that’s a disappointing scenario for Dugan.
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First of all, this is why I don’t like comps. EVERY COMP to a major league player is going to make the prospect look better than he really is, for the simple reason that most prospects fail, and comping them to one of the few exceptions to that rule skews expectations. In fact, if you want to know why so many of my projections seem to be pessimistic, it’s because of this one key insight (not that it’s a brilliant insight, it’s a big part of why the “experts” are less optimistic than the typical fan). I brought the comp up only to say that, following Nik’s rules, Raburn is a better comp than Beltran.
Anyway, the comp is apples and oranges. You seem to be saying that the developmental path cuts in Dugan’s favor; I think it cuts both ways and makes comps difficult. There’s two issues here. Probably the biggest one is that Radburn got stuck at AAA for 3 years. I’m not sure what that unusual fact tells us about Dugan’s chances. Also, Raburn is a late developing college kid. I don’t really you can compare him to Dugan on a year to year development path basis. Moreover, his AA season as a 23 year old was really quite good – quite similar to what Dugan did in A+ this year but with more BB. An optimist could use that to suggest that it’s a good comp, but you’re saying even more than that, you’re saying that a Raburn career for Dugan would be “disappointing.”
The BB’s is another reason why the comp may not be so favorable to Dugan – Raburn’s minor league BB rates were consistently better than Dugan’s.
I wouldn’t assume a defensive edge to Dugan either. Raburn was a guy who could, in addition to corner OF, play second base, third base and center field. Notably, as an outfielder the metrics show Raburn better than average; his negative defensive runs are from other positions. Just assuming an edge to Dugan seems optimistic.
I would instead say that If Dugan reaches 70 to 80 percent of his ceiling he can be Radurn. 90 to 95% is Art’s projection. 40% is an AAAA guy.
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Well, given all those words, you’d think you didn’t make the comp. Frankly, it’s pretty insufferable to read most of your response. You hate comps, except when you make comps, which is only ever when someone else makes a silly comp and you feel compelled to make a less silly comp. Got it.
That being said, obviously, you didn’t have to write all that just to say you think less of Dugan. That was clear from your first post, which I was disagreeing with (sort of a logical flow to discourse, no?). I don’t find the stats you cite very compelling, nor do I think you do much to dispute the notion that if we’re gonna comp Raburn (I know, you hate comps, even your comps. we get it), that Dugan comes off looking quite well. That being said, I also don’t think your expectations are unreasonable. I just think there is some good reason to think more of his upside than you and others give credit.
And not withstanding your self-admitted not brilliant insight, that comping MLBers leads to over-optimistic projections (even comps you made!) I think when you get to 22 year olds in AA you can start to make draw some more definitive conclusions. The fact of the matter is, the majority of 22 year olds who hit in AA make it to the bigs in one form or another (and thus are reasonably subject to MLB comps). I am definitely on the optimistic side on Dugan (I might throw a Josh Reddick comp out there GOD FORBID), but I realize that I think more of him than most.
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You know, I guess there’s some unwritten rule around here that says, just because I have on occasions (rarely lately) written some intemperate comments, that it’s perfectly all right to respond rudely to perfectly polite comments that I make.
Guess I just need to add you to the list of rude people it isn’t worth talking to.
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And thus on the substance not much will be said, but I admit I can’t resist a parting shot: if by “22 year olds who hit in AA,” you mean the decent but not spectacular hitting (at this point, 18% better than the average hitter in his league) in a SSS in AA that Dugan is exhibiting, I would think that … well, I won’t even say most, but many … prospects who do that will indeed make it to the majors in SOME capacity. But 22 year olds who have that level of SSS success in AA at that age probably become decent regulars about 20% of the time. If that. Dugan’s performance as a 22 YO in AA is encouraging but by no means exceptional. If we’re playing the comp game, let’s compare him to Laynce Nix, who had an AA season as a 22 YO that was across the board a bit better than Dugan’s so far (and sustained for 375 PA.)
Don’t get me wrong, Nix has had a nice little career, but if you think Raburn is the “disappointing” outcome, you might want to take a look at Nix’ numbers.
I hope I’m … well, I won’t even say wrong, because I definitely think he does have a shot, so wrong isn’t the right word. I hope he beats the odds.
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How does this non-collegiate player project/comp to a major league career based on his first approx.1300 PAs in the minors:
PAs-1294…XBH-99…BB-8%…K—16%….261/.332/.445/.777
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Please feel free to add me to any list you see fit. I’m not exactly a regular poster around here. Anyways, people who keep lists reminds me of that great cameo Steve Buscemi had in Billy Madison (you’re in the Steve Buscemi role here), so bully for you.
At any rate, I don’t see much to your “parting shot” except that you managed to make yet another comp. Mystifying. At any rate, if there is any unwritten rule you should embrace, it’s that making hypocritical, holier-than-thou posts often leads to indignant responses.
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But it is apples and oranges. Not a good example.
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Beltran has a career BB/K ratio of 0.65, which is quite a bit above average. He’s sitting at 0.30 this year, but that’s a huge outlier over the course of his career.
Dugan’s BB/K is 0.14 so far in AA. Not good at all.
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I was looking at this year’s stats.
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I also don’t see Dugan having a BB% under 3%. He should settle somewhere in the 6% range. I gave him a benefit of the doubt there.
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Sure, but I also expect his K rate to go.
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Why won’t you let me pick and choose the stats I like in peace 🙂
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Cozens also had a pretty good catch in the 9th.
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I feel like Cozens is due for a big month. He’s admitted to having a poor approach yet he’s put up solid numbers. He can make a huge step forward when things start clicking.
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Fangraphs write-up on some of our AA guys:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-stock-watch-philadelphia-phillies/
Nothing groundbreaking, but I think its always good to have unbiased perspectives.
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He’s pretty down on Franco, although he appears not to have heard about the ABS before going to the game.
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I think it’s more that an ABS is different than what he saw.
I’ve seen the swing described several different ways. Almost everyone seems to think there’s something wrong with it, but they can’t seem to agree on what it is.
I wouldn’t say he’s down on Franco, more that he has some things to work on before he’s ready. Which is probably correct.
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I swear Franco’s swing is going to take over for the Rizzoti can’t play the field at all discussion on here. Larry correctly points out
“I wouldn’t say he’s down on Franco, more that he has some things to work on before he’s ready. Which is probably correct.”
That is the common thread between most reports on his swing that i have seen. When scouting a prospect you need to point out the potential areas of failure in their game. None of them are saying this is what he is going to be as a final product but these are areas that can/will be exploited by better pitching. Very few guys are good enough to overcome the holes. Then a few like Dom/Halladay reach the point of failure go down fix their issues and come back better. Most Flame out. The Majority of reports also state he has the talent to be special and if he fixes his approach and quiets his hands a little in his swing he will greatly increase his odds of reaching his full potential.
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The other part of this is that Franco’s stats are causing some people to expect him to arrive early and ready to go in the majors. A lot of these reports are saying that he may not be as polished and ready as people are thinking he is. Franco’s major league ETA is probably similar to what happened with Asche this year, and this not a swing and approach that are going to be smooth sailing when he reaches the majors.
This happened earlier this year where people jumped right to ace with Biddle before taking into account even AA is a difficult level with learning and adjustments. The scouting reports haven’t changed too much on Franco in the past year he is just starting to show power and hard contact. The difference is that some people jumped from 1st division regular/occasional All-Star, to superstar based on the raw numbers.
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I don’t think anyone is expecting Franco to be Rizzotti, but the over-reaction to him on the plus side may be similar. By over-reaction, I mean the demeaning of any legit tempering view about his ability and future, as with the funky swing. Franco has a lot going for him that Rizzotti did not. That said, the naysayers were 100% correct about Rizzotti — he was terrible defensively, his stats were inflated by being way too old for AA, and his offensive stats were not discounted based upon what is expected of an MLB 1B. For all these reasons, Rizzotti flamed out and his devoted boosters were proven wrong.
Unlike Rizzotti, Franco is likely to have a very solid major league career because 1) he is young for AA, 2) he plays a higher level defensive postion than Rizzotti, and 3) he is better defensively at that position than Rizzotti was at 1B. People get upset if Franco isn’t a top 50 in all of baseball prospect by acclamation of all baseball scribes and bloggers. In this indignation, they see no reason to downgrade Franco and every negative observation must be do to Phillies hatred. Franco does have negatives. He is very slow. He does have limited range. He does have the funky swing. There are a lot of top prospects in baseball and we just don’t know them as well as we know Franco and Biddle. It is no insult to be ranked 70 instead of 30. It doesn’t mean the guy at 30 will make it, while the guy at 70 won’t.
Franco has taken an incredible leap forward this year. If he repeats his performance next season, he will certainly be rewarded with a top 50 ranking. He might even be rewarded with a post-All Star call up to Philly.
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The ONLY comparison i wanted to make between Rizz and Franco is the amount of discussion of one aspect of their game we have endured on this site (ABS vs. CFaL that is Can’t Field a Lick) other than that there is no comp.
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I thought the problem with the arms barring was that it lengthened your swing. And the long swing seems to be what causes Franco to start the swing early.
Overall it seemed a pretty negative report. He basically said he doesn’t like Franco’s swing or approach.
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The thing is, both may be fixable (and the approach has been better in the past), and a guy performing that well even with the problems with the approach and swing COULD be really good if he fixes them. Or he might have lesser success even with the swing problems. (Really he fixes the approach or he isn’t going to succeed, but approach is fixable. He’s not one of those players who simply fails through poor pitch recognition and contact skills; which often can’t be fixed, quite the opposite.)
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Or, what Biancs413 said. Should have read his response first.
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There is some pitch recognition issues, but they are more blending into approach and swing length. Contact will not be an issue even with his flaws, the worry is contact will become bad contact and the power will not be present in the swing.
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Yeah, I think the “blending into the approach and contact” is the key point there, and that’s why I wouldn’t call them “pitch recognition” issues. The swing means that he has to commit early, and the approach means he often CHOOSES to commit early. But the fact that he has been as successful as he has been despite that suggests, divorced from the contact and swing issues, his pitch recognition skills are actually quite good.
Of course there were also, not long ago, some specific reports of good pitch recognition. I reconcile that with more recent reports by assuming the dynamic in the first paragraph.
It’s also worth mentioning that the approach issue really is new – he was regarded as aggressive but not to the point of precluding major league success when he was in A+. It’s really only since the promotion to AA that we’ve seen native reports about the approach. Which makes me think he can pretty easily fix the approach problems.
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swing, not contact. Must proofread better.
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saying it’s a long swing but not an ABS seems fairly in line with what Eric Longenhagen evaluated it as.
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I would have liked some more info on the last 2 ABs (At Bats not Arm Bar Swing) other than he gave them away by swinging at the first pitch. It is ok to swing at the first pitch if it is what you are looking for in the right location. Vilification of swinging at the first pitch is getting ridiculous now a days.
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Agreed. It is bad to swing at a first pitch ball or marginal strike, but to let the pitcher get ahead in the count by watching a fat one sail by on the theory that you must not swing at the first pitch is stupid.
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Nick Hanson’s been promoted to CLW. Give him a few starts there to get his feet wet. He’s earned it. Musser’s going to take his starts at LWD.
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Sorry, that should be Nic without the ‘k’. Unlike our Nik, on PhuturePhillies who has the ‘K’ but no ‘C’
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Nice. Hopefully he can maintain success as he moves up the ladder. There is an article about him over on Phoulballz that says his FB velo peaks in the low 90s, so hopefully there’s a little more that can be brought out eventually.
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Bielski and Forsythe are also on the CLW roster. They must be a fillins brought over from the GCL. that’s what we said about Serverino and he’s pretty much stayed in CLW.
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Buchanan seems like a guy who might get a cup of coffee here and there. His stats are comparable to but a little worse than Kendrick’s at AA, and Kendrick was a couple years younger.
I usually don’t pay attention to VSL box scores but I couldn’t help but notice that our slight SS Grenny Cumana was 4-4, and has an OPS over 1.000 in his last 10 games.
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Drew Anderson is really opening eyes. He and Hanson have been two pleasant surprises.
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Ugg… Bastardo.. Well, spin it as a positive.. We get to get another look at a prospect.
Looks like we are cementing a top 10 pick next year. Sign a free agent with no draft pick compensation regrets.
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I feel like we’ve seen enough bullpen prospects this year already. Most of them were obviously not ready to be called up anyway. I wonder if we’ll just Greg Smith or Mike MacDougal instead. Or maybe Rosenberg.
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Robles is next man up….
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or Savery could come off the DL.
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Could the Phillies possibly been unaware that Bastardo was part of the Biogenesis investigation and thus be caught completely unprepared?
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What should they have done to prepare? Trade Franco and Biddle for Luke Gregerson? Perhaps they lost interest in him once they figured out they were out of it.
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Crawford with a line drive double to right (he pulled it) off the Braves’ Sean Gilmartin who is rehabbing in Florida. Gilmartin was the Braves’ 5th rated prospect coming into the season and has 20 or so starts at AAA over the past few seasons including 13 this year
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and Gilmartin is a lefty
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i think its looking more and more likely that tocci will repeat lakewood
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I would not look into this last month too much with Tocci, he is definitely wearing down physically. The Phillies are well aware of it and the effects, it has little bearing on his 2014 placement.
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you think he will get a couple days off more often
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He has actually been getting more and more time off. But for a player as slight as him he has lost so much strength and weight over the season that he won’t be able to get back with just rest
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I believe a few weeks ago you posted a question asking about the folks that we were all watching over the last 2 or so months of the season. As the minor-league season winds down, it would be interesting to revisit the consensus of who we were interested in, and see how those players finished. I suspect Tocci may have been in that mix – but to your point – not really sure if we should read too much into the stretch run.
We are definitely to that time of the year where full-season players are going to show the results of a ‘long’ season. You all can probably name a few pitchers off the top of your head, but I suspect there are a few pitchers that may be approaching any innings pitched ceilings, and will be shut down.
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I think there’s a good chance that he’s just worn down right now. He only had about 100 PAs in the GCL last year and right now he’s pushing 400.
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Yup, he’s been wearing down since the end of May. Monthly OPS:
Apr: .472
May: .646
June: .575
July: .429
Aug: .237
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Florida summers are brutal!
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I would be mildly shocked if he didn’t repeat LWD.
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Does anyone really care if he repeats Lakewood? He’s super young and I don’t think it’s a step backwards
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The other 17 year old that the Phillies sent to Lakewood, Domingo Santana, had to repeat. It wasn’t a tragedy.
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I wouldn’t care at all- in fact that is what he should do. I would have played him WPT this year anyway
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I think they had thoughts of putting him in WP in the off-season when they hired a Venezuelan manager.
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his numbers suggest he has worn down. I really expect strong strength and condition off season for him.
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Franco’s AA numbers are no officially worse than his A+ numbers:
OPS: .922 vs. .923
wRC+: 153 vs. 157
Still excellent, but falling fast. Let’s see how he handles it.
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maybe his AA numbers have just normalized.
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I think thats accurate.
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Where in the world in Cesar Hernandez?
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Injured. He was hurt a bout a week ago.
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Wrist injury. No timetable for return, was last I saw.
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Where in the world is Jan Hernandez?
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Saw him at the field last week but he was in warm ups, not a uniform. He hasn’t played since last Wednesday. It could just be a matter of spreading some ABs around. GCP has a big roster
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Where is the world is Keith Hernandez?
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Last seen on a Seinfeld episode I think.
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But McDowell was the second spitter before he was traded in the Dykstra/Samuel trade…
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Crawford with 27 games and 118 PAs after today. Could we have honestly expected more out of him to this point?
Avg: .366
OBP: .458
SLG: .495
OPS: .953
K%: 15.2
BB%: 14.4
SBs: 10 (/14)
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Everything as advertised.
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I used to say that Quinn had the highest ceiling in the organization. Scratch that, Crawford has the highest ceiling. He’s already a four tool prospect and if he fills out and turns doubles into homers (as I expect him to), he’s a five tool guy and a possible future top 10 prospect in baseball. Best first round pick for the Phillies since Cole Hamels – I expect his rise through the system to be spectacular.
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The guy I want to debate ceiling against with Crawford is Sandberg, but Crawford is a way safer prospect (and you bet it will be a fun offseason debate). Crawford lacks a lot of flash because his two weakest tools are the sexiest (power and speed). Definitely agree on everything else.
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Crawford is like our own personal Derek Jeter. Very, very exciting.
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Crawford has been outstanding. We need to add more Top 20 (or Top 10) picks like him.
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don’t worry we will.
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Hopefully not too many more!
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have there been any reports on his glove? I assume everything is good there – else we would have heard of concerns.
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I have heard nothing but rave reviews about the glove
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His defense was terrific when I saw him. He made some tough plays look easy, showed excellent range and made some Brandon Phillips-like sidearm backwards flips from behind second base to get forces. No I DID NOT compare him to Brandon Phillips.
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I never expected this type of offense from him when leading up to the draft the talk was that he was only the ‘top’ prep SS because it was a weak class and that there were some questions about whether his offense was up to the level of his defensive ability.
Which obviously scared me because we’ve seen the Phillies sign a lot of middle infielders who had a glove and no bat. He’s IMO established himself as the Phils #3 prospect just based off his GCL and on the fact you can legitimately say he’ll stick at SS. There’s too much up in the air with Quinn.
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I love seeing Hewitt and Valle bat back to back. On a related note, if i ever discover a black hole i will name it the Hewitt-Valle black hole.
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Admittedly, I don’t always have time to read all the comments on this site, though I really enjoy them. Apologies if this is repetitive, but a name that doesn’t get much mention who has really turned it on is Herlis Rodriguez. When I was in Florida in late June/early July, Herlis was not getting much of any playing time (a pinch hit appearance here and there). He seemed to take it all in stride and keep working hard. Suddenly, he is an everday outfielder (as much as an everyday player as you can be in the GCL), and batting leadoff with an average well over .400. What this leads to, who knows? Just making an observation.
Now is about the time when someone bursts my bubble and says he’s way too old for the GCL, and his peripherals aren’t good, there are 5 things wrong with his swing, and he can’t hit the curve…
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He firmly is in the category of prospects just off the Top 30 that classify as “interesting”. A guy to keep your eye on to see if it continues over a long sample size. The organization likes him, and has him playing almost everyday (and bumping Sandberg to LF when he does). He has leap-frogged Knight (long shot there) and Golden (disappointing). Probably goes to Williamsport in 2014 based on the glut of OFers
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Actually he’s not old for the GCL, as he’s only a few months older than some of our most recent draftees, and his peripherals are really good right now, so you’re in the clear.
Although, he is a Phillies prospect, so when he gets a few levels higher we’ll probably find out that he swings with his feet or something.
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His swing is too leggy.
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What’s for dinner, Keith
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Looking forward to crow.
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Who is the last rookie prospect to put up numbers like Crawford?
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Just kidding here folks (thought it best to put BEFORE you see the next part)
JP Crawford .366/.458/.495
Mike Trout .360/.418/.506 (AZL stats from 2009)
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Nice Comp. Let’s hope Larry doesn’t read. All jokes aside but I would think JP is top 100 worthy if his numbers don’t fall off. Certainly #1 prospect in the GCL at this moment.
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Though JP Crawford is the best Phillies prospect in a long time, he will not be the #1 prospect in the GCL. Reese McGuire will certainly be rated ahead of Crawford, and I’m almost sure Austin Meadows and Trey Ball will be rated ahead of him.
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You can make a case that JP is having the better season at a premium position. Maybe McGuire sneaks ahead because he’s a catcher but Meadows ahead would mean more projection and draft bias.
This assumption is based on a snapshot of results to date. But JP is a strong candiate for #1 GCL and back end of the top 100.
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It’s always been said that they don’t look at numbers to determine rankings in the GCL. Draft position and future projection will have much more of an impact than results.
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Reese McGuire is is the last rookie prospect to put up numbers like Crawford.
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He may mean what Phillies prospect has ever put up numbers like that in the GCL, not sure.
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My question was Phillies related. I’m trying to remember the last impactful season like JP in the GCL.
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Biddle’s ERA looked bad (4.32), but that was driven by some bad BABIP and strand rates. A 2.43 BB/9 11.07 K/9 and 2.51 FIP was a great debut.
The old signing rules made it really difficult for top HS talent to sign in time to put up good GCL numbers
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That’s a good point about the signing rules.
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Singleton hit .290 / .395 / .440 in the GCL in 2009, with 15/11 BB/K and a .150 ISO.
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