Box Score Recap – 8/1/2013

Box Score Recap

Happy Ethan Martin Day, everyone! Raise your hand if your significant other questioned why you would so very much need to watch a game of a team you unequivocally stated two days ago was a lost cause. *raises hand*

Anyone who cares about W-L records in the minors, (or at all, really), take a look at Seth Rosin’s line from last night, and tell me why you care he got the “L”. Rosin’s had a pretty nice year. He limits walks, but doesn’t strike out enough guys – around 6.7/9. His GB rate of 41% (per firstinning.com), is not as strong as you’d like for a guy like that. To me, he’s destined for the bullpen, where he excelled in 2012 for the Giants, albeit as a 23-yr-old in A+. It’s probably worth letting him continue to start and hope he can find more sink and get a ton of groundballs or more life on something and get more Ks. He’s built to last, at 6’6″/25olbs, so he could be a workhorse starter if he can miss more bats or induce more weak contact.

Elsewhere, a nice night from Nic Hanson – 8 strong innings. Sam Hiciano with his second HR in as many days – he was last year’s “guy to watch” in the DSL boxes, and he’s sticking at WIL so far in somewhat limited action. Mitch described him as having had a wrist injury for a while, so now that he’s back, it’s nice to see his power hasn’t been completely sapped. And two doubles from Malquin Canelo – speaking of which, be sure to check out @Longenhagen’s post on the Crosscutters http://crashburnalley.com/2013/08/01/longenhagen-scouts-williamsport-gonzalez-updates-bites-from-reading/

Good info on a bunch of guys, Canelo included, plus Rios, Cozens, Pullin, Green, Knapp, plus  more on MAG and other notes.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130801

8-1-13 boxscores

64 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 8/1/2013”

  1. Is Nic Hanson legit? Need some young arms in lower levels to start producing some results.
    Two hits for Dugan. Hes gotta be in their top 10, right?

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    2. With a good August, he has to be included in the backend of the top 10 at the very least.

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      1. He’s one of the few guys that looks like he can be a regular at the major league level. Backend of top 10 with good august is all that gets him?

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        1. Still striking out too much, and he was old for A+, and a little old for AA.

          I habe him behind Franco, Biddle, Crawford, Quinn, Tocci, and Joseph for sure, and probably Martin, Morgan, and Watson. So probably #11.

          Which of those guys do you bump for him?

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            2. Not counting Gonzalez yet until he actually plays somewhere in the states. Has he even passed his physical and signed officially yet?

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          2. I’m with you in terms of where I’d place him, and he is still a long way from being someone who you would project to be a regular, but the odd thing is that his K rate in AA is acceptable. Not maybe good enough given his peripheral skills, but even if he becomes a major league regular, the 17.5% rate in AA is probably about as good as you can expect going forward. The odd thing about his AA performance is that his BB rate plummeted. His ISO is also down a bit, but much less so. His BABIP is also down to a more realistic .324, but that’s just regression to the mean.

            The path to a regular position for him in the majors – a narrow one – is, it seems to me, getting his BB rate back where it was in A+, adding a little power, and being able to play a solid right field. That’s still not a star, but a decent regular, which is better than what they have in RF now. But even if he develops into that guy (and I wouldn’t predict that it wil happen, he has less than a 25% chance of that happening IMO),, he”ll need at least another season to do so.

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            1. Smaller sample in AA, and since his K and BB both dropped there, I’m guessing he’s working on being more aggressive. BB/K ratio plunged moving up, and obviously power and BABIP are both down.

              We’ll see how he does with more time in AA. I’m especially interested in what his BB/K does.

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          3. Joseph and Watson have shown very little this season and have been injured. Morgan has also been injured and not come close to matching his 2012. I could see Dugan as high as 5 or 6. He was old for A+, but really not all that old for AA and he’s done well in AA. He’s now one of the few athletic guys with really good stats. He is looking like he can be a solid major league starter in a couple years. I think I’ll be putting Tocci or Dugan 5 and the other 6. I agree on Franco, Biddle, Crawford, Quinn, I can visualize each of those guys being solid major leaguers. Quinn is longer odds than the other 4 as is Tocci.

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          4. If you mean old for AA in that he didn’t get there until he was almost done with his age 22 season, then okay, but I don’t think he’s old for the level just because he has a birthday next month. That said, #12 in the system seems about right.

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            1. I said “a little” old, because most prospects reach AA before the age at which he reached it, and most of his success the last two years has been against younger opposition.

              But yeah, if he keeps doing well at AA then age won’t be as much a strike against him.

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            2. Dugan was old for Clearwater, but he is not old for Reading. This is the level he should be playing, as a HS draftee from ’09. That said, I don’t see the great prospect numbers at AA, that some here have referenced. 6/1 K/BB isn’t good, but otherwise he is holding his own at an age appropriate level.

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  2. Adam Morgan with a longer and more effective outing last night. Was he throwing in the low 90’s still? If anyone attended the game can you give us an update?

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        1. It’s not *that* slow. I expect in the off-season Morgan has shoulder surgery and misses all of next season when he could have had it done a few months ago. Hopefully the ‘rest’ and then resumption of baseball activities and now pitching didn’t make anything worse.

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          2. Shoulder surgery is not elbow surgery, guys don’t routinely come back from them. You always avoid shoulder surgery if at all possible.

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      2. Was only one mentioned in Longenhagen’s report. Could be fatigue (he has a lot of arm strength to build back up) being unable to reach back for it. Every other mention of his rehab has him back in the low-90s.

        The concern of course is that it wasn’t fatigue or a fluke and that the extended outing reagrivated something

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        1. Could well be that. Also likely a post-injury fear of throwing as hard as he can. Reports on being back in the low-90s on rehab could be deceiving. That might be what he peaked at, while having trouble sustaining high 80s for many pitches.

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      3. He was throwing around 88-90 most of the game touching 91. He looked a lot like Joe Savery with better breaking stuff (yeah, I know, ugh). We need to give him a little more time to build arm strength before we pass judgment but if he continues to pitch like this (and it can’t be fixed with surger), he’s a back of the rotation starter and out of the top 10, but let’s give it a little more time.

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  3. Rosin will be a workhorse starter for a long time. His gb rate is fine and when I’ve seen him many of the fly balls seem to be foul balls or in the infield. I think they are probably telling him to not worry about Ks this year as much and refine his off speed . He did have 7 in 5 IP last night. I can’t wait for him to get a shot because I think he will prove he can be a solid #3 or #4. He’s only been our system one year so I think some people just haven’t seen him enough – go watch him pitch. He can be a big part of the future.

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    1. Agree for the most part. I see him as a very good 4/5..back-end guy. He has the size and durability. In almost 300 MiLB IPs his WHIP is 1.2. He turns 25 soon, so next year …maybe June..he could be called up for a spot start.
      Trouble is….the team has plenty of back-end of the rotation guys, ie Kendrick, Lannan, Pettibone and perhaps even Gonzalez to begin the 2014 season. Then there will be Morgan, if healthy, and Martin.

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    2. The issue with Rosin is that he just isn’t striking out enough guys yet as a starter. He had a nice strikout rate from the pen in 2011 and 2012 with the Giants, but since we moved him back into the rotation he hasn’t been missing bats enough.

      I think he can be a nice bullpen piece, but I’m not so hopeful about him sticking in the rotation.

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  4. Crawford now has more walks than strikeouts. And higher ISO than Larry Greene. Pujols went deep again, #4 he’s starting to show off that power he was signed for and his K rate is coming down. This GCL squad has a lot of potential. Still waiting for Hernandez and Sandberg to get going but I think they will.

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    1. Crawford is opening some eyes in a big way. He is definitely in my top 5 and might be in my top 3.

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        1. I wouldn’t say easy.

          Assuming you set Gonzalez aside, I think you can make a case for Quinn over Crawford, given that he’s two levels higher and did almost as well at Williamsport last year as Crawford is doing now in the GCL. And I love Joseph, though I acknowledge my opinion is not shared by most. I could also imagine putting Tocci there.

          If I had to pick just one, my number three would PROBABLY be Crawford at this point, but it’s pretty close in my mind between those four guys.

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          1. Quinn’s got the speed, but Crawford’s got the hit tool and the good SS D. Quinn’s bat is going to take a deduct when he moves off SS eventually (50-60% odds of that, I’d guess). Can’t put a ton on GCL SS stats, but Crawford has had the best GCL league stats for a HS kid that I can remember. Having said that I’m sure someone will point to a guy who did better. I have to slot Crawford above Quinn.

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          2. To be honest, with Crawford’s pedigree, I would have him #2, if it wasn’t for Franco just murdering two leagues this year. As I’ve stated before: Every HS player picked in the top 16 last year (2012) was a preseason top 100 player, whether they played rookie ball, or not. In my eyes, Crawford is a top tier prospect from day one, on pedigree, regardless of the numbers he is putting up in the GCL.

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            2. What could hurt his run at the top 50, is that he may only be the 4th best prospect in the GCL. Reese McGuire is doing the same thing Crawford is doing, and I’ve already seen one top 100 ranking that has Meadows ahead of McGuire. And Tre Ball will rank ahead of him, without playing.

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            3. Hmm. I think you’re right that there’s a pretty big difference in pedigree between picks 16, 26, and 36, and perhaps my brain is mistakenly categorizing Crawford as a generic “first-rounder” without appreciating this distinction.

              I would be curious to see a chart showing average career WAR by draft spot, just to put this difference into perspective.

              But for now I concede the point — I’ve put Crawford solidly #3 in my mental list.

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            4. And the numbers, even regressing the BABIP, are arguably the best of any HS first round position player so far this season.

              I don’t think there is any question he is number three at this point. Even a prolonged slump probably wouldn’t change that.

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            6. Larry, where do you have Gonzalez? Is he too old/too paid/too experienced to qualify, or are we just assuming he pitches away his prospect eligibility in August?

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  5. Jose Pujols, 17, may be making a case that he is the 2nd best prospect on the GCL team, especially if he continues in August, like he ended July.

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    1. Thats a tall order. Grullon, Hernandez, Sandberg all are close, and you have to factor in their positional value into the equation.

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      1. The way I see it, Pujols is in the same grouping with the draft picks. Pujols is hitting better than those guys and he is younger than those guys. As far as positional value: RF is just below 3B on the value chart. Sandberg has been playing a lot of LF, which is below RF. Grullon as the youngest, and the guy with the most positional value, has the lowest bar. But if Pujols outperforms those guys the rest of the way, he should be considered the better prospect.

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        1. Sandberg has played almost half his games in CF. The Phillies especially at lower levels tend to rotate CF if they have multiple players they feel are capable of playing it to keep them used to it as they move it.

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        2. —Sandberg was talked about by Marti Wolever on draft day as a CF, and then Jordan said somethin similar the following week in his drafta ssessment. So until they start talking other wise I assumed him as a CF.
          —Hernandez was mentionede as 3rd base, and has experience at ss, if something happens to JPC
          —Grullon has the most difficult task when mixing catching learning and responsibilities alonf with plate skills.
          Now if it is a matter of just hitting lines, then Pujols can be said to be the 2nd best.

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    2. Pujols is .282/.404/.538 in his last ten, and his average is creeping toward the Mendoza after hovering in the .130s for a while. His K rate is high (26.2%) but his BB rate is also solid (10.5%). There’s a lot to like here.

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    1. According to this, Franco’s AA line would translate to a .306/.325/.468 line in the majors. Not bad.

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  7. BA chat today:

    Virgil Dahl (Waterloo, Iowa): J. J.; who has more long term upside; Cory Seager, or Maikel Franco? thanks

    J.J. Cooper: Interesting question. I do think both end up as 3B and I think both could end up as guys with plus hit and plus power. I’ll say Franco, but it’s so close that I could make convincing arguments either way.

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  8. Richard Bielski. Two more scoreless innings. 4/1 KBB, rate. Tyler Viza, started and had a decent game. Crawford just being Crawford. 4 hits, a walk and a SB, in the double header.

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    1. and if RAJ hadn’t been blown out of the water by the Braves you’d have BJ Upton as the everyday CF for this year and the next 4 years at $11m per and no JP Crawford.

      It’s why I really want to see a lot of losses to get into the top-10 of the draft and protect the pick from RAJ.

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  9. Thanks a lot BradinDC for reminding me on a very special Ethan Martin Day i do not have a significant other to question my sanity.

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  10. Ethan Martin’s stuff looks so good. There’s no question about his stuff. He just needs consistent command. I look forward to him starting with the Phillies the rest of the year. (Don’t wanna jinx his first start so I knocked on wood)

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  12. I admittedly have not been tracking Martin much if at all this year and have to ask anyone who knows, does his stuff usually fade after about 3 or 4 innings? Reports were that he was hitting 97 early on and resting around 95/96 in the first two innings. Then in the third was down to about 94 and when it all blew up he was struggling to manage 91. If they’ve tracked him all year and this is commonplace, get him in the bullpen and get him some experience there.

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  13. Rickyk watching martin for first time, You can see why some on here have said he would be a back end bullpen guy, I would love to see him as a eighth inning guy the rest of these year and a sometimes closer, just to see what he can do. Paps I hope will be moved this offseason, if we eat salary he can be moved, someone would take him, dont need him on this team, what good is a closer with this poor excuse for a team,rather see martin, get a chance along with asche,But this organization has no direction, why bring up minor, over keeping rod and letting him pitch up here, minor is so bad, and almost 32, cant break a egg, just dont see the logic, they are going nowhere, use the younger kids. They arent fooling the fans into believing that they are still in the race,

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  14. There are 10 players 20 years old with at least 100 PAs in AA this year. The top 5 by wRC+:

    Maikel Franco (170)
    Xander Bogaerts (153)
    Javier Baez (150)
    Miguel Sano (136)
    Domingo Santana (124)

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    1. I haven’t posted for ages. I think the last year I actually posted was around the Pence trade. How does Santana make it as a PTBNL for Pence. Unreal. But, I hope it makes it to the show. The kid is a beast.
      Great to see Franco as #1 and I am sure glad that Wade is no longer around to school RAJ..(not 100% serious there, he did fine with the other trades)

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