Box Score Recap – 8/2/2013

Box Score Recap

Big night from Zach Green – 3-4 with 2HR. Just a double short of The Big Wheel. Sam Hiciano with his third bomb in three days. I’d say he’s locked in. Read our friend Mitch Rupert’s fine article on the subject (and notes on team basestealing). Jesse Biddle pitched better than he has lately – 5IP – 3R on 5H, 2 HR, (including one to a certain guy who’s about to be suspended for a pretty long while), 2BB and 6K. Threw about 62% for strikes. Much improved over his last two turns. After on oh-fer on Wednesday, Harold Martinez has three hits in his last 2 games. Joes Pujols with another HR, a 3-hit game for JPC, and another scoreless outing for Ricky Bielski, while Denton Keys had what you hope, for him, is a forgettable performance. Avert your eyes.

And Larry Greene, ever stylish, wearing that Golden Sombrero on Friday. It’s quite the fashion statement.

Sorry I’m not going to get the graphic up right now. Maybe this afternoon. Until then, click through for yourselves and enjoy the discussion.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130802

 

68 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 8/2/2013”

  1. I’m still surprised by the lack of publicity about Severino Gonzalez, i know his fastball is shaky, but he’s been pitching in a video game so far.

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  2. It’s great to see Jose Pujols coming around. After flirting with the low .100s for a while, he’s nearing the Mendoza line and OPSing .876 in his last ten. His BB rate is also double digits (10.5%), although his K rate is too high (25%).

    JPC is the man.

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    1. Mike – was standing right next to Pujols earlier this week. Literally a few inches away. Big boy – and not unorthodox at all. Lots of projection there

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  3. I think this is still a good place to talk about Ethan Martin hm? Early on he was locating pitches much better than I expected. The last couple innings were more in line with what I thought we’d see. Overall I was pretty impressed by his talent, since it was the first time I’ve seen him pitch, but once his fastball dropped off from sitting 95 to sitting 92, any mistake really got hammered. That McCann HR though, I don’t know how he hit it out.

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    2. Overall, seemed like his performance was shouting out “I’m a very good back of the bullpen reliever.” I suppose you have to give him every chance to start but I almost wish this was a different scenario in which they called him up to the bullpen threw him into the fire and left him there if he succeeded.

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      1. I’m just not in a hurry to cut off his value like that. Sure, he could definitely end up in the bullpen but I don’t think there’s a rush to get him there. Especially this year, it’s not like he’s gonna help us down the stretch and get us into the playoffs.

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    3. Last night was the first time I had seen him pitch. I did not watch the full game, but here were my thoughts:

      1) Early on, his fastball was in the 95+ range and really seemed to explode. There were several swing and misses. He also showed a nice curve on several occasions, getting Uggla to look bad (although, not sure what that really says), and getting Upton to chase a few as well.

      2) He was missing the target many times by a foot+. Early on at least, his 95+ allowed him to get away with these mistakes. He got ahead 0-2 several times, but his next 2 pitches would miss the zone by a foot or more. If you want to get a big-leaguer out with consistency, the ball needs to be 3 inches off the plate – not a foot+.

      In my expert opinion (ha) – keep him out there as a starter. Yes, he needs to improve, but he showed an upside that intrigues me.

      (now – for the downer part – as I was watching him, I could not help but think of Jeff Juden – goof fastball, but lacking real command of that fastball) I think we all will be disappointed if that is where Martin ends up.)

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    1. Nice find Anonymous – I’m equally excited about the recap of his defensive highlights as I am about his two homers.

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  5. Anyone know anything about Herlis Rodriguez? ..he’s opening some eyes in the GCL and he just turned 19.. any info is appreciated.

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      1. A lot of players have found the fountain of youth against our pitching. This has been a very weak year on the farm for pitching. Injuries, guys just not pitching well, a recent draft emphasis on position players.

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  7. Here’s the thing about the Phils offense – its not that they can’t win with Ryan Howard or Michael Young or heck even lousy Delmon Young somewhere in the lineup, its that we have guys like Rollins hitting leadoff and had Howard hitting cleanup and D Young hitting 5th or 6th.

    What I did below was slot the current players under contract for next year in the lineup where they belong at this point in their career, ignoring how much money they make, what they want, etc. Here’s my take:

    1 Revere CF
    2
    3 D Brown RF
    4
    5
    6 Ruf LF
    7 Howard 1B
    8 Rollins SS
    9 Hamels P

    One could probably argue Rollins could hit 2nd and be okay, allowing Asche / Frandsen / Franco to hit 8th to start next year, although I believe Franco will start at AAA. I’m not convinced Asche or an Asche / Frandsen combo is ready to hit 2nd but could be.

    Assuming Howard is a part of this team, which he will be, it leaves the Phils with the need to fill the 2, 4, and 5 spots in the lineup from 2B, C, and 3B, or find an upgrade to Ruf in LF and slide someone else down to the 6 hole. Because it will not be cheap to find a 4 and 5 hitter in free agency, I would also support replacing Rollins with Galvis and using that money to acquire another bat, assuming Rollins could be convinced to waive his no trade.

    I believe the plan that gets this offense back to an above average state in 2014 is as follows:

    1 Sign Brian McCann – understand this will be a risk at his age and the length of deal he’ll command, but there aren’t great options and he loves hitting at CBP, and I’d slide him into the middle of the order.

    2 Re-sign Utley, assuming Cano either isn’t available or his demands are ridiculous. So yeah, re-sign Utley. I’d hit him 2nd at this point in his career, not 3rd or 4th.

    3 Depending on the performance of Asche, Franco, and Ruf the remainder of this year, consider the following: Franco at 3B to start 2014, move Asche to LF to platoon with either Ruf, or a more significant upgrade like Morse as an example. Most likely for me is an Asche/Frandsen platoon next year at 3B, and Morse or comparable in LF, leaving Ruf as a bench player and part time 1B.

    4 Trade Rollins and make Galvis the everyday SS.

    5 Allow Ruiz, M Young, Kratz, D Young, M Martinez, and Nix to walk, trade or non tender Mayberry.

    Lineup would look like this:

    1 Revere CF
    2 Utley 2B
    3 Morse LF
    4 D Brown RF
    5 McCann C
    6 Asche / Frandsen 3B
    7 Howard 1B
    8 Galvis SS
    Bench: Rupp, Frandsen, C Hernandez, Ruf, LH 5th OF

    Or:

    1 Revere CF
    2 Utley 2B
    3 Franco 3B
    4 D Brown RF
    5 McCann C
    6 Morse / Asche LF
    7 Howard 1B
    8 Galvis SS
    Bench: Rupp, Frandsen, C Hernandez, Ruf, Asche

    Not sure that the Phils have any bats other than Franco that project to be middle of the order bats for at least another 2 years. Many guys in the lower minors that could become that – but those are all high risk. So I believe the Phils need to go out and acquire at least one big time bat like McCann so that Howard can slide much lower in the order. His production this year would be okay for a 7 place hitter, and Utley’s numbers play well as a 2 hole hitter.

    Thoughts?

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    1. Much of this makes sense. I’ve already stated I only want McCann if they don’t need to forfeit the pick.

      But I don’t really see replacing Rollins with Galvis as part of a plan to upgrade the lineup. Yeah, i get that you would spend the money elsewhere. but Rollins doesn’t make that much. And the big addition here is McCann, who they could sign without dropping Rollins’ salary.

      Moot point as Rollins isn’t waiving his no-trade rights. Don’t like Morse either, or Asche in LF. Franco, as you say yourself, is going to be in AAA next year (and IMO should be).

      Assuming that they do sign McCann, and that Franco is in AAA, this is really not bad:

      1 Revere CF
      2 Utley 2B
      3 D Brown RF
      4 McCann C
      5 Ruf LF
      6 Asche 3B
      7 Howard 1B
      8 Rollins SS

      That’s really not a bad lineup, quite a step up from this season’s lineup.

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      1. Not sure Ryne Sandberg…assuming like most he is the manager in 2014…will put Howard in the 7-hole. Ruf to 7-hole and Howard bumped up to customary clean-up or 5-hole. Just a hunch.

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        1. VOR, he may end up changing your mind on that. I’ve been a skeptic of the LF case for quite awhile, albeit to a lesser extent than you have because I think more highly of his potential as a hitter. But, with the usual SS caution, I think the evidence is starting to mount that he might be okay there. And certainly for this team at this point, with a HUGE corner OF hole, he may be the best (at least) short term option.

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            1. I don’t know if you saw my more extended comments on the other thread. The K rate has been headed down (is now actually just under 30% after last night); 30% is still high but (barely) in the range of the manageable IF he keeps his power and BBs up, and I think there’s a decent chance he lowers it further given recent trends. Yes, SSS, but OTOH the minor league performance suggests perhaps a slightly lower K rate.

              Even regressing the BABIP (to .330), you end up with a line that would make him the third best hitting LF this year. Now, I’m NOT predicting he’ll do that, but even regressing the BABIP AND assuming a further drop off from there, you have a guy who could be a well above average regular in left field if his defense is merely adequate. We have 125 PA; still not a huge sample, but look at the K rate and of course the ISO and tell me there might not be something there?

              Now, if you want to ask me what has – tentatively – turned my position on Ruf around? (MInd you, I was always a little more optimistic about the hitting than some people.) Two things:

              (1) The BB rate/plate discipline that he’s exhibited, and
              (2) A number of pieces of evidence about his OF defense, none of which means much by themselves, but the cumulative effect of which is to make me think he might be more of a minus 0.5 WAR left fielder, or to be conservative minus 1.0 WAR, than a minus 2.0 WAR left fielder. If true, that’s a huge difference.

              Again, I am PROBABLY still overly optimistic, but for a team short on talent at the moment and with a huge corner OF hole, it just seems crazy not to see what he can do in the last 52 games.

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            2. Should have been “BB rate” not “K rate” in the last sentence of the second paragraph, obviously.

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      3. Larry – agree 100% about the draft pick and McCann, would also try to pay more $ per year to him to make it a shorter deal as I do think ToJo will be an everyday C in another 2 years.

        Also, don’t disagree about Rollins, I could go either way. However, if the $11M along with other money would allow the Phils to add Garza I’d rather have Garza and Galvis vs just Rollins.

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      4. I live in Atlanta, so I had to watch the Braves feed in the game last night. There were 2 stats that they mentioned that kind of hit me hard.

        1) The Phillies ERA is the 2nd worst in the NL – 4.27.

        2) The Phillies are averaging 3.78 runs per game (which is about a third of a run less than the league average). If I recall the stat, the Phillies are on pace for the lowest run per game output since the 88 Phillies.

        Rumor has it that if you cannot pitch well, and you cannot score runs, you aren’t going to win many games. When I saw the lineup last night – it made me think of the teams from the late 80’s.

        With the lineup that Larry mentions above, I think I would prefer a Ruf/Howard platoon (at some point, you cannot keep running Howard out there against lefties). I would prefer there to see a RH bat patrolling left field on a regular basis. I said this in another thread, but sell off M. Young for salary relief, and use the ~$5MM in savings to help improve our team for next year.

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      5. That is a little improvement; but I would rather move Ruf up to 3 or 4, not totally based on merit, but to break up those lefties. Six!

        We might get that protected pick; we’re sitting at 9 now.

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        1. I think we can get up to 5 by seasons end, at least 4 is also in reach, and if the moron amaro keeps bringing up players like minor, damm we can get first pick.

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      6. I would consider Nelson Cruz for RF, leaving Brown in LF. With the whole Biogenesis thing and his age, he’s likely to be had on a 2-3 year deal at the most. He’s a RH bat that would balance things out well. Ruf could be an extra LF who platoons with Howard against lefties at 1B. (Yes, Howard won’t be happy with such an arrangement, or being dropped in the lineup. Oh well.)

        Revere
        Utley
        Brown
        Cruz
        McCann
        Rollins
        Howard/Ruf
        Asche

        With Hamels/Lee/Gonzalez/Halladay (bring him back on an incentive-laden low risk deal)/Kendrick, that’s a team that could compete for a playoff spot in 2014.

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        1. And even if the pick isn’t protected, I’d sign McCann. He’d be a perfect fit for a team trying to bridge between it’s old core and what it hopes will be a younger crop of players far down the pipeline.

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          1. No, you have to continue the gradual rebuild the right way with primo draft signees. We added Crawford this year, we should get an even better prospect next summer. You can’t afford to get impatient and go for the quick fix. Add McCann and we still aren’t going to post-season in 2014. McCann is 30 next year and will be signing for a big, many years contract. Catchers can decline rapidly. There are going to be multiple bad seasons on whatever deal McCann signs. Thinking one season at a time and going for the FA fix is what got us into the present mess.

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            1. Yadier Molina’s 5-year, $75 million extension started during his age 30 season. McCann will be the same age when his new contract begins, and that deal should be the benchmark for whatever McCann receives. Even if you gave him a six year deal, the final year is his age 35 season. I think that’s worthy of a seven-time all star and five-time Silver Slugger at a premium position where there is no logical replacement even close to ready, even if you see some decline toward the tail end.

              And why wouldn’t adding McCann and Cruz make this team a postseason contender? You’ve still got two proven aces and strong rotation starters one through five, and while the bullpen is a weakness, it can be fixed. You say this is a “thinking one season at a time” philosophy. It’s not. Keep on drafting, try to build the system, but add pieces to the big club so you can gradually add prospects through attrition. That’s how winning franchises do it. Yes, losing a first round pick would suck, but five years of Brian McCann would likely do a hell of a lot more for this organization than whatever player was available with that mid-first round pick.

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            3. Why? Because he hurt his knee? By that logic, you could say Bryce Harper is breaking down.

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        2. You may be right about Cruz versus Ruf. I hope they keep him in left field for the rest of the year, though, because another 53 games will go a long way to answering the questions about Ruf’s ability to be a regular in LF. There’s probably at least a 50% chance that my positive comments in the other thread will end up looking pretty bad by the end of the year.

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          1. I went to the game 8/3 Ruf looked better than I expected. He had trouble with one ball but he went a long way to try, very long . Another 53 games and winter should polish him up.

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          2. I saw Ruf live in ST and it’s fairly amazing how much he has improved in the field. If he can be slightly below average there, he may be able to stick.

            One more thing about Ruf, if you’ve watched the games carefully, it quickly becomes evident that he consistently has the best at bats on this team, including Chase Utley. Not sometimes, but virtually every game. It’s not entirely a coincidence that he has a very long on base streak going. My sense is that he is very close to a big time power break out with the bat because the power’s there, the plate discipline is there, the balance and plate coverage is there. He just needs to wait on breaking pitches a bit better and get a tiny bit more loft in his swing.

            As for Cody Asche,let’s be patient, he’s struggling at first at every level – they need to stick with him and see how things look in a couple of weeks. Certainly, his fielding, while not perfect, shows some promise.

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            1. When you have seen Ibanez (poor range steady glove, average arm), Pierre (good range, poor arm, steady glove), Burrell (poor range, steady glove, good arm), you have to think that Ruf will at least be servicaeable in LF. His range due to his speed will be below average, but other aspects should be adequate.

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            3. Very true about Ruf’s ABs – he works some deeps counts and generally makes the pitcher throw strikes, something only a couple other Phillies are consistently capable of (Brown and Utley). Overall, Ruf has a good approach at the plate and probably has the most professional ABs on the team. He does struggle with the breaking ball though.

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      7. That is definitely not an elite line up but better than what they put out there now. A lefty specialist would love this line up. You just need to get past McCann and Ruf.

        How would they get Rollins to accept a demotion to 8th? I also think it is more realistic to see Howard batting 5th then possibly demoted.

        1 Revere
        2 Utley
        3 Brown
        4 McCann
        5 Howard
        6 Ruf
        7 Rollins
        8 Asche

        It is a more balanced line up but I do not understand why RAJ has so many lefties on this team. Its as if he wants to have the first team to field an all lefty line up (including SS) and all lefty rotation.

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        1. Rollins has no say in the matter. What’s he gonna do, demand a trade? That would be the best case scenario.

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  8. its also good to see Knapp behind the dish for williamsport. Signs that his arm is feeling better.

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  9. Repeating my last comment with numbers updated/fixed:

    There are 10 players 20 years old or younger with at least 100 PAs in AA this year. The top 5 by wRC+:

    Maikel Franco (163)
    Xander Bogaerts (153)
    Javier Baez (140)
    Miguel Sano (136)
    Domingo Santana (127)

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    1. Santana seems the odd one out in this grouping. Top four were Futures guys, if not mistaken, and ranked fairly high by most pollsters.

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      1. Santana’s also the odd man out in another respect: He’s the only one without an unsustainably high BABIP or ISO.

        Just an interesting comparison.

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        1. I can’t say I’ve heard of an unsustainably high ISO before. What would make Santana’s more likely to have a consistently high ISO than Sano or Franco?

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          1. That comment was in reference to Baez and Sano, who are sporting .300/.350 ISOs.

            Usually ISOs over .300 are the result of an abnormally high HR/FB rate, and you can expect some regression.

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    2. I don’t mean this as a knock on Franco (or on you – it’s an interesting list), but I’m not sure how much it tells us. We KNOW that the numbers are great. We KNOW that performing that well in AA at that age is special.

      But some people seem to think that the numbers are ALL that count. The fact is that (a) there are SS issues, and aspects of his AA performance that are unsustainable, (b) the approach IS problematic, (c) the swing MAY BE problematic, or may not, but we won’t know for certain at least till a significant number of AAA PA, and maybe not until the majors.

      Now, weighed against that you do have a VERY impressive age/level performance. No one is predicting that Franco is going to be a bust, even his biggest critic Keith Law. But (a) he does have some things to work on, and (b) there is, as with any minor league player,but maybe more so in Franco’s case, uncertainty as to just where he’ll end up as a hitter. But fortunately it is uncertainty at a high level – he’s most likely going to be a good major league hitter – the question is, just HOW good?

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      1. Oh, I agree. I’m reasonably concerned about Franco’s low BB rate, and scouting reports of a late load and barring. The low BB rate could be a consequence of his swing, or it could be his approach. I’m also concerned that he’s a very slow runner, and wonder whether he will stick at 3B as he ages and maybe loses quickness.

        But the numbers are indeed amazing. Hitting like he is in AA at his age is truly special. 160 PAs is a small sample, but it’s not THAT small, and he’s hit .321 / .361 / .574 in 438 PAs altogether this year, which is definitely not a small sample. Even if I included 21 year olds in that list, there’s nobody above him, and the next is Christian Yelich at 153.

        Quite simply, given the numbers he’s put up at his age at this level, I’m ready to say he’s talented enough to succeed until proven otherwise. Yeah, maybe he’ll need to rework his swing before he makes it, but based on how he’s doing with a bad swing, I think he’ll be able to make the adjustment when the time comes.

        I was also pointing out Santana on that list, but that’s another story.

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        1. Yeah, Franco clearly has enough baseball talent that I am reasonably confident he can make adjustments at the major league level. The fact that there aren’t really any statistical red flags other than the low walk rate makes me confident that he can be a really good player in a couple of years.

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  10. How long until Dugan is a corner outfield option in the big leagues? He seems to have fully adjusted to double A pitching.

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    2. Is it possible that RAJ’s long term goal is to have an all LH hitting line up and pitching staff? He’s almost there. 🙂
      I have no idea why they are unable to identify RH bats. Not sure if I remember this correctly but I think that Michael Taylor was the last RH outfielder that was a AA+ prospect.

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        1. I have only started to follow this site again after like 3 years of not watching much baseball. It seems like I picked a good time to take a break.

          I was only talking about AA+ outfield prospects that batted RH.

          I’m guessing that you did not mean to respond to me.

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      2. RAJ has already stated he doesn’t have a long term plan. At this point, if he understands the difference between a LH hitter and a RH hitter I would be surprised.

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      3. If RAJ collects all the good LH pitchers, then our LH lineup will never have to face a good lefty. Our LHP will be good, even against RH hitters, because it is the only time in the season that those RH hitters will face a good LHP. It will be like face a knuckleballer in the degree of novelty. RAJ needs to tier our lefties. Good ones to the majors. Less good get stashed in AAA and AA, just to keep them off the market. If another teams wants a lefty, it will have to meet our price.

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    1. It only seems that way, because he has hit some HR recently. His best month, by far, was June. His SLG has held up since then, but his OBP has plummeted. He’s actually batting less than .100 for August, although his extreme SSS August OPS is about at his season average. The guy has ferocious splits.

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      1. Sorry, meant his July OPS is about at his season average. Obviously his August OPS is crap, but SSS.

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